ETF to Hold for 50 Years

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travelogue
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ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by travelogue » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am

If you had to pick an ETF to hold in trust for 50 years for a person who is currently a teenager, what would it be? Volatility doesn’t matter, as no one will be tracking the performance. It’s sitting in a figurative black box. Dividends would be reinvested. Let’s assume it’s a taxable account so tax drag matters.

I’m thinking VT would be my choice.

If you could pick three ETFs, but no rebalancing is allowed, would you pick something different?

Living Free
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Living Free » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:03 am

VTI and VXUS (vanguard total US and total international stock index ETFs)

DB2
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by DB2 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:05 am

VT hands down.

vu8
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by vu8 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:06 am

VT not even blinking twice

RadAudit
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by RadAudit » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:06 am

travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am
I’m thinking VT would be my choice.
Well, since I don't have a clue how the world markets will do over the next 24 hours - much less the next 50 years - I'd say it's as good of a choice as you could make under the circumstances.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

columbia
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by columbia » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:08 am

ACWI, URTH, VOO, VT and VTI would all be fine choices.

rascott
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by rascott » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:09 am

IJS.....

MotoTrojan
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:11 am

Equal parts VIOV, FNDC, and EDV without rebalancing would be fine by me. 50 years is a long time, I’d take my chances that risk factors will persist.

am
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by am » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am

Upro and tmf triple leveraged sp500 long treasury strategy. Might look in 50 years and not believe your eyes.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:59 am

Completely unknowable. Cannot fathom making a 50 year investment decision that doesn't allow for modification.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

MotoTrojan
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:03 pm

am wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am
Upro and tmf triple leveraged sp500 long treasury strategy. Might look in 50 years and not believe your eyes.
Without rebalancing I agree you might not believe your eyes when you realize the S&P500 alone would’ve been better off.

lostdog
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by lostdog » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:10 pm

VT for sure.
Taxable: VLCAX and VFWAX || Tax Deferred: VTWAX

maj
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by maj » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:11 pm

vt
or LifeStrategy Growth Fund.

Workable Goblin
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Workable Goblin » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:35 pm

travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am
I’m thinking VT would be my choice.
Pretty good choice. One of the iShares asset allocation ETFs (AOA, AOK, etc.) might also be pretty reasonable, because they're cheating, basically: the equivalent of a three-ish fund portfolio in one ETF.

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jhfenton
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by jhfenton » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:44 pm

Definitely, VT. Our 17-year-old started his first job in November, and he's going to save half of his earnings in a Roth. VT was the clear choice for a single investment.

I would choose the same in a taxable account.

The "without rebalancing" criterion for the three-fund question makes it a pointless exercise. I'd stick with VT in that case.

Steadfast
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Steadfast » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:59 pm

Another vote for VT.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are.

22twain
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by 22twain » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm

RadAudit wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:06 am
ACWI, URTH, VOO, VT and VTI
rascott wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:09 am
IJS.....
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:11 am
Equal parts VIOV, FNDC, and EDV without rebalancing
am wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am
Upro and tmf
jhfenton wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:44 pm
Definitely, VT
A real barrage of ticker-speak here. :shock:
My investing princiPLEs do not include absolutely preserving princiPAL.

caklim00
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by caklim00 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm

50/50 viov/vss

I use avdv and iscf for Intl small and DFA EM Value but we know the vanguard funds will still be around in some form in 50 years

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firebirdparts
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:16 pm

Nobody for QQQ?
A fool and your money are soon partners

lazyday
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by lazyday » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:30 pm

am wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am
Upro and tmf triple leveraged sp500 long treasury strategy. Might look in 50 years and not believe your eyes.
Probably just some cash in the account, no shares.

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jhfenton
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by jhfenton » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:32 pm

22twain wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm
jhfenton wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:44 pm
Definitely, VT
A real barrage of ticker-speak here. :shock:
In fairness, I was the 7th person to name VT/Vanguard Total World Stock as my choice. I always define my tickers when I am the first to reference a fund.

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305pelusa
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by 305pelusa » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:38 pm

Total world (VT). No question.

hdas
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[Deleted]

Post by hdas » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:40 pm

[Deleted]
Last edited by hdas on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
....

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backofbeyond
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by backofbeyond » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:45 pm

If you had 50 years, I'm assuming it's money you don't need until then and probably not that much to put in it, so I'd swing for the fence.

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anil686
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by anil686 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:54 pm

Total World (VT) - I think would be a good choice - JMO though...

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JamesSFO
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by JamesSFO » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:09 pm

What is the goal for the money when the trust ends? For example, in a remaining A/B style-trust, one might try to get lots of dividends on the B side...

Ferdinand2014
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:34 pm

travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am
If you had to pick an ETF to hold in trust for 50 years for a person who is currently a teenager, what would it be? Volatility doesn’t matter, as no one will be tracking the performance. It’s sitting in a figurative black box. Dividends would be reinvested. Let’s assume it’s a taxable account so tax drag matters.

I’m thinking VT would be my choice.

