Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
ignition
Posts: 322
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:28 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by ignition » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:40 am

Financologist wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:47 pm
ignition wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:26 pm
But the longer you hold them, the higher the likelihood of a profit right? I just never understand what people mean exactly with "stocks don't become less risky if held for a long time". I tried reading Zvi Bodie's paper for example but didn't understand it at all.
Perhaps there is a risk curve of some sort. To illustrate, is it riskier to hold the S&P 500 index for one week? Or 20 years? Depending on your definition of risk one could argue that a 20 year holding period poses greater risk of the index going to 0. World war or some other terrible fate is more likely to occur over a long period. History has shown us an ever increasing index value. If you plot in spaced enough intervals you may perceive little risk. The future may not be so kind to stock investors.
Yes, but if that happens the stock market will probably be the least of your worries. And bonds or cash probably won't save you in an end of the world scenario where the index goes to 0.

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm

going just as planned?

goblue100
Posts: 1214
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by goblue100 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 am

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm
going just as planned?
He is back to even. The S&p 500 price when the the thread started was 3334.69. The close yesterday was 3337.75. I wouldn't call it a win, yet, anyway.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

smitcat
Posts: 5609
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:51 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by smitcat » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:25 am

goblue100 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 am
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm
going just as planned?
He is back to even. The S&p 500 price when the the thread started was 3334.69. The close yesterday was 3337.75. I wouldn't call it a win, yet, anyway.
You are only back to even , or ahead, or behind after the trades are completed both in and out.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:54 am

goblue100 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 am
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm
going just as planned?
He is back to even. The S&p 500 price when the the thread started was 3334.69. The close yesterday was 3337.75. I wouldn't call it a win, yet, anyway.
If he got back in right now, he would be ahead by about 4.2% (assuming S&P 500). But as smitcat pointed out, he hasn't, so it's impossible to say yet how this will turn out for him.

I sympathize with CnC. He took a lot of flak in this thread, much as I have in my trend following thread. But I would imagine that so far s/he's pleased with the results. The relatively minor threat that s/he must deal is when to get back in to the market. The bigger threat is that he thinks that he'll be able to successfully time the market on the basis of intuition alone going forward.

Selling is the relatively easy part of market timing. Getting back in is usually much harder from a behavioral standpoint at least.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
While I'm not a fan of market timing on the basis of intuition, I think that your logic that there was more downside risk to upside potential was sound (e.g. a 10% decline was more likely than a 10% gain). You correctly acknowledged that it was a calculated risk and that it could have gone either way. And you have set a timer for when to get back in, which is the hardest part of market timing for most.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am

If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
But if it went the other way, you know as well as I do that many here would be quick to point out that it 'proved' that it was a bad move. Many here conflate the quality of a strategy with the quality of its outcome.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
But if it went the other way, you know as well as I do that many here would be quick to point out that it 'proved' that it was a bad move. Many here conflate the quality of a strategy with the quality of its outcome.
One data point either way doesn't show anything. There have been quite a few studies though on market timing. They all pretty much say the same thing.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:19 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
But if it went the other way, you know as well as I do that many here would be quick to point out that it 'proved' that it was a bad move. Many here conflate the quality of a strategy with the quality of its outcome.
One data point either way doesn't show anything. There have been quite a few studies though on market timing. They all pretty much say the same thing.
I agree that most of the academic studies do say the same thing when it comes to objectives, rules-based timing, which is not what CnC is doing.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

finite_difference
Posts: 1753
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by finite_difference » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:27 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
But if it went the other way, you know as well as I do that many here would be quick to point out that it 'proved' that it was a bad move. Many here conflate the quality of a strategy with the quality of its outcome.
That’s fairly said. It’s one market timing move. Not enough to tell whether the “strategy” is good or bad.

Let’s say you make 5% or 10% this time. Or lose it. What then? Where does this strategy lead you? I would argue it leads you where there be dragons.

