Best day of the month to invest?

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adrihead
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Best day of the month to invest?

Post by adrihead » Fri May 31, 2019 5:58 pm

Hello people,

This might sound silly, but there's the common belief that stock prices tend to increase during the beginning of the month due to increased cash flow and then go down to re-adjust themselves at the middle of the month. Therefore, people argue that the best part of the month to sell stocks would be during the beginning of the month and the best part to buy around the middle of the month.

How does the Boglehead community feel about this? Have you scheduled your regular investments in ETF and/or index funds during the middle of the month?

Cheers,
adrihead

PS. I know that the notion of an absolute best day of the month is bollocks, but still I wanted to debate whether it is more probable that consistent investments during the middle of the month might over time yield better returns than consistent investments during the beginning of the month.

mhalley
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by mhalley » Fri May 31, 2019 6:00 pm

Makes no difference.

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LiveSimple
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by LiveSimple » Fri May 31, 2019 6:06 pm

The best day of the month to invest when you have the $$$

Other best day is 7, and the other best days are 2, 4,,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,20,22,24,17,19,30

Dottie57
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Dottie57 » Fri May 31, 2019 6:11 pm

Today (Monday if on weekend)

frugalecon
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by frugalecon » Fri May 31, 2019 6:15 pm

Any day that the “U.S. stocks in free fall” gets bumped.

The Wizard
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by The Wizard » Fri May 31, 2019 6:38 pm

I like to invest after a drop of 1% or more, around 3:45 pm on that day...
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MNGopher
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by MNGopher » Fri May 31, 2019 6:42 pm

Probably just superstition, but I don't like to invest extra money on a down Friday (like today).

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri May 31, 2019 10:16 pm

adrihead wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 5:58 pm
Hello people,

This might sound silly, but there's the common belief that stock prices tend to increase during the beginning of the month due to increased cash flow and then go down to re-adjust themselves at the middle of the month. Therefore, people argue that the best part of the month to sell stocks would be during the beginning of the month and the best part to buy around the middle of the month.
can you provide evidence to confirm this "belief"? If not, there are many beliefs that are incorrect (flat earth society anyone?) so I'm not sure why you would follow a belief without evidence. Here's what some evidence shows:
The analysis may be broken down to days, hours and even minutes, and the time of day in which a trade is made can be an important factor to consider.
The middle of the day tends to be the calmest and stable period of most trading days.
In the last hours of the trading day, volatility and volume increase again.
There are some who believe that certain days offer systematically better returns than others, but over the long run, there is very little evidence for such a market-wide effect.

source: https://www.investopedia.com/day-tradin ... de-stocks/
What moves stock prices? Earnings and rumors or news. So if stock prices move isn't that because there was news that came out that was favorable or unfavorable or earnings were reported, etc? If that's the case then there is no pattern you will find because news comes out every day, some of it good, some of it bad and none of it predictable.

What you're trying to do is market time. It's time in the market, not timing the market that matters.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

JTColton
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by JTColton » Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:36 am

The best days for me are the 1st and the 15th.

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bottlecap
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by bottlecap » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:04 am

Today is the best day.

If there were actually a best day, everyone would be aware of it and everyone would invest on that day.

JT

ddurrett896
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by ddurrett896 » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:45 am

Yesterday

The Wizard
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by The Wizard » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:34 am

Expanding on my earlier reply, the best day of the month to invest is not known in advance.

As the month progresses, there will be better days and worse days to put new money in the market.
It's a judgement call for sure and if using mutual funds, 3:45 ET is a good time to make it.

Once you decide on a buy, be content with it.
If the market falls further in days following, try to find additional money for another buy.
It's all we can do...
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DanMahowny
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by DanMahowny » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:38 am

If there was a "best day", we would all do it and cancel the effect.
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The Wizard
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by The Wizard » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:58 am

A similar logic applies to the related question: Is there a best day to Tax Loss Harvest during the year?

Again, we can't plan it in advance, but have to take it as it comes...
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Sandtrap
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Sandtrap » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:42 am

Any day of the month is the best time to invest . . .

