Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

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Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:53 am

I am pleased to present Paul Merriman as my guest on the Bogleheads on Investing podcast.

Episode 018: Paul Merriman, host Rick Ferri

Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via free eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at his website.

Our discussion centers on Paul's investment strategies, including his popular "Ultimate Buy-and-Hold Portfolio" and newer "2 Funds for Life” strategy that he created with Chris Pedersen.

Enjoy!

Rick Ferri
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by paul merriman » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:23 am

Hi Rick,
Thanks for the opportunity to share the investment strategies that I believe will help investors improve their investment returns. i hope to get some tough questions from the Bogleheads. I am open to new ideas. If not, I wouldn't not have listened to Chris Pedersen, one of the smartest investors I know.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by indexlover » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:32 am

I had not heard Paul before but i was thoroughly unconvinced with his 1) value, growth, large cap , mid cap, small cap "asset" class diversification2) market timing strategy. No thanks, I will just stick my 3 fund boglehead way . I listened to this podcast very carefully to learn something but it was so complex . Made me appreciate the very simple bogleheads strategy much much more . I was disappointed that Rick didn't challenge lot of the statements he was making. The 2 fund strategy was totally unconvincing as well.
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Elysium » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm

I tried to listen to all of it, with great patience, as I wanted to know if I could learn something that I didn't know already, especially since he appeared to have different ideas.

Unfortunately, I was unimpressed, as I felt he fell short of explaining his ideas clearly. For instance, the entire discussion on timing vs buy & hold, there was no fact or evidence based backing to it, what methods did he use, how he measured whether they are working, how much deviation did he do, so on.. and the entire four corners vs market discussion was all old information re-hashed. Finally, he lost me when he said he was simply following DFA folks when he called the styles as asset classes, after having trouble explaining it.

Rick did a good job of challenging him on these concepts without actually pushing hard, but stating things very crystal clear and then letting the other side accept burden of countering.
Last edited by Elysium on Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm

Rick:

I listened to the entire podcast. Paul Merriman is very likeable and he sounds very convincing.

I bought Paul's book, "Investing For A Lifetime" directly from Paul in 1992. It is all about market-timing which I notice he has not given up. Fortunately, I read "Bogle On Mutual Funds" a year later which put me on the road to investment success.

I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.

Best wishes
Taylor
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Forester » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm

I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:41 pm

Not everyone agrees with the strategies Paul advocates, but that's OK. One goal of the podcast is to offer different opinions from our guests, and that's why I asked Paul to be on the show.

Thanks for listening!

Rick
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by friar1610 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:53 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:41 pm
Not everyone agrees with everything Paul said, but that's OK. One goal of the podcast is to offer different opinions from our guests, and that's why I asked Paul to be on the show.

Thanks for listening!

Rick
I enjoyed the podcast (as I do all of them) and appreciated the fact that there was a bit more give and take than with some of the previous guests. I sometimes worry that (both financially and politically) I spend too much time reading and listening to "echo chamber" sources. So it's good to hear and think about other points of view.
Friar1610

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by dharrythomas » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:14 pm

Rick,

Thanks. I’ll listen in the morning on my walk.I’ve read a bunch of his stuff and listened to several talks on small and value, enough to have a small tilt.

Thank you for brining multiple perspectives to the table, thank you for what you do here, and thank you for your service to our country.

Harry

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:17 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.
It would have been far more embarrassing to Rick if he had done so because those portfolios do not have remotely the same stock/bond allocations. It would be comparing apples to oranges.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:19 pm

Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm
I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.
:thumbsup

I find it interesting that so many here believe that buy-and-hold is an appropriate strategy for every single investor. I firmly believe that some investors are not just cut out for it, at least not with their entire portfolio. Paul has been very clear that he believes that buy-and-hold is what most investors should do, and I agree, but that doesn't mean that it's best for everyone. It's little different from saying that all investors need a 60/40 AA.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:22 pm

I have four rules for the podcast:

1) Educate listeners with relevant material;
2) Promote the Bogleheads site and Wiki;
3) Make my guest sound good;
4) Make me sound good.

