How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

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willthrill81
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by willthrill81 »

lazyday wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:09 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:32 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:21 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm
Crashes always end. It’s never different this time
I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true.
US crashes always end. It’s never different this time

In the US it’s always true
“There’s always plenty of food and never any predators. Not one of us have ever been hurt since the beginning of time.” said the Turkey on November 1.

Anyone who looks at Japan's stock market from 1/1/1990 or 12/1989 to today and uses some imagination understands that stocks are risky, even if you hold for decades.
:thumbsup

Stock markets have gone to zero and have also gone nowhere for decades. Bonds aren't a panacea either since they suffer from similar risks.

All roads carry risk.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Elysium
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Elysium »

Random Walker wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:36 pm I’m 57 years old and started investing for real in about 1996. I frequently tell people that between the tech bubble/crash 1996-2002, the financial crisis 2007-2008, and the real estate bubble/crash 2006-2008, that I’ve seen a lifetime’s worth of investing history in a decade. I’ve accumulate over the years, am closer to retirement, and am way more worried about losses. I’m curious how these big market events have affected others? I’ve become keenly aware that one would need to make 100% to recover from a 50% decline and make 50% to recover from a 33% decline.
For these reasons I’ve taken on the goal of hyperdiversification in addition to increasing the bond allocation with age. I diversify with factors, geographies, styles, alternatives, and safe bonds.
I wonder if many saw the “V Shaped Recovery” after 2008 and assume all recoveries will be so easy? Just stay the TSM course, or die others make adaptations?

Dave
Equity markets are risky, there will be crashes and panics, that is why there is a premium for investing in equities. This knowledge is what we need to have even before we invest in equities, once armed with the history of the bubbles and panics worldwide over five hundred years, we are prepared to face it when it comes our way.

Here is a list of crashes and panics worldwide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ar_markets

Once you learn about the Tulip Bulb mania, the South Sea bubble, the Great Depression, and the Japanese stock market history, you are prepared.

Since I knew this history, I was expecting the real estate crisis and financial crisis of 2006-08 and 2008, it didn't go as low as I expected, about 50% while I was expecting it go as low as 80%, and a slower recovery over 10 years, but we had a quick recovery, so much that by 2010 there was no trace of it.

That hasn't changed anything for me, because I am still expecting equities could drop 80% in a serious crisis, that doesn't prevent me from invested in equities heavily. That is why there is a premium. If there wasn't the risk of 80% losses, there would not have been gains of over 200% in the last decade in S&P 500.

Investing in stock markets worldwide historically hasn't been always as positive as investing in US Equities in the late part of 20th century and early part of 21st century, notwithstanding these intermediate crashes. Consider that London Stock exchange was in existence since 1500, and average returns were possibly anywhere from 5% to 7% (unverified), with massive run ups in 1800 followed by massive crashes. The UK FTSE 100 has gained a respectful 6.7% including dividends over the last 25 years or so. The S&P 500 gained over 11% since 1985. This is not expected to happen always, you may not see returns like this in US market over the next 50 to 100 years. It could be similar to to 5% to 7% returns like world wide, or even lower.

What could we do? Stop investing in equities, or go after high cost complex alternative investments with even lower returns and lower chance of success? go into bonds and cash with expected returns below inflation?

None of those are good alternatives. So we keep investing in equities and keep expectations lower. We keep a rainy day fund allocation, and a comfortable fixed income allocation as our safe money that we cannot afford to lose. The rest is risk we take for higher growth, and if history is of any indication, it has higher success rate than any other alternative. No guarantees obviously.
Last edited by Elysium on Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
MnD
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by MnD »

dru808 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:14 pm
MnD wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:10 pm The US-led dot.com crash 2001-02 along with both employer plan and my favorite fund family rolling out international funds during that period influenced me to go global market cap on equity and I've never looked back. That's about the only major change I've made to my IPS 1986 to date.
Seeing what happened to several of my closest neighbors losing homes to foreclosure or forced sales of homes and autos to drastically downsize during and in the aftermath of 2007/8 reinforced my existing views what were appropriate levels of savings, investing and debt and prioritizing financial independence - but didn't really change anything.
Curious, what we’re your losses like in 2000-2002 compared to your previous allocation? I’m assuming you were all us?
I moved to global market cap in early-mid 2001. That move was break-even or positive from 2001 through 2013 versus a US-only equity portfolio.
2014 to date it has lagged but I never expected a truly diversified portfolio to outperform one with single-country risk.
Summary here...
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=296936&p=4879195#p4879195
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by invest4 »

2001-2002: 30 years old. Diligent saver, but didn't invest in tech stocks (but vividly recall a friend who did and got clobbered). No impact to my mindset.

