The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

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Stef
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Stef »

lostdog wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 amI admit that I fantasize about what if I timed the market with my 833k and sat it out and then lump summed back in yesterday during the plummet. Just fantasy. No way I would have known and I suck at gambling.
I'm thinking about this on a daily basis lol. What if? But it's easy to think like that way in retrospect. I wouldn't do it if the whole corona thing didn't happen and SP500 would be sitting at 3500 today. I'm going to stay the course, no matter what. I just wish that I wasn't the unluckiest investor on the planet :mrgreen:

At least I learned that 100% stocks is the right asset allocation for me because the only thing that makes me nervous is: how long till my next salary hits for investing more? :D
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lostdog »

Stef wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:16 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 amI admit that I fantasize about what if I timed the market with my 833k and sat it out and then lump summed back in yesterday during the plummet. Just fantasy. No way I would have known and I suck at gambling.
I'm thinking about this on a daily basis lol. What if? But it's easy to think like that way in retrospect. I wouldn't do it if the whole corona thing didn't happen and SP500 would be sitting at 3500 today. I'm going to stay the course, no matter what. I just wish that I wasn't the unluckiest investor on the planet :mrgreen:

At least I learned that 100% stocks is the right asset allocation for me because the only thing that makes me nervous is: how long till my next salary hits for investing more? :D
Yep. I have the same thought too. The good thing is that we're proving that we can handle it so far.

It's going to hurt for now but in the long term, we'll be rewarded.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by abuss368 »

Stef wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:16 am At least I learned that 100% stocks is the right asset allocation for me because the only thing that makes me nervous is: how long till my next salary hits for investing more? :D
This is key: Buy consistently and for the long term.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by pennywise »

Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board.
Well now that you made me look... :oops:

Husband and I both retired last year, recently transferred both 403b accounts into Vanguard IRAs as well as profits from sale of our home. Just discovered the amount we are down would pay for an upcoming home remodel, new cars or our daughter's wedding so of course I wish things hadn't dropped. But for us the money is definitely a long term resource. Don't want to say it's a non issue but we are also old enough, as many here have pointed out, to remember quite a few other sky-is-falling periods in our investment life. Things always come back, always. The stock market wobbles in any breeze-doesn't mean the hurricane is imminent.

If I was COUNTING on that money for the remodel etc or to pay our electric bill or buy groceries, I'd be in a far different mood. But for us and all those folks investing for the long term, especially for those still working and putting money into retirement funds, this is just a bump in the road. Actually it's a chance to buy stocks on sale.

Also, I'm not going to check my balances any more for awhile. No need to make myself upset, life will bring me enough aggravation without looking for more!
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queso
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by queso »

I wish I felt nothing, but it is really bad (Lagavulin seems to help). That's why it is so hard to stay the course. I hit my FIRE number earlier this year so lots of "should we have adjusted our AA?", etc., but nothing I can do about that now except be thankful I didn't retire so I have a few more years to build back up. I would have been a complete basket case if I had retired last month and then this happened. :happy
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by jpdion »

Value drop is cringe worthy for sure. But, we still own the same number of shares, which will increase in value when the correction/recession ends and the economy recovers. Have enough in bonds, cash, pension and Social Security income to weather the storm for a good while. So, staying the course. If/when a COVID-19 vaccine is created will the markets recover quickly?
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sigz »

Sucks to know that my account value is going down, but I continue to contribute (now 15%) to my 401k. As a soon to be 31 year old, this will all pass over and time in the market as a boglehead, I will have a healthy retirement portfolio.

"Stay the course."
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by rudeboy »

queso wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:57 am I wish I felt nothing, but it is really bad (Lagavulin seems to help). That's why it is so hard to stay the course. I hit my FIRE number earlier this year so lots of "should we have adjusted our AA?", etc., but nothing I can do about that now except be thankful I didn't retire so I have a few more years to build back up. I would have been a complete basket case if I had retired last month and then this happened. :happy
Think of it this way -- if you're second guess a high allocation to stocks now, then you likely only hit your FI number when you did because of that high allocation to stocks. If you had been more conservative along the way, your portfolio may well be about the same as it is now.
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queso
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by queso »

