Coronavirus and the market

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
peskypesky
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky »

skisk wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:00 pmI know that forecasting is not easy to do, but the people that do this professionally full-time should be a bit better at understanding short and long term effects of a situation than mere mortals are. Or maybe the really smart ones work for financial companies and hedge funds and are keeping quiet, and the ones that show up in interviews and TV are not the cream of the crop?
If you TRULY know what the market is going to do (and you're smart)...you don't tell ANYONE. You invest appropriately and hope no one else catches on.
User avatar
Cycle
Posts: 1770
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 7:57 pm
Location: Minneapolis

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Cycle »

APX32 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:15 am I see two issues here.

First, all these lockdowns and shutdowns are a good attempt to slow down the spread of the virus, but for how long? Whether it’s two weeks or two months from now, unless you have a cure (vaccine), then the pandemic will start all over again once you lift the restrictions, assuming we were able to slow it down in the first place.

Second, with a vaccine reportedly more than a year away, does that mean the entire world has to live under quarantine for the next 12-18 months? The alternative seems to be this herd immunity I keep hearing about, in which natural selection will do its work, but that’s too horrible to contemplate.

At this point, hard too see any way out of this except a worldwide economic depression that will take years to recover from. Sorry for the doom and gloom forecast, as we are starting a weeks-long shutdown in my state (WA), I’m having some trouble trying to come up with positive outcomes.

Unless this thing just magically disappears (like the flu season winding down as we approach warm weather), the economic/market prospects are looking grim.
I've thought about this a lot.

People deserve a ventilator and/or ecmo.

Quarantine until ventilators and PPE are available. At that point lift quarantine for low risk people. This will be many, many months, but could be accelerated with $$$.

Keep high risk people quarantined until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.

I have an infant at home and just two days into our working from home scheme i'm super exhausted. My boss thinks we are going back to the office in a week and a half. I think we are going back into the office in 2-3 months.

With how extremely contagious this virus is, it may end up going to the herd solution naturally, which will be bad for millions.

I think the market will be rough for several months; however, i don't think this is a multiple years depression scenario.
Last edited by Cycle on Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
User avatar
F150HD
Posts: 3447
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by F150HD »

“There’s actually a return to normalcy and so our plants are fully staffed,” Snee said. “What we’re hearing just out and about is that people are in the communities, our retail business is strong and the food service business is really starting to bounce back.”

Look to China and see ‘we can and will come out’ of coronavirus pandemic, Hormel CEO says in message of hope
Wed, March 18, 2020 8:23 PM EDT
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22613
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by willthrill81 »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:53 pm
skisk wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:00 pmI know that forecasting is not easy to do, but the people that do this professionally full-time should be a bit better at understanding short and long term effects of a situation than mere mortals are. Or maybe the really smart ones work for financial companies and hedge funds and are keeping quiet, and the ones that show up in interviews and TV are not the cream of the crop?
If you TRULY know what the market is going to do (and you're smart)...you don't tell ANYONE.
It wouldn't matter if you did. Nobody would believe you.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
BoomerSooner24
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:30 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by BoomerSooner24 »

protagonist wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:13 pm :sharebeer
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:41 pm
I mentioned this on the forum the day India announced the ban. It was discussed on this very thread.

One thing that sets the US apart from some other countries (especially the developing ones ) is that the US panics. Run on toilet paper etc. The doomsday scenarios and speculation from Day 1. It is a self fulfilling prophecy. If every post and every newscast is about the oncoming Depression, then people behave accordingly.

People on this forum equate caution with panic. If I say "no reason to panic, exercise caution", then I get responss almost decrying me as a virus denier. We are a country of panic and criticism, not caution and problem solving. It is very odd.

This isn't my first rodeo of public health crisis. Both from the receiving end, and from an emergency management end. And I have lived through some of these in areas of poor medical facilities.

From all of them, my lessons learnt:

- Keeping perspective (doom and gloom talk is the privilege of the first world). This virus is novel, yes. We still don't have accurate CFR rates. WHO is retracing their previous high claims. But that is the nature of every pandemic, I can't blame them. The psychology of this forum is such that there is no thread about recovery rates or upside. It is a race to the bottom. 3.4% CFR? What about 8% CFR for over 60? What about 15% CFR for over 80? Avoiding all the many publications that are revising CFR rates down.

