Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Forester
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Forester »

Discretionary global macro is a legitimate strategy. Who is to say that a retail investor will underperform an 'expert' at this?
smitcat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
It was intended as a very general statement and just about always true - certainly not aimed at anyone in particular.
If you would like to post when you are buying back in now all the power to you....unless you have already.
yoyo6713
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by yoyo6713 »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
The silent voters? :D
Steven in NC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Steven in NC »

Hi OP - best of luck. I hope it works out for you and I mean that with full sincerity. I successfully did this in 2008 but I am sitting this one out. Over the years, the only thing I could consistently do is make the wrong decision. Being right once is hard, being right twice very difficult, being right every time - impossible. This is what helped me search out and find the lazy three fund portfolio. I am probably a bit lite on bonds but otherwise content with my allocation. The only move I have made is to turn back on reinvest dividends as I had been enjoying a little extra income on my taxable accounts. My next move will be to add in some additional money to buy more.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:05 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Because they knew that they would get the same warm response that you did. 8-)
Yea some company is nice, stay safe out there. Good luck to everyone with all the shutdowns.

Bought 10k on Friday.
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
LawProf
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by LawProf »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
LawProf
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by LawProf »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I agree. I went to a cash a month ago and got blasted for it on the board. But the advice is not brainless. It has a lot of behavioral wisdom behind It to make sure that people stay in the market consistently over the long run. Still, in life one should always be wary of absolutes. Two Bogleheads absolutes that bother me are:

(a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).
ks289
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ks289 »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
The obvious problem with your approach is that the future cannot be reliably predicted. So even if you knew about the crash you won’t know when exactly the recovery will begin. Will there be an effective cure, vaccine, flattening of the curve through government interventions, or mitigation of the economic damage through stimulus? If you time your avoidance of the crash perfectly but pay capital gains taxes and miss dividends, additional shares at the depressed prices, and the first 10-15% of the rebound will you come out much ahead?

What does your objective information source say about this time point now?
Last edited by ks289 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
long_gamma
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by long_gamma »

It may be dancing on the grave.

Bogleheads who are saying it worked this one time or he gambled and won were happy to point out to hall of fame thread here, which is markettimer' thread. Any win of timing is gambling, but loss is systematic in their opinion.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

ks289 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:06 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
The obvious problem with your approach is that the future cannot be reliably predicted. So even if you knew about the crash you won’t know when exactly the recovery will begin. Will there be an effective cure, vaccine, flattening of the curve through government interventions, or mitigation of the economic damage through stimulus? If you time your avoidance of the crash perfectly but pay capital gains taxes and miss dividends, additional shares at the depressed prices, and the first 10-15% of the rebound will you come out much ahead?

What does your objective information source say about this time point now?
I agree, but If I knew about the crash buying anywhere after it would be a net gain.

Taxes are an issue, but not for everybody. There are ways to mitigate those.
What does your objective information source say about this time point now?
I don't know. I was 100% sure in February, I'm not 100% sure anymore, so I will be buying dip over next months with DCA strategy and cash reserves. I don't know what will happen. It most likely get worse, but that might only be 70% chance not 100%, so I'm not going to sell anything now, too late for that. Fed can inject trillions in stock market and pump it up, current cures could be widely distributed to lessen impact, people still can work from homes (what better they have to do anyway). I knew in January/February, I don't know anymore, thus I have no knowledge to time anything.
Bogleheads who are saying it worked this one time or he gambled and won were happy to point out to hall of fame thread here, which is markettimer' thread. Any win of timing is gambling, but loss is systematic in their opinion.
It was not a gamble.

- You had data of military grade lockdowns in China (did not happen in Ebola, swine flu, sars, etc...)
- You had data of flights existing
- You had data of tourism existing
- You had data of overseas people catching virus
- You had exponential growth metrics from China

It was literally putting 2 and 2 together.
Redlion
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Redlion »

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly
long_gamma
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by long_gamma »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:11 am

It was not a gamble.
I agree it was not a gamble. But you can go thru' this thread or Hdas's thread, there are plenty of complaining about gamble. Any decisions or trades are based on some informed logic, putting on odd's in your favor. So much venom is spewed to drive away any posters whose doesn't fit their dogma. Case in point Larry Swedroe, Hdas and some were outright banned like adrian nenu or sscritic
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.
smitcat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.
"I knew 100% what will happen."
If you knew 100% that this would happen then I hope you positioned your finances accordingly ahead of time.
If you happen to know what will happen in the near future at or near 100% with the virus would you kindly share that?
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:58 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
It was intended as a very general statement and just about always true - certainly not aimed at anyone in particular.
If you would like to post when you are buying back in now all the power to you....unless you have already.
I've decided to not share the specifics of my own investment strategy/moves going forward. I got tired of being lampooned (not saying you were one of those engaging in it).

