Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

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kosomoto
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by kosomoto » Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm

Bitcoin is NOT an investment.

It does not produce cash flow or the promise of future cash flow. It produces nothing.

Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Bonds, stocks, real estate all produce cash flow or have the potential to do so.

No matter what happens with bitcoin it will not suddenly start producing cash flow.

Bitcoin can be adopted as the worldwide currency and it still wouldn’t be an investment.

You are simply gambling on the fact that people will be willing to pay more per bitcoin in the future.

MoeMoney
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by MoeMoney » Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:17 pm

kosomoto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm
Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow.
Gold, collector cars, art, Air Jordans.. all can appreciate without producing cashflow and are widely accepted as forms of investment.

kosomoto
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by kosomoto » Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:33 pm

MoeMoney wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:17 pm
kosomoto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm
Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow.
Gold, collector cars, art, Air Jordans.. all can appreciate without producing cashflow and are widely accepted as forms of investment.
Accepted by who? Few people think gold will increase faster than the rate of inflation which makes it a commodity like any other. The rest are things people buy because they’d like to and try to justify it. How many collector car investors have zero interest in collector cars?

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calmaniac
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by calmaniac » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:23 pm

No, no, and no. (Apparently you need at least 5 characters to post to the forum, hence the multiple "no" response. Not sure Bitcoin is worth 5 characters.
Last edited by calmaniac on Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

HawkeyePierce
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HawkeyePierce » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm

zonto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:36 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am
Nobody—and I mean that literally—has found a viable use for blockchain technology. Turns out there's not much reason to want an extremely slow distributed database.

. . . .
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

If you make unqualified statements like this, you best be able to back them up. A cursory Google search would show you are not. See: https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... Channel=RI
Yawn. It's a pilot. If they ever get beyond the press release stage, I'll be interested, especially if the press release says anything at all about what they're actually doing with blockchain (hint: that one doesn't). Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.

Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am

Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio.

Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other transactional currencies may be used for that now and in the future, if they take off. We’ll see. Facebook’s Libra initiative is a good example of a potential transactional crypto-currency.

The amount of ignorance on Bitcoin here is just staggering. I was shocked when I first started reading posts about what people thought of Bitcoin. At the time BTC was trading around 5k USD, and I thought I should buy more, simply because it’s clearly very misunderstood by a significant number of investors, if this forum is any guide (granted this forum is heavily skewed to rich, white, male, older Americans, but still, so are most investors). But I told myself I was not going to purchase any more BTC until I could do so through a Vanguard ETF, and that day is not yet upon us. But I do think that day will come.

We are still in the very, very early stages of crypto-currencies, and there are a lot of ups and downs to come. Nothing is certain, Bitcoin may fail. But I think there is a good chance it will succeed and become something akin to gold. I do think 99.9% of existing crypto-currencies will fail. I don’t believe Bitcoin will be one of those, thanks to its first mover advantage, its overall brand recognition, its highly deflationary algorithm, and its clearly defined niche as a storage of wealth.

Again, if you take away anything from this thread, view Bitcoin as a gold substitute, with significantly more advantages for purchasing, storing, and trading over gold. It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.

In any case, with the likely coming turmoil is world economies, 2019 and 2020 should be Bitcoin’s time to shine. But we shall see.

Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:31 am

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
zonto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:36 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am
Nobody—and I mean that literally—has found a viable use for blockchain technology. Turns out there's not much reason to want an extremely slow distributed database.

. . . .
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

If you make unqualified statements like this, you best be able to back them up. A cursory Google search would show you are not. See: https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... Channel=RI
Yawn. It's a pilot. If they ever get beyond the press release stage, I'll be interested, especially if the press release says anything at all about what they're actually doing with blockchain (hint: that one doesn't). Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.

No doubt the horse and buggy lobby were saying the same about automobiles in the early 20th century.

kosomoto
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by kosomoto » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio.

Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other transactional currencies may be used for that now and in the future, if they take off. We’ll see. Facebook’s Libra initiative is a good example of a potential transactional crypto-currency.

The amount of ignorance on Bitcoin here is just staggering. I was shocked when I first started reading posts about what people thought of Bitcoin. At the time BTC was trading around 5k USD, and I thought I should buy more, simply because it’s clearly very misunderstood by a significant number of investors, if this forum is any guide (granted this forum is heavily skewed to rich, white, male, older Americans, but still, so are most investors). But I told myself I was not going to purchase any more BTC until I could do so through a Vanguard ETF, and that day is not yet upon us. But I do think that day will come.

