Coronavirus and the market

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Kompass
Posts: 246
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Kompass »

Ocean77 wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:54 am I don't think a vaccine matters all that much one way the other. With so many efforts underway, surely some sort of vaccine is coming. It may be a bit sooner or later, and who knows how effective it will be, how many people will get it, etc.

I think what will matter more is how many businesses will go under in the coming months, where will the unemployment rate settle, how much will consumers retrench, etc.
At some point there will also have to be some sort of coming to terms about all of the back rent that has not been paid. That looks like another spot between a rock and a hard place.
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3424
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:36 pm I wonder how the markets will react to the latest news from across the pond. I suspect this won't be viewed as a positive development.

LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans on Saturday to shut down pubs, restaurants and most retail shops throughout England.....
I wondered the same when I saw this yesterday. Then I wondered how/if the election would have a similar or opposite effect. Guess we'll know this week.

columbia wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:29 am If one lives in a colder climate, look for even more restaurants to fold up forever. The effect on the markets? Dunno....
absolutely. where I am at, its too cold to sit on a patio to dine, though places w/ patios were able to survive summer as they had outdoor space. This could be nail in coffin for many restaurants/bars etc.
KyleAAA
Posts: 8698
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KyleAAA »

F150HD wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:53 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:36 pm I wonder how the markets will react to the latest news from across the pond. I suspect this won't be viewed as a positive development.

LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans on Saturday to shut down pubs, restaurants and most retail shops throughout England.....
I wondered the same when I saw this yesterday. Then I wondered how/if the election would have a similar or opposite effect. Guess we'll know this week.

columbia wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:29 am If one lives in a colder climate, look for even more restaurants to fold up forever. The effect on the markets? Dunno....
absolutely. where I am at, its too cold to sit on a patio to dine, though places w/ patios were able to survive summer as they had outdoor space. This could be nail in coffin for many restaurants/bars etc.
As long as it doesn’t turn into a financial crisis (seems unlikely), I don’t see this impacting the overall health of the economy in the long term. Many bars and restaurants will close, but new bars and restaurants will replace them once the pandemic ends. There is huge pent-up demand.
Keenobserver
Posts: 624
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Keenobserver »

Here In NYC, the Boroughs are business as usual minus Manhattan of course. I could not find room to even double park yesterday. People are out and about and desperate to socialize. Man is social animal and you cant take that out of him.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed a post discussing the coronavirus. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on-topic, which is the market.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

This is a "No politics" forum. I removed a post and reply conjecturing on market movement based on one or the other candidate winning. See: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3424
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

COVID crash: Companies that have filed for bankruptcy

In that slideshow.....

Neiman Marcus executives seek $10 million in bonuses during bankruptcy


"...the Neiman Marcus compensation plan covers 17 senior vice presidents, 82 vice presidents, 40 directors and up to 100 additional key employees"

maybe they need more vice presidents :happy
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6377
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

It's fascinating that the virus daily case count has grown by leaps and bounds in the last week, exceeding 100,000 per day several times.

But the equity markets just keep on plowing ahead. S&P and Nasdaq are both 2-3% off all time highs.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
vwgrrc
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by vwgrrc »

Stinky wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:03 pm It's fascinating that the virus daily case count has grown by leaps and bounds in the last week, exceeding 100,000 per day several times.

But the equity markets just keep on plowing ahead. S&P and Nasdaq are both 2-3% off all time highs.
Triples tops forming on all three index :sharebeer
Ed 2
Posts: 1732
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Ed 2 »

Stinky wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:03 pm It's fascinating that the virus daily case count has grown by leaps and bounds in the last week, exceeding 100,000 per day several times.

But the equity markets just keep on plowing ahead. S&P and Nasdaq are both 2-3% off all time highs.
I don’t understand your frustration:). Market basically still flat for the year! Did earth stopped spinning? All companies closed for business? Or you just assumed that if restaurants and barbershops had lost lot’s of business and they represent the majority of S&P500?
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3424
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

Ed 2 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:42 pm Market basically still flat for the year!
if one DCAs every 2 weeks via paycheck, then they were buying all along, oftentimes well below the 'flat for the year' you quote.
guyinlaw
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by guyinlaw »

Just to put it out there - I am very happy with risk on and stock rising. I have high exposure to stocks.

I am surprised market is over the moon about vaccine. Both SP500 and Russell 2000 today hit 52 day high.