. . . as long as you are "buying the Dip".. . .

j :D
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JoMoney
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by JoMoney » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:55 am

https://asunow.asu.edu/20170201-discove ... end-effect

... Smith and Robins found that for the entire study period of 1926 to 2014, there really was a statistically significant "weekend effect" — stock returns were down on Mondays by an average of 12.33 points.

But they also found an important “break” in the data beginning in 1975. For the period from 1926 through 1974, Monday returns averaged down by 18.1 points. But from 1975 to 2014, they averaged down by only 5 points, a tiny amount that isn't statistically significant.

“It’s effectively zero,” Smith said. “After 1975, the 'weekend effect' went away.”

In fact, the anomaly had already disappeared by the time the major studies affirming its existence were done in the early 1980s.

“All these studies that try to explain this weird 'weekend effect' are explaining something that disappeared in 1975,” Smith said. ...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:01 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:38 am
If there was a "best day", we would all do it and cancel the effect.
+1

awesome answer.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

ClaycordJCA
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by ClaycordJCA » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:35 am

Whenever I have the $ to do so. 401k contribution typically hits the first week of the month. Taxable investment on the 15th of each month.

kilkoyne
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by kilkoyne » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:37 am

Why not twice a month?

NotTooDeepLearning
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by NotTooDeepLearning » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:24 am

Your hypothesis is easily confirmed/rejected via backtesting. I'm so certain it doesn't make a difference that I'm not willing to put in the effort to test it though.

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FIREchief
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by FIREchief » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:25 pm

I once heard a saying that "the best time to buy stocks is now and the best time to sell stocks is never."
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

klrjaa
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by klrjaa » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:18 am

NotTooDeepLearning wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:24 am
Your hypothesis is easily confirmed/rejected via backtesting. I'm so certain it doesn't make a difference that I'm not willing to put in the effort to test it though.
Allocate Smartly shows the results of holding s&p only around the turn of the month. This trait exists for other asset classes too.

https://allocatesmartly.com/wp-content/ ... 924.03.png

They also show this is not a function of a few lucky data points but that the outperformance is consistent over time

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adrihead
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by adrihead » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:49 am

klrjaa wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:18 am
NotTooDeepLearning wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:24 am
Your hypothesis is easily confirmed/rejected via backtesting. I'm so certain it doesn't make a difference that I'm not willing to put in the effort to test it though.
Allocate Smartly shows the results of holding s&p only around the turn of the month. This trait exists for other asset classes too.

https://allocatesmartly.com/wp-content/ ... 924.03.png

They also show this is not a function of a few lucky data points but that the outperformance is consistent over time
I have also found this paper that suggests that investing in the last day of the month yielded better gains than investing during any other day of the month because the majority of the gains were made during the first three days of the new month. They only study the period 2001-2011 in the total US equity market though:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... FfcYvuTA4B
We also find that investment made on days before the turn-of-the-month performs better than those made during the turn-of-the-month.
Simple time diversification strategy of spreading investment throughout the month, which doesn’t require a perfect foresight, is also found to generate a better performance.

sc9182
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by sc9182 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:20 am

Can split hairs. What is the amount we are investing - $1 million or $2MM ? Are you dollar cost averaging or planning to do lump sum ? What is the lost opportunity/interest for 15+ days if you sitting on cash to buy in your most preferred day !?

There might be some end of quarter (once every 3 months) special effects to do house cleaning by active funds and investments. More pronounced effects during end of year - which all coincide with respective end of months - would you this be contributing to your mentioned ‘end-of-month’ effect ? Dunno - again we are splitting hairs on this.

The best day is “everyday” that you can possibly invest, and save more and continue to invest, do this for for 10-20-30 years and continue to accumulate and stay invested- yes, this leads to best outcomes! No need for blue moon day (or is it night!?) or blood moon day to wait for!

Invest soon, lot of your savings, young, often, and continue to do so for NNN Number of years - you will thank your younger self down the line for your grit and discipline.

klrjaa
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by klrjaa » Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:35 pm

sc9182 wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:20 am
Can split hairs. What is the amount we are investing - $1 million or $2MM ? Are you dollar cost averaging or planning to do lump sum ? What is the lost opportunity/interest for 15+ days if you sitting on cash to buy in your most preferred day !?

