REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Ilovevolleyball
Posts: 352
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 2:56 am

Post by Ilovevolleyball » Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:18 am

Hope for mild year....

978.39 SP 500 Close 12/31/2009


Mike

User avatar
srutherford
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:28 pm

Happy & Healthy '09!

Post by srutherford » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:06 am

My guess is: 948.00

Best Wishes, Steve

LocalHero
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:44 am
Location: Iowa

Post by LocalHero » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:05 pm

Prognostication: $1527.23

Best wishes to All,
JB
Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together. -- Red Green

User avatar
mickeyd
Posts: 4635
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:19 pm
Location: Deep in the Heart of South Texas

Post by mickeyd » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:08 pm

948.41 ON 12/31/09 +5%
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

g koz
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2007 11:45 pm

Bogleheads Contest 2009

Post by g koz » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:24 pm

My guess is 1175.

g koz

retiredtom
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 12:09 am
Location: Arizona

Post by retiredtom » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:53 pm

I will pick 999.09

Retired Tom & Mrs. Tom

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 18634
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Post by VictoriaF » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:37 pm

666

Victoria

HerrJoebob
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2007 2:16 am

Post by HerrJoebob » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:50 pm

1200.2

bf0123
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:50 pm

S&P 2009

Post by bf0123 » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:51 pm

My guess is 873.

Hemispheres
Posts: 577
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:54 pm

Post by Hemispheres » Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:31 pm

1125 == 25% gain for the year

tuffy88
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:09 pm

Post by tuffy88 » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:11 pm

S&P500 at end of 2009. 1000

corvus
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:08 pm

2009 Bogleheads Contest

Post by corvus » Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:33 pm

S&P at end of 2009: 931.80

[Edit: Shit, linuxizer already guessed that. That's my GMO point... I'm sticking with my mattress from now on.]

Lacrocious
Posts: 323
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:45 pm
Location: Wisconsin

Post by Lacrocious » Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:49 pm

Let's hope for a good year - 1278

User avatar
Betelgeuse
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:31 am
Location: Chicago Area

Post by Betelgeuse » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:55 am

CONGRATULATIONS to our top-ten winner, Betelgeuse, who has won the prize of an updated "Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" and also a book written and autographed by our mentor, Jack Bogle.
Well, I suppose I should divulge my secret for winning the 2008 contest. The method I used was a straight forward one. Basically, I went against the grain. Yep, that's it. I wonder if I'll get a financial analyst position with the financial company I work for. :D

I think the book I'll go with is "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing". Haven't read it yet, but looking forward to it.

Good luck to everyone in the 2009 Contest!! And thanks to the forum for this contest and the gift!

Editor's note: Betelguese "guessed" 1212 in an earlier Reply.

User avatar
celia
Posts: 8613
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 6:32 am
Location: SoCal

Post by celia » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:11 am

1512 (for the end of 2009)

Bogleheads are smarter than the average investor. I think their average guess, I mean calculation, was only off by one year (ie, the average guess for the end of 2008 should have been meant for the end of 2009).

Keith Lommel
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:33 am

My guess for 2009

Post by Keith Lommel » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:17 am

1,123.58

snoopdoug1
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:53 am

Post by snoopdoug1 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:20 am

977

User avatar
BigFoot48
Posts: 2602
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

Ever The Optimist

Post by BigFoot48 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:48 am

1,234.56
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

amplifier
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:12 pm

Post by amplifier » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:55 am

877

User avatar
Roverdog
Posts: 475
Joined: Fri May 02, 2008 11:39 am

Post by Roverdog » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:54 pm

1121.07

I prefer to guess with precision. :)

Thanks Taylor!


Bob

sambuca08
Posts: 89
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 5:15 pm

Post by sambuca08 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:12 pm

1027.6 on Dec. 31st close (Thrs) with a higher close Jan 1st (Fri)

My edit - I really could care less about a book and bragging rights, although a conversation with Bogle would be almost as cool as Buffet, but enough banter, reasoning (all important, dependable, essential) - I believe the market will go up, because of nature. Not Human Nature, which is ricidulously roundabout, but bends eventually.... no, I'm thinking Godforsaken nauture where weak is drawn to strong. Forever, throughout the universe, the vacuum pulls, water finds level, and we frantically try to make sense of what is actually simple. Oil is going up, weak countries are getting stronger... No, I fret more about the next downturn than this one, because every one gets more difficult. Government can correct nascent imbalances, but if the financial sector rebuilds 'better, stronger, etc.' and the world is hooked on cheap oil, the US better have studied the UK, because China will be dictating terms next time... uh, can I hear an Amen??
Last edited by sambuca08 on Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mmg
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:40 am

Post by mmg » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:27 pm

1117

MMG
Last edited by mmg on Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

GG
Posts: 447
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 8:09 pm

Post by GG » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:48 pm

I think I guessed by using my wife's birthday like 5 years ago. Didn't think I'd use it again. Lol!

