What do you think about Dan Wiener

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lepa71
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What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 am

Just thinking it is another little sale but what do you guys think
This is not an ad.
https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 712&page=3
Last edited by lepa71 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

livesoft
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by livesoft » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:46 am

So another advertisement posted on a non-commercial message forum. Oh, well.

I think anybody that old that has to work and advertise doesn't have any business giving investment advice that they think they should get paid for.
Last edited by livesoft on Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:47 am

This is NOT meant to be an ad.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Sheepdog » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:49 am

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 am
Just thinking it is another little sale but what do you guys think
This is not an ad.
https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 712&page=3
Very few Bogleheads would take his advice. Search Dan Wiener on this site to read many past conversations. You may have to make your own decision.
Just because it isn't your fault doesn't mean it isn't your responsibility....Josh Reid Jones

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by KlangFool » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:49 am

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:47 am
This is NOT meant to be an ad.
I disagreed. It is an ad.

KlangFool

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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:51 am

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:49 am
lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:47 am
This is NOT meant to be an ad.
I disagreed. It is an ad.

KlangFool
I'm not gaining anything from it. I just wanted an opinion. I do like to hear different perspectives on the same thing.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by coffeeblack » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:52 am

For about 100 dollars he will make you 3x times your investment in 20 years. What a guru. He knows what will happen in 20 years. His magic is amazing. So powerful. It will only cost you 100 bucks. How generous of him. And when it fails he can say you chose to invest, you took the risk. No promises. You should ask him is he has a fund set up so if he does not make you 3x as much he can make up the difference. :twisted:

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by surfstar » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:54 am

I think that any website that is formatted in that way is snake oil/scam/etc and is simply an online version of the crazy ads that used to run on late-night TV.
A recent example I'm reminded of is/was Trump Bonus Checks. I heard an early morning AM radio ad, had my wife look up the website after - we were very entertained to say the least. Single page website, just keep scrolling down. and down. and down.

OP's link is similar. Crazy end-of-world headline formatting. No real info, just send me the money and I'll tell you everything you need to know.


OP even if you didn't intend to SPAM the forum, that is how it feels because that site is horrible and offers nothing of value.

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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:00 am

I think I got the picture. Thank you, guys.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by nisiprius » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:15 am

1) "If you’re interested in tripling your profits on every dollar invested with Vanguard, you’ll want to read this message from beginning to end" is obviously too good to be true. Until you read it closely and realize that he has not said that "if you follow my advice you will triple your profits."

2) This isn't the Vanguardheads forum, this is the Bogleheads forum. Bogle was not doctrinaire, and respectful of actively managed funds provided they kept expenses low and practiced "investing, not speculating." But I don't think you will find anything, anywhere where John C. Bogle suggests that you could do three times as well by using Vanguard active funds instead of index funds.

3) I suggest you consider this decision top down, most important first.

First: completely forgetting the names "Wiener" and "Vanguard," are you convinced that (the right) actively managed funds are so much better than index funds that you are committed to investing in active funds? If not, stop right there.

Second: If you have decided, for whatever reason, to favor actively managed funds, do you want to limit yourself to Vanguard's actively managed funds? Why on earth would you do that?

Consider what John C. Bogle wrote at the very end of his last book, Stay the Course: (nope, I still haven't read all of it but I did skip to the end!)
T. Rowe Price: This is a firm that I've always admired--right up there with Dodge and Cox and Dimensional Fund Advisers--for professional conduct, low-key marketing (or none), and good people.
Doesn't it seem likely to you that companies Bogle praised and respected might have some good funds, too?
Last edited by nisiprius on Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by magicrat » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:38 am

My opinion is that if a person is unable to quickly identify that this type of thing is nonsense, then that person should spend some time reading up on why people fall for scams, commit behavioral errors, succumb to decision biases, believes obvious lies, etc. Doing so could actually be a high ROI on that person's time.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by nisiprius » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:42 am

He says "See the green arrows? They represent extra “profit wedges” enjoyed by those who followed my Growth Model Portfolio."

Image

No, I don't see the green arrows.

Do you see any green arrows?

No green arrows. Where are the green arrows? Where are the "profit wedges?"

The emperor has no wedges.

Apart from that, we can read the chart well enough to estimate that his "growth model portfolio" fell from $1 million to $600,000 during 2008-2009, a -40% decline, the "average Vanguard investor" fell from $400,000 to $320,000 or $310,000, a -22% or -25% decline. It's pretty darn obvious that he's comparing a less risky (green) portfolio to a more risky (red) one. Apples-to-habanero-peppers.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by BogleMelon » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:57 am

Deleted
Last edited by BogleMelon on Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by prudent » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:04 pm

Let's stipulate that the OP was asking for help in understanding the linked content and not trying to advocate for anything.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:05 pm

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 am
Just thinking it is another little sale but what do you guys think
This is not an ad.
https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 712&page=3
A slimy guy. It is an ad. Look at the Website: orders.investorplace.com.

