Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

[ks289]

Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.

This all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.

Here’s the thing. Others making the right call and getting out of the market doesn’t upset me, because I know I’m lousy at it and don’t attempt it - so why bother being upset about it? I’ve thought we were headed for a crash more than once in the last few years, but it has never happened before now. Nor do I study charts and position my portfolio accordingly.

Do I sound like I’m mad at the timers? I am trying to calm the bleep down over the scary stuff that’s happening particularly in healthcare and money a bit less so. My finances have been actually mostly secondary to planning for the safety of my patients and staff and myself.

I’m sure there are a certain percentage of timers (probably the ones posting the most) who will outperform the market even over the long term and good luck with that. I think it’s odd to post that stuff on this site though since it is a core principle of the investment philosophy to avoid timing the market for gods sakes!

I’m pretty damn conservative actually so my losses % wise are not (yet) nearly as bad as 2009, although similar to white coat investor the amount is more than 10x what it was back then. As long as things are getting back to normal sometime in the next 5-7 years I’ll be pretty satisfied.

[yoyo6713]

(a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).

The second of those in particular really sticks in my craw.

Reminded me of real estate agents pushing folks to buy houses before 2008.

[WIAV8TOR]

I bought yesterday, maybe should of bought more.

Some of those famous quotes come to mind, ‘blood in the streets’ and all the rest.

[BV3273]

My 401k purchase went through last night. Talk about good timing. Also, picked up some more S&P in my taxable
yesterday afternoon.

Buy early. Buy often.

[InvestorNewb]

OP is a genius.

[john0608]

age 63 - tried timing in 2000 and during other corrections - nerve wracking and caused so much self doubt and second guessing.... so i don't do it.

what i have done past 15 years is put all fixed is in CDs and banks - very little in bond funds - against financial planner advice but i chose it just for times like this (total meltdown of perhaps 80% who knows)

i had always been aggressive with AA - but in january reallocated from 75/25 to 60/40....do i wish i was 50/50 or 40/60? ...yes but since i have all Cd's and cash and have 7 to 10 years living expenses in fixed i put it out of my mind and focus on staying safe, etc.

based on a lifetime of investing, my sense is this will pass and we will be back - it will take 3 to 5 years probably but could be sooner.

stay safe, money is meaningless if covid-19 hits you.....be smart and have faith things will get better once this virus is under conral.

[ValuationsMatter]

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over.

That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue the trend. I'm glad to be exactly where I am, at 50/50 for now.

[CnC]

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over.

That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue the trend. I'm glad to be exactly where I am, at 50/50 for now.

I don't think this is a dead cat bounce by any means. It certainly could be a bull trap though. I hope it's the start of an extended rally, but hoping won't make it so.


My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

[coachd50]

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over.

That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue the trend. I'm glad to be exactly where I am, at 50/50 for now.

I don't think this is a dead cat bounce by any means. It certainly could be a bull trap though. I hope it's the start of an extended rally, but hoping won't make it so.


My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

And...aren't you now doing basically what you said you weren't going to do before?
Hey --no doubt about it, you are looking to "play the market" now. You want to trade. And that is perfectly acceptable. But just call it what it is. You don't need anyone's permission to do it, and based off your previous moves, you have done better off than many here the last 4 weeks by trading.

[BW1985]

My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

I'm just now seeing this thread and I've gotta ask, would you have made the same move if you had it to do over again? Do you feel happy you went to 50/50 or upset that you didn't sell everything? I've never tried market timing so I'm always interested to hear feedback from those who do.

[ValuationsMatter]

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.

Correct. There is NO doubt that the biological/sociological impact of this is just getting started. It's going to get A LOT worse everywhere.

2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.

And we haven't gone through people missing their first paycheck, yet. At least not en masse. When April 1st and May 1st roll around, expect rent and mortgage checks to bounce. Then, let's see where we stand.

3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

Concur on all counts. There are plenty of reasons the biological side will get worse. But if business is reopened in the US, how much does the market care about the biological side?

I do not imagine that we'll see a liquidity crisis in the financial sector with QE Infinity in place. That takes away the critical commonality between the GD and the GFC.