We are still in the very, very early stages of crypto-currencies, and there are a lot of ups and downs to come. Nothing is certain, Bitcoin may fail. But I think there is a good chance it will succeed and become something akin to gold. I do think 99.9% of existing crypto-currencies will fail. I don’t believe Bitcoin will be one of those, thanks to its first mover advantage, its overall brand recognition, its highly deflationary algorithm, and its clearly defined niche as a storage of wealth.

Again, if you take away anything from this thread, view Bitcoin as a gold substitute, with significantly more advantages for purchasing, storing, and trading over gold. It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.

In any case, with the likely coming turmoil is world economies, 2019 and 2020 should be Bitcoin’s time to shine. But we shall see.
Last I checked most bogleheads don’t own gold in their portfolio, so why would they add a digital version of it?

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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.
How is it incredibly safe? My understanding is that the only way to be safe is to have a hardware wallet. That means, a physical USB stick on your person.

Which one could lose or have stolen or it could be destroyed in a fire or something.

For the same reason I wouldn't feel very comfortable holding $100,000 in cash or $100,000 in gold in my house, I wouldn't feel very good about a USB stick with $100,000 in bitcoin on it in my house or in my pocket.
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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EnjoyIt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:07 pm

This thread reminds me back when bitcoin was at $20k, I was sitting eating lunch in a restaurant where some young kid was trying to convince an older couple, maybe his parents, that bitcoin is the investment of the future. I sort of laughed to myself thinking this scenario is akin to the shoe shine boy giving stock tips. Not too long after the value of bitcoin toppled. It can topple again, but there is plenty of chance bitcoin will hit $30k or higher before it topples again.

The examples of why bitcoin is so amazing have very little rationality as any crypto satisfies those arguments as does other online currencies and/or commodities. I’m frankly amazed by the ignorant comments by so many proponents of cryptos.

Fact is owning bitcoins does not give one a patent to blockchain technology and the two are not synonymous. Bitcoin can be worth millions but far more likely to be worthless in the future. In the meantime speculating can bring significant wealth to those who get lucky or have gotten lucky in the past. If people want to gamble a little with some of their wealth, it is their money and they should do whatever they want with it. I remind myself that the market can be irrational far longer than an investor can stay solvent.

I would not recommend anyone speculate a significant portion of their wealth in this. A few percent to ride the bitcoin rollercoaster can be understandable.

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Nate79
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Nate79 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm

It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.

columbia
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by columbia » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:00 pm

Stephen Moore is trying to make headlines on the issue.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?

Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:26 pm

kosomoto wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio.

Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other transactional currencies may be used for that now and in the future, if they take off. We’ll see. Facebook’s Libra initiative is a good example of a potential transactional crypto-currency.

The amount of ignorance on Bitcoin here is just staggering. I was shocked when I first started reading posts about what people thought of Bitcoin. At the time BTC was trading around 5k USD, and I thought I should buy more, simply because it’s clearly very misunderstood by a significant number of investors, if this forum is any guide (granted this forum is heavily skewed to rich, white, male, older Americans, but still, so are most investors). But I told myself I was not going to purchase any more BTC until I could do so through a Vanguard ETF, and that day is not yet upon us. But I do think that day will come.

We are still in the very, very early stages of crypto-currencies, and there are a lot of ups and downs to come. Nothing is certain, Bitcoin may fail. But I think there is a good chance it will succeed and become something akin to gold. I do think 99.9% of existing crypto-currencies will fail. I don’t believe Bitcoin will be one of those, thanks to its first mover advantage, its overall brand recognition, its highly deflationary algorithm, and its clearly defined niche as a storage of wealth.

Again, if you take away anything from this thread, view Bitcoin as a gold substitute, with significantly more advantages for purchasing, storing, and trading over gold. It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.

In any case, with the likely coming turmoil is world economies, 2019 and 2020 should be Bitcoin’s time to shine. But we shall see.
Last I checked most bogleheads don’t own gold in their portfolio, so why would they add a digital version of it?
I agree it’s probably not for most bogleheads, especially those that don’t hold gold. My thesis is that for some, it could be a good addition to their portfolios, although probably at no more than 10%. I would absolutely add it to my portfolio at 5% - 10% or so if it could be done through an ETF, ideally a Vanguard ETF. Sadly, this is not yet the case, and probably won’t be for some time.

