Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

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sergeant
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by sergeant »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
hoops777
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Willthrill will you please post the brokerage transaction records,account numbers and SS number? I mean,it is just incomprehensible that anyone could have been concerned enough to take actions with markets in all time high territory and huge problems in China that could spread worldwide. Buffet,Swedroe,Lynch....Willthrill :D
Just kidding but good call.

I said the same thing in February and my investment acumen is second only to Michael Jordan’s baseball skills :D

You might,might be able to count the number of people in the investment world on one hand who saw what we have now coming back then. Most of the country being shut down,etc. was not on people’s minds. The market having a good chance for a big dip, that is another story and that made sense.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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hisdudeness
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hisdudeness »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Bogleheads are smart and successful, for the most part. And competitive.
And can be envious, in times like these. You handled it well Willthrill. CnC is showing patience too, and I wish you both well. In your shoes, I would have had only 2 words in response to some of the posts.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:25 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Willthrill will you please post the brokerage transaction records,account numbers and SS number? I mean,it is just incomprehensible that anyone could have been concerned enough to take actions with markets in all time high territory and huge problems in China that could spread worldwide. Buffet,Swedroe,Lynch....Willthrill :D
Just kidding but good call.

I said the same thing in February and my investment acumen is second only to Michael Jordan’s baseball skills :D

You might,might be able to count the number of people in the investment world on one hand who saw what we have now coming back then. Most of the country being shut down,etc. was not on people’s minds. The market having a good chance for a big dip, that is another story and that made sense.
I've no doubt that many of the responses to my decision were little more than sour grapes. Many here would rather stick to dogma and lose their shirt than resist the dogma and retain their hard earned money.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

hisdudeness wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:26 pm Bogleheads are smart and successful, for the most part. And competitive.
And can be envious, in times like these. You handled it well Willthrill. CnC is showing patience too, and I wish you both well. In your shoes, I would have had only 2 words in response to some of the posts.
Thanks. I tried to be as patient as I could, but my patience is finite.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Danzangdc
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Danzangdc »

It's funny reading the early posts in this thread with people telling the OP he is young and foolish and needs to stay away from the news and stop worrying. It's just the flu, etc.
Danzangdc
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Danzangdc »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
+1. The only reason the markets were not moving down from mid-January - mid-February was greed. No one wanted to be the first to sell and miss out on some final possible gains from a strong economy. Then once it was clear that people were starting to sell - FWOOM triggers pulled all over the place.
jjface
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:09 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:23 pmMarket timing is risky. It is not a sure thing.
All roads carry risk.

Buy-and-hold didn't work for those investing in Russian or Chinese markets in the first half of the 20th century. It hasn't work for Japanese investors in 30+ years. That doesn't mean that it's a bad strategy; I believe that it's an excellent one. But it's not the only reasonable path, and it's not inherently safer than all others.
I am not totally against market timing nor do I hold firm to buy and hold as if it was the greatest all the time in all situations. I like to ramp up my equities once the sell off is well under way. I don't think I could predict when markets will fall in the future so don't play that game. Now that is certainly much riskier than buy and hold.
Randolph Mortimer
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Randolph Mortimer »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
I don't see any personal attacks or mockery. Those posts must have been deleted. I do see some well-deserved criticism, which some people seem to have a problem with, for whatever reason.
jjface
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.

If something was 100% clear then you would have sold everything and scraped together everything you could to bet against the market. I haven't heard anyone do that. Not even close. The op for instance sold 1/3 of his stocks. I guess that makes his vision 33.3% clear.
Last edited by jjface on Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Will I do want to say thanks for atleast having my back when the torches and pitchforks came out. I'll remember it man.

I was feeling pretty darn lonely for awhile.
LawProf
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by LawProf »

jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:27 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.

