Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

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Rick Ferri
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Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:42 am

.
I am pleased to announce our February 2020 Bogleheads on Investing guest:

Paul Merriman

Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via free eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at his website.

Please post your general questions for Paul on this conversation. Ask only questions that would be of interest to listeners and avoid questions about your personal financial life. I will interview Paul in mid-January and the podcast will be published in early February.

Rick Ferri
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The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Housedoc » Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:53 pm

Paul pushes his Value idea which has lagged growth for years. How long of a horizon does he believe value will perform better than growth?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Horton » Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:43 pm

Housedoc wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:53 pm
Paul pushes his Value idea which has lagged growth for years. How long of a horizon does he believe value will perform better than growth?
The best time to buy a strategy is often when it isn’t working.

Along the same lines as Housedoc, Paul Merriman has long advocated small/value tilts based on academic research by Fama and French; I would be interested in his take on these plus the proliferation of other factors.

He’s been an advocate for DFA, but has also provided fund recommendations for those who prefer to use Vanguard, Schwab, etc. Another question - has he considered using the Avantis ETFs since they likely replicate a similar approach as DFA with potentially lower costs and without the need for an advisor?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by vasaver » Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:57 pm

Horton wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:43 pm
Housedoc wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:53 pm
Paul pushes his Value idea which has lagged growth for years. How long of a horizon does he believe value will perform better than growth?
The best time to buy a strategy is often when it isn’t working.

Along the same lines as Housedoc, Paul Merriman has long advocated small/value tilts based on academic research by Fama and French; I would be interested in his take on these plus the proliferation of other factors.

He’s been an advocate for DFA, but has also provided fund recommendations for those who prefer to use Vanguard, Schwab, etc. Another question - has he considered using the Avantis ETFs since they likely replicate a similar approach as DFA with potentially lower costs and without the need for an advisor?
Listen to his latest podcast. He talks about Advantis, and how they are looking at it for updated portfolios.

https://paulmerriman.com/podcasts/

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Stinky » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:07 pm

If I’ve got it right, Merriman’s “Ultimate Buy and Hold” has 10 funds, each at 10% of the portfolio.

Does he really expect that to outperform the Boglehead 3 fund approach over time? If so, which of the 10 funds are responsible for outperformance?

(Rick, congratulations on getting two of my favorite podcast hosts (you and Paul) on the same episode. It should be a good one)
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Horton » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:14 pm

vasaver wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:57 pm
Horton wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:43 pm
Housedoc wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:53 pm
Paul pushes his Value idea which has lagged growth for years. How long of a horizon does he believe value will perform better than growth?
The best time to buy a strategy is often when it isn’t working.

Along the same lines as Housedoc, Paul Merriman has long advocated small/value tilts based on academic research by Fama and French; I would be interested in his take on these plus the proliferation of other factors.

He’s been an advocate for DFA, but has also provided fund recommendations for those who prefer to use Vanguard, Schwab, etc. Another question - has he considered using the Avantis ETFs since they likely replicate a similar approach as DFA with potentially lower costs and without the need for an advisor?
Listen to his latest podcast. He talks about Advantis, and how they are looking at it for updated portfolios.

https://paulmerriman.com/podcasts/
Thanks! I’ll check it out!

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:18 pm

What does Paul think of the factor funds at Vanguard (I don't think I've heard him talk much about them). He usually says the stocks that Vanguard chooses for their value and small cap funds are not deep enough value and are not as small as similar asset class funds used by DFA. So what does he think about the factor funds and if he doesn't recommend them, why not?
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:30 pm

1) What is the expected benefit of your market timing portfolio compared to buy/hold/rebalance?
2) What are the exact buy and sell signals used for your market timing portfolio and why did you choose those specific signals?
3) How do the results of your market timing sleeve compare to the buy and hold sleeve of your portfolio in terms of risk and return?
4) Why do you choose to do both equity market timing and to hold fixed income?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Triple digit golfer » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:36 pm

With many investors holding a significant portion of their portfolios in 401ks with limited fund choices, perhaps an S&P 500 index and intermediate term bond index alongside high expense actively managed funds, how would you recommend they best implement your 10 fund Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio? Would you recommend they not use their 401k and give up valuable tax advantaged space, use expensive actively managed funds, or simply abandon the idea and implement a simpler 3 fund portfolio with the low expense fund choices that they have available to them along with the piece that is missing held in an IRA or taxable account?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by S_Track » Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:09 pm

Rick,

Suggestion for a future show, one of the mangers of the Wellington or Wellesley fund from Wellington Management Company. Although active management they are two funds that are popular here on the forum. it would be interesting to hear about their approach. Just a thought.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by columbia » Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:29 pm

For fun, ask him about living in San Miguel de Allende.