You at least have a complete, objective, rules-based strategy that you follow. But I wouldn’t call one market timing move a “strategy”.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:33 am

finite_difference wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:27 am
You at least have a complete, objective, rules-based strategy that you follow. But I wouldn’t call one market timing move a “strategy”.
Agreed. Timing based on intuition does not seem to work out well in the long-term.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
Appears logical.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

goblue100
Posts: 1214
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by goblue100 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:45 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
But if it went the other way, you know as well as I do that many here would be quick to point out that it 'proved' that it was a bad move. Many here conflate the quality of a strategy with the quality of its outcome.
I'm sure that is true. But I think the "quality" of the OP's strategy is pretty poor. Yes, he had a hypothesis that the coronavirus would lead the market lower, and that appears to be true this week. We will see if that holds up over the next 4 weeks. It's all just noise to me. Mr Market is doing his dance and shaking the ground. Pretty soon he will get tired. (Reading "Winning the losers Game" currently. I highly recommend it for OP)
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

User avatar
Rowan Oak
Posts: 563
Joined: Mon May 09, 2016 2:11 pm
Location: Yoknapatawpha

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Rowan Oak » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:57 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
Appears logical.
Annie Duke in her book "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts" calls this "resulting": confusing the outcome with whether the decision was right or wrong.
Annie Duke: these mindsets, “resulting” and “self-serving bias”, make us feel good about ourselves, but keep us from learning from past outcomes.
https://www.annieduke.com/how-to-make-t ... the-facts/
Last edited by Rowan Oak on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

squirm
Posts: 2619
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by squirm » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:00 pm

down -500, now the fun beginning to start.
lets see if the fed tries to start propping it up.

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:06 pm

Back up the truck!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Topic Author
CnC
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:17 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
While I'm not a fan of market timing on the basis of intuition, I think that your logic that there was more downside risk to upside potential was sound (e.g. a 10% decline was more likely than a 10% gain). You correctly acknowledged that it was a calculated risk and that it could have gone either way. And you have set a timer for when to get back in, which is the hardest part of market timing for most.
Thanks and that's why I have a calendar event to make myself do it. I have no hopes or intentions to catch the bottom.

Once again I also have no intention to make a habit of this. If the market was not already at an all-time high I would have probably not done anything.

Topic Author
CnC
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:17 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
While I'm not a fan of market timing on the basis of intuition, I think that your logic that there was more downside risk to upside potential was sound (e.g. a 10% decline was more likely than a 10% gain). You correctly acknowledged that it was a calculated risk and that it could have gone either way. And you have set a timer for when to get back in, which is the hardest part of market timing for most.
Thanks and that's why I have a calendar event to make myself do it. I have no hopes or intentions to catch the bottom.

Once again I also have no intention to make a habit of this. If the market was not already at an all-time high I would have probably not done anything.

ronno2018
Posts: 230
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:31 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by ronno2018 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:27 pm

CnC wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
While I'm not a fan of market timing on the basis of intuition, I think that your logic that there was more downside risk to upside potential was sound (e.g. a 10% decline was more likely than a 10% gain). You correctly acknowledged that it was a calculated risk and that it could have gone either way. And you have set a timer for when to get back in, which is the hardest part of market timing for most.
Thanks and that's why I have a calendar event to make myself do it. I have no hopes or intentions to catch the bottom.

Once again I also have no intention to make a habit of this. If the market was not already at an all-time high I would have probably not done anything.
Dude there are a lot of all time highs all the time! "The S&P has now hit 19 and counting new all-time highs in 2019 alone. And that's following 18 new all-time highs in 2018, 62 in 2017, 18 in 2016, 10 in 2015, 53 in 2014, and 45 in 2013. Because of the financial crisis, 2013 was the first time the S&P had reached new highs since peaking in 2007." - Fortune Mag. (yes, during recession years not many).