I do not view Bitcoin as some “get rich” scheme. I view it as a serious compliment to, and perhaps even a replacement for, gold. A way for normal people to store wealth easily in at risk countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, without having the burden of physically managing the asset, with low transactional costs. And in more developed and stable countries, a way to compliment a Boglehead type portfolio.

I am very curious to watch the correlation of BTC to VTI in the coming months and years. And to see more serious academic work on BTC as part of an overall portfolio.

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Nate79
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Nate79 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:26 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
LOL. And then there are posts like this that keep this topic going. Gold actually has a use. Can't say the same about bitcoin or any other crypto so far. Lots of hype though. Lots of hype.

Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:31 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.
How is it incredibly safe? My understanding is that the only way to be safe is to have a hardware wallet. That means, a physical USB stick on your person.

Which one could lose or have stolen or it could be destroyed in a fire or something.

For the same reason I wouldn't feel very comfortable holding $100,000 in cash or $100,000 in gold in my house, I wouldn't feel very good about a USB stick with $100,000 in bitcoin on it in my house or in my pocket.
Because you can recover your funds even if your physical wallet is stolen. At least with the wallet I use (Trezor). Also, just to be clear, even if someone stole your physical wallet, they could not access it without your password. So there are multiple layers of security.

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sperry8
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by sperry8 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:32 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio.

Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other transactional currencies may be used for that now and in the future, if they take off. We’ll see. Facebook’s Libra initiative is a good example of a potential transactional crypto-currency.

The amount of ignorance on Bitcoin here is just staggering. I was shocked when I first started reading posts about what people thought of Bitcoin. At the time BTC was trading around 5k USD, and I thought I should buy more, simply because it’s clearly very misunderstood by a significant number of investors, if this forum is any guide (granted this forum is heavily skewed to rich, white, male, older Americans, but still, so are most investors). But I told myself I was not going to purchase any more BTC until I could do so through a Vanguard ETF, and that day is not yet upon us. But I do think that day will come.

We are still in the very, very early stages of crypto-currencies, and there are a lot of ups and downs to come. Nothing is certain, Bitcoin may fail. But I think there is a good chance it will succeed and become something akin to gold. I do think 99.9% of existing crypto-currencies will fail. I don’t believe Bitcoin will be one of those, thanks to its first mover advantage, its overall brand recognition, its highly deflationary algorithm, and its clearly defined niche as a storage of wealth.

Again, if you take away anything from this thread, view Bitcoin as a gold substitute, with significantly more advantages for purchasing, storing, and trading over gold. It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.

In any case, with the likely coming turmoil is world economies, 2019 and 2020 should be Bitcoin’s time to shine. But we shall see.
Italics and bolding my emphasis

Actually bitcoin is not (yet) a store of wealth. We trade service/goods for other service/goods. Used to be the way it was done (was called barter). Nowadays, governments created fiat money so that people could trade their service/good and store their wealth until they were ready to trade for the service/good they desired. The key to peoples willingness to accept/hold this fiat money (which is really just paper made from trees) is trust. Trust that the entity backing the paper made from trees stands behind it and that over the long term the paper you received will be worth (more or less) the same as it was when you first traded your good/service for it. Of course, not all governments are created equal. Would you trade your good/service for Venezuelan bolivars? Or Zimbabwe dollars? You might, if it was an immediate transaction or even same day transaction. But I'll be there is no shot you'd plow your money into those "currencies" over 10 years. Why? Because they aren't a trusted source as a store of value.