If something was 100% clear then you would have sold everything and scraped together everything you could to bet against the market. I haven't heard anyone do that. Not even close. The op for instance sold 1/3 of his stocks. I guess that makes his vision 33.3% clear.
I did sell everything. I posted about it here 4 weeks ago and got roasted. I don't short stocks. I also wrote these words on March 1st when questioned why I was so certain a crash was coming:

"Obviously I don't know anything and the world is littered with false proclamations of doom from crises past. So the idea that I can perceive something that most cannot is quite stupid. I get that. But this is what I see: the Coronavirus is going to spread to all parts of the world. We're actually in the early stages of this process. Quarantine is the method of choice for dealing with the virus where it has broken out. Therefore, many more parts of the world have a quarantine in their future -- 24 first responders in Washington state were quarantined yesterday. The gravity of the situation is going to start dawning on everyone in America and that is when the true panic here will ensue. Right now, we've barely had a market correction. When this thing starts affecting the lives of everyday people here (e.g., we're having a faculty meeting next week to discuss virus-planning contingencies -- a first), I think the sell-off will take place in earnest. That's just the fear side of the equation. Economically, the disruption of world supply is largely unknown at this point. Tons of uncertainty there. There's also political risk -- China, in particular -- that is out there. Hong Kong already has little patience for mainland China -- this situation could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The drop in the market last week didn't bother me. The reaction of governments around the world -- Japan closing schools, Saudi Arabia stopping travel to Mecca, the situation in South Korea, whatever is happening in Iran -- did.

On the other hand, maybe the heat of summer will save the day."

At some point last month, the current situation became a certainty of math. The slowness of the market to react to what was obvious mystifies me, except that it is emotionally hard to let go of the bull when it has been good to you for so long.
jjface
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:40 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:27 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.

If something was 100% clear then you would have sold everything and scraped together everything you could to bet against the market. I haven't heard anyone do that. Not even close. The op for instance sold 1/3 of his stocks. I guess that makes his vision 33.3% clear.
I did sell everything. I posted about it here 4 weeks ago and got roasted. I don't short stocks. I also wrote these words on March 1st when questioned why I was so certain a crash was coming:

"Obviously I don't know anything and the world is littered with false proclamations of doom from crises past. So the idea that I can perceive something that most cannot is quite stupid. I get that. But this is what I see: the Coronavirus is going to spread to all parts of the world. We're actually in the early stages of this process. Quarantine is the method of choice for dealing with the virus where it has broken out. Therefore, many more parts of the world have a quarantine in their future -- 24 first responders in Washington state were quarantined yesterday. The gravity of the situation is going to start dawning on everyone in America and that is when the true panic here will ensue. Right now, we've barely had a market correction. When this thing starts affecting the lives of everyday people here (e.g., we're having a faculty meeting next week to discuss virus-planning contingencies -- a first), I think the sell-off will take place in earnest. That's just the fear side of the equation. Economically, the disruption of world supply is largely unknown at this point. Tons of uncertainty there. There's also political risk -- China, in particular -- that is out there. Hong Kong already has little patience for mainland China -- this situation could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The drop in the market last week didn't bother me. The reaction of governments around the world -- Japan closing schools, Saudi Arabia stopping travel to Mecca, the situation in South Korea, whatever is happening in Iran -- did.

On the other hand, maybe the heat of summer will save the day."

At some point last month, the current situation became a certainty of math. The slowness of the market to react to what was obvious mystifies me, except that it is emotionally hard to let go of the bull when it has been good to you for so long.
Oh okay. To be honest I was riding roller coasters at Disney when you were predicting doom and gloom lol. I freely admit it with no shame.
hoops777
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:40 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:27 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.

If something was 100% clear then you would have sold everything and scraped together everything you could to bet against the market. I haven't heard anyone do that. Not even close. The op for instance sold 1/3 of his stocks. I guess that makes his vision 33.3% clear.
I did sell everything. I posted about it here 4 weeks ago and got roasted. I don't short stocks. I also wrote these words on March 1st when questioned why I was so certain a crash was coming:

"Obviously I don't know anything and the world is littered with false proclamations of doom from crises past. So the idea that I can perceive something that most cannot is quite stupid. I get that. But this is what I see: the Coronavirus is going to spread to all parts of the world. We're actually in the early stages of this process. Quarantine is the method of choice for dealing with the virus where it has broken out. Therefore, many more parts of the world have a quarantine in their future -- 24 first responders in Washington state were quarantined yesterday. The gravity of the situation is going to start dawning on everyone in America and that is when the true panic here will ensue. Right now, we've barely had a market correction. When this thing starts affecting the lives of everyday people here (e.g., we're having a faculty meeting next week to discuss virus-planning contingencies -- a first), I think the sell-off will take place in earnest. That's just the fear side of the equation. Economically, the disruption of world supply is largely unknown at this point. Tons of uncertainty there. There's also political risk -- China, in particular -- that is out there. Hong Kong already has little patience for mainland China -- this situation could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The drop in the market last week didn't bother me. The reaction of governments around the world -- Japan closing schools, Saudi Arabia stopping travel to Mecca, the situation in South Korea, whatever is happening in Iran -- did.

On the other hand, maybe the heat of summer will save the day."

At some point last month, the current situation became a certainty of math. The slowness of the market to react to what was obvious mystifies me, except that it is emotionally hard to let go of the bull when it has been good to you for so long.
[/quote



I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.

I've never once recommended that anyone follow my own strategy or any other involving trend following/timing on any level. On the contrary, when I do give advice, it pertains to buy-and-hold because I think that the lion's share of people out there are better suited for it. Those that aren't will hopefully discover through their own investigation that there are other plausible strategies.

The advice of Gamaliel to the Sanhedrin comes to mind. In this context, he would likely say something like "Don't worry about the timers. If they're wrong, they'll be shown to be so in the course of time. But if they're right, why would that cause you angst?"
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
james22
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by james22 »

It'll be interesting to see what this forum learns from this.

1. Will the dogmatic become less so? Or will they double-down?

2. Will those practicing some form of TAA learn to disregard the dogmatic? Or will they leave the forum?
Randolph Mortimer
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Randolph Mortimer »

james22 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 pm It'll be interesting to see what this forum learns from this.

1. Will the dogmatic become less so? Or will they double-down?

2. Will those practicing some form of TAA learn to disregard the dogmatic? Or will they leave the forum?
Don't be coy. What do you think the forum should learn? What exactly do the dogmatic do when they double down?
goodoboy
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by goodoboy »

climber2020 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:02 am If you wouldn't mind to stick around and update this thread for the next few years to let us all know what happens, that'd be incredibly useful.

Unlike this person who up and vanished once things didn't work out as planned: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=203792
Thank you for sharing the link.
BogleBoogie
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by BogleBoogie »

CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
I'm doing the opposite of you for the same long term reason.
CobraKai
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CobraKai »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.

People behave much worse after losing money.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.
This is the largest downturn the market has seen since the great financial crisis over a decade ago when the forum was tiny, and most of the current members, including myself, were not on the forum back then. Until recently, most timers, including myself, were lagging the buy-and-holders (an expected result in a bull market), which they were apparently large fine with, though anyone can see in my trend following thread that I was still ribbed a lot. Now that the tables have been turned, we've seen much more animosity toward timers.
CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm People behave much worse after losing money.
True.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
goodoboy
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by goodoboy »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:50 pm
CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.
This is the largest downturn the market has seen since the great financial crisis over a decade ago when the forum was tiny, and most of the current members, including myself, were not on the forum back then. Until recently, most timers, including myself, were lagging the buy-and-holders (an expected result in a bull market), which they were apparently large fine with, though anyone can see in my trend following thread that I was still ribbed a lot. Now that the tables have been turned, we've seen much more animosity toward timers.
CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm People behave much worse after losing money.
True.
Hello willthrill81,

I love the conversation.

Here is my favorite quote from Master P "If it make money, it make sense". If market timing makes money, it makes sense. If dollar cost average over time, it make sense.

But guess what. I talk to about 3 pissed off guys at work near the age of 60 years old who lost about $300K of their retirement fund. NONE of them are happy to talk to.

So guess what, I better start paying attention. I am 40 years old, and when I get near retirement age, I will have to be a market timer. I mean, it is just common sense to me at that age.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by firebirdparts »

CnC, are you getting back in?
A fool and your money are soon partners
CoastalWinds
Posts: 1063
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:28 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CoastalWinds »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:58 pm Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off.