- Keeping a positive attitude - my spouse is going to be off indefinitely. We are taking advantage of this by going for afternoon walks. Seeing the upside during a downside is critical. Sometimes impossible. But we must. Otherwise the downside will eat your brain.

- Discussing ways to mitigate spread rather than discussing the end of the world. My parents that live overseas call me every day to check in me. Because news from the US made them think the whole country is surely dying. They are both elderly. This is the 10th such crises of their lifetimes. They are not panicking, they are doing what they did to survive every previous one.

- Following instructions from health personnel to the T. 98% news is about the end of the world. 2% are PSAs on good practices. Where my parents live, 95% news is reinforcing best practices. Eat well, wash your hands, how to care for elderly in your house etc. The rest of the chatter is about other stuff.

All I see on this forum is criticism. Doctors, health officials, local and federal govts....everyone is evil, incompetent, or idiots at this point. We are fortunate enough to not have gone through many such episodes in our lives. For some it is their first. That makes us the rookies of the pandemic world, akin to rookies in the investing world. The seasoned folks say "exercise caution, this too shall pass, expect such episodes all your life". The novice ones say "is this the end? Should I sell everything and move to the mountains?"

I certainly believe that a society's strength is it's people. How we behave in rough times. Administrations, officials etc are fluid.


Unladen Swallow....

Thank you for a very articulate and sane post. Amidst so much noise, yours was signal. I agree with all of the above.
Couldn’t agree more. Appreciate this insight. As someone staying the course who started investing in 2010 and has never experienced what we are going through now with these stomach-churning drops and uncertainty of what tomorrow holds, this was great to read. Thanks for the reminder and encouragement. Very much lacking on this forum these days.
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 1186
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Stef »

ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
RayKeynes
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by RayKeynes »

Stef wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 am ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
peskypesky
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by peskypesky »

RayKeynes wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am
Stef wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 am ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
yep
fortyofforty
Posts: 2083
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fortyofforty »

peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
RayKeynes wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am
Stef wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 am ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Seasonal
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal »

fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 am
peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
RayKeynes wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am
Stef wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 am ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Had enough seems an odd way of putting "China reported no new domestic coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak surfaced".
fortyofforty
Posts: 2083
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fortyofforty »

Seasonal wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:47 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 am
peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
RayKeynes wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am
Stef wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 am ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 66.en.html
Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Had enough seems an odd way of putting "China reported no new domestic coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak surfaced".
China is putting people back to work, opening factories, and getting life back to normal. China has had enough of the economic disruption.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1590
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:56 am
Seasonal wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:47 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 am
peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
RayKeynes wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am

Nobody cares. This is going to be short-lived.
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Had enough seems an odd way of putting "China reported no new domestic coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak surfaced".
China is putting people back to work, opening factories, and getting life back to normal. China has had enough of the economic disruption.
No. They contained the outbreak and then slowly are easing restrictions and restarting their market. They didn’t capitulate...they won the first round.
fortyofforty
Posts: 2083
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fortyofforty »

nigel_ht wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:25 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:56 am
Seasonal wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:47 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 am
peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Had enough seems an odd way of putting "China reported no new domestic coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak surfaced".
China is putting people back to work, opening factories, and getting life back to normal. China has had enough of the economic disruption.
No. They contained the outbreak and then slowly are easing restrictions and restarting their market. They didn’t capitulate...they won the first round.
China is reacting as China reacts. China is behaving as China behaves. I won't go further down that road, since the mods don't like it.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1590
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

Thesaints wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:18 pm If we can find a silver lining in all this, it will be finally sufficient to refer to the first page of this thread anyone daring to express doubts on the benefits of cost averaging.
Lol, now that’s optimistic.

Re-reading the first page I hope the person asking whether to lump sum or dca did a dca. Likewise on the second page someone wanted to pull out and reinvest later. For their own peace of mind I hope they followed their own analysis of the situation and got out.

Hindsight is hindsight but while a some posters caught on early on the economic and market impact of China’s action the general boglehead consensus was wrong.

You’ll never get the loudest voices here to accept that moving to a conservative AA is no more and no less market timing than “buying the dip” that they cheer on.

Or that doing a DCA for a large sum isn’t prudent in some cases.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68639
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:32 am China is reacting as China reacts. China is behaving as China behaves. I won't go further down that road, since the mods don't like it.
Thanks.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Seasonal
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal »

Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits surged last week to a two-year high as the coronavirus pandemic forced employers to start laying off workers.

