Coronavirus and the market

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scubadiver
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by scubadiver »

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Last edited by scubadiver on Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tadamsmar
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by tadamsmar »

When with the US market 2nd quarter PE be available?

I see a PE of 22.8 which I assume is based on the largely pre-covid 1st quarter.

This estimates a year-over-year 2nd quarter earning drop of 40%:

https://www.axios.com/sp-500-second-qua ... fc9e5.html

I guess the PE (based on 4 quarters of earnings) will jump up by 10% or more.
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Noobvestor
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Noobvestor »

Interesting to see ex-US (both developed and emerging) catching up to and even outpacing US recently. Seems to me an obvious reflection of relative per-capita cases in various countries. I'm not betting on it either way (50/50 US/intl), just remain happily (and globally) diversified.
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tadamsmar
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by tadamsmar »

I am not a fan of this kind of speculation, but:
The increased probability of an approved vaccine by the end of November is underpriced by equity markets, wrote strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi in a note Wednesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 31552.html
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Stinky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

tadamsmar wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 am I am not a fan of this kind of speculation, but:
The increased probability of an approved vaccine by the end of November is underpriced by equity markets, wrote strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi in a note Wednesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 31552.html
Sounds like this belongs in the “soaring” thread. :D
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Robot Monster
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:36 am
tadamsmar wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 am I am not a fan of this kind of speculation, but:
The increased probability of an approved vaccine by the end of November is underpriced by equity markets, wrote strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi in a note Wednesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 31552.html
Sounds like this belongs in the “soaring” thread. :D
Agreed. The "soaring" thread is the preferred dumpster for this type of "stuff".
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F150HD
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

National lockdown could be the economy's best hope, says Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari
August 9, 2020 4:03 p.m.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/09/90067508 ... ed-preside
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by flaccidsteele »

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases unit, advises against reimposing national lockdowns owing to health, social and economic downsides.

Top WHO disease detective warns against return to national lockdowns

So which “expert” are people going to trust?
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Finridge
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Finridge »

The S&P is just shy of setting an all-time high.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-sto ... _lead_pos4

I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price?
columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

Finridge wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:36 pm The S&P is just shy of setting an all-time high.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-sto ... _lead_pos4

I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price?
20% off sale (like at Macy's) and avoided the then very real possibility of the low being worse than it was. It went swimmingly for me.
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Tony-S
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

Finridge wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:36 pm I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price?
I went from 70/30 to 50/50 in late February then to 65/35 in late March. I've sold a bit in the last month and am currently at 62/38. Will probably just let things ride unless there's a dramatic swing one way or the other in the coming months, then I'll rebalance back to 65/35.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Trader Joe »

100% VFIAX/VTSAX here. I have never and I will never waiver from my asset allocation.

I stay the course. All of you should as well.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed a contentious interchange regarding the coronavirus. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on-topic, which is the market.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

Tony-S wrote: Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:20 pm
Finridge wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:36 pm I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price?
I went from 70/30 to 50/50 in late February then to 65/35 in late March. I've sold a bit in the last month and am currently at 62/38. Will probably just let things ride unless there's a dramatic swing one way or the other in the coming months, then I'll rebalance back to 65/35.
No no no...what you did was impossible. The market prices in everything and market timing is evil. Even when it works...because someday you may irrationally decide to bet the bank and lose.

Of course, in this scenario you wouldn't lose anything as a lot of folks here are 50/50 all the time anyway even in the good years but that's besides the point.
columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

nigel_ht wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:59 am
Tony-S wrote: Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:20 pm
Finridge wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:36 pm I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price?
I went from 70/30 to 50/50 in late February then to 65/35 in late March. I've sold a bit in the last month and am currently at 62/38. Will probably just let things ride unless there's a dramatic swing one way or the other in the coming months, then I'll rebalance back to 65/35.
No no no...what you did was impossible. The market prices in everything and market timing is evil. Even when it works...because someday you may irrationally decide to bet the bank and lose.

Of course, in this scenario you wouldn't lose anything as a lot of folks here are 50/50 all the time anyway even in the good years but that's besides the point.
If one doesn't buy back on at the exact bottom, its failed market timing....or some nonsense like that. :P
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Stef
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stef »

Let's see if the market is truely efficient. Numbers are rising globally, close to exploding. If the market crashes again in the following weeks/months, than you can safely assume that EMH is BS.
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Ketawa
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Ketawa »

Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:22 am Let's see if the market is truely efficient. Numbers are rising globally, close to exploding. If the market crashes again in the following weeks/months, than you can safely assume that EMH is BS.
Explanation needed.
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Stef
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stef »

Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 »

Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
Keep in mind that U.S. cases were still rising until mid-July, but stocks had already pretty much recovered to where they were at the start of the year. This indicates that cases in the nation have not been strongly correlated with stocks, nor does there appear to be a lagging effect.

