The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
lostdog
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lostdog » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:20 pm

Thank you for this thread.

Watching the decline has been an adventure for sure. I admit to looking at my balance more than I should.

Staying the course as planned. We were so close to the 2 comma club and then this happened. We'll get there eventually.

Stay calm and stay the course fellow bogleheads.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by 9-5 Suited » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:33 pm

It’s a little surreal experiencing my first real life test of something I always knew would happen, but can’t fully visualize because it’s hard to predict emotions. So far, so good. A twinge of regret every now and then perhaps, but generally 90% of the time feeling like doing nothing but what I’ve always done. I can see how the light gets to the end of the tunnel.

But man, it really stings knowing the wealth that’s lost in a matter of weeks. Even as I stay firmly on course, that feels bad. Had just earned the two comma badge like 3 months ago, so safe to say nowhere near it now.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 pm

Flextruck wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:03 pm
Algorithms and hedge funds determine the market's general direction. That's what frustrates me, my discipline will be usurped by big money hedge funds or some fancy algorithms.

I'll probably lose 25k-30k today, but I'm hanging in there like an Alabama tick.
If you don't trade, the algorithms can't take your money. These aren't your prices.

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oneleaf
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by oneleaf » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:14 pm

Independent George wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:50 pm
It's amazing what going through 2008 does to your perspective. Right now, I feel not only calm, but kind of incredulous at the panic.
I know what you mean. And I would never downplay what is happening in the world right now, but when it comes to the markets and investments, I still very much remember how people felt during the GFC. People now tend to downplay 2008 like it was inevitable that we were gonna get out of it, but I still very vividly remember very smart people saying:
- We may likely hit S&P500 at a level around 300.
- Very close to the bottom (S&P 500 in high 600's), I still remember Larry Swedroe saying it is likely still going to get much worse.
- The REIT industry might go to zero.
- It would be an L-shaped recovery which will take over a decade to get to previous high's.

Can't say this time is or isn't different, but it's nice to remember the pessimism people felt then.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by vipertom1970 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:03 am

JD13 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:55 pm
I'm also in the same boat. Lost around 250K in total. On top of that I messed up my TLH. AND on top of that my bond ETFs are also going down. Staying the course is getting really hard. Not sure what to do
Jd13, please look at "Here We Go Again Thread" then look at he graph from the DOW to see all the problems we had and look at the end results after 10 years. I survived 2000, 2008 and my gains in 2019 was +375% by staying the course and just deep DCA. I am 50yo, still holding almost 100% equities and even at a negative $540,000 this year (OUCH!) but I am still buying. Stay the course, keep on DCA and see big dip as blue light special.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=305706

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:18 am

I'm so bored of all these market timing threads.
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tony5412
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by tony5412 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:28 am

Someone posted this in the comments section of an article from another website and I thought I'd re-post it here. This guy must be a Boglehead.

---------------------------------------------

For average folks the best thing to do is to dollar cost average into your retirement accounts, steady as she goes. Keep an emergency fund in a savings or money market account. Do not try and day trade this market or sell everything off, you will make mistakes.

This is a healthcare emergency, concern yourself with keeping yourself and your family safe.

The market will sort itself out in a few years and then might be a good buying opportunity for those who have extra money then.

In the meantime if you do have extra money keep it in cash, pay down your debts, pay a little extra on the mortgage if you have one. Don't be tempted to play the market, it crushes people with much more money and much more experience than you.

Play it safe and live to fight another day.
Last edited by tony5412 on Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by AerialWombat » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:31 am

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:18 am
I'm so bored of all these market timing threads.
+1

I think it’s time for a couple weeks away from the forum for me. Just way too much noise, and I can only type ”I bought in today” and “real estate is great, but it’s a job” so many times. :beer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by alpine_boglehead » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:04 am

It's springtime. Time to prepare the tomato and sweet pepper seedlings. And it's one of the four best seasons to stay calm and stay the course.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:15 pm

Norsky19 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:45 am
When the market tanks like this...I'm assuming the Target Date retirement funds will eventually do a rebalance??? Sell off bond and buy more stock? So this seems like a pretty decent time to own a TDR fund....Let it do its thing. Thoughts?
Actually, they rebalance on a daily basis.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by ksualum » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:23 pm

alpine_boglehead wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:04 am
It's springtime. Time to prepare the tomato and sweet pepper seedlings. And it's one of the four best seasons to stay calm and stay the course.
Ha! Spent all day yesterday getting my onions, spinach and kale in the ground . . . .