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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:15 pm

prudent wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:04 pm
Let's stipulate that the OP was asking for help in understanding the linked content and not trying to advocate for anything.
Thank you.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:25 pm

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 am
Just thinking it is another little sale but what do you guys think
This is not an ad.
https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 712&page=3
Dan wiener has recommended both Primecap and Capital Opportunity and POAGX Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund well before it closed due to outstanding performance.

Here is what Mr. Bogle had to say about Primecap and related.
http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-cont

Some things never seem to change. My perception is that the above link with Jack Bogle serving as a "cheerleader" for Primecap and Capital Opportunity and his long term ownership of Wellington clearly show that Jack Bogle was much more open minded on "Active Management" than many (Dare I say most?) on this forum understand. As previously stated countless times, by Mr. Bogle "costs matter".

Vanguard does indeed provide a few relatively low cost active funds that are excellent choices for some. Those who want to insist that indexing is the only intelligent choice to make versus active management are not themselves in full agreement with Jack Bogle. However, my personal point of view is that it does not matter if some perceived expert believes certain things. What matters is that an individual reviews their own situation, considers available choices, and decides on an investing path they are comfortable with following.

The search function allows a review of numerous previous threads regarding Dan Wiener and/or many different active funds.

hushpuppy
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:29 pm

I'm not trying to say anything but that graph was supposed to be this with green arrows. Also, understand your point on volatility percentage but, if and only IF( that is BIG IF), his chart is correct. He is at 600K( red line) at the bottom for 2008-2009 and "average VG investor" at 300K(blue line) for the same time period. I'm implying anything but I would prefer to be $600L with 40% decline vs $300K with 22-25%. Would you agree?
Image
nisiprius wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:42 am
He says "See the green arrows? They represent extra “profit wedges” enjoyed by those who followed my Growth Model Portfolio."

Image

No, I don't see the green arrows.

Do you see any green arrows?

No green arrows. Where are the green arrows? Where are the "profit wedges?"

The emperor has no wedges.

Apart from that, we can read the chart well enough to estimate that his "growth model portfolio" fell from $1 million to $600,000 during 2008-2009, a -40% decline, the "average Vanguard investor" fell from $400,000 to $320,000 or $310,000, a -22% or -25% decline. It's pretty darn obvious that he's comparing a less risky (green) portfolio to a more risky (red) one. Apples-to-habanero-peppers.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Elysium » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:38 pm

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:29 pm
I'm not trying to say anything but that graph was supposed to be this with green arrows. Also, understand your point on volatility percentage but, if and only IF( that is BIG IF), his chart is correct. He is at 600K( red line) at the bottom for 2008-2009 and "average VG investor" at 300K(blue line) for the same time period. I'm implying anything but I would prefer to be $600L with 40% decline vs $300K with 22-25%. Would you agree?
Image
nisiprius wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:42 am
He says "See the green arrows? They represent extra “profit wedges” enjoyed by those who followed my Growth Model Portfolio."

Image

No, I don't see the green arrows.

Do you see any green arrows?

No green arrows. Where are the green arrows? Where are the "profit wedges?"

The emperor has no wedges.

Apart from that, we can read the chart well enough to estimate that his "growth model portfolio" fell from $1 million to $600,000 during 2008-2009, a -40% decline, the "average Vanguard investor" fell from $400,000 to $320,000 or $310,000, a -22% or -25% decline. It's pretty darn obvious that he's comparing a less risky (green) portfolio to a more risky (red) one. Apples-to-habanero-peppers.
OP, You can track the past performance numbers for all of the Newsletter portfolios by following "Madsinger Monthly Reports". He calls them "Newsletter" portfolios. Find it here: viewtopic.php?t=290200 and here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Madsing ... ly_reports

The important thing you need to note is there is no arguing the newsletter portfolios have had really good past returns. But the question most people have on mind is whether this is something that can continue or not, as it is evident there are two things going on here. 1. They take on more equity risk (clear from the charts). More than the average Boglehead portfolio, it is said that the Growth portfolios are almost all equity. 2. They use active managed funds whenever possible. It is also said many of the funds used are now permanently closed. If you think you can get the same performance it may not be possible because the funds are closed. Lastly, the newsletters approach do not fit in with the Boglehead philosophy of investing. Most Bogleheads believe investment Newsletters are a waste of money and not worth the paper it is printed on. Whether this is good for you or not is something only you can decide.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by jyoung » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:46 pm

This is not at all a technical review, but when I go to the link provided the webpage just "feels" very scammy. Immediately my internet intuition tells me to ignore this as an obvious get rich quick and easy ad full of bs fluff, and definitely not something I would put a dime of my hard earned money into. Again, nothing technical to add and I'm not a web designer, but the whole thing (fonts, graphics, ads-within-ads, etc) just feel "off" to me for what it's worth.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by garlandwhizzer » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:20 pm

If Mr. Wiener knows how to reliably make Vanguard pay you triple your money in any market (his claim) the question that arises is why is he sharing this outperformance insight with you whom he doesn't even know? Why not keep these excess profits for himself and prevent future overgrazing of the strategy? Perhaps he's just extremely altruistic. More likely not.