Now, the same question can be asked re Bitcoin. Would someone hold their "paper" in Bitcoin over 10 years. Money they absolutely need back in 10 years. Perhaps to buy a home. Or to pay a kids college? Not speculative money mind you, but money they absolutely must get back. Probably not. Because Bitcoin is not a true store of value (yet). Perhaps it will be someday, but today it is too volatile to trust over any short term period let along long term period. As such, it is not a store of wealth as you posit. For that matter, Gold is also a poor storage of wealth over the long term. Again, if you were to buy a house would you plow $500k into Gold expecting to get back that $500k in 10 years? I doubt most would. They use gold more as a fear hedge than a true store of value. Currently, stores of value include major governments that have the "trust" of its people. Now that trust can be eroded or lost. But if we were ranking stores of value, fiat money in your home country would rank #1 on most peoples trust list (Of course that assumes your home country is the USA, Europe, Japan, etc. Surely not Venezuela, Zimbabwe or others as previously mentioned). And surely not Bitcoin.
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:52 pm

I think purchasing BTC can be a way for normal people to sell their local currency in times of crisis, especially when dollars or other “hard” currencies face restrictions. You cannot restrict BTC, provided the purchaser has access to a computer and an internet connection. So that is why it is so useful in many countries, especially for people who are too poor or without the proper connections to bypass currency restrictions, or easily purchase gold.

As to setting aside 500k in BTC to purchase a house in 10 years, of course you wouldn’t. But you wouldn’t do that with gold, either, as you correctly noted.

I’m not completely sold on BTC, to be honest. Perhaps it is a solution in search of a problem. Perhaps. It could also blow up, something in the algorithm that has not yet come to light that proves fatal, or infighting with developers, or who knows? Some black swan just waiting to be discovered (quantum computing to break cryptography?)....

I just get really tired of all the bad info here, e.g. “You can’t easily purchase a cup of coffee with bitcoin, ergo it’s a scam....”

Let’s just sit back and watch what happens. We are still in the very early stages. As I’ve always said, BTC will one day be worth a heck of a lot more than what it’s worth today, or it will go to zero. It’s either the crypto gold equivalent that becomes standard in many portfolios worldwide, or it’s busto.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by patrick » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:00 pm

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is now $336 billion (according to https://coinmarketcap.com/) of which bitcoin accounts for 60%. By comparison, the total market cap of global stocks (including developed and emerging, with float adjustments) is $49.6 trillion (according to http://www.ftse.com/Analytics/FactSheet ... me=GEISLMS), about 147 times as much.

If you want to hold cryptocurrencies at market weight, for every $1000 you have in global stocks you should have:

$4.08 in BTC (bitcoin)
$0.67 in ETH (ethereum)
$0.40 in XRP (ripple)
$0.17 in BCH (bitcoin cash)
$0.17 in LTC (litecoin)

and assorted smaller amounts in the lesser cryptocurrencies. I'll leave it to you to judge whether this is ridiculously high or ridiculous low, or perhaps both.

EnjoyIt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:02 pm

sperry8 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:32 pm

Would someone hold their "paper" in Bitcoin over 10 years. Money they absolutely need back in 10 years. Perhaps to buy a home. Or to pay a kids college? Not speculative money mind you, but money they absolutely must get back. Probably not. Because Bitcoin is not a true store of value (yet). Perhaps it will be someday, but today it is too volatile to trust over any short term period let along long term period.
This is exactly why bitcoin is not a store of wealth. The volatility is insane. Bitcoin today is nothing more than some trendy thing that someone will hopefully one day sell to someone else for more fiat than they originally paid for. Bitcoin is like a collectors items. Similar to baseball cards, art, or beanie babies.

Most bitcoin evangelist have finally come to agree bitcoin is not a currency. The above comment is exactly why it is a poor store of wealth just like all collectors items with no real utility.

Who knows what the future holds for bitcoin. Maybe one day it will have a stable value, maybe one day it will allow transactions quickly at a low cost, maybe no other cryptocurrency will do it better. These are all maybes. In the US, most non criminals are buying due to greed and fear of missing out. It is following the bigger sucker theory and here is no reason why price won't reach $30k and more in the next few months. It may reach $100k but eventually we will run out of suckers and bitcoin will actually have to step up and prove its value. It will need to become stable and allow fast transactions at a very low cost.

parahasaurus, I agree with you, it is probably worth while to just sit back and watch what happens. I for one have been enjoying the show.

kosomoto
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by kosomoto » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:39 pm

patrick wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:00 pm
The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is now $336 billion (according to https://coinmarketcap.com/) of which bitcoin accounts for 60%. By comparison, the total market cap of global stocks (including developed and emerging, with float adjustments) is $49.6 trillion (according to http://www.ftse.com/Analytics/FactSheet ... me=GEISLMS), about 147 times as much.

