Inputs for Monte Carlo Simulation

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
1210sda
Posts: 1455
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:31 am

Inputs for Monte Carlo Simulation

Post by 1210sda » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:22 pm

what inputs do you use for running MCS?

Arith. Mean=
Std Dev=
Time Horizon=
Success Prob.=
Inflation=

other=

1210
Last edited by 1210sda on Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Shallowpockets
Posts: 1084
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:26 am

Re: Inputs for Monte Carlo Simulation

Post by Shallowpockets » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:30 pm

Are you creating your own Monte Carlo? What's with that? May as well use one already there by some one like Fidelity. Then you plug in your own financial/assets numbers. You can also change inflation rates to your liking and set for poor, median, or good market performance, as well as other variables.
What makes you think your self made simulation would be inclusive of all that has been done by a major financial company? Do you want to create something that will verify your bias, either way?
As a rule, BHs posting here are suspicious of, or state failures of Monte Carlo simulations. Since no one can predict the future, then all bets are off for such scenarios.
I don't undestand this mentality, but it seems to be a trend.

User avatar
Topic Author
1210sda
Posts: 1455
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:31 am

Re: Inputs for Monte Carlo Simulation

Post by 1210sda » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:37 pm

I have a program called MC Retire. It was developed by Dave Wilkinson, a colleague of Bill Bernstein.

You choose the inputs.

I'm just curious what other Bogleheads (those that have an MCS program) use.

Yes, I'm aware of Fidelity's mcs and others. Thank you.

1210

Post Reply