Coronavirus and the market

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Index Fan
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Index Fan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 pm

When 'Stay The Course' is scorned on this board, you know things are hysterical.

It's fascinating to watch all of this.
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F150HD
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm

60 Minutes tonight:

Coronavirus and the economy: Best and worst case scenarios from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari...the former Treasury official who was in charge of the $700 billion government response to the 2008 financial crisis tells 60 Minutes what tools the Federal Reserve can use to combat the economic stress being caused by COVID-19.

Image

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-and-economy-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-60-minutes-2020-03-22/

MMMsentMe
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MMMsentMe » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 pm

Firesale! Thank you for cheaper stocks.

Stormbringer
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stormbringer » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm

What did "stay the course" look like in the Great Depression for a balance portfolio?
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columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:44 pm

Stormbringer wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm
What did "stay the course" look like in the Great Depression for a balance portfolio?
Take a look at Wellington and the Dodge & Cox balanced fund histories.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by veggivet » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:46 pm

JHU ALmuni wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:22 pm
This is a disaster the market is ~40% down from ATH it took years to get here and only few weeks to collapse. Maybe staying the course isn't that ideal after all. Yes, the market will come back up but in the mean time this devastating.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:27 pm

MMMsentMe wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 pm
Firesale! Thank you for cheaper stocks.
Burnt items are usually cheaper than undamaged ones.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by sambb » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm

stay the course doesnt always work - japan in the 1990s. Sometimes it is better to sell and lower your risk. But of course getting in at a low price is always good. Stay the course when the most populated country is shut down and there is an impending pandemic is probably not a good idea (feb). But selling now is far more controversial. Stay the course, on the other hand, is great for those that dont mind the losses, and dont look at the risks of black swans. good luck to all, and stay healthy.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Valueinvestor2 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:38 pm
Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm

I think the boglehead religion does a lot of good for most people. Unfortunately a flaw is not understanding how to value businesses (hence why it works for so many people because they don’t need to understand this with the BH philosophy). But... the reality is that the markets are made up of businesses that will be mispriced due to to market inefficiencies. This works both ways. Unfortunately for those heavily invested in equities have seen a 30% fall from egregious overvaluations.
So you think ex-US developed and emerging markets, even after a relatively flat decade return-wise (yes, someone pointed out that if you tweak the timing a bit, it's more like 2% annualized, so no not quite totally flat, but come on) were egregiously overvalued?
I am speaking about US markets. Yes they were overvalued and still are as I write. I have a feeling we will be approaching fair value in the next week or two.

At this point, people should be buying into stocks more than fixed income which apparently is an insane idea as evidence by the posts on this forum.

Buy low sell high. It’s not that hard. Just math.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Noobvestor » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:33 pm

Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:38 pm
Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm

I think the boglehead religion does a lot of good for most people. Unfortunately a flaw is not understanding how to value businesses (hence why it works for so many people because they don’t need to understand this with the BH philosophy). But... the reality is that the markets are made up of businesses that will be mispriced due to to market inefficiencies. This works both ways. Unfortunately for those heavily invested in equities have seen a 30% fall from egregious overvaluations.
So you think ex-US developed and emerging markets, even after a relatively flat decade return-wise (yes, someone pointed out that if you tweak the timing a bit, it's more like 2% annualized, so no not quite totally flat, but come on) were egregiously overvalued?
I am speaking about US markets. Yes they were overvalued and still are as I write. I have a feeling we will be approaching fair value in the next week or two.
I don't understand the initial point (my bold) if you're just talking about US markets. The global market is down, much of it more than US. If you mean the US was overvalued, and still is, then are global markets a better choice? If not, then what are you trying to say?

I'm not asking for myself (staying the course over here) but I do want to point out why these sweeping generalizations are problematic. I probed your initial assertion, and now I'm not sure what you meant in the first place. So again: what was or is your point?
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:34 pm

Asian markets down sharply
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... es-2118190

"Asian markets took sharp tumbles across the board Monday morning as the number of COVID-19 cases rose sharply around the world over the weekend."

