Uber IPO

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Tatala
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Uber IPO

Post by Tatala » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:05 pm

Would anyone buy Uber at the IPO price of $50 before it goes public? I know this a index fund site, but this opportunity game up. Random walk down Wall Street , says stay away

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RickBoglehead
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by RickBoglehead » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:07 pm

Not a chance.
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Jack FFR1846
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:10 pm

Nope. Uber muscled its way into a lot of markets with nobody but taxi drivers against them. Cities are looking at them more closely. Boston's Logan airport just implemented more fees for dropping off at the airport or picking up at the airport. Not only that, no more dropping/picking at the door to the terminal......that place is now in central parking which is maybe 15 minutes walking, some of which might be outside in the rain.

I see it as Massport responding to Uber's "we're going to do what we want and there's nothing you can do about it" with....."oh yah?".

It's now way more convenient to take a taxi in/out of Logan.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

DonIce
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by DonIce » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:15 pm

Lyft is still well below its IPO price, even though the general stock market has gone up a fair bit since its IPO. Uber and Lyft are quite similar companies. Both are rapidly losing money and achieving profitability is far from certain. If the companies do well in the future, there will be plenty of time to participate in their growth later. For example, you could have bought Amazon several years after its IPO and still enjoyed the majority of the gains.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:18 pm

Tatala wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:05 pm
Would anyone buy Uber at the IPO price of $50 before it goes public? I know this a index fund site, but this opportunity game up. Random walk down Wall Street , says stay away
One time I had an opportunity at an IPO at an insider's level - not with illegal inside information, but my employer was spinning off a subsidiary, and we workers had an opportunity to participate at the IPO price, which is not finally set until shortly before market open. To avoid any suspense, it worked out reasonably well for me in percentage terms, but I didn't risk enough for it to change my life.

We could subscribe in increments of 100 shares, with some upper share limit or other. I decided to take the minimum, and fund it out of money I'd saved up for vacations and that sort of thing. If I lost it I lost it. My plan, which I carried out, was when I sold first to refund the vacation and such things cache, then any profit beyond that would go into the retirement portfolio.

As soon as trading opened I set a limit order to sell for twice what I paid. Then, per plan, later that day I reduced it to 1.5x. Further on, a day after when per plan I reduced my ask to 1.33x, my order was filled.

I added something like $500 to the portfolio. That's good. The only risk I took was I would have to give up some temporary luxuries if it didn't go well.

That's what I did and how it worked out. I don't know what you should do, or how it will work out for you.

PJW

aristotelian
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by aristotelian » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:21 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:10 pm
Nope. Uber muscled its way into a lot of markets with nobody but taxi drivers against them. Cities are looking at them more closely. Boston's Logan airport just implemented more fees for dropping off at the airport or picking up at the airport. Not only that, no more dropping/picking at the door to the terminal......that place is now in central parking which is maybe 15 minutes walking, some of which might be outside in the rain.

I see it as Massport responding to Uber's "we're going to do what we want and there's nothing you can do about it" with....."oh yah?".

It's now way more convenient to take a taxi in/out of Logan.
Last flight I took arrived at DCA at rush hour. There were several hundred people in the taxi line. I tapped my Lyft app and a car was there in a couple minutes. It was chaotic as hell trying to find him but I am pretty sure I would still be waiting in that taxi line if it wasn't for him. Then again, he said he refuses to drive for Uber because they underpay.