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by mhalley » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:29 pm

Max:
Graham Stephan has a YouTube channel where he talks about investing in real estate and he is pretty much a boglehead. This post discusses staying the course. Not as good as the meditation, but it’s ok.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz9ZFEUlcbM
O, and a link to the meditation if you haven’t seen it:
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2019/08/17/a-gu ... -dropping/

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:03 pm

Rowan Oak wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:08 am
max12377 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:34 am
Any folks know where we can find some good Jack Bogle type podcasts or YouTube videos. I found I prefer to listen to optimists and ignore the “sky is falling” noise that permeates the media. Just as this post has been a refuge; I want to fill my brain with even more calm on my morning walks.

I have much much empathy for folks that are dealing with the virus but little tolerance for “how much money did you lose”, “futures are down”, “stay the course folks are bag holders”, “ stay the course folks are fools because everyone knows xxxx” etc it seems no matter which way the market goes someone wants to come out of their hiding place and boast that they are the smart ones. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but why boast or denigrate others ? I guess it’s just human nature. For me, I picked my AA and am sticking with it - investing is simple but not easy. I will tax loss harvest when I can. I will move my 401k to vanguard so I can start Roth conversions. To each their own I say.

In a bear market I always I was more conservative. In a bull I always wish I was more aggressive. No getting around it.

So far I’ve found Dr Drew, Brian Preston, Dave Ramsey, Warren Buffett all advocate calm. Looking for more. I’m ramping up my exercise goals. I expect this will take a while to sort out so it’s important to keep our heads on straight.

On this forum I love Taylor’s posts and Toons comments. Wish I knew where Livesoft was - enjoy his posts too. It’s an RBD extravaganza after all. Many others that I enjoy -too many to mention. Lots of smart people here.

So any forum posters that we should follow - please suggest those too!

well, off for my morning walk...

Max
Have you followed HomerJ's posts? Years of very helpful advice.
And for some of the all-time best stay the course advice: Toons
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sigz » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:00 am

Gonna need this support thread - especially this week. It's going to be br00tal.

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VeganBH
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 am

Please - I need to have some confirmation, as a new-ish boglehead. Given everything we currently know/don't know - staying the course still makes sense?
Even for someone on the cusp of retirement (early 50's), with a 25:50:25 (stock: VTBLX; MM/Cash) ---- split between taxable/deferred.

Thanks for any pep talk...or, conversely, please tell me if "this time it really is different" and better bet is to run for the hills (or better financial advice). :P

Thanks! :beer
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:40 am

VeganBH wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 am
Please - I need to have some confirmation, as a new-ish boglehead. Given everything we currently know/don't know - staying the course still makes sense?
Even for someone on the cusp of retirement (early 50's), with a 25:50:25 (stock: VTBLX; MM/Cash) ---- split between taxable/deferred.

Thanks for any pep talk...or, conversely, please tell me if "this time it really is different" and better bet is to run for the hills (or better financial advice). :P

Thanks! :beer
You're only 25% stock.

Your total bond might underperform or behave in unexpected ways, but nothing major.

You have 50x.

It might be different this time or not, but you're fine, regardless.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Independent George » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am

Let's put things in perspective.

In 1945, the entire world economy was pretty much wrecked. Not just the estimated 85 million people killed (3% of the world total, most of whom being military aged men), but industry, infrastructure, and agriculture. Not only that, the entire eastern half of Europe was effectively taken off the board. Germany was cut in half, with Berlin having to be resupplied by air at one point. Would you say that this was a bigger, or smaller, disruption to society than Coronavirus? How would you say the last 75 years have gone?

But 1945 is probably not a good year for comparison; we are, after all, just a few months in. How about 1940? If you were in London in 1940, you were living under rationing and spending every night with your windows blacked out so that they didn't make an easy target for a bombing raid. Your retirement savings and the stock market were probably the last thing on your mind (and if they weren't, I'd say you were insane), but would you say that things were better, or worse, than spending your days inside, reading the internet on your tablet and trying to track your toilet paper usage?

Would it have been wise to cash out in 1940? Even in hindsight, I'd say cashing out all of your holdings would have been completely justified. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact had not yet been broken, so the Germans and Soviets had all of Europe united under one alliance. British capitulation seemed pretty inevitable. There were damned good reasons to cash out and hold on to what resources you could. If Barbarossa never happened (something the British had absolutely nothing to do with), things would indeed look very different today. Again: how have the last 80 years gone?

