Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
veggivet
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by veggivet »

We've all seen wide swings before, but I believe the speed of the current moves is unprecedented.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
an_asker
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by an_asker »

CnC wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:14 pm Guys please don't argue and fight about American exceptionalism or ignorance. That is not the point of the thread.

Stick to economics and the market. If you want to talk about coronavirus get on Reddit.
r/coronavirus or r/china_flu
Are you still waiting on blessings from Bogleheads? :oops:
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

an_asker wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:40 pm
CnC wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:14 pm Guys please don't argue and fight about American exceptionalism or ignorance. That is not the point of the thread.

Stick to economics and the market. If you want to talk about coronavirus get on Reddit.
r/coronavirus or r/china_flu
Are you still waiting on blessings from Bogleheads? :oops:
No, I just don't want it to get political and get locked.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

veggivet wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:06 pm We've all seen wide swings before, but I believe the speed of the current moves is unprecedented.
The sustained volatility of the last four weeks may well be the highest ever. There have been bigger one day swings, but a 3% day either way right now would seem downright calm.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
JimmyJammy
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by JimmyJammy »

One thing this thread has convinced me to do is read Bogleheads more often. I applaud the OP for thinking out loud. Back in early February, I just wanted taking enough time at the end of the day to sit down and think.
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1789
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by 1789 »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:40 pm
veggivet wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:06 pm We've all seen wide swings before, but I believe the speed of the current moves is unprecedented.
The sustained volatility of the last four weeks may well be the highest ever. There have been bigger one day swings, but a 3% day either way right now would seem downright calm.
Agreed. If SP500 moves less than 5% (up or down) it feels like noise
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
North Borders
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by North Borders »

Fiance and I have about 30k in bonds. Were in our 30's and adhere to a 90/10 portfolio. I nearly switched us to 100% stocks, but decided to wait as it felt like something was coming. I realize 30k isn't that much, but considering moving it all to stocks on the dip. Thinking of buying soon, but the allure of holding for an even bigger dip is enticing. Anyone else making a move now or waiting a bit longer?
rascott
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by rascott »

North Borders wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:41 am Fiance and I have about 30k in bonds. Were in our 30's and adhere to a 90/10 portfolio. I nearly switched us to 100% stocks, but decided to wait as it felt like something was coming. I realize 30k isn't that much, but considering moving it all to stocks on the dip. Thinking of buying soon, but the allure of holding for an even bigger dip is enticing. Anyone else making a move now or waiting a bit longer?
As long as you understand that we may be only halfway (or less) to the bottom.
North Borders
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by North Borders »

rascott wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 am
North Borders wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:41 am Fiance and I have about 30k in bonds. Were in our 30's and adhere to a 90/10 portfolio. I nearly switched us to 100% stocks, but decided to wait as it felt like something was coming. I realize 30k isn't that much, but considering moving it all to stocks on the dip. Thinking of buying soon, but the allure of holding for an even bigger dip is enticing. Anyone else making a move now or waiting a bit longer?
As long as you understand that we may be only halfway (or less) to the bottom.
Yeah, that's my worry :(. DOW < 10K?
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

North Borders wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:41 am Fiance and I have about 30k in bonds. Were in our 30's and adhere to a 90/10 portfolio. I nearly switched us to 100% stocks, but decided to wait as it felt like something was coming. I realize 30k isn't that much, but considering moving it all to stocks on the dip. Thinking of buying soon, but the allure of holding for an even bigger dip is enticing. Anyone else making a move now or waiting a bit longer?
Are you insulated with a 6mo + emergency fund? If not, I'd stay right where you are.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

Another day another
Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis

Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off.


Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Yeah, I can't help but notice the same pattern, but I'm too skeptical of it to put it to work. If I wasn't working full-time, I'd probably have some fun with sub-5% of my portfolio and try to time these by buying one day and shorting the next. Just seems like after a couple iterations, the big fish might step in for a squeeze.

