Gold $1600 Oz - When?

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columbia
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by columbia »

Who is Mark Spiegel?
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by nisiprius »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:11 am
Forester wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:13 am If the US government wanted to hurt TIPS investors, it could simply manipulate the inflation statistics and change the inflation yardstick. I’m not going full “shadow stats” and don’t think the government is currently doing this, but I don’t think it it outside of the realm of possibility in the future.
If they wanted to fake the CPI data TIPS use, wouldn't they also need to fake the other inflation measurements that social security and the Fed itself uses, otherwise wouldn't there be such a schism between the measurements that it would cry out fakery? How many people in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics would need to be involved in this fakery scheme, anyway? Wouldn't there be whistleblowers? A lawsuit?
I certainly have to agree with Forester that it is "not outside the realm of possibility," and I also agree with Robot Monster that it would be very quickly detected and create an outcry.

There are big stakeholders in the integrity of the CPI-U and CPI-W: AARP representing Social Security recipients, unions with COLA agreements in their contracts, and, of course, foreign investors in TIPS. One method of detection is obvious: projects like the MIT Billion Prices Project, which works by extracting price data from the Web. I'm not sure what has happened with US data since 2016, at one point it seemed to be available but only for a fee. The project is measuring inflation in Argentina and working on doing it for Venezuela.

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The question, of course, which is beyond the scope of the forum, is what would happen if "the government" knew that fudging the CPI would be detected and produce an outcry but just decided to do it anyway and defy objections.
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CycloRista
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by CycloRista »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:57 am
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:33 am
Forester wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 am Disaster for the gold critics - gold soars past $1,800 to a 9 year high.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@GC.1
Wow. :shock:

Question: how long will it take for the proponents of the theory that gold's expected real return is zero to at least admit that the theory might be wrong?
There's really no limit to how long the market can irrationally drive up the price of an object. Beyond it's minor value in electronics manufacturing and other industrial processes, the value of gold is based pretty much entirely on the madness of crowds and vicissitudes of sentiment.

But gold's real return has been zero for long periods of time depending on when you bought it. Someone who purchased gold in 1980 or 2011 would still be in the red in real terms. On the other hand, returns for someone holding through the 1970s to the blow off top in 1980 would have made a lot of money.

For those of us who aren't fans of gold, the fact that it has gone up recently is hardly a disaster anymore than the rise of bitcoin or a rise in tulip bulbs would be. I wouldn't short gold any more than I would hold it. I simply do not speculate in commodities.
True.

I count myself among the very fortunate to have sold silver when the Hunt Brothers drove its price through the roof. I sold quite a number of my worst silver dollars at ~$22 each along with other silver coins picked from change. I amassed quite a bit while working in a department store cash office during high school and some of college.

I'm planning on doing the same with gold jewelry my mother had collected for years that is of no interest to my siblings or any of our kids.
columbia
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by columbia »

I amassed quite a bit while working in a department store cash office during high school and some of college.
:shock:
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester »

It will get more interesting when gold is up while stocks & bonds are down on the same day. Maybe that happened a couple of times back in March. The bond market seemed to fail @ 0.4% on the 10yr and that's with the perception of low, tamed inflation.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by All Seasons »

Almost $1,900 now.


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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by rich126 »

All Seasons wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:15 pm Almost $1,900 now.


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I was looking for a correction so I could buy more but gold and LT treasuries keep going up. With the uncertain future right now, I'd imagine things continue will go up, although you'd think a slight correction is due.

And I'm not usually a gold investor but I started buying it about a year ago. Currently I'm slowly investing more in foreign markets although it won't be that much (maybe 10%).

(I expect interest rates to stay low, and other stuff not allowed to be discussed here to continue to favor gold.)
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by GRP »

rich126 wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:38 pm
I was looking for a correction so I could buy more but gold and LT treasuries keep going up. With the uncertain future right now, I'd imagine things continue will go up, although you'd think a slight correction is due.

And I'm not usually a gold investor but I started buying it about a year ago. Currently I'm slowly investing more in foreign markets although it won't be that much (maybe 10%).

(I expect interest rates to stay low, and other stuff not allowed to be discussed here to continue to favor gold.)
Good on you for diversifying. I know of no safer way of owning volatile assets like gold, LT Treasurys, and stocks than to own them together. Those offsetting volatilities really do wonders to create a balanced portfolio.
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester »

Gold breaches $1,900 for the first time since 2011. This is a momentous day for gold investors. At gold's 2011 high the Dollar Index stood at 76, today it is 94, plus there's been a little inflation; plenty more room to run before the 2011 high is bested in real terms (approximately $2,300?).

We shouldn't be greedy but it's time to set our sights on $3,000 an ounce.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by GRP »

People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
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permport
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

GRP wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:37 am People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
+1 for diversification!
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by patrick »

Forester wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 am Disaster for the gold critics - gold soars past $1,800 to a 9 year high.
That is a unique way to look at it. "Stocks are at/near all time highs" is often used as an argument against investing in stocks, so it's rather strange to see the reverse for gold.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by All Seasons »

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$1900 and record close!!