Further, market participants generally understand that the virus is not nearly as deadly as many initially thought. For instance, even in Sweden, which took a very laissez-faire approach to managing the virus (and was widely and heavily criticized for doing so), there have only been about 5,700 deaths rather than the 96,000 that were estimated by the Imperial College of London study, and many of those are now believed to have been caused by inadequate protections for nursing home residents.

So at this point, we cannot assume that rising cases will have a material impact on stocks.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by aggressive_angst »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:16 pm
Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
Keep in mind that U.S. cases were still rising until mid-July, but stocks had already pretty much recovered to where they were at the start of the year. This indicates that cases in the nation have not been strongly correlated with stocks, nor does there appear to be a lagging effect.

Further, market participants generally understand that the virus is not nearly as deadly as many initially thought. For instance, even in Sweden, which took a very laissez-faire approach to managing the virus (and was widely and heavily criticized for doing so), there have only been about 5,700 deaths rather than the 96,000 that were estimated by the Imperial College of London study, and many of those are now believed to have been caused by inadequate protections for nursing home residents.

So at this point, we cannot assume that rising cases will have a material impact on stocks.
Though, to be fair, through Oct. 13, Sweden's death rate is far higher than its neighbors. Sweden is at 580 deaths per million versus 63 and 52 for Finland and Norway respectively. https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/ And, IIRC, the Imperial College projections that all turned out to be way overstated were all "worst case" where the virus spread totally unchecked, no masking or social distancing at all, and the hospital systems essentially collapsed worldwide.

That said, I do agree with your overall point. Once it became clear that the most of the worst case scenarios were (probably) not going to happen, the market reaction became entirely about the economic impacts of the mitigation efforts rather than the deaths/hospitalizations themselves.

Stef, why do you assume that this isn't already priced in?
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on-topic. In this case, market impacts.

Discussion of the coronavirus itself is off-topic. See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by TheoLeo »

Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
I guess it is official that it hasn´t been priced in...Stoxx 600 down another 2,7 % today. US will follow. I think part of the price of stocks is from long term investors and part is from short term speculators. Now, speculators decided to stop the party and are leaving.
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F150HD
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
I have dry powder in the form of bonds...which is almost cash...
atdharris
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by atdharris »

I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now
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Stinky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
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nigel_ht
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
Fine fine...I'm selling and going to cash. Everyone happy?
protagonist
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by protagonist »

aggressive_angst wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:42 pm
Once it became clear that the most of the worst case scenarios were (probably) not going to happen, the market reaction became entirely about the economic impacts of the mitigation efforts rather than the deaths/hospitalizations themselves.

Did that really become clear?

From what I see, there is as much uncertainty now as ever.

I hear optimistic speculations about an effective vaccine being distributed widely by spring, and pessimistic ones with numbers continuing to increase daily , a huge second wave in the winter due to weather change and relaxing restrictions, and the pandemic continuing into 2022 with resultant economic disaster. The bottom line is nobody really knows, or if somebody does, the signal is being drowned out by noise.

Maybe the market has just gotten used to uncertainty as the new norm and is thus less quick to react.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stef »

TheoLeo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:13 am
Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
I guess it is official that it hasn´t been priced in...Stoxx 600 down another 2,7 % today. US will follow. I think part of the price of stocks is from long term investors and part is from short term speculators. Now, speculators decided to stop the party and are leaving.
I start to think that EMH is some kind of joke.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KyleAAA »

Stef wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:05 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:13 am
Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
I guess it is official that it hasn´t been priced in...Stoxx 600 down another 2,7 % today. US will follow. I think part of the price of stocks is from long term investors and part is from short term speculators. Now, speculators decided to stop the party and are leaving.
I start to think that EMH is some kind of joke.
You would only expect stock valuations to change if the effect of the 2nd wave permanently impaired GDP. It doesn't seem like that is likely to be the case. The EMH may be a joke, but this definitely isn't an example.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
wow, you weren't kidding

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=328813
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Stinky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky »

F150HD wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
wow, you weren't kidding

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=328813
77 posts in 13 hours on that thread.