2007-2008: 36 years old. $300K in 401k...cut in half. I didn't look at statements for months...although one had a good idea just from watching what was happening. I did not experience a job loss and we were in an equity position in our home which was purchased in 2000. Neighborhood was hit hard with foreclosures (typical mid-200K production houses in the emerging burbs with young families). One can never really know, but I think the fact we were stable during that period likely contributed to 'staying the course'. Also, I felt I had such a long way to go in my career and investing...what other choice did I really have except to keep plodding forward? However...

Today: 47 years old. Investments have grown to $1.4M and I find myself more uncomfortable with the prospect of significant losses. I attribute this to my age (not really old, but have a much greater sense of how quickly it is all passing by), making it through these expensive college years and being able to navigate the potentially choppy career waters as I move to 50 and beyond. I have an allocation to bonds for the first time in the past year and shifted more to CDs, etc. than I have ever had. Some of it is probably good (portfolio simpler now and starting a bond allocation is reasonable I think), while some of the other feels less so (CDs which could instead be invested in more equities / bonds). Although I made no changes during or after 2007-2008, I remember the feeling of not being able to make sense of what was happening with housing, etc. (could not have dreamed what the banks had actually done to themselves). I have a similar feeling these days. Nonetheless, saving continues and with the help of the wonderful people / sage advice on this forum, will get it sorted and be fine.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by 7eight9 »

When the first time you invest in a 401k is 2006 and the first time you open a brokerage account is 2008 (because ING CD rates were below 3.0% at the time and you wanted to make more money) you become really negative on the stock market really fast. At least with bonds and cash (CD, money market, high yield accounts etc.) you don't see your net worth evaporating before your eyes. Sure, the US market recovered (this time). There is no guarantee that it will the next time in an investor's time frame. Pity the Japanese investor who has waited decades to get back to even and still is down. No reason that won't be the fate of the US investor after the next crash.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Dottie57 wrote:What was plan B in 2008?
Dottie57:

"If you cannot afford to lose you must get out of the stock market."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.”
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by sycamore »

dru808 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:57 pm
garlandwhizzer wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:21 pm Important to remember that if the market drops by 50%, your bonds at minimum hold their value as stocks collapse so what used to be 60/40 when it started is now 30/40, a bond heavy portfolio with a higher percentage of safe assets going forward. It works as long as you can make living expenses with a liquid emergency fund or other totally secure income stream until the market rebounds. Anything can happen but in the US since 1929 it has never taken more than 6 years for stocks to recover from their bear market loses with dividends reinvested and in most cases 3 years is adequate. The GR lasted 18 months and was followed by a V shaped equity recovery.

Garland Whizzer

I hadn’t thought of the aa changing. So, when do you rebalance or how often during a crash? How often does a balanced fund say Wellington or life strategy moderate growth rebalance in a recession?
dru808, not sure if you got your question answered, so here's what I know:

For Life Strategy rebalancing, I think they do it daily, e.g., start with incoming or outgoing fund flows due to purchases and sales; then sell investments above target (like bonds) to buy other investments that are below target (like stocks). See https://obliviousinvestor.com/interview ... ent-funds/.

I don't know about Wellington. They're an actively managed fund with some leeway allowed in terms of how much stock they hold, so maybe they "let it ride" up or down until they reach some threshold.

Many bogleheads keep their own portfolio rebalanced by first directing new funds (like from a paycheck) to the below target asset. During a big crash, that may not be enough to keep to one's AA, so they'll exchange from bonds to stocks (usually in a tax-deferred account, to avoid taxable transactions).
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Dottie57 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:33 am
Dottie57 wrote:What was plan B in 2008?
Dottie57:

"If you cannot afford to lose you must get out of the stock market."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.”
I thought there might have been a more viable plan b. I sold (30k) a year of expenses from stock fund. It made me feel a bit better. But I also upped the percentage of stock purchased in 401k. Kind of crazy to do both at same time.