We appear to be running a bit farther down the line but it's pretty bad now and the bodies haven't hit the floor yet.


But, with the fed and the us govt going full out to support the economy we may very well see a V shaped recession.

I put another 25k in today to make up for sitting out yesterday.

$120k cash left to go.
Would you mind sharing what your plan is for getting the “$120k cash left to go” into the market?
goodoboy
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2011 8:05 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by goodoboy »

CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Good work CnC and good decision making. You did well.

If you pull up a monthly chart http://prntscr.com/rkhfdm for you as I do some day trading at times.

You can see from the monthly chart, price has reached support. When prices reaches support, technically you want to buy. So what you can do is start investing your cash into the market now in increments. Or you can wait for a bullish bar for April to start re-investing your capital. Just incase price goes down some more.

But from the looks of that big bear bar currently in March, AND if you really trying to time it right, I would hold.

Just some options as I have thought about pulling out myself. But don't have the balls to do it now. I will just stick to buy and hold and dollar cost average. But for sure when I get to age 55 or close to retirement, I now know better to pay attention and be ready to time in.
james22
Posts: 1731
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:22 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by james22 »

Randolph Mortimer wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:45 pm
james22 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 pm It'll be interesting to see what this forum learns from this.

1. Will the dogmatic become less so? Or will they double-down?

2. Will those practicing some form of TAA learn to disregard the dogmatic? Or will they leave the forum?
Don't be coy. What do you think the forum should learn? What exactly do the dogmatic do when they double down?
Coy? I'd have thought it'd be obvious what I favor - free and open discussion of Bogle-approved TAA. Some might have protected themselves to the tune of 15% (20% including Bogle-approved Funny Money) if they'd have been able to hear the gathering storm arguments.

In the absence of that, I'd favor some bucking up and not letting the dogmatic comments bother them. No one should allow anonymous internet criticism to keep them from making the best financial decisions they can. Learn from constructive criticism, disregard the rest.

Doubling down? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails

Stay the course works for many (or even most). But it does not always work, and not for everyone.
Hustlinghustling
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling »

CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:28 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Will I do want to say thanks for atleast having my back when the torches and pitchforks came out. I'll remember it man.

I was feeling pretty darn lonely for awhile.
Aw c'mon, it's part of the fun right? Markettiming on BH is like walking into a church as Christopher Hitchens. You know what's coming :twisted: :)
ks289
Posts: 655
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 12:42 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ks289 »

Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
User avatar
hisdudeness
Posts: 126
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hisdudeness »

CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm
CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.

People behave much worse after losing money.
Some people here are suffering from Irritable Downturn Syndrome, or IDS.
Trust me, I'm a doctor*
njdealguy
Posts: 171
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:15 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by njdealguy »

CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm
CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.

People behave much worse after losing money.
Great decision! Wish I listened when read your post back in February and have myself liquidated my equity based investments on march 4th after a dead cat bounce of dow back to 27k after the super Tuesday primary day.

Think some market timing can make sense in situations like this where it seemed rather obvious for past couple months. Did a calculation of purchasing into VTI in the year I started working first job in March, 2003 (priced at $40 a share then), and my return by staying put would have netted me an annualized return of 6.4% over 17 years. Now with successfully market timing the great recession of 2008 as well as current bear market while accounting for selling at 10% below the market peak and buying back in at 10% above the bottom the annualized return over 17 years comes to 13.8%.

If one could forsee and successfully market time these two bear markets, it can potentially bring one just that much closer to financial independence!
coachd50
Posts: 457
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:12 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by coachd50 »

njdealguy wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:19 am
CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm
CobraKai wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view.
:thumbsup

Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my methods, through posts and PMs.
With over 17,000 posts, you must have been here for awhile. Do you think this is a recent phenomenon? I don't recall too many snarky posts here until recently.

People behave much worse after losing money.
Great decision! Wish I listened when read your post back in February and have myself liquidated my equity based investments on march 4th after a dead cat bounce of dow back to 27k after the super Tuesday primary day.

