The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

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JD13
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JD13 »

Gemini1962 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:15 am
LilyFleur wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:57 am I've lost about $50,000 this year. Yawn.
Yeah I've just checked and I'm not down even a single share :D
I've down 90K. Here' how my AA looks like
https://imgur.com/a/eBxWTr0
Last edited by JD13 on Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Orbuculum Nongata
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Orbuculum Nongata »

max12377 wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:34 am Hi Bogleheads-

Since we have a stocks skyrocket and stocks plummet thread, can we start one where we can go for refuge ? I love to read posts from those who are calm and riding out the volatility both on the upside and downside. I see plenty of boasting on the upside and hand wringing panic on the downside. I know .. it’s human nature and I have the same reactions, trust me. Just looking to see if we can get a calmer heads prevail thread where we post things like Jack’s reassuring wisdom or Taylor’s gems as we deal with the inevitable volatility.

I think this panic will subside but even if there are challenges ahead I want a team of Bogleheads to help us all stay the course in true Bogleheads fashion.

Max
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JD13
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JD13 »

Are people tax loss harvesting here?
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siamond
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by siamond »

I reached my rebalancing trigger bands and acting accordingly. It's actually good to do *something*, while actually aiming at staying the course. I've long been convinced that rebalancing has a lot of psychological benefits...
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lock.that.stock
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lock.that.stock »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:31 am
Ztx wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:05 am 100% stocks allocation. Staying the course!
--Edward Smith
Your post wasn't very funny, so I added the part in bold.
Ha! Pretty funny!
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Johnsson
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Johnsson »

Currently in Cancun and unable to do anything but watch. Life was better before the internet!!

We may have hit a band. Fortunately we're home on Saturday and I'll be able to do something... I'll at least to be able to calculate where our AAs at.

I don't usually feel the need to do anything and am happy updating my AA spreadsheet.

HOWEVER, I do have some unallocated dividends (I've let stagnate for just this type of occurrence) I can play with even if we didn't hit a band!!!! :D
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra
limeyx
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by limeyx »

JD13 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:30 pm Are people tax loss harvesting here?
Everything is still up. I only had about $500 of losses on stuff I bought in the last couple of months
n00b
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by n00b »

Gemini1962 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:28 pm Whenever you buy or sell the person on the other end of that transaction is almost certainly a professional institution and their job is to shake the money tree and see who falls out, well it ain't gonna be me. I don't care how much it goes down I'm not selling. I'm 57 with 100% in equities (mainly the S&P500) and if it goes to zero and never comes back then America and every business in it is finished and when I ask myself how likely that is I just laugh.


I like your mental model.
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watchnerd
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

gokartmozart wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:58 pm
If on the other hand you were an investor back in the downturn of [year whatever] then recognize you are older and wiser now and you can use this drop to kick your knowledge up even further.
This, too, shall pass.
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goblue100
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by goblue100 »

I think this fits here:
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/per ... rce=pushly

Scott Burns says don't just do something, stand there. Or sit there.
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Pinotage
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Pinotage »

Now, who is up for a good water heater or snow tire discussion? :happy
ARoseByAnyOtherName
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName »

People are going completely nuts...and the S&P is only down about 10%.

So much hysteria. You can smell the fear.

Time to buy!
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WestUniversity
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by WestUniversity »

GoldenFinch wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:15 am I think your idea of a calm thread is a nice idea, but I wonder whether the truly calm people need a thread. If we are all calm, what will we discuss?

Sincerely,

GoldenFinch
Yup!
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WestUniversity
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by WestUniversity »

ARoseByAnyOtherName wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:42 am People are going completely nuts...and the S&P is only down about 10%.

So much hysteria. You can smell the fear.

Time to buy!
Ditto...
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by dogagility »

Just rebalanced the portfolio today. Feels good.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by AllMostThere »

Over the years Bogelheads have given me the strength to "stay-the-course". I have a good 60/40 allocation, so the pain has not been tremendous. Rather than panic, I actually conducted a re-balance action yesterday in my 401K. Buying equities on-sale felt good. :beer
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watchnerd
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

I'm surprised how many others have hit their rebalancing bands already, TBH.

