REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:08 pm

Hi Bogleheads:

I am pleased to announce our ninth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best stock market Gurus. This is our record in 2008:

* We had 284 brave Bogleheads register their forecasts. Only two Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would go (Betelgeuse and gchan).

* We had official forecasts from 13 of the largest Wall Street firms. All thought the S&P 500 Index would go UP in 2008 (it went down -38.5%).

* 116 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the BEST of Wall Street (Morgan Stanley).

* 214 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the second best of Wall Street (JP Morgan).

* The S&P Index started last year at 1468. The average Boglehead guessed it would finish the year at 1512. The Average Wall Street firm forecast a year-end close of 1647. The S&P finished the year at 903.

* Our top-ten 2008 Boglehead Contest winners and forecast are:

1 Betelgeuse 876.00
2 gchan 869.47
3 Spawntilyoudie 1066.00
4 bf0123 1099.00
5 Quasimodo 1101.00
6 Russell 1145.00
7 Dead Man Walking 1160.00
8 iranutmeg 1174.00
9 Random Musings 1190.56
10 gkaplan 1212.70

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/

CONGRATULATIONS to our top-ten winner, Betelgeuse, who has won the prize of an updated "Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" and also a book written and autographed by our mentor, Jack Bogle.

Think you can beat the experts? These are the S&P forecasts for 2009 from 12 of the best:

1250 James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management
1100 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1100 Thomas Lee, JP Morgan
1100 Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners
1050 Robert Doll, BlackRock
1025 Larry Adam, Deutsche Bank
1020 Christopher Hyzy, U.S. Trust
1000 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1000 Jerry Webman, Oppenheimer Funds
975 Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
975 Abhijlt Chakrabortti, Morgan Stanley
950 Allson Deans, Neuberger Berman

Now we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead stock market forecasters in 2009. The rules are simple:

1. Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009.
2. Only one guess (no percentages)
3. Registration closes midnight January 10, 2009
4. In event of ties, the first guess wins.
5. Winner must PM me by January 10, 2010 (to confirm user name and mailing address)
6. Post your S&P forecast below.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

LynnC
Posts: 796
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Location: California

1,333.33

Post by LynnC » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:18 pm

I'm sticking with this number. It shows HOPE! (1,333.33)

Thanks, Taylor

LynnC
Last edited by LynnC on Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Sally
Posts: 308
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Post by Sally » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:18 pm

2009 ending: 2013

Whoops, I meant 1013 though I like the looks of 2013 better!!!
Last edited by Sally on Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Ron
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Post by Ron » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:20 pm

1235.64

Cookiekaikai
Posts: 28
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Location: Katy, TX

Post by Cookiekaikai » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:21 pm

End of 2009 S&P at 950
Thanks All, Edmond

Norris
Posts: 523
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 10:04 am

Post by Norris » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:21 pm

S&P 500 on 12/31/2009: 1211

Happy New Year
Norris
Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. Confucius

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mudfud
Posts: 1218
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Post by mudfud » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:25 pm

1298
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image

Avo
Posts: 1099
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Location: California

Post by Avo » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:26 pm

I can't decide whether it will go up or down, so:

903

stan1
Posts: 6004
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Post by stan1 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:26 pm

1000

RTR2006
Posts: 823
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Location: Near SF...

Post by RTR2006 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:27 pm

End number for 2009: 1105

We'll see...

:D

RTR

ruud
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Location: san francisco bay area

Post by ruud » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:31 pm

966.48

--ruud
"A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week."

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Adrian Nenu
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Post by Adrian Nenu » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:34 pm

My optimistic prediction - 1155

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com

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JMacDonald
Posts: 2145
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Post by JMacDonald » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:36 pm

Hi,
My forecast is 857.85.
Best Wishes, | Joe

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Mel Lindauer
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Contact:

Post by Mel Lindauer » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:41 pm

My WAG is 953.56.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Cb
Posts: 274
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Post by Cb » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:42 pm

1060

gcturp
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Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Post by gcturp » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:43 pm

End of 2009: SP500 = 803



Also:
Yankees will suck (again) and spend even more money
Cubs will disappoint (again)
Rays will win it all this time

ziggy29
Posts: 925
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Location: Southeast Texas Boonies

Post by ziggy29 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:47 pm

984.