:D
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:25 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:22 pm
I have four rules for the podcast:

1) Educate listeners with relevant material;
2) Promote the Bogleheads site and Wiki;
3) Make my guest sound good;
4) Make me sound good.

:D
Rick:

You succeeded.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by JBTX » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:31 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:17 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.
It would have been far more embarrassing to Rick if he had done so because those portfolios do not have remotely the same stock/bond allocations. It would be comparing apples to oranges.
+1

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by bradshaw1965 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:57 pm

Thanks Rick, always enjoy listening. Great selection of guests.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by DB2 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:37 pm

Really enjoyed it. I liked hearing what he said about his conversations with Bogle.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:07 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm

I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.

Best wishes
Taylor
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Simplicity wins!
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:09 pm

I find it amazing that some debate the merits of buy and hold on a forum (as titled at the top) "Bogleheads.org - Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle".

Perhaps a trading and market timing forum is a better fit.
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:12 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:09 pm
I find it amazing that some debate the merits of buy and hold on a forum (as titled at the top) "Bogleheads.org - Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle".

Perhaps a trading and market timing forum is a better fit.
Considering that Bogle himself explicitly timed the market at least once (yes, I know, many factors were at work, but it was at least partly on the basis of market conditions), it's should not be a verboten topic.
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by columbia » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:13 pm

Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm
I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.

One can do that by just holding a higher percentage of bonds/cash.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:21 pm

columbia wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:13 pm
Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm
I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.

One can do that by just holding a higher percentage of bonds/cash.
Well said. Market timing and security selection has been proven time and again to not work.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:28 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:22 pm
I have four rules for the podcast:

1) Educate listeners with relevant material;
2) Promote the Bogleheads site and Wiki;
3) Make my guest sound good;
4) Make me sound good.

:D
Nice job Mr. Ferri!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by guyinlaw » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:58 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:17 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.
It would have been far more embarrassing to Rick if he had done so because those portfolios do not have remotely the same stock/bond allocations. It would be comparing apples to oranges.
:thumbsup

sorry to see so much disdain for people who don't follow the 3 fund portfolio wow.. wonder how the two strategies stack up over last 2 decades, with similar bond%

Regarding market-timing Paul clearly says at the start that Market timing is NOT for do it yourself investors.
60% of the people can be good buy and hold investors, but only 2% can be good market timers.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Elysium » Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm

Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:38 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% returns for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.
Based on what? TMK, he hasn't made the specifics of his market timing strategy public, though he reports having very similar long-term returns to buy-and-hold. His UBH portfolio has lagged the 3-fund somewhat over the last decade, but not much.
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by hoops777 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:47 pm

It seems his main focus is on increasing small cap value. If one goes by historical returns,he is correct. It does not take a genius to figure out that a 100 pct target date fund will have a lower return than an allocation of 90 pct TDF and 10 pct SCV if you go by historical returns. He pointed out numerous times that the future returns are unknown. I believe his approach is excellent and agree or disagree, he certainly should be respected.

Is he incorrect in saying the total market is way out of balance because of the dominance of large caps? I think his method is very logical and more complex,but certainly sound.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by TonyDAntonio » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:36 pm

Paul Merriman is one of the first persons I learned from when I decided to 'get smart' about investing in 2008. I adopted his small, large, value, growth, US, exUS asset allocation and haven't changed. It's not hard. It's not complicated. It certainly hasn't returned as much had I not changed from my mostly one large cap US fund in my 2008 401k. Such is life! I always thought Mr. Merriman was thoughtful and generous with his time. I also thought his ideas were sound.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:54 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
Rick:

I listened to the entire podcast. Paul Merriman is very likeable and he sounds very convincing.

I bought Paul's book, "Investing For A Lifetime" directly from Paul in 1992. It is all about market-timing which I notice he has not given up. Fortunately, I read "Bogle On Mutual Funds" a year later which put me on the road to investment success.

I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.

