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Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm
by AndroAsc
I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:44 pm
by soccerrules
I put hot things in a thermos, they stay hot. I put cold things in a thermos, they stay cold-- how do it know?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:45 pm
by gips
why are you worried the market hasn't crashed yet?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:46 pm
by Schlabba
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Markets don’t simply die of old age

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:47 pm
by Brianmcg321
Overdue?

Did 2018 not happen in your world?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:47 pm
by watchnerd
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Are you asking about the economy or the market?

They're two different things.

And have you looked at 2018?

Lastly, what's your definition of a crash vs a recession?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:48 pm
by whodidntante
If you're hoping for a big drawdown, you'll get your wish eventually. You will probably not see it coming with any kind of accuracy. Stay invested and take appropriate risks.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:48 pm
by bloom2708
People are working, people are making money, companies are turning profits, both have money to spend and invest and borrow.

Keep it rolling.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:48 pm
by watchnerd
Brianmcg321 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:47 pm Overdue?

Did 2018 not happen in your world?
Well, OP did say they don't listen to financial news....

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:49 pm
by bberris
For brevity, "I'm not a market timer but..." posts can use

INAMTB

I admit it does not roll off the tongue.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:49 pm
by PluckyDucky
It did decline 20% in December 2018.

Is that not enough?

To the moon! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:50 pm
by PluckyDucky
soccerrules wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:44 pm I put hot things in a thermos, they stay hot. I put cold things in a thermos, they stay cold-- how do it know?
How is babby formed?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:57 pm
by ohai
PluckyDucky wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:49 pm It did decline 20% in December 2018.

Is that not enough?

To the moon! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
"Things are so volatile now, I don't feel like it's a good time to invest" -All the sideliners in 2018.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:00 pm
by HomerJ
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Why is it long overdue?

Dow went from 1000 in 1982 to 11000 in 2000.

That's 11x gain (not even counting dividends) over 18 years.

Dow was around 6500 at the bottom in 2009, it's at 28000 today...

That's about a 4x gain (not counting dividends) over 11 years.

Why are we LONG overdue for a crash?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:07 pm
by watchnerd
I like all this fear and doubt about the market.

It makes me feel like we haven't peaked yet.

When we get to the point that people are asking if they should take out HELOCs to invest in the market, that's when I go 'uh oh'.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:08 pm
by scubadiver
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Would you be less worried if the market were down 30% and with 8% unemployment?

What's your asset allocation? Are you certain it's set at a level consistent with your risk tolerance?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:08 pm
by FrugalConservative
Bull markets dont die of old age.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:09 pm
by PluckyDucky
watchnerd wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:07 pm I like all this fear and doubt about the market.

It makes me feel like we haven't peaked yet.

When we get to the point that people are asking if they should take out HELOCs to invest in the market, that's when I go 'uh oh'.
The best time to do that is after the 70-80% crash.

:mrgreen:

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:10 pm
by WhiteMaxima
What do you expect? To the best of your interest?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:16 pm
by F150HD
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?

The stock market just booked its ugliest Christmas Eve plunge — ever Dec 24, 2018

US stocks post worst year in a decade as the S&P 500 falls more than 6% in 2018

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:38 pm
by CheepSkate
watchnerd wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:07 pm I like all this fear and doubt about the market.

It makes me feel like we haven't peaked yet.

When we get to the point that people are asking if they should take out HELOCs to invest in the market, that's when I go 'uh oh'.
So what I’m thinking is, I should do this now and exit the position when everyone else starts doing it!

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:39 pm
by greg24
Animal spirits.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:41 pm
by UpperNwGuy
OP, what action do you recommend we take?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:56 pm
by Iridium
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Market: the market crashed at the end of 2018. While 2000 and 2008 were our last two crashes, they were unusually severe. If you look at the crashes that typically lead to the 'every 7-10 years' gut feeling, the 2018 type crash (a rapid downstroke, followed by recovery in about a year) is not unusual.

Economy: Honestly, something seems funky with our economy. Where is the euphoria? We ought to have inflation and/or rapidly rising interest rates, as companies pursue opportunities with reckless abandon. Instead, it feels like companies are still rather cautious, largely preferring to take their chips off the table, rather than make big investments in production, innovation, or attacking new industries. The only exception I have noticed are investors seemingly tossing money at every company that can cloak itself as a tech startup (i.e. WeWork and the even more ridiculous tale of Long Island Iced Tea Corp renaming itself Long Blockchain without actually doing anything on the Blockchain). Fortunately, it appears that such investors can either afford to lose those investments or are small/deleveraged enough that the losses don't spread to the rest of the market. Regardless, while I have only been an investor for a decade or so, the conservatism of this economy appears to be fairly unusual, which probably slows down typical rules of thumb.