rudeboy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:49 am
queso wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:57 am I wish I felt nothing, but it is really bad (Lagavulin seems to help). That's why it is so hard to stay the course. I hit my FIRE number earlier this year so lots of "should we have adjusted our AA?", etc., but nothing I can do about that now except be thankful I didn't retire so I have a few more years to build back up. I would have been a complete basket case if I had retired last month and then this happened. :happy
Think of it this way -- if you're second guess a high allocation to stocks now, then you likely only hit your FI number when you did because of that high allocation to stocks. If you had been more conservative along the way, your portfolio may well be about the same as it is now.
Good point. I chose my AA carefully many years ago and I think it was still a good choice since I haven't panicked too much and have stayed the course. I'm not sure I could pick an AA that would results in zero panic and zero alcohol consumption during times like these. :happy
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

lostdog wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 am
I'm in the same boat. I watched 19% evaporate. I went from $833k to $675k. I watched 58k evaporate in one day.
May your losses be big, but your gains bigger.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lostdog »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:58 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 am
I'm in the same boat. I watched 19% evaporate. I went from $833k to $675k. I watched 58k evaporate in one day.
May your losses be big, but your gains bigger.
Looking forward to it. :sharebeer
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LiterallyIronic »

Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board.
Feel nothing? No, I'm not a machine. But it is mixed feelings - both happy that I can buy in cheaper and sad that the value went down. But I have never once thought about what the lost value could've bought. Probably because I don't really imagine my retirement accounts as "real money." The money in my checking and savings accounts is my "real money." When that goes down, that's what bums me out. I'm currently way more bummed about my liquid accounts being low (since we recently bought a car) than I am about my retirement account balances being low. Because the retirement account money doesn't feel "real" to me.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by goblue100 »

Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm I don't know whether to believe some of these responses. I'm much younger than most of you and have been buying into this nearly-bear market. But I would not say that I'm emotionally zen at all. I experience some fear when looking at the dollar value drops of my portfolio. And I experience even more greed - I've been buying a lot of stocks because I had a heavy allocation to cash.
I would say you and I have similar mentalities. I can't say I'm going, yeah, this is awesome. Of course, I am older and had plans to retire next year. I still may, but at least I still have options.
Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm I think what I can do is control my emotions and try not to let them influence the rational investment making process. My personality is such that I tend to be extremely aggressive with investments, which is funny because in real life I'm the sort of person who never jaywalks, won't go sky-diving or skiing, and am extremely risk-averse. But when it comes to investments, I feel it very intensely.

Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board.
As long as you don't let it affect you and you panic and sell out at the bottom, then it is ok to feel a little pain. And you can do what I did in December of 2008, I just stopped checking. I had bought on the way down and was out of "dry powder", so checking wasn't going to do any good other than make me so fearful that I might do something stupid.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Afty »

Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board.
I don't see the dollar value drops. I don't check my balances daily or even monthly. I check them once per quarter to update my net worth spreadsheet. This is intentional so I'm not tempted to stray from my plan. I am also trying to avoid media hysteria, steering in-person conversations away from the market, etc. Heck, I've mostly stopped reading Bogleheads during this panic.

I can't say I'm not worried, but it's not my largest concern at the moment. I'm more concerned about the health implications and the impact on my family's lives if we end up quarantined. I think there's a good chance my kids' school will be shut down, which will cause a much larger disruption to our lives than some numbers on a spreadsheet going down. My in-laws were planning to visit in April; that is almost certainly not happening.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by NearlyRetired »

Stef wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:30 pm Made a thread end of 2019 regarding my fear of starting investing. Understood that lump sum beats DCA and did that. Now lost 20% of my whole assets in 2.5 weeks.

Anything positive I can take away from the whole situation?
Well, unless you are just about to retire (unlikely as you wouldn't have put it all in equities) you haven't really "lost" anything. You would only lose if you cashed out - you still hold the same number of shares as before and the $$ that you see just reflect the value of those shares. If you have a way to go to retirement, do nothing, the markets will bounce back at some point and your $$ will increase. On a real plus side, if this is a bear market, its going to be great for new investors (not so great for me as I have just retired) as you will likely have a nice bull market to look forward to.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Pinotage »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:39 pm
Pinotage wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:17 am Now, who is up for a good water heater or snow tire discussion? :happy
Should I pay off my mortgage or invest in a taxable account?
You should pay off your snow tires and invest in a water heater. :sharebeer

I say that in jest, but within our jokes there is a grain of truth. When markets are at a high, reducing future liabilities (mortgage) makes sense.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by SchruteB&B »

My son just managed to save up his Roth contribution for 2019, which we the parents will match. So into the Target Date 2060 it goes this week! Very easy to be calm about money not needed until my teen is a senior citizen! :happy
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by WanderingPothos »

I feel like I have been calm ever since I bought some VTSAX in my taxable account on 2/21 and saw it practically evaporate the following week. At one point, I was thinking about going from 85/15 stocks/bonds to 100% stocks since I have 20+ years to retirement. Just now, the thought crossed my mind that nevermind, maybe I should put more money in bonds before things really tank (but what crystal ball?). I had just started my career in 2008 so I had no money in retirement so I wasn't paying attention to what happened then, although I read the panic threads from that time just to try to get a feel for it.

