OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28960
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:08 am

Bogleheads:

Welcome to the 2020 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices.

Despite the odds, in 2019 a Boglehead with the username "buylowbuyhigh" out-guessed 631 other Bogleheads and 13 Wall Street Guru's with his January forecast of 3224.00, very close to the S&P 500 Index year-end close of 3230.78. WE SALUTE YOU! Please send me a Private Message (PM) with your name and mailing address to receive your prizes.

2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Rules for 2020:

* Forecast (below) what you think will be the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2020.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight EDT, January 10, 2020

The winner of the 2020 Boglehead Contest will receive his or her choice of any one of these Boglehead Books: The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing; The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning or The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!

Taylor and Ralph Aversen (programer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Silence Dogood
Posts: 1241
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:22 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silence Dogood » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:08 am

3333.33

User avatar
ReformedSpender
Posts: 416
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:09 am

3578

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

BlueCable
Posts: 305
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:20 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BlueCable » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:10 am

3857.74

User avatar
Johnsson
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:28 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johnsson » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:12 am

3683.4
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra

User avatar
vectorizer
Posts: 389
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 3:52 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by vectorizer » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:13 am

2751

Hope I'm wrong (on the low side)

Triple digit golfer
Posts: 3922
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:13 am

2810.03

mighty72
Moderator
Posts: 756
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 11:22 pm
Location: Somewhere in the West

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mighty72 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:16 am

I am in (again) @ 3599.99

User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 597
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrspock » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:17 am

3570.3

260chrisb
Posts: 325
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:26 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 260chrisb » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:17 am

3909.24

maverick1968
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:55 pm
Location: New York State

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by maverick1968 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:21 am

2745.52

RubyTuesday
Posts: 338
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:24 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RubyTuesday » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:21 am

3037 Is my guess.

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 358
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Stef » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:22 am

My guess is 3589.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15190
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:22 am

3,617
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

2cents2
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:31 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 2cents2 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:22 am

My guess is 3489.24

runner3081
Posts: 2696
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by runner3081 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:23 am

2,115.35

User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Moderator
Posts: 6862
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:50 am
Location: In the middle of five acres of woods in East Tennessee

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:24 am

I'll once again be a contrarian, and guess at 2261.54
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

bgf
Posts: 1178
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:35 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bgf » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:24 am

3683.09
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

Silverado
Posts: 246
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silverado » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:25 am

3544.76


That is the same as I put in the other thread.

Mars9800
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:14 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mars9800 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:25 am

3,490

drdrgolf
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:17 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by drdrgolf » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:26 am

3585.
Dominic

User avatar
JPH
Posts: 952
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:56 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JPH » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:29 am

3153.36
While the moments do summersaults into eternity | Cling to their coattails and beg them to stay - Townes Van Zandt

veggivet
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:07 pm
Location: New England

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by veggivet » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:29 am

3567.89
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

calendario
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by calendario » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:31 am

3381.01

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 12978
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by nedsaid » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:32 am

My prediction is that the S&P 500 will wind up at 3,600 for 2020. I further predict that Taylor's 3 Fund Portfolio book will top the New York Times best seller list in 2020. I will step out even further and predict that the Great Swedroe and the Value Premium will finally arrive in 2020, at the precise time that Taylor hits Number One on the NYT best seller list. I will be there faithfully waiting in the Pumpkin Patch with my security blanket. The great Nedsaid, who knows all and sees all, has made his predictions with his amazing psychic powers.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Emeralds
Posts: 27
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:41 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Emeralds » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:32 am

3488.62

sambb
Posts: 2693
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sambb » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:33 am

3529.28

Minty
Posts: 288
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:19 pm
Location: NorCal

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Minty » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:34 am

3553.86
Core Four with nominal bonds and TIPS.

User avatar
augryphon
Posts: 124
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:35 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by augryphon » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:35 am

3,411.70

abner kravitz
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue May 05, 2015 7:42 am
Location: Beaufort County, SC

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by abner kravitz » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:35 am

3000.00

User avatar
LittleGreenSoldiers
Posts: 135
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:59 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:36 am

3808.32

tanstaafl
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:25 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tanstaafl » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:38 am

3106.5

User avatar
tnbison
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:57 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tnbison » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:38 am

3360.40

javabean
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:57 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by javabean » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:39 am

3972.00

User avatar
Bodacious
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:12 am
Location: Coachella Valley, CA

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Bodacious » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:39 am

My guess is 3876

jmg229
Posts: 323
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:21 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jmg229 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:40 am

3392.32

Windylotus
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:49 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Windylotus » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:40 am

3,521.55

Suntan1
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:34 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Suntan1 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:40 am

3550.71

User avatar
spdoublebass
Posts: 605
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2017 10:04 pm
Location: NY

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by spdoublebass » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:41 am

$3456.78
I'm trying to think, but nothing happens

Jimmie
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:05 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Jimmie » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:43 am

3505.39

And Taylor forgot to mention the Grand Prize: bragging rights.

offthetop
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:46 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by offthetop » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:43 am

3611.27

Unladen_Swallow
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:12 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:45 am

3448.4
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

HomeStretch
Posts: 3517
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:06 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by HomeStretch » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:46 am

3502

And may the market outperform my 2020 entry as much as it did my 2019 entry...

OhBoyUhoh
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:16 pm
Location: SW Ohio

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by OhBoyUhoh » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:47 am

3477.43

bac573
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2007 8:04 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bac573 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:47 am

3372.93
One thing to know about this town; not a person doesn't want me underground.

User avatar
H-Dog
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by H-Dog » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:48 am

3034.75

Johnny Thinwallet
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2012 6:07 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johnny Thinwallet » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:50 am

3589.76
Last edited by Johnny Thinwallet on Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
sperry8
Posts: 2000
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sperry8 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:50 am

3498.24
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282

tsohg
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:30 am

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tsohg » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:52 am

3480.

User avatar
2pedals
Posts: 989
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:31 pm

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 2pedals » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:53 am

3535.
Last edited by 2pedals on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Post Reply