At this point, I'll just say that I'm down for the year but well ahead of buy-and-hold.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am (a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).
The second of those in particular really sticks in my craw.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
ks289
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ks289 »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.
I hate to quibble, but if you were 100% certain about the crash it is illogical that you didn’t act upon it. I’m sure that’s because really it must have been more like 97% certainty. Just making up numbers really.
The other issue with acting upon these predictions, is that if you happen to be right, I do believe it reinforces your confidence in your ability to predict future events and market actions. In the future you may be acting on your predictions on a regular basis, which is extremely difficult to get right over the long term.
I saw a similar thing in 2008-9. People who bailed out were extremely vocal, but many also failed to identify the rebound and continued to express doubt about the recovery even years later. Sometimes you really drive yourself nuts playing this game.
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:50 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.
"I knew 100% what will happen."
If you knew 100% that this would happen then I hope you positioned your finances accordingly ahead of time.
If you happen to know what will happen in the near future at or near 100% with the virus would you kindly share that?
I would have positioned my finances if I hadn't ingrained the illogical Boglehead dogma that 100% of the time it is best to "do nothing".

Obviously there are exceptions 0.01% of the time and this happened to be that 0.01%.

Right now I will tell you that US will suffer Italy's fate or worse with 90% accuracy.

But market knows that already and might have partially priced that in.

I am not sure 100% anymore like I was in February thus I'm not making any plays anymore, I missed that boat.
I hate to quibble, but if you were 100% certain about the crash it is illogical that you didn’t act upon it.
Of course it is illogical. The only reason I did it because Mr. Bogle and this forum told me market timing doesn't work. It would have been logical for me to liquidate positions once I realised how dramatic the impact will be.
I’m sure that’s because really it must have been more like 97% certainty.
For me to have 3% certainty of it not coming true there should have been something stopping the virus.

We know there are no anti viral. We know how it spreads. We know it infected other countries.

What is this 3% that would magically stop it? I can't think of anything, thus I was 100% sure.
The other issue with acting upon these predictions, is that if you happen to be right, I do believe it reinforces your confidence in your ability to predict future events and market actions. In the future you may be acting on your predictions on a regular basis, which is extremely difficult to get right over the long term.
This was the only time in my life when I had researched something and had 100% confidence in ti, so this was unprecedented. I also know how rare such moment are and how lucky I was to come across this information and thus would have not risked again. So let's just not dance around the issue here. Only reason this happened, because I was told I'm basically clueless by boglehead forum and should 100% of the time never try to time anything, because it is impossible.
Last edited by Vision on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
smitcat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:57 am
smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:50 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.
"I knew 100% what will happen."
If you knew 100% that this would happen then I hope you positioned your finances accordingly ahead of time.
If you happen to know what will happen in the near future at or near 100% with the virus would you kindly share that?
I would have positioned my finances if I hadn't ingrained the illogical Boglehead dogma that 100% of the time it is best to "do nothing".

Obviously there are exceptions 0.01% of the time and this happened to be that 0.01%.

Right now I will tell you that US will suffer Italy's fate or worse with 90% accuracy.

But market knows that already and might have partially priced that in.

I am not sure 100% anymore like I was in February thus I'm not making any plays anymore, I missed that boat.
"I would have positioned my finances if I hadn't ingrained the illogical Boglehead dogma that 100% of the time it is best to "do nothing"
There have been literally 100's of posts on this site that recommend to take action if you are at or near 100% sure.
They also say not to take action unless you are at or near 100% sure.

"I am not sure 100% anymore like I was in February thus I'm not making any plays anymore, I missed that boat."
Thank you for your response - IMHO that makes you very similar to everyone else that is watching this play out.
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

"I would have positioned my finances if I hadn't ingrained the illogical Boglehead dogma that 100% of the time it is best to "do nothing"
There have been literally 100's of posts on this site that recommend to take action if you are at or near 100% sure.
They also say not to take action unless you are at or near 100% sure.
Ok, in that case it was critical mistake on my part that cost me like 35% of my wealth. Insane.
sd323232
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by sd323232 »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
very nicely put. i also think samething. i just remember craziness of january and february when stocks were hitting new highs every day and china was getting slammed with coronavirus, and everyone was saying how this virus is nothing, just simple flu and how stocks can will never fall. the OP has ability to think outside the box, not follow mindlessly the crowd.
smitcat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:52 am
smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:58 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
It was intended as a very general statement and just about always true - certainly not aimed at anyone in particular.
If you would like to post when you are buying back in now all the power to you....unless you have already.
I've decided to not share the specifics of my own investment strategy/moves going forward. I got tired of being lampooned (not saying you were one of those engaging in it).