It’s on my places to visit. 😀

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by geerhardusvos » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:08 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:42 am
.
I am pleased to announce our February 2020 Bogleheads on Investing guest:

Paul Merriman

Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via free eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at his website.

Please post your general questions for Paul on this conversation. Ask only questions that would be of interest to listeners and avoid questions about your personal financial life. I will interview Paul in mid-January and the podcast will be published in early February.

Rick Ferri
Your Host
Paul - what do you think about 100% portfolio in the S&P 500, especially since its outperformed his portfolio in many time periods? Just for fun, what is your prediction for returns in 2020 for the S&P 500? Since many of us join the contest here, would be fun to get his number
Last edited by geerhardusvos on Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
VTSAX and chill

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Vikingfan » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:22 pm

S_Track wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:09 pm
Rick,

Suggestion for a future show, one of the mangers of the Wellington or Wellesley fund from Wellington Management Company. Although active management they are two funds that are popular here on the forum. it would be interesting to hear about their approach. Just a thought.
I second this great suggestion. I love these 2 funds. Not trying to beat any market just quality companies and corporate bonds.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:31 pm

His ten fund just bewilders me. I would think you could replicate the same exposure with half that number of holdings and a lower ER too. I will give his podcasts a listen though on the way to work... interested to hear his thoughts on Avantis funds and other value related areas of interest.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Forester » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:38 pm

Has Mr Merriman investigated the low volatility / minimum variance factor; is he waiting for a longer track record for this factor(s) before he is willing to recommend them ?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Trader Joe » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:57 pm

This is great news! I am very interested to hear from Paul Merriman how his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has held up vs. the ultimate passive investment strategy of VFIAX (SP&500).

If I recall correctly, Paul's portfolio was a Slice & Dice Portfolio using 10 separate funds. That sounds like an awful lot of rebalancing work - something I have zero interest in doing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u ... -17?page=5

I recently asked Paul (Madslinger) on this forum how his reported Slice & Dice Portfolio compares to the the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299424&newpost=493 ... ead#unread

FYI, I currently only invest in VFINX or VTSAX. Of course, I am always open to new data/information.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Wind_Reaver » Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:10 pm

Question for Paul:
  • Paul updates his recommended funds list as more relevant products become available. What funds would he like to see come to market which do not currently exist, or where existing products could be improved upon?
Thanks Rick. Episodes 16 & 17 were fantastic.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by iowa77 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:18 pm

I listen to all of Paul's podcasts and consider them invaluable. Yet, he is still is an advocate of his tilting towards value. He has advised the Ultimate Buy and Hold and now the 2 fund portfolio with a target date fund and a value tilt. Why not just go with a simple 3 fund portfolio and call it a day? Rebalance when it is out of whack and forget the rest, its all baked into the cake? Simplicity

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:15 pm

iowa77 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:18 pm
I listen to all of Paul's podcasts and consider them invaluable. Yet, he is still is an advocate of his tilting towards value. He has advised the Ultimate Buy and Hold and now the 2 fund portfolio with a target date fund and a value tilt. Why not just go with a simple 3 fund portfolio and call it a day? Rebalance when it is out of whack and forget the rest, its all baked into the cake? Simplicity
he advocates a target date and a small cap value (not just a value) tilt.

I assume he'd say the three fund is a large cap growth bet and not enough small and value in there.

Also, this (along with his M1 portfolios) work is a joint venture with Chris Pederson:

https://paulmerriman.com/chris-pedersen-expert/
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:24 pm

What advice does Paul have for Bogleheads who exhibit intractable recency bias? :twisted:

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:35 pm

Rick, another of Paul's traits that should be mentioned is the fact that he is a classy gentleman.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:43 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:07 pm
If I’ve got it right, Merriman’s “Ultimate Buy and Hold” has 10 funds, each at 10% of the portfolio.

Does he really expect that to outperform the Boglehead 3 fund approach over time? If so, which of the 10 funds are responsible for outperformance?
Yes, he does expect it to outperform.