I came out of GFC better than fine .. mostly staying the course really worked - I had 10 years of work left in me.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by grettman »

I was investing during these periods and it taught me that I should expect a 50% decline at any point in time.

Therefore, I must be able to withstand that much a decline.

This experience hasn't changed my AA. I am still very aggressive. 90%/10%. Shooting for a paid off house. I will also have a FED pension so that helps.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Mr.BB »

Dottie57 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:41 pm Worked full time until 2018. I was absolutely terrified that there would be a depression diring 2008/2009. Gritted my teeth and kept investing.

The interesting question is whether this same scenario could come again.
Absolutely it will come again. That is why history always repeats itself, people never learn. The question is "when".
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
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steve roy
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by steve roy »

I made my mistakes in the 200-2002 equity downturn (I sold our long-held VG S&P 500 Index Fund.). Should have held onto it and bought more, but I wasn't that bright.

Happily, I didn't make the same mistake in 2008. Now, starting our 4th year of retirement we have a 30/70 portfolio, a good cash flow (two pensions, SS, and RMDs) and sufficient funds to see us through.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Carol88888 »

I escaped the 2000-2002 collapse because I was totally out of stocks. It felt great. I was smug. Got back in 2003. Thought I had the market figured out.

Then came 2007-2009. Caught totally flatfooted. 100% in stocks. My stocks got clobbered. I had no cash to buy. Completely demoralized.

My takeaway: One success in market timing is a dangerous thing. It leads to hubris. As Taylor and Bogle have pointed out numerous times, they don't know anyone who has done it successfully multiple times.

My one successful market timing was pure luck not skill.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by pyld76 »

01-02 takeaway was that staying the course works, but simultaneously that fixed income has a place in my accumulation portfolio.

07-08 made me significantly rethink savings rate and almost any other measure to combat sequence of returns risk.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by LilyFleur »

1789 wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:11 am
LilyFleur wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:00 pm I lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2008, in company stock. A close family member was a CFP and had studied my company. This person advised me to hang on, and not to lose any sleep, explaining that one invests in the stock market for the long run, and there are ups and downs. I slept just fine after that. A few years ago, I was severely under-employed. The year before I retired I would work my thankless job, and come home to sometimes see that my stock earnings in one day had exceeded my monthly or even my yearly earnings from my job. After I retired, I began worrying about the effect of tariffs on my stock, and I diversified to an age appropriate, Bogleheads AA. The stock has subsequently gone down in value and I think I kept only 3% of my portfolio in that stock. I am grateful.

Don't be like me. :mrgreen:
Thanks for sharing. Another example why one should say "NO" to holding company stock.
It is risky. My company stock doubled in recent years and has given me a comfortable retirement. I am now diversified, though.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by flaccidsteele »

lazyday wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:09 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:32 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:21 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm
Crashes always end. It’s never different this time
I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true.
US crashes always end. It’s never different this time

In the US it’s always true
“There’s always plenty of food and never any predators. Not one of us have ever been hurt since the beginning of time.” said the Turkey on November 1.

Anyone who looks at Japan's stock market from 1/1/1990 or 12/1989 to today and uses some imagination understands that stocks are risky, even if you hold for decades.
You can enjoy your Japanese turkeys

I’ll keep my low fee US equity index

It’s never different this time
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by flaccidsteele »

TheLaughingCow wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:19 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:32 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:21 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm
Crashes always end. It’s never different this time
I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true.
US crashes always end. It’s never different this time

In the US it’s always true
Nothing lasts forever. Someday the total value of all US equities will go to 0. Nobody knows when that day will be. But it will happen.
Irrelevant

Because everyone will have bigger problems than the US stock market

Until then the US market always recovers

It’s never different this time

Rinse and repeat

Like the past downturns, the next will make me richer still

Too easy
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by flaccidsteele »

watchnerd wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:10 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:51 pm People have been telling me forever how it’s different this time. I ignore them. US markets always recover. It’s never different this time
The problem is that "always" can be about a decade.
Ironically I’ve made more money the longer the downturn

If the credit crisis didn’t end so soon, I would be richer today

Hard to take advantage of “V” shaped recoveries

The larger the window of opportunity, the better

A 10 year downturn would be a dream come true
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by btq96r »

I wasn't aware enough to see what was happening in 2001-2002, but I remember 2007-2008. I was in Iraq, and after the deployment, I would be leaving the Army. Walking away from a stable, secure, paycheck and into the rubble that was February 2009...if I knew what I knew now having studied the Great Recession as a hobby, I would have been far more worried. But the principles back then were, and remained the same...be ready to put in the work with your brain or your hands and back, whichever carries you further, or a combination of both. And get ready to be humbled for a while, in times like that, any stability is of value.