Best wishes
Taylor
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by rascott » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Elysium » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm

rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?
I will let others decide for themselves after reading the links what to make of it. Obviously, I expected a small minority in favor of market timing to come out with vocal support. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by One Ping » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:45 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm
rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?
I will let others decide for themselves after reading the links what to make of it. Obviously, I expected a small minority in favor of market timing to come out with vocal support. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
He said what the investment was on his podcast Merriman Podcast - Jan 28, 2020. He begins talking about it starting at about 10:00. He even mentions specifically what it was it at about 13:55. It had nothing to do with investing in the market or market timing. It was HIS COMPANY!!! It's the return on the initial investment in his company. Much like, for example, Bill Gates made in his company I would imagine. What do you suppose the annualized return on Bill Gates initial investment would be if he sold out?

You either did not listen to the podcast, or you did not understand what was said. I will let others decide for themselves after listening to the podcast. :annoyed
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Elysium » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:51 pm

One Ping wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:45 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm
rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?
I will let others decide for themselves after reading the links what to make of it. Obviously, I expected a small minority in favor of market timing to come out with vocal support. Promise of excess returns though opaque market timing methods are typically done with intent to deceive.
He said what the investment was on his podcast Merriman Podcast - Jan 28, 2020. He begins talking about it starting at about 10:00. He even mentions specifically what it was it at about 13:55. It had nothing to do with investing in the market or market timing. It was HIS COMPANY!!! It's the return on the initial investment in his company. Much like, for example, Bill Gates made in his company I would imagine. What do you suppose the annualized return on Bill Gates initial investment would be if he sold out?

You either did not listen to the podcast, or you did not understand what was said. I will let others decide for themselves after listening to the podcast. :annoyed
I did listen to what he said, and stand by my comments. Topic exhausted, do not wish to hijack thread.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:08 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.
Paul Merriman’s 30% return for 30 years was his initial seed investment of $15,000 into his brokerage business which he then sold for $40,000,000 30 years later.

averagedude
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by averagedude » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:21 pm

I haven't listened to the podcast yet {tomorrow), but I have listened to all of Paul's podcasts. I truly believe he is a class act gentleman with a huge desire to educate young people on being successful in life. He does have strong convictions on small and value premiums, and his road map to reach Dublin is unique. I don't agree with everything he says, but I believe the criticisms of him are a bit unfair. As far as market timing, he personally dabbles in this, and he recommends strongly that people not try it. He will admit that he will get lower returns with this strategy, but he is comfortable in doing this to prevent large drawdowns. He will also admit that he doesn't do it himself because he doesn't want any of his emotions to interfere in this. I could be wrong, but I believe that he has respect for us bogleheads and the three fund portfolio, and I don't think he would talk any retired individual out of the three fund portfolio, if that was how they wanted to invest. Rick, the lineup of guests that you have had on your podcasts is sensational, Paul Merriman included. I'm sure Paul is delighted to be a guest on a podcast with the likes of John Bogle, Jonathon Clemens, Christine Benz, Bill Bernstein, and Larry Swedroe, just to name a few.

Elysium
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Elysium » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:08 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.
Paul Merriman’s 30% return for 30 years was his initial seed investment of $15,000 into his brokerage business which he then sold for $40,000,000 30 years later.
Hyperbole. You don't call your business value generated over 30 years as an output of only your initial seed money. I will admit that it is skillful marketing.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by bikechuck » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:27 pm

Just wanted to say thank you to both Rick and Paul for an excellent podcast. I have learned so much over the years from both of you and I enjoyed your discussion.

Jags4186
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:30 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:22 pm
Hyperbole. You don't call your business value generated over 30 years as an output of only your initial seed money. I will admit that it is skillful marketing.
What is he skillfully marketing when he makes that statement?

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by sleepysurf » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:26 pm

Paul Merriman, like Rick, and others, is definitely one of the "good guys" in the investing education arena. He's not alone in promoting a "sliced and diced" asset (or sub-asset) class approach (e.g. Bill Schultheis' Coffeehouse Portfolio, and many others), and deserves respect for what he does, even if we don't fully agree with his investing philosophy.