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:27 pm
MMMsentMe wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 pm
Firesale! Thank you for cheaper stocks.
Burnt items are usually cheaper than undamaged ones.
Yep. There's a reason that yesterday's bread is 50% off today.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by epilnk » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 am

Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a portfolio review every spring to determine whether to adjust course.

By 2006 it became clear that the housing bubble was going to create a lot of collateral damage when it popped. So we adjusted accordingly. Not optimally - I had no crystal ball - but enough that 2008 did little harm, and by the time it was well in the rearview mirror we came out ahead of where we would have been with no downturn.

The last few years have been unusual. I can’t remember the last time I bought equities - for years all new contributions have had to go to bonds just to keep our asset allocation in balance. But the yield curve inverted last summer. That is a signal I consider actionable, so I adjusted accordingly. I didn’t try to time the market - in fact the market continued on a tear for another 6 months. But moved to a course I am comfortable with, so I’m comfortable staying the course. I’ll be buying more equities when the dust settles. No hurry, and no need to find the bottom.

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ofcmetz
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:31 am

deanmoriarty wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:26 pm
This is just insane. I have been staying the course so far on a 70/30 portfolio but I am almost reaching the point where I can’t take it anymore.

The news is getting worse and worse by the hour, NYC is going to get massively worse before it gets better and soon all the other states will follow, and all I can hear is the parroting “the market has already priced all this in, the market expects all this already!”, and yet this is always followed by a new evening of futures dropping and a subsequent 10% daily decrease during trading hours.

The “market” has not priced in anything yet. Every day, as the US situation becomes closer and closer to Italy and China, more investors will freak out and liquidate their investments. Most people have not priced in the fact that our growing infection curve is on the exact same trajectory of the other devastated countries. They haven’t. And it’s insane, this is perhaps the only time in history where we have a clear window into the 4 weeks future in how this epidemic will develop, and the fact that the market keeps going down despite the curve progressing as expected means that the market has not priced that in.

In times like these the blind faith of this community is more akin to a religious cult than a rational investment group.

I really hope 5 years from now I’ll be reading again this post and laugh at it :(
I'm curious, are you retired and living off your investments? Are you an accumulator still who will keep your job? Or maybe you are worried about losing your job? How old are you? Have you invested through other crashes? (although, I'll admit this situation seems "novel").

I'm not sure what blind faith you are referring too. Stocks have always been risky. They have always been susceptible to huge moves up and down. Money that we need in the next few years for purchases and expenses should never be invested in stocks unless you are someone of immense wealth. I was also 70/30 when this started and have lost close to 200 thousand in value, but still own the same shares as I did before. I tend to buy in more though crashes because I'm usually investing more conservative than I actually need to.

The buy and hold strategy may not be perfect, but it has been proven to beat market timing again and again. Bogleheads never recommended putting all of your money into the stock market. In fact, a common strategy has been to put your age in fixed income or something like that. We have our fixed income and emergency funds to get us through periods like this crash.

I see no reason to sell unless you had money invested in stocks that never should have been invested in them in the first place or your job situation is likely to change unexpectedly.

What happens to all those who sell near the bottom when the news suddenly turns better? They will lose their butts like those in 2008 2009 did because it's never easy when to time getting back in. The news seems to be continually worse, but that won't always be the case.

My other question is for those who sold at the top. At what point do you get back in?
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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ofcmetz
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:35 am

Index Fan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 pm
When 'Stay The Course' is scorned on this board, you know things are hysterical.

It's fascinating to watch all of this.
I couldn't agree more. I really do all the market timers come out ahead, but I know I don't have the stomach for jumping in and out like that.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:45 am

sambb wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm
stay the course doesnt always work - japan in the 1990s. Sometimes it is better to sell and lower your risk. But of course getting in at a low price is always good. Stay the course when the most populated country is shut down and there is an impending pandemic is probably not a good idea (feb). But selling now is far more controversial. Stay the course, on the other hand, is great for those that dont mind the losses, and dont look at the risks of black swans. good luck to all, and stay healthy.
Who doesn't mind the loses? :confused

Does selling now lower your risk? Maybe it just locks in your losses? Or maybe it increases the risk that you won't get back in at the right time and therefore never meet your retirement goals?