Garland Whizzer

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:28 pm

Elysium wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:38 pm
lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:29 pm
I'm not trying to say anything but that graph was supposed to be this with green arrows. Also, understand your point on volatility percentage but, if and only IF( that is BIG IF), his chart is correct. He is at 600K( red line) at the bottom for 2008-2009 and "average VG investor" at 300K(blue line) for the same time period. I'm implying anything but I would prefer to be $600L with 40% decline vs $300K with 22-25%. Would you agree?
Image
nisiprius wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:42 am
He says "See the green arrows? They represent extra “profit wedges” enjoyed by those who followed my Growth Model Portfolio."

Image

No, I don't see the green arrows.

Do you see any green arrows?

No green arrows. Where are the green arrows? Where are the "profit wedges?"

The emperor has no wedges.

Apart from that, we can read the chart well enough to estimate that his "growth model portfolio" fell from $1 million to $600,000 during 2008-2009, a -40% decline, the "average Vanguard investor" fell from $400,000 to $320,000 or $310,000, a -22% or -25% decline. It's pretty darn obvious that he's comparing a less risky (green) portfolio to a more risky (red) one. Apples-to-habanero-peppers.
OP, You can track the past performance numbers for all of the Newsletter portfolios by following "Madsinger Monthly Reports". He calls them "Newsletter" portfolios. Find it here: viewtopic.php?t=290200 and here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Madsing ... ly_reports

The important thing you need to note is there is no arguing the newsletter portfolios have had really good past returns. But the question most people have on mind is whether this is something that can continue or not, as it is evident there are two things going on here. 1. They take on more equity risk (clear from the charts). More than the average Boglehead portfolio, it is said that the Growth portfolios are almost all equity. 2. They use active managed funds whenever possible. It is also said many of the funds used are now permanently closed. If you think you can get the same performance it may not be possible because the funds are closed. Lastly, the newsletters approach do not fit in with the Boglehead philosophy of investing. Most Bogleheads believe investment Newsletters are a waste of money and not worth the paper it is printed on. Whether this is good for you or not is something only you can decide.
I added the bold emphasis to: Lastly, the newsletters approach do not fit in with the Boglehead philosophy of investing. Most Bogleheads believe investment Newsletters are a waste of money and not worth the paper it is printed on. Whether this is good for you or not is something only you can decide.

I would say that many people (bogleheads or not) would prefer to have higher investment returns. Whether these Dan Wiener published, verifiable returns for a couple of decades or more will persist is certainly open to many questions. My thoughts are that the "Boglehead philosophy of investing" is not nearly as pure as most here would like to think. The "Boglehead philosophy of investing" conflicts with some of John Bogle's own statements and holdings, while he lived. For anyone to refuse to acknowledge this "impurity" is to refuse to acknowledge imperfection as a basic truth.

I think that Dan Wiener deserves to be heard. Whether someone then acts on his advice, or purchases his newsletter is a matter of choice. Surprisingly enough, I believe the same for posters at bogleheads.org, but censorship of ideas that do not adhere to the "Boglehead philosophy of investing" is alive and well, despite any protestations to the contrary.

Think independently.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:31 pm

It may all be phony, but it does appear there is important outperformance there from 2000 to 2007. After that, to me, it looks a lot like 100% US equities.

Would I pay for his prognostications about the future? No, of course not.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:38 pm

What do you think about Dan Wiener
lepa71:

Many years ago Mr. Wiener paid me to write a "blind" article about Vanguard's "Transfer on Death" plan for taxable accounts. I wrote the article and accepted his money. :oops:

It is the only money I ever received from anyone on this forum other than royalties from one of my books.

I am grateful to Dan for being paid and I feel an obligation to avoid giving personal opinions about him.

I'll share one incident from my early days: I was in the second row of one of Mr. Wiener's "Money Show" classrooms. Shortly after Dan started speaking, a man in the seat in front of me collapsed unconscious on the floor. An ambulance came and took the unconscious man away.

I never learned whether the man died or not, but trying to be funny, I later said to Mr. Weiner: "Dan, the man died of boredom." He didn't think it funny.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by randomguy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:01 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:46 am
So another advertisement posted on a non-commercial message forum. Oh, well.

I think anybody that old that has to work and advertise doesn't have any business giving investment advice that they think they should get paid for.
So you don't take Warren Buffets advice? Dude is pushing 90 and still working. Bogle was also doing some work up until the end. Probably shouldn't take his advice either:)

It has been a while since i have seen Dan Wieners portfolio but from what I can tell he has been one of the winners. He overweighted things like health care and those bets paid off. Up to you to decide if that is luck or not. I keep voting luck but so far I have been wrong:) To some extent this is like asking why do I invest in total market instead of shoving all my money into health care. Have you seen the comparisons of the 10-20 year returns? Of course I am sure once I buy, that trend will change. I will let everyone know when I capitulate:)

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:32 pm

I will say it. It was hilarious. Thank you.
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:38 pm
What do you think about Dan Wiener
lepa71:

Many years ago Mr. Wiener paid me to write a "blind" article about Vanguard's "Transfer on Death" plan for taxable accounts. I wrote the article and accepted his money. :oops:

It is the only money I ever received from anyone on this forum other than royalties from one of my books.