If you want to hold cryptocurrencies at market weight, for every $1000 you have in global stocks you should have:

$4.08 in BTC (bitcoin)
$0.67 in ETH (ethereum)
$0.40 in XRP (ripple)
$0.17 in BCH (bitcoin cash)
$0.17 in LTC (litecoin)

and assorted smaller amounts in the lesser cryptocurrencies. I'll leave it to you to judge whether this is ridiculously high or ridiculous low, or perhaps both.
Why are you comparing the total value of crypto to stock market caps? You might as well compare the market cap of gold to it, you’ll still not reach any meaningful conclusion as they aren’t comparable.

Boglescientist
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Boglescientist » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:47 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:52 pm

I just get really tired of all the bad info here, e.g. “You can’t easily purchase a cup of coffee with bitcoin, ergo it’s a scam....”
Actually you can
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldel ... 0589d82252

This forum has great advice on long term risk averse safe investment strategy. A high risk investment like "bitcoin" goes against the thesis of Boglehead investing philosophy and most investors stick to this long term view.

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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:57 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:31 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:29 am
It’s also incredibly safe, but you need to know a bit about how to buy and store. There is still more work there to be done to make this process easier for average investors.
How is it incredibly safe? My understanding is that the only way to be safe is to have a hardware wallet. That means, a physical USB stick on your person.

Which one could lose or have stolen or it could be destroyed in a fire or something.

For the same reason I wouldn't feel very comfortable holding $100,000 in cash or $100,000 in gold in my house, I wouldn't feel very good about a USB stick with $100,000 in bitcoin on it in my house or in my pocket.
Because you can recover your funds even if your physical wallet is stolen. At least with the wallet I use (Trezor). Also, just to be clear, even if someone stole your physical wallet, they could not access it without your password. So there are multiple layers of security.
How is it recovered? Does that mean you have your information online somewhere as well? No longer safe.
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robertmcd
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by robertmcd » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.

chessknt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by chessknt » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:01 pm

I still advocate that nobody should support bitcoin since it seems to be the universal currency of preference by thieves. A hacker can't steal control of a municipality and demand a gold bar delivery but they can for bitcoin. There is a reason our banking system exists the way it does. We need a crypto that has a reliable tracing system to identify the recipients of funds. Large money transactions and complete anonymity is a recipe for criminal enterprise.

If polar bear pelts became a store of wealth would we all speculate in that too since they are going extinct and its value could approach millions each of only enough people want one?

gips
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by gips » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:45 pm

in the book sapiens, Harari makes the point that human are the dominant species because of our ability to create and maintain myths. Money is one of those myths. The $20 dollar bills in our wallets aren't worth the paper they're printed on. So now we've created a new myth, cryptocurrency. If enough people believe in this myth bitcoin will become worth whatever our collective wisdom says it's worth (another myth).

If facebook launches it's own cryptocurrency and allows/promotes the use of the coin, more people will believe in the myth. This will adds legitimacy to bitcoin's myth. As more humans believe in the myth, we'll probably start to use terms like "investing" rather than "gambling". Still, retail currency trading is mostly gambling. For example, I don't see a lot of people "investing" in the yen (for example) today.

Personally, as a technologist that understands the crypto platform, I decided to gamble .2% of our portfolio that the world will eventually believe in the bitcoin myth. When my original gamble doubled, I took out my initial stake and decided to let the rest ride.

I hope that makes some sense to the bitcoin naysayers.
Last edited by gips on Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bikechuck
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by bikechuck » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:48 pm

jibantik wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:19 pm
Nope. Any money i'd put in crypto i'd rather put into VTWAX.

Also, didn't they determine the last bull was due to some bad actors performing price manipulation or some exchanges trying to build traffic?
What is VTWAX?

jibantik
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jibantik » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:04 pm

bikechuck wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:48 pm
jibantik wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:19 pm
Nope. Any money i'd put in crypto i'd rather put into VTWAX.

Also, didn't they determine the last bull was due to some bad actors performing price manipulation or some exchanges trying to build traffic?
What is VTWAX?
Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund

Enganerd
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Enganerd » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:20 pm

gips wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:45 pm
in the book sapiens, Harari makes the point that human are the dominant species because of our ability to create and maintain myths. Money is one of those myths. The $20 dollar bills in our wallets aren't worth the paper they're printed on. So now we've created a new myth, cryptocurrency. If enough people believe in this myth bitcoin will become worth whatever our collective wisdom says it's worth (another myth).