Many who stay the course have planned on the possibility of stocks dropping by dramatic amounts and staying that way for years. They have paid their houses off, insured themselves, built up emergency funds, have lots in fixed income to live off of during the recessions, etc. They realize that throughout all modern investing history that market timing is a losers game in the long run.

We are in for a tough year. Stocks maybe in for a tough time longer than a year or more. None of this means that market timing will suddenly start beating a buy and hold fixed asset allocation based on our risk tolerance, wealth, and other individual circumstances.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:48 am

epilnk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 am
Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a portfolio review every spring to determine whether to adjust course.

By 2006 it became clear that the housing bubble was going to create a lot of collateral damage when it popped. So we adjusted accordingly. Not optimally - I had no crystal ball - but enough that 2008 did little harm, and by the time it was well in the rearview mirror we came out ahead of where we would have been with no downturn.

The last few years have been unusual. I can’t remember the last time I bought equities - for years all new contributions have had to go to bonds just to keep our asset allocation in balance. But the yield curve inverted last summer. That is a signal I consider actionable, so I adjusted accordingly. I didn’t try to time the market - in fact the market continued on a tear for another 6 months. But moved to a course I am comfortable with, so I’m comfortable staying the course. I’ll be buying more equities when the dust settles. No hurry, and no need to find the bottom.
Good post. I understand this more than just jumping in and out of the market in total as some recent posts seem to suggest.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht » Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:39 am

ofcmetz wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:45 am
Who doesn't mind the loses? :confused

Does selling now lower your risk? Maybe it just locks in your losses? Or maybe it increases the risk that you won't get back in at the right time and therefore never meet your retirement goals?
Both staying in and selling has risk. The risk of selling is you miss the eventual market growth. The risk of staying is you lose the time until the market recovers.

Say we have $1M and see a 50% drop and it takes 10 years to recover to highs (including dividends).

A seller that magically sold at peak and went to cash for 10 years missed 10 years worth of gains.

A holder had to wait 10 years for their portfolio to recover back to $1M.

Either way you missed 10 years worth of gains and are 10 years behind in terms of inflation.

Now most times the timeframe is less than 10 years and you don’t sell at peak.

But once in a lifetime you end up with 1929 or the Nikkei...my portfolio is big enough that missing 50% gains would be a real bummer for my kids but it’s not so big that a 80% event with a 10 year recovery would leave me enough to retire on time...and no certainty that I would have a job in those 10 years.

Folks in their mid 50s looking at a mid 60s retirement probably are early in their glide path to a more conservative AA and don’t have 5+ years expenses saved since they are still accumulating.

Anyone in that boat needs to understand that the normal odds of a successful transition don’t apply...the odds of a two negative financial events (crash + career loss in their 50s) occurring at the same time are MUCH higher today than whenever they originally set up their IPS.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by keelerjr12 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:45 am

epilnk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 am
Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a portfolio review every spring to determine whether to adjust course.

By 2006 it became clear that the housing bubble was going to create a lot of collateral damage when it popped. So we adjusted accordingly. Not optimally - I had no crystal ball - but enough that 2008 did little harm, and by the time it was well in the rearview mirror we came out ahead of where we would have been with no downturn.

The last few years have been unusual. I can’t remember the last time I bought equities - for years all new contributions have had to go to bonds just to keep our asset allocation in balance. But the yield curve inverted last summer. That is a signal I consider actionable, so I adjusted accordingly. I didn’t try to time the market - in fact the market continued on a tear for another 6 months. But moved to a course I am comfortable with, so I’m comfortable staying the course. I’ll be buying more equities when the dust settles. No hurry, and no need to find the bottom.

Exactly. “Stay the course” right off the end of the cliff. Doesn’t make sense.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by DB2 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 am

epilnk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 am
Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a portfolio review every spring to determine whether to adjust course.