Since I invest in indexes, I'll be pulling the trigger towards the end of today, and not the beginning. I had a SNAFU on Monday, and couldn't pull the trigger. I went from Prime Money Market to treasuries, and forgot that I couldn't cancel the trade after ~2:15pm. So, when I attempted to cancel and move a portion of that into stocks instead, I found out that I was stuck.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
Now, that's the first time I've seen you make a judgment call like that, but I concur. This is unlikely to play out by your original timeline of the end of this week. Mine is stretched out too, compared to what you were doing, but I might be all-in by early-mid April. Most important to me is that the money is back in before people en masse start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. The mechanics of the market are still very intact, and the FED buying back corporate paper is an awesome reprieve that should help things float along for a couple of months without a cascade of bankruptcies that could escalate into a financial sector crisis. They're really doing a good job, IMO.... all they can do. The point is, the economy is in place for a sharp rebound as everyone gets back to work, and when the market anticipates that, it will bounce fairly hard and will not come back down. I don't care if I catch the bottom. I care that I'm in before the bottom.

Of course, I'll leave myself some reasonable AA so that if I'm wrong about this and it turns out to be a GD or GFC level event, I'll still have some ammo.
learningLady
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by learningLady »

Is anybody buying today or waiting for one more week.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Barring a major rebound at the end of the day, my AA will move from 24% Stocks to ~50% at the close. As of today, I've lost 4.7% of my porfolio, not accounting for non-investment emergency & short term savings, in this correction, to date. I also paid an additional 1.3% in income taxes, due to selling off last year. Total loss to date, approx. 6%. Not really sure if I should count tax losses as I may or may not have been able to avoid them eventually if I were smarter on them.
Last edited by ValuationsMatter on Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:13 am
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
Now, that's the first time I've seen you make a judgment call like that, but I concur. This is unlikely to play out by your original timeline of the end of this week. Mine is stretched out too, compared to what you were doing, but I might be all-in by early-mid April. Most important to me is that the money is back in before people en masse start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. The mechanics of the market are still very intact, and the FED buying back corporate paper is an awesome reprieve that should help things float along for a couple of months without a cascade of bankruptcies that could escalate into a financial sector crisis. They're really doing a good job, IMO.... all they can do. The point is, the economy is in place for a sharp rebound as everyone gets back to work, and when the market anticipates that, it will bounce fairly hard and will not come back down. I don't care if I catch the bottom. I care that I'm in before the bottom.

Of course, I'll leave myself some reasonable AA so that if I'm wrong about this and it turns out to be a GD or GFC level event, I'll still have some ammo.
Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off.

We appear to be running a bit farther down the line but it's pretty bad now and the bodies haven't hit the floor yet.


But, with the fed and the us govt going full out to support the economy we may very well see a V shaped recession.

I put another 25k in today to make up for sitting out yesterday.

$120k cash left to go.
Keenobserver
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Keenobserver »

Im went today, will keep going with each drop
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Well F@#$!!! I waited until 3:50 to pull the trigger and move 26% cash in. At 3:51, newsflash! Senate is passing relief bill. Boom! Up 3.6% in 3 minutes. Ugh! Couldn't have waited 10 more minutes, congress?!

Oh well. I feel better now that I feel like I've caught the market from a high point to this point where stocks are WAY more fairly valued (CAPE 22.7 & Buffett 107% for future self-reference). Moreover, I have plenty of ammo to catch it if it continues to drop.
fishboat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by fishboat »

Very tempted to go in today, but this thing is still early yet. For all the promise of wide-scale testing (over the past week), it still hasn't ramped up appreciably. It's said that nothing changes until someone DOES something. So far we have lots of press conferences and more recently fiscal stimulus..but this addresses the economy..the stock market..meanwhile the health problem continues to ramp up and on that front..we get "We're doing lots of things with the stuff we have, and considering other stuff to do things with.." Yet, nothing drastically has changed. Presumably, we'll get rid of the virus by throwing money at it and talking it to death.

While my retirement is secure with other funds, I did take my pension in cash 16 months ago. It's sat in cash/CDs since then as the 11 year bull market had to correct at some point. I went in $125k last Thursday and $50k on Monday. Barring any miracle discovery of some (panic) re-purposed drug shutting down C-19, I think things will still get worse before they get better. I have $200k+ to go in yet..our numbers are starting to take off..we'll see what happens in the next week.

Meanwhile, Italy..so sad. Their numbers are still out of control with 4200+ new cases today and a mortality rate over 8%. Hard to fathom..

On a positive note..If you want to see what leadership looks like, checkout Andrew Cuomo's press conference for yesterday, March 17. I'm not from NY, but NY is lucky to have him on their side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4r6RrdA5J8&t=1911s
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

fishboat wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:16 pm Very tempted to go in today, but this thing is still early yet. For all the promise of wide-scale testing (over the past week), it still hasn't ramped up appreciably. It's said that nothing changes until someone DOES something. So far we have lots of press conferences and more recently fiscal stimulus..but this addresses the economy..the stock market..meanwhile the health problem continues to ramp up and on that front..we get "We're doing lots of things with the stuff we have, and considering other stuff to do things with.." Yet, nothing drastically has changed. Presumably, we'll get rid of the virus by throwing money at it and talking it to death.

