Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

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CnC
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Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am

I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.

rbaldini
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by rbaldini » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:48 am

Good luck

jharkin
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by jharkin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:48 am

Good luck... but I will remind you that in hindsight, everyone who cashed out in 2008 ended up LOOSING money vs. those who held on.

Myself included.

DaftInvestor
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by DaftInvestor » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:49 am

If you are that squeamish about your market allocation and a single world event why not just stay with 50/50 permanently?
How many more times will you make 25% shifts in allocation back/forth in a 30-60 day time period?

Hopefully luck works out for you - not the gamble I would take.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:50 am

jharkin wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:48 am
Good luck... but I will remind you that in hindsight, everyone who cashed out in 2008 ended up LOOSING money vs. those who held on.

Myself included.
While I don't support market timing, getting out at all-time highs is a goooooood *Larry David voice* bit different than getting out after a 50% drop.

OP I wish you luck as well. Your timer is an interesting concept; with most people's luck I bet you'll get back in after a single-digit % loss as you alluded too, and then the floor will drop out of markets before Summer :twisted: .

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Tamarind
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Tamarind » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:51 am

The fact that you're doing this practically guarantees a 5-10% melt up by the end of March, so thanks in advance for my gains! :beer

columbia
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by columbia » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:51 am

Good luck.

Maybe you’ll find 50/50 to be your real comfort zone and just stay there for the duration.

thx1138
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by thx1138 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:55 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Some folks got a flu and there are some travel bans and you are wondering about why the market isn't reacting?

Hmmm......

In December 2004 there was a tsunami that killed over 200,000 people. Market reaction was to go up steadily for the next two years.

In March of 2011 there was a tsunami in Japan (a fairly large developed market) which caused a nuclear meltdown which then impacted the entire world's focus on future nuclear energy. Market reaction was to not care and then drop four months later for unrelated reasons followed by a huge run up over the coming two years.

Do what makes you feel comfortable but honestly this is silly and your logic isn't logic at all. I'd recommend turning off the TV and ignoring the web news sites for awhile.

EDIT: I should add, though, sincerely good luck! Most likely outcome is you re-enter about where you left which would be a good outcome for attempted market timing.
Last edited by thx1138 on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

3funder
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by 3funder » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:56 am

This is a bad idea. Given your age, there is no good reason to shift your AA so substantially (unless, of course, you are in the process of discovering that you are more risk-averse than you had previously thought).

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HomerJ
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by HomerJ » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:56 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.
What makes you think 1%-2% is the most you can miss out on?

What makes you think you'll actually get back in March no matter what? If the markets keep going up, won't we still be at "markets at all-time highest"? Which is one of your reasons for selling now. Will you ignore that in a month?

And what if the market does drop, but only 2%, and there are still cases of virus going around? What if some new bad news appears on the horizon in March?

If you are looking at current events right now and changing your AA, I'm thinking you will be looking at current events in March as well.

And April. And May.

There WILL be a crash... But no one knows when, or what will cause it. Maybe the virus, maybe Brexit, maybe something new in June.

Pick an AA that you can stick with for 10+ years, even during a crash, and stay the course.

Because there WILL be a crash. Maybe even starting today. But maybe not today. Timing to miss the crash is very very hard.

The 9%-10% long-term nominal return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes. You didn't have to avoid the crash in the past to get very good returns on your investments.

Sure, it'd be great to only invest when markets are going up, and avoid the times when markets are going down, but that's very very hard.

And not necessary. You still got rich in the past just buying and holding through the crashes.
The J stands for Jay

barnaclebob
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by barnaclebob » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:56 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Doesnt the fact that this move seems so obvious make you pause?

Sequestration, greece going BK, fiscal cliff, china trade wars...all obviouse signs that it was time to sell...
Last edited by barnaclebob on Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

Elysium
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Elysium » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:57 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
The market has more confidence in the ability of Chinese authorities to address the situation that you do. Since the market is more smarter probably it is right given all available information at this time. You would lose more than 1-2% in a month by sitting out, possibly all of the gains of 2020 will come from a few trading days in February with market going nowhere or perhaps even negative rest of the year. If you get back in March perhaps you will not see any gains for the year. If you wish to go 50/50 permanently then perhaps it is the right allocation for you.
Last edited by Elysium on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:00 am, edited 3 times in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by HomerJ » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:57 am

DaftInvestor wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:49 am
If you are that squeamish about your market allocation and a single world event why not just stay with 50/50 permanently?
This is decent advice.
The J stands for Jay

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climber2020
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by climber2020 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:02 am

If you wouldn't mind to stick around and update this thread for the next few years to let us all know what happens, that'd be incredibly useful.