The biggest takeaway was to have that emergency fund in place, and be ready to stretch it. I didn't have one beyond a few paychecks back then, and I was damned lucky to get a job that started as soon as my Army pay stopped depositing. Some folks say 3-6 months worth of expenses, but I go with six months of salary. That way, if I keep living below my means, and clamp down a good bit, I can last a good bit longer. Market losses and job prospects tend to rise or sink together, so you need to be ready for both. I hit lightning once, I'm not counting on it happening again.

But in 2007-2009, I also learned there is a hard deck to how bad things will get in the United States if we have that level of control. As long as we're the economic power that we are, the government and central bank will always have the means to prop things up. The value of broad index funds showed itself when the free fall was arrested. Individual stock pickers and crazy speculative investors may or may not have kept afloat, but index funds held the line. Buy, hold, reinvest was validated as a strategy in the harshest conditions of our lifetime.

So, be ready to go it with a robust emergency fund, knowing that keeping it out of the market is a loss worth taking for security. Then keep the rest where it is. But that shouldn't be too radical a strategy for anyone here.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Marbella »

btq96r wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:03 pm I wasn't aware enough to see what was happening in 2001-2002, but I remember 2007-2008. I was in Iraq, and after the deployment, I would be leaving the Army. Walking away from a stable, secure, paycheck and into the rubble that was February 2009...if I knew what I knew now having studied the Great Recession as a hobby, I would have been far more worried. But the principles back then were, and remained the same...be ready to put in the work with your brain or your hands and back, whichever carries you further, or a combination of both. And get ready to be humbled for a while, in times like that, any stability is of value.

The biggest takeaway was to have that emergency fund in place, and be ready to stretch it. I didn't have one beyond a few paychecks back then, and I was damned lucky to get a job that started as soon as my Army pay stopped depositing. Some folks say 3-6 months worth of expenses, but I go with six months of salary. That way, if I keep living below my means, and clamp down a good bit, I can last a good bit longer. Market losses and job prospects tend to rise or sink together, so you need to be ready for both. I hit lightning once, I'm not counting on it happening again.

But in 2007-2009, I also learned there is a hard deck to how bad things will get in the United States if we have that level of control. As long as we're the economic power that we are, the government and central bank will always have the means to prop things up. The value of broad index funds showed itself when the free fall was arrested. Individual stock pickers and crazy speculative investors may or may not have kept afloat, but index funds held the line. Buy, hold, reinvest was validated as a strategy in the harshest conditions of our lifetime.

So, be ready to go it with a robust emergency fund, knowing that keeping it out of the market is a loss worth taking for security. Then keep the rest where it is. But that shouldn't be too radical a strategy for anyone here.

Great post.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by WildBill »

Howdy

1- Financial panics have similar characteristics and asset prices affected by financial crises have some common and predictable characteristics and trajectories. A market crisis is one of the few opportunities to market time to your advantage , because you can observe and predict behavior. In a panic over leveraged speculators have to sell quality assets because that is all they can sell. The junk they have been speculating on is essentially worthless, so they have to sell quality assets to raise funds. It takes patience and equanimity to capitalize on opportunities. Check out Manias, Panics and Crashes by Dr Kindelberger and Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor for well written analyses.

2 - Tax loss harvesting is a real thing and perhaps the only true free lunch in investing. In June 2009 I had an asset base that had lost about 55% of its value from a year before, but due to periodic TLH I had tax loss carry forwards that have reduced my taxes substantially ever since.

3 There are the possibilities of real sales on high quality assets eg Corning at $1 a share in 2002, DuPont at $12 in 2009. Stock up with what is on sale.

But they are scary.

Good luck

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by firebirdparts »

Went through both, and Y2K was much worse for me than 2008. 10 times worse, even though I didn't have much money to lose. I always tell young guys I've lost half my net worth twice.