lukestuckenhymer
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by lukestuckenhymer » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:27 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:21 pm
Last flight I took arrived at DCA at rush hour. There were several hundred people in the taxi line. I tapped my Lyft app and a car was there in a couple minutes. It was chaotic as hell trying to find him but I am pretty sure I would still be waiting in that taxi line if it wasn't for him. Then again, he said he refuses to drive for Uber because they underpay.
Funny, it's the exact opposite at LAX. Hundreds of people crowded in the Ride Share area. It's an hour wait for an Uber (even though the app says they'll be there in 15 min). Meanwhile, you can get right into a taxi. The only sensible solution is to walk 20 minutes to get off LAX property and then call an Uber... It's also $20-30 cheaper, in my experience. In summary, LAX is hell.
Last edited by lukestuckenhymer on Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DonIce
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by DonIce » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:28 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:21 pm
Last flight I took arrived at DCA at rush hour. There were several hundred people in the taxi line. I tapped my Lyft app and a car was there in a couple minutes. It was chaotic as hell trying to find him but I am pretty sure I would still be waiting in that taxi line if it wasn't for him. Then again, he said he refuses to drive for Uber because they underpay.
All depends on the airport. In Seattle (SEATAC), there is always several hundred people waiting for Ubers during busy times, which generally take 30-45 minutes from when you call them (due to the airport purposefully relegating them to a crappy area). In comparison, there is always a long line of taxis just waiting desperately for anyone to use them, and no one using them. The taxis are actually cheaper now (almost 1/2 the price of Uber/Lyft). Most travelers through SEATAC haven't caught on yet.

Cycle
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Cycle » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:30 pm

Uber doesn't make its own cars. It's prices will be undercut by driverless car companies. The "Uber" brand will be aquired for pennies on the dollar.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

aristotelian
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by aristotelian » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:37 pm

lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:27 pm
aristotelian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:21 pm
Last flight I took arrived at DCA at rush hour. There were several hundred people in the taxi line. I tapped my Lyft app and a car was there in a couple minutes. It was chaotic as hell trying to find him but I am pretty sure I would still be waiting in that taxi line if it wasn't for him. Then again, he said he refuses to drive for Uber because they underpay.
Funny, it's the exact opposite at LAX. Hundreds of people crowded in the Ride Share area. It's an hour wait for an Uber (even though the app says they'll be there in 15 min). Meanwhile, you can get right into a taxi. The only sensible solution is to walk 20 minutes to get off LAX property and then call an Uber... It's also $20-30 cheaper, in my experience. In summary, LAX is hell.
Walking out of the waiting area is a great idea! I'm going to have to use that. Agreed on LAX. Newark might be the only worse airport on the planet.

Starfish
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Starfish » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:42 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:21 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:10 pm
Nope. Uber muscled its way into a lot of markets with nobody but taxi drivers against them. Cities are looking at them more closely. Boston's Logan airport just implemented more fees for dropping off at the airport or picking up at the airport. Not only that, no more dropping/picking at the door to the terminal......that place is now in central parking which is maybe 15 minutes walking, some of which might be outside in the rain.

I see it as Massport responding to Uber's "we're going to do what we want and there's nothing you can do about it" with....."oh yah?".

It's now way more convenient to take a taxi in/out of Logan.
Last flight I took arrived at DCA at rush hour. There were several hundred people in the taxi line. I tapped my Lyft app and a car was there in a couple minutes. It was chaotic as hell trying to find him but I am pretty sure I would still be waiting in that taxi line if it wasn't for him. Then again, he said he refuses to drive for Uber because they underpay.

The situation is completely opposite in SFO or SJC.
The usual wait time for uber/lyft are 20-40 minutes.
I don't know about taxis, I haven't used one in years.

DesertDiva
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by DesertDiva » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:47 pm

Tatala wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:05 pm
...I know this a index fund site, but...
:oops:

michaeljc70
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by michaeljc70 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:39 am

I don't buy individual stocks anymore, but if I did, I wouldn't touch Uber.

