2020 Hedge Fund contest

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overthought
Posts: 272
Joined: Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:44 am

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by overthought » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:49 pm

Wowsers! Grewolf and Didymograptus seem to have hit it out of the park with their CHK picks, currently up more than 23x.

Looks like a 1:200 reverse split is looming, tho, so the jump might be temporary and/or a spreadsheet glitch?

OnTrack
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Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:16 pm

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by OnTrack » Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:04 pm

overthought wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:49 pm
Wowsers! Grewolf and Didymograptus seem to have hit it out of the park with their CHK picks, currently up more than 23x.

Looks like a 1:200 reverse split is looming, tho, so the jump might be temporary and/or a spreadsheet glitch?
I was admiring the outstanding price appreciation of CHK until I realized it was due to the reverse split.
The opening $0.68 price needs to be adjusted for the 1:200 split. So the opening price should be $136.00. So it is down 87.96%, not up 2308.82%.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:10 am

Thanks. I've updated the spreadsheet to reflect the adjusted prices for the CHK reverse split.

aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:11 am

OnTrack wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:04 pm
overthought wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:49 pm
Wowsers! Grewolf and Didymograptus seem to have hit it out of the park with their CHK picks, currently up more than 23x.

Looks like a 1:200 reverse split is looming, tho, so the jump might be temporary and/or a spreadsheet glitch?
I was admiring the outstanding price appreciation of CHK until I realized it was due to the reverse split.
The opening $0.68 price needs to be adjusted for the 1:200 split. So the opening price should be $136.00. So it is down 87.96%, not up 2308.82%.
I thought 20X gain seemed fishy for a company in the oil business. That makes me feel a little better about my disappointing -39% performance this year.

FinancialDave
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:59 pm

Close my TDOC position as of today's close.
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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hornet96
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by hornet96 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:03 pm

Looks like one of my shorts (FTR) filed for bankruptcy last week. Somehow I missed the news! Am I allowed to ride it all the way to zero for a 100% gain? I believe the stock may have been delisted as it’s not coming through in the spreadsheet.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/frontier ... hHOiLtT-3P

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:22 pm

hornet96 wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:03 pm
Looks like one of my shorts (FTR) filed for bankruptcy last week. Somehow I missed the news! Am I allowed to ride it all the way to zero for a 100% gain? I believe the stock may have been delisted as it’s not coming through in the spreadsheet.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/frontier ... hHOiLtT-3P
Congrats on the nice short - FTR is now down over 80%. Frontier seemed to me destined for bankruptcy for a while now. Their stock is still trading, just over-the-counter, having been delisted from the New York stock exchange. The new ticker is FTRCQ and it was last seen at $0.12. You're welcome to continue to hold this or close your position out as you see fit. The spreadsheet is updated so everything is working again.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:35 pm

FinancialDave wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:59 pm
Close my TDOC position as of today's close.
And we have a new leader! FinancialDave takes 1st place with his single and prescient pick of Teladoc Health, a stand out choice as the coronavirus has upended many companies and left the market down 15% for the year even after a fairly impressive rebound off the lows. TDOC stock and Third Time Charmer investors are now up almost 102% for the year, and Dave has decided to cash in his chips.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

This puts him in a commanding lead over 2nd place and previous leader Tanelorn, currently up 92%. Rounding up 3rd place is b42, whose short pick of J.C. Penney (JCP), down 72%, and is looking like another bankruptcy in the works.

alex123711
Posts: 193
Joined: Sun May 20, 2018 5:01 am

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by alex123711 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:46 am

Too bad I didn't see this earlier as I would have joined. Just had a look at the spreadsheet and am a bit surprised how many people are up. Less than half but i expected less for some reason.

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:42 am

alex123711 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:46 am
Too bad I didn't see this earlier as I would have joined. Just had a look at the spreadsheet and am a bit surprised how many people are up. Less than half but i expected less for some reason.
The average contestant is down 3-4%, while the market is down 15% and an appropriate market benchmark, given the number of longs and shorts picked, is down around 8%. So yes, our group is doing well and outperforming by +4-5% even if they are down a little on average.

veggivet
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Fri May 15, 2020 7:24 am

Please close my JCP position at the close today. Thank you.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri May 15, 2020 11:33 pm

veggivet wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 7:24 am
Please close my JCP position at the close today. Thank you.
Done, closed your short at around $0.24. Quite a surprising turn of events actually, their stock ran way up on them making a delayed interest payment earlier today. Then they filed for bankruptcy this evening (Perhaps less surprising was handing out million dollar executive bonuses earlier this week). You can see the considerable trading volatility in the stock over the past two weeks below:

Image

So a bit of bad timing, but still a 72% gain for the short this year. Five other contestants still hold JCP so I’ll continue to follow them.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Sat May 16, 2020 4:36 pm

Once Elon Musk announces he has found a coronavirus cure I expect to be in the running again.

b42
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by b42 » Tue May 19, 2020 10:04 am

I want to close my JCP position at the close today. It looks like JCP was delisted so it's breaking the spreadsheet. I'm not sure how you get the final price, or is it whatever it was when the stock was delisted?

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue May 19, 2020 12:29 pm

b42 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:04 am
I want to close my JCP position at the close today. It looks like JCP was delisted so it's breaking the spreadsheet. I'm not sure how you get the final price, or is it whatever it was when the stock was delisted?
JCP has been delisted on account of their bankruptcy and now trades OTC with the ticker JCPNQ. Today it’s currently -20% at about $0.16. I’ll update the ticker later today and the spreadsheet will be fine. You can keep the position if you want, although if you don’t let me know otherwise, I’ll close you out at today’s final price.