There might be some end of quarter (once every 3 months) special effects to do house cleaning by active funds and investments. More pronounced effects during end of year - which all coincide with respective end of months - would you this be contributing to your mentioned ‘end-of-month’ effect ? Dunno - again we are splitting hairs on this.

The best day is “everyday” that you can possibly invest, and save more and continue to invest, do this for for 10-20-30 years and continue to accumulate and stay invested- yes, this leads to best outcomes! No need for blue moon day (or is it night!?) or blood moon day to wait for!

Invest soon, lot of your savings, young, often, and continue to do so for NNN Number of years - you will thank your younger self down the line for your grit and discipline.
I don't see how the results from Allocate Smarty are seen as splitting hairs. It shows results of holding around end and being out otherwise, and even ignores having the cash earning anything when out. Trading costs are ignored as it's proof of concept but any reasonably sized portfolio the trading costs would be negligible. 32x growth vs 2x growth. Not sure why you are dismissing those result as I don't see anything other than an opinion. Can you point to any data which shows trading S&P day 18 buy, day 3 sell does not produce the results shown by allocate smartly? Would be interested in your take, thanks.

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:10 pm

After doing extensive research, I've found that the best days to invest your funds are weekdays that end in "Y".
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

eldinerocheapo
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by eldinerocheapo » Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:08 pm

Bi weekly in your 401k contribution.

klrjaa
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by klrjaa » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:27 pm

eldinerocheapo wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:08 pm
Bi weekly in your 401k contribution.
I believe in the end of month effect so I put all new money into cash then trade end of month

klrjaa
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by klrjaa » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:29 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:10 pm
After doing extensive research, I've found that the best days to invest your funds are weekdays that end in "Y".
if taa folks posted such thoughtless answers they get crucified.

JustinR
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by JustinR » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:40 pm

Wait, why do people have "increased cash flow" at the beginning of the month?

goldendad
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by goldendad » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:16 pm

When you have the money to do so.

sc9182
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by sc9182 » Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:39 am

klrjaa wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:35 pm

I don't see how the results from Allocate Smarty are seen as splitting hairs. It shows results of holding around end and being out otherwise, and even ignores having the cash earning anything when out. Trading costs are ignored as it's proof of concept but any reasonably sized portfolio the trading costs would be negligible. 32x growth vs 2x growth. Not sure why you are dismissing those result as I don't see anything other than an opinion. Can you point to any data which shows trading S&P day 18 buy, day 3 sell does not produce the results shown by allocate smartly? Would be interested in your take, thanks.
Can you explain/cite (multiple studies peer reviewed and oft-cited) your saying about “38x vs 2x” or do you want to qualify in any manner ? Don’t confuse correlation vs causation.

If you found alpha and repeatable, be blessed, and don’t forget cash drag for nearly 15+ days a month.

There have been multiple threads on lump sum vs DCA’, which not directly related to this, but it kinda explains cash drag and missed opportunity cost of not-invested-in-the-market.

If your formula is good - why not extend it: sell at certain days/period of month and buy at some other correct period! If you want to bump up the returns further, can buy on margin to amp-up/leverage such almost-guaranteed returns!

If you data-mine enough data you sure to find some odd pattern - no need to make a point about causation!

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:20 am

goldendad wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:16 pm
When you have the money to do so.
Agree. That was precisely what my post was meant to convey.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

klrjaa
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by klrjaa » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:58 am

sc9182 wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:39 am
klrjaa wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:35 pm

I don't see how the results from Allocate Smarty are seen as splitting hairs. It shows results of holding around end and being out otherwise, and even ignores having the cash earning anything when out. Trading costs are ignored as it's proof of concept but any reasonably sized portfolio the trading costs would be negligible. 32x growth vs 2x growth. Not sure why you are dismissing those result as I don't see anything other than an opinion. Can you point to any data which shows trading S&P day 18 buy, day 3 sell does not produce the results shown by allocate smartly? Would be interested in your take, thanks.
Can you explain/cite (multiple studies peer reviewed and oft-cited) your saying about “38x vs 2x” or do you want to qualify in any manner ? Don’t confuse correlation vs causation.

If you found alpha and repeatable, be blessed, and don’t forget cash drag for nearly 15+ days a month.

