Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

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SGM
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by SGM » Thu May 16, 2019 9:32 am

Some friends expect a 50% drop. I have no idea what is going to happen. We do have some extra money coming in and are buying stock and bond funds regularly. Some of the stock purchases came on two down days which is good, but not going to make a big difference.

We are retirees and spend less than what is coming in so there is always a decision about what to buy. When I was accumulating it was 100% stock, now it is 65% which seems prudent when your human capital has dried up.

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu May 16, 2019 11:19 am

I did rebalance. Stick with same AA. So technically I bought after 600+dip. I like even number of AA. I am now 80/20.

travellight
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by travellight » Thu May 16, 2019 1:13 pm

barnaclebob wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 6:23 pm
travellight wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 5:04 pm
Yes I did.
How long had you been waiting to do so?
All year. I had sold for tax loss harvesting in the end of 2018 and didn't rebuy and was waiting for a dip. I had placed limit orders for a tolerable price for me and this opportunity activated them to go through. I still have some open limit orders for if/when they go lower. I don't mind having a little cash on hand for opportunities.
364

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by LiterallyIronic » Thu May 16, 2019 1:54 pm

Maybe. Not sure if I did or not. I buy four times per month (two 401k contributions and two Roth IRAs contributions). Automated and always on the same day. I think one of the Roth IRA contributions is sometime around the 13th, but I don't remember exactly. I should find out for sure what days they go, but it's something like the 8th (Roth), the 13th (Spousal Roth), the 15th (401k), and the 30th (401k).

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:14 am
...
All of these depend on stocks going up to its original amount - given enough time frame, we all assume that.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW

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gilgamesh
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by gilgamesh » Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:14 am
...
All of these depend on stocks going up to its original amount - given enough time frame, we all assume that.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
Lol!, fair enough...please elaborate.

So, do you not invest in stocks?

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midareff
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by midareff » Thu May 16, 2019 3:04 pm

jebmke wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:05 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:54 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:17 am
Not even close....... opportunity looks more like a 25% - 30% drop to me, minimum, not a 2% wiggle..
In that case I don't believe you have seen an opportunity in the past 10 years. FWIW, I believe it was around 5% in total.
My last net purchase was in the early summer of 2009. . So, you are correct.


That is correct, nothing of great value since this bull started. Retired and keep about 16 - 17 years of draw in bonds, 71 now. I see no point in risking money I do expect to thoroughly enjoy to take additional risks to make more money I probably can't or won't use. The mortal enemy of a good plan is the thought of a better one.

In my accumulation phase I accumulated cash for quarterly buys due to the constricts of my deferred compensation plan. If I was still in that stage I would have jumoed but that was then and this is now.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 16, 2019 3:15 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:14 am
...
All of these depend on stocks going up to its original amount - given enough time frame, we all assume that.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
Lol!, fair enough...please elaborate.

So, do you not invest in stocks?
Thank you for the predictable, and passive-aggressive, response. Fortunately, I know the answer.

Forty percent of my portfolio is in equities. I am a satisficer, not a maximizer. Far too many posters pretend satisficers don't exist. With respect to my portfolio I view my role as that of a risk manager, not a return maximizer.

This is what I did, and a couple of years later I answered some questions about it.

For the record, I think an age-based asset allocation strategy will be far more practical for most investors to commit to and carry out.

PJW

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gilgamesh
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by gilgamesh » Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:15 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:14 am
...
All of these depend on stocks going up to its original amount - given enough time frame, we all assume that.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
Lol!, fair enough...please elaborate.

So, do you not invest in stocks?
Thank you for the predictable, and passive-aggressive, response. Fortunately, I know the answer.

Forty percent of my portfolio is in equities. I am a satisficer, not a maximizer. Far too many posters pretend satisficers don't exist. With respect to my portfolio I view my role as that of a risk manager, not a return maximizer.

This is what I did, and a couple of years later I answered some questions about it.

For the record, I think an age-based asset allocation strategy will be far more practical for most investors to commit to and carry out.

PJW
I knew you had an answer, otherwise it’d be really weird for you to say something without having an answer....it wasn’t passive aggressive, just the quickest way to get to the point.

I am here to learn, so was hoping I will...learnt about satisficer- pretty neat psychological concept.