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ofcmetz
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by ofcmetz » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:35 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:39 am
I don't buy individual stocks anymore, but if I did, I wouldn't touch Uber.
Same here. It's an unprofitable speculation to say the least. Has anyone been watching what happened to Lyft?
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Freefun
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Freefun » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:37 am

Not a chance for many reasons including those already mentioned. Besides, my play money is tied up between VGT and hedgefundie’s excellent Adventure. That’s about the total money I’m willing to lose.
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drk
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by drk » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:39 am

Tatala wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:05 pm
Would anyone buy Uber at the IPO price of $50 before it goes public? I know this a index fund site, but this opportunity game up. Random walk down Wall Street , says stay away
Have you ever had the opportunity to buy it privately before now? If not, that should tell you something.

Jags4186
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:46 am

Asking if you should buy Uber is like asking if you should buy any other company. Maybe, maybe not. I don’t quite understand the vitriol towards Uber by some of the above posters, and it will certainly branch out into other services besides “drive me from A to B” — after all it already has with food delivery — but no one knows if it will do great or founder, if a competitor will come in and beat them, or if a new technology will displace them.

Personally, I would not invest in any company that’s business model is built on the backs of underpaid independent contractors and a gig economy as I don’t believe those things are long term sustainable. That said, not every investment needs to be held forever and in the short term it could be profitable.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by michaeljc70 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:52 am

Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:46 am
Asking if you should buy Uber is like asking if you should buy any other company. Maybe, maybe not. I don’t quite understand the vitriol towards Uber by some of the above posters, and it will certainly branch out into other services besides “drive me from A to B” — after all it already has with food delivery — but no one knows if it will do great or founder, if a competitor will come in and beat them, or if a new technology will displace them.

Personally, I would not invest in any company that’s business model is built on the backs of underpaid independent contractors and a gig economy as I don’t believe those things are long term sustainable. That said, not every investment needs to be held forever and in the short term it could be profitable.
That is only temporary until driverless cars become the norm. They cannot even make money now underpaying (if that is what you believe) drivers. Losing money and not knowing who will dominate in the driverless car era are two good reasons in my view to avoid the stock.

Some of the vitriol may be based on some of their many scandals.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by YttriumNitrate » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:58 am

My main concern with Uber is their lack of a moat. Following the various Uber scandals it seemed too easy for people to just switch to another service.

mikemikemike
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by mikemikemike » Sat Apr 27, 2019 12:40 pm

I own a few companies' stocks outside of index funds. It's a small amount of my portfolio, but I do close and/or open new positions from time to time. So I've thought a little about this, and:

I prefer Uber to LYFT, but am not planning to buy Uber (and have not bought Lyft). Uber's market share and global reach make them the more compelling buy of the two, imo.

FYI, both companies do have autonomous vehicle groups, that are working on driverless cars. So if one of them gets to level 5 automation, and gets regulated in large markets, before competitors like Waymo (Google subsidiary), then I think they'll make a lot of $. Barring that, they'll either continue to lose money until they go bankrupt, or sell their platform to whomever first has a large fleet of level 5 autonomous cars.

I'm long on Google, in part because I'd bet on their machine learning teams above any others out there, and that's a key driver (no pun intended) of autonomous vehicle development. And even if I'm wrong on that bet, their search + other revenue streams give a big margin of safety.

YMMV, of course: my investing advice is worth exactly what you've paid for it.

Adam11
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Adam11 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:05 pm

YttriumNitrate wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:58 am
My main concern with Uber is their lack of a moat. Following the various Uber scandals it seemed too easy for people to just switch to another service.
I’d call the ~$23B of VC that’s been dumped into uber to build the brand a pretty big moat. It takes massive amounts of capital to create a worldwide network as efficient as theirs, and no one else is going to be able to re-create it. I know Lyft exists, but they just don’t seem that serious about beating Uber head-to-head in my experience. Uber vs. Lyft is not Coke vs. Pepsi...it’s more like Coke vs. RC Cola.