While my retirement is secure with other funds, I did take my pension in cash 16 months ago. It's sat in cash/CDs since then as the 11 year bull market had to correct at some point. I went in $125k last Thursday and $50k on Monday. Barring any miracle discovery of some (panic) re-purposed drug shutting down C-19, I think things will still get worse before they get better. I have $200k+ to go in yet..our numbers are starting to take off..we'll see what happens in the next week.

Meanwhile, Italy..so sad. Their numbers are still out of control with 4200+ new cases today and a mortality rate over 8%. Hard to fathom..

On a positive note..If you want to see what leadership looks like, checkout Andrew Cuomo's press conference for yesterday, March 17. I'm not from NY, but NY is lucky to have him on their side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4r6RrdA5J8&t=1911s
Totally agree. Sounds like you're on the right track. Any strategy to your DCA-ing back in?
beth65
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by beth65 »

I know they say buy and hold, stay the course and it will recover, but how long will it take to recover? What if we hit another 1970's or go Japan for a while? We are already at ZIRP, NIRP is not that far away (maybe by late spring). Are these real valid concerns? I am not making any moves, but I'm just curious if there could ever be a downside to not being proactive at all. What got us here may not always get us there. I think in the very long-term, things will always recover, but is there a chance that it could be ugly for a lot longer than we think, or that we get stagflation coupled with an insurmountable amount of debt?
MoneyMarathon
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by MoneyMarathon »

beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:21 pm I know they say buy and hold, stay the course and it will recover, but how long will it take to recover? What if we hit another 1970's or go Japan for a while? We are already at ZIRP, NIRP is not that far away (maybe by late spring). Are these real valid concerns? I am not making any moves, but I'm just curious if there could ever be a downside to not being proactive at all. What got us here may not always get us there. I think in the very long-term, things will always recover, but is there a chance that it could be ugly for a lot longer than we think, or that we get stagflation coupled with an insurmountable amount of debt?
Retirement portfolios need inflation protection other than equities. Equities are too volatile and don't protect from inflation from year to year. I bonds, short term TIPS, or a TIPS ladder.

Savers get inflation linked assets in assets the form of equities and their own human capital. They need short term reserves (cash emergency funds) and possibly deflation protection (long term nominal bonds).
zvez
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by zvez »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am Another day another
Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis

Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off.


Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
I guess I don't entirely understand buying into a market that is clearly trending down, I get the whole market timing thing, but to continue to buy when you can buy the next day for several percent cheaper just doesn't make a lot of sense.

I went 75% in to cash a month ago and very glad that I did, I'm retired (early so no SSI yet) so not contributing anymore, even tho I had a couple years cash emergency fund I felt it was prudent. So I miss the first 10% of the upswing when it eventually happens, I'm ok with that.

As an aside I was an active investor during the dot com bubble as well as teh 2008 meltdown so I've seen bad markets before, this one is by far the worst I've personally been in on.
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

zvez wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am Another day another
Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis

Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off.


Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
I guess I don't entirely understand buying into a market that is clearly trending down, I get the whole market timing thing, but to continue to buy when you can buy the next day for several percent cheaper just doesn't make a lot of sense.

I went 75% in to cash a month ago and very glad that I did, I'm retired (early so no SSI yet) so not contributing anymore, even tho I had a couple years cash emergency fund I felt it was prudent. So I miss the first 10% of the upswing when it eventually happens, I'm ok with that.

As an aside I was an active investor during the dot com bubble as well as teh 2008 meltdown so I've seen bad markets before, this one is by far the worst I've personally been in on.

you buy into a market going down for the exact same reason why everyone else here isn't liquidating all their stocks today in hopes to buy in cheaper.

Eventually we will bottom out. I don't know when that is. but I certainly know that stocks are cheaper today than they were two weeks ago and a month ago.

If we luck out and happen to have the v-shaped recovery you could end up holding increasingly useless cash.