It's interesting to observe the inner voice talking in my head as new events happen...you really never know what you're going to be thinking/doing until you're living it! Anyways, this thread has been helpful for keeping me grounded. I will be staying the course, riding this roller coaster, and hoping that when I read this thread in retirement, I will appreciate that I did nothing (other than keep buying with each paycheck)!! :(
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

No sense crying over spilt milk, my grandma used to say.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Cubicle »

It's up, it's down. In 20-30 years movements I could have made in February & March (& April/May/June...) 2020 would have not resulted in any significant differences in my end portfolio balance. Because I am not an expert fortune teller. And no one will tell me what the market is doing tomorrow. Greedy selfish people...
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sigz »

Image

Me watching futures drop 1400pts, and still not looking at my rather young investment portfolio.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rock Lobster »

I recently maxed out my 2019 and 2020 IRA after getting a monetary windfall of around 270,000. Luckily that’s all I did. Lol.

I will later be investing at least 100k this year. I’m just going to try my best to see where rock bottom is and then hop in with 85% Stocks to 15% Bonds ratio.

I figure I’ve got at least four more decades (hopefully) and plenty of crashes to live through.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Elena »

Caduceus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm I don't know whether to believe some of these responses. I'm much younger than most of you and have been buying into this nearly-bear market. But I would not say that I'm emotionally zen at all. I experience some fear when looking at the dollar value drops of my portfolio. And I experience even more greed - I've been buying a lot of stocks because I had a heavy allocation to cash.

But I don't think I could just experience the ups and downs of the market and go - "meh ... just more of the same!"

I think what I can do is control my emotions and try not to let them influence the rational investment making process. My personality is such that I tend to be extremely aggressive with investments, which is funny because in real life I'm the sort of person who never jaywalks, won't go sky-diving or skiing, and am extremely risk-averse. But when it comes to investments, I feel it very intensely.

Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board.
I feel nothin'. I am known for this behavior in times of crisis, even as a child. I see my full pantry, my healthy family, a roof over my head and a good mattress, and let it drop. I am fine.
P. s.: I just did some Roth conversions.
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max12377
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by max12377 »

Any folks know where we can find some good Jack Bogle type podcasts or YouTube videos. I found I prefer to listen to optimists and ignore the “sky is falling” noise that permeates the media. Just as this post has been a refuge; I want to fill my brain with even more calm on my morning walks.

I have much much empathy for folks that are dealing with the virus but little tolerance for “how much money did you lose”, “futures are down”, “stay the course folks are bag holders”, “ stay the course folks are fools because everyone knows xxxx” etc it seems no matter which way the market goes someone wants to come out of their hiding place and boast that they are the smart ones. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but why boast or denigrate others ? I guess it’s just human nature. For me, I picked my AA and am sticking with it - investing is simple but not easy. I will tax loss harvest when I can. I will move my 401k to vanguard so I can start Roth conversions. To each their own I say.

In a bear market I always I was more conservative. In a bull I always wish I was more aggressive. No getting around it.

So far I’ve found Dr Drew, Brian Preston, Dave Ramsey, Warren Buffett all advocate calm. Looking for more. I’m ramping up my exercise goals. I expect this will take a while to sort out so it’s important to keep our heads on straight.

On this forum I love Taylor’s posts and Toons comments. Wish I knew where Livesoft was - enjoy his posts too. It’s an RBD extravaganza after all. Many others that I enjoy -too many to mention. Lots of smart people here.

So any forum posters that we should follow - please suggest those too!

well, off for my morning walk...

Max
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Pikel »

Bump


We will get through this. Don't panic. Stay the course.
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siamond
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by siamond »

I keep being amazed by how prescient opening this thread was... Well done, OP.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

siamond wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:56 am I keep being amazed by how prescient opening this thread was... Well done, OP.
+1
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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

max12377 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:34 am Any folks know where we can find some good Jack Bogle type podcasts or YouTube videos. I found I prefer to listen to optimists and ignore the “sky is falling” noise that permeates the media. Just as this post has been a refuge; I want to fill my brain with even more calm on my morning walks.