Unlike this person who up and vanished once things didn't work out as planned: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=203792

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Cyclesafe
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Cyclesafe » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:04 am

This would have made more sense if approaching retirement. In the long run, at 34, it's likely to not make much difference either way. If you are right, notch it up to luck or providence rather than clairvoyance or skill. Probably no harm done.

Oh, they just had a vaccine breakthrough. Ooops.
"Plans are useless; planning is indispensable.” - Dwight Eisenhower

theorist
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by theorist » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:05 am

As someone else alluded to, maybe the best way to view this is that your allocation was a bit too aggressive, and 50/50 (or maybe a compromise, like 60/40) would be a better permanent allocation in your IPS? At your age with already 10+ years saved up, there is no need to have an aggressive allocation to (probably) get to comfortable eventual holdings for retirement etc. While the current news is alarming, it is alarming at a scale that we see between once and a few times a year. Who knows when one of these alarms grows into a genuine worldwide catastrophe, but you will have plenty of opportunity to be equally worried in the future. A permanent change that you can live with even through times with manifest risk is for the best.

Just my two cents worth. Good luck! Hopefully you both come out of this with a healthy profit, but also don’t learn the wrong lesson from it then :-).

rockstar
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by rockstar » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:08 am

What’s the rationale for the sale?

Right now, I have two triggers for timing: drops below 300 day ma or S&P priced at 30x PE. One stops my loss. And second gets me out when I think future returns will be negative or zero in the future.

ThankYouJack
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by ThankYouJack » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:12 am

I don't agree with it, but understand your reason. And sorry, I can't wish you luck and hope that the market drops and more people get sick / die from coronavirus.

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firebirdparts
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by firebirdparts » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:21 am

I am also 50/50 so I wish you luck as well. For me it's age appropriate, and certainly more of a long term relationship, but I still feel pretty conservative.

I really did not know much about bonds until recently, and I have been somewhat interested to see these days that everything goes up on the same day. If I thought that was what happened to fellows with 50/50 AA's, then maybe I wouldn't feel conservative.

There is obviously a lot of money "out there", and as a result, everything liquid is overpriced. FWIW. There are certain things that cannot be overpriced, like for instance short term govt bonds.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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White Coat Investor
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by White Coat Investor » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:22 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Beginning investors have a hard time staying the course at market lows.
Intermediate investors have a hard time staying the course at market highs.
Advanced investors stay the course.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

victw
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by victw » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:32 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am


I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.
Why a timer?
Did you consider other options? Some kind of value averaging?
Do you have alerts. Buy orders in place given a particular price or percentage?

Your post comes off as trollish. But it would be interesting to have a conversation about dynamic asset allocation.

Vic

H-Town
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by H-Town » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:33 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Can you share what are your goals by doing this?

1) Risk vs. Rewards? The higher exposure in stocks, higher risk, higher rewards. Is there anything change with this old wisdom?

2) Minimize risk? Have you reached the point that reducing risk at 34 would still put you on track to achieve your goals? Do you have the luxury to do market timing? In other words, one usually can afford to market time if he/she has saved plenty of money and it would not affect their goals by doing market timing.

3) Are you being greedy? Trying to get more return than what index would give you? Many people have ventured down that path, few could go back and brag about their success consistently.

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papito23
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by papito23 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:37 am

Buy and hold... then dabble on the side with play money.

Pick a few stocks. Limit yourself to 1% of your portfolio. Something to scratch the itch.

(Just took some profits on TSLA this morning. Not out of my great wisdom... just out of luck. Not enough to retire on, or even to buy a used car, just to spice things up).
A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise. -Aldo Leopold's Golden Rule of Ecology

MDfan
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by MDfan » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:39 am

This is exactly what I warned my kids not to do. Maybe at 54? But not at 34.

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David Jay
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by David Jay » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:39 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:22 am
Beginning investors have a hard time staying the course at market lows.
Intermediate investors have a hard time staying the course at market highs.
Advanced investors stay the course.
WCI:

Consider this stolen, expect to see it repeatedly in future posts.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Brianmcg321
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Brianmcg321 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:41 am

It’s like wishing someone good luck as they jump out of an airplane without a parachute.
Rules to investing: | 1. Don't lose money. | 2. Don't forget rule number 1.

csmath
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by csmath » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:42 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:22 am
Beginning investors have a hard time staying the course at market lows.
Intermediate investors have a hard time staying the course at market highs.
Advanced investors stay the course.
+1

I like this and imagine a lot of people can identify with it.

surfstar
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by surfstar » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:43 am

Ironically, the worst outcome is that the OP correctly times a dip and receives positive reinforcement.