If facebook launches it's own cryptocurrency and allows/promotes the use of the coin, more people will believe in the myth. This will adds legitimacy to bitcoin's myth. As more humans believe in the myth, we'll probably start to use terms like "investing" rather than "gambling". Still, retail currency trading is mostly gambling. For example, I don't see a lot of people "investing" in the yen (for example) today.

Personally, as a technologist that understands the crypto platform, I decided to gamble .2% of our portfolio that the world will eventually believe in the bitcoin myth. When my original gamble doubled, I took out my initial stake and decided to let the rest ride.

I hope that makes some sense to the bitcoin naysayers.
I like the Sapiens reference. I used the same reference to try and "cool the jets" of a friend who is a hardcore bitcoin advocate. He firmly believes the that fiat currency that can be 'manipulated by elites' is objectively wrong and therefore eventually a form of sound money (btc) will have to prevail. We both like Harari's book so I reminded him that almost all human cooperation is based on a sort of imaginary 'myth' so why is fiat currency definitely wrong and sound money correct. I also pointed out that global progress has been pretty amazing the last 80 years even though the USD has been the reserve currency. According well sourced works by Stephen Pinker, Hans Rosling, Matt Ridley among others as well I am sure.

But in his evangelism he gave me some bitcoin the last time it was worth around 10k after falling from 19k. Because of his generosity I thought I needed some of my own skin in the game and matched his USD amount given by dollar cost averaging into btc as it dropped to 3.5k. So right now I am up but I don't really plan on pulling any out unless it exceeds 5% of my portfolio and it would have to climb quite a bit before that happens.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by JonnyDVM » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:42 pm

Ok. I’ll admit I’m starting to think I should consider getting in on this. I have maintained, and still maintain crypto is incredibly stupid. But other people, for reasons that continue to elude me, seem to think otherwise. They passionately believe in this stuff. I’ve talked to them. It’s true. They really do. So why should I not capitalize off of this? Surely the beanie baby middle man pocketed a small fortune. As did the guy selling the tulip bulbs. The key is just not to be the one holding the bag. Anyone that bought bitcoin when this thread started has nearly tripled up.
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

EnjoyIt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:42 pm

gips wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:45 pm
in the book sapiens, Harari makes the point that human are the dominant species because of our ability to create and maintain myths. Money is one of those myths. The $20 dollar bills in our wallets aren't worth the paper they're printed on. So now we've created a new myth, cryptocurrency. If enough people believe in this myth bitcoin will become worth whatever our collective wisdom says it's worth (another myth).

If facebook launches it's own cryptocurrency and allows/promotes the use of the coin, more people will believe in the myth. This will adds legitimacy to bitcoin's myth. As more humans believe in the myth, we'll probably start to use terms like "investing" rather than "gambling". Still, retail currency trading is mostly gambling. For example, I don't see a lot of people "investing" in the yen (for example) today.

Personally, as a technologist that understands the crypto platform, I decided to gamble .2% of our portfolio that the world will eventually believe in the bitcoin myth. When my original gamble doubled, I took out my initial stake and decided to let the rest ride.

I hope that makes some sense to the bitcoin naysayers.
I love your description. I wonder, will facebook legitimize bitcoin or will it take market share away to its own coin, making bitcoin worthless? Really anything can happen as long as enough people believe in it.

alwayshedge
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by alwayshedge » Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm

robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..

EnjoyIt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am

alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.

boomer_techie
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by boomer_techie » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:14 am

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:57 pm
How is it recovered? Does that mean you have your information online somewhere as well? No longer safe.
It is recovered via a set of words you've chiseled into a rock that you've buried in the garden. Or written on a piece of paper in your safe. These words are an encoding of a 256 (or 128) bit number that will derive all your keys.

boomer_techie
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by boomer_techie » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:32 am

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.
In its simplest form, a blockchain is simply a set of blocks where each block has a hash of the previous block. There's no requirement to be slow, cumbersome and expensive.

Here's a use for blockchain: A university could use it to publicly publish student grades. (Each student's grades would likely be encrypted with that student's key.) The block for each semester would link back to the previous semester. This way the school could prove that their football team's star senior receiver has been an A student all the way back to when he was a red shirt freshman on crutches.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Prahasaurus » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am
alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.