I’ve been driving uberX on the side since their summer 2013 launch in DC and it’s been good to me over ~7,000 trips. My earnings from grinding out Uber trips helped fund a house down-payment in a very HCOL city, a healthy SEP-IRA, multiple international vacations, and a wedding. (I was a founding driver on Lyft too but have only 1,100 lifetime rides on their platform...in a nutshell, Lyft plays too many games with drivers’ earnings while Uber does provide a fair chance to be profitable.). I was able to hustle the gig a little harder when I was younger and single, but now have dwindled down to trips to/from my day job on the commute, plus special events where demand and the payouts are sky-high.

Lots of good points/observations made in the thread (along with a couple misleading or completely wrong ones too), but in regards to OPs question and after seeing every change in uber’s existence over the past 6 years, NO, I would never invest in Uber. It just isn’t a new idea and they’re doing nothing truly earth-shattering...they’re a dispatcher and credit card processing middleman. Uber brands themselves as a technology company, not a transportation company. I disagree and see them more as a public utility. Instead of Amazon/Apple/Google, Uber is more like AT&T or Duke Energy. They take in lots of revenue then turn around and spend it all, but at the same time employing hundreds of thousands. Not the best business for profit, but great for society and the economy as a whole.

I don’t see Uber ever failing but I do maybe see them being acquired for their data someday by a Amazon/Apple/Google/Ford/GM/Tesla for a true driverless taxi system.
Last edited by Adam11 on Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:07 pm

I went for training in Phoenix a few weeks ago. Lots of us from the same office were on the same flight. 4 of us literally walked out of baggage claim to the taxis. I found it funny that there were a dozen Prius taxis waiting and one Chevy somethingorother. The Chevy was the only one that would fit all 4 of us. Some of our co-workers had ordered an Uber and left baggage claim before us. We got to the hotel in Chandler about 15 minutes before the guys who took an Uber. Our taxi ride was $15 cheaper than the Uber charged.

Going home, 10 of us were taking the same flight. One of the guys ordered a car service which worked out excellent. They sent a van for all the luggage and one passenger and a 3 row large SUV for the rest of us. Very well orchestrated. I don't know how much it cost.

To the OP's question, I have no interest in Uber stock, even at $1 a share.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:13 pm

Cycle wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:30 pm
Uber doesn't make its own cars. It's prices will be undercut by driverless car companies. The "Uber" brand will be aquired for pennies on the dollar.
My reading of the economic press, not hot stocks but what's going on more broadly and over time, suggests Uber and its competitors are aggressively planning to move completely to driverless vehicles wherever they can as soon as financially practicable.

Pennies on the dollar might apply to the cars Uber, and Lyft and so on, drivers buy themselves when suddenly there's less demand for them because of all the driverless options.

To let my mind wander a bit, with Uber and others socialism has been achieved. The workers own the means of production. It still may not protect them very well from the central corporations where capitalism rules the day.

PJW

Adam11
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Adam11 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:22 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:13 pm
Cycle wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:30 pm
Uber doesn't make its own cars. It's prices will be undercut by driverless car companies. The "Uber" brand will be aquired for pennies on the dollar.
My reading of the economic press, not hot stocks but what's going on more broadly and over time, suggests Uber and its competitors are aggressively planning to move completely to driverless vehicles wherever they can as soon as financially practicable.

Pennies on the dollar might apply to the cars Uber, and Lyft and so on, drivers buy themselves when suddenly there's less demand for them because of all the driverless options.

To let my mind wander a bit, with Uber and others socialism has been achieved. The workers own the means of production. It still may not protect them very well from the central corporations where capitalism rules the day.

PJW
Uber is a “transportation company” who has shown the propensity to post $1B+ quarterly losses while not owning a single car (you know, the most expensive part of providing transportation). Driverless cars will keep Ford & GM in business, not Uber.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by 2commaBH » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:37 pm

I too wouldn't buy Uber at the IPO, but not for any moralistic reasons (do those posters understand all of the capitalistic companies that VTI owns?) or because I stay away from individual equities (I have a "play account" that is ~ 10% of my NW that I trade in stocks for fun and am doing fine).