Let's say the worst happens in this pandemic, with 30M Americans dead, and God knows how many around the world.

Do you think the world just stops at that point? Do we go back to square one, hoarding our resources instead of building, growing, and selling things? All those airlines that are shut down today - do you think we are going to scrap all those planes for the metal? Are we going to forget all of our knowledge, and stop trying to improve things around us?

A share of a company is not a commodity that has to be consumed to be of use. The stock price is not what you get when you add up its physical assets; if it were, the price would not move. It's determined by the discounted earnings for the life of the company; prices move because of differing opinions on the potential for future revenue. Earnings will almost certainly tank for the next two quarters; do you think they will stay there for the next decade?

If not, then why do you care if the stock market drops 25%, 50%, or 75%?

My parents are in their 70s and live in the NYC area. I am worried for their sake. My stock portfolio? Meh. I'll rebalance when I hit my bands, but that's about it.

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:58 am

From Josh Brown: The one thing we know for sure
Without a doubt, the news will get worse from here. But its ability to shock us will diminish.

The economic news about the US economy was not getting better at the end of the financial crisis. But stocks stopped going down every time that bad news hit. It took a lot of pain to get to that point, but eventually, bad news fatigue had set in. This happened with regards to potential terror threats in the wake of 2001. It happened during the Asian currency crisis of 1998. It happened during the Latin American defaults of the same era. It happened during the Ebola scare of 2014. It will happen now.

You must be fully prepared for both foreboding news about the contagion’s spread and, yes, even the death rate. You must also be prepared for how bad the March economic numbers are going to be relative to February. Some of these comps are going to be so astounding that they’ll look like typos. And it’s highly doubtful that anything turns sharply higher in April, based on the fact that nearly everything under the sun has been or will be canceled other than walking the dog and surfing the web. Kroger, Costco, Amazon, Target, CVS, Walgreens, Walmart and maybe Home Depot excepted – the nesting business is booming.

But as bad as the news will be, its ability to shock us will diminish. We will reach the point of “Let me guess, sales are down this month.” The shocks – and there are many shocks still to come – will continue. But our reaction to them cannot remain at the current intensity forever. We are not going to have a 75 Vix for six straight months.

If we know one thing for sure, it is this.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:20 am

By Jason Zweig | March 13, 2020 11:00 am ET
Stocks Are in Chaos. Control the One Thing You Can.


(full article is behind WSJ paywall)
With U.S. stocks down — at their worst — around 27% in 16 trading days, investors need to get out of the prognostication business. Nobody — not epidemiologists, not government officials, not economists and certainly not market strategists — can say how large an impact the coronavirus will end up having. The optimists might be wrong; so might the pessimists.

Investing, now more than ever, is about controlling the controllable. You can’t control the markets. You can’t control the coronavirus. You can control your own behavior, although that requires making accurate, honest predictions about yourself.

Controlling the controllable doesn’t just mean shrugging off whatever is out of your power. It also means putting some calm and serious thought into what is within your power. Your future success may depend less on what markets do — and more on spending a few quiet minutes figuring out who you are as an investor.…
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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VeganBH
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:24 am

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:40 am
VeganBH wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 am
Please - I need to have some confirmation, as a new-ish boglehead. Given everything we currently know/don't know - staying the course still makes sense?
Even for someone on the cusp of retirement (early 50's), with a 25:50:25 (stock: VTBLX; MM/Cash) ---- split between taxable/deferred.

Thanks for any pep talk...or, conversely, please tell me if "this time it really is different" and better bet is to run for the hills (or better financial advice). :P

Thanks! :beer
You're only 25% stock.

Your total bond might underperform or behave in unexpected ways, but nothing major.

You have 50x.

It might be different this time or not, but you're fine, regardless.
Watchnerd: I know I can't hold you to this.....but this is the best thing I could have possibly read, 1st thing after waking up after 2 hours of sleep (and with a new market day unraveling). I've worked myself into a tizzy, from reading all the BH threads here. :shock:
Thank you for the pep talk! :beer
I empathize for everyone who feels like the ground is falling away...
Stay safe.
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by fwellimort » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:31 am

If you ever feel worried, breathe a bit, then go read 'Little Book of Common Sense Investing' by Bogle again.
Also, go read/watch some reports/talks with Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger.

