Favorite stock(s) and why

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HomerJ
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by HomerJ »

adamb wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:34 pm Thanks all, especially those who responded with something other than VTSAX, etc.

AAPL and MSFT are on the short list. Will look into the others.
The people who responded VTSAX are trying to help you.

You will be far better off listening to the VTSAX people than the individual stock people.

Seriously... Most of us were individual stock people at one point. Then we got wise, and then we got rich.

Edit: It appears this just a play account. Good luck I guess. The way you laid it out, it won't be much fun. You've done the fun part... picking 10 stocks... Now it's just going to sit there for the next 10 years, just like a index fund would for you.

Doubt you'll get much joy from this.

(And 10 bucks says you'll tinker with it over the next 10 years).

Quick question... How did you find Bogleheads, and why did you start off posting individual stock questions here, of all the investing forums on the Internet?
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

ultraviolet wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:17 am I owned most of those picks. They’re all great companies. I would wait for a dip to get AMD and NVDA. Like right now might be a decent time. However they’re very closely tied to China so you might want to wait and see how the next few weeks plays out.

Amazon in my opinion is going to keep losing online sales to target and Wal-Mart. So I don’t think it’ll grow as rapidly over the next ten years. I think it’ll end up a hodge-podge of overpriced services and counterfeit junk. But what do I know? I sold most of what I had and bought the S&P index.
Thanks for the advice.

Backing into Amazon --

I don't own Google (individually) for several reasons. I don't believe they have strong growth potential. They're leadership doesn't return a dividend. They're one of the largest and most visible targets of the anti-tech animus we see playing out in Washington (Warren) and more relevantly across europe. And they're largely excuded from the chinese market.

Amazon is similar in some ways. They're very large, having grown significantly in the past 20 years. No dividend. They're also a very visible target (see black friday protests in france). I don't like that they make so much shipping waste. Etc. The three differentiating factors for me are that they have a leader with a proven track record of thinking for the long term growth of the company, two underlying functions that are non-retail, Amazon Web Services and content libraries, and they seem to be successful in the subscription business. Still, this is my most uncomfortable 10% allocation.
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LilyFleur
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by LilyFleur »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:05 pm
adamb wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:34 pm Thanks all, especially those who responded with something other than VTSAX, etc.

AAPL and MSFT are on the short list. Will look into the others.
The people who responded VTSAX are trying to help you.

You will be far better off listening to the VTSAX people than the individual stock people.

Seriously... Most of us were individual stock people at one point. Then we got wise, and then we got rich.

Edit: It appears that you are already rich, and this just a play account. Good luck I guess. The way you laid it out, it won't be much fun. You've done the fun part... picking 10 stocks... Now it's just going to sit there for the next 10 years, just like a index fund would for you.

Doubt you'll get much joy from this.
Stocks, then wise, then rich. (?)
Not necessarily. and not necessarily in that order.
But, clearly, most of us are here now because of a desire for a safe asset allocation.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

finfire wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:41 am Visa.
Why? Because I hold it and it's done well.
Works for me. :)
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HomerJ
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by HomerJ »

LilyFleur wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:12 pmNot necessarily. and not necessarily in that order.
True enough... People get rich for all kinds of reasons. Even occasionally from picking individual stocks. And wise is never guaranteed :)

But it's been a LOT easier to get rich slowly using just VTSAX than trying to pick individual stocks.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
RadAudit
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by RadAudit »

Couldn't decide on a favorite stock, so, I purchased two mutual funds that have ~ 10k stocks in total.
Last edited by RadAudit on Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:05 pm Edit: It appears this just a play account. Good luck I guess.
Yes and thanks. This is only a few percent of my portfolio, but $10k + $50k over the next decade as I'm planning motivates me to think more critically about my choices than a true zero value play account would. In particular, now that trading is essentially free, I'm curious to learn how M1's auto balance feature can be tweaked and optimized. Much of my education is in optimization, and this is both a real ($) and academic curiosity.
HomerJ wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:05 pm Doubt you'll get much joy from this.
I know I've already enjoyed reading about these companies. Just thinking about it motivated me to read extra textbooks on linear and non-linear programming (optimization) and algorithm design. And in ten years, either I'll win by having more money or I'll win by being glad I've stayed 90% invested in VTSAX. You don't seem to be getting much joy out of this, but that's not really my concern.
HomerJ wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:05 pm (And 10 bucks says you'll tinker with it over the next 10 years).
Certainly, I've done very well throwing money at the broad market when it tanks, and I see no reason to do anything different with this. I'll maintain the same funding level in a VTSAX account so the result is an apples to apples comparison.