I would not do so since more often than not the IPO process tends to disfavor retail investors. Perhaps Uber is different, in which case you can always buy later, albeit at a higher premium. One of school of thought says to wait a full year after IPO before buying shares to allow the company's financials to become more transparent, various lockups to expire, etc. If you had followed this strategy you would still have been very successful investing in GOOG, TSLA, FB, AMZN, etc, and you probably would have skipped SNAP, LYFT, etc. Just my $0.02.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:18 pm

Adam11 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:22 pm
...
Uber is a “transportation company” who has shown the propensity to post $1B+ quarterly losses while not owning a single car (you know, the most expensive part of providing transportation). Driverless cars will keep Ford & GM in business, not Uber.
Unaccustomed as I am to polite online disagreements, Uber sees itself as a technology company. It manages booking, pricing, billing, paying drivers, and no doubt sets the standard for drivers in each vicinity with respect to GPS and mapping apps.

It does not own vehicles. That's true. It relies on a fleet of individually-owned vehicles belonging to others.

I see nothing to stop Uber and its ilk from abandoning drivers and contracting instead with owners and operators of fleets of driverless vehicles, while it continues to fill the functions it does today.

I'm not predicting Uber's future business prospects, nor suggesting to anybody that they buy, or decline to buy, Uber stock.

PJW

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Blueskies123
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Blueskies123 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:14 pm

I will take the other side of most or all of these arguments. Uber is in 70 countries, not such a small feat. Yes, they have been losing money, like Netflix, because they are expanding rapidly. A lot of the money they have spent is on autonomous technology and once that rolls out they will not need drivers but they may have to buy a hundred thousand inexpensive autonomous cars. Traditional auto manufacturers are toast.
Yes, they have competition from Google (Waymo), Apple, and Tesla but there may be room for 2 or 3 players and the first to market may have an advantage if they have good technology.
I can see the future and it is closer than you imagine. I plan to dip my toe in and see what happens with this very speculative IPO.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:23 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:52 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:46 am
Asking if you should buy Uber is like asking if you should buy any other company. Maybe, maybe not. I don’t quite understand the vitriol towards Uber by some of the above posters, and it will certainly branch out into other services besides “drive me from A to B” — after all it already has with food delivery — but no one knows if it will do great or founder, if a competitor will come in and beat them, or if a new technology will displace them.

Personally, I would not invest in any company that’s business model is built on the backs of underpaid independent contractors and a gig economy as I don’t believe those things are long term sustainable. That said, not every investment needs to be held forever and in the short term it could be profitable.
That is only temporary until driverless cars become the norm. They cannot even make money now underpaying (if that is what you believe) drivers. Losing money and not knowing who will dominate in the driverless car era are two good reasons in my view to avoid the stock.

Some of the vitriol may be based on some of their many scandals.
It will be temporary for a long time. I am of the opinion that driverless cars are way more into the future than we are led to believe. Beyond the technological challenges there exists the human factor of willingness to use. Regardless of the statistics, I am not ready to just hop into a driverless car, and I’m sure I am not the only one who would be apprehensive about it.

We may be waiting for an entire generation of people born with driverless cars existing before they become socially acceptable. That puts it probably 25 years out at a minimum for real social acceptance.

michaeljc70
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by michaeljc70 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:37 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:23 pm
michaeljc70 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:52 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:46 am
Asking if you should buy Uber is like asking if you should buy any other company. Maybe, maybe not. I don’t quite understand the vitriol towards Uber by some of the above posters, and it will certainly branch out into other services besides “drive me from A to B” — after all it already has with food delivery — but no one knows if it will do great or founder, if a competitor will come in and beat them, or if a new technology will displace them.