Is it really necessary to read those links, do they really provide an answer? Because I don’t know whether we are talking about the same thing..

You said you have 40% in stocks, do you have those with the expectation to lose money with them? Or do you want to make money off them?

I don’t know why you are talking about aged based AA, what has that got anything to do with this? I think you are mistaking what I said. I’m not saying you should be 100% in stocks.

All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.

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HomerJ
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by HomerJ » Thu May 16, 2019 3:33 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
I assume that too, but I'm also prepared to be wrong.
The J stands for Jay

The Wizard
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by The Wizard » Thu May 16, 2019 3:34 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm

...All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
Definitely.
Anyone who asserts the contrary should be lashed with wet noodles...
Attempted new signature...

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:15 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:14 am
...
All of these depend on stocks going up to its original amount - given enough time frame, we all assume that.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
Lol!, fair enough...please elaborate.

So, do you not invest in stocks?
Thank you for the predictable, and passive-aggressive, response. Fortunately, I know the answer.

Forty percent of my portfolio is in equities. I am a satisficer, not a maximizer. Far too many posters pretend satisficers don't exist. With respect to my portfolio I view my role as that of a risk manager, not a return maximizer.

This is what I did, and a couple of years later I answered some questions about it.

For the record, I think an age-based asset allocation strategy will be far more practical for most investors to commit to and carry out.

PJW
I knew you had an answer, otherwise it’d be really weird for you to say something without having an answer....it wasn’t passive aggressive, just the quickest way to get to the point.

I am here to learn, so was hoping I will...learnt about satisficer- pretty neat psychological concept.

Is it really necessary to read those links, do they really provide an answer?
Neither I nor anybody else can force you to read anything you don't want to.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
Because I don’t know whether we are talking about the same thing.
If you decline to spend a few minutes reading the links you will never know.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
You said you have 40% in stocks, do you have those with the expectation to lose money with them? Or do you want to make money off them?
Thank you for your continuing passive-aggressive approach. You said we all assume stocks will recover previous values. I said I do not assume that. I did not say I assume they won't. You're using a false dichotomy. The burden of proof rests with the person who makes the affirmative claim.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
I don’t know why you are talking about aged based AA, what has that got anything to do with this? I think you are mistaking what I said. I’m not saying you should be 100% in stocks.
If you decline to spend a few minutes reading the links you will never know.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW

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gilgamesh
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by gilgamesh » Thu May 16, 2019 3:47 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:15 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:45 pm

This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
Lol!, fair enough...please elaborate.

So, do you not invest in stocks?
Thank you for the predictable, and passive-aggressive, response. Fortunately, I know the answer.

Forty percent of my portfolio is in equities. I am a satisficer, not a maximizer. Far too many posters pretend satisficers don't exist. With respect to my portfolio I view my role as that of a risk manager, not a return maximizer.

This is what I did, and a couple of years later I answered some questions about it.

For the record, I think an age-based asset allocation strategy will be far more practical for most investors to commit to and carry out.

PJW
I knew you had an answer, otherwise it’d be really weird for you to say something without having an answer....it wasn’t passive aggressive, just the quickest way to get to the point.

I am here to learn, so was hoping I will...learnt about satisficer- pretty neat psychological concept.

Is it really necessary to read those links, do they really provide an answer?
Neither I nor anybody else can force you to read anything you don't want to.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
Because I don’t know whether we are talking about the same thing.
If you decline to spend a few minutes reading the links you will never know.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
You said you have 40% in stocks, do you have those with the expectation to lose money with them? Or do you want to make money off them?
Thank you for your continuing passive-aggressive approach. You said we all assume stocks will recover previous values. I said I do not assume that. I did not say I assume they won't. You're using a false dichotomy. The burden of proof rests with the person who makes the affirmative claim.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
I don’t know why you are talking about aged based AA, what has that got anything to do with this? I think you are mistaking what I said. I’m not saying you should be 100% in stocks.
If you decline to spend a few minutes reading the links you will never know.
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
This poster does not speak for me.

PJW
I see what you mean...good stuff!

