Coronavirus and the market

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Seasonal
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:52 pm

brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm
brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.
But what has changed so favorably in that regard since Friday?
Probably a combination of 'doom fatigue' (i.e. things stop being scary the more you hear about them) and the somewhat straight talk by Trump and Cuomo that restarting the economy is coming soon.
Neither the economy nor the market is going to approach normal until the virus is stopped. That's not happening in the next month, at least not according to anyone I've seen who has a reasonable expertise in epidemiology.

As Liz Cheney put it: "There will be no normally functioning economy if our hospitals are overwhelmed and thousands of Americans of all ages, including our doctors and nurses, lay dying because we have failed to do what’s necessary to stop the virus."

peskypesky
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:53 pm

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:47 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone in the U.S. will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death toll* doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.

*Corrected from original posting; thanks willthrill81.
Thank you.

My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.

Some people won't believe the hurricane is so bad, until it rips the roof off their home or throws a tree through their front window.
You may be right about the market... but, I'd disagree about Americans, in general, being in denial. At least, not with the media coverage we have. I have family in several different states - including the hardest hit states - and, my sense from them is, generally speaking, Americans are taking it very seriously. I see those spring break photos and that certainly isn't encouraging... so, I suppose there's that. :|
Really? There are even people on this thread today who are in denial.

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knpstr
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by knpstr » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:58 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:53 pm
Really? There are even people on this thread today who are in denial.
We're in essential lockdown here in MI.
There was a 2nd wave of frenzy at stores once the ordered was announced (Our order is lockdown for 3 weeks, essential businesses/travel for supplies only or as our governor says it is a "stay home" order)

People even not concerned per se have said they'll be staying home and complying with the order, no "entertainment" is open anyway. That being said 100% compliance is never going to happen anywhere.
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willthrill81
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:52 pm
brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm
brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.
But what has changed so favorably in that regard since Friday?
Probably a combination of 'doom fatigue' (i.e. things stop being scary the more you hear about them) and the somewhat straight talk by Trump and Cuomo that restarting the economy is coming soon.
Neither the economy nor the market is going to approach normal until the virus is stopped. That's not happening in the next month, at least not according to anyone I've seen who has a reasonable expertise in epidemiology.

As Liz Cheney put it: "There will be no normally functioning economy if our hospitals are overwhelmed and thousands of Americans of all ages, including our doctors and nurses, lay dying because we have failed to do what’s necessary to stop the virus."
I'm strongly inclined to agree. When consumers are too scared to get out of their homes because thousands are dying all over the country from the virus, easing up on lock down restrictions is not going to be a magic bullet to boosting corporate earnings and, in turn, stocks.

It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

JackoC
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by JackoC » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:35 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:53 pm
Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:47 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype.
Thank you.
My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.
You may be right about the market... but, I'd disagree about Americans, in general, being in denial.
Really? There are even people on this thread today who are in denial.
I'd be basically the other way around on it, that is 'people' vs the market. 'People', ie some people on the internet, on TV, anecdotally in real life, etc being 'in denial' according to the impression of others, that seems pretty likely. People's impressions and perceptions vary, and I've seen some expressions on internet (I'm thinking comment threads on articles of some online publications more than posts here) I think underestimate the severity of this problem quite obviously. Although in everyday life lately (inner NY area) I've seen less evidence of 'people' taking it less than very seriously.

But to say the stock market, real money at risk dominated by well informed people, is 'in denial' remains IMO a very bold claim. I'm unconvinced it's any easier to make a better judgement than the market now about this situation compared to other issues in general in normal times. Not that the market 'is never wrong', but it has proven consistently extremely difficult to read that *in real time*. Keeping in mind for this case a lot of what 'people' care about is their own health, that of loved ones and to varying generally progressively diminishing level that of friends, neighbors, fellow citizens and humanity as a whole. The market does not really care per se about that. Only to the extent bad health outcomes hobble earnings, clearly a lot in the short term (but how much exactly?), somewhat or not in the medium to long term: stocks are perpetual instruments. I personally don't think being a doctor or knowing them (my brother is one FWIW) gives a lot of insight into whether the market 'has it right' on what discount to apply to pre-pandemic prices.

peskypesky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:15 pm

The amount of denial on this thread is proof we are not at the bottom.