We don't know the answers. It's speculation, at this point. I still think there is some possibility that unfolding events can trigger massive corporate failures, and so I'm on pause until April, as I mentioned before. I don't mind if this is THE rebound. It's should not go back to pre-crisis levels, because some harm has been done that will take years to unwind. So, I still believe there will be time to get the market at a discount, while patience will also help mitigate the risk of near-term disaster. Long story short, I think patience is the appropriate virtue until the smoke clears a bit.

[JAZZISCOOL]

Larry Swedroe posted this on Twitter today:

"Larry Swedroe
@larryswedroe
·
7h
Nikkei now up 20% in three days! Most of market returns occur in very short bursts. Trying to time is not good idea. Study found that over 100 year period eliminate best 100 months return would have been virtually zero. That's 8.5% of months."

The Nikkei index represents Japan's largest stock market.

"Nikkei index ends up 8%; logs largest 1-day point gain in 26 years"

https://japantoday.com/category/busines ... n-26-years

[Ocean77]

Looks like even in Japan, a dead cat bounces!

[Hustlinghustling]

One of the wrong conclusions people come to off the back of BH philosophy is that timers never win. That's patently false. Timers in long run usually don't beat the market, but in the short-term - even by BH principles - anything is fair game. It's obvious being passively invested during a crash will do worse than an active shorter.

The long bull market simply shielded BH's from this scenario for the most part as a passive long position was conveniently also "winning" against all the timers going short. That is, until now, which explains the sense of being blindsided for BH's here with both a tanked portfolio on their hands and a timer coming out on the good side. BH's should realise this outcome of being on the wrong side of a crash is built into a passive approach. And that's fine. It's taking the bad with the good, where the longterm benefit offsets being the one on the short end during a crash. But hopefully all the flippant BH responses to someone taking a short position to the effect of "thanks for the gains to come" will be dialled back with a dose of humility.

[UpsetRaptor]

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over.

That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue the trend. I'm glad to be exactly where I am, at 50/50 for now.

I don't think this is a dead cat bounce by any means. It certainly could be a bull trap though. I hope it's the start of an extended rally, but hoping won't make it so.


My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

Sure, all of those may be true and are scary in the short term, but how many of those are still going to be an issue 6 months from now? Maybe some, maybe none, but remember that the market looks beyond the next quarter. It's quite possible (probable?) that if you wait for all 6 of those points to be non-issues before jumping back in, you'll have missed a very nice bounce-back of some degree.

[coachd50]

One of the wrong conclusions people come to off the back of BH philosophy is that timers never win. That's patently false. Timers in long run usually don't beat the market, but in the short-term - even by BH principles - anything is fair game. It's obvious being passively invested during a crash will do worse than an active shorter.

The long bull market simply shielded BH's from this scenario for the most part as a passive long position was conveniently also "winning" against all the timers going short. That is, until now, which explains the sense of being blindsided for BH's here with both a tanked portfolio on their hands and a timer coming out on the good side. BH's should realise this outcome of being on the wrong side of a crash is built into a passive approach. And that's fine. It's taking the bad with the good, where the longterm benefit offsets being the one on the short end during a crash. But hopefully all the flippant BH responses to someone taking a short position to the effect of "thanks for the gains to come" will be dialled back with a dose of humility.

I think you are highlighting the key points of John Bogle's philosophy here. Probability and time.

To put it simply, you are talking about two different games so to speak. In one, the ONLY thing that matters is long term. That is the only "win", finishing your working days with "enough". It isn't about picking up gains here and there, or "making money" during the journey. It is about the best thing to do with the money you have left over from leaving below your means. Numerous examples have shown that the BH philosophy is the best chance to maximize the amount one has when you stop working.

It isn't about using the stock market to make money here and there. It isn't about ever considering the short term, with the VERY notable exception of recognizing that once one has celebrated more birthdays than he/she will celebrate in the future, the "long term" is becoming increasingly shorter and necessary steps must be taken to ensure you have "enough".