I have much much empathy for folks that are dealing with the virus but little tolerance for “how much money did you lose”, “futures are down”, “stay the course folks are bag holders”, “ stay the course folks are fools because everyone knows xxxx” etc it seems no matter which way the market goes someone wants to come out of their hiding place and boast that they are the smart ones. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but why boast or denigrate others ? I guess it’s just human nature. For me, I picked my AA and am sticking with it - investing is simple but not easy. I will tax loss harvest when I can. I will move my 401k to vanguard so I can start Roth conversions. To each their own I say.

In a bear market I always I was more conservative. In a bull I always wish I was more aggressive. No getting around it.

So far I’ve found Dr Drew, Brian Preston, Dave Ramsey, Warren Buffett all advocate calm. Looking for more. I’m ramping up my exercise goals. I expect this will take a while to sort out so it’s important to keep our heads on straight.

On this forum I love Taylor’s posts and Toons comments. Wish I knew where Livesoft was - enjoy his posts too. It’s an RBD extravaganza after all. Many others that I enjoy -too many to mention. Lots of smart people here.

So any forum posters that we should follow - please suggest those too!

well, off for my morning walk...

Max
Have you followed HomerJ's posts? Years of very helpful advice.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger
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kenyan
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by kenyan »

Not doing any 'what-ifs' because I followed (and continue to follow) my plan. A little sad that FIRE is likely no longer achievable when we hoped to do so (soon), and we'll have to keep working longer.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
george22
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by george22 »

Thankful for this thread. I’ve been surprisingly calm throughout all of this chaos, aside from a pang of regret for moving a portion of my emergency fund into stocks. I’d been focusing more on those funds being for emergencies originating on my end.

I started investing with Vanguard in 2011 (elsewhere prior, but nothing significant), but I never really had anything significant enough to concern me when things were dire in the past. Never paid attention to be honest. But I’d been getting more interested in all of this the past couple of years, and with a recent inheritance I added a considerable amount to my investments (all entering the market just before the recent turmoil). That got me a bit more focused on all of this stuff.

Aside from my invested emergency fund money, which is indeed causing me some gut-wrenching, my investments were always intended for longer-term scenarios. So that’s been a help to let all of this run its course and hold steady for the weeks/months/years ahead.

One upside is that it has brought to the forefront some investing research topics I’d been ignoring, like asset allocation, rebalancing, and so on. Those topics seemed a lot more nebulous and non-urgent when the market was doing well. I have a feeling I am going to be a stronger and wiser investor once society and the market is able to assimilate this disruption.

One positive thing about my ignorance regarding rebalancing was I had no idea how to do that, let alone when, during these uncertain times — so I did nothing.

And as things get worse, the more it makes me want to stand ground and let time heal the wounds. No way am I going to take a big loss to soothe my temporary emotional state.

My automatic contributions continue, I do my best to limit my exposure to current events, and have only logged into my Vanguard account once.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

If you're having any doubts about your plan now is a good time to read (or reread): A time to EVALUATE your jitters by nisiprius

I think after a while the pinned post at the top of each forum section get a little forgotten and passed over. This one should not be forgotten and is a great reminder to all Bogleheads and all visitors to the forum.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by k3vb0t »

It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth IRA.

I am a worrier in general, but watching ~20% of my portfolio evaporate hasn't really phased me. That has surprised me. Perhaps I am more worried about immediate needs. Perhaps I have internalized the "stay the course" mantra. Perhaps it is having a significant cash cushion that the dyed in the wool bogleheads say is a drag on my portfolio but helps me sleep at night.

Regardless, I am pumping money into my 401k for an early max out this year, and have been regularly contributing to our tIRAs as well.

I figure this is serious but, long term, I believe in humanity, capitalists creating value, and so on... or we're all toast. So I might as well invest for the upside :)
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Dottie57 »

k3vb0t wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth IRA.

I am a worrier in general, but watching ~20% of my portfolio evaporate hasn't really phased me. That has surprised me. Perhaps I am more worried about immediate needs. Perhaps I have internalized the "stay the course" mantra. Perhaps it is having a significant cash cushion that the dyed in the wool bogleheads say is a drag on my portfolio but helps me sleep at night.