If you could pick three ETFs, but no rebalancing is allowed, would you pick something different?
VOO
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

guyinlaw
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:45 pm

VT and NTSX equal parts

US Stocks 75%
Ex US stocks 20%
Treasury Futures 5% (exposure 30%)
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

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travelogue
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by travelogue » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:09 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:45 pm
VT and NTSX equal parts

US Stocks 75%
Ex US stocks 20%
Treasury Futures 5% (exposure 30%)
Funny you mention NTSX (WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund) as I’ve been adding some as a part of the portfolio in one of our UTMA accounts. (See Bogleheads thread here for more than you ever wanted to know about this ETF.)

guyinlaw
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:12 pm

travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:09 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:45 pm
VT and NTSX equal parts

US Stocks 75%
Ex US stocks 20%
Treasury Futures 5% (exposure 30%)
Funny you mention NTSX (WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund) as I’ve been adding some as a part of the portfolio in one of our UTMA accounts. (See Bogleheads thread here for more than you ever wanted to know about this ETF.)
Its small AUM is bit of worry. ( between $35M-45M). But WisdomTree folks seem to be proud of it and expect it be a winner.
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

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travelogue
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by travelogue » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:20 pm

hdas wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:40 pm
Perhaps ACWV. Cheers :greedy
Yep, this is another ticker on my list. Thanks.

PS: ACWV is the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global ETF.

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1789
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by 1789 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:36 pm

Of course VTI
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Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:50 pm

80% VTI, 20% IJS.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

UpperNwGuy
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by UpperNwGuy » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:11 pm

VTI, not VT. You don't want to get yourself locked into a situation where you can't control your ratio of US and international stock holdings, so keep it as two separate funds. Start with VTI, then add VXUS a bit later.

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anon_investor
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by anon_investor » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:21 pm

VTI for sure!

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oldzey
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by oldzey » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:37 pm

travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am
If you had to pick an ETF to hold in trust for 50 years for a person who is currently a teenager, what would it be? Volatility doesn’t matter, as no one will be tracking the performance. It’s sitting in a figurative black box. Dividends would be reinvested. Let’s assume it’s a taxable account so tax drag matters.

I’m thinking VT would be my choice.
For someone who is currently a teenager, VT would also be my choice of one ETF to hold for 50 years.
travelogue wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 am
If you could pick three ETFs, but no rebalancing is allowed, would you pick something different?
No
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

glennherwig
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by glennherwig » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:50 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:16 pm
Nobody for QQQ?
I would second qqq. I also like SCHG for a teenager. Lower expense ratio than VT. And better gains

MotoTrojan
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:04 pm

305pelusa wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:38 pm
Total world (VT). No question.
I’m surprised from you. Afraid factors won’t persist, or just specific ETF longevity?

MotoTrojan
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:05 pm

22twain wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm
RadAudit wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:06 am
ACWI, URTH, VOO, VT and VTI
rascott wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:09 am
IJS.....
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:11 am
Equal parts VIOV, FNDC, and EDV without rebalancing
am wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am
Upro and tmf
jhfenton wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:44 pm
Definitely, VT
A real barrage of ticker-speak here. :shock:
The question specifically asked what ETF/ticker...

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305pelusa
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by 305pelusa » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:01 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:04 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:38 pm
Total world (VT). No question.
I’m surprised from you. Afraid factors won’t persist, or just specific ETF longevity?
Nah just because OP said you could only have 1 ETF. VT seems like the biggest bang for my buck.

MotoTrojan
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:27 pm

305pelusa wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:01 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:04 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:38 pm
Total world (VT). No question.
I’m surprised from you. Afraid factors won’t persist, or just specific ETF longevity?
Nah just because OP said you could only have 1 ETF. VT seems like the biggest bang for my buck.
Gotcha. At end of OP they mentioned 3, but no rebalancing.

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Spinola
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Spinola » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:35 pm

For a 50 year period, only 1 fund, one more vote for VT.

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JoMoney
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by JoMoney » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:37 pm

What I hold for myself, is a low cost S&P 500 index.
My preference would be Vanguard's VFIAX mutual fund, it has an ETF equivalent VOO , but with an ETF you have costs in the market spreads potential slippage in transactions. The fund is extremely tax efficient and all of it's dividends are 'qualified dividends' for tax purposes.
I wonder how many other index funds will even be around tracking the same index for 50 years.
Last edited by JoMoney on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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KlangFool
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by KlangFool » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:38 pm

OP,

VT.

KlangFool

$musicman$
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by $musicman$ » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 pm

anon_investor wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:21 pm
VTI for sure!

Ditto..VTI

Something International if you wish to continually underperform.

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geerhardusvos
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by geerhardusvos » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:48 pm

VTI AND CHILL
VTSAX and chill

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anon_investor
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by anon_investor » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:55 pm

geerhardusvos wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:48 pm
VTI AND CHILL
The chill part is key! :sharebeer

ukbogler
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by ukbogler » Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:49 am

VWRL if u r in GBP

3Fund4Life
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by 3Fund4Life » Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:38 am

VTI in my opinion for the following reasons:

1. 3x lower expense ratio (.03) than VT (.09) - (costs matter, especially over 50 year horizon)

2. You mentioned tax drag in taxable account: someday the teenager will likely have tax deferred and/or tax free accounts. They may want to locate their international allocation in these accounts to avoid the higher (relative to US) dividend (30% non qualified) tax drag.

3. They may also want to limit their international asset allocation to no more than 20%. 42% international (VT) may be too high for them.

4. I view VTI as a core holding, one that can be added to with other allocations over the life of an investor / account, as they desire. They will never regret owning the fund.

5. Simple

Scooter57
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Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Post by Scooter57 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:58 am

It's really hard to know how ETFs will do over the long term as they are a recent phenomenon and the Vanguard ones profit because of Vanguard's patented system that will be off patent in the future.

Who knows what changes will be made by Vanguard or regulators, especially if the next big market collapse is due to illiquidity in ETFs?

Planning for a shorter time period would be wiser.

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