By one of the greatest investors in the world (Charlie Munger)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WkpQ4PpId4
This is the third time that Warren and I have seen our holdings of Berkshire go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long-term shareholding, of the normal vicissitudes in worldly outcomes and markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stock go down by say 50%. In fact you could argue that if you are not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% 2-3 times a century, you are not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result that you are going to get, compared to the people who do have the temperament who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.
Apparently yesterday, some guy posted the same video in this forum: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=307379&p=5097012
:D

rebellovw
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by rebellovw » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:36 am

Nice thread. I was reading a few dark ones over the weekend thinking - man bogleheads can get really dark.

I'm staying the course. I'm glad I rebalanced into Total Bond Market the first of the year when things were growing daily - that got me to about 50/50 from 60/40. At the same time I moved my HSA from Total Stock Market into a Target Date Fund.

I'm now contributing about 100% into total stock market for all new 401k and HSA contributions and my wife's 401K is 50/50.

My emergency fund is very high - which I borrowed from last year for home construction - I'm now paying that back very quickly to get to the point that I like it to be at.

I've also TLH 3K last week. I may do that again but I'm a bit leery about it - since it is with Fidelity Mutual Funds in Tax account - I'll have to look into all the complications and try to avoid any wash sales. I guess I should start by making sure auto re-invest dividends is turned off.

Anyhow -staying the course.

Hope all are well.
Last edited by rebellovw on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:37 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:37 am

fwellimort wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:31 am
If you ever feel worried, breathe a bit, then go read 'Little Book of Common Sense Investing' by Bogle again.
Also, go read/watch some reports/talks with Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger.

By one of the greatest investors in the world (Charlie Munger)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WkpQ4PpId4
This is the third time that Warren and I have seen our holdings of Berkshire go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long-term shareholding, of the normal vicissitudes in worldly outcomes and markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stock go down by say 50%. In fact you could argue that if you are not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% 2-3 times a century, you are not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result that you are going to get, compared to the people who do have the temperament who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.
Apparently yesterday, some guy posted the same video in this forum: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=307379&p=5097012
:D
Yes. One of my favorites from Charlie Munger.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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VeganBH
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:41 am

Independent George wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am
Let's put things in perspective.

In 1945, the entire world economy was pretty much wrecked. Not just the estimated 85 million people killed (3% of the world total, most of whom being military aged men), but industry, infrastructure, and agriculture. Not only that, the entire eastern half of Europe was effectively taken off the board. Germany was cut in half, with Berlin having to be resupplied by air at one point. Would you say that this was a bigger, or smaller, disruption to society than Coronavirus? How would you say the last 75 years have gone?

But 1945 is probably not a good year for comparison; we are, after all, just a few months in. How about 1940? If you were in London in 1940, you were living under rationing and spending every night with your windows blacked out so that they didn't make an easy target for a bombing raid. Your retirement savings and the stock market were probably the last thing on your mind (and if they weren't, I'd say you were insane), but would you say that things were better, or worse, than spending your days inside, reading the internet on your tablet and trying to track your toilet paper usage?

Would it have been wise to cash out in 1940? Even in hindsight, I'd say cashing out all of your holdings would have been completely justified. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact had not yet been broken, so the Germans and Soviets had all of Europe united under one alliance. British capitulation seemed pretty inevitable. There were damned good reasons to cash out and hold on to what resources you could. If Barbarossa never happened (something the British had absolutely nothing to do with), things would indeed look very different today. Again: how have the last 80 years gone?

Let's say the worst happens in this pandemic, with 30M Americans dead, and God knows how many around the world.

Do you think the world just stops at that point? Do we go back to square one, hoarding our resources instead of building, growing, and selling things? All those airlines that are shut down today - do you think we are going to scrap all those planes for the metal? Are we going to forget all of our knowledge, and stop trying to improve things around us?

A share of a company is not a commodity that has to be consumed to be of use. The stock price is not what you get when you add up its physical assets; if it were, the price would not move. It's determined by the discounted earnings for the life of the company; prices move because of differing opinions on the potential for future revenue. Earnings will almost certainly tank for the next two quarters; do you think they will stay there for the next decade?

If not, then why do you care if the stock market drops 25%, 50%, or 75%?