Do you honestly know what the difference between a 10% false rally and a 10% sustainable rally will be? If you went 75% into Cash a month ago you are either extremely lucky or had a lot of foresight did you share your prediction on here?
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:21 pm I know they say buy and hold, stay the course and it will recover, but how long will it take to recover? What if we hit another 1970's or go Japan for a while? We are already at ZIRP, NIRP is not that far away (maybe by late spring). Are these real valid concerns? I am not making any moves, but I'm just curious if there could ever be a downside to not being proactive at all. What got us here may not always get us there. I think in the very long-term, things will always recover, but is there a chance that it could be ugly for a lot longer than we think, or that we get stagflation coupled with an insurmountable amount of debt?
It's literally the job of American businesses to produce, provide service, and make money. As long as we keep our money there, it will be hard to beat them. You cannot do utterly anything without running some type of risk. Risk of underperformance, risk of inflation, risk of deflation, risk, risk, risk...

Your two reasonable alternatives, as far as I can tell, are: time the market by shifting asset classes from cash to treasuries to bonds to stocks to commodities to real estate to entrepreneurship/individual business.... or pick an asset allocation with a broadly diverse strategy for your life, rebalance and move on. Despite my recent movements in 2018 & 2020, before 2018 I spent 11 years doing the passive approach, literally not changing my AA once and just piling the money in as fast as I could. It took extremes, in my view, to compel me to finally act against the passive approach.

Your concerns are valid though, in my opinion, very low probability to occur in our lifetime. This fiat currency + central bank thing we've got going on is gonna be a hard one to crumble. Today's crisis could unsettle the financial sector, and perhaps we will experience a crash far worse than the great depression. However, you can imagine other scenarios where completely avoiding the market is catastrophic, too. So, what are you gonna do? Take an extreme approach to avoid a low probability event by trying to avoid market risks and thus set yourself up to miss out on what history suggests is the best way to grow your nest egg? Or, follow conventional wisdom and expose yourself to the risk of extreme events? That's up to your judgment, and only you should make that decision.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm Do you honestly know what the difference between a 10% false rally and a 10% sustainable rally will be? If you went 75% into Cash a month ago you are either extremely lucky or had a lot of foresight did you share your prediction on here?
To elucidate this point:
S&P500
09FEB09: 868.24
09MAR09: 676.53 (22% drop)

This is after the market had already fallen from a peak of around 1565 over the course of 5 months, during which it rallied more than 10% at least 3 times. The chances of picking off the right 10% rally were low if that was your strategy at the time. This time around, we've already had 2 days that were 10% up. How close was anyone to buying back in? If they had, they'd have been ravaged the next day. So, is the next 10% rally the right one? maybe you should pick 15%. That might be the point, but if the market only goes down 30% from its peak and you get in at 15% down, you've missed 1/2 of your gains.

Listen, I'm all ears for a way to time the right rebound or to determine that it will not be V-shaped. However, I haven't come up with anything that makes sense AND fits with the data we have on previous market trouble. All I can say is that at a CAPE of <23 and a Buffett Indicator of 109%, the market has recently sustained a higher valuation for the last 6 years. I see no reason that it can't turn around right here from a valuation perspective.

DCA-ing back in does not imply that I think this is the bottom. It implies that my best guess at the distribution of outcomes implies there is some probability (low but reasonable) that the market may recover soon than my best guess. I want to capture that scenario profitably.
fishboat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by fishboat »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:07 pm
fishboat wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:16 pm Very tempted to go in today, but this thing is still early yet. For all the promise of wide-scale testing (over the past week), it still hasn't ramped up appreciably. It's said that nothing changes until someone DOES something. So far we have lots of press conferences and more recently fiscal stimulus..but this addresses the economy..the stock market..meanwhile the health problem continues to ramp up and on that front..we get "We're doing lots of things with the stuff we have, and considering other stuff to do things with.." Yet, nothing drastically has changed. Presumably, we'll get rid of the virus by throwing money at it and talking it to death.

While my retirement is secure with other funds, I did take my pension in cash 16 months ago. It's sat in cash/CDs since then as the 11 year bull market had to correct at some point. I went in $125k last Thursday and $50k on Monday. Barring any miracle discovery of some (panic) re-purposed drug shutting down C-19, I think things will still get worse before they get better. I have $200k+ to go in yet..our numbers are starting to take off..we'll see what happens in the next week.

Meanwhile, Italy..so sad. Their numbers are still out of control with 4200+ new cases today and a mortality rate over 8%. Hard to fathom..

