WWJBDo wrote: ↑
Thu May 23, 2019 10:50 pm
anoop wrote: ↑
Thu May 23, 2019 10:43 pm
There is only one blog you need to read for housing.
There is absolutely no sign of collapse. He's not a pollyanna -- he saw housing bubble. Prices are actually still a good bit below that peak in real terms.
Most bloggers writing bad things about housing are practicing yellow journalism.
Anytime I need a negative headline for housing, I visit CR to get the real story.
I've been following Calculated Risk for years, and Bill McBride is my reality check when I go to ZeroHedge and start getting arrhythmias. Read CR and then make your own decision.
In my area, the hype and prices peaked last summer. CR is good and he AND his blog partner Doris "Tanta" Dungey (who was a mortgage banker) made the call in the last bubble, but that doesn't mean he's infallible. I think most people have missed how much lending standards have been stretched to get more marginal buyers in the market (and the last buyer sets the prices). Not just FHA loans with low down payments: Fannie and Freddie allow 50% DTI, 0-3% down, low credit scores, etc. Housing cycles are years, not weeks or months.
I keep an eye on these sources as well:
Buy vs rent for 20 large cities: https://business.fau.edu/departments/fi ... ent-index/
Detailed monthly reports on housing finance: http://www.aei.org/publication/aei-hous ... 2018-data/
Other buyers who were more concerned about just buying something, than value) have probably been removed from the market due to policy changes, and are no longer pushing prices up on the margin:
Chinese buyers (capital controls in China making it harder to get money out)
Criminals trying to launder money (new regulations that expanded money laundering rules for cash house purchases by shell companies): Regulations started with requiring reporting of >$1MM in NYC and Miami. Last year it was expanded to $300k+ deals and many more cities (Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle.)