JackoC
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by JackoC » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:34 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:15 pm
The amount of denial on this thread is proof we are not at the bottom.
What some non-scientific sampling of retail investors thinks is never 'proof' of anything, on this issue or any other. It's always been extremely difficult to relate anecdotal impressions of 'people's' opinions to market prices. I don't see a reason this case is exceptional in that particular regard, though it might be in many other ways.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by epilnk » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:38 pm

Things go up, things go down, things keep going up and down. Anyone trying to capitalize on short term market movements is gambling, not investing.

This is where a written IPS comes in handy. You think through different scenarios calmly, when you aren’t actually facing them; you can lay out your if-then scenarios in advance. Then when you hit your predetermined sell signal you know it’s time to sell, you aren’t doing it out of panic. This is a form of staying the course - you set a course that includes instructions on when to change course.

peskypesky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm

JackoC wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:34 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:15 pm
The amount of denial on this thread is proof we are not at the bottom.
What some non-scientific sampling of retail investors thinks is never 'proof' of anything, on this issue or any other. It's always been extremely difficult to relate anecdotal impressions of 'people's' opinions to market prices. I don't see a reason this case is exceptional in that particular regard, though it might be in many other ways.
Naw, this is proof.

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watchnerd
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm


It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
I'm not following...what's surprising about people saying it's a dead cat bounce?
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peskypesky
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:42 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm


It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
I'm not following...what's surprising about people saying it's a dead cat bounce?
Nothing.

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willthrill81
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:50 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm


It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
I'm not following...what's surprising about people saying it's a dead cat bounce?
Because it implies that future prices are headed downward. BHs usually don't make such predictions.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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watchnerd
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:56 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:50 pm


Because it implies that future prices are headed downward. BHs usually don't make such predictions.
Ah.

I guess, in my case, having an opinion on what I'm seeing is different from thinking I *know* what is happening. ;)
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nps
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nps » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm
It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
Why is it surprising? People make predictions and offer explanations about daily market movements all the time around here.

I don't understand the fascination with it, but hard to tell if it's just blowing off steam or is actually forming the basis of investment decisions.

Triple-Nickels
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by Triple-Nickels » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:03 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:53 pm
Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:47 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone in the U.S. will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death toll* doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.

*Corrected from original posting; thanks willthrill81.
Thank you.

My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.

Some people won't believe the hurricane is so bad, until it rips the roof off their home or throws a tree through their front window.
You may be right about the market... but, I'd disagree about Americans, in general, being in denial. At least, not with the media coverage we have. I have family in several different states - including the hardest hit states - and, my sense from them is, generally speaking, Americans are taking it very seriously. I see those spring break photos and that certainly isn't encouraging... so, I suppose there's that. :|
Really? There are even people on this thread today who are in denial.
+1000 ... Let's see what the tone of these denial threads are when NY hits peak numbers in 10-14 days, and California not far behind NY. Sad days ahead, just wait and see.

On a positive note, THANK YOU to all the medical professionals and first responders who are doing everything they possibly can to save lives from this public health catastrophe, including putting their lives on the line for the general population, we're forever grateful!

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calmaniac
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by calmaniac » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:03 pm

JackoC wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:35 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm

I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype.
Thank you.
My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.
I personally don't think being a doctor or knowing them (my brother is one FWIW) gives a lot of insight into whether the market 'has it right' on what discount to apply to pre-pandemic prices.
I agree, being a physician does not give me a greater insight into the market. What I do have is greater insight into is the fragility of the healthcare system. I worked in LA County hospital during the mid-1980's during the height of AIDS and watched young patients die due to lack of resources and treatments. When I superimpose what I know about human behavior from that experience on top of the huge numbers of patients I expect will get substandard medical care due to overcrowding, I see angry Grizzly Bears. Yes, I don't think that has been fully priced into the market.
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:52 pm
As Liz Cheney put it: "There will be no normally functioning economy if our hospitals are overwhelmed and thousands of Americans of all ages, including our doctors and nurses, lay dying because we have failed to do what’s necessary to stop the virus."
When I agree with Liz Cheney it MUST be a very bearish sign for the market. [LadyGeek that was a joke, not a political statement] :D

My apologies if I quoted above out of context. I hate huge blocks of text.
62 yo, 1-3y til retire. AA 70/30: 30% S&P, 16% value, 14% intl, 10% EM, 30% short/int govt bonds. DW & my Fed pensions now ≈60% of expenses. Taking SS @age 70--> pension+SS ≈100% of expenses.

bitdocmd
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by bitdocmd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm


It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
I'm not following...what's surprising about people saying it's a dead cat bounce?
Let's be precise. It's called a short squeeze.