At this point, I'll just say that I'm down for the year but well ahead of buy-and-hold.
I do not remember doing any lampooning either but I'm not really sure what that means.
Certainly you or anyone else should not necessarily post what they will be doing in the future....its just something CnC initiated with this post.
With all that said my original post still stands....
"Whenever severe moves like these are over there are numerous folks who describe how they sold at the top and then reentered at the absolute bottom.
Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing. FWIW- If I was able to time a few moves like these I would not be spending any time on any forum nor would I be posting about it.
Good luck and great move."
Candor
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Candor »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.


Personally, I see Boglehead investing as a guide but then again I can also think for myself. If you were 100% certain of the outcome (in hindsight) then you have no one to blame but yourself. It seems that you are trying to blame Boglehead "dogma" for your own failings.
Last edited by Candor on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

Candor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.


Personally, I see Boglehead investing as guide but then again I can also think for myself. If you were 100% certain of the outcome (in hindsight) then you have no one to blame but yourself. It seems that you are trying to blame Boglehead "dogma" for your own failings.
Funny thing, Bogleheads were also greatly skeptical of my bitcoin play in 2013, even locked my thread here... turned out to be best choice of my life.
If you were 100% certain of the outcome (in hindsight) then you have no one to blame but yourself. It seems that you are trying to blame Boglehead "dogma" for your own failings.
I guess you are right. I shouldn't have been as autistic and dogmatic in following whatever John Bogle said. After all, boglehead advice is aimed at 99.99% of average investors not 100%.

I'm really happy I didn't buy into the "lump sum" meme and didn't put in all of my cash at one point, some sanity was left in my brain to keep some cash reserves for inevitable recession that will follow so I can buy lower.
Last edited by Vision on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
Candor
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Candor »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 am
Candor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly

Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January and once it hit Italy it was super clear.

People knew. We didn't act because of dogmatic religious thinking. Yes, 99.9% people didn't know. 0.1% knew. This 0.1% were stupid to follow Boglehead dogma in this particular case. The dogma applies for 99.9%. I'm not talking about hunches, I'm talking about clear logic. I knew 100% what will happen. 100% , yes, 100%. Not 99, not 95%, 100%. I understand statistics and that exponential growth and gov reaction in China said everything.

It was clear and can't be compared to SARS / Ebola, because lack of country wide shutdown measures. Also, I was a kid in 2003, so not sure how I would have reacted then, but I don't recall. whole country being shut down.


Personally, I see Boglehead investing as guide but then again I can also think for myself. If you were 100% certain of the outcome (in hindsight) then you have no one to blame but yourself. It seems that you are trying to blame Boglehead "dogma" for your own failings.
Funny thing, Bogleheads were also greatly skeptical of my bitcoin play in 2013, even locked my thread here... turned out to be best choice of my life.
Then that should have served as a good precursor for you to not listen to the "dogma" a 100% of the time.
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly
I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell.

If you didn't think this was going to really bad you had your fingers stuffed in your ears.
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Flymore
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Flymore »

Good Luck!

Unfortunately I know way too many who following 2008 never got back in the market. :shock: Like many have said, that is the hard part. In 2016 they walked around the office like zombies many older than me. Calling out to anyone who'd listen I can never retire... of course that could be for lots of reasons but they'd tell you if you listened they were afraid to get back into the market and were not currently in.

Anyway... Good Luck
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by columbia »

LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.

Perhaps think of it in a different way:

Was it knowable that there was a unique a risk on the table?

The seems and was obvious: yes.
How someone chose to react (or not) was/is a different matter.
moneyman11
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by moneyman11 »

CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly
I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell.

