Your 1st point is reasonable but a UPRO-only buy & hold strategy is intriguing, especially for someone who just stated a return in line with the market but with higher volatility was a "stupid idea".RayKeynes wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:34 amIn this very unlikely case - the strategy might perform "ok". UPRO does go up with 55% * X the SP500. TMF will go more or less sideways or loosing some money, but not too much. Therefore - The strategy will probably be more or less in line with the market - however - with more higher portfolio volatility - thus a stupid idea to do so.
In any current scenario for the future I do not see any reason to go for UPRO/TMF. I'd rather perform a UPRO-ONLY strategy with continued monthly investing. Thus, if UPRO crashes (and it will!), you will buy every month at a cheaper price.
If you started with $1000 and contributed an inflation-adjusted $100/month from 1955 to 2018 here are the results for UPRO vs. S&P500:
UPRO - MWRR 10.15%, ending balance $9.76M (CAGR includes contributions so is flawed), 43.8% std-dev, -97.6% drawdown
S&P500 - MWRR 10.20%, ending balance $9.97M, 14.5% std-dev, -51% drawdown
Along that wild ride you spent most of your time underperforming the S&P500, with a triumphant peak in the tech boom.