Personally, I would not invest in any company that’s business model is built on the backs of underpaid independent contractors and a gig economy as I don’t believe those things are long term sustainable. That said, not every investment needs to be held forever and in the short term it could be profitable.
That is only temporary until driverless cars become the norm. They cannot even make money now underpaying (if that is what you believe) drivers. Losing money and not knowing who will dominate in the driverless car era are two good reasons in my view to avoid the stock.

Some of the vitriol may be based on some of their many scandals.
It will be temporary for a long time. I am of the opinion that driverless cars are way more into the future than we are led to believe. Beyond the technological challenges there exists the human factor of willingness to use. Regardless of the statistics, I am not ready to just hop into a driverless car, and I’m sure I am not the only one who would be apprehensive about it.

We may be waiting for an entire generation of people born with driverless cars existing before they become socially acceptable. That puts it probably 25 years out at a minimum for real social acceptance.
I doubt it will take 25 years. The cost will be much lower for driverless. Eventually, they will be deemed safer. It is not like there aren't risks having a guy you don't know barely making minimum wage pick you up in his own car while your drunk. I do think it will be 5-10 years before driverless taxi services are even in every major US city.

There are also other threats. Like peer to peer car sharing. Eventually, the cost will become very low as I can have my car "work" and make money for me when I am not using it.

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sperry8
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by sperry8 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:39 am

Blueskies123 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:14 pm
I will take the other side of most or all of these arguments. Uber is in 70 countries, not such a small feat. Yes, they have been losing money, like Netflix, because they are expanding rapidly. A lot of the money they have spent is on autonomous technology and once that rolls out they will not need drivers but they may have to buy a hundred thousand inexpensive autonomous cars. Traditional auto manufacturers are toast.
Yes, they have competition from Google (Waymo), Apple, and Tesla but there may be room for 2 or 3 players and the first to market may have an advantage if they have good technology.
I can see the future and it is closer than you imagine. I plan to dip my toe in and see what happens with this very speculative IPO.
Did you end up buying? I did... down a lot. Trying to decide if I should cut my losses and move on - or just hold it. There is an oppty cost of holding (could take years to come back) and during this time market could go up (which is where my money would go, well what is left of it). Not sure what to do... I should never have speculated in these IPOs to begin with. I bought Uber (down 37%), Lyft (down 20%) and Pinterest (up 8%). Down 15% in total. thoughts? Cut and run or hold til even?
BH contest results: 2018: #150 of 493 | 2017: #516 of 647 | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

columbia
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by columbia » Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:32 am

This is certainly an amusing assessment:

Billionaire Oracle founder Larry Ellison calls Uber 'almost worthless' because it doesn't own cars or control its drivers and has an app that 'my cat could have written'
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... itten.html

I’ve only ever used Uber Eats, but the app is really terribly designed.

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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:50 am

sperry8 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:39 am
Blueskies123 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:14 pm
I will take the other side of most or all of these arguments. Uber is in 70 countries, not such a small feat. Yes, they have been losing money, like Netflix, because they are expanding rapidly. A lot of the money they have spent is on autonomous technology and once that rolls out they will not need drivers but they may have to buy a hundred thousand inexpensive autonomous cars. Traditional auto manufacturers are toast.
Yes, they have competition from Google (Waymo), Apple, and Tesla but there may be room for 2 or 3 players and the first to market may have an advantage if they have good technology.
I can see the future and it is closer than you imagine. I plan to dip my toe in and see what happens with this very speculative IPO.
Did you end up buying? I did... down a lot. Trying to decide if I should cut my losses and move on - or just hold it. There is an oppty cost of holding (could take years to come back) and during this time market could go up (which is where my money would go, well what is left of it). Not sure what to do... I should never have speculated in these IPOs to begin with. I bought Uber (down 37%), Lyft (down 20%) and Pinterest (up 8%). Down 15% in total. thoughts? Cut and run or hold til even?
The average IPO stock does not do well post IPO - long term underperformer.

I would cut and run.

Hopefully you have learned an important lesson.

