Coronavirus and the market

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XM16E1
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Coronavirus and the market

Post by XM16E1 »

I've only seen one day where the market dipped, about 2%. I was waiting/hoping for a day #2 of the dip but since its gone up about 5%!! Awesome gains yes but I was hoping to buy on sale.

Am I the only one who thought there would be more instability in the market due to the corona virus and how dependent the US and rest of the world is on China's manufacturing?
fwellimort
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by fwellimort »

Markets are quite random day to day.
I wouldn't try to fit in much 'rational' thoughts to prices.

'Irrational exuberance' and all are a thing in the short term (look at stocks like Beyond Meat, etc. just last year and the bitcoin hype a year before).

Also, both China and the US dumped in quite a lot of money during the weekends. China alone already injected over 71 billion and because China is a totalitarian state, it is able to prevent the locals from selling. And the US alone injected around 95 billion in the past few days.

What the consequences are going forward who knows. Maybe we americans might experience mild hyperinflation in the near future in which inflation stays around ~5+% for a few years.
(Shrugs)

And ya, I expected also (but did not bother timing) a longer drop/stagnation due to Corona virus. Too bad I'm not good at forecasting stock market returns year to year.
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nisiprius
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by nisiprius »

1918 was the word year of the flu pandemic in the United States. Here are the annual returns of the US stock market in that time frame.

Image
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Brianmcg321
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by Brianmcg321 »

That was it. This Tesla Boom made everyone forget about the fact we are going to die soon.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I was waiting for a dip as well to get a rebalance opportunity but it never came this time around. the year is young and there may be more volatility this year. Personally, I do think we are going to have double digit returns this year but with multiple 5-6% pullbacks!
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by curmudgeon »

I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by TravelGeek »

curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:53 am I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
So then the question will be -- will the negative impact on my index fund portfolio be compensated for through great travel deals. :twisted:
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JoeRetire
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by JoeRetire »

XM16E1 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:22 pm I've only seen one day where the market dipped, about 2%. I was waiting/hoping for a day #2 of the dip but since its gone up about 5%!! Awesome gains yes but I was hoping to buy on sale.
It was a flash sale. Apparently you missed it. Maybe you'll get lucky next time.
Am I the only one who thought there would be more instability in the market due to the corona virus and how dependent the US and rest of the world is on China's manufacturing?
No, you aren't the only one.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by JoeRetire »

fwellimort wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 pm Also, both China and the US dumped in quite a lot of money during the weekends. China alone already injected over 71 billion and because China is a totalitarian state, it is able to prevent the locals from selling. And the US alone injected around 95 billion in the past few days.
Because the US isn't a totalitarian state and ... ???
What the consequences are going forward who knows. Maybe we americans might experience mild hyperinflation in the near future in which inflation stays around ~5+% for a few years.
Do you have a definition for your term "mild hyperinflation"? It seems like an oxymoron to me.
And ya, I expected also (but did not bother timing) a longer drop/stagnation due to Corona virus. Too bad I'm not good at forecasting stock market returns year to year.
Are you doing anything due to your forecasting of inflation at a much higher rate than virtually everyone else?
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Scooter57
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by Scooter57 »

The market goes up and down and financial journalists always ascribe some reason to it. But though there ARE factors that will affect stock price, it takes much longer than a day or a week or two for them to have a significant effect on stock prices.

And in the current environment, where bonds have been intentionally deprived of any significant yield to keep market prices up, the correlation between corporate success and stock prices has been dramatically weakened. If a stock does better than expected, its price rises. If stocks respond to some negative economic news and start going down, bond prices rise, rates fall, and big investors heave a sigh of relief because it means the Fed will continue suppressing rates and stocks rise.
sambb
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by sambb »

economic effects on earnings may or may not take awhile. For example, i read yesterday that hyundai shut down auto production in a few plants due to lack of parts from china. Will these types of things be a short term pause or a long term problem? We wont know for a few weeks i bet. If earnings are affected and earnings growth, then market may not tolerate. Hard to say but time will tell.
CnC
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by CnC »

I really feel that the markets are missing something, much of China has been shut down for weeks. The sheer loss of production if everything starts back up today will knock global trade down more than trumps trade war. I just do not see how we are at all time highs and going up in this time of turmoil and lost production.
blackwhisker
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by blackwhisker »

fwellimort wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 pm Markets are quite random day to day.
I wouldn't try to fit in much 'rational' thoughts to prices.