By 2006 it became clear that the housing bubble was going to create a lot of collateral damage when it popped. So we adjusted accordingly. Not optimally - I had no crystal ball - but enough that 2008 did little harm, and by the time it was well in the rearview mirror we came out ahead of where we would have been with no downturn.

The last few years have been unusual. I can’t remember the last time I bought equities - for years all new contributions have had to go to bonds just to keep our asset allocation in balance. But the yield curve inverted last summer. That is a signal I consider actionable, so I adjusted accordingly. I didn’t try to time the market - in fact the market continued on a tear for another 6 months. But moved to a course I am comfortable with, so I’m comfortable staying the course. I’ll be buying more equities when the dust settles. No hurry, and no need to find the bottom.
Good thoughts.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MnD » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:52 am

Idle speculation alert.....
Monday opens are going to be rough for a few weeks due to investors both big and small ruminating over the weekend and some percentage convincing themselves to sell at the open to "save themselves". If you've mentally throw in the towel on Saturday afternoon you aren't going to wait and see. If today we see a significant recovery by close from the low, I'll take that as a good sign that greed is starting to get a foothold on fear.

Real economy anecdotals:
Spoke to several people this week whose businesses are booming that you probably wouldn't guess.
Auto loan refinance broker, paint store owner, on-line home redesign technical assistance and sales rep (home office stuff sales are off the charts).
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by epilnk » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:15 pm

ofcmetz wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:31 am

My other question is for those who sold at the top. At what point do you get back in?
For me personally it will be some time after stock market movements stop being major daily headlines.

rerod
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Worldometers

Post by rerod » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm

Hello folks.

As far as coronavirus statistic sites go, is worldometers the most accurate and up to date?

And would it be fair to assume the market will dip lower until the number of cases level off? Or would you guess the market might start to settle out and improve before that, when the chart curve begins to level off?

Thanks

sambb
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by sambb » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:30 pm

corporations are starting to discuss layoffs, and commercial real estate mortgage defaults.
If country stays closed, cannot keep paying rent, salaries.
if it takes 6-8 weeks of closure (or longer, as once you open, you can just have another outbreak) it will be tough
If we become like Italy, where healthcare is overrun (NYC for example) then also thats bad
Lastly, if spring breakers and others continue to congregate, then you cant stop the virus
No matter what, doesnt look good for markets anytime soon. Maybe in 2 weeks we will know more

Thank goodness for those that warned here about the virus when we were at 29k. I thank you for your guidance!

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:31 pm

Once / if we get a Covid vaccine:


Will anti-vaxxers refuse to get the Covid vaccine or have their kids get it?

Or will this enact stricter vaccination laws for schools that roll-back the anti-vaxx movement?
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Re: Worldometers

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:47 pm

rerod wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm
Hello folks.

As far as coronavirus statistic sites go, is worldometers the most accurate and up to date?

And would it be fair to assume the market will dip lower until the number of cases level off? Or would you guess the market might start to settle out and improve before that, when the chart curve begins to level off?

Thanks
I have no idea if my post will survive the moderators here, but, I'm using that site to specifically track new coronavirus cases in, what I think, are 3 key states. It's been mentioned that published numbers are 'not all that accurate' because of lack of testing, though. That may be - but, it's what we have. YMMV.

Disclosure: I've been nibbling (25 share lots) at VOO and some individual companies with the market fall.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by calmaniac » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone in the U.S. will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death toll* doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.

*Corrected from original posting; thanks willthrill81.
Last edited by calmaniac on Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by columbia » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:09 pm

calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death rate doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.
Thanks for posting these thoughts.

Some here still don’t seem to be grokking the situation.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:55 pm

calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death rate doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.
Thanks for your thoughts. I believe you meant to say death toll, not death rate.