On a positive note..If you want to see what leadership looks like, checkout Andrew Cuomo's press conference for yesterday, March 17. I'm not from NY, but NY is lucky to have him on their side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4r6RrdA5J8&t=1911s
Totally agree. Sounds like you're on the right track. Any strategy to your DCA-ing back in?
I wish I could pen out a well reasoned plan with all kinds of technicals to back it up, but to answer your question, frankly, no. I'm a long-term investor that got Bogle-ized 6-7 years ago. I run the typical 3 fund portfolio at about 65-68% equities...that will increase with recent purchases. I reached a point in what was a somewhat early retirement where my pension growth halted under company management so I took it in cash. Not wanting to invest at all-time market highs, I waited for a correction. I didn't anticipate a "correction" like this. So I guess that makes me an opportunist as I need to get the cash working for me.

At this point(imho) the market is tanking on the fear of what's happening and about to happen. All this is a preamble. When the main event happens, and we start documenting the effects of the preamble, the market will freak out once more...and at that point I'll go in. It'll take a while to start crawling out of this and as we do, what has happened will become more accepted/familiar...I don't see the markets tanking much more. Once we start to recover, and the new cases back off, the markets will come back. Of course, I could be wrong..

As for another poster wondering why one invests in a trending-down market..well..one only knows things will be cheaper tomorrow by the EOB tomorrow(for funds). In the mean time, if you can lock in some money at 27% off the recent highs, while you're trying to figure out what's going on..buying seems like a reasonable move.
Last edited by fishboat on Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Thanks! How very fortunate and humble you are. You could have implied you made a genius market move. Nevertheless, I would suggest if the company was floundering with your pension, then you made a tough but very fortunate decision. I would say you're right on point, and I appreciate the discipline to DCA in despite your leanings that the worst is yet to come. It sounds like we have similar approaches.
settlement12
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by settlement12 »

I sold out last year from 100% equities and went all cash. My plan has been to buy back in with DCA over about 3 to 4 purchased.

I made my first purchase Monday with about 30% of all my cash, now watching and waiting.
Rat_Race
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Rat_Race »

settlement12 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:55 pm I sold out last year from 100% equities and went all cash. My plan has been to buy back in with DCA over about 3 to 4 purchased.

I made my first purchase Monday with about 30% of all my cash, now watching and waiting.
I think we will bottom about 6 months after the next presidential election...so April 20201.
Vihoo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Vihoo »

Rat_Race wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:30 pm
settlement12 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:55 pm I sold out last year from 100% equities and went all cash. My plan has been to buy back in with DCA over about 3 to 4 purchased.

I made my first purchase Monday with about 30% of all my cash, now watching and waiting.
I think we will bottom about 6 months after the next presidential election...so April 20201.
Too delayed, imo. As soon as the media/general public catch onto a turnaround in the hospital situation, the market will quickly start to rebound. I made the call to gut my portfolio as I started to read the actual scientific publications on COVID a few weeks ago. I had an “Oh ****” moment and went from 100% equities to 0% equities in a matter of 3 transactions. I was ahead of the drop so I can now comfortably catch it on it’s way up. You want to know when this will really turn around...just ask your healthcare worker friends/family on their pulse of hospital happenings. This week will likely remain a disaster no matter what the feds try to do to prop it up artificially.
Hustlinghustling
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm
zvez wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am Another day another
Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis

Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off.


Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
I guess I don't entirely understand buying into a market that is clearly trending down, I get the whole market timing thing, but to continue to buy when you can buy the next day for several percent cheaper just doesn't make a lot of sense.

I went 75% in to cash a month ago and very glad that I did, I'm retired (early so no SSI yet) so not contributing anymore, even tho I had a couple years cash emergency fund I felt it was prudent. So I miss the first 10% of the upswing when it eventually happens, I'm ok with that.

As an aside I was an active investor during the dot com bubble as well as teh 2008 meltdown so I've seen bad markets before, this one is by far the worst I've personally been in on.

you buy into a market going down for the exact same reason why everyone else here isn't liquidating all their stocks today in hopes to buy in cheaper.

Eventually we will bottom out. I don't know when that is. but I certainly know that stocks are cheaper today than they were two weeks ago and a month ago.

If we luck out and happen to have the v-shaped recovery you could end up holding increasingly useless cash.