I think two key elements with regards to this board (and discussions such as this) are 1) As you mentioned, a long bull market which potentially tints everyone's glasses rose, and 2) the growing number of high earners here. As a teacher in the south I realize my teaching income will never surpass $60,000 in my lifetime. That means that my situation will be different than those who expect to make 3-4 times that a year during their prime earning years. That doesn't change the fact the best chance for me to have "enough" when I retire is consistent investing of leftover income into low cost broad-based index funds with a proper asset allocation that will change over time.

[CnC]

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over.

That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue the trend. I'm glad to be exactly where I am, at 50/50 for now.

I don't think this is a dead cat bounce by any means. It certainly could be a bull trap though. I hope it's the start of an extended rally, but hoping won't make it so.


My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

Sure, all of those may be true and are scary in the short term, but how many of those are still going to be an issue 6 months from now? Maybe some, maybe none, but remember that the market looks beyond the next quarter. It's quite possible (probable?) that if you wait for all 6 of those points to be non-issues before jumping back in, you'll have missed a very nice bounce-back of some degree.

No no no, I'm not a doomer who thinks we are headed for certain ruin. If I were I wouldn't be investing money back in the market.

I just think it's a bit premature to say, ok whew we are all done, now the market has nowhere to go but up.

[CnC]

My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics.

If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong.

1)The us cases are still in exponential growth.
2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet.
3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment.
4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders.
5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay?
6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and for 90% of Americans it's basically life as usual with a few minor inconvenience.
What happens when life gets hard for the majority?

I'm just now seeing this thread and I've gotta ask, would you have made the same move if you had it to do over again? Do you feel happy you went to 50/50 or upset that you didn't sell everything? I've never tried market timing so I'm always interested to hear feedback from those who do.

Of course I wish I went more cash, I also wish I bought Bitcoin at $100 each and sold at $10000 each. But I do not regret my decision.

I had quite a bit of money and I was ok on missing it and losing out on 1-3% of gains on the amount I took out. But I would have had some heartburn about missing out on 3% of my entire portfolio.

So, while I would have done it differently if I knew exactly what would have happened. I am satisfied with my results.

[ValuationsMatter]

I'll admit several good days in a row makes me ambivalent. On the one hand, I'm a little nervous that I didn't get back to my AA and it's starting to 'feel' like the market is through the worst of it. On the other hand, today's bounce brings my portfolio to a net positive for the year, after dropping ~$50k despite excellent 'timing'.

My analytical side remains exactly where I was in the last couple of comments, though. I'm not taking action until the end of next week at the earliest. I have to sit on my hands, though. They're begging me to do something... lol. I think there's a lot of jubilance, this week. I think a lot of people are reacting to good news every day, but I still believe the worst of the virus lays ahead. I suspect there's gonna be some bad news along with it.

I also admit I'm a little surprised that the market had an amazing day after the announcement of the biggest unemployment jump in history. It was so big, I question its accuracy. Could it be that they can't keep up with the amount of processing that has to be done? Even if it's an accurate representation, the number is so big I can understand it being priced in, but I cannot understand it being good news. So, more than the market's jump on the previous days, I'm very skeptical of today's rally.

[JAZZISCOOL]

Per the Wall St Journal 3/26/20, the bear market is over and we have now entered a bull market since stocks rallied again today:

"Dow Escapes Bear Market With a 6% Rally
The blue-chip index is now up 20% from its low, qualifying as a new bull market"

"U.S. stocks soared higher Thursday, even after data showed the ranks of unemployed Americans surged in the past week, signaling that investors remain hopeful that a $2 trillion stimulus package can help save the country’s weakening economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 6.2%, putting the blue-chip index more than 20% above its recent low, a move that starts a new bull market and marks the shortest bear market in the index’s history. The S&P 500 gained 6.1%, and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 5.6%."

[Perkunas]

Did my best to liquidate about 28k of Fido Total Market Index just before close today. Not sure if I got the orders in in time.

Hard to believe the market will not turn south again after this past week of gains.

NYC is at the tip of the iceberg and many have fled NYC similar to what happened in Italy last month, so I'm of the mind things will get worse before they get better all along the eastern seaboard. Virus seems to have taken a foothold in New Orleans and it ain't cold down there.