[Edit: I should be clear: I've had a weekly or monthly automated investment putting my income into VTSAX or similar for the last decade. My wife and I also tend to hold too much cash in my opinion, typically $20k in our checking on top of our emergency fund. I increase our automatic investment amount when the market tanks, pretend I don't notice our checking going below its normal level, and reset out automatic investment levels once the market rebounds. This made a significant difference in our returns when our portfolios were much smaller.]
HomerJ wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:05 pm Quick question... How did you find Bogleheads, and why did you start off posting individual stock questions here, of all the investing forums on the Internet?
I don't remember where I've found it, but I think I started reading Boggleheads maybe 10 years ago, once I saved enough to have $3k in a vanguard account. For context, I started investing at Schwab when I was young and in the Navy. They had a 2% cash back credit card, reimbursed all ATM fees, and I could hold an index fund with $100. I learned about Fidelity because my wife's company had a 401k there. We moved our accounts to vanguard when we had enough (>$3,000) for the fund minimums. That was "years ago" now, eleven years when I started at Schwab.

I post individual stock questions here for the same reason I post cash management and asset allocation questions -- I value BH opinions more than people who stock pick for a living. Moreover, judging by the responses and PMs I received, many people here own individual stocks.

Does it bother you that I ask questions about individual stocks here?
Scooter57
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Scooter57 »

When you buy Total Stock Market or S&P 500 funds you are investing a significant part of each dollar in MSFT, AAPL, Amazon, Google, Facebook and five other mega companies,which together absorb 19.4 cents of every dollar you put into the fund. So though you think you are "buying the whole market" you are actually investing a lot of your money in a limited number of favorite stocks without, perhaps, realizing it.
EdNorton
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by EdNorton »

adamb wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:57 pm
EdNorton wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:21 am I would not recommend NVDA at this time. I purchased in January of 2016, 1000 shares @ $30, have realized gains of $210k, still have $20k worth of NVDA. My recommendation is SRPT, but be prepared for some volatility. Good luck to you.
Thanks for this. I've been back and forth on AMD and NVDA.

SRPT seems interesting, but for me it's too speculative. I dislike pharma as a class, and SRPT is still pre-profitability.
Look at BOLD's price movement today, it is still "pre-profitability" . :sharebeer
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nguy44
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by nguy44 »

Of the few stocks I still own in my play account, the two favorite are the ones I have held the longest - Microsoft and Oracle. Bought were purchased back in the early 1990s, and I wisely have held them When I retired I did sell a little of each just to celebrate, but I still have lots of gains in them.

I cant say I did that for other stocks I bought, which is why I stopped playing with individual stocks and became a Boglehead. :happy
matthewmon
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by matthewmon »

Welltower it's a reit that has a good dividend and is a play on the baby boomers getting older but it's only 5% of portfolio and I am selling options against it now to make extra money and when I get called out from my original position of 200 shares I'll just keep the free shares that were bought with dividends.
illumination
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by illumination »

Apple.

I still think it's "cheap" compared to its peers, lowest PE ratio to all the other FAANG stocks.
Enormous cash pile on hand, around $210 billion.
Maybe the most loyal customers of any company on the planet.
Huge potential with services like cloud, entertainment and banking that could dwarf their hardware business.
Has shown ability to charge premium prices relative to competition.
Likely to see a large upgrade cycle for consumers with 5G network.

There's definitely risks, like manufacturing and their supply chain, but if someone put a gun to my head and made me pick a stock I think will outperform, it's that one.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

EdNorton wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:22 pm Look at BOLD's price movement today, it is still "pre-profitability" . :sharebeer
That's incredible.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

Thanks everyone for your thoughts and contributions.