Regardless, I am pumping money into my 401k for an early max out this year, and have been regularly contributing to our tIRAs as well.

I figure this is serious but, long term, I believe in humanity, capitalists creating value, and so on... or we're all toast. So I might as well invest for the upside :)
I know the feeling - hate seeing the account value go down. I almost wish I was still working so payday = time to buy stocks day.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by NearlyRetired »

Dottie57 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:22 pm
k3vb0t wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth IRA.

I am a worrier in general, but watching ~20% of my portfolio evaporate hasn't really phased me. That has surprised me. Perhaps I am more worried about immediate needs. Perhaps I have internalized the "stay the course" mantra. Perhaps it is having a significant cash cushion that the dyed in the wool bogleheads say is a drag on my portfolio but helps me sleep at night.

Regardless, I am pumping money into my 401k for an early max out this year, and have been regularly contributing to our tIRAs as well.

I figure this is serious but, long term, I believe in humanity, capitalists creating value, and so on... or we're all toast. So I might as well invest for the upside :)
I know the feeling - hate seeing the account value go down. I almost wish I was still working so payday = time to buy stocks day.
Something I have started doing, is looking at the % change rather than the actual pounds and pence - It feels less dramatic when I see a 1.5% fall somehow
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Dottie57
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Dottie57 »

NearlyRetired wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:30 pm
Dottie57 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:22 pm
k3vb0t wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth IRA.

I am a worrier in general, but watching ~20% of my portfolio evaporate hasn't really phased me. That has surprised me. Perhaps I am more worried about immediate needs. Perhaps I have internalized the "stay the course" mantra. Perhaps it is having a significant cash cushion that the dyed in the wool bogleheads say is a drag on my portfolio but helps me sleep at night.

Regardless, I am pumping money into my 401k for an early max out this year, and have been regularly contributing to our tIRAs as well.

I figure this is serious but, long term, I believe in humanity, capitalists creating value, and so on... or we're all toast. So I might as well invest for the upside :)
I know the feeling - hate seeing the account value go down. I almost wish I was still working so payday = time to buy stocks day.
Something I have started doing, is looking at the % change rather than the actual pounds and pence - It feels less dramatic when I see a 1.5% fall somehow

I know. And am not paniced - more annoyed. Hoping for the sake of all that the virus can be contained.

Waiting for stocks to hit 30% of portfolio to start rebalance.

Mpls Star Tribune announced Mayo Clinic has a newtest for Covid-19. It also says other Labs (quest and Labcorp) also are doing same since CDC is overwhelmed.
rudeboy
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by rudeboy »

k3vb0t wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth IRA.

I am a worrier in general, but watching ~20% of my portfolio evaporate hasn't really phased me. That has surprised me. Perhaps I am more worried about immediate needs. Perhaps I have internalized the "stay the course" mantra. Perhaps it is having a significant cash cushion that the dyed in the wool bogleheads say is a drag on my portfolio but helps me sleep at night.

Regardless, I am pumping money into my 401k for an early max out this year, and have been regularly contributing to our tIRAs as well.

I figure this is serious but, long term, I believe in humanity, capitalists creating value, and so on... or we're all toast. So I might as well invest for the upside :)
I also feel oddly nonplussed by the market carnage. I've been attributing it to the reading I've done and internalization of the BH way, but the sheer quickness of it also may play a part. It's almost amusing watching it fall 5+% day after day, in some weird way. The pain will come if/when we get to the other side and the market doesn't recover quickly.
xbc81
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by xbc81 »

I am not an experienced or confident investor. I posted a couple of years ago trying to do better with a mishmash of accounts, and spent a long time reading and learning and slowly moving things to an organized, sensible place I felt was logical for the long-term -- about 75/25, with about 20% of that 75% in international, on a total portfolio right around the $1M mark. I made the final moves at the beginning of the year (selling some high-fee funds and moving to indexes) and felt like things were nicely set up for the long haul. My husband and I are both around 40, so we do have time. This thread is helping me stay calm and hope that it's all fine in the long run, that I'm right not to act out of fear and panic, and that the best thing to do is trust the long-term trends. I feel like I alternately think I should sell-sell-sell and buy-buy-buy, so I'm letting the feelings cancel each other out, and definitely not looking at balances. I can say that I wish I'd sold everything on the first downturn a couple of weeks ago, but I know that I was no more likely to be right than wrong, and no matter when I sold, I wouldn't know when to buy back in, and I'd have probably hurt myself going forward. Probably. And then I read the news and feel silly for being in the market at all when it seems like the world is about to end, and wonder if I should just accept a loss now and hope to get back in somewhere on the way up. I'm not sure what my point is, except to say that I'm finding this thread reassuring, and hope (not just for the sake of my account balances) that this all has a quick resolution and makes us all seem sensible compared to the people making panicked (or over-confident) choices. Thanks for listening.
k3vb0t
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by k3vb0t »