If you didn't think this was going to really bad you had your fingers stuffed in your ears.
Congrats on the move. I'd check the self-congratulatory chiding though.
Skill is indistinguishable from luck in these moves, and the hard part for you is yet to come: figuring out when/if to reverse what you've done.
Nowizard
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Nowizard »

Since the OP described his choice as market timing, then the usual caveats apply. However, if one recognizes that their perception of risk when originally establishing their allocations was incorrect or has changed, then it is not market timing in my opinion since MT assumes two decisions and moves rather than either an increase or decrease to equities with the view to stay the course following changes. That is rebalancing which can occur either by returning ratios to a present percentage or changing ratios based on a change in circumstances such as winning the game, a windfall, or even recognition that risk tolerance has changed. Ideally, we make decisions we can live with on the front end, but that is not always going to occur. Just as market timing is generally unwise, so is not responding to changing circumstances.

Tim
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

moneyman11 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:29 am
CnC wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 am
Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly
I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell.

If you didn't think this was going to really bad you had your fingers stuffed in your ears.
Congrats on the move. I'd check the self-congratulatory chiding though.
Skill is indistinguishable from luck in these moves, and the hard part for you is yet to come: figuring out when/if to reverse what you've done.
Right now even if I buy back in at previous highs I'll be a good amount of money ahead.

I am not trying to chide anything, sorry if I came out that way. I need to check myself I was more meaning that no one could argue that there was any reason for the market to continue going up in February.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by TheoLeo »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html

To add to it: the funds of Renaissance Technologies, the second largest hedgefund management in the world, are also way down. If the outcome would have been obvious, all these funds should be 1000 % up.

https://www.ft.com/content/1afde374-67e ... 70cff6e4d3
Last edited by TheoLeo on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Vision
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vision »

TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html
Because those geniuses weren't siting on 3 Corona related subreddits for 12 hours each day for months like no-lifers such as me. Honestly, It is strange they didn't catch it. At one point in February it became really, really clear what is going to happen.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html
I think that your assumption that they had 1,500 geniuses may not be entirely accurate.

Others have noted that market declines historically have come from financial related issues, which was the case for the last two major recessions experienced in the U.S. (e.g. overvalued stocks, financial crisis). Consequently, these are what analysts have historically focused upon. We've not had a pandemic on the current scale for over 100 years, so this likely wasn't even on the radar of most professionals.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
TheoLeo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by TheoLeo »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:03 pm We've not had a pandemic on the current scale for over 100 years, so this likely wasn't even on the radar of most professionals.
I´d say it is unlikely that it wasn´t on their radar. Just as an example, the chief security officer at Bridgewater is Richard Falkenrath. According to Wikipedia, he worked for the white house from 2001 to 2004 as "the Director for Proliferation Strategy on the National Security Council staff, where he was responsible for biological weapons proliferation and preparedness, missile defense, and Asian proliferation issues". I´d say, he would at least know who to ask to get a better idea of whats coming from a biological threat than we do.

Here is an interview from Bridgewater Associates with two of their experts discussing the risk of Covid-19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0r2X0FmZtg&t=1s
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:00 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html
Because those geniuses weren't siting on 3 Corona related subreddits for 12 hours each day for months like no-lifers such as me. Honestly, It is strange they didn't catch it. At one point in February it became really, really clear what is going to happen.
Even if they contained it to China, it was obviously going to have a negative impact on the market and the economy. But by mid February I was sure that containing it was no longer possible. I moved from 65:35 to 50:50 on 12-Feb and felt like a failure for doing it. My logical side was telling me to get out completely, but my heart/emotions were telling me not to do anything. So 50:50 was a compromise that I figured couldn't be too much of a mistake if I was wrong. (I've since moved back to 60:40 at ~ Dow 24,000 - which looks like another mistake. But I plan to increase my equity position if the market continues to fall, maybe all the way to 100% if it falls enough.)

I don't blame the boglehead philosophy though for my failure to get out. I think buy and hold is correct the vast majority of the time. (Even though personally I tend to shift my equity positions around, especially by buying into falling markets.)
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:03 pm We've not had a pandemic on the current scale for over 100 years, so this likely wasn't even on the radar of most professionals.
I´d say it is unlikely that it wasn´t on their radar. Just as an example, the chief security officer at Bridgewater is Richard Falkenrath. According to Wikipedia, he worked for the white house from 2001 to 2004 as "the Director for Proliferation Strategy on the National Security Council staff, where he was responsible for biological weapons proliferation and preparedness, missile defense, and Asian proliferation issues". I´d say, he would at least know who to ask to get a better idea of whats coming from a biological threat than we do.