Jobless claims rose by 70,000 to 281,000 in the week ended March 14, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday.
Futures recover a bit, perhaps this is better than anticipated, perhaps the market thinks it will prod governmental action favorable to the market/economy, perhaps just random noise.

ETA: this is the tip of the iceberg - it doesn't reflect what's happening in the past few days. Next report is likely to be much much worse.
Last edited by Seasonal on Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1590
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by nigel_ht »

Vihoo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:36 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:56 am
Seasonal wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:47 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 am
peskypesky wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am
yep
This will continue for as long as we want it to continue. China seems to have had enough.
Had enough seems an odd way of putting "China reported no new domestic coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak surfaced".
China is putting people back to work, opening factories, and getting life back to normal. China has had enough of the economic disruption.
Until antigenic shift happens and it’s the second/worse wave. Then they have to continue a pulse like suppression measure until the vaccine can be deployed.
If that happens then what is a possible/likely recession becomes certainty and not a mild one as folks are hoping.

That would really suck for anyone in their 50s who are still early in their glide path to transition to a lower risk AA.

On the plus side, the shift could be to a more manageable 2nd wave that IS more flu like.
fortyofforty
Posts: 2083
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fortyofforty »

"The sillier the market's behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business-like investor." Warren Buffett
airshow
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2014 2:54 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by airshow »

based on Futures this morning, it looks like just another ho-hum +/- 5% day
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

[Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by theta »

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

Google “chloroquine covid19” for some positive news about covid19. Too early to say it’s definitely a cure, but it looks very promising.

That said, how should we invest this news?

(To be clear, I’ve stayed the course throughout this thing, but I do have a little play money that might be invested here.)
Last edited by theta on Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
chevca
Posts: 3473
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:22 am

Re: Covid 19 cure - how to invest

Post by chevca »

It would be a bet... and probably a short lived bet. I'll pass.
User avatar
RootSki
Posts: 516
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:52 am

Re: Covid 19 cure - how to invest

Post by RootSki »

Sounds more like speculation than investing. :oops:
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 10524
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Covid 19 cure - how to invest

Post by JoMoney »

Chloroquine is a cheap anti-malaria drug that has been on the market for a long time and has generics available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine
"It is available as a generic medication. The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04. In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose"
Not really a "cure", but some have reported that it aids in a faster recovery.
Since it has generics and is cheap, I suspect not much of a unique "investment" opportunity here.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Re: Covid 19 cure - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by theta »

Re: Jomoney,

Yes, chloroquine is cheap and already available. This should mean that an economic recovery could occur more quickly than would otherwise be expected.

Based on that thesis, are there industries which will bounce back first?
fortyofforty
Posts: 2083
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fortyofforty »

From Tweedy, Browne:
Looking back over the last several decades, the stock market has endured some pretty grim news, and persevered and prospered. One only has to think back to the meltdown in both currencies and equities in the Far Eastern markets of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand in 1997, losing on average roughly 50% of their value. This was followed by the Russian bond default and the subsequent failure of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, which nearly brought the entire market to its knees. In 1999, there was the fear associated with a potential massive systems failure resulting from the digital concerns associated with the Year 2000 (Y2K). In 2000, we, of course, had the bursting of the technology bubble and the presidential “hanging chad” election crisis, followed by the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the collapse of Enron in 2001. In 2008, we had the subprime credit crisis, which led to the failure of some of our iconic financial institutions and nearly drove the country into a full scale depression. As Rosanna Rosannadanna (Gilda Radner) used to say on Saturday Night Live, “it’s always something.” And yet for the last 25 year period through year-end 2019, the MSCI World Index produced a cumulative, albeit lumpy, return of roughly 494%.
They've been in this business for a hundred years, and have a long-term perspective.
CT-Scott
Posts: 464
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:01 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CT-Scott »

It's not often that I've had good news to report, and I'm still being cautious about how excited I should get about this (the study sample size is pretty small), but maybe, just maybe, a "cure" could be closer than previously hoped...