272 Sheep
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by 272 Sheep » Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pm

To OP,
Nope. I guess I just missed it.

barnaclebob
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by barnaclebob » Thu May 16, 2019 4:18 pm

travellight wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 1:13 pm
barnaclebob wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 6:23 pm
travellight wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 5:04 pm
Yes I did.
How long had you been waiting to do so?
All year. I had sold for tax loss harvesting in the end of 2018 and didn't rebuy and was waiting for a dip. I had placed limit orders for a tolerable price for me and this opportunity activated them to go through. I still have some open limit orders for if/when they go lower. I don't mind having a little cash on hand for opportunities.
Sounds like you lost big on that re balance money then. The market was still up over 10% after the dip relative to the beginning of 2019.
Last edited by barnaclebob on Thu May 16, 2019 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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gilgamesh
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by gilgamesh » Thu May 16, 2019 4:20 pm

The Wizard wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:34 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm

...All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
Definitely.
Anyone who asserts the contrary should be lashed with wet noodles...
HomerJ wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:33 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:24 pm
All I was saying is, we invest in stocks assuming, given enough time we will have a positive return.
I assume that too, but I'm also prepared to be wrong.
Thanks...Of course we do...during accumulation I’ll fall back on my human capital mostly, and in retirement by basic floor is TIPS and SS

The Wizard
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by The Wizard » Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm

barnaclebob wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:18 pm
travellight wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 1:13 pm
barnaclebob wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 6:23 pm
travellight wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 5:04 pm
Yes I did.
How long had you been waiting to do so?
All year. I had sold for tax loss harvesting in the end of 2018 and didn't rebuy and was waiting for a dip. I had placed limit orders for a tolerable price for me and this opportunity activated them to go through. I still have some open limit orders for if/when they go lower. I don't mind having a little cash on hand for opportunities.
Sounds like you lost out then. Prices were still higher than 30 days after the dip.
The BH approved way to TLH is a sideways TRANSFER into a similar but not identical fund...
Attempted new signature...

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by LiterallyIronic » Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm
This poster does not speak for me.
From reading your links, it's hard to get you to speak for you. It looks like a long-winded way of saying you take more money off the table, as your nest egg increases in size. But I didn't see anything that addressed the item that you said "doesn't speak for you", which is: "given enough time we will have a positive return." Instead of a passive-aggressive approach, here it is: do you think that stocks will have positive, negative, or flat return in the long run?

barnaclebob
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by barnaclebob » Thu May 16, 2019 4:35 pm

The Wizard wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm
barnaclebob wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:18 pm
Sounds like you lost out then. Prices were still higher than 30 days after the dip.
The BH approved way to TLH is a sideways TRANSFER into a similar but not identical fund...
Yeah edited my comment. Even if his TLH plan normally calls for holding cash for 30 days to avoid a wash sale vs putting it in a similar fund it was still a loss compared staying the course. Its really amazing how people twist losses into victories in their heads though.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 16, 2019 4:47 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm
This poster does not speak for me.
From reading your links, it's hard to get you to speak for you.
Thank you.
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm
It looks like a long-winded way of saying you take more money off the table, as your nest egg increases in size. But I didn't see anything that addressed the item that you said "doesn't speak for you", which is: "given enough time we will have a positive return." Instead of a passive-aggressive approach, here it is: do you think that stocks will have positive, negative, or flat return in the long run?
I invest as if the return will be positive, but I don't know the future, and am prepared for a period of time between now and the end of assets being meaningful for me if it isn't.

PJW

dcw213
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by dcw213 » Thu May 16, 2019 6:26 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 6:30 am
RickBoglehead wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 5:00 am
dcw213 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 5:56 pm
Unless you moved a serious chunk of money, the impact of “buying this dip” will be nothing in the grand scheme of investing. For a forum of “ignore the noise” rationale I see a lot of folks focusing on the noise when it gets them an extra $100 but writing off when the opposite happens as “noise”. Did you really dump enough money in that saving 3% off your purchase price will be valuable in the grand scheme of your wealth building?
Agree.