Here is an interview from Bridgewater Associates with two of their experts discussing the risk of Covid-19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0r2X0FmZtg&t=1s
Then why did the virus catch them by surprise? Did they actually think that China and the rest of the world would be able to completely contain a highly infectious virus?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:55 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am (a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).
The second of those in particular really sticks in my craw.
I agree. The boglehead way was not handed down from the mountain on a stone tablet, though It is an excellent general investment philosophy. Just ask the people in Congress now being raked over the coals for selling stocks after getting the real info on the coronavirus a few weeks ago.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:47 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:55 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am (a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).
The second of those in particular really sticks in my craw.
I agree. The boglehead way was not handed down from the mountain on a stone tablet, though It is an excellent general investment philosophy. Just ask the people in Congress now being raked over the coals for selling stocks after getting the real info on the coronavirus a few weeks ago.

Funny thing about that is the info they traded on was basically public information readily available in January and early February for anyone that was curious and willing to spend the time reading about it. So I don't think they can get nailed for insider trading.
TheoLeo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by TheoLeo »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:28 pm Then why did the virus catch them by surprise? Did they actually think that China and the rest of the world would be able to completely contain a highly infectious virus?
Hard to tell. But judging from the interview I linked above, published 4th of March, thats what they were/are anticipating:
- a dynamic similar to the SARS outbreak with a swift downturn and a stronger rebound, just on a bigger scale.
- an overreaction of the market in the short term and an underreaction in the long term

Also judging from the interview, these seem to be the points that make it hard to capitalize from this knowledge:
- getting the timing right
- knowing what the market has already priced in*

They struggle with the same issues every "brainless" Boglehead struggles with.

*what was it that had to be priced in? The economic impact of a novel virus that has been shown to be containable by the second week of February (curve in China flattened) but with unknown future reactions by 194 different governments in the world to this virus.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
Don't confuse smart with following a hunch and getting lucky.

The "brainless dogma" will protect the 90% of people who follow hunches and are not lucky. Those who think that they know more than the market when the market has already acted (see the many new threads on getting out now after we've already dropped 35%). Yes it may also prevent some lucky people from scoring extra wealth but the risk is there that you end up failing miserably in your timing endeavor.

In hindsight right moves always look smart.

I mean with all this volatility shouldn't we all be day trading right?? No thank you.
hoops777
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:57 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:47 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:55 am
LawProf wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am (a) Stay the course, no matter what.

(b) It is never a bad time to buy stocks (i.e. price doesn't matter).
The second of those in particular really sticks in my craw.
I agree. The boglehead way was not handed down from the mountain on a stone tablet, though It is an excellent general investment philosophy. Just ask the people in Congress now being raked over the coals for selling stocks after getting the real info on the coronavirus a few weeks ago.

Funny thing about that is the info they traded on was basically public information readily available in January and early February for anyone that was curious and willing to spend the time reading about it. So I don't think they can get nailed for insider trading.
I am not sure it is quite that simple. There is more to the story including what one of the prominent members was saying privately vs publicly. That however is not up for discussion on this forum.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:26 pm
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
Don't confuse smart with following a hunch and getting lucky.

The "brainless dogma" will protect the 90% of people who follow hunches and are not lucky. Those who think that they know more than the market when the market has already acted (see the many new threads on getting out now after we've already dropped 35%). Yes it may also prevent some lucky people from scoring extra wealth but the risk is there that you end up failing miserably in your timing endeavor.

In hindsight right moves always look smart.

I mean with all this volatility shouldn't we all be day trading right?? No thank you.
Recognizing that China was shut down and how important Chinese manufacturing is to the US economy was not "a hunch".
jjface
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:41 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:26 pm
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
Don't confuse smart with following a hunch and getting lucky.

The "brainless dogma" will protect the 90% of people who follow hunches and are not lucky. Those who think that they know more than the market when the market has already acted (see the many new threads on getting out now after we've already dropped 35%). Yes it may also prevent some lucky people from scoring extra wealth but the risk is there that you end up failing miserably in your timing endeavor.

In hindsight right moves always look smart.

I mean with all this volatility shouldn't we all be day trading right?? No thank you.
Recognizing that China was shut down and how important Chinese manufacturing is to the US economy was not "a hunch".
No but I don't think anyone could have accurately predicted how rapidly it has spread around the world nor how governements would have reacted. Nor how fast the markets would drop. Nor predicted how long this would last, that businesses and schools would be temporaily shutting down across the world. That disneyworld is closed lol. The markets starting falling when the US started getting cases. If we could have contained it then and acted faster things could have been different. Sars and the rest didn't cause anywhere near this kind of global meltdown.