I agree that we're likely to see things get worse in the markets before they get better. I don't believe that a -33% stock decline is enough to account for all that's likely to happen.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:58 pm

Jebediah wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:04 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:23 pm
Liquidate wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:12 pm
Reading that all travel from major companies are being suspended across the board which i don't blame them. I just realized though that the Summer Olympics in Japan is this year...
I'll be surprised if the Olympics are still held. But if they aren't, think of the billions that would have been completely wasted in preparation.
I'll bet you $1 million the Olympics will happen. It's overwhelmingly likely this is seasonal and will have faded by then.
I'll send you the wiring information via PM. (Oh wait...I didn't agree to it. Darn, an easy million lost! :oops: )

"2020 Tokyo Olympics will be postponed because of Coronavirus pandemic, IOC member says"

Think of how much this will cost Tokyo.

Surely this will have some kind of impact on the Japanese market due to the billions in revenue that they were counting on.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Pawpatrol
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Pawpatrol » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:21 am

Index Fan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 pm
When 'Stay The Course' is scorned on this board, you know things are hysterical.

It's fascinating to watch all of this.
This. We are close to peak hysteria at least as it pertains to the market. I have heard from 3 different people in the last few days about buying sp500 naked puts despite never buying options before. Stay the course and coming from a physician here.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by natl_blvd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:46 am

I am in medicine on the front lines in a hard hit state.

How do you all feel the market will react when care starts to be rationed? without debating if this will happen, assume that it does. Would this clearly and definitevely move the market significantly further down?

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willthrill81
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:55 am

natl_blvd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:46 am
I am in medicine on the front lines in a hard hit state.

How do you all feel the market will react when care starts to be rationed? without debating if this will happen, assume that it does. Would this clearly and definitevely move the market significantly further down?
Thank you for your work.

I have a hard time believing that current market prices take into account rationed healthcare, which will certainly result in many deaths, not all of which will be directly caused by the Coronavirus. The current spike makes very little sense to me.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

frugaltigris
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by frugaltigris » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am

natl_blvd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:46 am
I am in medicine on the front lines in a hard hit state.

How do you all feel the market will react when care starts to be rationed? without debating if this will happen, assume that it does. Would this clearly and definitevely move the market significantly further down?
I am grateful for your service. Rationing of care might happen soon in some states. Will this market care? I don't know. Given the extent of bounce today, I am doubtful it will care.

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willthrill81
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:08 am

frugaltigris wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
natl_blvd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:46 am
I am in medicine on the front lines in a hard hit state.

How do you all feel the market will react when care starts to be rationed? without debating if this will happen, assume that it does. Would this clearly and definitevely move the market significantly further down?
I am grateful for your service. Rationing of care might happen soon in some states. Will this market care? I don't know. Given the extent of bounce today, I am doubtful it will care.
The market might care to the extent that consumers absolutely freak out with all of the deaths and continue their decline in spending and/or extend the length of this cessation of spending.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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tennisplyr
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by tennisplyr » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:15 am

It's funny how quickly the virus has overtaken the stock market as the "worry du jour"
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Flyer24 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:00 pm

A political post has been deleted along with several posts that quoted it. Please stay on topic. This thread is about the market.

goblue100
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by goblue100 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:03 pm

APX32 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:14 pm

It’s amazing to me, it’s almost as if the phrase “stay the course” has been permanently implanted into some people’s heads and gets blindly repeated over and over, in complete contradiction to the realities confronting us.

I have no doubt that if equities and stock markets existed during Black Death, the most devastating plague in the history of humanity, there’d be Bogleheads telling us to stay the course.
Stay the course is really the whole point of Bogleheads, so I don't know why this is a shock to you. People have been jumping in and out of the market since its inception. Studies and History tells us they are terrible at the timing and earn much less than the underlying asset. This includes pandemics, unfortunately.

https://rogermontgomery.com/why-do-inve ... invest-in/
Over the very long term, it has been shown that equities provide the highest return for investors, and yet most investors are not reaping the full benefit of these returns. Intuitively investors know the principles of buying low and selling high, however research confirms that most investors fail to execute on this basic premise – consistently underperforming the funds they invest in.
https://www.thebalance.com/why-average- ... ns-2388519
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

Seasonal
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:32 pm

tennisplyr wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:15 am
It's funny how quickly the virus has overtaken the stock market as the "worry du jour"
At the moment, the market is largely a function of the virus.