Mine aren't quite there yet.

I'm guessing it's because I have less US stock as percentage of my port.

Or the portion of my port that is ESPP-based, which is still positive (by a hair) for the year.
Last edited by watchnerd on Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName »

AllMostThere wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:55 am Over the years Bogelheads have given me the strength to "stay-the-course". I have a good 60/40 allocation, so the pain has not been tremendous. Rather than panic, I actually conducted a re-balance action yesterday in my 401K. Buying equities on-sale felt good. :beer
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sheepdog »

I am 86. How many market downturns have passed in my lifetime? I won't count. I have lived off of my savings for over almost 23 years (no pension). I have more in my savings than 23 years ago. I am healthy.
Be calm, love your family, have a good time, eat well, exercise, sleep well, say "I love you" often.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by knpstr »

What perspective are we using everyone saying that they are down? From all time highs? Of course you are, you can be nothing but down from an all-time high... that's what makes it an all-time high.

Vanguard says my portfolio is still UP 17.6% from this time last year.
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watchnerd
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

knpstr wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 am
Vanguard says my portfolio is still UP 17.6% from this time last year.
Personally, I would prefer to be up 0%, or even a little negative, YoY, in 2020.

Hopefully I'll get my wish in the coming months.
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Independent George
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Independent George »

Most of the people in the freefall thread actually seem pretty calm.
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knpstr
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by knpstr »

Independent George wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:55 am Most of the people in the freefall thread actually seem pretty calm.
The "coronavirus and the market thread" is where people are freaking out
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LilyFleur
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LilyFleur »

Caduceus wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:22 am
Gemini1962 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:15 am
LilyFleur wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:57 am I've lost about $50,000 this year. Yawn.
Yeah I've just checked and I'm not down even a single share :D
It's funny, but this is really the correct way to think about it. If the long-term fundamental earning power of the underlying business that your share represents hasn't changed, then you really have nothing to worry about. It's the percentage of your interest in the business that matters, not its day to day fluctuations.

That being said, I am finding it hard to be quite so stoic about market movements as you are. I was 100% in cash in Dec 2019, having sold off equity positions that I believed were fairly valued, and looking for other things to buy. It looks like I invested too quickly - I spent 40% of that cash already between Jan 24 and Feb 27 on positions I liked - and still do, and I have no intention of selling them. But I do the mental calculation of how much more shares I could have bought with the 100% cash position I had on Jan 23rd, if I had only waited one measly month! So I get sad at not having waited one more month, but happy the market keeps on going down since I still have 60% of undeployed cash. I can't tell whether to be sad or happy. I am simultaneously sad and happy, if that's possible.

I've noticed how irrational this is, because when markets are going up and I have cash, I am also conflicted. I'm happy because my stock is doing well, but really sad I can't buy things cheaper with the cash I have.

So the only times I experience unconflicted emotions is when the market goes down when I'm in 100% cash. Or when the market goes up when I'm in 100% stocks. Which is almost never.

Being human is very tough. All existence is suffering.
I hope your last sentence was ironic.
I have heard it is impossible to feel anxious or sad if you are feeling gratitude.
Sorry if that sounded a bit Pollyanna-ish, but it really does help.
People on this web site can get pretty hyped about "problems" that lots of Americans can only dream about.
The BH approach of having an ISP, then an asset allocation based on that ISP, is really logical and takes a lot of the emotion out of investing. I do understand, though, that plenty of people feel anxious about investing. I have a friend who is a rather emotional type, and I think she is best served by having an advisor, to avoid making expensive, emotion-driven errors.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LilyFleur »

Third Son wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:35 am Well today is my official retirement day. I feel pretty good about our situation since we have two years of cash saved and will be receiving a lump sum pension in about six weeks. My 401k/IRA has taken a hit (as has everyone's) over the past week but I am at 45/55 so it hasn't been too harrowing. What is really a drag is that I had foot surgery last week and am relegated to the sofa with my foot elevated most of the time. That unfortunately leads me to pay more attention to the markets than what is healthy. Good planning and good luck has allowed me to retire at 60. I should really catch up on my reading :beer
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Marlon Marlin »