My parents are in their 70s and live in the NYC area. I am worried for their sake. My stock portfolio? Meh. I'll rebalance when I hit my bands, but that's about it.
Thanks Independent George. I literally went from "relaxed/meh" yesterday, to loosing my you know what, after a binge of BH threads and news. Your perspective and rationale are deeply appreciated - and quite moving. We have a parent in their 80's....focusing on that, but got carried away with some pretty dire outcomes. :x

Much appreciate the support here - I finally found the right thread for me! :beer
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by cashboy » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:44 am

the seas continue to be rough at times,

and storm clouds are on the horizon,

but still staying the course.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:52 am

From fellow Boglehead Mike Piper (Oblivious Investor) today: What’s Coming Next? (And What to Do About It?)
In terms of percentage gained/lost, last Thursday (3/12) was the 5th-worst day in stock market history. (Of the four days that were worse, three were part of the 1929 crash.)

The following day, Friday, was the 9th-best day in stock market history.

If you had your money out of the market before Thursday, you looked like a market-timing genius by Thursday evening. But if you took your money out near the end of Thursday or early Friday, you have just the opposite result: you were hit by the historically-bad day and missed the historically-good day.

Jumping in and out of the market, especially during super volatile times like this, is a high stakes game.

And it’s not an easy game to win.

When I think back to early Friday morning (and as I write this, it’s Friday evening, so that wasn’t very long ago), the things on my mind were whether my wife’s workplace would soon be implementing mandatory work-from-home, whether local schools would be closing, and things of that nature. I definitely wasn’t sitting there thinking, “maybe today will be one of the best days in stock market history.” Frankly, if anything, I would have bet on a further decline...
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:00 am

Oh wow - this is a great support thread. Thank you Bogleheads!
I'm going to get my 1st cup of coffee after a fitful 2 hours sleep and read through this entire thread. I must stay away from those other threads. I know I can't....
Thanks again. Stay safe. :beer
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:11 am

The level of crazed panic expressed on this forum might be an indication we're at the bottom, but stocks are still high. I don't know what to expect but I don't think there's any hurry. I think we can predict easily the events before us, but they don't happen very fast at all. If anything the temptation for me is to rebalance much too soon. I need to relax.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:20 am

VeganBH wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:00 am
Oh wow - this is a great support thread. Thank you Bogleheads!
I'm going to get my 1st cup of coffee after a fitful 2 hours sleep and read through this entire thread. I must stay away from those other threads. I know I can't....
Thanks again. Stay safe. :beer
Also, instead of wandering through the noisy "Investing - Theory, News & General" section of the forum try going to long-time Bogleheads profile pages and read through their posts and replies. It's a great way to get their perspective.

Here's a few to start:

HomerJ
Taylor Larimore
nisiprius
pkcrafter
Toons
retiredjg
Rick Ferri
White Coat Investor
Watty
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

aaronjb_ME
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by aaronjb_ME » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:41 am

TechGuy365 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:10 am
100/0 and staying the course! I'm a true believer that during accumulation phase downturns like this just enables us to have more buying power with each paycheck contribution!
This is my philosophy as well. I've also got age and years-to-retirement working in my favor. If anything, I'll be increasing my retirement contributions.

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VeganBH
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:55 am

Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:20 am
VeganBH wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:00 am
Oh wow - this is a great support thread. Thank you Bogleheads!
I'm going to get my 1st cup of coffee after a fitful 2 hours sleep and read through this entire thread. I must stay away from those other threads. I know I can't....
Thanks again. Stay safe. :beer
Also, instead of wandering through the noisy "Investing - Theory, News & General" section of the forum try going to long-time Bogleheads profile pages and read through their posts and replies. It's a great way to get their perspective.

Here's a few to start:

HomerJ
Taylor Larimore
nisiprius
pkcrafter
Toons
retiredjg
Rick Ferri
White Coat Investor
Watty
Thank you for this gold nugget. All names I definitely recognize, respect, and have learned much from on the forum. And thanks for reaffirming a strategy which I have done in the past (that is, stalking these/other knowledgeable posters, as you've described) - obviously I've been knocked off kilter though as of late - too much time on the end of days threads! :shock:
Much appreciation! :happy
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

longterm100
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by longterm100 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 pm

I’m staying the course and surprised how im not even anxious as the markets are dropping. All I can think of is the cheap stocks I’ll be buying and how in a few years time my portfolio will look even better then before this crisis.