For your own good, I won't wish you luck ;)

KlangFool
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by KlangFool » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:46 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
CnC,

Please explain to us

A) If you win, what do you gain?

B) Even if you are right, what would it matter? Do you gain enough for this to matter?

C) Please show us the numbers that how much you expect to gain.

As far as I can tell, you are wasting your time and energy for close to nothing.

If you really like market timing, you should put your money into something like the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund, it rebalanced every day.

KlangFool

mbasherp
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by mbasherp » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:48 am

surfstar wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:43 am
Ironically, the worst outcome is that the OP correctly times a dip and receives positive reinforcement.

For your own good, I won't wish you luck ;)
Exactly my thoughts as well.

Dick D
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Dick D » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 am

Rather than saying that you are market timing, you might say that you are uncomfortable with your level of risk and are adjusting your level of risk.

beehivehave
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by beehivehave » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:54 am

Dick D wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 am
Rather than saying that you are market timing, you might say that you are uncomfortable with your level of risk and are adjusting your level of risk.
I could buy that explanation, except that the OP refers to the virus outbreak as the motive.

KlangFool
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by KlangFool » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:56 am

Dick D wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 am
Rather than saying that you are market timing, you might say that you are uncomfortable with your level of risk and are adjusting your level of risk.
He is market timing because he plans to switch back to 75/25 later.

KlangFool

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HomerJ
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by HomerJ » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:57 am

Dick D wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 am
Rather than saying that you are market timing, you might say that you are uncomfortable with your level of risk and are adjusting your level of risk.
That's legit for a permanent change. Not if you plan to bounce back and forth.
The J stands for Jay

rascott
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by rascott » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:58 am

At 34.... this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. And to think the worst that can occur is you miss out on 1-2% is not grounded in any reality.

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Spinola
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Spinola » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:59 am

If I were 34 again, I'd be 100% total market index. Period. Now that I am 52, and hope to retire in 8 years, I'm 62% stocks, 35% TIAA Traditional and bonds, 3% (and growing steadily) TIAA Real Estate. Turn off the TV, ignore the noise. No one knows nothin'.

csmath
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by csmath » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:00 pm

rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:58 am
At 34.... this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. And to think the worst that can occur is you miss out on 1-2% is not grounded in any reality.
I guess to "feel" the 1-2% better he could find the nominal amount and compound that over his investment horizon to better "feel" the risk? I guess that sword cuts both ways though and applies to how much he may be preserving. Regardless, someone needs to link the "climbing wall of worry" graph again!

GoldenFinch
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:03 pm

Do you see a theme in the responses so far? :happy

You are very young. If you are investing for the future, there is no good reason to do what you propose. If you need the money in the next three years, you can put that money on the side, but otherwise you are going to have a hard time getting back in at the “right” time and will probably have more stress instead of less.

I think maybe you are posting here because you want us to talk you out of doing this gamble. If not, good luck.

bkweathe
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by bkweathe » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:06 pm

Good luck! By which I mean, "I hope this move backfires so you'll learn not to do it again, when you'll probably have more to lose".

Brad

Slick8503
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Slick8503 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:06 pm

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:22 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.


I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Beginning investors have a hard time staying the course at market lows.
Intermediate investors have a hard time staying the course at market highs.
Advanced investors stay the course.
Such a terrific way to put it!

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Nicolas
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Nicolas » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:07 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:56 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.
What makes you think 1%-2% is the most you can miss out on?

What makes you think you'll actually get back in March no matter what? If the markets keep going up, won't we still be at "markets at all-time highest"? Which is one of your reasons for selling now. Will you ignore that in a month?

And what if the market does drop, but only 2%, and there are still cases of virus going around? What if some new bad news appears on the horizon in March?

If you are looking at current events right now and changing your AA, I'm thinking you will be looking at current events in March as well.

And April. And May.

There WILL be a crash... But no one knows when, or what will cause it. Maybe the virus, maybe Brexit, maybe something new in June.

Pick an AA that you can stick with for 10+ years, even during a crash, and stay the course.

Because there WILL be a crash. Maybe even starting today. But maybe not today. Timing to miss the crash is very very hard.

The 9%-10% long-term nominal return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes. You didn't have to avoid the crash in the past to get very good returns on your investments.

Sure, it'd be great to only invest when markets are going up, and avoid the times when markets are going down, but that's very very hard.