Do you honestly know what the difference between a 10% false rally and a 10% sustainable rally will be? If you went 75% into Cash a month ago you are either extremely lucky or had a lot of foresight did you share your prediction on here?
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC »

Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
rascott
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by rascott »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused

You did well and I applaud you for making a gutsy call. I should have followed you and saved a few hundred grand.
Hustlinghustling
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
To be fair, at any given time in the universe of investors, there will always be a number of people doing every strategy you can think of. But as you point out, typically they won't come out of the woodwork until after the fact and it's paid off. Not to take anything away from your call but I do know a few in Asia who also sold at the highs and openly claimed wilful ignorance of Western investors at the time. But all the more credit to you for seeing that while in the States (making an assumption here). Certainly, a big takeaway for me in this are the pitfalls of regional media bias.

Kudos for laying it out in advance and pocketing a nice saving.
Jim180
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Jim180 »

In hindsight 100% cash would have been the move until the infection numbers begin to decline. Market could fall quite far yet since the market moves 5+% per day and we're nowhere near the peak of infections.
North Borders
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by North Borders »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:31 am
North Borders wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:41 am Fiance and I have about 30k in bonds. Were in our 30's and adhere to a 90/10 portfolio. I nearly switched us to 100% stocks, but decided to wait as it felt like something was coming. I realize 30k isn't that much, but considering moving it all to stocks on the dip. Thinking of buying soon, but the allure of holding for an even bigger dip is enticing. Anyone else making a move now or waiting a bit longer?
Are you insulated with a 6mo + emergency fund? If not, I'd stay right where you are.
Each of us has at least a year's salary each set aside as an emergency fund. (we're both 6 figure earners)

I should clarify that the bond move would be purely in our 401k's.
Hemispheres
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Hemispheres »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Wow, through my tears I noticed an odd coincidence. The day of your original post is the exact freaking day I last printed my "Cap Gains" spreadsheet. I used it to tally up the gains in order to ask my CPA if there was a way to sell the stocks to minimize cap gains taxes. My wife and I had decided to sell out because we had reached our desired asset level. The CPA appointment was for March 2nd. By that date, the market was down 12% or so and I, of course, didn't want to sell after a "correction". Well, I sold out this Tuesday after a full-fledged market meltdown!

Those cap gains taxes I was so concerned with in Feb? Well, I lost at least 6X that amount in the market ... and I still have plenty of cap gains taxes to pay.

PS. According to Excel, I created the spreadsheet on 12/20/2019. What a mistake!
halfnine
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by halfnine »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Probably because there were also people who cashed out 1 year ago, or 2 years ago, or 3 years ago. There are probably always people cashing out thinking it is top, but it doesn't always work out as well as those who did it recently so it goes unmentioned.
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Stef
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Stef »

halfnine wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 amProbably because there were also people who cashed out 1 year ago, or 2 years ago, or 3 years ago. There are probably always people cashing out thinking it is top, but it doesn't always work out as well as those who did it recently so it goes unmentioned.
This. Like there are always people telling you that the crash will come in xx months. Eventually somebody will be right about it.

Where are all the threads of people cashing out in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017?
ks289
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ks289 »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Good timing for sure.

I’ve never correctly predicted tops or bottoms let alone acted upon any of these thoughts.

The gambling side of me is tempted to to break from the boring conservative allocation (age in bonds) during this downturn to not only rebalance (which I’ve done few times on the way down) but now to consider overbalancing like Dr Bernstein has advocated. Any thoughts on this?

viewtopic.php?t=199349
zvez
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by zvez »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm
zvez wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm .
Do you honestly know what the difference between a 10% false rally and a 10% sustainable rally will be? If you went 75% into Cash a month ago you are either extremely lucky or had a lot of foresight did you share your prediction on here?
It was purely luck that I went into all cash but I've spent a career in healthcare and felt this virus had enough issues to concern me. In hindsight I wish I'd have gone 100% cash, but I kept 25% in knowing that someday the market would go back up. Did not share the prediction here, because it was not as data driven as people expect here and would've met with disdain and skepticism.