I'm going to set this up for an arbitrary start in January. Two taxable accounts, one 100% VTSAX and one 10 stock "pie" on M1, $10k to start + $100/wk for 10 years. Dividends reinvested, rebalanced periodically, etc.

I'll start a new post with the specifics and update it every 6 to 12 months.

Thanks again.
lgs88
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by lgs88 »

Ormat (ORA) -- I passed one of their geothermal plants in the desert a couple years ago and was so impressed with the Martian look and scale of the complex that I bought $1,000 or so of the stock on the spot. It has done fine.
merely an interested amateur
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cheese_breath
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by cheese_breath »

Chicken stock when making soup from Thanksgiving turkey leftovers.
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dreamjob9
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by dreamjob9 »

Redfin. I own A LOT!

I believe they become the Amazon of real estate.
Small Savanna
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Small Savanna »

Others have said it, but AAPL. Bought on 6 October 2008, before the split, basis is $13.16 a share. I'm happy to be lucky, but it's the only reason that my long term portfolio performance hasn't been worse than the S&P 500. To balance out the story, I also bought stock in Boston Market which became worthless, and I'm still in the red on GE. Even AAPL makes me nervous - I've sold some and would sell more if it weren't for the capital gain.

The only other individual stocks that I still feel good about are insurance companies - Travelers (TRV) and AFLAC (AFL). They have reasonable PEs, pay a dividend, have steadily gone up over the years, and seem somewhat resistant to ups and downs in the economy. In a recession, people stop buying new cars, but mostly keep up with their insurance premiums.

At this point, individual stocks are about 15% of our total portfolio, and I'd like to drive that toward zero over time. I'm taking it slow to delay the capital gains hit.
honduranhurricane
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by honduranhurricane »

apple, disney and utx are my fav's right now,,,boeing on the list as well. like msft too, but missed that one (I think).
fuddbogle
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by fuddbogle »

100 Shares of Carnival (CCL).

You get $100 credit per cabin for a 7 day cruise if you own 100 shares or more. I don’t think it’s going to be (or has been) much of a money making stock but it keeps me grounded watching it and makes the “free” drinks on the ship taste especially good. Going on our 4th NYE cruise very soon.
Sinsji
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Sinsji »

adamb wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:49 pm
Sinsji wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:08 am So out of 'curiosity' you want to allocate 10.000 dollar to ten specific companies?
In some sense, yes. I'm curious if I can pick a handful of stocks and manage them in a way that will beat my more traditional boggleheaded holdings in VTSAX and VTIAX over the next 10 years, and I'm willing to put a small portion of my portfolio behind that curiosity.
Sinsji wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:08 am In you're opening post you state reasons to 'like' a company. Without being a wise ass: there are many reasons to 'like' a company, especially within a short timeframe. I can like Disney for there latest movie or Amazon for good sales on black friday. Probably the only one you care about is risk and return in the long term?
On the other hand, I stumbled upon FISV while ripping through the top 100 holdings in VGT and was curious what strategy has driven such a consistently profitable trend. Total returns over the past 25 years annualize to 17.95%. This doesn't beat Apple (24.2%) over the same period, but it beats Microsoft (16.5%) and crushes the S&P500 (9.13%) and Dow 30 (8.16%). It also has a curiously low beta (0.85).

YMMV
All good and I hope it works out for you. My main point was that a lot of these holdings already form a large part of the index. To what extend can you expect above average returns from these individual stocks? They are essentially already dictating the index themselves (MSFT, AMZN etc).
Wouldn't regression to the mean be as least as likely as continued above average growth? It is hard for large companies to grow and find good investments apparently. Buffett wrote a lot about this.

Thanks for mentioning FISV though. Never heard about them and always interested in learning:)
iamlucky13
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by iamlucky13 »

Greenbrier (GBX), because

(a) I'm crazy enough to play with a small proportion of my money

(b) I'm delusional enough to think efficiency demand in freight correlates with energy prices, but rail equipment demand lags slightly as the market digests information. I guess I'm banking on the market being only approximately efficient.

(c) Because Warren Buffet also believes (b), as suggested by Berkshire Hathaway buying 100% of Union Tank Car.