In Y2K, I did not really look at my investments for a while. My wife and I had various accounts that were abandoned, closed, or simply neglected. In 2008, I was fully invested all the way down, and lost a couple of years salary, but I was very aware that it was a buying opportunity. There wasn't anything to do but stay 100% equities. I never had any doubts at all. Now, am I crazy? I don't know.

What I learned from it is that emotionally it's hard for me to stay engaged when I'm losing a lot of money. I try to use myself as an indicator.
A fool and your money are soon partners
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by RadAudit »

Those two events led to further and successive reevaluations of my risk tolerance and AAs.

I'm now going on 73 with a 50 / 50 AA. The next step down will be an AA of 40 / 60, if I have to, I suppose. Hoping I don't get there too soon.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by JakeyLee »

GerryL wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:31 pm I decided to Embrace My Ignorance.
I didn't know what I could do that would be any better than what I was already doing, so I just kept investing. I did reduce the number of times I looked at my account balances each month, but other than that, no change.
Oh boy. This was me to a tee. I've wanted so bad to sell, diversify, anything during those aforementioned markets/years. My analysis paralysis just kept me pot committed. I'd go weeks and months without looking at my accounts. I just kept buying like a madman every single month. Could I do it again? Most certainly. Who knew my "paralysis" would end up serving me so well all these years later(?)
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:33 am
Dottie57 wrote:What was plan B in 2008?
Dottie57:

"If you cannot afford to lose you must get out of the stock market."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.”
I agree. We had an asset allocation and stayed the course. Did not bother chasing it or adding small caps, factors, precious metals, etc.

Total Market Index funds work.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by abuss368 »

We also learned to tune out the "investment porn" as Taylor has so often described.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by abuss368 »

REITs held up well and were up during the tech bubble bursting.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by 7eight9 »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:55 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:33 am
Dottie57 wrote:What was plan B in 2008?
Dottie57:

"If you cannot afford to lose you must get out of the stock market."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.”
I agree. We had an asset allocation and stayed the course. Did not bother chasing it or adding small caps, factors, precious metals, etc.

Total Market Index funds work.
I wonder if Jack Bogle would have felt differently if he was Japanese. Seems like the Nikkei peak (circa 1989) hasn't been reclaimed. The Japanese stock market, at that time, was the largest in the world.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Dottie57 »

Mr.BB wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:56 am
Dottie57 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:41 pm Worked full time until 2018. I was absolutely terrified that there would be a depression diring 2008/2009. Gritted my teeth and kept investing.

The interesting question is whether this same scenario could come again.
Absolutely it will come again. That is why history always repeats itself, people never learn. The question is "when".
I mean problems with CDOs, swaps , mbs, and ratings companies giving inaccurate ratings.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by dogagility »

Those events reinforced the ideas that markets recover and volatility does not equate to risk.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by hudson »

I learned that I no longer wanted to own any stocks.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Wind_Reaver »

How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy?
2001-03: Provided the investing motivation and determination to become financially educated and avoid existing as other's profit center. Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds was revolutionary.

2007-08: Reinforced the "keep calm" and "maintain integrity" necessity as the workplace devolved all around. Hammered home the "stay the course" mantra while the corporate collapses continued.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by perl »

I was 100% stocks both in 2000-02 and 2007-09. I was young, and I thought my risk tolerance was high.

I learned that my risk tolerance is even higher than I thought. I enjoyed watching the turmoil. I found it easy to stay the course and rebalance (between international, small, value, and large) and keep adding money. I was entertained by a 50% drop in my portfolio. I've since increased my tilts but now also include bonds because I am older.

When I say that I enjoy down markets, people here look at me like I have two heads. But it's true. Market volatility is why we get the big bucks. I think that fundamentally I'm not emotionally connected to the amount of money that I have.

Market crashes are a wonderful opportunity to practice nonattachment.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by flaccidsteele »

perl wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:52 amWhen I say that I enjoy down markets, people here look at me like I have two heads. But it's true. Market volatility is why we get the big bucks.
+1

Counterintuitive but true
perl wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:52 amMarket crashes are a wonderful opportunity to practice nonattachment.
+1

This is tougher for me than sitting through a downturn
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by badbreath »

When 08, 09 happened I would look at my statements and say that's not good. I was at the time 100% stocks, but I keep investing 15% into my 401k.