Think some market timing can make sense in situations like this where it seemed rather obvious for past couple months. Did a calculation of purchasing into VTI in the year I started working first job in March, 2003 (priced at $40 a share then), and my return by staying put would have netted me an annualized return of 6.4% over 17 years. Now with successfully market timing the great recession of 2008 as well as current bear market while accounting for selling at 10% below the market peak and buying back in at 10% above the bottom the annualized return over 17 years comes to 13.8%.

If one could forsee and successfully market time these two bear markets, it can potentially bring one just that much closer to financial independence!
Would probably be easier (and quicker) to make two bets on Red at the roulette wheel
hoops777
Posts: 3412
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 »

ks289 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 am Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
This all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.
Last edited by hoops777 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
Topic Author
CnC
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

firebirdparts wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:45 pm CnC, are you getting back in?
Yep
CoastalWinds wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:48 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:58 pm Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off.

We appear to be running a bit farther down the line but it's pretty bad now and the bodies haven't hit the floor yet.


But, with the fed and the us govt going full out to support the economy we may very well see a V shaped recession.

I put another 25k in today to make up for sitting out yesterday.

$120k cash left to go.
Would you mind sharing what your plan is for getting the “$120k cash left to go” into the market?

I am buying in 10-20k a day that the markets drop.

I'll hold off once I get to ±40k and put that in once it appears that the market has bottomed out. That way if I miss the bottom and buy in on a higher place with that 40k I won't be hurt.


I'm still putting 70k in this year through payroll deductions on a biweekly payments. I still think there is a good 5-15% left to drop possibly.


If all goes as good as I hope I may leave 2020 with what I started with.
smitcat
Posts: 6947
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:51 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

CnC wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:45 pm CnC, are you getting back in?
Yep
CoastalWinds wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:48 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:58 pm Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off.

We appear to be running a bit farther down the line but it's pretty bad now and the bodies haven't hit the floor yet.


But, with the fed and the us govt going full out to support the economy we may very well see a V shaped recession.

I put another 25k in today to make up for sitting out yesterday.

$120k cash left to go.
Would you mind sharing what your plan is for getting the “$120k cash left to go” into the market?

I am buying in 10-20k a day that the markets drop.

I'll hold off once I get to ±40k and put that in once it appears that the market has bottomed out. That way if I miss the bottom and buy in on a higher place with that 40k I won't be hurt.


I'm still putting 70k in this year through payroll deductions on a biweekly payments. I still think there is a good 5-15% left to drop possibly.


If all goes as good as I hope I may leave 2020 with what I started with.
"Yep
I am buying in 10-20k a day that the markets drop
I'm still putting 70k in this year through payroll deductions on a biweekly payments. I still think there is a good 5-15% left to drop possibly."

I have no clue if you are wrong or right on this - but I certainly hope you are and are rooting for you.
I must say I am extremely impressed that you continue to post your moves ahead of time. Really stand up no matter what happens with all of us in the future. Bravo Zulu !!!
keelerjr12
Posts: 128
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:56 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by keelerjr12 »

hoops777 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
ks289 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 am Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
This all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.
+1. Seems to me that many people are upset because they missed 1 of the 3-4 market downturns (from an over-valued market) in their lives and failed to use any logic to make a decision to position themselves accordingly. The eyes are useless when the mind is blind.
Jaxfann
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:22 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Jaxfann »

keelerjr12 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
ks289 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 am Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
This all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.
+1. Seems to me that many people are upset because they missed 1 of the 3-4 market downturns (from an over-valued market) in their lives and failed to use any logic to make a decision to position themselves accordingly. The eyes are useless when the mind is blind.
I have been following this thread with interest, in that my moves have been similar to C&C's throughout. My circumstances are different though as I am in my late 70's and was invested pretty conservatively - 33/77.

I am non market timer by heart - " set your allocation to what you can tolerate risk wise and hold" - 99.9% of the time"

However on Fri 3/6/20 I had a strong feeling that this time WAS DIFFERENT - and it was/is!

Economic situations causing downturns with banks, Brexit, tariff's, economic bubbles etc etc - we have had before and we know how to handle them but world wide pandemics with (don't me get deleted) our current situation had me worried to such an extent that I withdrew 75% of my investments into cash.