In my opinion this gold surge is a combination of China-US tensions, coronavirus fears, and money printing.
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permport
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

GRP wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:37 am People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
I knew that it had outperformed but I didn't realize that the margin was that large. Blue line is gold and red line is US stocks.


Image


Holy moly. :shock:

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
Buy right and hold tight.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Pu239 »

Forester wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:20 am Gold breaches $1,900 for the first time since 2011. This is a momentous day for gold investors. At gold's 2011 high the Dollar Index stood at 76, today it is 94, plus there's been a little inflation; plenty more room to run before the 2011 high is bested in real terms (approximately $2,300?).

We shouldn't be greedy but it's time to set our sights on $3,000 an ounce.
Nine years is a long time to be singing the blues..."I've been down so long it looks like up to me".

Edit: correction, 8 years instead of 9.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by ChiGuy »

After reading a lot on this topic, I've come to believe that a 10% allocation to gold in my portfolio makes sense for the long term. Based on this, I assume I should just buy a gold fund, even though the price has gone up so much in recent months. Of course, I wish I had pulled the trigger back in March or several years ago.

What is the "best" gold fund today? Is it still GLD, which is the only one that I'm familiar with?
columbia
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by columbia »

permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm
Holy moly. :shock:

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
I would hope that an asset which is hoped to perform much better than equities would in fact do so, in a 20 period which starts and ends with large equity downturns and also has a third in the middle of that time period.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Ricchan »

permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm
GRP wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:37 am People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
I knew that it had outperformed but I didn't realize that the margin was that large. Blue line is gold and red line is US stocks.


Image


Holy moly. :shock:

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
I'm not sure I would say it's start date insensitive...
Image

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by GRP »

permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
Yeah, a few years either side of the Dotcom bubble leads to the same result -- gold wins. I found that pretty remarkable. It's not like cherry picking the top of the Dotcom craziness is what leads to the winning result for gold.

Either way, it's kind of amazing when the combined might of American corporations can't beat a supposedly useless lump of metal over ANY 20 year period.

Turning around that famous Warren Buffett line, American mettle was no match for the magical metal.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by GRP »

permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm
I knew that it had outperformed but I didn't realize that the margin was that large. Blue line is gold and red line is US stocks.
Holy moly. :shock:

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strength?



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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Pu239 »

Who invests for 20 year periods?
Between the idea And the reality...Between the motion And the act...Falls the Shadow - T. S. Eliot
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Ricchan
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Ricchan »

GRP wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive...
Yeah, a few years either side of the Dotcom bubble leads to the same result -- gold wins. I found that pretty remarkable. It's not like cherry picking the top of the Dotcom craziness is what leads to the winning result for gold.

Either way, it's kind of amazing when the combined might of American corporations can't beat a supposedly useless lump of metal over ANY 20 year period.

Turning around that famous Warren Buffett line, American mettle was no match for the magical metal.
Umm... are we looking at the same data?

1995 - 2015
Gold: 4.72% CAGR
US Stocks: 9.41% CAGR

1990 - 2010
Gold: 6.09% CAGR
US Stocks: 8.56% CAGR

1985 - 2005
Gold: 2.45% CAGR
US Stocks: 12.22% CAGR

1980 - 2000
Gold: -2.93% CAGR
US Stocks: 15.24% CAGR

1975 - 1995
Gold: 3.54% CAGR
US Stocks: 15.51% CAGR
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permport
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

GRP wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:28 pm
Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strength?

Possibly. I even think it's likely, but many factors impact major asset classes such as the dollar and gold. It's not really possible to ascertain the motivations of all the millions of buyers and sellers out there in the market. News outlets like CNBC always like to state a rationale for why an asset class went up or down on a given day. "Gold up on U.S-China tensions!", but there's no way to know for sure.

If I were FORCED to give an answer, I'd say dollar weakness from money printing may indeed be a pillar of gold's strength. Overall I think gold right now is just a general fear trade.

You may find it interesting to note that gold has easily surpassed all-time highs in most currencies that are not the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is really putting gold in the worst possible light and it's still pretty impressive nonetheless.
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permport
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

GRP wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:28 pm
Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strength?

Relevant to your question:

"‘Great Debasement’ will drive move to global stocks over U.S."
A torrent of fiscal and monetary stimulus to fight the effects of the coronavirus, combined with already-low interest rates, will contribute to a “Great Debasement” of the U.S. dollar in the years ahead, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/bofa-sa ... tocks.html
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester »

Record (nominal) highs! But what good is a gold bull market without a bear market in stocks & bonds. I would love gold $5,000 but with an overall flat portfolio - rebalancing into cheaper assets. Patience! :greedy
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

ChiGuy wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:22 am After reading a lot on this topic, I've come to believe that a 10% allocation to gold in my portfolio makes sense for the long term. Based on this, I assume I should just buy a gold fund, even though the price has gone up so much in recent months. Of course, I wish I had pulled the trigger back in March or several years ago.