Seems to have worked out well in the long run to just stand there and do nothing :beer
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by bogglizer »

flaccidsteele wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:23 am
perl wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:52 amWhen I say that I enjoy down markets, people here look at me like I have two heads. But it's true. Market volatility is why we get the big bucks.
+1

Counterintuitive but true
perl wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:52 amMarket crashes are a wonderful opportunity to practice nonattachment.
+1

This is tougher for me than sitting through a downturn
(+1)^2

In 2009, I took on more debt and invested in residential real estate rentals. Never played much with my retirement stash, though, other than rebalancing.

I also root for earthquakes, hurricanes, and forest fires.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by StormShadow »

My lessons learned...
The benefits of including bonds in your portfolio. Why you need an emergency fund.
How to not panic/make rash decisions based upon “noise” from wall street.
My risk tolerance back then was quite high when I had a relatively small portfolio, still in school and single.
My risk tolerance should be (and now is) considerably less now that the portfolio has grown and I’m married with a kiddo.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by SandysDad »

Random Walker wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:36 pm I’m 57 years old ....I’ve accumulate over the years, am closer to retirement, and am way more worried about losses. I’m
It’s not just the wisdom from your experience that has changed. It’s your risk tolerance due to your impending retirement.

I would tell a 25 year old with a sold job and lots of opportunity that 100% stocks with an emergency fund is ok. I would tell a 57 year old about to retire they could potentially wreck their finances permanently.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by carolinaman »

I saw 2001/2002 coming because I managed tech for a large organization and I saw first hand the lunacy going on with tech investments and valuations. I reduced my equities and avoided tech and did not lose much during that time. I did not see 2007/2008 coming and got hammered like most people. I hung in there for a long time but finally sold some equities, mostly energy and international in first quarter 2009. Based upon a lot of Boglehead responses to various threads, I believe a lot of people do not realize how precarious the US and world financial markets were during that time. It was really scary and the closed thing we have seen to the great depressions of the 1930s. There was no guarantee that markets would bounce back like they did but fortunately the markets have recovered and continue to do well.

I found Bogleheads in 2011 and adopted a simple portfolio consisting of low cost index funds that fit my AA which I will hold thru think and thin. What influenced me the most is to have an AA that I will hold during severe downturns like the 2007/2008.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Chicken Little »

2000

I was young and starting out. 100% equity. Knew it was ridiculous but tried to ride it all the same. Lost a little money, learned invaluable lesson.

2008

More on the table. Knew it was ridiculous. All index funds with relatively conservative asset allocation by age. No reason to do anything (couple insignificant side-bets on leveraged ETF daily trades that I won - just wanted to think I was smart).

Now

Know it's ridiculous (central bank bubble - get your cue cards ready, want to beat everybody to the water cooler). All index funds in tax advantaged. CDs, short-term treasuries, iBonds, EE bonds, money market for rest. A few points more than age-in-bonds in fixed-income (exceptionally conservative these days?). Not worried about decline in market. Will always rotate between 60/40 and 40/60 from here on out. Pretty much however I see fit. If there's never another recession, I'm fine. If there is, I'll rotate accordingly. If I miss-time anything, it won't matter. My financial independence (by weight) is now determined by;

1. Income/Savings rate (50%)
2. Expenses/spending (40%)
3. Investment returns (10%)

That's the main lesson, not to rely too heavily on markets.

For a hobby, I do macro-breakdowns;

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=301724&p=4977154#p4977154
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by abuss368 »

It is almost like Jack Bogle always said "invest you must". With that there is risk. You can not put your money under a mattress.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

bogglizer wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:40 amI also root for earthquakes, hurricanes, and forest fires.
bogglizer:

Are you serious? If so, please explain.

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "People matter, and caring about the human beings with whom we serve--and whom we serve — must be the soul of any institution worth its salt."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by maximumlawman »

I started investing in the mid-90s. It was only a little bit -- retirement and a tiny taxable mutual fund account, to which I automatically added something like $100 a month (basically what I could afford at the time). I knew enough to know that I wanted to fund my retirement, that there would be some advantage to having some capital outside of a retirement account, and that I should get started early. But I basically bought whatever mutual funds Money Magazine said were the best that year.