I, for one, enjoyed the podcast, and encourage those not familiar with Paul's work to explore his website, free books, and more of his podcasts, for a deeper understanding of his approach. Although he may not be as eloquent and smooth talking as others in the financial podcast world, he speaks from the heart, and, IMHO, is as honest as they come. I'd love to hear him as a panelist at one of the Boglehead conferences, but that's probably unlikely, as he's stated that he's significantly cutting back his travel/appearance schedule.
Retired 2018 | ~50/45/5 (partially sliced and diced)

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Forester
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Forester » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:37 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:21 pm
columbia wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:13 pm
Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm
I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.

One can do that by just holding a higher percentage of bonds/cash.
Well said. Market timing and security selection has been proven time and again to not work.
Historically timing has fared well against the time average benchmark of stock/bond exposure.

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/10/16/ ... following/

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Forester
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Forester » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:41 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm
rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?
I will let others decide for themselves after reading the links what to make of it. Obviously, I expected a small minority in favor of market timing to come out with vocal support. Promise of excess returns though opaque market timing methods are typically done with intent to deceive.
I doubt there's even a mention of timing on his investor education website. He recommends investors dial in their risk preference with bonds. He has said a ton of times that he does not recommend timing for the majority of investors. Mr Merriman rarely broaches the subject on his podcast.

HippoSir
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by HippoSir » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:00 am

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm
Promise of excess returns though opaque market timing methods are typically done with intent to deceive.
To be 100% clear, you are suggestion Paul Merriman has the intent to deceive?

Anyway, great podcast. Good questions and interesting discussion.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by Bama12 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:18 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
Rick:

I listened to the entire podcast. Paul Merriman is very likeable and he sounds very convincing.

I bought Paul's book, "Investing For A Lifetime" directly from Paul in 1992. It is all about market-timing which I notice he has not given up. Fortunately, I read "Bogle On Mutual Funds" a year later which put me on the road to investment success.

I am glad you did not embarrass Paul by asking about his 10-fund "Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio" in the current Market Watch Contest. Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Simplicity is the Master Key to Financial Success"
Very unfair look at the Stock/Bonds. I have been investing like Paul does for years and have done a lot better then the Three-Fund portfolio.

Paul also puts his money where he tells you to put yours. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle both said most people don't understand and need something simple.

Paul is a great guy and teaches instead of saying do this because you are to dumb to invest like I do.

CFM300
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by CFM300 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:32 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 pm
Allan Roth's Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place.
That's not true. The S&P 500 is in first place over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years.

Or, if you prefer, a Three-Fund Portfolio allocated thusly: 100% Total U.S. Stock, 0% Total International Stock, 0% Total U.S. Bonds

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by guyinlaw » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:15 am

Here is the comparison of 4 fund portfolio (LCB, LCV, SCB, SCV) that Paul recommends and compared to TSM (very close to SP500 or LCB)

From 1972 it 4 fund portfolio has outperformed TSM by 1.51%. You can see the performance with actual funds and representative indexes.. There are many SC and SCV funds much cheaper than DFA now..

Image
https://paulmerriman.com/90-years-of-ev ... r-returns/

Image
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion4_1=25

Image
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion4_1=25

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by whodidntante » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:33 am

Did anyone besides Rick do the small cap value drinking game? :happy

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by peterinjapan » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:35 am

Thanks, Rick! I've been following Paul for years, and love his passion for helping improve the investing loves of many people. I'll listen to this soon.

I'm so confused on SCV. I want buy in, but it seems like, in a world where a) a huge bias towards S&P-like large caps has emerged due to index investing, and b) several "Jupiter-sized planetary bodies" (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are perverting the orbits of small stocks, the game might have fundamentally changed. At leat, SCV might be in the penalty box for a long time.

Am I wrong? (Of course no one knows until another couple decades have unfolded...)

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by rascott » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:52 am

Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm
rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Paul Merriman is no stranger to making controversial comments, including tall claims about market beating returns as high as 30% annually for 30 years (how absurd) when expected returns are supposedly lower. I will not go into psychoanalyzing what could driving him to make these statements, but his market timing methods and various bets haven't paid off.