[moneyman11]

I am shocked at the number of epidemiologist market timers that are on bogleheads! Who knew?

[ValuationsMatter]

I am shocked at the number of epidemiologist market timers that are on bogleheads! Who knew?

Thanks for your contribution.

[kiki]

I caught up on this thread today from early March. It's interesting to see how the discussion evolved.

My take: too many people are focused on market timing and not actually looking at the economic impacts.

I'd recommend looking at China and see how successful they are able to get back to work and restart their economy. Until that happens, we're all in limbo. This means we'll probably have at least a couple of months of lower economic activity.

I can't see why markets would go up. There's going to be more economic bad news. Bad earnings, people not buying cars, traveling, going out to restaurants, etc. Until this settles, why would the market go up? And going back to Asia, if they haven't fully recovered, how long before it happens here, where we're still seeing exponential growth in confirmed cases?

The bad news is priced into the market, which it wasn't at the time OP made his move. I suspect now we'll have less big swings, but instead a gradual drop as the impact on companies/earnings, economic indicators, etc, are reported.

And congrats to CnC for making and posting about this move.

[ValuationsMatter]

Unless there's actually an economic collapse, I do not think the outlook will get much worse than today. The shock of Trump's statement yesterday is sinking in. 100-240k dead is more than many investors expected. There are rumors that margin calls on banks may cause a financial industry disaster. I do not believe it will, as long as the Gov/FedRes is backing the banks, corporations, individual Real Estate investments, & even individuals with 'helicopter money'. I think the virus news is likely to get better from here, not worse. The number of cases & deaths per day will peak within the next 2 weeks, but that's expected now and investors have now grasped the exponential nature of the virus.

At 25-ish % down, the market has priced in a lot of bad economic news ahead, and we will experience it, but I do not expect a collapse. So, I am more confident we are chronologically nearing a bottom, even as I expect to retest the lows. CAPE is near 23, which is in line with the modern trend line. Buffett indicator is at less than 115 and also, finally, in line with its modern trend line. Therefore, I'm moving up to almost 70% stocks, which is a conservative long-term target asset allocation at my age. I finally feel confident that I'm invested at a fair price for the companies I'm buying.

That said, if they continue significantly drop, I will get 'greedy'. Bear markets have a tendency to go lower for a longer period, but this one is so specifically tied to the virus that I think when the virus news gets better and people get back to work, optimism will return. If I'm wrong and this is more in the vein of a great recession/depression, then I'll just have to be content with missing the first 20-30% of the drop.

[keelerjr12]

Unless there's actually an economic collapse, I do not think the outlook will get much worse than today. The shock of Trump's statement yesterday is sinking in. 100-240k dead is more than many investors expected. There are rumors that margin calls on banks may cause a financial industry disaster. I do not believe it will, as long as the Gov/FedRes is backing the banks, corporations, individual Real Estate investments, & even individuals with 'helicopter money'. I think the virus news is likely to get better from here, not worse. The number of cases & deaths per day will peak within the next 2 weeks, but that's expected now and investors have now grasped the exponential nature of the virus.

At 25-ish % down, the market has priced in a lot of bad economic news ahead, and we will experience it, but I do not expect a collapse. So, I am more confident we are chronologically nearing a bottom, even as I expect to retest the lows. CAPE is near 23, which is in line with the modern trend line. Buffett indicator is at less than 115 and also, finally, in line with its modern trend line. Therefore, I'm moving up to almost 70% stocks, which is a conservative long-term target asset allocation at my age. I finally feel confident that I'm invested at a fair price for the companies I'm buying.

That said, if they continue significantly drop, I will get 'greedy'. Bear markets have a tendency to go lower for a longer period, but this one is so specifically tied to the virus that I think when the virus news gets better and people get back to work, optimism will return. If I'm wrong and this is more in the vein of a great recession/depression, then I'll just have to be content with missing the first 20-30% of the drop.

What happens when they start publishing GDP numbers and the Buffet indicator shows much higher (due to the decreased denominator)?