I am grateful to Dan for being paid and I feel an obligation to avoid giving personal opinions about him.

I'll share one incident from my early days: I was in the second row of one of Mr. Wiener's "Money Show" classrooms. Shortly after Dan started speaking, a man in the seat in front of me collapsed unconscious on the floor. An ambulance came and took the unconscious man away.

I never learned whether the man died or not, but trying to be funny, I later said to Mr. Weiner: "Dan, the man died of boredom." He didn't think it funny.

Best wishes.
Taylor

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by livesoft » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:43 pm

randomguy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:01 pm
livesoft wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:46 am
So another advertisement posted on a non-commercial message forum. Oh, well.

I think anybody that old that has to work and advertise doesn't have any business giving investment advice that they think they should get paid for.
So you don't take Warren Buffets advice? Dude is pushing 90 and still working. Bogle was also doing some work up until the end. Probably shouldn't take his advice either:)
Are these guys advertising to retail investors and getting paid for their investment advice? I thought I made a clear distinction about that.
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:48 pm

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 am
Just thinking it is another little sale but what do you guys think
This is not an ad.
https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 712&page=3
Your thread led to my finding this link:
https://citywireusa.com/professional-bu ... o/a1177133

One quote from link: "The newsletter has grown from eight pages to 16, and subscribers now total 40,000."

Think what ~40,000 times an annual newsletter subscription price brings to the current owner(s).

I actually have had a trial subscription a few years ago, but admit that I wasn't enamored with the associated advertising. However, I believe in giving credit, when due. If I had followed the single recommendation of POAGX, Primecap Odyssey Aggresive Growth Fund, I would have been substantially better off.

Certainly, Mr. Wiener has enjoyed great success. I believe he is due credit. Many at this forum would disagree. What disappoints me is that many bogleheads are not even willing to consider that active management, or many alternatives, can be appropriate for others. That is a very narrow view and tends to unnecessarily alienate non-conforming viewers/members of this forum.

Think independently.

hushpuppy
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Long Time Subscriber to Dan Wiener newsletter

Post by celia » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:03 pm

We’ve had money at Vanguard almost 40 years, starting with an employer’s 401K. Back then, I didn’t know much about investing but knew we had to save for the future, so kept adding more money. About 20 years ago, I ran across an ad like this and figured I’d give it a try. If I didn’t think it was worth the cost, I could cancel and get the unused part of the subscription back. But, when I received the welcome package, I read everything thoroughly and it made sense to me. I, for one, became a follower and now own most of the funds in his growth portfolios, but in a different proportion than he does. I think he also personally owns the same funds in the same proportions as his model portfolios show (depending on how much risk you want/need to take).

It wasn’t until several years later that Bogleheads started, so our portfolios look more like Dan Wiener’s than the typical Bogleheads. We’ve done very well with him, especially by buying Health Care a long time ago and Primecap Core and Dividend Growth. I also like many of the articles as it gives a different perspective than here. He puts what’s happening in the financial news into perspective (tax law changes, price of oil, federal reserve, tariffs) and used to interview fund managers more than he does now.

I’ve let my subscription lapse several times, such as now, since I don’t always have time to read it. But it seems Dan is easing into retirement as he has a younger person doing some of the writing and, most likely, some behind-the-scenes work.

I wish them well.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by celia » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:14 pm

hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:48 pm
One quote from link: "The newsletter has grown from eight pages to 16, and subscribers now total 40,000."

Think what ~40,000 times an annual newsletter subscription price brings to the current owner(s).
Don’t forget the printing and mailing costs have gone up besides having to double the number of pages. (The page count probably increased mainly because of the increase in the number of mutual funds and ETFs.)

And it takes time to collect the data and report on it. They probably have many full-time employees too.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:47 pm

celia wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:14 pm
hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:48 pm
One quote from link: "The newsletter has grown from eight pages to 16, and subscribers now total 40,000."

Think what ~40,000 times an annual newsletter subscription price brings to the current owner(s).
Don’t forget the printing and mailing costs have gone up besides having to double the number of pages. (The page count probably increased mainly because of the increase in the number of mutual funds and ETFs.)

And it takes time to collect the data and report on it. They probably have many full-time employees too.
Right. Dan Wiener sold the newsletter in 1995, per the linked story, to avoid conflict of interest with his new RIA. The RIA (Regulated Investment Advisory - Dan created) boasts 3,000 clients and 85 members of staff, including 25 client-facing advisors across offices in Newton, Massachusetts and Brooklyn, New York, with $5.5 billion in assets under management. That would seem to be a pretty good outcome for Mr. Wiener. :shock:

Think independently.