Linkin06
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Linkin06 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:22 pm

I mostly subscribe to the fact that disease will get bad or people continue to be scared, so market drops.

But there is some correlation it seems warmer climates don't really have much corona ie Vietnam?? Perhaps this virus is less stable at those temps? And summer really could cure it. I'm not a crazy tin foil Trump either. Market could go up through warm weather, but winter time corona could come again if we don't have vaccine by then.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by DonIce » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:45 pm

Linkin06 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:22 pm
I mostly subscribe to the fact that disease will get bad or people continue to be scared, so market drops.

But there is some correlation it seems warmer climates don't really have much corona ie Vietnam?? Perhaps this virus is less stable at those temps? And summer really could cure it. I'm not a crazy tin foil Trump either. Market could go up through warm weather, but winter time corona could come again if we don't have vaccine by then.
Seems like a mass produced vaccine by October is unlikely from everything I've read. However, some drugs seem to be promising as a treatment and conclusive trials can be completed and scale production can be in place by then. Same with increased numbers of hospital beds with ventilators and supplies of PPE. If the virus recedes for the summer and returns in the fall, the world will be much better prepared for it the 2nd time around.

But if you look at current growth rates, most everyone will be infected by end of April anyway, except where isolation measures prove successful.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:53 pm

The quote below came from the general discussion thread, but I'm quoting it here because I see it as highly relevant in this thread as well.
folkher0 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:42 pm
So...

I’ve read several posts in this thread with the them of “this is no big deal” or that we are overreacting.

I’m a doctor in New York. I work at a large tertiary care hospital. In the last 4 days the COVID census is up to about 20% of our beds. 2/3 these are ICU patients. Staff are being pulled from totally unrelated specialties to care for these patients. All other clinical programs are mothballed. Unless you are dying, you probably cannot get care from a specialist. Non Intensivists are taking crash courses on ventilator management. If you come down with this virus you may very well be cared for by a gynecologist.

This is unprecedented. We have never seen anything remotely like this. We have been at this for about a week and we are at capacity. Despite what you may read, young people get very ill too. They may not be dying at the same rate as older folk, but a week on the ventilator will scar you for life and take 6 months to recover from.

This is just the beginning. We anticipate this to worsen over the next 2-4 weeks. Doctors and nurses are getting sick.

Every doctor I know with half a brain is scared out of their whits.

Listen to me.
This is not the flu.

Please stay home no matter what the president says.
Thank you for your information and hard work folkher0.

To everyone else, who knows more about how this is likely to progress: a physician with experience on the front lines (and all of those he has spoken with) or the market that went up 9% today? In my mind, it's no question at all.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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1789
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 1789 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:00 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:53 pm
The quote below came from the general discussion thread, but I'm quoting it here because I see it as highly relevant in this thread as well.
folkher0 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:42 pm
So...

I’ve read several posts in this thread with the them of “this is no big deal” or that we are overreacting.

I’m a doctor in New York. I work at a large tertiary care hospital. In the last 4 days the COVID census is up to about 20% of our beds. 2/3 these are ICU patients. Staff are being pulled from totally unrelated specialties to care for these patients. All other clinical programs are mothballed. Unless you are dying, you probably cannot get care from a specialist. Non Intensivists are taking crash courses on ventilator management. If you come down with this virus you may very well be cared for by a gynecologist.

This is unprecedented. We have never seen anything remotely like this. We have been at this for about a week and we are at capacity. Despite what you may read, young people get very ill too. They may not be dying at the same rate as older folk, but a week on the ventilator will scar you for life and take 6 months to recover from.

This is just the beginning. We anticipate this to worsen over the next 2-4 weeks. Doctors and nurses are getting sick.

Every doctor I know with half a brain is scared out of their whits.

Listen to me.
This is not the flu.

Please stay home no matter what the president says.
Thank you for your information and hard work folkher0.