By 2001-02, I a better paying job, but I also had a lot more expenses (two kids). Nonetheless, we continued to pour as much as possible into retirement. (Spouse and I have always been lucky to work at places with good retirement savings options.) And we kept upping our monthly automatic deposit into our taxable account to what felt like just past the limit of what we could afford. By that point, I had read more and was turning to broad-based index funds, but I still had some sector funds (including some that were actively managed).

I wasn't really happy with 2001-2002 and what it did to our balances, but I figured it was all paper gains and paper losses anyway. And because my kids had recently been born, that was a moment when I thought we should invest in 529s for their college. I gulped a bit putting a big chunk of money into a down market, but I figured that if it turned around we would have bought low with the potential of selling high. Our investments then, plus steady investments through the years into the 529s, have meant that our kids now go to expensive private colleges and we don't have to tap any of our other money for that. So the lesson I drew from that was to keep investing through the dips.

In the next few years, we kept increasing our monthly investments as our income rose. We were still investing a lot of our taxable account in sector-specific funds, one of which was an REIT fund. (I wasn't thinking at all about tax efficiency or anything like that at that point.) The REIT fund went up like crazy during the mid-2000s, and at some point I started to really worry (without too much analysis) that it was rising too quickly. I sold it all and put it into something like an S&P fund. When the real estate market crashed, I realized I had profited a lot from the real estate bubble. The lesson I took from that was not that I was so smart in timing the market. It was that I had made a lot of money through dumb luck, and the next time it was as likely that my luck would run the other way and I would lose my shirt. So I started reading a lot more about asset allocation, diversification, etc., which led me to the hold-steady-and-buy-the-market approach I've been using roughly ever since. Having lived through 2001-2002, I wasn't too concerned that the market would recover after 2007-2008, and I knew I didn't have any massive expenses (at least expenses for which I hadn't set aside money) immediately on the horizon.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Chicken Little »

flaccidsteele wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:36 pmCrashes always end. It’s never different this time.
Not useful.

If what you mean is there will always be a "V-shaped recovery" in US markets, that would be useful (if true).

Other than that, it's always different;

1. Tech Bubble
2. Housing Bubble
3. Central Bank Bubble (debt to NIRP to helicopter).

Except that I'm of the school that these are all one ongoing event, #3, so it isn't different?

Very confusing.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by dcabler »

58 year old. I started investing in the mid/late 80's when I first heard of these instruments called "mutual funds". It was about that time that my company started a 401K. I had started working after college just a couple of years before that and was paying off student loans and a car loan, but getting raises and just putting things into a savings account - interest rates were still decent then and I knew I eventually wanted to move from apartment life to a house at some point.

Anyway, starting off with the 401K and whatever info I could get at the time in a non-internet world. Only managed funds were available and I really new nothing about asset allocation. So picked whatever had most consistently outperformed over the previous years and just got on with life, increasing my with-holdings by about 2/3 of my annual raises each year. Opened up a Schwab account at about that time and played around with some stocks, but never had much in there. Met my future wife and got married in 1990. I had more savings than her by far, but within a year, we bought our house (still in it). Just kept on with what we were doing and not paying a lot of attention. Also in the 1990's, I opened up a taxable mutual fund account at Fidelity. We were both maxing out our 401Ks by then, but pretty naïve about what we were doing, but still managed to do quite well. Sometimes it's OK to be lucky.

Basically sleep-walked through the 2001/2 downturn. Literally - we had a kid in 2000 and that focused most of our non-work energy. Then 2008 rolled around. Never lost my job, but by about mid year, two of my colleagues who had advisors had already pulled out of the market and were parked. Neither had any bonds and both told me that they pulled out probably about 10% off the highs. Of course they never mentioned the AUM fees they were paying all along. At that point, I'm nearly all stock and I'm watching things drop and drop. At around October, I capitulated and sold and stopped my 401K contributions - pretty close to the bottom. Immediately started reading everything I could get my hands on regarding asset allocation, so-called "lazy portfolios" and the like. A month later, I was back in, having realized what I had done wasn't exactly optimal, but at least with carry-over losses that would be in place for quite a number of years and with a stock/bond portfolio that I could live with. Continued to learn, eventually found BH and adopted many of the principles, especially the low-cost index principles. Not a 3 funder, not even close, but happy with my AA and somewhere between 1 and 3 years from retirement.