[ValuationsMatter]

I considered that, but thought expounding on it would be a waste. Long-term GDP will not be affected by more than the change in the population percentage. Since the majority of the losses will be amongst the elderly, it's actually likely to impact GDP less. Perhaps shaving a few % off of the old GDP would be appropriate as a conservative approach. This is based on an assumption that spending and consumer behavior doesn't fundamentally change. It also presumes a return to normalcy, as opposed to dealing with a new strain of COVID, or similar, every year. It's also why looking at both a long-term valuation metric like CAPE, and the short term ones we're used to is important to me.

At the moment, I think the price has actually significantly exceeded even the short term GDP drop. Though, I agree that it's likely to rebound faster than GDP does.

[thx1138]

Well it is past the end of March and the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned after a pretty significant market drop. I haven't tracked all the posts in the thread but it sounds like market went down enough and OP is back in enough that this is now essentially guaranteed to have been a net positive move likely by a significant amount.

When I posted way back when I said I wouldn't do this and it would be better to just turn off the news and ignore it. But I also sincerely wished the OP luck and he sure got it! Glad it worked out for you and hope you enjoy the portfolio boost in troubling times!

And of course to everyone stay safe and healthy

[origami]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

[Ekhanomist]

be more economic bad news. Bad earnings, people not buying cars, traveling, going out to restaurants, etc. Until this settles, why would the market go up? And going back to Asia, if they haven't fully recovered, how long before it happens here, where we're still seeing exponential growth in confirmed cases?

The bad news is priced into the market, which it wasn't at the time OP made his move. I suspect now we'll have less big swings, but instead a gradual drop as the impact on companies/earnings, economic indicators, etc, are reported.

And congrats to CnC for making and posting about this move.

Even if the news continues to be bad for the foreseeable future, none of that means the market will go down. We saw this when the terrible weekly unemployment claims came out--the market went up! Because it doesn't matter whether the news is good or bad--what matter is whether it's good or bad relative to expectations.

Part of what is priced in right now is the risk of extreme economic collapse. So even worse-than-expected news might cause the market to go up if it also shows that the extreme scenario is becoming less likely.

Agreed that big swings are unlikely going forward. A lot of the initial uncertainty has been resolved--we have much narrower confidence bands over the future path of the virus and its economic impact.

[rich126]

Right now a lot of bad "likely" things are priced in, what isn't priced in are the unknowns, for obvious reasons. We have seen a lot of quarterly reports yet. And I believe too many think a rapid recovery will occur. If travelers don't flock back to traveling then hotels and the tourism industry is going to get hit again. We still don't know how many people will be w/o paychecks for how long.

I just saw today that Wells Fargo has stopped accepting loan requests

Wells Fargo is bowing out of a new federal program aimed at helping small businesses retain workers and pay bills during the coronavirus pandemic. The bank announced late Sunday that it would no longer accept new loan applications under the government's Paycheck Protection Program,

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paycheck-p ... -business/

I think right now people are hoping for the best but that may not happen. I sure would expect a lot of swings over the next 6 months and sure don't expect to see the highs for quite some time so I think the OP has a lot of time to selectively pick up funds/stocks.

[Elysium]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

Last time we heard from him was on March 26th, and at that time he was still doing DCA back in. He also made a few new predictions that the market has more room to go down another 15%-20%, don't know if he changed plans. IIRC, the original idea was for him to get back in end of March. There is not evidence he did that.

[origami]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

Last time we heard from him was on March 26th, and at that time he was still doing DCA back in. He also made a few new predictions that the market has more room to go down another 15%-20%, don't know if he changed plans. IIRC, the original idea was for him to get back in end of March. There is not evidence he did that.

Yeah. I see that on March 22nd he is talking about "buying in 10-20k a day that the markets drop". In his other comments his mood is that the market will keep falling. I don't know what exactly he did with the money. His rule on how to get back into the market seems a bit vague.

[deltaneutral83]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

Last time we heard from him was on March 26th, and at that time he was still doing DCA back in. He also made a few new predictions that the market has more room to go down another 15%-20%, don't know if he changed plans. IIRC, the original idea was for him to get back in end of March. There is not evidence he did that.