I am fine with changing your IPS for long term moves, but it is not clear that is what you are doing. :sharebeer

TwoIdenticalIndexes
Posts: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:34 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by TwoIdenticalIndexes » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:29 pm

CnC wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
While I'm not a fan of market timing on the basis of intuition, I think that your logic that there was more downside risk to upside potential was sound (e.g. a 10% decline was more likely than a 10% gain). You correctly acknowledged that it was a calculated risk and that it could have gone either way. And you have set a timer for when to get back in, which is the hardest part of market timing for most.
Thanks and that's why I have a calendar event to make myself do it. I have no hopes or intentions to catch the bottom.

Once again I also have no intention to make a habit of this. If the market was not already at an all-time high I would have probably not done anything.
The market is often at an all time high.

hoops777
Posts: 3038
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by hoops777 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:34 pm

thx1138 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:55 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Some folks got a flu and there are some travel bans and you are wondering about why the market isn't reacting?

Hmmm......

In December 2004 there was a tsunami that killed over 200,000 people. Market reaction was to go up steadily for the next two years.

In March of 2011 there was a tsunami in Japan (a fairly large developed market) which caused a nuclear meltdown which then impacted the entire world's focus on future nuclear energy. Market reaction was to not care and then drop four months later for unrelated reasons followed by a huge run up over the coming two years.

Do what makes you feel comfortable but honestly this is silly and your logic isn't logic at all. I'd recommend turning off the TV and ignoring the web news sites for awhile.

EDIT: I should add, though, sincerely good luck! Most likely outcome is you re-enter about where you left which would be a good outcome for attempted market timing.
How is a localized weather event equivalent in any way to a possible world wide pandemic ?
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

thx1138
Posts: 1116
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:14 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by thx1138 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:41 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
The standard deviation of S&P500 monthly returns is about 5%. So indeed it is going to have to be a pretty significant move to be statistically significant.

Today and yesterday are going the OP's way though! But it is a long way until the end of March and we've seen plenty of dips followed by new market highs. I applaud the OP for sticking their neck out so the rest of us can watch vicariously.

User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 1401
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:22 pm

So far, so good.
A fool and your money are soon partners

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:24 pm

thx1138 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:41 pm
Today and yesterday are going the OP's way though! But it is a long way until the end of March and we've seen plenty of dips followed by new market highs. I applaud the OP for sticking their neck out so the rest of us can watch vicariously.
It's hard for me to envision a realistic situation where stocks will be higher in a month than they are now. A very lucky vaccine that can be mass produced and administered in very short order might do it, but I wouldn't bet on that.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm

There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."

User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 1527
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by oldzey » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:18 pm

"Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck."

Good luck rebalancing market timing! :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:22 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
That was my point earlier, but you fleshed it out better than I did. No matter the outcome, the OP's action will be called 'wrong'.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:25 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:59 pm
There's no winning here for the OP. If the market goes up after he sells, everyone piles in and say how he's yet another fool in a long list of market timers

If the market goes down, it was just dumb luck or perhaps it didn't go down for the reasons he thought and just lucked out. Regardless, he shouldn't be doing it again.

Finally, even when a poster is able to say in advance HOW the market will move and, more impressively, WHY it moves, us Bogleheads will dogmatically hold to it being a dangerous coincidence not to be relied on. All roads lead to "you're wrong".
Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

I used to be "less rigid" and it cost me a lot of money. I think many others have been in the same boat.

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:30 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:25 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm


Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

I used to be "less rigid" and it cost me a lot of money. I think many others have been in the same boat.
For most investors, buy and hold is certainly optimal. But don't project our own inability to market time correctly onto anyone else's claim is all I'm saying.