1026.74

Wind_Reaver
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:15 pm

Re: 2009 Bogleheads Contest.

Post by Wind_Reaver » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:37 pm

Thanks for this contest.
My guess is S&P500 at 973.73 on 12/31/2009.

Dreef1999
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 6:22 pm

Post by Dreef1999 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:40 pm

734.00

gordo
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 5:14 pm
Location: CA

Post by gordo » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:57 pm

1014.25, which is the mean of the first 221 guesses on this thread up to now.

Vulture Dawg
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:10 am

Post by Vulture Dawg » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:01 pm

850

User avatar
zhiwiller
Posts: 1254
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:47 pm
Location: Central Florida
Contact:

Post by zhiwiller » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:29 pm

Letting my 2006 and 2007 guesses ride: 1659.06

Display
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:42 pm

S&P 2009 Prediction

Post by Display » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:00 pm

S&P Prediction for 2009: 1213.5
Charles

Nowizard
Posts: 1622
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:33 pm

Prediction:

Post by Nowizard » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:11 pm

976.67 is my prediction for the market.

Nowizard

luther
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 1:54 pm

2009 prediction

Post by luther » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:37 pm

921

Happy new year, MLB

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 4154
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: ~ Mi Propio Camino ~

943.43

Post by cfs » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:47 pm

943.43
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

User avatar
KarlJ
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:41 pm

Post by KarlJ » Mon Jan 05, 2009 9:46 pm

1101.81

User avatar
steve50
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 4:59 pm

Post by steve50 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 9:56 pm

799

IL Int Med
Posts: 180
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:51 am
Location: Illinois

Post by IL Int Med » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:46 am

My guess: 1212

User avatar
risharinga
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2007 12:42 am
Location: Puget Sound, WA.

Post by risharinga » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:30 am

923

donmichael
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:04 am

Post by donmichael » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:13 am

My guess is 999.5
Don

User avatar
NYCPete
Posts: 713
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:24 pm
Location: New York, NY

Post by NYCPete » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:32 am

1052.10
To the extent that a fool knows his foolishness, | He may be deemed wise | A fool who considers himself wise | Is indeed a fool. | | Buddha

sschullo
Posts: 2440
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:25 am
Location: Rancho Mirage, CA
Contact:

Post by sschullo » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:04 am

After 30 years of massive deficit spending, trade deficits, credit card borrowing, bailing out whoever and now with new spending for infrastructure and new tax cuts, where is the government getting this money, my gosh, they are going to just print it. I know, I know inflation has been predicted all along and no sign of it yet.
Just my 2 cents worth,

S&P 769
Public School K-12 Educators: "Ask NOT what your annuity sales person can do for you, ask what you can do to be a Do-It-Yourselfer (DIY)."

PaulW
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:09 am
Location: PA

Post by PaulW » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:16 pm

Hope I'm low, but... 998.31

User avatar
sddiehard
Posts: 156
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:29 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Post by sddiehard » Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:59 pm

1100 (why not!)

Paul

User avatar
joe8d
Posts: 4298
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:27 pm
Location: Buffalo,NY

Post by joe8d » Tue Jan 06, 2009 8:18 pm

1188
All the Best, | Joe

at ease
Posts: 340
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:16 am

Post by at ease » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:05 am

SP.... 911

User avatar
bilperk
Posts: 541
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:00 am
Location: Florida

Post by bilperk » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:29 am

987 and I hope I lose


best,
Bill

jdrmlr
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:45 pm

S & P 2009 guess

Post by jdrmlr » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:45 am

1055.70 just a guess

hexagon
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:32 am

Post by hexagon » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:37 am

I guess: 1223 (200th prime number)


--"I don't know how "deep" I'd claim this is, but certainly those numbers
were not just made up randomly..."
(Noam Elkies)

bearcat98
Posts: 289
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:26 pm

Post by bearcat98 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:44 pm

788.35

Dollar cost averaging, up or down.

oragne lovre
Posts: 483
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:34 pm

S&P on 31 December 2009

Post by oragne lovre » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:09 pm

1009.

Ramon
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 9:00 pm

Post by Ramon » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:59 pm

1069.19

User avatar
actuaryinvestor
Posts: 150
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 2:33 pm

S&P Guess

Post by actuaryinvestor » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:20 pm

1285.02

Same guess as last year. Funny how last year this guess was bearish and this year it's bullish.

Post Reply