There are many things I think I clearly see coming and half the time or more I am wrong. But when I am right I am super smart!
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by jjface »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:28 pm
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:00 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html
Because those geniuses weren't siting on 3 Corona related subreddits for 12 hours each day for months like no-lifers such as me. Honestly, It is strange they didn't catch it. At one point in February it became really, really clear what is going to happen.
Even if they contained it to China, it was obviously going to have a negative impact on the market and the economy. But by mid February I was sure that containing it was no longer possible. I moved from 65:35 to 50:50 on 12-Feb and felt like a failure for doing it. My logical side was telling me to get out completely, but my heart/emotions were telling me not to do anything. So 50:50 was a compromise that I figured couldn't be too much of a mistake if I was wrong. (I've since moved back to 60:40 at ~ Dow 24,000 - which looks like another mistake. But I plan to increase my equity position if the market continues to fall, maybe all the way to 100% if it falls enough.)

I don't blame the boglehead philosophy though for my failure to get out. I think buy and hold is correct the vast majority of the time. (Even though personally I tend to shift my equity positions around, especially by buying into falling markets.)
Your own example shows why the bogleheads "philosophy" exists. Market timing is risky. It is not a sure thing. Yes it can pay off too. You didn't really know when to get out and by how much and gambled and failed and you didn't time getting back in right either failing twice. In hindsight you felt you should have done differently. That is what all market timers feel at one point or another.

Thing is you can't really say buy and hold is right most of the time. Either you believe you can market time or not. The fact you don't think market timing works most of the time should be telling you not to do it.

I am not a strict buy and hold investor. But I am not the kind who plays big with market timing. I will increase equity allocation when markets fall as I can be patient through any further drops knowing when it rebounds I would have picked up cheap stocks. It is more of a sure thing. But knowing when to withdraw before big crashes is a game I will not play. The odds are stacked against me. Plenty of people like to play the game but that is nothing more than gambling.
ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 541
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:23 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:28 pm
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:00 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 am
Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong It was a mistake where I had objective 100% information and did an illogical thing - not act on this information due to dogma. Boglehead tactic applies for majority of normal people, like 99.9%, but there are these rare 0.1% cases where it doesn't apply. This was that case.
I think you give your instincts too much credit. If this really was one of these 1 in a 1000 cases, where the outcome was obvious, then how did the 1500 geniuses working at Bridgewater Associates not anticipate this outcome?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/even-br ... l-off.html
Because those geniuses weren't siting on 3 Corona related subreddits for 12 hours each day for months like no-lifers such as me. Honestly, It is strange they didn't catch it. At one point in February it became really, really clear what is going to happen.
Even if they contained it to China, it was obviously going to have a negative impact on the market and the economy. But by mid February I was sure that containing it was no longer possible. I moved from 65:35 to 50:50 on 12-Feb and felt like a failure for doing it. My logical side was telling me to get out completely, but my heart/emotions were telling me not to do anything. So 50:50 was a compromise that I figured couldn't be too much of a mistake if I was wrong. (I've since moved back to 60:40 at ~ Dow 24,000 - which looks like another mistake. But I plan to increase my equity position if the market continues to fall, maybe all the way to 100% if it falls enough.)

I don't blame the boglehead philosophy though for my failure to get out. I think buy and hold is correct the vast majority of the time. (Even though personally I tend to shift my equity positions around, especially by buying into falling markets.)
Your own example shows why the bogleheads "philosophy" exists. Market timing is risky. It is not a sure thing. Yes it can pay off too. You didn't really know when to get out and by how much and gambled and failed and you didn't time getting back in right either failing twice. In hindsight you felt you should have done differently. That is what all market timers feel at one point or another.
Despite wishing now that I had followed my logic instead of my heart, and despite partially buying back in sooner than optimal, I am still better off than I would have been had I just ridden it out. And I got out at the perfect time, but I admit that was just luck. It just so happened that the top of the market almost perfectly coincided with when I decided that the China situation would impact the market, even if it took a month or two. But I knew it could continue up for a while, since it had been reaching new highs just about every day despite the China situation.
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willthrill81
Posts: 22550
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:23 pmMarket timing is risky. It is not a sure thing.
All roads carry risk.

Buy-and-hold didn't work for those investing in Russian or Chinese markets in the first half of the 20th century. It hasn't work for Japanese investors in 30+ years. That doesn't mean that it's a bad strategy; I believe that it's an excellent one. But it's not the only reasonable path, and it's not inherently safer than all others.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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