1. Much of Europe has been put in some sort of lockdown. There will expectation there will be No lockdown in US nationwide. What about local shutdowns and increase in unemployment rate again? How will non-tech companies do with this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_ ... _lockdowns

2. Vaccine roll out will be very challenging. Most vaccines need two doses 3 weeks apart. I have serious doubts that this can roll out fast enough with govt transition etc.. Are Markets really taking this into account?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-v ... 020-11-08/

3. Stimulus checks helped push the stock market higher. With the next stimulus likely come only in Feb and with Senate hanging in balance it wont be easy..

Code: Select all

Current price above the Feb high
NASDAQ      +27%
SP500        +7%
Russell 2000 +3%
SCV          -8%
It is very hopeful day. But the vaccine is not going to be available to most people in Jan or Feb or March. @ScottGottliebMD is talking about third quarter. Masks, social distancing will be in effect at least until then. So limited travel, continued WFH, etc.
https://twitter.com/andrewrsorkin/statu ... 0339712001
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
Ed 2
Posts: 1732
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Ed 2 »

F150HD wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:13 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:42 pm Market basically still flat for the year!
if one DCAs every 2 weeks via paycheck, then they were buying all along, oftentimes well below the 'flat for the year' you quote.
And what is the point,besides I was trying to make the same one if you read my post completely?
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3424
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

This seems to be a theme article across the web.

Based upon this, anyone see the market diving again like it did in March? if so, when? weeks following Xmas or NYE?

U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic as it stares down the ‘darkest’ days yet

question is about the effect on the market.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1559
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

F150HD wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:22 am This seems to be a theme article across the web.

Based upon this, anyone see the market diving again like it did in March? if so, when? weeks following Xmas or NYE?

U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic as it stares down the ‘darkest’ days yet

question is about the effect on the market.
Not if we have multiple vaccines close at hand with one around 90% efficacy. Even if we shut down we’re within 6 months of recovery.

Now if we have a more dangerous mutation then perhaps.
guyinlaw
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by guyinlaw »

Bill Ackman is buying insurance for a big drop.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bil ... d-19-surge

There is forecast of increased hospitalization, deaths of 2k/day, 400k by Feb. With this plus transition challenges and delayed stimulus - will the stock market notice?

Anyone else plan to buy insurance or reduce equity allocation? If so, how are you doing it?

Staying in the sidelines has been perilous in the last 6 months.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
KyleAAA
Posts: 8698
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KyleAAA »

Estimates from the CDC are around 30-40 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be available by the end of the year (assuming both are approved, which seems somewhat likely). I guess that could be useful to innoculate healthcare workers and maybe a small portion of vulnerable population by the end of January. I don't see how we get 60%+ of the population vaccinated before next August, though. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic? I think it won't be until Q4 next year that we can realistically expect to be back to normal. But maybe we're near-normal enough for the economy to largely snap back to 2018 output by early summer? If I had to guess I would say the market will trade within a range until then. Hard to justify a rally from here without a high-confidence timeline for when the majority of the population will be able to get vaccinated.

That said, I'm not making any changes.
clip651
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by clip651 »

guyinlaw wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:53 am Bill Ackman is buying insurance for a big drop.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bil ... d-19-surge

There is forecast of increased hospitalization, deaths of 2k/day, 400k by Feb. With this plus transition challenges and delayed stimulus - will the stock market notice?

Anyone else plan to buy insurance or reduce equity allocation? If so, how are you doing it?

Staying in the sidelines has been perilous in the last 6 months.
My "insurance" is a liquid emergency fund, with the size appropriate for my life situation and expenses. Plus a stock/bond allocation that I feel I can hold through a crash, even if the recovery is not quick, or there are multiple crashes, or a slow crash, recovery, crash again, or whatever. That has been in place for me for years now. The asset allocation and size of emergency fund re-evaluated periodically as I get older and my personal circumstances change. But they aren't re-evaluated based on current world events.

So there is no need for me to even read the predictions (about the pandemic, or whatever else) from a personal finance perspective. I do watch the pandemic news to make personal health decisions!

For 2020, the pandemic was an unexpected event (pandemics in general are to be expected, but I wasn't expecting one in 2020 in particular). And the market overall has done much, much better than I would have predicted. And the drop in the spring was much shallower and quicker than I would have predicted. And the economy has really struggled (unemployment, small businesses closing or struggling, hotel and airlines and travel having a terrible time, etc) all year. But it doesn't matter that I'm terrible at predicting these things, because my normal plan accounts for the economy and/or the market possibly doing terribly for a while. (The economy and market are not the same, by a long shot.)