Well, as of 3/26 at the close, the S&P was at roughly 2,629. If we took a 15% haircut off that it would be 2,234 which we hit and fell even lower just three days earlier. So essentially, one hypothetically saying on a Thursday "We may go back to Monday's lows" isn't exactly a saying a whole lot??

[Elysium]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

Last time we heard from him was on March 26th, and at that time he was still doing DCA back in. He also made a few new predictions that the market has more room to go down another 15%-20%, don't know if he changed plans. IIRC, the original idea was for him to get back in end of March. There is not evidence he did that.

Well, as of 3/26 at the close, the S&P was at roughly 2,629. If we took a 15% haircut off that it would be 2,234 which we hit and fell even lower just three days earlier. So essentially, one hypothetically saying on a Thursday "We may go back to Monday's lows" isn't exactly a saying a whole lot??

So long as OP provides a timely update on when he actually gets back in fully to his original allocation, there is no issue with whatever else his feelings of market are. OTOH, if he shows up a month later, suppose when S&P is at 3,300 and say, well guess what I got back in at 2,700, that would make this whole thread a farce exercise. He has been good about providing updates so far, so hopefully that won't happen.

[ValuationsMatter]

... the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned ...

I haven't seen any evidence that OP got back in.

He DCAed back in, though not exactly in line with his original plan. Even so, I'd guess he's either all the way back in or, at a minimum, most of the way back to his original AA.

Elysium, I'm willing to believe whatever the OP has to say, at this point. He's been blasted for being up front about it, before.

Here's my little update. I believe I already posted here in this thread about moving to 70/30, or if not its in another thread. I was really happy to see today's rally, but I'm not so sure that I believe it. I suspect we'll see more volatility as a result. I'm considering dropping back to 50/50. However, for the moment, I don't have sufficient cause to do so. So, I'll continue to analyze. I believe today's rally was somewhat the result of shorts getting a squeeze, but more so of big money deciding to get some of their money in while valuations are reasonable.

This virus plateauing is only partially true. It still has yet to do its worst in the American heartland away from the cities. Also, yesterday was a bit of an anomaly. Today's 'new cases' numbers are already exceeding them with a lot of the day left to go..

[CT-Scott]

I wish I still had some stock to sell somewhere, so that I could have sold it today. Today's big day up makes zero sense to me.

[Livelife2fullest]

I wish I still had some stock to sell somewhere, so that I could have sold it today. Today's big day up makes zero sense to me.

Does the market ever really make sense? It’s irrational, oftentimes does the opposite of what one expects.

Been following this thread, curious to OP’s outlook on DCA’ing back in (if it’s not already all in).

[CT-Scott]

Does the market ever really make sense? It’s irrational, oftentimes does the opposite of what one expects.

Well, today's movement makes more sense to me after reading this:

Federal Reserve to backstop Paycheck Protection Program loans
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal- ... 49870.html

[Livelife2fullest]

Does the market ever really make sense? It’s irrational, oftentimes does the opposite of what one expects.

Well, today's movement makes more sense to me after reading this:

Federal Reserve to backstop Paycheck Protection Program loans
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal- ... 49870.html

I think the market was up on some positive news that the virus has plateaued in New York (biggest hot spot in US), and the numbers in parts of Europe (Italy and Spain) are going down. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel. Still not out of the woods yet, by a long shot though.

[ValuationsMatter]

Unless there's actually an economic collapse, I do not think the outlook will get much worse than today. The shock of Trump's statement yesterday is sinking in. 100-240k dead is more than many investors expected. There are rumors that margin calls on banks may cause a financial industry disaster. I do not believe it will, as long as the Gov/FedRes is backing the banks, corporations, individual Real Estate investments, & even individuals with 'helicopter money'. I think the virus news is likely to get better from here, not worse. The number of cases & deaths per day will peak within the next 2 weeks, but that's expected now and investors have now grasped the exponential nature of the virus.