xbc81 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:42 pm I am not an experienced or confident investor. I posted a couple of years ago trying to do better with a mishmash of accounts, and spent a long time reading and learning and slowly moving things to an organized, sensible place I felt was logical for the long-term -- about 75/25, with about 20% of that 75% in international, on a total portfolio right around the $1M mark. I made the final moves at the beginning of the year (selling some high-fee funds and moving to indexes) and felt like things were nicely set up for the long haul. My husband and I are both around 40, so we do have time. This thread is helping me stay calm and hope that it's all fine in the long run, that I'm right not to act out of fear and panic, and that the best thing to do is trust the long-term trends. I feel like I alternately think I should sell-sell-sell and buy-buy-buy, so I'm letting the feelings cancel each other out, and definitely not looking at balances. I can say that I wish I'd sold everything on the first downturn a couple of weeks ago, but I know that I was no more likely to be right than wrong, and no matter when I sold, I wouldn't know when to buy back in, and I'd have probably hurt myself going forward. Probably. And then I read the news and feel silly for being in the market at all when it seems like the world is about to end, and wonder if I should just accept a loss now and hope to get back in somewhere on the way up. I'm not sure what my point is, except to say that I'm finding this thread reassuring, and hope (not just for the sake of my account balances) that this all has a quick resolution and makes us all seem sensible compared to the people making panicked (or over-confident) choices. Thanks for listening.
Go read this: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
new2bogle
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by new2bogle »

nguy44 wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:55 am If one has never experienced a market downturn like this, an actionable item is to determine if you are still comfortable with your cash and stock/bond AA for the next market downturn, and start figuring out if you need to adjust.

I have invested through the 1987 Black Monday crash (imagine seeing your equities holdings fall 22% in one day), the recession of 1990, the dot-com bust, and of course the great recession. My lessons learned was to allocate stock/bond/cash to provide me with the proper balance of growth, risk, and "sleep at night" factor to weather the storm. This specifics will not be the same for everyone, but you will find where you are comfortable so that a downturn like this will not be a cause to panic.
Good point. I am comfortable (giddy) with this downturn - will not need anything for about 11 years (then taking out of Roth to pay for college expenses - not retirement). I think for the next downturn (8-10 years from now?) I will have a different AA than now, which is 90/10.
achillesheel
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by achillesheel »

Dear Bogleheads,

I am 30 years old. Have been investing for about 4 years, with the last 2 spent stalking this website but never posting. Today, I felt the urge to "do something" and decided to sign up! Just a few personal notes in response to this thread.

1.Thanks to Boglehead knowledge, I've been TLHing on the way down and buying into more tax-efficient funds (like VTI) in taxable. So far, a net buyer of equities in the last week. I also have seen the benefits of knowing / learning about: risk in all its forms, a bulky emergency fund, behavioral pitfalls, and the discipline of sticking to a plan.
2. Second, and more philosophically, I enjoy and benefit from pithy Boglehead maxims in times of crisis. Admonitions to "stay the course", "invest for the long term", "Don't do something, just stand there!" all have helped me immensely and made me chuckle too, as I repeat them to myself and mention them to others (who need it).
3.Taylor Larimore: I admire this man. Think of all the things he's seen. He reminds me that investing is connected in some way with character, particularly with the virtues of courage (in times of crisis) and moderation (in times of plenty). He's characterized by a calm, steady demeanor in spite of the past, present, and future challenges.

All best and cheers! :beer
Last edited by achillesheel on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Day9
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Day9 »

achillesheel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:41 pm Dear Bogleheads,

I am 30 years old. Have been investing for about 4 years, with the last 2 spent stalking this website but never posting. Today, I felt the urge to "do something" and decided to sign up! Just a few personal notes in response to this thread.