Paul has always recommended small and value tilts, but he does not generally recommend that most investors go 'all in'. Accordingly, in the U.S., he recommends (or did for a long time) that investors hold LCB, LCV, SCB, SCV, and the same for international equities when feasible, plus fixed income. Personally, I think that a combination of LCB and SCV are more than good enough for those who want a small and value tilt, but DFA is still the only provider of an ex-U.S. SCV fund, TMK.
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Cantrip » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:16 pm

Since Paul Merriman believes in factor investing, I would like to know how he evaluates between two etfs with similar factor loads, but differing alphas. For instance Rafi funds claim positive alpha as a reason for investors to pay a higher expense ratio for their funds (about an extra 20bp over what investors can get a similar tilted vanguard product -- for a hopeful 1-2% alpha).

I personally am struggling deciding between the CRSP SCV index and the s&p600 value index. The CRSP SCV index (which VBR now tracks very closely) has an 18 year history of 1.79% positive alpha per year on a 3 factor model. This alpha is actually statistically meaningful with a T stat of 2.22. The s&p600 value index over the same 18 year history has a much lower 0.14% positive alpha per year (I'm aware midcaps overperformed during the period).

I know Paul Merriman prefers the s&p600 value index as the companies are smaller (smb 0.83 to 0.56), but over the 18 year time period the funds have the same value load (hml ~0.45). How much can the positive alpha be counted on in the future? Is it worth anything? If so, what increase in expense ratio would you pay for an extra 1% historical alpha?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Cantrip » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:20 pm

I'm also curious about how Paul Merriman feels about the newer multi-factor funds such as XSVM, and VFMF, which combine momentum and value. These funds are typically less diversified or have a reduced value load. Is a regular value fund strategy good enough?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Cantrip » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:43 pm
but DFA is still the only provider of an ex-U.S. SCV fund, TMK.
AVDV, avantis international small cap value fund, is an etf with an expense ratio of 36 basis points. I do not know if it does security lending, anyone know?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Gnirk » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:33 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:35 pm
Rick, another of Paul's traits that should be mentioned is the fact that he is a classy gentleman.
+1
He currently provides free educational classes to a variety of people. I convinced my 48 year old daughter to attend one of his educational seminars three years ago, and she came away with a new attitude. She was a spender, not a saver. Now she maxes her 401K, funds a ROTH IRA, and an HSA. And no longer carries cc debt. Amazing how she wouldn’t listen to me, but she sure listened to Paul! Thank you, Paul Merriman!

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by rascott » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:48 pm

iowa77 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:18 pm
I listen to all of Paul's podcasts and consider them invaluable. Yet, he is still is an advocate of his tilting towards value. He has advised the Ultimate Buy and Hold and now the 2 fund portfolio with a target date fund and a value tilt. Why not just go with a simple 3 fund portfolio and call it a day? Rebalance when it is out of whack and forget the rest, its all baked into the cake? Simplicity

If you actually listen to all of his podcasts you would already know his answer to that. He's discussed it many, many times.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by One Ping » Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:55 pm

Gnirk wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:33 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:35 pm
Rick, another of Paul's traits that should be mentioned is the fact that he is a classy gentleman.
+1
He currently provides free educational classes to a variety of people. I convinced my 48 year old daughter to attend one of his educational seminars three years ago, and she came away with a new attitude. She was a spender, not a saver. Now she maxes her 401K, funds a ROTH IRA, and an HSA. And no longer carries cc debt. Amazing how she wouldn’t listen to me, but she sure listened to Paul! Thank you, Paul Merriman!
Agree, willthrill81, he is a classy guy.

He is also working with Western Washington University (Bellingham, WA) on developing a course for undergrads on financial/investing literacy fundamentals (e.g., impacts of save early, save often, diversification, asset allocation, etc.). Would be interesting to hear his thoughts on these and other approaches for expanding financial education for younger investors.
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by abuss368 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:07 pm

Looking forward to it.
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:10 am

I have listened to all of Paul's podcasts and can probably answer every question posed for him. :) Nonetheless, I am looking forward to it.

I am going to just guess that he will talk about small-cap value. :)
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by packer16 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:57 pm

Let's invert the value factor rationale.

What evidence will change Paul's mind on whether the value factor can add value to his portfolios?
Also, has he tracked how much value tilting has added to detracted from his clients portfolios performance over time?
Has this declined? If so, how is he sure this is not from the market becoming more efficient?
IMO, the "mind of the market" is reflected in a cap weighted indicies & the only way to outperform going forward is to have information not reflected in the "mind of the market". What information does Paul have that is not already known?

