OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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khangaroo
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by khangaroo »

3614.14
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MNGopher »

3375.30
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by blaidd »

3636 is my prediction.
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mostlysunny »

3432.62
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silk McCue »

3533.70
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by slee »

3417.14
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mitty »

2881.26
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by al983 »

2548.10 swag.
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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION CLOSES AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

REGISTRATION CLOSES AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Ralph Arvesen, our programer extraordinaire, sent me this message:
"I have not done anything with the contest tracking site. I am really busy at work and non-work, but I'll try to get the site updated in a few weeks."
Please, no more "guesses" after midnight in this thread.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
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"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by EHEngineer »

3483.48
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by relativeworld »

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. From what I've learned so far, if I win this I can claim guru-level stock picking chops on my resume for at least one business cycle, right?

My guess: 3456.10
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JoMoney
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JoMoney »

3333.33
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Small Savanna »

3517.71
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Cheeseman »

3876.96
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Sun88 »

2480.0
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by automatic deductions »

3428.25
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peetsperk
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by peetsperk »

Entry into the 2020 Boglehead Contest ends in 10 minutes.
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Raymond
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Raymond »

4224.00
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Bgfan »

3725.00
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Fat-Tailed Contagion »

3957.71
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” | ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (75/25 - 50/50 - 25/75)
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ Taylor / Ralph - This entry is a few minutes late, but consider letting it slide.

===============================
The registration is now closed.

Let's keep the thread open for possible entry corrections (once it's setup) and for comments by Ralph Aversen or Taylor.
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ Or, wiki activity. The wiki has been updated for the 2020 contests: Bogleheads® contests

The left-side menu of every wiki page has a link to the contest standings. Bogleheads® contest (not available in mobile view)
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MJS
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MJS »

The Contest page shows only the Experts' entries. Will the Boglehead entries be added later this year?
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by treypar »

2243.00
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LadyGeek
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ The contest is closed to new entries.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
clip651
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by clip651 »

MJS wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:15 pm The Contest page shows only the Experts' entries. Will the Boglehead entries be added later this year?
I'm sure they will be. There was a previous post somewhere in this thread indicating that the person that works on that was pretty tied up with work, and would get to it a bit later.

Edited to add a link to the post I was remembering, you can also find it by just scrolling up:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299165&p=4946158&h ... h#p4946158
sport
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sport »

.......
Last edited by sport on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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oldcomputerguy
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldcomputerguy »

^^^ Repeating LadyGeek's and Taylor's guidance above, registration for the 2020 Bogleheads Contests is closed (it closed at midnight Friday night January 10).
MJS
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MJS »

clip651 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:15 pm
MJS wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:15 pm The Contest page shows only the Experts' entries. Will the Boglehead entries be added later this year?
I'm sure they will be. There was a previous post somewhere in this thread indicating that the person that works on that was pretty tied up with work, and would get to it a bit later.

Edited to add a link to the post I was remembering, you can also find it by just scrolling up:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299165&p=4946158&h ... h#p4946158
Thank you. Good to know.
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rarvesen
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If anyone has time

Post by rarvesen »

Hi, sorry about the tracking site, I usually get all of the entries entered with a few weeks, but I have been really busy at my day-job, and just as busy at my night-job, and I'm finding it difficult to find any time to go through and enter the entries. I will do it sometime (could be months), or if anyone wants to help, they could create a list that contains:

1) User name
2) guess

For example:

Silence Dogood
3333.33

Any format would be useful, but in the end, it will end up in this format:

<entry name='Silence Dogood ' guess='3333.33' pundit='false' />

Sorry again.
latebloomer2
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by latebloomer2 »

3456.1 oops to late
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rarvesen
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

Thanks so much to Silk McCue and Wind_Reaver for going through and getting the names / guesses, I'll get the tracking site updated shortly.
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

The tracking site is updated, please let me know if you notice any issues with the guesses and I'll make any corrections.
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Taylor Larimore
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2020 CONTEST IS UP AND RUNNING !!!

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Thank you Silk McCue, Wind_Reaver, and of course, Ralph Arvesen our super programer.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ReformedSpender »

Goldman and JPM both out with lowered expectations due to Coronavirus. Mid year target of ~2400 with a V shaped recovery to 3200 (from 3400 previously) due to ZIRP and various stimulus packages.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BarbBrooklyn »

I missed that THIS was the official entry point. My prediction was on Jan1 2020 is still 3425. B
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thefrozentin
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by thefrozentin »

3743.28
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LadyGeek
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ Registration closed in January.

(Thread locked to prevent further updates.)
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

Update: The 2020 contest was won by Mlretired . From the 2021 contest announcement: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
rarvesen wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:03 am Recap of 2020 contest
On January 1, 2020 the S&P 500 Index was 3230.78 and on December 31, 2020 it closed at 3756.07. Mlretired made a remarkable winning guess that the S&P 500 Index would close at 3755.00, out-guessing 652 Bogleheads and 12 Wall Street expert forecasters.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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