Unfortunately, as I felt guilty (being an invest and hold guy) I put half of my withdrawal back in shortly thereafter on a "dead cat bounce" - took it out etc etc - however I am now sitting on a loss that is 40% of what I would have had if I just stayed in.

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.
l1am
Posts: 400
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by l1am »

Jaxfann wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm Unfortunately, as I felt guilty (being an invest and hold guy) I put half of my withdrawal back in shortly thereafter on a "dead cat bounce" - took it out etc etc - however I am now sitting on a loss that is 40% of what I would have had if I just stayed in.

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.
You've already won, personally I'd just buy back in unless you still think you know more than the market.
Jaxfann
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:22 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Jaxfann »

Good advice I think!
Topic Author
CnC
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

Jaxfann wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.

I really think NOW is a perfect time for DCA. I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. But I can not guaranteed when they bottom out or when we will have a false 20% rally on some good news that ends up not moving the needle.

Put 0.1-0.05 of your money in every day the market is red more than 1%. That should last around a month to two months of time.

~~~Here is my prediction, my crystal ball gazing for what it's worth.~~~

I think the market has 10-20 measurable drops left 2% or greater. Those 10-20 drops may account for a total net drop of 5% of 10% or of 30%. It all depends on how much we bounce back between each drop. I think an sp500 of 2000 is the psychological floor that we will not pass.

We seem to be racing to find the bottom. I personally think the stock market will drop more than is necessary for the impact of this and will rebound pretty hard before meaningful recovery actually starts.
keelerjr12
Posts: 128
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:56 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by keelerjr12 »

l1am wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:20 pm
Jaxfann wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm Unfortunately, as I felt guilty (being an invest and hold guy) I put half of my withdrawal back in shortly thereafter on a "dead cat bounce" - took it out etc etc - however I am now sitting on a loss that is 40% of what I would have had if I just stayed in.

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.
You've already won, personally I'd just buy back in unless you still think you know more than the market.
L1am,

I'm curious, is this decision based on some emotion? Is this statement in support of the efficient market hypothesis?
ValuationsMatter
Posts: 348
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:12 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

I think this situation is too unprecedented to say with any idea. I've made 3 DCA investments, and now sit at 50/50.

Now that I have enough skin in the game to benefit from any substantial recovery, I think it's best to wait with the rest and watch it play out for several weeks at a minimum. Neither ours nor Italy's trajectories has followed China's. Initial estimate, based on their 10-14 day period between the exponentially increasing inflection point for new cases and the leveling inflection point has not come to fruition. In the best case, I believe the scare will be over and lead to a recovery by the end of April. However, it's most likely we won't be getting back to work until the end of May, at which point I believe we will reach the break even point between the biological danger from the virus and the cost of lives/health due to collapse of the economy. At that point, I believe America will have both public and political support to move on, despite the danger.

However, there is no indication, at this point, that the worst is over in any western country, and we are at least 10 days behind Italy. We have the greatest number of new cases in the world now, and we're still only in the first half of the exponential curve.

I will not take any action, regardless of bad or good news, until the beginning of April, at which point I'll reassess and likely force myself to wait.
jjface
Posts: 3096
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:18 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

delete
Last edited by jjface on Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
valleyrock
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by valleyrock »

hoops777 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
ks289 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 am Here’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.

Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
This all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.
I'd add that, in addition to a huge problem brewing in China, and without getting political, it was apparent to that any actual crisis here in the US would very likely not be managed well. Add to that issue of all time highs, and one might guess accurately that winter was coming.

Be that as it may, it seems useful to focus on whether and/or how the two basic groups here might should be consider modifying their asset allocations and/or expectations: those who are retired or are soon to retire, and those who are still accumulating.

As I posted elsewhere, on BH Jonathan Clements' website, one of them (I think Clements) is planning for a possible downside of a 70% drop in the TSM. To each their own, of course.

Tied to this is the question of how our market timer is going to get back in. Based on the clock, as I recall. But what will be happening in terms of the coming stimuli, by the Fed and by Congress? Will the stimuli simply lift the TSM? Effect on TBM? Surely there are some ways to predict where our timer, and those resetting AAs, might should head in response to these stimuli.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

jjface wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:05 pm The problem with this thread (though interesting to follow!) is that sure the market timers did well this time.
Most timing strategies come out smelling like a rose in bear markets. Similar, most timing strategies lag buy-and-hold in the bull markets. Investors have to pick their poison: virtually guaranteed deep drawdowns of their stocks during the bear markets or virtually guaranteed lagging of the market during the bull markets. Neither is easy to stick with, and both care very real risks. That's why Paul Merriman and Meb Faber go 50/50 between the two. Even Larry Swedroe before all of this suggested that an allocation to trend following would be likely to improve risk-adjusted returns.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
l1am
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by l1am »

keelerjr12 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:40 am
l1am wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:20 pm
Jaxfann wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm Unfortunately, as I felt guilty (being an invest and hold guy) I put half of my withdrawal back in shortly thereafter on a "dead cat bounce" - took it out etc etc - however I am now sitting on a loss that is 40% of what I would have had if I just stayed in.

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.
You've already won, personally I'd just buy back in unless you still think you know more than the market.
L1am,

I'm curious, is this decision based on some emotion? Is this statement in support of the efficient market hypothesis?
No, it's in support of my ignorance about what the market will do next.
Jaxfann
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Jaxfann »

CnC wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 am
Jaxfann wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm

Now - what to do?

THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side!

C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know.

I really think NOW is a perfect time for DCA. I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. But I can not guaranteed when they bottom out or when we will have a false 20% rally on some good news that ends up not moving the needle.

Put 0.1-0.05 of your money in every day the market is red more than 1%. That should last around a month to two months of time.