'Irrational exuberance' and all are a thing in the short term (look at stocks like Beyond Meat, etc. just last year and the bitcoin hype a year before).

Also, both China and the US dumped in quite a lot of money during the weekends. China alone already injected over 71 billion and because China is a totalitarian state, it is able to prevent the locals from selling. And the US alone injected around 95 billion in the past few days.

What the consequences are going forward who knows. Maybe we americans might experience mild hyperinflation in the near future in which inflation stays around ~5+% for a few years.
(Shrugs)

And ya, I expected also (but did not bother timing) a longer drop/stagnation due to Corona virus. Too bad I'm not good at forecasting stock market returns year to year.
Thank you for the posting fwellimort.

Can someone give me a link to news articles about "US injected ~95 billion the last few days"? I would like to read about it, but couldn't find an article. I only read in the news about china injected money.

Thanks.
Caduceus
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by Caduceus »

CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:32 am I really feel that the markets are missing something, much of China has been shut down for weeks. The sheer loss of production if everything starts back up today will knock global trade down more than trumps trade war. I just do not see how we are at all time highs and going up in this time of turmoil and lost production.
It's more complicated than that. Many things are still being produced and traded - my friends in China can still buy most of whatever they want in shops. It's not like one of those movies you see on Netflix where life comes to a standstill. Also, firms can ramp up production again if the demand is there - a lot of it is time-shifting the demand into the future. If you wanted to go on a trip to China but decided not to - you might end up going later in the year or spending your dollars flying to Australia instead. Then there are inventories. The Washington Post had an article about how the virus is actually helping to balance out China's auto dealership's massive unsold inventory of cars by stopping production. Other firms might be selling off inventory and so they'll have to rebuild them later. Then, the bane for some industries (like oil stocks) might be a boon for others (like pharmaceuticals) - so there's some balancing out there.

Stock prices tend to be leading indicators and the market's predicting that the virus is going to cause some discomfort but not a full-blown economic crisis. So far the evidence suggests the market is right - this is a virus that seems at this stage only slightly worse than the flu; it's more likely that we will never be able to contain it and we'll have to live with its presence for a long time (just like we do with thousands of other types of bugs) and once people get that, life will go on.

Of course if things like mass quarantines go on for months, the analysis might be different.
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Schlabba
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by Schlabba »

z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:22 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:45 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:42 am
CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:36 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:54 am Maybe a glimmer of hope that somewhere, some people can deal with a minor virus pandemic, which this surely is, without total panic. 6,000 people in China die each day from tobacco and pollution.
Shutting down the entire economic output for 50,000,000 people for a month is an insane economic cost. Certainly more than 1-2 Boeing planes crashing. Yet those crashed their stock.

I am not so worried about the actual death toll of this pandemic but the negative economic factors of people quarantining themselves and Holmes and avoiding public gatherings has got to be enormous.
The panic is worse than the disease and this thread is a small part of that panic.
That's a nice statement but what is that based on?
You can say the same thing about war with Iran or North Korea or global warming for that matter. But without any evidence to back it up I am not really sure what you mean.

Also I do not want to get into the merits of various wars or climate change just to keep this thread from being locked.
Understood, no need to get into it but yes, there is clear evidence that this is a minor pandemic unlikely to cause much biological harm. Relevant to investing, it is the capricious over-reactions that China has in the stock market that makes people nervous. They have in the past prevented the free travel of millions of citizens, stopped trading, banned short selling, etc. These are the things that cause markets to decline.
I wouldn't underestimate it. The Chinese are taking this outbreak very, very seriously. I also wouldn't underestimate the Chinese by saying they're taking measures and worry for no good reason.