Ultimately, there isn't anything you can do about it. As an equity investor, we contribute to the market a willingness to lose half or more of our investment. For that, we are richly rewarded relative to bond holders. Index investing has proved we can collect such a reward, even without picking winning companies. However, history has repeatedly shown that investors who try to welch on their contribution by avoiding the down turns while still collecting equity returns on the upswing do rather poorly. Use this moment to analyze how much of your portfolio you are willing to risk and adjust if needed. Just don't pretend it is a way to protect the downside while you collect the upside.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:58 pm
by Glockenspiel
Fed and President manipulation of the markets.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:01 pm
by JoeRetire
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
Is there a due date on the economy? I don't think so.

The economy is doing well. And the market hasn't crashed yet. Eventually it will. Nobody knows when "eventually" will occur.

Stop getting worried. And stop watching whatever source is generating this worry for you.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:02 pm
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Glockenspiel wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:58 pm Fed and President manipulation of the markets.
The Fed’s stated mission is to keep the economy humming.

Is that “manipulation” or just how the world works?

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:04 pm
by FrankLUSMC
Glockenspiel wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:58 pm Fed and President manipulation of the markets.
In before the LOCK!!!!

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:46 pm
by big bang
FrankLUSMC wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:04 pm
Glockenspiel wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:58 pm Fed and President manipulation of the markets.
In before the LOCK!!!!
Never been in a thread that was locked.
Just using the opportunity.....

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:47 pm
by Alaric
The human brain wants to find patterns. I have seen a lot of people, especially among those old enough to remember the dot com bust and the 2008 Great Recession but not necessarily old enough to remember the preceding decade(s), apparently come to the conclusion that major economy and markets crashes (although you can have one without the other) come around about once a decade and wipe out around half the value of the stock market. So by that back of the envelope thinking, we are overdue for the next big one.

Link below to a recent L.A Times article on many Millennials missing out on potential gains due to fear of the past repeating. Which one day it will, but in the meantime, many people ~25-35 have been falling behind.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/ ... ?_amp=true
That’s in part due to the financial crisis that shaped the economy during millennials’ formative years — and the habits and fears they adopted at that time have, to some extent, kept them away from this year’s runaway market success.

“They’ve been tarnished by the damage that Wall Street did 10 years ago, and it’s in their psyche,” said Steve Nielander, a San Diego State finance lecturer and a partner at wealth management firm Cerity Partners.
Older millennials also remember the dot-com crash of technology stocks in the early 2000s, which means they’ve witnessed two huge market plunges “in a 10-year period, and that’s never happened before,” Nielander said.

“These people grew up and watched that, and saw the pressure on their parents of losing money in the stock market, losing their homes and seeing the mass distrust of Wall Street,” he said.
There's also some off-base commentary in the piece about the virtue of DCA due to investors being able to buy more shares at low prices and fewer shares at high prices, but that notwithstanding it was a good read.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:49 pm
by MotoTrojan
PluckyDucky wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:49 pm It did decline 20% in December 2018.

Is that not enough?

To the moon! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
The economy didn't decline...

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:51 pm
by 3funder
whodidntante wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:48 pm If you're hoping for a big drawdown, you'll get your wish eventually. You will probably not see it coming with any kind of accuracy. Stay invested and take appropriate risks.
+1

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:53 pm
by dwickenh
3funder wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:51 pm
whodidntante wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:48 pm If you're hoping for a big drawdown, you'll get your wish eventually. You will probably not see it coming with any kind of accuracy. Stay invested and take appropriate risks.
+1
+2

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:54 pm
by cashboy
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
it is not like a pizza delivery :happy

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:58 pm
by willthrill81
AndroAsc wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:41 pm I'm not a market timer, and generally don't listen to financial news...

But I'm getting worried the market hasn't crashed yet. It's been long overdue by now, yes?
We had a brief but real bear market in 2018. VTSAX dropped by just over 20%. So the current bull market isn't that old at all.

I think that many, not necessarily you, let 2000-2009 taint their views for what is typical of the stock market. 50% drops have not been the norm. IIRC, U.S. stocks have only dropped that much three times in nominal dollars and five times in real dollars over the last ~120 years. There have only been ten bear markets (i.e. at least 20% decline) since 1920.

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:00 pm
by TierArtz
The collective national population is not scared. Most people who want a job have a job. Good fiscal policy. FWIW, my net worth has increased $1082 per day since 20 January 2017 :P I'll take some more of that!

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:08 pm
by LadyGeek
I removed an off-topic post. This thread has run its course and is locked. See: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
  • US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
  • conspiracy theories of any type
  • discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.