There have been multiple threads on lump sum vs DCA’, which not directly related to this, but it kinda explains cash drag and missed opportunity cost of not-invested-in-the-market.

If your formula is good - why not extend it: sell at certain days/period of month and buy at some other correct period! If you want to bump up the returns further, can buy on margin to amp-up/leverage such almost-guaranteed returns!

If you data-mine enough data you sure to find some odd pattern - no need to make a point about causation!
Hi,
it comes from this post at allocate smartly https://allocatesmartly.com/alternate-t ... ical-tool/
The intent of the blog entry is to show how TAA strategies can be analyzed to determine if end of the month trading is an anomaly or something that can be exploited. In doing so the authors show how asset classes behave around the end of the month via a simple example of the s&p. You buy day 18 and sell day 3, with the results shown as 1 dollar growing to 32 vs 1 dollar growing to 2 for buying day 4 and selling day 17. They have another post where they show this performance is consistent over time, and thus lends credence to a TAA strategy that trades end of month if the results show strong turn of the month performance just like the underlying asset classes do. So in the context of a true boglehead answer, I agree with all the posts that say invest whenever you have the money. My responses though were geared towards a different investing approach where there appears to be solid rationale for trading around the end of the month vs any old day. The TAA folks hopefully read the non TAA threads and vice versa so just putting out an alternate methodology for folks to consider. Hope that makes things a little clearer.

On other is I struggle with the data mining claim. You could argue the same for any asset allocation really, and I think if performance is consistent across long periods of time, maybe there's something there.

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Presintense » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:57 am

adrihead wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 5:58 pm
Hello people,

This might sound silly, but there's the common belief that stock prices tend to increase during the beginning of the month due to increased cash flow and then go down to re-adjust themselves at the middle of the month. Therefore, people argue that the best part of the month to sell stocks would be during the beginning of the month and the best part to buy around the middle of the month.

How does the Boglehead community feel about this? Have you scheduled your regular investments in ETF and/or index funds during the middle of the month?

Cheers,
adrihead

PS. I know that the notion of an absolute best day of the month is bollocks, but still I wanted to debate whether it is more probable that consistent investments during the middle of the month might over time yield better returns than consistent investments during the beginning of the month.
Best day of the month to invest for long term investors: Weekdays that end in the letter "y". This is especially true if that day is today. :happy
Performance = Potential - Distraction

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by pdavi21 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:08 am

This is a good way to prove that backtesting is worth almost nothing. The random movements of markets make it look like certain days, weeks, and months were good or bad on average. However, if you add another 100 years of data, the result will be totally different.

Pick a random day you are comfortable with and will stick with forever.
"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity." -Stephen Hawking

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Toons
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by Toons » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:16 am

How many days do you have on this earth?
Any day,
The quicker the better.
The clock is ticking
If you miss a day,,,,
One less day of having the compounding machine
Work For YOU
:happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by MichCPA » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:25 am

Even if there is a 'best' day, waiting for the best day would probably cause me to miss other very good days. If the market goes up 1% on the 14th, 0.5% on the 15th and 2% on the 16th, the 'best day' would have been 3:59 on the 13th.

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by FelixTheCat » Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:38 pm

Thursday, March 5, 2009. All stocks were selling at a big discount.
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:42 pm

Image
Last edited by willthrill81 on Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by H-Town » Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:44 pm

adrihead wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 5:58 pm
Hello people,

This might sound silly, but there's the common belief that stock prices tend to increase during the beginning of the month due to increased cash flow and then go down to re-adjust themselves at the middle of the month. Therefore, people argue that the best part of the month to sell stocks would be during the beginning of the month and the best part to buy around the middle of the month.

How does the Boglehead community feel about this? Have you scheduled your regular investments in ETF and/or index funds during the middle of the month?

Cheers,
adrihead

PS. I know that the notion of an absolute best day of the month is bollocks, but still I wanted to debate whether it is more probable that consistent investments during the middle of the month might over time yield better returns than consistent investments during the beginning of the month.
The best day is the day you decide to put in reoccurring buy order. It's the best decision you can make. Pay yourself first and put investment on auto pilot.

The next best day is the day you decide not to worry about which day is the best day to invest...

I know... I'll show myself out.

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Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:43 pm

invest everyday of the month!!

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