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Elysium
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Elysium » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:27 pm

hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:28 pm
I added the bold emphasis to: Lastly, the newsletters approach do not fit in with the Boglehead philosophy of investing. Most Bogleheads believe investment Newsletters are a waste of money and not worth the paper it is printed on. Whether this is good for you or not is something only you can decide.

I would say that many people (bogleheads or not) would prefer to have higher investment returns. Whether these Dan Wiener published, verifiable returns for a couple of decades or more will persist is certainly open to many questions. My thoughts are that the "Boglehead philosophy of investing" is not nearly as pure as most here would like to think. The "Boglehead philosophy of investing" conflicts with some of John Bogle's own statements and holdings, while he lived. For anyone to refuse to acknowledge this "impurity" is to refuse to acknowledge imperfection as a basic truth.

I think that Dan Wiener deserves to be heard. Whether someone then acts on his advice, or purchases his newsletter is a matter of choice. Surprisingly enough, I believe the same for posters at bogleheads.org, but censorship of ideas that do not adhere to the "Boglehead philosophy of investing" is alive and well, despite any protestations to the contrary.

Think independently.

hushpuppy
All I said is that the Boglehead Investment Philosophy, linked here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy, may not approve of following Newsletters. I did not say whether Bogle himself may have disagreed with investing in active managed funds such as Wellington so long as you stayed the course. There is a difference as you have noted. and that is fine. The Boglehead method is a derivative of the ideas from the man himself who was probably among the most brilliant minds in finance ever, so he may be able to hold many thoughts at once, some that are conflicting with each other, because a brilliant mind like that is able to do that. Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:10 pm

Elysium wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:27 pm

All I said is that the Boglehead Investment Philosophy, linked here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy, may not approve of following Newsletters. I did not say whether Bogle himself may have disagreed with investing in active managed funds such as Wellington so long as you stayed the course. There is a difference as you have noted. and that is fine. The Boglehead method is a derivative of the ideas from the man himself who was probably among the most brilliant minds in finance ever, so he may be able to hold many thoughts at once, some that are conflicting with each other, because a brilliant mind like that is able to do that. Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
I do not know what an ordinary investor is, but I think probably they do not have to follow any strict philosophy, or rules. I also don't believe that everyone agrees with what boglehead investment philosophy should be. I am aware of the wiki. I am not splitting hairs, or insisting that anyone else must believe anything in particular. Insisting on adherence to a specific boglehead philosophy would indicate that this forum is a club that does not accept all comers, despite any protestations to the contrary. That is an obvious form of censorship that is certainly within the rights of the forum ownership, but does not square with the free exchange of ideas claimed by many here. As a rhetorical question, why should the bogleheads philosophy be more stringent than Mr. Bogle's? Are we boglehead.org readers unable to think and differentiate for ourselves?

This thread asked about Dan Wiener. Celia, as an example, gave insight of her take on Dan Wiener and his recomendations. Everything does not need to be about the three fund portfolio, when Dan Wiener uses mostly (but not exclusively) active funds with an emphasis on certain active managers/teams. That is anathema to many, but not all, bogleheads. Why should that be an issue? Freedom of discussion here, or not?

Think independently.

hushpuppy
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by nisiprius » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:31 pm

lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:29 pm
I'm not trying to say anything but that graph was supposed to be this with green arrows.
What I posted was a screenshot directly from the web page you linked to, here.

Where did you find the graph with the green arrows?
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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:12 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:31 pm
lepa71 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:29 pm
I'm not trying to say anything but that graph was supposed to be this with green arrows.
What I posted was a screenshot directly from the web page you linked to, here.

Where did you find the graph with the green arrows?
I got it from investorplace.com and clicking on dan's picture. https://orders.investorplace.com/chain? ... 1568765414

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prudent
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by prudent » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:26 pm

^ that is a different link than the one in the OP. The one immediately above does have the green arrows (plus the BOOM!s above the arrows :) ). The content is slightly different - the one in the OP has an additional year of data in the graphs. The sales pitch is almost word-for-word identical, only tiny differences in the numbers (and the subscription offer is different).

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lepa71
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:38 pm

I end up on main investorplace.com website and saw it there. This is where I saw a different image.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Teague » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:45 pm

The thing that chafes 50-grit abrades me about this guy is the general theme of his argument, which as I see it is:

1. If you're a regular person, not mega rich, just an average Joe, then you're getting screwed, and deep dark secrets are being kept from you.
2. I know who is doing the screwing, and keeping the secrets, and how they're doing it. You should be angry about this. You're being cheated. Here, I'll even name the villain. Now you have something concrete to direct your anger at. Let's all be angry at them together.
3. If you knew the deep dark secrets they are keeping, you would no longer be getting cheated. You should feel foolish if you keep letting yourself be cheated. So take action.
4. I am the one who knows who is doing the screwing and how they are doing it. I have your best interests at heart. Trust me.
5. I am the one who can save you from the above indignities. I somehow know special things. Trust me. And by the way, send me some money.
Semper Augustus