Sheepdog wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:18 am I am 86. How many market downturns have passed in my lifetime? I won't count. I have lived off of my savings for over almost 23 years (no pension). I have more in my savings than 23 years ago. I am healthy.
Be calm, love your family, have a good time, eat well, exercise, sleep well, say "I love you" often.
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Your honesty during The Big One STILL inspires and educates people on this board. Your wisdom and call for calm really helps. :beer
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LilyFleur
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LilyFleur »

Sheepdog wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:18 am I am 86. How many market downturns have passed in my lifetime? I won't count. I have lived off of my savings for over almost 23 years (no pension). I have more in my savings than 23 years ago. I am healthy.
Be calm, love your family, have a good time, eat well, exercise, sleep well, say "I love you" often.
Woof Woof
:happy
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watchnerd
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

My ESPP is going to be awesome this period.

10% discount on an already discounted market...

It's a shame it's capped at $25K per year by law.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

Sheepdog wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:18 am I am 86. How many market downturns have passed in my lifetime? I won't count. I have lived off of my savings for over almost 23 years (no pension). I have more in my savings than 23 years ago. I am healthy.
Be calm, love your family, have a good time, eat well, exercise, sleep well, say "I love you" often.
Woof Woof
This is great advice and good to hear. Thank you for sharing.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Third Son »

LilyFleur wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:05 pm
Third Son wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:35 am Well today is my official retirement day. I feel pretty good about our situation since we have two years of cash saved and will be receiving a lump sum pension in about six weeks. My 401k/IRA has taken a hit (as has everyone's) over the past week but I am at 45/55 so it hasn't been too harrowing. What is really a drag is that I had foot surgery last week and am relegated to the sofa with my foot elevated most of the time. That unfortunately leads me to pay more attention to the markets than what is healthy. Good planning and good luck has allowed me to retire at 60. I should really catch up on my reading :beer
Congratulations! Join a book club!
Oh I have a stack that I am going through.... Thanks!
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vipertom1970
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by vipertom1970 »

If you look at the chart for the DOW since it started, there has never been a negative return in any 15 rolling years and this why I don't fear the market even at -265k last week.
Last edited by vipertom1970 on Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Alchemist
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Alchemist »

Nice to see that not everyone is panicking. I am another one staying the course and not too worried about this from a financial perspective. Corrections and bear markets are part of the plan going into equity investing.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by NearlyRetired »

Alchemist wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:07 pm Nice to see that not everyone is panicking. I am another one staying the course and not too worried about this from a financial perspective. Corrections and bear markets are part of the plan going into equity investing.
And, indeed, if it is a correction, as I have just retired, the timing couldn't be better
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by finite_difference »

Stay the course.

-Jack Bogle
Staying the course in lieu of pouring one out.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by vipertom1970 »

good days are coming boys, invest by looking 10 years down the road and keep on DCA and hopefully some one here put more money in last week like I did.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by watchnerd »

vipertom1970 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am good days are coming boys, invest by looking 10 years down the road and keep on DCA and hopefully some one here put more money in last week like I did.
I put in exactly the amount my IPS called for, namely:

Regular contributions -- as scheduled

Rebalancing -- haven't hit the bands yet
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Gretchen »

Ramjet wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:43 am I can see a retiree having some angst over this, everyone else...meh
We're retired, ages 69 (me) and 72 (DH). Rather than having a specific AA in mind, I have five rules. 1) If the market is subjectively high, take all IRA distributions from stock. 2) Make all charitable donations as Qualified Charitable Distributions from husband's IRA, now that he's past age 70 1/2. 3) Have ten years' needs in bonds, CDs, and money market funds. 4) Target spending about 4% of all assets (except home) each year, and be tax-smart about which accounts to use. 5) Don't peek at total assets when the market is down!