To everyone else, who knows more about how this is likely to progress: a physician with experience on the front lines (and all of those he has spoken with) or the market that went up 9% today? In my mind, it's no question at all.
Thanks for sharing. When the business man shut down the country, i understood this was dead serious. I don't care what markets do anymore. I am focused on protecting my family as much as i can do. I think April will be a survival month for us.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by whodidntante » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:09 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm
60 Minutes tonight:

Coronavirus and the economy: Best and worst case scenarios from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari...the former Treasury official who was in charge of the $700 billion government response to the 2008 financial crisis tells 60 Minutes what tools the Federal Reserve can use to combat the economic stress being caused by COVID-19.

Image

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-and-economy-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-60-minutes-2020-03-22/
I watched that interview earlier today and enjoyed it. Kashkari speaks plainly. I guess he doesn't subscribe to Fed-speak.

"I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
- Alan Greenspan

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watchnerd
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:13 pm

mister_sparkle wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:04 pm
Quincy62 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:39 pm
The leader of this country thinks we can do away with the containment in 19 days. Easter Sunday. I can't even fathom that level of ignorance. The disease spread will be extreme at that point. Of course lifting the quarantine won't happen.


 So it is difficult to see how the markets can endure this kind of leadership without a lot of unforced disasters over the next several months.
I personally view this as a cynical ploy to use as justification for any implosion in the economy/stock market that the leader can/will use to justify being reelected. "I wanted to re-open the economy but my 'medical experts' said I couldn't do it. I'm blameless."
The governors and local authorities have autonomy on this.

Living in the Seattle area, on the frontlines, things aren't flawless, but I'm actually impressed with how state and local politicians have come together.

So no matter what is said in DC about re-opening the economy, it's a local decision.

The Fed government can help, or get out of the way. Hopefully it helps.
Last edited by watchnerd on Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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APX32
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by APX32 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm

bitdocmd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:00 pm


It's actually surprising to me to hear how many seasoned posters have been quick to decry today's spike as illogical and obviously a dead cat bounce.
I'm not following...what's surprising about people saying it's a dead cat bounce?
Let's be precise. It's called a short squeeze.
An extreme move on the upside such as the one we had today does not happen during good times or a healthy market. So, it should come as no surprise that today’s rally has been correctly characterized as a bear/relief/suckers/short-squeeze rally. We are not even remotely out of the woods yet with respect to this virus and when that reality hits home, new lows will follow. Today was a gift to mitigate some losses and get out before things get worse.

The actions during good times is what we were getting during 2019 and thru Feb 20 this year, smaller gains but consistently higher with no crazy moves and low volatility.

To be honest, it’s not that hard to make money in this kind of environment if you have a play account. Extreme days, both on the upside or downside are usually followed by an opposite move in the following day or two, so you can position accordingly and profit.

I intend to keep some cash on hand to trade in and out of UPRO and SDS until things settle down. I’m stuck working from home for at least the next 5 weeks, so that’ll be another way to stay busy.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by DonIce » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 pm

APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
I intend to keep some cash on hand to trade in and out of UPRO and SDS until things settle down. I’m stuck working from home for at least the next 5 weeks, so that’ll be another way to stay busy.
I've been day-trading ES futures a bit the last couple days based on these kinds of swings and so far have made out like a bandit. Couldn't resist. Very un-boglehead, I know.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:48 pm

DonIce wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 pm
APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
I intend to keep some cash on hand to trade in and out of UPRO and SDS until things settle down. I’m stuck working from home for at least the next 5 weeks, so that’ll be another way to stay busy.
I've been day-trading ES futures a bit the last couple days based on these kinds of swings and so far have made out like a bandit. Couldn't resist. Very un-boglehead, I know.
Doesn't this suck up the better part of the hours in a day babysitting these?

Serious question, as I've never tried day-trading.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:05 am

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:09 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm
60 Minutes tonight:

Coronavirus and the economy: Best and worst case scenarios from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari...the former Treasury official who was in charge of the $700 billion government response to the 2008 financial crisis tells 60 Minutes what tools the Federal Reserve can use to combat the economic stress being caused by COVID-19.