See some of the stories behind his posturing against Jack Bogle:

https://paulmerriman.com/bet-john-bogle/

https://paulmerriman.com/john-bogles-big-bet/

https://paulmerriman.com/tag/john-bogle-interview/

Since Merriman has put himself out there publicly like that, it is only fair he is called on his record of market timing. Taylor and Rick are gentlemen of great character and restraint, I would be far less charitable.


Nonsense..... he did share a claim on a certain investment that he held that returned something along that line..... and he also clarified it was extremely high risk and always had the chance of going to zero.

As to those bets you linked.... you are calling him out on a 20 year bet that's not even 6 years old?
I will let others decide for themselves after reading the links what to make of it. Obviously, I expected a small minority in favor of market timing to come out with vocal support. Promise of excess returns though opaque market timing methods are typically done with intent to deceive.


There is literally no material on his website.... nor has he advocated a market timing technique to anyone. He has answered people's questions that he has half of his own money in a market timing system. And he doesn't recommend it to others.

Not one of those links has anything to do with market timing. Paul is a very generous guy.... he is no longer in business in any manner, and does all his work on a volunteer basis. You don't like the small and value tilted portfolio he recommends.... fine. But to attack his character, and manufacture claims that don't exist is unnecessary.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by abuss368 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:35 am

Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:37 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:21 pm
columbia wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:13 pm
Forester wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 pm
I don't understand the comments above, I felt Mr Merriman spoke as clearly as he could to a general audience on timing, the method & the realistic expectations of timing failure. It is right for him because he wants some way of alleviating the worst of a catastrophic bear market.

One can do that by just holding a higher percentage of bonds/cash.
Well said. Market timing and security selection has been proven time and again to not work.
Historically timing has fared well against the time average benchmark of stock/bond exposure.

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/10/16/ ... following/
Good luck. Please keep us updated how it works out.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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nedsaid
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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by nedsaid » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:28 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:40 am
smectym wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:31 am
I probably have Paul Merriman confused with some other person: he’s not the guy who has generated endless investment spam articles on Marketwatch and other venues for lo these many decades past? If so I would’ve thought he was one of the sources of “noise” that it is an article of faith on this forum that we should all “tune out.”

But as I say, probably my mistake
You are not mistaken. As I said in earlier comments, the marketing may be sleazy but it is a technique proven to work with masses. Offer some magic formula for making excess returns and you'll get enough followers. As evidenced by the supporters on this thread.
Larry Swedroe is gone for good. Now Paul Merriman is getting the same treatment and disrespect here and it was a big mistake for him to agree to the podcast. Rick Ferri has done a great job with these podcasts but the endless trolling is undoing the good Rick is trying to do. This has gone beyond disagreement, it is character assassination and I am shocked the forum is allowing it.

I used to really enjoy Bogleheads but it is becoming as dull as watching tumbleweeds tumble or watching paint dry. I have better things to do with my time. Whether you liked Larry or not, he added a lot of life to the forum and I enjoyed the spirited debates. The forum is no longer enjoyable and like the old soldier in General McArthur's speech, I will just fade away.

I have repeatedly warned what would happen and my warnings have gone unheeded. I plan to spend a whole lot less time here in the future. I might be gone someday for good, probably sooner than later. Good luck with the forum. Something needs to be fixed and it isn't getting fixed.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Post by hoops777 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:12 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:40 am
smectym wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:31 am
I probably have Paul Merriman confused with some other person: he’s not the guy who has generated endless investment spam articles on Marketwatch and other venues for lo these many decades past? If so I would’ve thought he was one of the sources of “noise” that it is an article of faith on this forum that we should all “tune out.”

But as I say, probably my mistake
You are not mistaken. As I said in earlier comments, the marketing may be sleazy but it is a technique proven to work with masses. Offer some magic formula for making excess returns and you'll get enough followers. As evidenced by the supporters on this thread.
All I can say is wow! You somehow have seen through all of this terrible man’s ploys to deceive,that 99 pct of investors would see simply as a different opinion from what Bogle preached.Not to mention that his ideas historically have beaten Bogle, or is that what this is about?
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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