US had a big day in new cases on Thursday. About 90,000 on the tracker that I follow. If we have the news blaring “cases at record highs” and a rocky open to the market, I predict you’ll see a few more of these threads on Friday. And many more in the days to come.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by BV3273 »

atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now
I agree. I think many hospitals were caught off guard in the beginning now have protocols and practices in place.

A country wide mask mandate would be a good start.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by oken »

BV3273 wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:28 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now
I agree. I think many hospitals were caught off guard in the beginning now have protocols and practices in place.

A country wide mask mandate would be a good start.
People are fatigued. They may not want to go through all that again.
Also, job losses. If there is no support forthcoming, its a bit of rock and hard place. So people may decide working and risking covid is better than being thrown out during winter. Or something.

Either way, the market will probably suffer unless more support comes in.

Or maybe the virus will mutate, become less deadly, and everyone just treats it as the 2nd coming of the flu.
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HomerJ
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by HomerJ »

Stef wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:05 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:13 am
Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in?
I guess it is official that it hasn´t been priced in...Stoxx 600 down another 2,7 % today. US will follow. I think part of the price of stocks is from long term investors and part is from short term speculators. Now, speculators decided to stop the party and are leaving.
I start to think that EMH is some kind of joke.
You really think everyone believes the same thing right now? Is it "obvious" that rising cases will lead to economical problems again?

Couldn't some people believe one future is coming and other people believe another future is coming? And as events continue to unfold, more information will be forthcoming, and prices will shift on that new information?
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

F150HD wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
wow, you weren't kidding

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=328813

If one would be basing that on actual market activity, it's already too late.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

columbia wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:47 am
F150HD wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
wow, you weren't kidding

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=328813

If one would be basing that on actual market activity, it's already too late.
Start with a conservative AA and "rebalance" to a more aggressive one when the market goes down a lot. "Rebalance" back when the market recovers.

You don't have to guess at anything other than whether the US market will actually recover. Since Buy and Hold is dependent on that anyway...
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by atdharris »

oken wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 pm
BV3273 wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:28 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now
I agree. I think many hospitals were caught off guard in the beginning now have protocols and practices in place.

A country wide mask mandate would be a good start.
People are fatigued. They may not want to go through all that again.
Also, job losses. If there is no support forthcoming, its a bit of rock and hard place. So people may decide working and risking covid is better than being thrown out during winter. Or something.

Either way, the market will probably suffer unless more support comes in.

Or maybe the virus will mutate, become less deadly, and everyone just treats it as the 2nd coming of the flu.
I definitely think we will be in for a tough road without more government stimulus, and I worry that won't come until early February. Who knows how badly lack of stimulus will affect the economy until then. A lot of people are going to be hurting.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

no formal Black Friday this year. That always seems to be a catch-up for many stores, I am wondering how this will affect earnings and the economy.

I know they have 'online sales' but it just doesn't seem the same. At that, if many are out of work, wondering how that will affect sales anyway.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by rockstar »

Stef wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:22 am Let's see if the market is truely efficient. Numbers are rising globally, close to exploding. If the market crashes again in the following weeks/months, than you can safely assume that EMH is BS.
There is nothing efficient about an irrational market, where people buy and sell on gut feel.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by rockstar »

atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:39 am
oken wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 pm
BV3273 wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:28 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now
I agree. I think many hospitals were caught off guard in the beginning now have protocols and practices in place.

A country wide mask mandate would be a good start.
People are fatigued. They may not want to go through all that again.
Also, job losses. If there is no support forthcoming, its a bit of rock and hard place. So people may decide working and risking covid is better than being thrown out during winter. Or something.

Either way, the market will probably suffer unless more support comes in.

Or maybe the virus will mutate, become less deadly, and everyone just treats it as the 2nd coming of the flu.
I definitely think we will be in for a tough road without more government stimulus, and I worry that won't come until early February. Who knows how badly lack of stimulus will affect the economy until then. A lot of people are going to be hurting.
My expectation is that we'll get stimulus early next year. This will hurt holiday shopping. I think, the stimulus will be big enough to drive up long term rates unless the Fed embraces YCC. This should push equities down.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by YRT70 »

I was reading a Dutch newspaper today. A guy leading 7 hospitals in the UK mentions they have concrete plans to start vaccination in December. I wonder if this will have any effect on the market.