So, yes, 2007/8 definitely influenced my investing philosophy, greatly, and set me on a course for further learning..

Cheers,
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Nowizard »

Not at all then, but looking back is painful if it does not include what has happened since.

Tim
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by flaccidsteele »

Chicken Little wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:51 am
flaccidsteele wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:36 pmCrashes always end. It’s never different this time.
Not useful.

If what you mean is there will always be a "V-shaped recovery" in US markets, that would be useful (if true).

Other than that, it's always different;

1. Tech Bubble
2. Housing Bubble
3. Central Bank Bubble (debt to NIRP to helicopter).

Except that I'm of the school that these are all one ongoing event, #3, so it isn't different?

Very confusing.
Irrelevant if confusing or not useful to you

Only matters because it’s useful to me

US markets always recover

It’s never different this time
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Chicken Little »

flaccidsteele wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:51 amUS markets always recover
Over what time frame?
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Iowa David »

Independent George wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:38 pm The biggest lesson was that I needed to hold more cash. I could live with my retirement accounts being down by 50%, but the fear of job loss was what kept me up at night.
This!

I was only 6 years into the professional world (2007-2008) and did not have much invested so I didn't feel the pain and was too ignorant about investing to know the difference.

The biggest thing I noticed was how fragile job security was. Companies stopped spending money, budgets were frozen and all planned projects were placed on hold.

If you work in a world where you either sell products or services or manage/deliver this work - once the well starts to become dry, a lot of people get thirsty really quick.

So my lesson was to payoff as much as the mortgage as possible, have 6-9 months of living expenses set aside and to constantly be keeping your professional network groomed so that when the market does correct itself, you are hopefully in a better position to get back on your feet.

Job loss is my biggest fear because of the accelerated affect it will have on draining your emergency fund and the bigger impact of not being able to continue to contribute to retirement and other savings goals.
"Just a 1 percent difference in expenses makes an 18 percent difference in returns when compounded over 20 years." The Boglehead's Guide to Investing
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Cyclesafe »

Blessedly, I was unconscious during both downturns. I was already retired in 2000 and had shifted company stock into equity mutual funds - mostly index funds. I watched my portfolio tank, but did nothing. Too busy with life, I guess.

In 2007, I only noticed something wrong when I saw new BMW's at the dealership tagged with obscene mark downs. That woke me up, but I still did nothing. And it didn't occur to me to sell.

When I joined Bogelheads and internalized our tenets, I wrote an IPS and reduced my AA to something that at the time seemed rational. But I have not rebalanced since.

These experiences, however, taught me to respect the possible regret of forgoing opportunities to "take money off the table" when it needs to be spent for some purpose now. For example, I recently converted to Roth a tax bracket limited amount from my t-IRA, paying taxes with outside t-IRA equity. I respect that I would feel awful if I waited and instead chose to use fixed for that purpose after equity had declined. Not financially rational, of course, because that consumed equity could also have gone up. Weighing the two, however, I'm happier now doing what I have already done. And I can live with, and forgive myself for, it having been in hindsight, possibly a bad decision.

The two crashes (plus the 1987 one) taught me that yes, US equity markets have roared back, but does one really believe that the US is run so well that this will always be the case? Arguably better than other options, I grant you, but I just don't have the intestinal fortitude (nor, fortunately, the need) to make that bet.
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Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Post by Valuethinker »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:37 am
bogglizer wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:40 amI also root for earthquakes, hurricanes, and forest fires.
bogglizer:

Are you serious? If so, please explain.

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "People matter, and caring about the human beings with whom we serve--and whom we serve — must be the soul of any institution worth its salt."
Taylor

Wise words.

Traditionally large disasters lead to a "hard market" amongst insurers. Higher rates lead to higher future profits.

However as the hurricanes and tropical storms have become more violent and more frequent and events like the California and Australian wildfires more frequent and of greater scale, the market seems to be punch drunk. It cannot reprice risk fast enough.

I believe Warren Buffett has commented upon this.

Also as interest rates are now at all time historic lows, hedge fund capital has flowed into the reinsurance industry, with more capacity leading to softer rates.

This just to provide a financial business context to the comment.
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