Old malaria drug hydroxychloroquine may help cure coronavirus: study
https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malar ... rus-study/

I wonder if the markets will jump on this news, or be more cautious in their optimism.
User avatar
tadamsmar
Posts: 9164
Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by tadamsmar »

Biggest jobless claims jump (33%) since 1992:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/economy/ ... index.html

It's finally showing up in weekly jobless claims.
chevca
Posts: 3473
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:22 am

Re: Covid 19 cure - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by chevca »

Quite a thesis...
User avatar
StormShadow
Posts: 978
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:20 pm

Re: Covid 19 cure - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by StormShadow »

theta wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:38 am Google “chloroquine covid19” for some positive news about covid19. Too early to say it’s definitely a cure, but it looks very promising.

That said, how should we invest this news?

(To be clear, I’ve stayed the course throughout this thing, but I do have a little play money that might be invested here.)
Well, I hope it does work. But its way too early to say.

In any event, most Bogleheads are going to recommend against speculating in individual stocks. Venturing into individual pharma stocks is particularly risky.
CT-Scott
Posts: 464
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:01 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CT-Scott »

Piggybacking on my last post, here's an article that mentions the drug I previously mentioned, as well as several other drugs that have been experimented with...

Flu, anti-malaria, arthritis and HIV medication: The promising therapies being tested on coronavirus patients around the world - but how many are the NHS trying?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

So many different companies will be hit hard, so I'm still wary of reinvesting in a "total stock market" fund in the short-term. I'm interested in the idea of gambling some money with one or more of these drug companies, but I don't have enough knowledge about them, to what degree they'd see a huge profit if their drugs were effective, etc., and I wouldn't want to gamble enough such that even if their stock took off and doubled in value, the profit off of the amount I would have invested (say $10,000) wouldn't allow me to quit my job. So I'll probably just stay on the sidelines as far as these stocks are concerned.
columbia
Posts: 3023
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

CT-Scott wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:26 am Piggybacking on my last post, here's an article that mentions the drug I previously mentioned, as well as several other drugs that have been experimented with...

Flu, anti-malaria, arthritis and HIV medication: The promising therapies being tested on coronavirus patients around the world - but how many are the NHS trying?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

So many different companies will be hit hard, so I'm still wary of reinvesting in a "total stock market" fund in the short-term. I'm interested in the idea of gambling some money with one or more of these drug companies, but I don't have enough knowledge about them, to what degree they'd see a huge profit if their drugs were effective, etc., and I wouldn't want to gamble enough such that even if their stock took off and doubled in value, the profit off of the amount I would have invested (say $10,000) wouldn't allow me to quit my job. So I'll probably just stay on the sidelines as far as these stocks are concerned.
It’s reasonable to assume that the industry specific analysts are already on that play, if one is available.
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Re: Covid 19 cure - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by theta »

Storm shadow,

I’m not talking pharma stocks. Rather, a quick return to “normalcy”, and wondering if any companies/sectors would benefit more. For example, retail, autos, amazon???
Call_Me_Op
Posts: 8081
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:57 pm
Location: Milky Way

Re: Covid 19 cure - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by Call_Me_Op »

[Medical advice removed by admin LadyGeek]
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
HawkeyePierce
Posts: 1755
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:29 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: [Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by HawkeyePierce »

Considering almost every sector has taken a hit I think investing in broad total market funds will cover you fine once we get to the recovery.
scintillator
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:30 pm

Re: [Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by scintillator »

I think Sanofi makes Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine). I don't know who else manufactures is. Sanofi is a French company, but you can buy shares of it as an ADR through any broker. Its ticker symbol is SNY. I have no idea what percentage of their revenue comes from Plaquenil or if there is a surge in demand if they'll even be called upon to meet it (or if some other big generic producers in India or wherever will just absorb all the business). But there's an idea you can look into. The price action of the stock the past few days gives no indication that they'll be profiting from this.

Along the same lines, a study out yesterday indicated combining hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin is even more effective. Pfizer produces azithromycin. But everything I said about Sanofi above also applies to Pfizer.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22613
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: [Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by willthrill81 »

I don't know where it's produced, but China and India have been producing about 80% of our meds, and India has banned the exportation of all meds, and the last I heard was that China was considering doing the same.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Re: [Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by theta »

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68639
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged theta's thread into the on-going discussion.

Please use this thread for discussions related to investing.

General discussions can go here: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
frugaltigris
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:44 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by frugaltigris »

I have a confusion. If I have some money to invest for the time period of 20 years in a taxable account, is it more beneficial to DCA in this climate or shall I do lump sum and tax loss harvest. Thanks.
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:35 am
Thesaints wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:18 pm If we can find a silver lining in all this, it will be finally sufficient to refer to the first page of this thread anyone daring to express doubts on the benefits of cost averaging.
Lol, now that’s optimistic.