Since 2000, it appears that much of the value outperformance is due to the indices being over weighted in overvalued growth stocks. Does Paul think the situation is applicable today or is the market more efficient today than it was in the late 1990s?

Any combo of these questions would be interesting to see how his thinking has evolved over time. Thanks.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by guyinlaw » Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:14 pm

What do you and and Paul think about NTSX, WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund?

It wll likely outperform 60/40, 80/20 or even 100% S&P 500 over a period of time.

It has low expense ratio 0.2%, and fairly tax efficient. ( Better than $SWAN)

Thank you

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Bama12 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:49 pm

I love Paul.

He puts his money where his mouth is.

He will teach you.

He doesn't tell you to just put your money here because you are to dumb to be able to invest I like I do.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Bama12 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm

Trader Joe wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:57 pm
This is great news! I am very interested to hear from Paul Merriman how his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has held up vs. the ultimate passive investment strategy of VFIAX (SP&500).

If I recall correctly, Paul's portfolio was a Slice & Dice Portfolio using 10 separate funds. That sounds like an awful lot of rebalancing work - something I have zero interest in doing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u ... -17?page=5

I recently asked Paul (Madslinger) on this forum how his reported Slice & Dice Portfolio compares to the the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299424&newpost=493 ... ead#unread

FYI, I currently only invest in VFINX or VTSAX. Of course, I am always open to new data/information.

No, he teaches not to re-balance. It's buy and hold very simple. I have been doing it for years.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by One Ping » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:30 pm

Bama12 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm
Trader Joe wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:57 pm
This is great news! I am very interested to hear from Paul Merriman how his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has held up vs. the ultimate passive investment strategy of VFIAX (SP&500).

If I recall correctly, Paul's portfolio was a Slice & Dice Portfolio using 10 separate funds. That sounds like an awful lot of rebalancing work - something I have zero interest in doing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u ... -17?page=5

I recently asked Paul (Madslinger) on this forum how his reported Slice & Dice Portfolio compares to the the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299424&newpost=493 ... ead#unread

FYI, I currently only invest in VFINX or VTSAX. Of course, I am always open to new data/information.

No, he teaches not to re-balance. It's buy and hold very simple. I have been doing it for years.
No. Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio returns are based on annual rebalancing. If you know of somewhere where he has said something different please post the link, thanks.
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Bama12 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:17 am

One Ping wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:30 pm
Bama12 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm
Trader Joe wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:57 pm
This is great news! I am very interested to hear from Paul Merriman how his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has held up vs. the ultimate passive investment strategy of VFIAX (SP&500).

If I recall correctly, Paul's portfolio was a Slice & Dice Portfolio using 10 separate funds. That sounds like an awful lot of rebalancing work - something I have zero interest in doing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u ... -17?page=5

I recently asked Paul (Madslinger) on this forum how his reported Slice & Dice Portfolio compares to the the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299424&newpost=493 ... ead#unread

FYI, I currently only invest in VFINX or VTSAX. Of course, I am always open to new data/information.

No, he teaches not to re-balance. It's buy and hold very simple. I have been doing it for years.
No. Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio returns are based on annual rebalancing. If you know of somewhere where he has said something different please post the link, thanks.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-r ... 2013-11-20

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by GreatOdinsRaven » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:43 am

S_Track wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:09 pm
Rick,

Suggestion for a future show, one of the mangers of the Wellington or Wellesley fund from Wellington Management Company. Although active management they are two funds that are popular here on the forum. it would be interesting to hear about their approach. Just a thought.
Rick,
+1 on this ^ idea.
GOR
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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by IFYOUCAN » Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:53 am

packer16 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:57 pm
Let's invert the value factor rationale.

What evidence will change Paul's mind on whether the value factor can add value to his portfolios?


Packer

Probably Dr Bessimbinder's findings. Which he already knows about, hmmmm.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by IFYOUCAN » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:40 am

Q: why did you only give the s&p500 10% credit when you continually refere to it as the market? Do you think this was a mistake in constructing the ultimate buy and hold portfolio?

Q: Does the finding of Dr Bessimbinder's not prove that we should own the entire market to get that 11% return that markets have averaged in the past 50-100 years? How does owning value groups like scv/lcv/int scv/int lcv capture a super stock?