On the topic of the market, I think too much is unknown right now. Any kind of swing in the market would be based on speculation. In a few months time when we'll get some Q1 numbers and we're going to see the impact.
Caduceus wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:08 pm The Washington Post had an article about how the virus is actually helping to balance out China's auto dealership's massive unsold inventory of cars by stopping production. Other firms might be selling off inventory and so they'll have to rebuild them later. Then, the bane for some industries (like oil stocks) might be a boon for others (like pharmaceuticals) - so there's some balancing out there.
I don't think things will simply balance out. There are millions either not working or working less efficiently. We'll probably see some of this back in GDP numbers in the future.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by willthrill81 »

XM16E1 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:22 pm I've only seen one day where the market dipped, about 2%. I was waiting/hoping for a day #2 of the dip but since its gone up about 5%!! Awesome gains yes but I was hoping to buy on sale.
There is too much randomness in the market's daily movements for 'buying on sale' to consistently work. You might get lucky on occasion, but it's a bad strategy.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by stocknoob4111 »

what i've noted is that cnbc always gives some reason why it's up or down... this time the article says "rises on hopes of a virus cure"... how exactly does cnbc know? did they poll all the buyers? lol
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by rockstar »

No idea what the economic impact will be for another quarter.

I do find it interesting that Disney is dropping after a pretty good quarter. They seem impacted. It’s one of those stocks you buy to get your kids interested in investing. I can see buying some if its drop gets ridiculous. Right now, it’s not down enough to make me excited to buy some.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by anon3838 »

blackwhisker wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:44 pm
fwellimort wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 pm Markets are quite random day to day.
I wouldn't try to fit in much 'rational' thoughts to prices.

'Irrational exuberance' and all are a thing in the short term (look at stocks like Beyond Meat, etc. just last year and the bitcoin hype a year before).

Also, both China and the US dumped in quite a lot of money during the weekends. China alone already injected over 71 billion and because China is a totalitarian state, it is able to prevent the locals from selling. And the US alone injected around 95 billion in the past few days.

What the consequences are going forward who knows. Maybe we americans might experience mild hyperinflation in the near future in which inflation stays around ~5+% for a few years.
(Shrugs)

And ya, I expected also (but did not bother timing) a longer drop/stagnation due to Corona virus. Too bad I'm not good at forecasting stock market returns year to year.
Thank you for the posting fwellimort.

Can someone give me a link to news articles about "US injected ~95 billion the last few days"? I would like to read about it, but couldn't find an article. I only read in the news about china injected money.

Thanks.
I would like to see more info on this as well. My searches didn’t find anything, but perhaps I just don’t know where to look.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by tibbitts »

curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:53 am I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
Sadly my only individual stock is a cruise line. And it's way down. Maybe they'll reduce their usual heavily discounted fares even more - just one significant price drop would make up for my losses in the stock. :-)
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

Several posts related to the coronavirus, along with conjecture on its epidemiology (how it spreads) have been removed.

Please stay on-topic, which is about the market.
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curmudgeon
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by curmudgeon »

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:28 am
curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:53 am I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
So then the question will be -- will the negative impact on my index fund portfolio be compensated for through great travel deals. :twisted:
For now, there is mostly just a lot of uncertainty. There's a certain hit from various cancelled sailing and flights; if that's all, it will just be a minor blip. Lots of people (myself included) regard cruise ships and airplanes as rather unhealthy places, but have been willing to accept the risks for the enjoyment of travel. If the perception of the risk moves up, that can tilt a lot of people to do something different.

I have occasionally gotten great travel deals when bad events/publicity had scared the traveling public. In those cases, I made my own assessment that the real risks hadn't changed. But my wife and I are also active, healthy, and adaptable to deal with uncertainties. The challenge with this virus (presuming it gets a major foothold around the world) is that the risk picture has little clarity. For people like airline cabin crew, it's something that has to be a very real concern.

Personally, I'm not shopping for great travel deals (yet). We had several cruises on the "maybe" list this year, and I'm holding off on any commitments for now. In a month or two I may feel differently.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

we closed Down the month of January and history shows that as a statistical indicator for the general market for the remainder of the year... So prepare for market discounts as we progress thru 2020...
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by mmcmonster »

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:28 am
curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:53 am I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
So then the question will be -- will the negative impact on my index fund portfolio be compensated for through great travel deals. :twisted:
Actionable: We're planning a trip to India over the summer. DW looked up airline tickets over the weekend and the rates for the summer were the best she's seen.

We didn't bite the bullet yet. Her concern is that we buy the tickets and get stranded in India because U.S. closes border (due to increased infection rate in India over the summer).