I absolutely could not tell a dead cat bounce from a real rally and as I said, I'll most assuredly miss the first part of the upside rally when it finally comes. But I sleep better at nite with where I'm presently at in the market.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

North Borders wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:48 am
Each of us has at least a year's salary each set aside as an emergency fund. (we're both 6 figure earners)

I should clarify that the bond move would be purely in our 401k's.
Normal advice regarding the E-fund is to set aside 3-6 months of EXPENSES. Adjust up or down according to your own risk tolerance. Those who are self-employed or dependent on seasonal or travel related industries, tips, etc... are usually advised to hold up to a year of expenses. Given that you are at a year of salary, I'd say you're very conservative, and therefore can afford to take more risk with your portfolio, especially given your age (if I recall correctly, then you have plenty of time to recover from a steep drop).
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sperry8
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by sperry8 »

learningLady wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:29 pm Is anybody buying today or waiting for one more week.
I made my first nibble today. Down 30% from the top was my "buy in" plan. So I bought some albeit a small %. I intend to buy more at each 5% down interval over 30%. If it never gets there... that's fine too.

I also took the time to TLH and shift from some unloved funds to more preferred ones.
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

Prahasaurus wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:37 am
fishboat wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:43 pm ...all that and then there's actual data.

Below is a plot (attribution is in the text) from the article I linked up above.

Japan is an outlier. All the other affected(infected) countries are following identical paths in their initial ramp-up of "positive cases". USA is behind Italy in a time frame that's right in line with CnC's initial assertions.

Italy went up 17% in the last day(2547 cases, in spite of their lockdown) while Spain went up 66% (2086 cases). The article suggests(with good data) that Germany is tracking Italy's path almost identically. The US may or may not follow EU's path, but this is the best data I've seen so far..nearly all countries, including the USA, are tracing the same path.

Rather than arguing..let's wait to see how it works out..it won't be a long wait. Unfortunate circumstances, but when in doubt..buy an index..things are on sale.

Image
One of the major issues in the USA is lack of testing! People cannot get tested, so there is massive under-reporting. In most places it’s not available. Many are scared of the costs. And that leads to why this is going to be much worse in the USA: lack of a national healthcare system. A pandemic requires a very coordinated response, with quick decisions about how resources are allocated. Again, look what worked in China, South Korea, and Singapore. Look how it initially failed in Italy, but they quickly mobilized. This is going to fall apart in the USA with our disparate, for-profit system.

Also, the USA has fewer hospital beds per capita than most parts of Europe, and less than China. Lack of a social safety net for workers will also impact behavior. Sick workers will need to feed their families. Many will refuse care until it’s too late.

Exponential math is a funny thing. Everyone is lulled into complacency. Until one day, you wake up, and it’s a real emergency. In Italy there were only a handful of confirmed cases. Two weeks later, their healthcare system was a war zone.
There is a big Wall Street Journal article on this today in fact:

"America Needed Coronavirus Tests. The Government Failed.

Decisions that limited testing for the pathogen blinded the U.S. to the outbreak’s scale. Here’s how it happened."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-washin ... cle_inline

Our energy is probably better spent on a doing a post-mortem in the future but many of us would like more information on this.......while sheltering..... :|
beth65
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by beth65 »

It would be great to time the market with inside information. I know we are not supposed to mention anything relating to the news here, but did anyone read the recent stories of congressmembers selling millions in late January on the same day that they were notified in closed-door meetings about Covid-19, and then spend the next few weeks downplaying the pandemic and telling constituents not to worry.

Maybe a great strategy would be to just follow big moves made by politicians and C-level execs. It seems some can actually time the market very well.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

beth65 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:58 am It would be great to time the market with inside information. I know we are not supposed to mention anything relating to the news here, but did anyone read the recent stories of congressmembers selling millions in late January on the same day that they were notified in closed-door meetings about Covid-19, and then spend the next few weeks downplaying the pandemic and telling constituents not to worry.

Maybe a great strategy would be to just follow big moves made by politicians and C-level execs. It seems some can actually time the market very well.
Don't trust the news on this. One of them responded that their funds are managed independently. If that's the case, it's coincidence. Whether you doubt that or not, you must acknowledge that it's possible they're innocent of wrong-doing (acting on insider information). I prefer to give the benefit of doubt and trust in the system to investigate as appropriate and administer justice where necessary.
smitcat
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
"I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago"
CnC - you had timed it perfectly, very well done...do not worry about anyone else.

"But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before"
Whenever severe moves like these are over there are numerous folks who describe how they sold at the top and then reentered at the absolute bottom.
Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing. FWIW- If I was able to time a few moves like these I would not be spending any time on any forum nor would I be posting about it.
Good luck and great move.
beth65
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by beth65 »

The question is what if we don’t see the bottom for a while, or we stay at the bottom for a long time.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Because they knew that they would get the same warm response that you did. 8-)
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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