Elysium
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Elysium » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:08 pm

hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:27 pm

All I said is that the Boglehead Investment Philosophy, linked here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy, may not approve of following Newsletters. I did not say whether Bogle himself may have disagreed with investing in active managed funds such as Wellington so long as you stayed the course. There is a difference as you have noted. and that is fine. The Boglehead method is a derivative of the ideas from the man himself who was probably among the most brilliant minds in finance ever, so he may be able to hold many thoughts at once, some that are conflicting with each other, because a brilliant mind like that is able to do that. Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
I do not know what an ordinary investor is, but I think probably they do not have to follow any strict philosophy, or rules. I also don't believe that everyone agrees with what boglehead investment philosophy should be. I am aware of the wiki. I am not splitting hairs, or insisting that anyone else must believe anything in particular. Insisting on adherence to a specific boglehead philosophy would indicate that this forum is a club that does not accept all comers, despite any protestations to the contrary. That is an obvious form of censorship that is certainly within the rights of the forum ownership, but does not square with the free exchange of ideas claimed by many here. As a rhetorical question, why should the bogleheads philosophy be more stringent than Mr. Bogle's? Are we boglehead.org readers unable to think and differentiate for ourselves?

This thread asked about Dan Wiener. Celia, as an example, gave insight of her take on Dan Wiener and his recomendations. Everything does not need to be about the three fund portfolio, when Dan Wiener uses mostly (but not exclusively) active funds with an emphasis on certain active managers/teams. That is anathema to many, but not all, bogleheads. Why should that be an issue? Freedom of discussion here, or not?

Think independently.

hushpuppy
Where is all that coming from? no one talked about a three fund portfolio in this thread, no one is doing any censorship, someone asked a question about a newsletter and people answered, giving their opinions. It sounds like you don't like the opinion and objecting against it. Because at the end of the day what I said was an opinion as I am not speaking for anyone else. I don't have anything more to say on this thread. Good luck to you.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:13 pm

Teague wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:45 pm
The thing that chafes 50-grit abrades me about this guy is the general theme of his argument, which as I see it is:

1. If you're a regular person, not mega rich, just an average Joe, then you're getting screwed, and deep dark secrets are being kept from you.
2. I know who is doing the screwing, and keeping the secrets, and how they're doing it. You should be angry about this. You're being cheated. Here, I'll even name the villain. Now you have something concrete to direct your anger at. Let's all be angry at them together.
3. If you knew the deep dark secrets they are keeping, you would no longer be getting cheated. You should feel foolish if you keep letting yourself be cheated. So take action.
4. I am the one who knows who is doing the screwing and how they are doing it. I have your best interests at heart. Trust me.
5. I am the one who can save you from the above indignities. I somehow know special things. Trust me. And by the way, send me some money.
So...you are a satisfied subscriber, since 1991? :happy

Seriously, I wish I had purchased POAGX, Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth, when Dan first recommended it. Regardless of how his advertisements come accross (Poorly in my opinion), many of his recomendations have far exceeded the index 500, or total stock market and he has publically picked multiple very sucessful managers early, which many here say is just not possible.

hushpuppy
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by hushpuppy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:36 pm

Elysium wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:08 pm
hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:10 pm
Elysium wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:27 pm

All I said is that the Boglehead Investment Philosophy, linked here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy, may not approve of following Newsletters. I did not say whether Bogle himself may have disagreed with investing in active managed funds such as Wellington so long as you stayed the course. There is a difference as you have noted. and that is fine. The Boglehead method is a derivative of the ideas from the man himself who was probably among the most brilliant minds in finance ever, so he may be able to hold many thoughts at once, some that are conflicting with each other, because a brilliant mind like that is able to do that. Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
Ordinary investors cannot, so the Boglehead philosophy provides a framework that is easy to follow. I did not say no one should do anything different.
I do not know what an ordinary investor is, but I think probably they do not have to follow any strict philosophy, or rules. I also don't believe that everyone agrees with what boglehead investment philosophy should be. I am aware of the wiki. I am not splitting hairs, or insisting that anyone else must believe anything in particular. Insisting on adherence to a specific boglehead philosophy would indicate that this forum is a club that does not accept all comers, despite any protestations to the contrary. That is an obvious form of censorship that is certainly within the rights of the forum ownership, but does not square with the free exchange of ideas claimed by many here. As a rhetorical question, why should the bogleheads philosophy be more stringent than Mr. Bogle's? Are we boglehead.org readers unable to think and differentiate for ourselves?

This thread asked about Dan Wiener. Celia, as an example, gave insight of her take on Dan Wiener and his recomendations. Everything does not need to be about the three fund portfolio, when Dan Wiener uses mostly (but not exclusively) active funds with an emphasis on certain active managers/teams. That is anathema to many, but not all, bogleheads. Why should that be an issue? Freedom of discussion here, or not?