I cut my holding significantly a while back at a good time. It is down a lot now. I honestly don't know if I will buy again. My interest in playing with individual stocks has waned a lot recently, and I haven't had time lately to take a close look at how the fracking industry is doing. Also, I haven't properly compared my performance with it to VTSAX.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

Sinsji wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:05 am All good and I hope it works out for you. My main point was that a lot of these holdings already form a large part of the index. To what extend can you expect above average returns from these individual stocks? They are essentially already dictating the index themselves (MSFT, AMZN etc).
Wouldn't regression to the mean be as least as likely as continued above average growth? It is hard for large companies to grow and find good investments apparently. Buffett wrote a lot about this.

Thanks for mentioning FISV though. Never heard about them and always interested in learning:)
They do (form a large part of the index), but I'm not understanding why there can be no expectation of above average returns. MSFT is the largest at 3.6% of VTSAX. If we pretend the market (-MSFT) average return was 0% and MSFT returned 28%, then MSFT would return 27% above the total market average. These stocks are large but not dictating the index themselves large. The top three (MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN) are less than 10% together.

It is hard for large companies to grow and find good investments, but I'm not sure how that implies regression to the mean for stock returns is at least as likely as continued above average growth. I'm also not sure that it matters as long as a company is continuously profitable and returns that money through a dividend or share repurchase program. None of this is to say it isn't true, or isn't at all points. I'm just not understanding why I should look at a company that's had double digit earnings growth for 30 consecutive years and think hmm... average returns on the horizon.

YW on FISV. I hadn't either, and it seems like an interesting company.
phxjcc
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by phxjcc »

BOA
Good DRIP program.
At some point I have to believe they will split off ML.
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LiveSimple
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by LiveSimple »

Here is my "Scratch the Itch Stock Portfolio" when the brokerage firm announced zero cost stock purchases.
Let me tell you this is a learning exercise, I do have some learning to see how the stock market reacts at the same time, do not enjoy the time and anxiety involved in this selection and purchase. I am on and off back to my regular index fund automatic purchase.
The current plan is to purchase 25% of the taxable investment in these stocks.

Any day will sell all and purchase the index fund or pay off some of the mortgage.

Just tried to put a diversified portfolio of taking the top stocks in each sector. Enjoy what you can....

AAPL APPLE INC COM USD0.00001
ABB ABB LTD SPONSORED ADR
ABBV ABBVIE INC COM USD0.01
ALL ALLSTATE CORP COM USD0.01
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC COM
AMGN AMGEN INC
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC
ARCC ARES CAPITAL CORP COM STK USD0.001
AZN ASTRAZENECA ADR EACH REP 1 ORD USD0.25 MGT
BABA ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD SPON ADS EACH REP 8 ORD SHS
BAH BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HLDG CORP CL A
BIIB BIOGEN INC COM USD0.0005
BRKB BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC COM USD0.0033 CLASS B
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COM USD0.01
DEO DIAGEO ADR EACH REPR 4 ORD GBX28.935185
DIS DISNEY WALT CO
FNCMX FIDELITY NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
GOOGL ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL A
GSK GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC SPONSORED ADR
HD HOME DEPOT INC COM
HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC COM USD1
INTC INTEL CORP COM USD0.001
ITOT ISHARES CORE S&P TOTAL US STOCK MARKET ETF
JNJ JOHNSON &JOHNSON COM USD1.00
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO COM USD1.00
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC COM USD0.005
MKC MCCORMICK &COMPANY INC COM NPV
MMM 3M COMPANY
MOH MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP
NSRGY NESTLE S A SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORP
NVS NOVARTIS A G SPONSORED ADR
ORCL ORACLE CORP COM
RHHBY ROCHE HLDG LTD SPONSORED ADR
T AT&T INC COM USD1
TDY TELEDYNE TECH INC
TM TOYOTA MOTOR CORP SP ADR REP2COM
TRI THOMSON-REUTERS CORP COM NPV(POST REV SPLIT) ISIN #CA8849037
UHT UNIVERSAL HEALTH RLTY INCM TR SH BEN INT
VTI VANGUARD INDEX FDS VANGUARD TOTAL STK MKT ETF
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS
WST WEST PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP
ZBRA ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP CL A
Last edited by LiveSimple on Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
bck63
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by bck63 »

TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:46 pm Never understood why people respond to questions about individual stocks with irrelevant answers trying to show off how they ignore individual stocks and only invest in diversified funds. Reeks of people trying to show off how special they are.
Maybe they're trying to teach OP something -- that buying individual stocks is nothing but gambling and can be devastating to one's savings.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

bck63 wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:43 am
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:46 pm Never understood why people respond to questions about individual stocks with irrelevant answers trying to show off how they ignore individual stocks and only invest in diversified funds. Reeks of people trying to show off how special they are.
Maybe they're trying to teach OP something -- that buying individual stocks is nothing but gambling and can be devastating to one's savings.
+1
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by UpperNwGuy »

phxjcc wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:16 am BOA
Good DRIP program.
At some point I have to believe they will split off ML.
Why do you think they will split off ML?
Culbretd
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Culbretd »

mortfree wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.
Curious, at what price did you buy SiriusXM (Siri) at? I have a small position in this stock myself it has paid off nicely (just been letting the gains/profits ride). They just agreed to start buying back shares from Liberty SiriusXM (Malone and Company). I totally support that and hope they continue to decrease Malone’s share count.
Target2019
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Target2019 »

O - Realty Income is a company to consider.
VZ T SO also may fit.
rascott
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by rascott »

bck63 wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:43 am
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:46 pm Never understood why people respond to questions about individual stocks with irrelevant answers trying to show off how they ignore individual stocks and only invest in diversified funds. Reeks of people trying to show off how special they are.
Maybe they're trying to teach OP something -- that buying individual stocks is nothing but gambling and can be devastating to one's savings.

A portfolio of 20-30 stocks is not "gambling".... assuming they aren't penny stocks or something.... they aren't going to "devastate" anything. You could likely throw a dart at a list of 30 stocks and end up tracking the overall market fairly well.

There are plenty of reasons why it's not advisable compared to indexing..... but sometimes I think people here make pretty extreme statements.
rascott
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by rascott »

I've gone back and forth with individual stocks over the years. The biggest issue is that it's a ton of work. Just buying and forgetting is not a wise strategy at all when it's only a small group of stocks.

You have to actually pay attention to what's going on... when I've done that, I've done fairly well..... but inevitably life gets in the way.... you kind of forget about the portfolio for a while..... you come back to some carnage that happened to a few names that you would have dumped if you had been paying attention. And then regret sets in.
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watchnerd
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by watchnerd »

adamb wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm Hi Bogleheads,

What is(are) your favorite stock(s) and why?

I know and largely follow the long-term highly diversified investment philosophy, but I suspect many of you have play accounts and am curious what you're invested in and why. For a quirky example, my wife and I hold Disney (DIS) not for their large IP portfolio but because my wife likes Mickey. More seriously, I hold Visa (V) because of it's low interest rate risk and consistently strong EPS numbers.

I'm curious because I'm thinking about crowdsourcing a 10 year M1 portfolio with 7 to 10 picks.

Thank you.

Best,
My employer's stock because my ESPP lets me buy it at a 10% discount.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
oilrig
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by oilrig »

I love big oil stocks: BP and Shell (RDS.B). Both are around 6.5% dividend and "stable" for oil stocks.
aerosurfer
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by aerosurfer »

I have had a great ride the last 3 years with Heico HEI & HEI.A. Aircraft parts supplier. Skirts way under the radar of Boeing’s shadow, which I like. Had been strong and fiscally smart for a long time.
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snackdog
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by snackdog »

I like any stock which doubles within the first year I own it. Sell half and carry on.
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by bloom2708 »

My favorite stock is Ford (F).

It is actually a terrible stock to own (sort of). My grandpa drove Fords. My dad drives Fords. I have Fords. I like the company.

I only own it inside the Total US Stock index mutual fund. Favorite maybe doesn't mean great to own. Although F does pay a nice dividend.
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athan
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by athan »

"the drugs in their pipeline are excellent and second to none." I read up on this and agree but decided not to invest because in the best case scenario, that they cure cancer, I don't believe they should take (or governments would allow) huge profits."