I admit I harvested an extra $20K of cash beyond target from DH's IRA at possibly the peak, because we have immediate cash flow needs in the next few months.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by zonto »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:47 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am good days are coming boys, invest by looking 10 years down the road and keep on DCA and hopefully some one here put more money in last week like I did.
I put in exactly the amount my IPS called for, namely:

Regular contributions -- as scheduled

Rebalancing -- haven't hit the bands yet
Exactly the same for me. Payroll contribution hit last Tuesday. I updated my holdings spreadsheet after Friday's carnage close, and even though I use all long-term U.S. Treasurys for my 30% bond allocation, bonds were only at 33.99% of the portfolio. No rebalancing trigger, and moved further away from one today with the uptick.
"For real-world portfolios, the main impact of diversification is to narrow the dispersion of outcomes. [T]he most important impact is to make the worst outcomes less bad." (Vineviz)
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by CyclingDuo »

zonto wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:46 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:47 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am good days are coming boys, invest by looking 10 years down the road and keep on DCA and hopefully some one here put more money in last week like I did.
I put in exactly the amount my IPS called for, namely:

Regular contributions -- as scheduled

Rebalancing -- haven't hit the bands yet
Exactly the same for me. Payroll contribution hit last Tuesday. I updated my holdings spreadsheet after Friday's carnage close, and even though I use all long-term U.S. Treasurys for my 30% bond allocation, bonds were only at 33.99% of the portfolio. No rebalancing trigger, and moved further away from one today with the uptick.
Yes, the suggestion to keep on keeping on with your IPS and scheduled contributions with your chosen AA seems to be the strategy of choice.

Last Friday was payday, so into the market went our regularly scheduled pre-tax deductions into the retirement accounts. Today is our regularly scheduled weekly contributions into our taxable accounts, and this coming Friday is another payday from a job where the 401k and ESPP receive their regular bi-weekly contributions. On and on every week, and every bi-weekly cylce with paycheck contributions as we simply march on through the thick and thin. Ditto for all dividends being reinvested along the way.

Covid-19 concerns aside, an intra-year decline of -14% is, on average, an annual event for the markets. The sudden 10.2% drop at the end of January and in early February 2018 took 13 days, the drop of 19.8% in Q4 of 2018 took 95 days and the drop of 6.8% in the Spring of 2019 took 34 days. This one of -12.8% to date took only 6 days (as of last Friday) and remains to be seen with regard to decline percentage and duration.

Image

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lock.that.stock
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lock.that.stock »

CyclingDuo wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:01 am
zonto wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:46 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:47 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am good days are coming boys, invest by looking 10 years down the road and keep on DCA and hopefully some one here put more money in last week like I did.
I put in exactly the amount my IPS called for, namely:

Regular contributions -- as scheduled

Rebalancing -- haven't hit the bands yet
Exactly the same for me. Payroll contribution hit last Tuesday. I updated my holdings spreadsheet after Friday's carnage close, and even though I use all long-term U.S. Treasurys for my 30% bond allocation, bonds were only at 33.99% of the portfolio. No rebalancing trigger, and moved further away from one today with the uptick.
Yes, the suggestion to keep on keeping on with your IPS and scheduled contributions with your chosen AA seems to be the strategy of choice.

Last Friday was payday, so into the market went our regularly scheduled pre-tax deductions into the retirement accounts. Today is our regularly scheduled weekly contributions into our taxable accounts, and this coming Friday is another payday from a job where the 401k and ESPP receive their regular bi-weekly contributions. On and on every week, and every bi-weekly cylce with paycheck contributions as we simply march on through the thick and thin. Ditto for all dividends being reinvested along the way.

Covid-19 concerns aside, an intra-year decline of -14% is, on average, an annual event for the markets. The sudden 10.2% drop at the end of January and in early February 2018 took 13 days, the drop of 19.8% in Q4 of 2018 took 95 days and the drop of 6.8% in the Spring of 2019 took 34 days. This one of -12.8% to date took only 6 days (as of last Friday) and remains to be seen with regard to decline percentage and duration.