Of course, plenty of family time and time in the yard is keeping me focused on different things.

cheapindexer
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by cheapindexer » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:09 pm

Great thread
Thanks to BH learned I simply couldn’t stomach being 100/0 anymore

At 49 maybe 80/20 was too aggressive - but thankful for incredibly conservative college accounts and thankful for paying off student loans and making extra house payments

Thanks to Jack Bogle for telling me a thousand times to have some dry powder - or what did his say- an anchor to the windward ?

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VeganBH
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by VeganBH » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:11 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:11 am
The level of crazed panic expressed on this forum might be an indication we're at the bottom, but stocks are still high. I don't know what to expect but I don't think there's any hurry. I think we can predict easily the events before us, but they don't happen very fast at all. If anything the temptation for me is to rebalance much too soon. I need to relax.
Well, that makes two of us. We've been reballancing on the way down just a bit - very relaxed and casual like....until full panic set in last night. I went from a "So glad we chose a conservative PF with an AA we could sleep well at night" to a near full-on panic attack that we might not be able to get any cash out of the bank/MM for basic bartering amongst the masses. Oy vey. 8-)
Deep breaths....
"Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace."​ ~ Albert Sc​hweitzer

jdamo
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by jdamo » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:48 pm

I am recently retired and have studied Boglehead principles for about 1.5 yrs now....We have AA of 40%stocks (20% SP500 VFIAX and 20% intl VTIAX/60% bonds (VBTLX) with an addl 5 yr cash reserve. We have a "2 comma" portfolio. I appreciate this thread to hear from the long term BHs on staying the course. It is concerning at times seeing the markets since we "have no income and are retired". But,....We are staying the course. I also interface with Earnst and Young for financial planning advice as it is paid for by my former employer of 38 yrs and my advisor also advocates the major index fund approach, being diversified, keeping expenses low and keeping our money working fully diversified in the global economy. One may worry about it with this virus, but this thread helps and I'll bet by the end of the year(or 2) we are glad we stayed the course...and onward for future years with annual rebalancing. Thanks for the forum and the experienced long term Boglehead advisors. :sharebeer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by EnjoyIt » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:10 pm

My IPS says every quarter which worked out to 15th of March or the next available business day or if I am busy the following business day I do the following:
I add in new money to the portfolio, and evaluate for rebalancing and/or tax loss harvesting opportunities.

Today I added new moneys, I tax loss harvested and rebalanced back to somewhere near 70/30.

Feels good to do something.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters. | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm

Jim Collins (jlcollinsnh) podcast with the Mad Fientist: https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Bear markets are a normal part of investing but is this time different?

As the coronavirus COVID-19 spreads around the world, governments are struggling to limit the economic impact of the disease.

In today’s unplanned episode of the Financial Independence Podcast, JL Collins (author of The Simple Path to Wealth) joins me to talk about this stock-market crash, how it differs from previous crashes, and what you should do about it.
If you don't know who Jim Collins is, he is the author of The Simple Path to Wealth and blog https://jlcollinsnh.com/
(recorded Sunday 3/15)
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

Mr.BB
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Mr.BB » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:17 pm

The hardest part about a bear market and a possible recession is not the long term advantages of adding to your portfolio when the market is down, but being employed so you have the income to do so.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Independent George » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:30 pm

I thought about posting this in the 'Freefall' thread, but it seems more appropriate here. Right now, if I made a list of things I'm worried about, it would be (in descending order of priority):

1. The health of parents in NYC.
2. The health of my friends, co-workers, and my older neighbors.
3. My job security.
4. My own health (I'm 43, in excellent physical condition, and don't go out much, so I'm in a low-risk cohort)
5. Whether I'll get bored eating the same thing every day.
6. When my replacement hard drive will arrive so that I can get back onto my desktop computer.
7. Meeting my work deadlines
8. The performance of retirement accounts.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JAZZISCOOL » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:41 pm

Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm
Jim Collins (jlcollinsnh) podcast with the Mad Fientist: https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Bear markets are a normal part of investing but is this time different?

As the coronavirus COVID-19 spreads around the world, governments are struggling to limit the economic impact of the disease.

In today’s unplanned episode of the Financial Independence Podcast, JL Collins (author of The Simple Path to Wealth) joins me to talk about this stock-market crash, how it differs from previous crashes, and what you should do about it.
If you don't know who Jim Collins is, he is the author of The Simple Path to Wealth and blog https://jlcollinsnh.com/
(recorded Sunday 3/15)
I was JUST about to post this podcast and saw this, so, thanks for posting this! JL Collins helps to put things in perspective IMO. He also has a calming voice.