Agen: Agreed that best case scenario they cure Cancer...but this aint happening any time soon. What will happen is new meds will help prolong lives, and increase survival rates. Different medications will work with different types of Cancers. Also, medications will be combined with other medications, and even with Chemo/radiation. The point being that Agenus has a better pipeline than any other Immunooncology company (including the big companies).

If you are looking for a $10,000 investment to make real money, you need to find a company with a chance to grow, like Agenus. If they get approval next year, their stock and market cap will skyrocket, leading to a buyout most likely.

For reference, check out the growth of Keytruda over the last couple years. A drug approval like this could increase the market cap of Agenus by 10 times...and that is only 1 drug approval.
Busdrvr
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Busdrvr »

I also max out my espp program, but generally sell at first opportunity. This allows me to fund my Roth and taxable account where I own AAPL, COST, IHI, VCLT, UPRO, TQQQ, and EDV.

My favorite 401k fund is PRNHX where DXCM is a holding. Am considering a small stake there. The USA is a country of metabolic syndrome. Fortunate to be getting cash over cap from Megacorp after 415c limit and probably have too much cash so your idea seems like a good one to me. Following.

Go BADGERS!!
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watchnerd
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by watchnerd »

Busdrvr wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:33 pm I also max out my espp program, but generally sell at first opportunity.
If by "first opportunity" you mean 1 year after the purchase and 2 years after the beginning of the offer period, to reduce the tax burden, I do the same.

Others sell at the first opportunity and pay the higher ordinary income tax rate on the gains.

It's a good drinking game to debate the trade-off between concentrated stock risk and price decline risk vs taxes.

IMHO, it's all proportional to how much of one's portfolio the ESPP + RSUs represent.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
Busdrvr
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Busdrvr »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:44 pm
Busdrvr wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:33 pm I also max out my espp program, but generally sell at first opportunity.
If by "first opportunity" you mean 1 year after the purchase and 2 years after the beginning of the offer period, to reduce the tax burden, I do the same.

Others sell at the first opportunity and pay the higher ordinary income tax rate on the gains.

It's a good drinking game to debate the trade-off between concentrated stock risk and price decline risk vs taxes.

IMHO, it's all proportional to how much of one's portfolio the ESPP + RSUs represent.
Even with a look back there has not been a great opportunity to hold and obtain gains much above the 15% discount since I’ve been able to participate. So I take my lumps on the discount and look for better opportunities in companies with higher growth and outside my industry which is historically risky anyway. So I’m happy to buy the first round. :sharebeer
guyinlaw
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by guyinlaw »

Yes, I also have bought individual stocks, stock options etc.. I do have have some FB and GOOG that I couldn't resist buying when they dropped last year. I have tried to avoid for the last year..

Now whenever I have the itch to buy I watch this video.

Starts with "You cannot evaluate an investment decision based on its outcome."

How to Evaluate Your Investment Decisions - Ben Felix
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
yogesh
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by yogesh »

At some point my 401K and taxable both had 100% my employer company stock :-(
Then employer changed 401K defaults to Target Date funds :-)
Then I changed my taxable to broad market index funds :-)
Now I will never hold individual stock in life and my IPS says the same!
Emergency: FDIC | Taxable: VTMFX | Retirement: TR2040
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NRI
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by NRI »

DAL, KHC @ low, TEVA @ low, GS, AAPL.

Great companies, great managers, moats, and a good price at the time of purchase. These are long holds.

:beer
mortfree
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by mortfree »

Culbretd wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:07 am
mortfree wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.
Curious, at what price did you buy SiriusXM (Siri) at? I have a small position in this stock myself it has paid off nicely (just been letting the gains/profits ride). They just agreed to start buying back shares from Liberty SiriusXM (Malone and Company). I totally support that and hope they continue to decrease Malone’s share count.
One of my investing fails. I followed the stock closely down to $0.10 or so. I didn’t buy again until it was $2.00.