Image

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-and-economy-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-60-minutes-2020-03-22/
I watched that interview earlier today and enjoyed it. Kashkari speaks plainly. I guess he doesn't subscribe to Fed-speak.

"I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
- Alan Greenspan
yes he has a good presence, definitely easy to follow/understand and he was very concise, didn't leave room for what-ifs after each question. I liked the interview as well.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:14 am

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:48 pm
DonIce wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 pm
APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
I intend to keep some cash on hand to trade in and out of UPRO and SDS until things settle down. I’m stuck working from home for at least the next 5 weeks, so that’ll be another way to stay busy.
I've been day-trading ES futures a bit the last couple days based on these kinds of swings and so far have made out like a bandit. Couldn't resist. Very un-boglehead, I know.
Doesn't this suck up the better part of the hours in a day babysitting these?

Serious question, as I've never tried day-trading.
Yes... you've gotta keep a careful eye on it while you have a position open, for sure. Especially with a futures contract as the leverage is huge. But you don't have to have positions open all day long. I was doing trades that lasted a few tens of minutes for ~0.1-0.5% moves. Hop in while the market is trending in a circuit direction, hop out as soon as it feels like the trend is breaking.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by seychellois_lib » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:20 am

This may have been posted previously but the best comprehensive covid19 testing and results data I have seen for USA.

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

To previous posters remarks regarding market direction. My guess as the test positives and patient deaths go up, the market is going to go down. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty good correlation once the noise is filtered out. Secure for heavy rolls.

I have a feeling these numbers and the surrounding psychology will put paid to early easing of social restrictions. Well, they might be eased but most people would probably rather not be dead and will, therefore, chill in front of the TV. Positive results from various therapies in test could be disruptive to this narrative. Let's hear it for disruption.

At some point we turn the corner. It will be fascinating to see what happens when the top of the curve is confirmed to be in.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:55 am

Now Prince Charles has it.
And Jackson Browne.

Louisiana is being overwhelmed already. And so is New York.

Germany's health minister said they're just at the "beginning".

And people think the market had this all priced in? :oops:

Yesterday's rally will be short-lived IMO.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nps » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:57 am

APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
To be honest, it’s not that hard to make money in this kind of environment if you have a play account.
That's an interesting concept. If it's not that hard to make money, why limit it to a play account?

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:18 am

nps wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:57 am
APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
To be honest, it’s not that hard to make money in this kind of environment if you have a play account.
That's an interesting concept. If it's not that hard to make money, why limit it to a play account?
He didn't say "a lot of money". Maybe he's just talking about a couple of dollars.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:01 am

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:48 pm
DonIce wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 pm
APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:28 pm
I intend to keep some cash on hand to trade in and out of UPRO and SDS until things settle down. I’m stuck working from home for at least the next 5 weeks, so that’ll be another way to stay busy.
I've been day-trading ES futures a bit the last couple days based on these kinds of swings and so far have made out like a bandit. Couldn't resist. Very un-boglehead, I know.
Doesn't this suck up the better part of the hours in a day babysitting these?

Serious question, as I've never tried day-trading.
Start small, and when you win take your original bet off the table and play with house money is what I do since this isn’t what I usually do. For some folks it’s skill, for me it’s gambling. :)

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by JackoC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am

calmaniac wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:03 pm
JackoC wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:35 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm

I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news).
Thank you.
My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians.
I personally don't think being a doctor or knowing them (my brother is one FWIW) gives a lot of insight into whether the market 'has it right' on what discount to apply to pre-pandemic prices.
I agree, being a physician does not give me a greater insight into the market.... When I superimpose what I know about human behavior from that experience on top of the huge numbers of patients I expect will get substandard medical care due to overcrowding, I see angry Grizzly Bears. Yes, I don't think that has been fully priced into the market.
But notwithstanding the first statement the following ones *do* claim a special insight. You know how the situation should translate to prices in a way the market as a whole is getting wrong. Again in calm or crazy times there are always opinions about the market being much too low or high. Since it moves around partly randomly in the short term lots of those opinions turn out right (often even opposing ones can be claimed to be right, 'well it did go up like I said...though it's since gone down' etc). But being right a high enough % of the time for it to be useful is really hard. Only people with very special powers of insight can do that. Maybe that's you. And the lack of any specificity in your projection ('not priced in', relative to the recent rally or previous bottom?, to the tune of 5%, 10%, 50% down from here?) makes it easier to be 'right'. :happy