1.Thanks to Boglehead knowledge, I've been TLHing on the way down and buying into more tax-efficient funds (like VTI) in taxable. So far, a net buyer of equities in the last week. I also have seen the benefits of knowing / learning about: risk in all its forms, a bulky emergency fund, behavioral pitfalls, and the discipline of sticking to a plan.
2. Second, and more philosophically, I enjoy and benefit from pithy Boglehead maxims in times of crisis. Admonitions to "stay the course", "invest for the long term", "Don't do something, just stand there!" all have helped me immensely and made me chuckle too, as I repeat them to myself and mention them to others (who need it).
3.Taylor Larimore: I admire this man. Think of all the things he's seen. He reminds me that investing is connected in some way with character, particularly with the virtues of courage (in times of crisis) and moderation (in times of plenty). He's characterized by a calm, steady, demeanor in spite of the past, present, and future challenges.

All best and cheers! :beer
Welcome to the forum! I would like to echo all 3 of your points. :beer
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from
Shael_AT
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Shael_AT »

Pretty wild times we're living in.

My 401k is steady, HSA is steady, Monthly Roth IRA contributions also steady. Have been and will continue to max these out to legal limit, we are making no changes to this and I need to resist the urge to up my % contribution amounts more than anything else. "When in doubt, zoom out" but wow, what a drop. My inner market-timer is far more vocal than my inner panic-seller.

Mom's Spaghetti. :twisted:

Additionally, throwing $774 a week, every Monday, into 70 VTSAX / 30 VTIAX, in brokerage (excess investments).

I started working during the Financial Crises and even when I made $13 bucks an hour back then, I saved 40-50% of my income and pretty much threw it into my retirement accounts. Have remained vigilant and on course ever since.

The difference is, back then that was not too much money - I remember, what, 500? 600 post tax a month?

My shovel is much bigger now. I am so thankful my past self made such wise investments and I know in 10,20,30,40 years I will look back and be thankful. However now, I am thinking more on the scale of providing for my family, creating multi generational wealth, diversifying into owning assets like real estate, or "realizing the potential of income and wealth to live a fruitful and sustainable life".

It's a position of privilege and I cross my fingers that my employment will remain sound. If it doesn't, we have a plan for that, and I hope we don't find ourselves in a position to HAVE to draw down emergency funds.

Keep The Course. :sharebeer
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siamond
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by siamond »

I must say that a carefully designed rebalancing procedure (following the principles described here) is proving really helpful. I initiated one round today (unsurprisingly). It's not so much that I hope for a significant rebalancing 'bonus' of sorts, I know better, but it does help from a behavioral standpoint:
- a rebalancing trigger feels like an opportunity, a positive sentiment
- it gives me something to do, an action to take (it's easy to say 'stay the course', but we all itch to do *something*)
- it's a mechanical process, no hesitation, no regret, no hidden 'market timing' decision

This chain of events made me realize I needed to clean up my act with Roth conversions though. I didn't have a mechanical procedure in place for those. I did a first round of it a week ago, admittedly impulse-driven. Then cursed myself. I did another round two days ago. Then cursed myself again today. Enough with that. I just updated my IPS and formalized a simple logical process (e.g. do 90% of it 1st week of January, fill the gaps as my tax picture gets more refined end of December). Stay calm, follow thoughtful predefined rules, which helps in turn to stay calm.

In the midst of all the troubles and concerns, this is a small silver lining of sorts. This situation is a unique learning opportunity. Observe yourself! Live and learn!
Sigz
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sigz »

Another day, another huge drop. Still not looking at my accounts!

Another payday, another contribution to my 457 tomorrow!
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hagridshut
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by hagridshut »

All my mutual funds are locked up in tax-advantaged accounts.

I can stay calm, because I can't access the vast majority of this anyways without incurring huge tax penalties. Anyone who survived the Dot Com bust of 2001 and the near-Armageddon 2008 Financial Crisis is unlikely to be phased by Corona virus panic.

Seeing market value go down sucks. But the Financial system is not teetering on the brink of total collapse like it was in 2008.
First Principles: (1) Diversify (2) Low Cost (3) Stay the Course | 3-Fund Index Portfolio
Independent George
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Independent George »

It's amazing what going through 2008 does to your perspective. Right now, I feel not only calm, but kind of incredulous at the panic.

Just for clarity, I'm not talking about the virus; my parents are in their late 70s and live in the NYC area, so I am quite worried about them (though not panicked). But in economic terms, the market drop seems unreal to me; I'm kind of giddy because I doubled my 401k contribution this year (right up to the max), so I feel like I stumbled into a really good market timing opportunity by sheer coincidence.