The general boglehead suggestion is to look at your overall financial picture, including expenses, job security, how close you are to retirement, etc. Set aside a suitable emergency fund. And pick a stock/bond allocation that will let you sleep at night regardless of whether we have big drop tomorrow, next month, next year, or whenever. Sooner or later, we're likely to have a big crash. Recovery will hopefully come, but recovery might not come quickly. That's always true, pandemic or not. A boring plan, but that's sort of the point. And it works.

Is anyone altering their stock allocation based on various predictions? I'm sure they are. Doesn't make it a good idea.

best wishes,
cj
Valuethinker
Posts: 41711
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Valuethinker »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:16 pm Estimates from the CDC are around 30-40 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be available by the end of the year (assuming both are approved, which seems somewhat likely). I guess that could be useful to innoculate healthcare workers and maybe a small portion of vulnerable population by the end of January. I don't see how we get 60%+ of the population vaccinated before next August, though. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic? I think it won't be until Q4 next year that we can realistically expect to be back to normal. But maybe we're near-normal enough for the economy to largely snap back to 2018 output by early summer? If I had to guess I would say the market will trade within a range until then. Hard to justify a rally from here without a high-confidence timeline for when the majority of the population will be able to get vaccinated.

That said, I'm not making any changes.
The market will be a better predictor of that timeline than any public pronouncements. Stock prices will come to reflect the views of those who really know before we know, if you will.

If we really are back to "normal" by Q4 2021 then the first 6 months of next year will see the mother of all rallies.

It will be about the efficacy of the vaccines when they are available, and the degree to which social restrictions can be relaxed. My own view is that it is going to be a long, cold, grim winter for this. Hospitals in both USA and UK at or above capacity, people dying on stretchers in the corridors. If you saw those NY Times photos from Bergamot in Lombardy (northern Italy), the epicentre of the European pandemic during April/ May. Triage before you even get to medical treatment. Stretchers in the corridors. Masked Italian Army soldiers carrying corpses out to freezer trucks because the mortuaries were full...

However the market will do its rally thing months before things start to get better.
Valuethinker
Posts: 41711
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Valuethinker »

F150HD wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:22 am This seems to be a theme article across the web.

Based upon this, anyone see the market diving again like it did in March? if so, when? weeks following Xmas or NYE?

U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic as it stares down the ‘darkest’ days yet

question is about the effect on the market.
If there is any reasonable sign of a working vaccine, the market will look through this.

If we run back to March 1932, there will be a burst of optimism early next year.

I note the London Stock Exchange started its rally on the first big day of the Battle of Britain (August 15th 1940). As if the market was a better predictor of British air defence against the hitherto all-conquering Luftwaffe than the pundits at the time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dowding_system
TheCowbell
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:20 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by TheCowbell »

I think the question is, aren't we in that rally right now? It doesn't compute, for me personally, that we'll continue to see explosive market growth from this point.

That said, I'm wrong far more than I'm right when I try to time the market, so we'll likely see explosive growth.
KyleAAA
Posts: 8698
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KyleAAA »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:14 am
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:16 pm Estimates from the CDC are around 30-40 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be available by the end of the year (assuming both are approved, which seems somewhat likely). I guess that could be useful to innoculate healthcare workers and maybe a small portion of vulnerable population by the end of January. I don't see how we get 60%+ of the population vaccinated before next August, though. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic? I think it won't be until Q4 next year that we can realistically expect to be back to normal. But maybe we're near-normal enough for the economy to largely snap back to 2018 output by early summer? If I had to guess I would say the market will trade within a range until then. Hard to justify a rally from here without a high-confidence timeline for when the majority of the population will be able to get vaccinated.

That said, I'm not making any changes.
The market will be a better predictor of that timeline than any public pronouncements. Stock prices will come to reflect the views of those who really know before we know, if you will.

If we really are back to "normal" by Q4 2021 then the first 6 months of next year will see the mother of all rallies.

It will be about the efficacy of the vaccines when they are available, and the degree to which social restrictions can be relaxed. My own view is that it is going to be a long, cold, grim winter for this. Hospitals in both USA and UK at or above capacity, people dying on stretchers in the corridors. If you saw those NY Times photos from Bergamot in Lombardy (northern Italy), the epicentre of the European pandemic during April/ May. Triage before you even get to medical treatment. Stretchers in the corridors. Masked Italian Army soldiers carrying corpses out to freezer trucks because the mortuaries were full...