The first lots were purchased for around $3.80 or so. That was pre-Howard Stern announcement and pre-bankruptcy, pre-merger. Held all the way down and all the way back up. Just didn’t gamble enough on that one.
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calmaniac
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by calmaniac »

adamb wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:29 pm Does it bother you that I ask questions about individual stocks here?
No, but it is curious. Asking this on Bogleheads is kind of like going to a fundamentalist religious discussion board and asking the group about their favorite porn site. You do see the irony. :)

That said, we may "hate the sin, but love the sinner". Please feel comfortable here asking questions and expressing your views.

I started investing in the mid-90's and stocks were the largest part of my portfolio. I've seen enough of the haphazard nature of individual stock returns and read enough good books to realize my success was largely luck. Ultimately, the evidence base behind index investing makes much more sense to me.

That said, I can see if you are interested in understanding how companies are valued, how you might want to have some skin in the game and invest/speculate in individual stocks with 2% of your assets. It's not like you are going to grow hair on your palms from it!

However, if you are going to spend the time and energy it would take, I'd first ask if you've spent that same amount of time on reading some quality investing books. If not, I would start there as this is much more important than learning about individual companies.

Some of my favorites are:
1. A Random Walk Down Wall Street - by Burton Malkiel
2. The Four Pillars of Investing- William Bernstein
3. How to Think About Money- Jonathan Clements

There are also many posts on the site addressing favorite investing/finance books as well as the Wiki:
https://www.bogleheads.org/readbooks.htm
63 yo,1y til go part-time. AA 70/30: 30% S&P, 16% value, 14% intl, 10% EM, 30% short/int govt bonds. My mil pension + DW's now ≈60% of expenses. Taking SS @age 70--> pension+SS ≈100% of expenses.
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watchnerd
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by watchnerd »

calmaniac wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:46 pm
adamb wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:29 pm Does it bother you that I ask questions about individual stocks here?
No, but it is curious. Asking this on Bogleheads is kind of like going to a fundamentalist religious discussion board and asking the group about their favorite porn site. You do see the irony. :)
Well, yeah, but....

Didn't Jack Bogle himself say something to the effect that it was okay to have a "play account" as long as it was <5% of your portfolio, a place to safely vent your speculative urges and get it out of your system, instead of trying to exercise those whims on your main port?
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
Case59
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Case59 »

.65% of my portfolio is in Google and BKR-B--legacy stocks from the time when I had a stock account, before moving into index funds. I hung onto these two thinking they would be good for the long-term, which has been largely true (not counting the occasional Kraft-Heinz deal).
"Most quotations on the internet are incorrect."-Mark Twain
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

Case59 wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:21 pm .65% of my portfolio is in Google and BKR-B--legacy stocks from the time when I had a stock account, before moving into index funds. I hung onto these two thinking they would be good for the long-term, which has been largely true (not counting the occasional Kraft-Heinz deal).
Your total assets value must be huge or you started with incredibly small amounts of Google and BKR-B. I haven't checked, but I'd assume they've outperformed the average market over the past 20 or 30 years.
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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb »

athan wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:17 pm "the drugs in their pipeline are excellent and second to none." I read up on this and agree but decided not to invest because in the best case scenario, that they cure cancer, I don't believe they should take (or governments would allow) huge profits."

Agen: Agreed that best case scenario they cure Cancer...but this aint happening any time soon. What will happen is new meds will help prolong lives, and increase survival rates. Different medications will work with different types of Cancers. Also, medications will be combined with other medications, and even with Chemo/radiation. The point being that Agenus has a better pipeline than any other Immunooncology company (including the big companies).

If you are looking for a $10,000 investment to make real money, you need to find a company with a chance to grow, like Agenus. If they get approval next year, their stock and market cap will skyrocket, leading to a buyout most likely.

For reference, check out the growth of Keytruda over the last couple years. A drug approval like this could increase the market cap of Agenus by 10 times...and that is only 1 drug approval.
This is interesting but quite speculative for my current project. (I am tempted to invest 1% in Agen with the possible upside being a total portfolio gain of 2-5%? but will hold off for now.)

My logic may be flawed in many ways, but my intent was to stick with companies that are presently profitable with the perhaps incorrect assumption that they're remain profitable for the next decade.

I don't see a world in which Disney loses profitability, etc. I can see a world in which Agen goes out of business entirely.

I'll have to noodle on this.
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