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:57 pm

Stop back and let us know how you are doing.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:25 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:03 pm


Ignore the outcome. Do you think it is a good idea to sell whenever there is a scare whether it be a potential armed conflict, terrorist attack, potential pandemic, who might be the Dem nominee, etc? Further is it a good idea to set the get back in date a seemingly random ~2 months later regardless if the reason you got what?
For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

I used to be "less rigid" and it cost me a lot of money. I think many others have been in the same boat.
Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:59 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
One problem is if an investor is successful. They may gain confidence that market timing is easy and be tempted to try again.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:11 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm


Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
Make no mistake, I'm a dyed in the wool BH and very rigid in my own investing. You would all be proud and I would never undertake this strategy

I simply see a lot of the pushback as overly dogmatic which is why I respond. For any claim like this, simply see how it plays out is all you can do. I can already hear the next level of criticism though even if someone predicts things correctly several times along the lines of "if he/she has such great insight, then why aren't they running a multi-billion hedge fund profiting off it?".

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:13 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:11 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm


Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
Make no mistake, I'm a dyed in the wool BH and very rigid in my own investing. You would all be proud and I would never undertake this strategy

I simply see a lot of the pushback as overly dogmatic which is why I respond. For any claim like this, simply see how it plays out is all you can do. I can already hear the next level of criticism though even if someone predicts things correctly several times along the lines of "if he/she has such great insight, then why aren't they running a multi-billion hedge fund profiting off it?".
Thanks!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

bitdocmd
Posts: 117
Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:24 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by bitdocmd » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:25 pm

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:11 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm


Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
Make no mistake, I'm a dyed in the wool BH and very rigid in my own investing. You would all be proud and I would never undertake this strategy

I simply see a lot of the pushback as overly dogmatic which is why I respond. For any claim like this, simply see how it plays out is all you can do. I can already hear the next level of criticism though even if someone predicts things correctly several times along the lines of "if he/she has such great insight, then why aren't they running a multi-billion hedge fund profiting off it?".
Nice job OP. Don’t measure your success by whether you are up or down short-term. Much of investing is behavioral, you are discovering your risk tolerance here in my opinion. Your change is very reasonable, it’s not like you all of a sudden went 100% PG because well people will be cleaning stuff more.

There is a lot of virtue signaling on this forum. Let us know what you learn!

michaeljc70
Posts: 6635
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:29 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:25 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm

For my own portfolio, I am market agnostic. And to be clear, I believe for the average investor buy and hold, ignore the noise is certainly optimal as we all know.

But I also will not outright dismiss out of hand anyone else who claims market insight, especially when the market does exactly as how he/she claims in advance it would. If they are "wrong" even then, how is that not plain old dogmatism?
He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

I used to be "less rigid" and it cost me a lot of money. I think many others have been in the same boat.
Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
Buying and selling based on how high or low I thought the market was or how some event (actual or technical) might affect how high or low the market would be.

bitdocmd
Posts: 117
Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:24 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by bitdocmd » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
Appears logical.
No. Analogies are not persuasive. Analogies like this one pretending to be a mic drop have to stop.

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 19658
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:36 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:29 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:25 pm
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm


He had a 50/50 chance either way...like flipping a coin. I don't think that proves market insight. OP even said "I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice."
It's much more than a 50/50 coin flip when you accurately tell not only the direction but what the REASON for the market moving is (a very long list to choose from here). He/she judged the risk and the relevance of that moment correctly. My point isn't to encourage market timing but for BH's to perhaps be a bit less rigid.

I used to be "less rigid" and it cost me a lot of money. I think many others have been in the same boat.
Curious in what ways you were less rigid when it comes to investing. Do you mind sharing?
Buying and selling based on how high or low I thought the market was or how some event (actual or technical) might affect how high or low the market would be.
I too suffered from that years ago! I am willing to bet others have as well.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 29410
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Vanguard Asset-Allocation Fund.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 pm

Bogleheads:

Vanguard once had a market-timing fund originally managed by Mellon Capital Management. It was called their "Asset-Allocation Fund." The fund opened in 1989 and did well for awhile. It was even added to their LifeCycle and Target Retirement funds. Pat and I owned the fund ourselves. I should have known better. Lesson learned.

Bogleheads can guess what happened. The fund became a loser and in 2011 was merged into Vanguard Balanced Index Fund.