My thought is we buy the tickets. The drop in price is (if we believe in efficient markets) due to the small probability that pandemic prevents us from completing the trip. The risk is baked into the lower price. :D
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic, which is the market.

I fixed the spelling in the thread title - coronavirus is one word.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LittleMaggieMae »

I think we will have to wait and see... probably about 4 to 6 weeks. If it has a death of 1% is gonna be kinda ugly. (it's currently at 2% but it's hard to count how many people actually have the virus probably alot more than they think.) Regular Flu has a death rate of like 1/10th of a percent or so... with between 12K and 30K people dying in the US from it. What happens when the usual death rate doubles or triples or is 10x the usual? How does that effect the economy during those months?

It might be good to be invested in Big Pharma. Especially which ever one comes up the vaccine or what ever companies supply the ingredients or ship the stuff.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by GT99 »

LittleMaggieMae wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:57 pm I think we will have to wait and see... probably about 4 to 6 weeks. If it has a death of 1% is gonna be kinda ugly. (it's currently at 2% but it's hard to count how many people actually have the virus probably alot more than they think.) Regular Flu has a death rate of like 1/10th of a percent or so... with between 12K and 30K people dying in the US from it. What happens when the usual death rate doubles or triples or is 10x the usual? How does that effect the economy during those months?

It might be good to be invested in Big Pharma. Especially which ever one comes up the vaccine or what ever companies supply the ingredients or ship the stuff.
I agree, although I don't think it will take even 4 weeks to have a sense of where things are going. Right now, the number of reported cases is going up by over 15% per day. If that continues, you're looking at over 200,000 cases and over 4000 deaths two weeks from now...and if gets that widespread, it will take a lot longer to get it fully under control even if they were to figure out a way to treat it consistently. And there's no way China will be opening things up anytime soon if that happens. But it's now been 2 weeks since China started reacting strongly - given the up to 2 weeks incubation time, we should know soon how effective their actions have been (today was the lowest % increase in reported infections since they took action).
But if cases are only increasing 1 or 2% or day or are even declining, things might not be opening up economically, but we'll know it's moving in the right direction. Point being, in 2 weeks, we're going to know enough about how this is tracking to have a reasonable broad sense of economic impacts.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Pierre Delecto »

XM16E1 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:22 pm I've only seen one day where the market dipped, about 2%. I was waiting/hoping for a day #2 of the dip but since its gone up about 5%!! Awesome gains yes but I was hoping to buy on sale.

Am I the only one who thought there would be more instability in the market due to the corona virus and how dependent the US and rest of the world is on China's manufacturing?
Can’t predict these things. All the experts were saying markets would tank if Trump won in 2016. The opposite happened.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by lexor »

XM16E1 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:22 pm I've only seen one day where the market dipped, about 2%. I was waiting/hoping for a day #2 of the dip but since its gone up about 5%!! Awesome gains yes but I was hoping to buy on sale.

Am I the only one who thought there would be more instability in the market due to the corona virus and how dependent the US and rest of the world is on China's manufacturing?
I bought about 35k when it dropped because I had been meaning to buy and kept forgetting. Didn't think about it too much
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by curmudgeon »

curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:17 pm
TravelGeek wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:28 am
curmudgeon wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:53 am I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships.
So then the question will be -- will the negative impact on my index fund portfolio be compensated for through great travel deals. :twisted:
For now, there is mostly just a lot of uncertainty. There's a certain hit from various cancelled sailing and flights; if that's all, it will just be a minor blip. Lots of people (myself included) regard cruise ships and airplanes as rather unhealthy places, but have been willing to accept the risks for the enjoyment of travel. If the perception of the risk moves up, that can tilt a lot of people to do something different.

I have occasionally gotten great travel deals when bad events/publicity had scared the traveling public. In those cases, I made my own assessment that the real risks hadn't changed. But my wife and I are also active, healthy, and adaptable to deal with uncertainties. The challenge with this virus (presuming it gets a major foothold around the world) is that the risk picture has little clarity. For people like airline cabin crew, it's something that has to be a very real concern.