Re-reading the first page I hope the person asking whether to lump sum or dca did a dca. Likewise on the second page someone wanted to pull out and reinvest later. For their own peace of mind I hope they followed their own analysis of the situation and got out.

Hindsight is hindsight but while a some posters caught on early on the economic and market impact of China’s action the general boglehead consensus was wrong.

You’ll never get the loudest voices here to accept that moving to a conservative AA is no more and no less market timing than “buying the dip” that they cheer on.

Or that doing a DCA for a large sum isn’t prudent in some cases.
Mr.Wu
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:02 pm

Re: [Possible Covid 19 treatment] - chloroquine - how to invest

Post by Mr.Wu »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:48 am I don't know where it's produced, but China and India have been producing about 80% of our meds, and India has banned the exportation of all meds, and the last I heard was that China was considering doing the same.
FDA says 88% of active pharmaceutical ingredients are made overseas, but China only makes 14%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN20J20I
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus treatment - chloroquine

Post by theta »

User avatar
ResearchMed
Posts: 10996
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus treatment - chloroquine

Post by ResearchMed »

theta wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:08 am Treatment now approved:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoy ... 7baea8303d
It seems that what was approved was TESTING of this drug. "Treatment" of regular patients would not yet be included.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
fanmail
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus treatment - chloroquine

Post by fanmail »

ResearchMed wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:13 am
theta wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:08 am Treatment now approved:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoy ... 7baea8303d
It seems that what was approved was TESTING of this drug. "Treatment" of regular patients would not yet be included.

RM
If/when treatment is approved, we could see a limit up day. I guess that would be a good reason to stay the course so you don't miss that day.
User avatar
ResearchMed
Posts: 10996
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus treatment - chloroquine

Post by ResearchMed »

fanmail wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:14 am
ResearchMed wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:13 am
theta wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:08 am Treatment now approved:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoy ... 7baea8303d
It seems that what was approved was TESTING of this drug. "Treatment" of regular patients would not yet be included.

RM
If/when treatment is approved, we could see a limit up day. I guess that would be a good reason to stay the course so you don't miss that day.
And when treatments are shown *not* to be effective, sometimes the pharmaceutical firm stock plummets.

No guarantee either way.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
doss
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:52 am

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by doss »

I remember reading about this about a month ago on Twitter and how excited folks were. Looks like it's finally coming into play.
“ The long-term 9%-10% nominal return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes.” — calvin+hobbs
fsrph
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:54 pm
Location: Pa.

Re: Coronavirus treatment - chloroquine

Post by fsrph »

theta wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:08 am Treatment now approved:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoy ... 7baea8303d
For an excellent, detailed explanation on how chloroquine works against the virus see - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M. I'm not sure if there is a way to invest in this. These meds are available in generic and are inexpensive. Believe chloroquine and zinc was used to treat in S. Korea - https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria ... ent-2020-3.

If you want another product that shows promise look at Remdesivir by Gilead. Lots of hype but could turn out to be nothing. Proceed at your own risk.

Francis
"Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get." | Dale Carnegie
theta
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by theta »

I suspect it is technically still in testing stage, but here’s a quote,
“Normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that and it was approved very, very quickly,” Trump said. “We’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately."

The “almost immediately” gives a little wiggle room, but he also mentioned that Gov. Cuomo wants to be first in line.
Mr.Wu
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:02 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Mr.Wu »

Chloroquine has been tested and proved to be effective agains COVID19 in other countries a month ago. It should have been priced in.
Seasonal
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Seasonal »

Mr.Wu wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:30 am Chloroquine has been tested and proved to be effective agains COVID19 in other countries a month ago. It should have been priced in.
Link?

Why is it not in use in those countries?
fsrph
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:54 pm
Location: Pa.

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by fsrph »

A problem with chloroquine is going to be availability. Old med not used much today. Pharmacies had no previous reason to stock a lot of it - therefore wholesalers had no reason to have high amounts. I'm sure generic manufacturers will ramp up production but how long will that take. I predict you'll hear of a chloroquine shortage in a few days.

Francis
"Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get." | Dale Carnegie
Post Reply