I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by seychellois_lib » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:59 am

JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
calmaniac wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:03 pm
JackoC wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:35 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm

I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news).
Thank you.
My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians.
I personally don't think being a doctor or knowing them (my brother is one FWIW) gives a lot of insight into whether the market 'has it right' on what discount to apply to pre-pandemic prices.
I agree, being a physician does not give me a greater insight into the market.... When I superimpose what I know about human behavior from that experience on top of the huge numbers of patients I expect will get substandard medical care due to overcrowding, I see angry Grizzly Bears. Yes, I don't think that has been fully priced into the market.
But notwithstanding the first statement the following ones *do* claim a special insight. You know how the situation should translate to prices in a way the market as a whole is getting wrong. Again in calm or crazy times there are always opinions about the market being much too low or high. Since it moves around partly randomly in the short term lots of those opinions turn out right (often even opposing ones can be claimed to be right, 'well it did go up like I said...though it's since gone down' etc). But being right a high enough % of the time for it to be useful is really hard. Only people with very special powers of insight can do that. Maybe that's you. And the lack of any specificity in your projection ('not priced in', relative to the recent rally or previous bottom?, to the tune of 5%, 10%, 50% down from here?) makes it easier to be 'right'. :happy

I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.
I totally agree. Many of us are sitting at home "speculating" on what might be and why out of pure boredom. Right now there isn't much else to do. It just doesn't seem at all interesting to speculate about whether my Bougainvillea is going to bloom this week or next.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MisterMister » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am

Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.

All this CV spending does come at a cost.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by calmaniac » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:37 am

JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.
Agreed. Words of wisdom.

But....this time it's different.....[Joke]
Last edited by calmaniac on Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:42 am

MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am
Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.
Only on 3-month T-bills at the moment (-.04%).

I still don't see the point in why an individual investor would buy bonds at negative yields when there are still positive yields to be had from other instruments (e.g. high-yield savings accounts).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:42 am

I removed several off-topic posts. The main intent of the post should be focused on the market.

Also, this is a "no politics" forum. See: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by nigel_ht » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:45 am

JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.
Ahhh...but you can glean from the forum that volatility is going to be abnormally high for the short term. If you can stand the risk you can use that knowledge to make some money. Not my area but folks are doing it.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by JackoC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:49 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:45 am
JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.
Ahhh...but you can glean from the forum that volatility is going to be abnormally high for the short term.
I could also swipe my phone, see the VIX is 62, and know that. :happy

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by nigel_ht » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:52 am

JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:49 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:45 am
JackoC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
I remain unconvinced that I can make any useful prediction of the market's future moves, or glean them by reading a forum like this. That I'm pretty sure about, the market's future level not sure at all.
Ahhh...but you can glean from the forum that volatility is going to be abnormally high for the short term.
I could also swipe my phone, see the VIX is 62, and know that. :happy
Lol, yes that's true too...but forums not named bogleheads might be able to tell you how to make money with that volatility. :happy

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Ketawa » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:03 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:42 am
MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am
Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.
Only on 3-month T-bills at the moment (-.04%).

I still don't see the point in why an individual investor would buy bonds at negative yields when there are still positive yields to be had from other instruments (e.g. high-yield savings accounts).
The only good reason I see would be simplicity. My fixed income is all in the G Fund and some FDIC insured prepaid accounts earning 5%+ with limited max balances. I expect the G Fund rate to fall next month from its current 1.25%. At that rate, I'm more willing to spend some time squeezing extra yield from my fixed income allocation.

I opened a Special 17-Month Share Certificate at NFCU with APY 2.25% with $50. It's in a taxable account and allows additions throughout its term up to $75K. I'll be shifting some of my fixed income allocation (majority G Fund) to the CD as time goes on, when I finish maxing out my TSP and an expected bonus comes in this year.

NFCU also has a similar Special 37-Month IRA/ESA Certificate with APY 3.00% and max balance of $150K. It has to be held in an IRA or ESA.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by seychellois_lib » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am

With regard to energy production. I am sitting in my living room watching windmills spinning in the hills near my home. It occured to me those windmills are going to spin without much babysitting. Understand there is some level of routine ops. and maint. but I wonder what that level is vs a typical power plant/peaker plant in terms of manhours per megawatt? Same with regard to solar. I hear a lot about overall cost per MW but not so much about the manpower required to maintain ops.