At 25-ish % down, the market has priced in a lot of bad economic news ahead, and we will experience it, but I do not expect a collapse. So, I am more confident we are chronologically nearing a bottom, even as I expect to retest the lows. CAPE is near 23, which is in line with the modern trend line. Buffett indicator is at less than 115 and also, finally, in line with its modern trend line. Therefore, I'm moving up to almost 70% stocks, which is a conservative long-term target asset allocation at my age. I finally feel confident that I'm invested at a fair price for the companies I'm buying.

That said, if they continue significantly drop, I will get 'greedy'. Bear markets have a tendency to go lower for a longer period, but this one is so specifically tied to the virus that I think when the virus news gets better and people get back to work, optimism will return. If I'm wrong and this is more in the vein of a great recession/depression, then I'll just have to be content with missing the first 20-30% of the drop.

Booyah! Feeling pretty good about April 1st's move now. And, for that matter, I feel good about the entire DCA move out & back into the market. Overall, my stock portion (70%) of my portfolio avoided and reentered after an average of a 25% drop. The OP seems to have dropped out of sight, but would love to hear back from him, and how he's doing.

Today, I really had to sit on my hands, and considered selling 10%, but that would just be a bridge too far. I do not purport to know the future, and though I feel emboldened by my avoidance of the '18 drop & this year's, I still don't believe short-term predictions are worthwhile. So, I will avoid selling off unless we go considerably higher. Meanwhile, I feel very nicely positioned to respond to whatever the market does from here. I am going to attempt to further analyze the impact of this short-term GDP loss on long-term valuation metrics and whether or not current/future valuations are/stay within reason. Other than that, I think I'll stay right where I am. If we retest lows, I'll get more aggressive as I indicated on the 1st.

[ValuationsMatter]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... =home-page

I think that guy may be wrong about the likely depth of this recession, because the central banks have reacted so decisively. However, it really stands to reason that at 15-17% from the peak, we are capped on the upside by something less than the peak, while the bottom could still fall out as investors realize that consumer spending will not recover for quite some time. More risk to the downside than upside warrants a more conservative posture, and I am resistant to do it, but am still considering pulling back on my AA, again.

[minimalistmarc]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... =home-page

I think that guy may be wrong about the likely depth of this recession, because the central banks have reacted so decisively. However, it really stands to reason that at 15-17% from the peak, we are capped on the upside by something less than the peak, while the bottom could still fall out as investors realize that consumer spending will not recover for quite some time. More risk to the downside than upside warrants a more conservative posture, and I am resistant to do it, but am still considering pulling back on my AA, again.

“It really stands to reason”.

Unfortunately the markets don’t care about the well reasoned opinions of intelligent people.

Stop thinking so much. You can’t become the smart money until you realise you know nothing (and probably less) than all the other investors in the market.

[ValuationsMatter]

"Don't use your brain. Just buy at any price without consideration for the value of your purchase." You're just attacking a choice of wording rather than the argument I've put forth. Do you believe there's no "reason" to think that we're capped by something short of the pre-crisis highs? Do you believe that the market can't retest or even break through the March lows? If not, then what have you contributed?

[ValuationsMatter]

Reduced AA to 50/50 after the 3% bounce, today. This is no more than market timing, I admit. Valuations are reasonable in the long term, but 16% from peak means upside is capped, and downside is not. So, I'll take my chances.

[jjface]

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today.

Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess.

[Small Savanna]

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today.

Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess.

So to make this work you have to be right twice - getting out on February 5th was prescient, but not getting back in on March 23rd might have been a mistake. Or maybe not . . .

[1130Super]

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today.

Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess.

If he’s willing to make a guarantee he should of shorted the market with all the capital he could get his hands on via credit cards and a HELOC

[jjface]

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today.

Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess.

So to make this work you have to be right twice - getting out on February 5th was prescient, but not getting back in on March 23rd might have been a mistake. Or maybe not . . .

Not really. He got out at the right time and basically has leisure to get back in. It is pretty hard not to get back in at a lower point. It may not be the lowest but he'll still have made a good move whenever he does get back in. More luck though than anything as shown by his inability to consistently predict the market. Next time or the next or the next ... he could get out at the wrong time and make a mess of things.

[BogleBoogie]

Buy high sell low? Seems like you need more than luck.