Happy to have this BH thread!

:happy

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:46 pm

My stomach hurts today. I have a fairly new bottle of tums. Going to consume some.

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MortgageOnBlack
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by MortgageOnBlack » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:50 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:17 pm
The hardest part about a bear market and a possible recession is not the long term advantages of adding to your portfolio when the market is down, but being employed so you have the income to do so.
100%. I am feeling a lot of guilt tapping into my Emergency Fund to "buy the dip". Everyone is screaming for lower stock prices, but might be forgetting that their source of income may go with them.

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:52 pm

JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:41 pm
Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm
Jim Collins (jlcollinsnh) podcast with the Mad Fientist: https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Bear markets are a normal part of investing but is this time different?

As the coronavirus COVID-19 spreads around the world, governments are struggling to limit the economic impact of the disease.

In today’s unplanned episode of the Financial Independence Podcast, JL Collins (author of The Simple Path to Wealth) joins me to talk about this stock-market crash, how it differs from previous crashes, and what you should do about it.
If you don't know who Jim Collins is, he is the author of The Simple Path to Wealth and blog https://jlcollinsnh.com/
(recorded Sunday 3/15)
JL Collins helps to put things in perspective IMO. He also has a calming voice.
I completely agree.

I have added his book The Simple Path to Wealth to my list of books to read during times like these. Another is Jack Bogle's: Little Book of Common Sense Investing.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

Mr.BB
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Mr.BB » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:54 pm

MortgageOnBlack wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:50 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:17 pm
The hardest part about a bear market and a possible recession is not the long term advantages of adding to your portfolio when the market is down, but being employed so you have the income to do so.
100%. I am feeling a lot of guilt tapping into my Emergency Fund to "buy the dip". Everyone is screaming for lower stock prices, but might be forgetting that their source of income may go with them.
I really think you're making a mistake dipping into your emergency fund to buy stocks. WillThrill81did a nice post regarding emergency funds. Your emergency fund is not to improve your wealth but to be a safety net to protect it.
Last edited by Mr.BB on Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:55 pm

FWIW, I just rebalanced $56k out of TBM and into total stock market and total international stock market to bring my AA back to target. I had hit rebalance bands a few days ago, just got around to it today. Stay the course.
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

ThankYouJack
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:05 pm

Today was another rough day market and virus wise but when things are way down, I can look at my kids (or think about a loved one) give them a hug and realize what's truly important in life. It helps me stay calm and put things in perspective.

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:45 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:55 pm
FWIW, I just rebalanced $56k out of TBM and into total stock market and total international stock market to bring my AA back to target. I had hit rebalance bands a few days ago, just got around to it today. Stay the course.
I rebalanced in a similar way last Thursday and if down a significant amount tomorrow I may need to again.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JAZZISCOOL » Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:50 pm

Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:52 pm

I completely agree.

I have added his book The Simple Path to Wealth to my list of books to read during times like these. Another is Jack Bogle's: Little Book of Common Sense Investing.
Thank you! I'll have to remember to review these as well!

:happy

lostdog
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lostdog » Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:59 pm

Hi All,

My peek in January was $833,000. After today it's $582,000. I'm 44 years old. Wife is 42.

Still riding the roller coaster and staying the course and adding money when it's available.

Time in the market is better than timing the market.

Thanks for this thread.
Global Market Cap Equity/1 Year Cash/Short Bonds || 25x Expenses

investor2018
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by investor2018 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:58 pm

This is very good thread for me - gives motivation to stay the course. I had been invested in company stock (RSUs) since 2013 and moved to index funds in 2018 and 2019.

I was at 1.028M on peak and $772K today. That is $256K reduction. I TLHed today for 5 figure losses. Staying the course.

We have about $150K in CD (non-penalty CD at ~2.2% rate) as emergency fund. This can cover more than a year (or 2 years) expense with our current expense level that we can reduce if we lose our jobs. We both are 38 year old and work for mega corp. Given the current stock price dip, does it make sense to put part of the emergency fund (say 25K) into equity? I also have a upcoming RSU vest in May. If I buy stocks using part of our emergency fund, I can maintain the balance by keeping the RSU proceedings (expect $25K after tax based on current stock value) in cash.

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