I wonder if we come out of this with a greater appreciation for alternative energy with respect to lower touch labor requirements? The logistics requirements also seem to be substantially lower given the fact I do not have to maintain a fuel supply chain which is pretty substantial: Ships, pipelines, refineries, mines, trains, etc.I understand we are not yet at a point where alternative power sources are reliable 24/7 , however does the current situation auger well for alternative power investment to include systems to improve 24/7 reliability (batteries, pumped hydoo, etc.)?

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am

MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am
Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.

All this CV spending does come at a cost.
What cost?

Lots of deficit spending usually increases rates, mainly from a fear of inflation but also some boost in real growth.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MisterMister » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:36 am

Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am
MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am
Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.

All this CV spending does come at a cost.
What cost?

Lots of deficit spending usually increases rates, mainly from a fear of inflation but also some boost in real growth.
Makes sense normally, we’ll see how it plays out. Government debt burden was already a very substantial relative to GDP before this and the GDP is shrinking this year. So much for real growth for a while.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:37 pm

MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:36 am
Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am
MisterMister wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am
Well I knew it would come. Negative rates happening on short term treasuries.

All this CV spending does come at a cost.
What cost?

Lots of deficit spending usually increases rates, mainly from a fear of inflation but also some boost in real growth.
Makes sense normally, we’ll see how it plays out. Government debt burden was already a very substantial relative to GDP before this and the GDP is shrinking this year. So much for real growth for a while.
At current real interest rates, govt debt costs are not very high. TIPS are negative out to 30 years. If you can borrow at negative rates, you don't need much of a return to see positive benefits.

The boost in real growth would be compared to no CV spending.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Mako » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:49 pm

Ketawa wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:03 am
The only good reason I see would be simplicity. My fixed income is all in the G Fund and some FDIC insured prepaid accounts earning 5%+ with limited max balances. I expect the G Fund rate to fall next month from its current 1.25%. At that rate, I'm more willing to spend some time squeezing extra yield from my fixed income allocation.

I opened a Special 17-Month Share Certificate at NFCU with APY 2.25% with $50. It's in a taxable account and allows additions throughout its term up to $75K. I'll be shifting some of my fixed income allocation (majority G Fund) to the CD as time goes on, when I finish maxing out my TSP and an expected bonus comes in this year.

NFCU also has a similar Special 37-Month IRA/ESA Certificate with APY 3.00% and max balance of $150K. It has to be held in an IRA or ESA.
I'm curious where the G fund rate goes too, but also because that is the loan rate. I'd have to at least consider taking a $50k loan at <1%. I imagine I can find better use for that money.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:37 pm

I removed some off-topic posts related to hospital bed availability. Also, a few posts discussing cornanvirus.

General comments go here: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MnD » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:49 pm

Mako wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:49 pm
Ketawa wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:03 am
The only good reason I see would be simplicity. My fixed income is all in the G Fund and some FDIC insured prepaid accounts earning 5%+ with limited max balances. I expect the G Fund rate to fall next month from its current 1.25%. At that rate, I'm more willing to spend some time squeezing extra yield from my fixed income allocation.

I opened a Special 17-Month Share Certificate at NFCU with APY 2.25% with $50. It's in a taxable account and allows additions throughout its term up to $75K. I'll be shifting some of my fixed income allocation (majority G Fund) to the CD as time goes on, when I finish maxing out my TSP and an expected bonus comes in this year.

NFCU also has a similar Special 37-Month IRA/ESA Certificate with APY 3.00% and max balance of $150K. It has to be held in an IRA or ESA.
I'm curious where the G fund rate goes too, but also because that is the loan rate. I'd have to at least consider taking a $50k loan at <1%. I imagine I can find better use for that money.
The G fund yield is set by the weighted market yield of 136 treasury securities all of which have 4 or more years to maturity on the last day of the prior month. The weighted maturity is very close to 10 years (I think it's 11.x years if I recall).
If the 10-year yield closes on 3/31/20 at today's quoted yield of 0.856%, the G fund yield for April will be very close to that.
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