However the market will do its rally thing months before things start to get better.
I think the market has already priced a high probability of a return to normal in Q4 2021, so I don't expect a spring rally. I expect prices to adjust up steadily as we gain more confidence in that outcome. And certainly if it becomes clear we'll be back to normal by, say, May we could see a jump.
peppers
Posts: 1481
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:05 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peppers »

Currently, our city and county has a 30 day stay at home advisory in effect. Seeing how my fellow citizens have behaved in the past.....I'll be home for Christmas, lockdown going on. (Sorry Bing)

On the plus side, there are days when the Amazon, Fed Ex, UPS and USPS trucks are double parked in the street making deliveries. Make of it what you will.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an interchange that was discussing the coronavirus vaccine (medical aspects). Please stay on-topic, which is about the market.

Also see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
7eight9
Posts: 1679
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 7eight9 »

I'm not sure how important Black Friday is to the market with all the on-line shopping happening these days. One thing for sure - it will look very different this year.

Walmart will start counting customers again as coronavirus cases reach record levels
Walmart's Black Friday deals will last three weekends, which will begin on its website before hitting stores a few days later. "Black Friday Deals for Days" encompassed the first and second weekends of November and will include the fourth weekend too, with the deals appearing online Wednesdays.
Although it's pushing people to shop online and use its curbside pickup option, shoppers that go to its stores won't experience the pandemonium of the past. Instead, they will form single-file lines at the entrance and be given sanitized shopping carts. "Health Ambassadors" will be stationed at entrances to remind people to put on their masks. Social distancing will be enforced inside with capacity controls and one-way lanes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/15/business ... index.html
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
iamlucky13
Posts: 2207
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2017 5:28 pm
Location: Western Washington

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by iamlucky13 »

Ed 2 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:42 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:03 pm It's fascinating that the virus daily case count has grown by leaps and bounds in the last week, exceeding 100,000 per day several times.

But the equity markets just keep on plowing ahead. S&P and Nasdaq are both 2-3% off all time highs.
I don’t understand your frustration:). Market basically still flat for the year! Did earth stopped spinning? All companies closed for business? Or you just assumed that if restaurants and barbershops had lost lot’s of business and they represent the majority of S&P500?
At the start of the year, the US market was at its highest point ever.

Since then, VTSAX has returned another 12.6%. The S&P 500 price is up almost 11%. Above average returns are not flat.

How is it hard to understand why many of us are confused? We're seeing above average growth on top of already record-setting levels at a time when a pandemic is on pace to reduce the GDP by about 4% for the year, and a non-trivial percentage of the economic activity that is continuing is funded by a mix of trillions of dollars of corporate and federal debt.

I accept that those circumstances don't automatically spell economic catastrophe, and I recognize that a lot of investors are looking to the stock market in part because expected bond returns are low.

That is not enough of an understanding on my part to be very confident that the market is well valued (regardless of whether it is efficiently valued). I'm still along for the ride, because my long term plan acknowledges the market may crash very hard from a position like this and take a long time to recover.
7eight9
Posts: 1679
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 7eight9 »

Potentially more bad news for the gaming industry.

Casinos in Michigan are closing for at least three weeks in an attempt to control the spread of COVID-19 — a move that gaming industry experts see as potentially a sign of things to come for casinos in Las Vegas. ...
“It is hard to imagine a world in which we don’t see more restrictive operating environments for U.S. retail casinos across the next two quarters,” according to Chris Grove, a financial analyst with Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. “The only questions are how restrictive measures will be and what specific form those measures will take.”

Maybe the way to play this is to look for operators with less (or no) US exposure.
Last edited by 7eight9 on Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed a post discussing the coronavirus. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on topic.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
bling
Posts: 754
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by bling »

are we getting a 2nd chance to market time?

i think it was around this time last year when the first reports of the virus were coming from China. now there's a new strain reported in the UK that's way more infectious. so far they're saying that the vaccines will be effective against this strain.

anyone planning on making changes based on this news?
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6377
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

bling wrote: Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:50 am are we getting a 2nd chance to market time?

i think it was around this time last year when the first reports of the virus were coming from China. now there's a new strain reported in the UK that's way more infectious. so far they're saying that the vaccines will be effective against this strain.

anyone planning on making changes based on this news?
I look at this as a possible second chance to tax loss harvest.