Think independently.

hushpuppy
Where is all that coming from? no one talked about a three fund portfolio in this thread, no one is doing any censorship, someone asked a question about a newsletter and people answered, giving their opinions. It sounds like you don't like the opinion and objecting against it. Because at the end of the day what I said was an opinion as I am not speaking for anyone else. I don't have anything more to say on this thread. Good luck to you.
no one talked about a three fund portfolio in this thread

Did you not read/view your own link? I think many tend to respond with opinions without any real knowledge of the subject (Dan Wiener and his investment newsletter in this case). If I mis-identified you, because you are indeed familiar with Dan Wiener and his investment newsletter, I apologize.

hushpuppy
Two dogs are better than one. One dog needs to have at least one companion that can consistently measure up to standards. Humans need not apply.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by TropikThunder » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 pm

I just can't take seriously anyone who says he can "Make Vanguard Pay You TRIPLE YOUR MONEY!" Gratuitous capitalization aside, either he (1) thinks investing gains come from the mutual fund company as opposed to the underlying stocks (in which case the only interaction one should have with Mr. Weiner is to take away anything he can use to write, type, or harm himself); or (2) thinks his readers are dumb enough to believe that; or (3) for the life of me I can't come up with a 3.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by lepa71 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:54 am

TropikThunder wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 pm
I just can't take seriously anyone who says he can "Make Vanguard Pay You TRIPLE YOUR MONEY!" Gratuitous capitalization aside, either he (1) thinks investing gains come from the mutual fund company as opposed to the underlying stocks (in which case the only interaction one should have with Mr. Weiner is to take away anything he can use to write, type, or harm himself); or (2) thinks his readers are dumb enough to believe that; or (3) for the life of me I can't come up with a 3.
This is the only way I can explain his line of thought. He compares industry-specific, growth-oriented actively managed fund that MAY outperform SP500. For example the Health care industry or Information technology EFTs. That is all that I can come up with. This wold semi-true and I have done it with VGT in the last couple of years. In a brokerage account, those may trigger capital gain tax and I'm not sure if he takes that into consideration.

It is all about steady and stay the cource or volatility, market timing etc...

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by 1789 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:10 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:38 pm
What do you think about Dan Wiener
lepa71:

Many years ago Mr. Wiener paid me to write a "blind" article about Vanguard's "Transfer on Death" plan for taxable accounts. I wrote the article and accepted his money. :oops:

It is the only money I ever received from anyone on this forum other than royalties from one of my books.

I am grateful to Dan for being paid and I feel an obligation to avoid giving personal opinions about him.

I'll share one incident from my early days: I was in the second row of one of Mr. Wiener's "Money Show" classrooms. Shortly after Dan started speaking, a man in the seat in front of me collapsed unconscious on the floor. An ambulance came and took the unconscious man away.

I never learned whether the man died or not, but trying to be funny, I later said to Mr. Weiner: "Dan, the man died of boredom." He didn't think it funny.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Couldn't stop laughing. Thank you Taylor :)
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Teague » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:19 am

hushpuppy wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:13 pm
Teague wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:45 pm
The thing that chafes 50-grit abrades me about this guy is the general theme of his argument, which as I see it is:

1. If you're a regular person, not mega rich, just an average Joe, then you're getting screwed, and deep dark secrets are being kept from you.
2. I know who is doing the screwing, and keeping the secrets, and how they're doing it. You should be angry about this. You're being cheated. Here, I'll even name the villain. Now you have something concrete to direct your anger at. Let's all be angry at them together.
3. If you knew the deep dark secrets they are keeping, you would no longer be getting cheated. You should feel foolish if you keep letting yourself be cheated. So take action.
4. I am the one who knows who is doing the screwing and how they are doing it. I have your best interests at heart. Trust me.
5. I am the one who can save you from the above indignities. I somehow know special things. Trust me. And by the way, send me some money.
So...you are a satisfied subscriber, since 1991? :happy

Seriously, I wish I had purchased POAGX, Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth, when Dan first recommended it. Regardless of how his advertisements come accross (Poorly in my opinion), many of his recomendations have far exceeded the index 500, or total stock market and he has publically picked multiple very sucessful managers early, which many here say is just not possible.

hushpuppy
hushpuppy,

These posts are sounding like an advertisement to me. I just looked at your posting history. It seems that every post of yours since you joined, all the way back to 2015, you have changed to delete the contents. Your prior posts only say "delete" now. Virtually all of them. Why is that? Why don't you wan't people to be able to see your previous posts? I'm not suggesting anything nefarious, but I am curious. Thanks.
Semper Augustus

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by Dave55 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:25 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:38 pm
What do you think about Dan Wiener
lepa71:

Many years ago Mr. Wiener paid me to write a "blind" article about Vanguard's "Transfer on Death" plan for taxable accounts. I wrote the article and accepted his money. :oops:

It is the only money I ever received from anyone on this forum other than royalties from one of my books.

I am grateful to Dan for being paid and I feel an obligation to avoid giving personal opinions about him.

I'll share one incident from my early days: I was in the second row of one of Mr. Wiener's "Money Show" classrooms. Shortly after Dan started speaking, a man in the seat in front of me collapsed unconscious on the floor. An ambulance came and took the unconscious man away.