Personally, I'm not shopping for great travel deals (yet). We had several cruises on the "maybe" list this year, and I'm holding off on any commitments for now. In a month or two I may feel differently.
It now appears that one sick passenger infected at least 61 other passengers and crew in the course of five days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. With something that contagious around, I may put off all cruises until there is an effective vaccine available or some practical way of screening arriving passengers/crew (difficult because of the incubation period).
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by William Million »

I suspect there will be a hit to all markets, but it hasn't taken place yet. US investors haven't factored that in yet.

Over 60 cases of coronavirus on one ship will have to have a "fear impact" on the cruise ship industry, with countless cancellations this year. Also, not many Chinese traveling and they're among biggest spenders. Airlines have many cancelled flights. Many production lines in China interrupted.

However, it really depends how fast the disease comes under control. No one can answer that right now.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Valuethinker »

William Million wrote: Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:28 am I suspect there will be a hit to all markets, but it hasn't taken place yet. US investors haven't factored that in yet.

Over 60 cases of coronavirus on one ship will have to have a "fear impact" on the cruise ship industry, with countless cancellations this year. Also, not many Chinese traveling and they're among biggest spenders. Airlines have many cancelled flights. Many production lines in China interrupted.

However, it really depends how fast the disease comes under control. No one can answer that right now.
That's the key.

If it is a global pandemic, like the Hong Kong Flu (1967), then the effects could be more severe - and we move around much more than we did in 1967. Or God forbid, the Spanish Influenza of 1919.

Remember that the Chinese economy is 4x the size it was in 2000-03 when SARS hit. It is now the second largest economy in the world, so the economic effects are correspondingly greater.

As it goes global (more so than it already is) anything that requires public congregation - cinemas, shopping malls, mass transit, travel - is going to get hit. In 1919 there was the famous case of Philadelphia v St Louis - one closed public swimming baths & theatres much sooner than the other, and so had a lower infection rate (in those days many people would not have been able to bathe at home, so would go to a public facility).

Ditto discretionary expenditures e.g. new iphones and cars (in response to the sentiment). You could argue this is good for Netflix.

Supply chains will be badly disrupted if China goes off the global production system, even for a short while.

If it burns itself out this flu season a la SARS then it is a small effect - economy will quickly rebound. If it is a greater pandemic, then the effects will be correspondingly larger.

I don't know if there is a special place in the afterlife for the medical personnel who go in and face these pandemics, but I hope there is.

Dr Li Wenglian has gone to the afterlife, and I hope Dr Carlo Urbani, the hero of the SARS epidemic, is there to welcome him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlo_Urbani

I imagine them having tea, as we speak...
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by greenhill »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 pm 1918 was the word year of the flu pandemic in the United States. Here are the annual returns of the US stock market in that time frame.

Image
To be fair, the real return in 1918, 1919 and 1920 was -1.05%, 1.79% and -12.46% respectively.
Not good, but not disastrous either.
SandysDad
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by SandysDad »

In evaluating the market impact of coronavirus....

In times like these pay attention to WHAT PEOPLE DO, not what they “say”.

What are people DOING:
— Canceling almost all flights
— not allowing any visitors from the worlds largest country
— enforced quarantine that is unprecedented in modern times.

What this means to me is “this time it really is different”. They don’t do this for the flu. They did not do this for SARS or MERS.

Something has changed.

For me, I just lowered my exposure to China equities specifically.
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Tony-S
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

SandysDad wrote: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:36 am What this means to me is “this time it really is different”. They don’t do this for the flu. They did not do this for SARS or MERS.
Something has changed.
It is different. The epidemiologic curve of this virus is dramatically different. I'm not going to go into it because I don't want to spend the time on another post that will simply get deleted. But I moved about 10% of my port out of stocks and into bonds. I'm keeping an eye on it and may even do more. I hate market timing but the behavior of this virus is alarming.
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watchnerd
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by watchnerd »

fwellimort wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 pm Maybe we americans might experience mild hyperinflation in the near future in which inflation stays around ~5+% for a few years.
(Shrugs)
"Mild hyperinflation" sounds like an oxymoron.

Wouldn't that just be "high inflation"?
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Corsair
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Corsair »

If it keeps getting worse China and the Fed will continue to pump money into the markets.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Corsair »

This is concerning... CDC and WHO being shut out of China. Market is pricing in what the CCP is telling.
New York Times wrote:The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has offered for more than a month to send a team of experts to China to observe its coronavirus epidemic and help if it can. But no invitation from China has come — and no one can publicly explain why.