But my TSM shares are up a whole lot from when I bought them in March. So TLH for me is a mere shimmer in the far, far distance. The market will need to fall a long way before TLH is possible.

No market timing for me.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by lostdog »

Just a temporary blip since the vaccine covers it.

Weeding out the Chicken Littles again.
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed several posts discussing the coronavirus. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on topic.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
Tony-S
Posts: 220
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:48 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

bling wrote: Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:50 am are we getting a 2nd chance to market time?

i think it was around this time last year when the first reports of the virus were coming from China. now there's a new strain reported in the UK that's way more infectious. so far they're saying that the vaccines will be effective against this strain.

anyone planning on making changes based on this news?
The mutation in the UK is not affecting my investing. After all, it's increased "infectiousness" is based upon modeling studies and not actual experimental or epidemiological studies. Keep in mind, modelers are like weathermen - they are wrong more than half the time yet not only keep their jobs, but get pay raises! :happy

Of course, once enough epidemiological data are collected it could turn out the virus is more transmissible, but even then it's unlikely to impact my investing because this has no impact on vaccine efficacy. The seemingly important mutations are outside the receptor binding domain of the virus spike protein.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1559
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

bling wrote: Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:50 am are we getting a 2nd chance to market time?

i think it was around this time last year when the first reports of the virus were coming from China. now there's a new strain reported in the UK that's way more infectious. so far they're saying that the vaccines will be effective against this strain.

anyone planning on making changes based on this news?
Lol...same plan but sure would love to see another one month crash. I have some new money sitting in the sidelines being DCA'd in.
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3424
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

Am sure we've all heard this Europe back in lockdown due to Covid-19

My wonderings....what happens in Europe eventually comes to the US (well, it did last time)

Do you believe this will cause another big market dive? will Cities start to shut down again etc?


(post is not about discussing the virus, rather its possible effect on our markets)
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6377
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

F150HD wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:18 pm Am sure we've all heard this Europe back in lockdown due to Covid-19

My wonderings....what happens in Europe eventually comes to the US (well, it did last time)

Do you believe this will cause another big market dive? will Cities start to shut down again etc?


(post is not about discussing the virus, rather its possible effect on our markets)
No, I don’t think there will be a big market dive.

Mr Market thinks that widespread vaccine distribution is soon at hand, and is expecting an economic recovery soon

If we have a “Europe” situation, Mr Market doesn’t think it will last very long.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Cautionary Tale
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Cautionary Tale »

People were shocked in March. We're so numb to the coronavirus by now I think we've developed a tendency to shrug off every new piece of bad news.
H-Town
Posts: 3179
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by H-Town »

F150HD wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:18 pm Am sure we've all heard this Europe back in lockdown due to Covid-19

My wonderings....what happens in Europe eventually comes to the US (well, it did last time)

Do you believe this will cause another big market dive? will Cities start to shut down again etc?


(post is not about discussing the virus, rather its possible effect on our markets)
Do you mean QQQ and “work from home” stocks will rocket once again?

Many tried to time the market back then. Look up old threads. We haven’t heard back from them again.
Hebell
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:56 am
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Hebell »

Given we've had three significant mutations in the course of a year, I can see significantly suppressed GDP grinding along for a long time. With many countries caught in a perpetual catch-up cycle with vaccine rollout, in order to try to normalize their economy, but not getting ahead of it.

Debt financing can probably continue for some time. To date, the cash is sloshed into assets and buoyed this market. I don't think that can continue in perpetuity.

I can envision us on a bit of a plateau for a while, with a grind downward. And during that downward grind, probably some excellent opportunities for some high-tech flyers, if you can just grab the right ones! There are mutual funds that focus on disruptors, so that's probably a good place to start.

As a retiree, it's difficult with one's Bond portfolio, because you worry about the credit worthiness of your holdings, and just how well they will fare during this (I predict) LONG transition. In the past year, this has led me to be quite conservative, using only bonds with fixed maturity dates (tips, I bonds, EEs, bullet shares) and MYGAs.

For ultra shorts, I am looking to tip to ones with more international holdings because I am worried about the US covid response.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68522
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post discussing the benefits of a diet (medical advice). As a reminder, see: Medical Issues
Questions on medical issues are beyond the scope of the forum. If you are looking for medical information online, I suggest you start with the Medical Library Association's User's Guide to Finding and Evaluating Health Information on the Web which, in addition to providing guidance on evaluating health information, includes a list of their top recommended sites.
Please stay on-topic, which is the market.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Post Reply