Vanguard Moves to Merge Away Asset-Allocation Fund

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Then abruptly, Mellon's approach stopped working. At the close of 2007, just as a 50% decline from the stock market's then-all-time high was about to begin, 100% of its portfolio was invested in equities. -- Over the full four years, from 2007 to 2011, the fund's cumulative return was minus -13.7%"
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Vanguard Asset-Allocation Fund.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:32 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 pm
Bogleheads:

Vanguard once had a market-timing fund originally managed by Mellon Capital Management. It was called their "Asset-Allocation Fund." The fund opened in 1989 and did well for awhile. It was even added to their LifeCycle and Target Retirement funds. Pat and I owned the fund ourselves. I should have known better. Lesson learned.

Bogleheads can guess what happened. The fund became a loser and in 2011 was merged into Vanguard Balanced Index Fund.

Vanguard Moves to Merge Away Asset-Allocation Fund

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Then abruptly, Mellon's approach stopped working. At the close of 2007, just as a 50% decline from the stock market's then-all-time high was about to begin, 100% of its portfolio was invested in equities. -- Over the full four years, from 2007 to 2011, the fund's cumulative return was minus -13.7%"
While not the intention, what's implied here is that outcome determines the merit of the idea..

thx1138
Posts: 1116
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:14 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by thx1138 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:15 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:24 pm
thx1138 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:41 pm
Today and yesterday are going the OP's way though! But it is a long way until the end of March and we've seen plenty of dips followed by new market highs. I applaud the OP for sticking their neck out so the rest of us can watch vicariously.
It's hard for me to envision a realistic situation where stocks will be higher in a month than they are now. A very lucky vaccine that can be mass produced and administered in very short order might do it, but I wouldn't bet on that.
SARS never had a vaccine and still doesn't but still was controlled. New case rates already peaked in China. Rest of the world busy trying to contain it. Absolutely this could look a lot better to the market in a month. And absolutely it could look a lot worse. But it in no way at all depends on a vaccine.

Gardener
Posts: 417
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:03 pm

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Gardener » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:19 pm

bitdocmd wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
Appears logical.
No. Analogies are not persuasive. Analogies like this one pretending to be a mic drop have to stop.

I respectfully disagree. I think it is a valid and persuasive analogy.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 2364
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 pm

Gardener wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:19 pm
bitdocmd wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 am
If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do.
Appears logical.
No. Analogies are not persuasive. Analogies like this one pretending to be a mic drop have to stop.

I respectfully disagree. I think it is a valid and persuasive analogy.
The missing link is we don't know the odds of either the timing being correct or the odds of an accident. The odds of a ticket are extremely low.

There is also no moral imperative to not market time.

Hustlinghustling
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:09 am

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Hustlinghustling » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:29 pm

why in the analogy is being out of the market for a couple months considered a "disaster" in the event it goes wrong but on the flipside, only a "small gain" in the event it goes right? Magnitude of outcome on either side should be similarly weighted. if anything, more weight/credit could be assigned on the market crashing side since prices are known to generally fall faster than they rise ("volatility skew" in options trading)

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 18552
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:30 pm

thx1138 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:15 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:24 pm
thx1138 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:41 pm
Today and yesterday are going the OP's way though! But it is a long way until the end of March and we've seen plenty of dips followed by new market highs. I applaud the OP for sticking their neck out so the rest of us can watch vicariously.
It's hard for me to envision a realistic situation where stocks will be higher in a month than they are now. A very lucky vaccine that can be mass produced and administered in very short order might do it, but I wouldn't bet on that.
SARS never had a vaccine and still doesn't but still was controlled. New case rates already peaked in China. Rest of the world busy trying to contain it. Absolutely this could look a lot better to the market in a month. And absolutely it could look a lot worse. But it in no way at all depends on a vaccine.
I hope that the situation improves quickly for the sake of humanity. But I have grave doubts that it will.

I think that the last several days have shown us that containing Covid-19 is extremely difficult.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Post Reply