~~~Here is my prediction, my crystal ball gazing for what it's worth.~~~

I think the market has 10-20 measurable drops left 2% or greater. Those 10-20 drops may account for a total net drop of 5% of 10% or of 30%. It all depends on how much we bounce back between each drop. I think an sp500 of 2000 is the psychological floor that we will not pass.

We seem to be racing to find the bottom. I personally think the stock market will drop more than is necessary for the impact of this and will rebound pretty hard before meaningful recovery actually starts.
Thanks CnC - appreciate your perspective - I will be DCA'ing in over the next couple of months with a heavier weight towards equities.
Jaxfann
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Jaxfann »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:55 am I think this situation is too unprecedented to say with any idea. I've made 3 DCA investments, and now sit at 50/50.

Now that I have enough skin in the game to benefit from any substantial recovery, I think it's best to wait with the rest and watch it play out for several weeks at a minimum. Neither ours nor Italy's trajectories has followed China's. Initial estimate, based on their 10-14 day period between the exponentially increasing inflection point for new cases and the leveling inflection point has not come to fruition. In the best case, I believe the scare will be over and lead to a recovery by the end of April. However, it's most likely we won't be getting back to work until the end of May, at which point I believe we will reach the break even point between the biological danger from the virus and the cost of lives/health due to collapse of the economy. At that point, I believe America will have both public and political support to move on, despite the danger.

However, there is no indication, at this point, that the worst is over in any western country, and we are at least 10 days behind Italy. We have the greatest number of new cases in the world now, and we're still only in the first half of the exponential curve.

I will not take any action, regardless of bad or good news, until the beginning of April, at which point I'll reassess and likely force myself to wait.
Thanks for your perspective.
siriusblack
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by siriusblack »

chuckb84 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:03 am I have market timed only twice, and both times they were very good calls. I got 100% into bonds (G Fund, TSP) just before the dot com bubble burst, and just before the housing crash. I avoided huge drawdowns and made good money in bonds at those times. However....

I was WAY too slow getting back in. Markets started up, but every little blip down during the climb out made me wait. I missed out on a lot of gains.

I still came out ahead, but by much less than you would expect looking at the size of those two crashes.

So, congrats on getting out. Now, do the hard part. Decide when to get back in.
I did similar -- in 2001 and 2008 -- both times, too slow getting back in, and in hindsight I would have been better off if I had just had a more appropriate AA from the beginning and stuck with it. I'm not making that mistake this time!!
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