What is the "best" gold fund today? Is it still GLD, which is the only one that I'm familiar with?
Consider AAAU or BAR (I use one or more of these). Less than twice the ER. Of course a limit order is best with ETFs like this.
Last edited by 000 on Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
dukeblue219
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by dukeblue219 »

I don't do a lot of trading in my taxable account, but when I do, it's usually a small gamble on some hunch for fun as much as anything. However, the couple hundred bucks worth of GLD JAN 2021 calls at $190 I bought back in May-ish are looking great so far.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

Gold is the only “money” I can’t use to go to buy groceries

And on top of that...
“Gold is not an investment” - John Bogle

https://youtu.be/KlhT07G8zGs

People who think gold is “going up” should buy it
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by GRP »

It's happening.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029432633

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns a developing 'capital war' between the US and China could tank the dollar and wreak havoc with the US economy

Image


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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Tortoisesque »

[Distracting animated GIF removed by admin LadyGeek. Here's the link: https://media.giphy.com/media/5mBE2MiMVFITS/giphy.gif ]
000
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:56 am Gold is the only “money” I can’t use to go to buy groceries
Can you buy groceries with Swiss Francs or Japanese Yen?
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:08 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:56 am Gold is the only “money” I can’t use to go to buy groceries
Can you buy groceries with Swiss Francs or Japanese Yen?
Yup
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:14 pm
000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:08 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:56 am Gold is the only “money” I can’t use to go to buy groceries
Can you buy groceries with Swiss Francs or Japanese Yen?
Yup
What about Gold Maple Leafs?
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by All Seasons »

Gold is at $1969 in overnight trading now. Woooah! :shock:
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
Very easily
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by All Seasons »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
You see, you uhh, I um, well. You know, the thing about stocks is that, uh, well. Um, well, you know, cash flow. Tremendous. And the thing is. Well yeah.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
Lol “easy”
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

All Seasons wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:26 pm
000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
You see, you uhh, I um, well. You know, the thing about stocks is that, uh, well. Um, well, you know, cash flow. Tremendous. And the thing is. Well yeah.
LOL
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

All Seasons wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:26 pm
000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
You see, you uhh, I um, well. You know, the thing about stocks is that, uh, well. Um, well, you know, cash flow. Tremendous. And the thing is. Well yeah.
:) :D :mrgreen:
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
I wonder which hotel they stayed at 😂
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

All Seasons wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:26 pm You see, you uhh, I um, well. You know, the thing about stocks is that, uh, well. Um, well, you know, cash flow. Tremendous. And the thing is. Well yeah.
Haha sounds like someone explaining how they achieved financial freedom from buying gold 😂
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by permport »

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:33 pm
Haha sounds like someone explaining how they achieved financial freedom from buying gold 😂
Sounds like you dodging 000's question on how to buy groceries with your VTI shares, or how you're going to get the cashier to accept Yen.
Buy right and hold tight.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by columbia »

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
Always a salient point and have any here ever directly traded gold for goods and services?
(If it’s of a prurient and/or illegal nature, please don’t tell me.)
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by RiotAct »

I pay for my groceries with St. Gaudens double-eagles alllll the time.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by flaccidsteele »

columbia wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:39 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
Always a salient point and have any here ever directly traded gold for goods and services?
(If it’s of a prurient and/or illegal nature, please don’t tell me.)
99.999% of gold buyers only want to trade it for fiat
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by cos »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
Interactive Brokers offers a debit card which can be used with taxable assets in addition to cash. In the absence of (or, at your option, in addition to) cash, the card takes out a ~2.1% APR margin loan using your taxable assets as collateral, some or all of which can be VTI. I'm not sure about gold, though.

M1 Finance offers something similar where you can have margin loans at ~2.8% APR deposited directly into your checking account, but I don't think their system is as mature or automated as IBKR's. You're also limited to 35% of your portfolio so you can't take on as much insane leverage as you can with IBKR.

For both of these options, following a purchase, you can just sell your holdings and pay back the loan with a few clicks or taps. It's the closest you can get to transacting with non-cash investments.
Last edited by cos on Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
000
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 000 »

cos wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:55 pm
000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm The irony of gold is that it’s only useful when converted into fiat 😂
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm check out libertarian summer camp (planet money) then see how easy it is to transact with gold:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... ummer-camp
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
Interactive Brokers offers a debit card which can be used with taxable assets in addition to cash. In the absence of (or, at your option, in addition to) cash, the card takes out a ~2.1% APR margin loan using your taxable assets as collateral, some or all of which can be VTI. I'm not sure about gold, though.

M1 Finance offers something similar where you can have margin loans at ~2.8% APR deposited directly into your checking account, but I don't think their system is as mature or automated as IBKR's. You're also limited to 35% of your portfolio so you can't take on as much insane leverage as you can with IBKR.

For both of these options, following a purchase, you can just sell your holdings and pay back the loan with a few clicks or taps. It's the closest you can get to transacting with non-cash assets.
Thanks for the info. But then I'm not really buying it with VTI or a gold ETF. I'm buying it with a USD loan.
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