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danwalk
Posts: 389
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Location: The West Coast

Post by danwalk » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:48 pm

S&P on 12/31/09: 1071.

Happy New Year!
Image | "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."—Jack Bogle

mschmitt
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Post by mschmitt » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:51 pm

My guess is that 2009 will disappoint... S&P500 = 752

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craigr
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Post by craigr » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:53 pm

1128 - Up 25% from today.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me. | | Please refer to archive.is or archive.org for old links in my post.

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Bruce
Posts: 331
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Location: Alaska

Post by Bruce » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:00 pm

1009

Happy New Year,
Bruce | | Winner of the 2017 Bogleheads Contest | | "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Dan Kohn
Posts: 1505
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Contact:

Post by Dan Kohn » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:01 pm

1084, please. And thanks for running the contest!

NYCAB
Posts: 3
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Post by NYCAB » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:04 pm

707

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Soaker
Posts: 252
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Post by Soaker » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:04 pm

Soaker guesses 1140.62.

I took the 12/31/1999 close of 1469.25 and applied an annualized return of -2.5% for the decade. :(

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Quasimodo
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Post by Quasimodo » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:05 pm

444

Thanks for running the contest, Taylor!

John
Many wealthy people are little more than janitors of their possessions. | | Frank Lloyd Wright, architect (1867-1959)

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theduke
Posts: 608
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Post by theduke » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:06 pm

1003

tonythered
Posts: 834
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Post by tonythered » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:14 pm

1096 (though I hope higher!).

hudson
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Post by hudson » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:18 pm

1020

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Rick Ferri
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Contact:

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:21 pm

1215

Rick Ferri

earlyout
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Post by earlyout » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:34 pm

I'll guess 1144.

EO

n42
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Post by n42 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:34 pm

680

rsbe
Posts: 2
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S&P 2009

Post by rsbe » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:40 pm

750

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LonePrairie
Posts: 238
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Location: Northern California

Post by LonePrairie » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:42 pm

My guess is 1,083

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DelrayDave
Posts: 47
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My Guess: 980

Post by DelrayDave » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:42 pm

My guess is 980.

bac573
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Post by bac573 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:44 pm

957.18


Modest 6% increase.
One thing to know about this town; not a person doesn't want me underground.

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DRiP Guy
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Post by DRiP Guy » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:46 pm

1089


(I chose that number independently, but then I looked at what others were guessing and noted a lot of people seem to be 'in the neighborhood' with my guess. Once the entry period is closed, I'll make a distribution analysis of all the entries...)

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renditt
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Post by renditt » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:48 pm

1208

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squirl
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:52 am

1023.45

Post by squirl » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:54 pm

1023.45

LFT_PFT
Posts: 266
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Post by LFT_PFT » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:59 pm

My guess: 900

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camper
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Location: My side of the mountain

Post by camper » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:05 pm

Dec 31, 2009 S&P 500 1153

sport
Posts: 7406
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Location: Cleveland, OH

Post by sport » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:06 pm

1111.11

Jeff

bluecrabster
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Post by bluecrabster » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:13 pm

Closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009

1083.90

Happy New Year to everyone!

Wes

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LGRZEMKOWSKI
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Location: GREEN BAY, WI

Post by LGRZEMKOWSKI » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:33 pm

I feel another year of PAIN:

452

Larry G
TIME the most precious commodity!

dandetour
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Location: Texas

Post by dandetour » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:42 pm

1057

Dan

UKbloke
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Post by UKbloke » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:43 pm

1468.

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mijo40
Posts: 19
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Location: Nebraska

Post by mijo40 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:48 pm

A nice upturn in 2009.

I will try 1173.90

Milan

wilksdr
Posts: 15
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Post by wilksdr » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:55 pm

I'm guessing a close at 650. We'll have a big run up to around 1100-1150 through March, and then another crash to near 500 this time.

End of year 650.

hudson4351
Posts: 307
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Post by hudson4351 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:06 pm

I will guess 975.

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Unormal
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Location: the middle

Post by Unormal » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:11 pm

903 * average inflation = 930

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wbond
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Post by wbond » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:16 pm

1000

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