Image

Fed cuts rates 50 bps as I submit this post.
Good cheat sheet. Saved it! Thank you.
vipertom1970
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by vipertom1970 »

check out the link from Taylor Larimore "Here We Go Again" and also look at the S&P 500 chart for all past major events.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=305706
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by pharmermummles »

OK. I know this isn't even a significant selloff yet, but I can't help but feel validated in my risk tolerance and ability to stay the course. I see these wild swings and all I can do is laugh at how irrational it can all be sometimes. Lost $15K, gained $7K, lost $5K. The market giveth, the market taketh. Yawn. Nothing has changed, but the markets are certain we are either going to die tomorrow or the markets will go to the moon. I'm glad to be hearing from so many on the forum who are remaining calm and ignoring the fickle market movements day to day and week to week. Keep it up folks! :beer
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by fredflinstone »

I am bumping this thread because I am sure we will see a lot of posts about market timing, "tactical asset allocation" and the like today. People, this is not complicated. My fellow Bogleheads, we all know the right thing to do -- the smart thing to do -- is to stay the course and keep calm. The market is down less than 20 percent. I'll be saying the same thing if the market is up 40 percent, down 40 percent, or down 80 percent. STAY THE COURSE.
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pharmermummles
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by pharmermummles »

Yes sir. If you are accumulating and even 5 years from retirement, this is most likely fantastic. Wash your hands, stay safe, and go along with life as planned. Even if you are retired, assuming you have a good plan and a reasonable withdrawal rate, this is unlikely to be much of a big deal over the long term. Keep calm and Bogle on. If you can't do that, then follow Bogle's other advice. Turn off the TV and don't peek. You'll thank yourself later.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

fredflinstone wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:03 am I am bumping this thread because I am sure we will see a lot of posts about market timing, "tactical asset allocation" and the like today. People, this is not complicated. My fellow Bogleheads, we all know the right thing to do -- the smart thing to do -- is to stay the course and keep calm. The market is down less than 20 percent. I'll be saying the same thing if the market is up 40 percent, down 40 percent, or down 80 percent. STAY THE COURSE.
Thank you for the wise words. We can all use some calm right now. :happy
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Pete12
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Pete12 »

This morning I popped open my little spreadsheet where I track my AA. Updated my balances from Friday. Re-read my IPS. Saw that my AA was off around 5%. Placed a couple of orders with Fidelity to re-balance 401k, then headed over to Vanguard to place two TLH orders in taxable.

Ahhh the Boglehead way... relaxing 8-)

Back to work now for a bit and will go for a jog at lunchtime, we have spring-like weather today.

Stay the course my friends!
millennial_investor
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by millennial_investor »

Panic in the headlines on what is the 11th anniversary of the '09 bottom. I'm using today as an excuse to open a Vanguard Roth IRA and start contributing. No market timing, just regular monthly contributions. I'm 30 and just now starting to think/invest long-term. :sharebeer
Always passive
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Always passive »

It is all about planning and discipline. With 30% in equities (all my portfolio is in ETFs, except a ladder of TIPs), since the beginning of the year I am even as of a few minutes ago!
I am retired, so I do not think that it is smart to take unnecessary risks, even if I do not have much to tell to my friends about Tesla, Netflix, or Apple.
SocalLiving
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by SocalLiving »

Today I'm giving myself credit for taking the advice of all the wise and helpful Bogleheads on this forum a few years ago. I picked an AA assuming that at at some point equities will crash and my portfolio will take a big hit.
I have learned that I am very comfortable with my 67/33 AA, gliding towards 60/40 one year at a time. But the biggest benefit is that my IPS tells me exactly what I need to do, and I trust it. Keep contributing according to my AA and rebalance if I need to.

I have never had to rebalance (100% equities in 2008 and just contributing), and I am finding out that I don't like selling (bonds or equities). So I will try to cut back on our monthly spending to see if I can avoid selling my bond funds by contributing a little more. But, if I have to rebalance, I will.
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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak »

Josh Brown: I’m here, to remind you
Most importantly, remember your ABC’s: Always Be Cool. You only have control of one thing – your own actions. The other stuff will work itself out, regardless of what you think or say or do. So be cool. Be armed with context, wisdom, patience, humility and a sense of humor. See you on the other side.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger
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