I never learned whether the man died or not, but trying to be funny, I later said to Mr. Weiner: "Dan, the man died of boredom." He didn't think it funny.

Best wishes.
Taylor
PRICELESS TAYLOR - Thanks! :D

Dave

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by sperry8 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:36 am

I have been a subscriber to Dan Weiner's newsletter from time to time for years. First, if you decide to do it - do not spend any more than $99 for an annual sub. He has sales from time to time and you can get it for $99. So do not pay more.

As to the positives, Weiner suggested Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX) when it opened. I bought it then. It has crushed the market. He also has advocating strongly for all PRIMECAP funds since inception.

He is not a spammer/scammer. He believes in his advice, does lots of research (saving me the time from having to do it) and I'd say for $50 per year (since I subscribe each year then skip a year) I think it's worth it. Although I do agree - his marketing to join seems spammy (but that's just a/b split testing and what has proved to work and get the most new subs).

Now the positives said, here are the negatives. He has made errors on some funds he recommends. He recommended some funds too late and some way too early. He stands behind a Vanguards sector fund whose performance has dropped significantly over the last decade. Yet he still believes. Who knows, maybe in the long run he'll be right.

Interestingly he pushes VG active funds but you'll notice more recently that his index version outperforms his active version. Still, that can be of benefit to you too - since I don't prefer active/index or whatever. I just prefer outperformance (or to be more succinct, market performance with less volatility/risk).

I'd say that Weiner hasn't helped my overall performance but he hasn't hurt it either. I'd likely get the same returns in a simple boglehead portfolio. On the other hand following Weiner I wouldn't lose to that portfolio either. No small task since most managers lose to indexes. I know most bogleheads would say then why bother since he just ties a simple portfolio. But the thing is I'm not comfortable with a 3 fund portfolio. I tilt small. I tilt value. I tilt PRIMECAP. And while I have simply matched the simple portfolio I'm (weirdly) not willing to stop the tilting. Since I'm prone to do this - why not have someone who advocates VG in my corner so I can double check the data?

So since he simply "ties" the market what so I get for my $50? Information and a calming voice during down markets. He does a lot of research and a lot of rolling return data that helped me gain confidence in my AA, make appropriate tax decisions, and surely got me into POAGX early which is worth all the fees I've paid him since inception.

So in my opinion for $99 give it a shot for 1 year and see what you think. It's not a huge loss if you don't find it worthwhile and if you do you can continue. Just be sure to call and turn off their annoying auto-renew after joining. Oh and sadly even in this electronic world you're going to get paper mail from him and there is no way to stop it. Another annoyance but one that is easily tossed.

I answered a similar query re Weiner about 6 years ago. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=126191
There are likely more threads since then as well. I'm sure the search bar would be your friend.
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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by protagonist » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:49 am

coffeeblack wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:52 am
You should ask him is he has a fund set up so if he does not make you 3x as much he can make up the difference. :twisted:
I love this suggestion.
If you buy something on Amazon and it doesn't live up to its advertised hype you return it for your money back. Otherwise you can sue for false advertising.
I have yet to see any finance "wizard" offering a guarantee if their "product" doesn't live up to its hype.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by TropikThunder » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:46 am

lepa71 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:54 am
TropikThunder wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 pm
I just can't take seriously anyone who says he can "Make Vanguard Pay You TRIPLE YOUR MONEY!" Gratuitous capitalization aside, either he (1) thinks investing gains come from the mutual fund company as opposed to the underlying stocks (in which case the only interaction one should have with Mr. Weiner is to take away anything he can use to write, type, or harm himself); or (2) thinks his readers are dumb enough to believe that; or (3) for the life of me I can't come up with a 3.
This is the only way I can explain his line of thought. He compares industry-specific, growth-oriented actively managed fund that MAY outperform SP500. For example the Health care industry or Information technology EFTs. That is all that I can come up with. This wold semi-true and I have done it with VGT in the last couple of years. In a brokerage account, those may trigger capital gain tax and I'm not sure if he takes that into consideration.

It is all about steady and stay the cource or volatility, market timing etc...
I think you’re missing my point. VANGUARD does not pay you when your fund increases in value.

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Re: What do you think about Dan Wiener

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:54 am

If I correctly read madsinger's performance postings (link posted above) of the newsletter, I would not bother.

From 1999 to present, performance looks very impressive. The newsletter has a roughly a 3% CAGR edge over VFINX.

However for the last 10 years it has lagged VFINX by half of a percent and performance is considerably worse for the YTD, 3-yr and 5-yr periods (July's report used). (Sure in some cases a 10 year period may not be significant, but I don't have enough data to go on.)

I've seen many a mutual fund or newsletter run hot for extended periods but then peter out or worse.

One more thing to consider is, how old is Wiener? Will his replacement(s) be as skilled? If you have a long investment horizon and these investments are in taxable, it could be quite costly to change.
Trade the news and you will lose.

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