And not necessary. You still got rich in the past just buying and holding through the crashes.
+1. As Pogo said, we have met the enemy and he is us.

bluewater23t
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by bluewater23t » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:16 pm

I understand the urge, but not at your age. I was 100% stocks for the past 22 years. Rode through 2002, 2008, didnt sell a thing, and it all came back. Now that I am 52, and thinking about retirement, i have adjusted my AA to 60:40 only because I dont need to be as aggressive, and plan to leave it there.

Coburn
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Coburn » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:32 pm

Portfolio amount? Taxable or non-taxable?

Assuming end-March is the deadline of this little experiment, it doesn't seem very long to me. If nothing happens by then, will you go back to 75/25 or extend the wait?

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CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:41 pm

jharkin wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:48 am
Good luck... but I will remind you that in hindsight, everyone who cashed out in 2008 ended up LOOSING money vs. those who held on.

Myself included.
But only if you cashed out in 2008 and stayed out.
Right or am I missing something.

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greg24
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by greg24 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:41 pm

You're 34?

The best reaction would be to find a way to increase your savings rate. If stocks are going down, you want to buy more.

grettman
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by grettman » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:47 pm

I’m sorry to hear that you plan to make a bad mistake.

The good news is you are young enough to learn from it.

almostretired1965
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by almostretired1965 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:52 pm

thx1138 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:55 am
CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
Some folks got a flu and there are some travel bans and you are wondering about why the market isn't reacting?

Hmmm......

In December 2004 there was a tsunami that killed over 200,000 people. Market reaction was to go up steadily for the next two years.

In March of 2011 there was a tsunami in Japan (a fairly large developed market) which caused a nuclear meltdown which then impacted the entire world's focus on future nuclear energy. Market reaction was to not care and then drop four months later for unrelated reasons followed by a huge run up over the coming two years.

Do what makes you feel comfortable but honestly this is silly and your logic isn't logic at all. I'd recommend turning off the TV and ignoring the web news sites for awhile.

EDIT: I should add, though, sincerely good luck! Most likely outcome is you re-enter about where you left which would be a good outcome for attempted market timing.
I'm not doing anything but in his defense, the key question is whether the Chinese government will be able to contain this. If it is too late, given that 5 million people left Wuhan/Hubei before the official quarantine went into effect and how contagious this virus appears to be, it remains an open question. China going into an actual recession is the black swan event that no one could have imagined back in early December. Stuff like this is one of the reasons we get a premium for holding equities .......

The Tsunami was a one time shock. It happened and then it was over. Devastating for the communities involved but it had very little implication for global commerce.

Mr.BB
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:53 pm

People a few years from retirement will naturally want to take some profits and rebalance but that's only because of our age and upcoming retirement. But knowing what we know now if we could be 30 years old we be almost hoping for a recession to make more money and double down on equites. Youth is wasted on the young..:-)
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

Topic Author
CnC
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Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by CnC » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:54 pm

DaftInvestor wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:49 am
If you are that squeamish about your market allocation and a single world event why not just stay with 50/50 permanently?
How many more times will you make 25% shifts in allocation back/forth in a 30-60 day time period?

Hopefully luck works out for you - not the gamble I would take.

Probably the number of times we are at an all time high and at the same time a major war or pandemic breaks out. So I can't imagine that many. But the day we declare war on Russia or China and I can lock in pretty big gains I will probably do so with a portion of my portfolio.
rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:58 am
At 34.... this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. And to think the worst that can occur is you miss out on 1-2% is not grounded in any reality.
Please explain, making statements with no explanation does not help me nor help you share your point of view.

Do you honestly think the stock market will shoot up more than two percent in the next two months? Just a few months ago everyone here said how they were hoping for 5% real returns and would be lucky if they got them. Yet you think 16% returns this year too low to be grounded in any reality?

Was this just spouting off or was there some rational explanation that I missed?
Coburn wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:32 pm
Portfolio amount? Taxable or non-taxable?

Assuming end-March is the deadline of this little experiment, it doesn't seem very long to me. If nothing happens by then, will you go back to 75/25 or extend the wait?
That was what the time for sale was for.

If the market does continue to go up I will take my lumps and one to 2% loss buy back in and figure I paid for lessons learned.

daheld
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Location: Midwest US

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Post by daheld » Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:02 pm

CnC wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:54 pm
But the day we declare war on Russia or China and I can lock in pretty big gains I will probably do so with a portion of my portfolio.
If you have the ability to predict things like when the world's superpowers will be at war, you can probably disregard investing and make a lot of money in the fortune telling business.

Literally nobody knows when or if anything remotely like this might happen, and basing any part of your investing strategy on this is...unwise.

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