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RickBoglehead
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by RickBoglehead » Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:00 am

sperry8 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:39 am
Did you end up buying? I did... down a lot. Trying to decide if I should cut my losses and move on - or just hold it. There is an oppty cost of holding (could take years to come back) and during this time market could go up (which is where my money would go, well what is left of it). Not sure what to do... I should never have speculated in these IPOs to begin with. I bought Uber (down 37%), Lyft (down 20%) and Pinterest (up 8%). Down 15% in total. thoughts? Cut and run or hold til even?

Is this your gambling money? A Boglehead for over a decade, buying speculative IPOs? :shock:
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sd323232
Posts: 167
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Re: Uber IPO

Post by sd323232 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:14 am

I'm not an insider, but I can buy uber at huge discount from ipo price now :D

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firebirdparts
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by firebirdparts » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:25 am

columbia wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:32 am
This is certainly an amusing assessment:
I admit I laughed when above it was posted "$23 billion VC already spent is a pretty big moat"

A moat would not have been the first hole in the ground that I would have thought of. I have no idea if that figure is real, hopefully not.

The taxi industry desperately needs to be disrupted in some countries and some cities. Have fun storming the castle!
A fool and your money are soon partners

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sperry8
Posts: 1892
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Location: Miami FL

Re: Uber IPO

Post by sperry8 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:49 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:50 am
sperry8 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:39 am
Blueskies123 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:14 pm
I will take the other side of most or all of these arguments. Uber is in 70 countries, not such a small feat. Yes, they have been losing money, like Netflix, because they are expanding rapidly. A lot of the money they have spent is on autonomous technology and once that rolls out they will not need drivers but they may have to buy a hundred thousand inexpensive autonomous cars. Traditional auto manufacturers are toast.
Yes, they have competition from Google (Waymo), Apple, and Tesla but there may be room for 2 or 3 players and the first to market may have an advantage if they have good technology.
I can see the future and it is closer than you imagine. I plan to dip my toe in and see what happens with this very speculative IPO.
Did you end up buying? I did... down a lot. Trying to decide if I should cut my losses and move on - or just hold it. There is an oppty cost of holding (could take years to come back) and during this time market could go up (which is where my money would go, well what is left of it). Not sure what to do... I should never have speculated in these IPOs to begin with. I bought Uber (down 37%), Lyft (down 20%) and Pinterest (up 8%). Down 15% in total. thoughts? Cut and run or hold til even?
The average IPO stock does not do well post IPO - long term underperformer.

I would cut and run.

Hopefully you have learned an important lesson.
I have learned a lesson and it won't happen again. Down 18% to date. Ugh. Just trying not to learn another. That is holding and watching Uber/Lyft go out of business. I've never owned individual stocks before... not sure if they go back up as fast as they went down.
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Carlos Danger
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by Carlos Danger » Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:57 am

It was tempting to invest in a taxi company that loses a Billion dollars a quarter, but I managed to resist the siren's song of Uber.

Oh wait, I forgot, you hail your ride with your phone, so it's a "tech" company. Just like Dominion Energy, seeing as I can pay my electricity and gas bill on my phone too. Dominion is in the XLK now, right?

Big Jim24
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:12 pm

Re: Uber IPO

Post by Big Jim24 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:32 pm

It’s down to just above 28 today, and who knows what tomorrow after the lockup expiration of a good deal of shares (although CNBC just reported that 32% of the supply is underwater).

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ray.james
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Re: Uber IPO

Post by ray.james » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:22 pm

Uber's entire value is in robotaxi - whenever that happens. Personally, I think Google and Tesla will be there far ahead of time.
They do have market share but I think they cannot squeeze any more profitability on salary of uber drivers/car.
Compare that to beyond meat/ Airbnb(similar to uber but more passive and less risks), zoom or chewy. Most of these can have far larger margins, less price sensitive, decent profits already etc.,

This is just from IPO's in 2019.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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