The World Health Organization, which made a similar offer about two weeks ago, appears to be facing the same cold shoulder, though a spokeswoman said it is just “sorting out arrangements.”

A possible reason, experts noted, is that outsiders could discover aspects of the outbreak that are embarrassing to China. For example, the country has not revealed how many of its doctors and nurses have died fighting the disease.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
rockstar
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by rockstar »

I'm getting my updates from the medcram youtube channel. Lots of great info. And the EU CDC also has a lot of great info.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/china ... 49423.html

China blocks plan to restart factories due to coronavirus threat.
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William Million
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by William Million »

SandysDad wrote: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:36 am In evaluating the market impact of coronavirus....

In times like these pay attention to WHAT PEOPLE DO, not what they “say”.

What are people DOING:
— Canceling almost all flights
— not allowing any visitors from the worlds largest country
— enforced quarantine that is unprecedented in modern times.

What this means to me is “this time it really is different”. They don’t do this for the flu. They did not do this for SARS or MERS.

Something has changed.

For me, I just lowered my exposure to China equities specifically.
From my standpoint, I'd like to use the crisis to buy VWO, which is heavily China-weighted, if it drops in the 30s. Beyond the long-term investment, I figure best thing we can do for our friends in China if crisis gets really bad is inject capital into their economy.
SandysDad
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by SandysDad »

William Million wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:28 am
From my standpoint, I'd like to use the crisis to buy VWO, which is heavily China-weighted, if it drops in the 30s. Beyond the long-term investment, I figure best thing we can do for our friends in China if crisis gets really bad is inject capital into their economy.
Buying VWO is not injecting capital into China. It is simply buying shares that someone else is selling. To inject capital, you can buy newly issued shares of a company based in China either via initial or subsequent offering. Or you can buy corporate bonds of Chinese companies.
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Re: Corona virus and the market

Post by Financologist »

CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:32 am I really feel that the markets are missing something, much of China has been shut down for weeks. The sheer loss of production if everything starts back up today will knock global trade down more than trumps trade war. I just do not see how we are at all time highs and going up in this time of turmoil and lost production.
And when production comes back online, do you think Chinese workers will be in the factory from only 9-5?

Watch the time lapse of a Chinese company building a building in 19 days.

Appears the market is counting on Chinese resilience. Something I would not bet against.

If you want a fun bet.. buy fxi.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by guyinlaw »

An "expert" on TV said they expected peak infection at 70k.. not sure where they got that number. Hopefully the fatalities start reducing.. daily deaths are still increasing, 73 -- 73-- 86 on Friday..

Nytimes reported that many of the initial deaths were not categorized as being related to coronavirus.
A total of 722 people had died from the virus and 34,546 were infected in mainland China by the end of Friday
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/asia ... ndex.html

Chinese infusion has stabilized their markets, but the spillover effects on supply chain is TBD..

This website is informative

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... us-cases/
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pesos
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by pesos »

Sold my company recently and am prepping to get the proceeds into the market. Lump sum? Dca? Mattress??
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Schlabba
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Schlabba »

pesos wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:19 am Sold my company recently and am prepping to get the proceeds into the market. Lump sum? Dca? Mattress??
I will turn the question around as math-wise it is the same.

If you already had your portfolio in the market, would you take it out and put in under the mattress because of (potentially) bad financial news?

Hopefully not. Just lump-sum into an asset allocation you are comfortable with.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

Is it possible to merge all of these coronavirus threads?
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William Million
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by William Million »

Will be interesting if Chinese economy outside the restricted areas starts up some time in Feb.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by LadyGeek »

columbia wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:16 am Is it possible to merge all of these coronavirus threads?
Sure, but I don't see any that could be merged. (Locked threads won't be merged.) If I missed something, please report the post using the ! in the top-right corner of the post and explain what's needed. One of the reasons is "Duplicate thread".
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columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:00 am
columbia wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:16 am Is it possible to merge all of these coronavirus threads?
Sure, but I don't see any that could be merged. (Locked threads won't be merged.) If I missed something, please report the post using the ! in the top-right corner of the post and explain what's needed. One of the reasons is "Duplicate thread".
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