I couldn't find an English source for the article so here's the Dutch one: https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/arts-over- ... ~a39cc634/
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 7eight9 »

I wonder how the markets will react to the latest news from across the pond. I suspect this won't be viewed as a positive development.

LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans on Saturday to shut down pubs, restaurants and most retail shops throughout England, a stark reversal in the face of grim projections that the country could face a deadly winter from the coronavirus unless it takes draconian action.
\Mr. Johnson presented the measures as part of a new tier of restrictions that will cover all of England. But the steps, which would take effect on Thursday and last until Dec. 2, amount to a nationwide lockdown — something Mr. Johnson resisted for weeks because of the damage he said it would do to the economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/worl ... kdown.html
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Valuethinker »

YRT70 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:24 am I was reading a Dutch newspaper today. A guy leading 7 hospitals in the UK mentions they have concrete plans to start vaccination in December. I wonder if this will have any effect on the market.

I couldn't find an English source for the article so here's the Dutch one: https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/arts-over- ... ~a39cc634/
That certainly has not reached our papers. People have been making bullish noises for months, but it's all vapour ware until the Stage 3 trials and beyond are completed.

Evidence to date is that this thing will be quite hard to immunize for - antibodies in those who have been infected don't last long-- only months. And there are now medically proven cases of reinfection. Also, there are new strains that have taken over from the original strains.

If it's really in December, then the market will stage an enormous global rally - "fill your boots boys, it's going north large" (as London traders used to say).
000
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 000 »

I think a vaccine would be bearish for the US stock index at least. A return to in-person activities pulls the rug out from under the high valuations of tech stocks.
tmcc
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by tmcc »

000 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:41 pm I think a vaccine would be bearish for the US stock index at least. A return to in-person activities pulls the rug out from under the high valuations of tech stocks.
that is an interesting take. thanks for the thoughts

what do you think would be the offset in S&P / small cap versus tech valuations coming down? dare i say it might be a net positive
000
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 000 »

tmcc wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:49 pm
000 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:41 pm I think a vaccine would be bearish for the US stock index at least. A return to in-person activities pulls the rug out from under the high valuations of tech stocks.
that is an interesting take. thanks for the thoughts

what do you think would be the offset in S&P / small cap versus tech valuations coming down? dare i say it might be a net positive
I think it depends on how long until that happens and how badly wounded the "value" businesses are along the way. Losing a lot of your trained staff, needing to sell assets at fire sale prices to survive, and then possibly facing shortages due to an unexpectedly soon return to normalcy (not ordering enough stuff in advance) could leave non-tech stocks with some bad wounds.

Also, I've been thinking that the market may be pricing tech stocks for a future where there is no vaccine and no return to normal in-person commerce forever or for several years. If that's true and a vaccine comes out, it's a bloodbath for tech stocks, but it may take value stocks some time to build up in-person business again.

Over the long run I would expect the total stock index to move positively, but for a short term trader (1 day - 3 months), I'm not sure a vaccine is bullish.
Ocean77
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Ocean77 »

I don't think a vaccine matters all that much one way the other. With so many efforts underway, surely some sort of vaccine is coming. It may be a bit sooner or later, and who knows how effective it will be, how many people will get it, etc.

I think what will matter more is how many businesses will go under in the coming months, where will the unemployment rate settle, how much will consumers retrench, etc.
columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

Ocean77 wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:54 am I don't think a vaccine matters all that much one way the other. With so many efforts underway, surely some sort of vaccine is coming. It may be a bit sooner or later, and who knows how effective it will be, how many people will get it, etc.

I think what will matter more is how many businesses will go under in the coming months, where will the unemployment rate settle, how much will consumers retrench, etc.
If one lives in a colder climate, look for even more restaurants to fold up forever. The effect on the markets? Dunno....
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CyclingDuo »

Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:22 pm
F150HD wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am
F150HD wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am wondering when the first "selling and going to cash" thread will pop up in Nov or Dec.

Seemed to be many last Spring.
There are three trading days left in October (including today).

I think that "selling and going to cash" threads will pop up in October. Watch for it.
wow, you weren't kidding

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=328813
77 posts in 13 hours on that thread.

US had a big day in new cases on Thursday. About 90,000 on the tracker that I follow. If we have the news blaring “cases at record highs” and a rocky open to the market, I predict you’ll see a few more of these threads on Friday. And many more in the days to come.
That thread got locked which automatically guarantees more threads about going to cash will pop up soon. :beer

CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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