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm

b42 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:04 am
I want to close my JCP position at the close today. It looks like JCP was delisted so it's breaking the spreadsheet. I'm not sure how you get the final price, or is it whatever it was when the stock was delisted?
Closed on 5/19 at $0.1123/share, a nice 87% gain for your short in JCP. Well timed too, as it’s up to 18-19c currently. Congrats on your 3rd place current position!

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

Hopefully Google will recognize the new JCPNQ otc ticker soon and those who still hold JCP will be reflected correctly in the rankings. This usually happens, but it may take a day or two. If not, I’ll see about finding a different quote source, but I’d rather avoid that if I can.

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Darth Xanadu
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu May 21, 2020 11:58 am

Please freeze my position in DOCU today.

Thanks!
DX

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu May 21, 2020 3:56 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 11:58 am
Please freeze my position in DOCU today.
Congrats on your 79% gain in DOCU, sold at $132.85.

In other news, I think I temporarily fixed the JCP quotes with their new otc ticker, so the spreadsheet should be working well again for everyone.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:09 pm

In some housekeeping news, Raymond's short bank pick of Opus Bank (OPB) has been acquired by the larger bank Pacific Premier Bancorp for 0.9 shares of the PPBI per OPB shareI in a stock merger. I've adjusted the prices accordingly and you're now short the right amount of PPBI stock. If you wish, you can keep this position short or close it by request as usual.

Congratulations to b42 for his Penny Stock Year 3 fund for overtaking Tanelorn to claim 2nd place with an 87% return for his short of the now-bankrupt J.C.Penney. Here are the current standings:

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

The stock market broadly has staged a huge and by many unexpected rally in recent weeks, gaining over 40% off the March lows. I reviewed the relative performance of our fund managers. Currently the average stock pick is -2.0% (for comparison our benchmark VTI is nearly -3%), which after adjusted for the long/short risk taken, is actually underperforming by around -0.4%. However, the average fund is doing better due to the mix and number of stock picks made per fund and how those have done, leaving the average fund up around +0.3% corresponding to +1.9% outperformance relative to the appropriate benchmark.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Raymond
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Raymond » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:44 pm

Thanks for the update, I'll keep PPBI short.

I hope my hedge fund will do better the rest of the year, seeing that the entire portfolio (and even the name) was chosen more or less at random:

The Hedge Fund Name Generator

Russell 3000 Index membership list

Random.org
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

honduranhurricane
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by honduranhurricane » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:29 am

See the price for JC Penny is different for different HF's? My holding says market price in the 30 cent area while another has it at in the low teen cents. Not sure what to make of that. Thanks so much for all the work you put into this.

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:26 pm

honduranhurricane wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:29 am
See the price for JC Penny is different for different HF's? My holding says market price in the 30 cent area while another has it at in the low teen cents. Not sure what to make of that. Thanks so much for all the work you put into this.
b42 and veggivet both covered their JCPNQ shorts at different times so that’s why they have different (and now static) closing prices for their pick. The current price is around $0.55 (and rapidly changing today!) so if you haven’t closed your position, that’s the corrrect price. If you look on the “data” tab of the spreadsheet, on the right side there is a column with trades and comments that mentions these types of things,

JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:02 pm


honduranhurricane
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by honduranhurricane » Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:24 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:26 pm
honduranhurricane wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:29 am
See the price for JC Penny is different for different HF's? My holding says market price in the 30 cent area while another has it at in the low teen cents. Not sure what to make of that. Thanks so much for all the work you put into this.
b42 and veggivet both covered their JCPNQ shorts at different times so that’s why they have different (and now static) closing prices for their pick. The current price is around $0.55 (and rapidly changing today!) so if you haven’t closed your position, that’s the corrrect price. If you look on the “data” tab of the spreadsheet, on the right side there is a column with trades and comments that mentions these types of things,
AH, now I feel silly. Well timed closings. Thanks.

aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:50 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:35 pm
FinancialDave wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:59 pm
Close my TDOC position as of today's close.
And we have a new leader! FinancialDave takes 1st place with his single and prescient pick of Teladoc Health, a stand out choice as the coronavirus has upended many companies and left the market down 15% for the year even after a fairly impressive rebound off the lows. TDOC stock and Third Time Charmer investors are now up almost 102% for the year, and Dave has decided to cash in his chips.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

This puts him in a commanding lead over 2nd place and previous leader Tanelorn, currently up 92%. Rounding up 3rd place is b42, whose short pick of J.C. Penney (JCP), down 72%, and is looking like another bankruptcy in the works.
Will be interesting to see whether this holds up. I closed my position last year +94% and a big lead but learned the hard way that a lot can happen in 6 months!

Topic Author
Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:48 pm

Congratulations to JBTX, our new 2nd place leader. His contrary and highly successful sole long pick of Tesla closed at $1000 today! This puts his WTHDOINO American Opportunities Fund investors up 91% for the year, and they’ve earned it with quite wild ride. TSLA stock has made 100% twice this year already from around $400 lows to $900 and back, and now up to $1000 as you can see below.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
Image

aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:31 am

What's up with the spreadsheet showing BYND up 400% YTD? It looks like it's up about 100% YTD on Yahoo chart but Google chart looks odd. Not seeing anything about reverse split or anything.

Either way, DOMO is on a nice run right now. Good position for another top 10 finish for Up In Smoke and our clientele of high risk investors.

Wind_Reaver
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Wind_Reaver » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:33 pm

"Reaver Investment Partners (RIP) submits request for regulatory inquiry into Google data as the Dynamically Allocated Finanacial Timebomb (DAFT) fund experiences explosive 2nd half start." - Insider’s Commissioned Asset Negation Network (ICANN)

Other odd tracking data. Unlikely KR is up 20x and WMT almost triple.

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