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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm

calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone in the U.S. will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death toll* doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.

*Corrected from original posting; thanks willthrill81.
Thank you.

My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.

Some people won't believe the hurricane is so bad, until it rips the roof off their home or throws a tree through their front window.

Rosencrantz1
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Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:47 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm
calmaniac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm
Flextruck wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
[Merged into the ongoing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

With social media platforms driving fear and panic into every corner of every room in the world, I'm concerned that the stock markets are forever changed following this latest epidemic.

We've had numerous super bugs since 2000, but none were fueled by current social media platforms. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the future. Are novel viruses the new norm?? Novel viruses create fear, panic and the great unknown, all recipes for destroying the markets and destroying people's wealth.

Real estate, while certainly not immune to these epidemics, at least gives an investor a real and tangible investment they can own. I'm just fearful that these bugs could be a semi regular occurrence moving forward and that's a scary situation.
I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). That said, I find the current situation wholly different from any I've seen in my life. This is not some media-driven hype. Flextruck, you are correct that there are still many unknowns, but unlike SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, etc., at this point it seems very likely that by the end of this pandemic, everyone in the U.S. will know someone who died from COVID-19. This is not panic, that is our new shared reality. When the death toll* doubles every 2-3 days it will not take long for the virus to overwhelm the medical care system, particularly in large cities, like London and New York. This is math.

This dislocation will continue to wreak havoc on the markets until we can see a stable path ahead.

*Corrected from original posting; thanks willthrill81.
Thank you.

My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. One works in a city-run clinic, the other is a chairman of a dept at a medical school. They ALL have been warning me of the dangers of this novel coronavirus. They are not panicking. They are sober in their assessment of what is coming. And it is not good. Americans are still in denial, and I think the market is too.

Some people won't believe the hurricane is so bad, until it rips the roof off their home or throws a tree through their front window.
You may be right about the market... but, I'd disagree about Americans, in general, being in denial. At least, not with the media coverage we have. I have family in several different states - including the hardest hit states - and, my sense from them is, generally speaking, Americans are taking it very seriously. I see those spring break photos and that certainly isn't encouraging... so, I suppose there's that. :|

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watchnerd
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm

tennisplyr wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:15 am
It's funny how quickly the virus has overtaken the stock market as the "worry du jour"
Well, if you live someplace with Stay at Home / Lockdown orders, it impacts everything.

I'm sure you'll find out soon. ;)
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:59 pm

Midnight tonight for my locale
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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F150HD
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:16 pm

Really Good Day
Dow industrials finish up over 11%, biggest percentage gain since 1933
...wonder how many moved out of the market on Monday :oops:

Hoping we're through the fog.

brianH
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by brianH » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm

brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.
But what has changed so favorably in that regard since Friday?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

brianH
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by brianH » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm
brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.
But what has changed so favorably in that regard since Friday?
Probably a combination of 'doom fatigue' (i.e. things stop being scary the more you hear about them) and the somewhat straight talk by Trump and Cuomo that restarting the economy is coming soon.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stinky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:34 pm

brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm
brianH wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
I'm hoping today is a sign of things to come: that the market has gotten past the doom+gloom fear and realized that the country will be back to work soon. Many will get the virus, most will recover, some will die, but life and the economy moves on.
But what has changed so favorably in that regard since Friday?
Probably a combination of 'doom fatigue' (i.e. things stop being scary the more you hear about them) and the somewhat straight talk by Trump and Cuomo that restarting the economy is coming soon.
All of this - plus Congress moving slowly toward dumping out barrels of money.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

7eight9
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by 7eight9 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:37 pm

F150HD wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:16 pm
Really Good Day
Dow industrials finish up over 11%, biggest percentage gain since 1933
...wonder how many moved out of the market on Monday :oops:

Hoping we're through the fog.
I'm wondering how many saw today as a good opportunity to sell.

Buy the Dip is so last decade. Sell the Rally is the new slogan du jour. :happy
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:50 pm

columbia wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:59 pm
Midnight tonight for my locale
Same.

I'm in San Antonio, TX.

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