Why does everyone on this forum make an effort to rain on a parade no matter how small? If I am about to buy something for $1.00 and it goes on sale for $0.98 am I not allowed to be pleased that I saved 0.02? If I happen to get lucky and find $500 on the sidewalk am I not allowed to be excited that I got a free $500 even though the impact to my overall pursuit of wealth building will be negligible? In the grand scheme of the universe nothing we do matters.
I can ensure you that my goal was not to rain on anybody’s parade. My response to the question of whether others bought the dip was essentially pointing out that this reflects a trading strategy rather than a long term investing plan. If your investing plan calls for rebalancing after 2 to 3 percent market moves then that is fine (I believe back testing has proven this to be an immaterial impact based on actual experience). Otherwise it is a dangerous game - one day, one deploying the OP strategy will aggressively deploy cash or fixed income assets to stocks after a 3%, 5%, 10% drop and it will continue downward. If this is part of the plan, fine, but it seems the deployment of “dry powder” reflect most implementing an over allocation strategy.

There is a big risk in investing that luck is confused with smarts or a winning strategy. I enjoy this forum since most seem to agree with the concept of ignore the noise and stay invested in an AA for the long term. I don’t have issue with the discussion at all as I enjoy hearing others’ opinions. However, I felt compelled to comment in a thread asking what others did to opine that celebrating timing victories but dismissing adverse affects of timing is inconsistent at best and dangerous at worst.

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Portfolio7
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu May 16, 2019 6:31 pm

Nope. My AA is already as aggressive (80/20) as it's allowed to be under current circumstances.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

RAchip
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by RAchip » Fri May 17, 2019 10:04 am

I did. I am a long term buy and hold investor. I always try to add to my portfolio during larger down periods. I am not trying to buy at a bottom; I just try to do some buying after market drops. If it goes down more I buy some more.

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ChowYunPhat
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by ChowYunPhat » Fri May 17, 2019 11:29 am

I buy the same amount of taxable VG funds everyday of the year so guess you could say we bought the dip. Try to steer away from any type of market timing but the temptation is certainly out there when you see temporary noise in the market, esp when it hits sectors that may be unaffected or negatively correlated to the reason for the dip.
A wise man and his money are friends forever...

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Fri May 17, 2019 11:42 am

I buy the same amount on the 2nd day of each month. If that happens to be during a dip, then I buy the dip. If a dip happens later in the month, as it did this month, then I miss the dip.

barnaclebob
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by barnaclebob » Fri May 17, 2019 11:44 am

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 6:30 am
Why does everyone on this forum make an effort to rain on a parade no matter how small? If I am about to buy something for $1.00 and it goes on sale for $0.98 am I not allowed to be pleased that I saved 0.02? If I happen to get lucky and find $500 on the sidewalk am I not allowed to be excited that I got a free $500 even though the impact to my overall pursuit of wealth building will be negligible? In the grand scheme of the universe nothing we do matters.
There are people who think they are good at roulette. If they play often enough to think they are good, you know they wont be ahead so why encourage it when they have a good day.

travellight
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by travellight » Fri May 17, 2019 11:53 am

barnaclebob wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:35 pm
The Wizard wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm
barnaclebob wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:18 pm
Sounds like you lost out then. Prices were still higher than 30 days after the dip.
The BH approved way to TLH is a sideways TRANSFER into a similar but not identical fund...
Yeah edited my comment. Even if his TLH plan normally calls for holding cash for 30 days to avoid a wash sale vs putting it in a similar fund it was still a loss compared staying the course. Its really amazing how people twist losses into victories in their heads though.
Yes, I was trying to prevent a wash sale. I wasn’t trying to twist it into a victory; I just said I bought on the dip. I am just happy I didn’t take as big a loss as I could have.
364

dcw213
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by dcw213 » Wed May 29, 2019 9:21 am

Are we experiencing another dip? Prices lower than this celebratory post from just 2 weeks ago. It’s a slippery slope to thinking you can get deals or that your trading strategy is smart. Stay the course, periodically rebalance.

esteen
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by esteen » Wed May 29, 2019 1:09 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:37 pm
Jimsad wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 6:04 pm

I put in an amount equal to 4% of my total portfolio
Where was that 4% before the dip? Did you miss the 20% run-up since January by not having that 4% ALREADY in the market?
This!

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed May 29, 2019 1:22 pm

I did. But since I rebalanced equity down due to uncertainty of the global economy. I moved all my daugther's 529 into interest only investment. She is in college and I don't want to take the risk.

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