Q1 GDP is almost certainly negative already, and will probably continue into Q2 (and maybe Q3), thereby putting us into a recession. The travel and hospitality industry is going to get hit bad this year, and a lot of people are going to have a lot less money to spend in the near term. But I just don't see these effects persisting beyond a year or two.
chuckb84
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by chuckb84 »

What a day. Hit a rebalance point, so I did that to bring things back to 48/12/40 VTSAX/VTIAX/VBTLX. I was one of the last to get in with lenderfi and locked a rate that will save me $250/month. I looked over the budget and am planning to cut a few luxuries and will reduce 401k withdrawals about $500/month. Other than those things, just watching and following the IPS.

There is another "cut the luxuries" point, which is still far away, that I hope I don't reach, but we can ride this one out for quite some time before getting to that.
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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

siamond wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:00 pm I must say that a carefully designed rebalancing procedure (following the principles described here) is proving really helpful. I initiated one round today (unsurprisingly). It's not so much that I hope for a significant rebalancing 'bonus' of sorts, I know better, but it does help from a behavioral standpoint:
- a rebalancing trigger feels like an opportunity, a positive sentiment
- it gives me something to do, an action to take (it's easy to say 'stay the course', but we all itch to do *something*)
- it's a mechanical process, no hesitation, no regret, no hidden 'market timing' decision
I agree completely with this. I've been thinking about the behavioral aspect of rebalancing the last few years. The reasons you give are spot on.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger
rick2427
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by rick2427 »

Been following BH for past 5 years and thank all the good people who have shared their wisdom with us.

I retired in June, 2017 after selling our business. Prior to that I was a haphazard investor, buying and selling individual stocks. Sometimes I had good returns, most times not so good. I went thru Dot com bust losing 65% of our equity. I do not remember much about 2008-2009 because I was very busy in our business and never looked at the balance in the brokerage account. I kept throwing in all the cash I had leftover each month after paying off the bills.

In 2015, I found Bogleheads and started reading the BH investment philosophy. This gave me enough confidence to retire in 2017 at age 57. So far we had decent market returns, but now is the real test. Last week I TLH twice and today I rebalanced after the rebalance bands were breached. The account value is down BIGLY, but surprisingly I am relatively calm. Have no idea how long this carnage is going to last but I intend to stick to our IPS.....what else can I do?.

Incidentally, my 25yrs old daughter called today and asked me if I was feeling OK. You see, she has been following the market. This is her first job out of grad school and I helped her set up/fund a new brokerage account, ROTH IRA account and also a 401K. She seemed worried for us but not for herself, so I advised her not to watch the news and continue making monthly contributions to her 401K plan and also to her brokerage account....also told her not to worry as this too shall pass.

Thanks Bogleheads for your wisdom and thanks OP for starting the CALM thread!!
JD13
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JD13 »

rick2427 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:52 pm Been following BH for past 5 years and thank all the good people who have shared their wisdom with us.

I retired in June, 2017 after selling our business. Prior to that I was a haphazard investor, buying and selling individual stocks. Sometimes I had good returns, most times not so good. I went thru Dot com bust losing 65% of our equity. I do not remember much about 2008-2009 because I was very busy in our business and never looked at the balance in the brokerage account. I kept throwing in all the cash I had leftover each month after paying off the bills.

In 2015, I found Bogleheads and started reading the BH investment philosophy. This gave me enough confidence to retire in 2017 at age 57. So far we had decent market returns, but now is the real test. Last week I TLH twice and today I rebalanced after the rebalance bands were breached. The account value is down BIGLY, but surprisingly I am relatively calm. Have no idea how long this carnage is going to last but I intend to stick to our IPS.....what else can I do?.

Incidentally, my 25yrs old daughter called today and asked me if I was feeling OK. You see, she has been following the market. This is her first job out of grad school and I helped her set up/fund a new brokerage account, ROTH IRA account and also a 401K. She seemed worried for us but not for herself, so I advised her not to watch the news and continue making monthly contributions to her 401K plan and also to her brokerage account....also told her not to worry as this too shall pass.

Thanks Bogleheads for your wisdom and thanks OP for starting the CALM thread!!
Hi Rick2427
I'm also in the same boat. Lost around 250K in total. On top of that I messed up my TLH. AND on top of that my bond ETFs are also going down. Staying the course is getting really hard. Not sure what to do
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