Q: could historical returns of value and growth revert to the mean? As in if value outperformed in past 80 years could it underperform in the next 30-80 years after that?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by 220volt » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:30 am

I love Paul’s attitude and advice, but lately he has been focusing too much on young investors. Put everything in stocks in your early 20’s and ride it out for 40 years until you become a millionaire. Too me that seems like a low risk advice, almost a cop out. There’s really not much to it.
I wish he could focus more on strategies for 40+ investors (or even near retirement) which is the core of his audience anyway. Things get lot more interesting and difficult with more money at stake with less time.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by CWRadio » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:55 pm

Question: What is your current thinking about when to buy a single premium immediate annuity (SPIA) once you are in retirement? Thanks Paul

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by luren » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:46 pm

I looked at his 2019 update buy and hold strategy. Not one word is mentioned about bonds. The buy and hold strategy seems to be 100% stocks. Am I missing something? Obviously older folks also want to buy and hold, but don't want to risk being 100% in the stock market.
What is his recommendation to retired investors?

https://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-b ... 19-update/

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by guyinlaw » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:02 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:30 pm
1) What is the expected benefit of your market timing portfolio compared to buy/hold/rebalance?
2) What are the exact buy and sell signals used for your market timing portfolio and why did you choose those specific signals?
3) How do the results of your market timing sleeve compare to the buy and hold sleeve of your portfolio in terms of risk and return?
4) Why do you choose to do both equity market timing and to hold fixed income?
Not sure if this podcast answers your question here is a podcast Paul did.

https://paulmerriman.com/the-truth-about-market-timing/

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Jags4186 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:08 pm

220volt wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:30 am
I love Paul’s attitude and advice, but lately he has been focusing too much on young investors. Put everything in stocks in your early 20’s and ride it out for 40 years until you become a millionaire. Too me that seems like a low risk advice, almost a cop out. There’s really not much to it.
I wish he could focus more on strategies for 40+ investors (or even near retirement) which is the core of his audience anyway. Things get lot more interesting and difficult with more money at stake with less time.
You can look at Paul's glide path to see his recommendations for equity to bond asset allocation.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by rascott » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:18 pm

luren wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:46 pm
I looked at his 2019 update buy and hold strategy. Not one word is mentioned about bonds. The buy and hold strategy seems to be 100% stocks. Am I missing something? Obviously older folks also want to buy and hold, but don't want to risk being 100% in the stock market.
What is his recommendation to retired investors?

https://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-b ... 19-update/


He likes ITTs and TIPS if I recall. No risk on the bond side. He puts out fine tuning tables to assist with AA.... they can be found on his site.

https://paulmerriman.com/fine-tuning-tables-2018/

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by USAFperio » Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:12 pm

Rick, I’d be curious to hear Paul’s response to Big ERN’s article which directly challenged Paul’s “small cap value premium” claims which he had made previously on the ChooseFI podcast. It’s a very well-written and convincing article.

Link: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/06/ ... ue-stocks/

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by Fomalhaut » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:20 pm

Bama12 wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:17 am
One Ping wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:30 pm
Bama12 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm
Trader Joe wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:57 pm
This is great news! I am very interested to hear from Paul Merriman how his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has held up vs. the ultimate passive investment strategy of VFIAX (SP&500).

If I recall correctly, Paul's portfolio was a Slice & Dice Portfolio using 10 separate funds. That sounds like an awful lot of rebalancing work - something I have zero interest in doing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u ... -17?page=5

I recently asked Paul (Madslinger) on this forum how his reported Slice & Dice Portfolio compares to the the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299424&newpost=493 ... ead#unread

FYI, I currently only invest in VFINX or VTSAX. Of course, I am always open to new data/information.

No, he teaches not to re-balance. It's buy and hold very simple. I have been doing it for years.
No. Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio returns are based on annual rebalancing. If you know of somewhere where he has said something different please post the link, thanks.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-r ... 2013-11-20
He still recommends rebalancing between stocks and bonds.
The article seems more geared towards young investors who can take advantage of not-rebalancing between stocks.
He still urges older investors to keep rebalancing / not letting single asset targets get away from planned percentages.

Also important, how has his viewed changed since this 2013 article?

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by White Coat Investor » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:23 pm

Should be a fun discussion. Looking forward to seeing you both in March at WCICON. I think it would be fun to see you two debate the value of simplicity in a portfolio. But let's not kid ourselves, we know what you would both say already!
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by bck63 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:24 pm

If he says "small cap value" one more time I'm gonna drill a corkscrew into my eye.

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Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:28 pm

bck63 wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:24 pm
If he says "small cap value" one more time I'm gonna drill a corkscrew into my eye.
You can probably sell tickets to that.

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