It’s just another example of the (I’m sorry) ridiculous arguments here against Bitcoin.

Coke is basically just sugar and water! Anyone can make a sugary soft drink! Ergo, Coke is worthless!

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sperry8
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by sperry8 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:12 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am
alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:36 pm
It's amazing how these threads on crypto come back all the sudden. Nothing for months and then bam. I've yet to meet a person who ever actually used bitcoin for any practical use. My guess that's true for 99.99% of people who hold or advocate for bitcoin.
Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.
Limited by its mining rate... until it "splits/forks"... and the split possibilities are endless
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by patrick » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:38 am

boomer_techie wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:32 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.
In its simplest form, a blockchain is simply a set of blocks where each block has a hash of the previous block. There's no requirement to be slow, cumbersome and expensive.

Here's a use for blockchain: A university could use it to publicly publish student grades. (Each student's grades would likely be encrypted with that student's key.) The block for each semester would link back to the previous semester. This way the school could prove that their football team's star senior receiver has been an A student all the way back to when he was a red shirt freshman on crutches.
What is to stop someone from creating fake blocks for the first three years and then linking the senior grade block back through the chain of old fake blocks? In the case of bitcoin itself, retroactive changes are made impractical by the large aggregate hash rate. But if this is on some other blockchain, it won't have nearly as much hash power on it, and thus generating an equally valid fake chain becomes feasible.

EnjoyIt
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:45 am

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am
alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm


Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.

It’s just another example of the (I’m sorry) ridiculous arguments here against Bitcoin.

Coke is basically just sugar and water! Anyone can make a sugary soft drink! Ergo, Coke is worthless!
It's just another example of how far a bitcoin evangelist will go to not have cognitive dissonance.

Reality is that both points are right. Anyone can make a crypto and they are not rare while bitcoin has great branding. That's exactly why the future is completely uncertain and speculative.

If enough people think something has value, it will have value. Period! But let's not fool ourselves where this value is contrived from. As it stands it is a relatively useless bunch of zeroes and ones that use up a significant amount of energy to create. As I see it there are 3 uses today:
1) Criminal activity
2) Speculation that someone will buy it from you for more than you paid.
3) As a way to replace a quickly depreciating currency.

I would bet #1 and #2 likely dominate the market. I have no way of proving that, it is just a suspicion from reading articles, forums, and seeing news stories.

As for #3, I wonder who is selling bitcoins for a quickly depreciating currency? Why would someone sell bitcoins and get bolivars in their place?

EnjoyIt
Posts: 3397
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:47 am

patrick wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:38 am
boomer_techie wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:32 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.
In its simplest form, a blockchain is simply a set of blocks where each block has a hash of the previous block. There's no requirement to be slow, cumbersome and expensive.

Here's a use for blockchain: A university could use it to publicly publish student grades. (Each student's grades would likely be encrypted with that student's key.) The block for each semester would link back to the previous semester. This way the school could prove that their football team's star senior receiver has been an A student all the way back to when he was a red shirt freshman on crutches.
What is to stop someone from creating fake blocks for the first three years and then linking the senior grade block back through the chain of old fake blocks? In the case of bitcoin itself, retroactive changes are made impractical by the large aggregate hash rate. But if this is on some other blockchain, it won't have nearly as much hash power on it, and thus generating an equally valid fake chain becomes feasible.
I may be wrong, but if greater than 50% of the miners have a fake block, then that block is considered valid and is no longer fake. Please someone correct me if I am wrong or misunderstand.

patrick
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by patrick » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:08 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:47 am
patrick wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:38 am
boomer_techie wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:32 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.
In its simplest form, a blockchain is simply a set of blocks where each block has a hash of the previous block. There's no requirement to be slow, cumbersome and expensive.

Here's a use for blockchain: A university could use it to publicly publish student grades. (Each student's grades would likely be encrypted with that student's key.) The block for each semester would link back to the previous semester. This way the school could prove that their football team's star senior receiver has been an A student all the way back to when he was a red shirt freshman on crutches.
What is to stop someone from creating fake blocks for the first three years and then linking the senior grade block back through the chain of old fake blocks? In the case of bitcoin itself, retroactive changes are made impractical by the large aggregate hash rate. But if this is on some other blockchain, it won't have nearly as much hash power on it, and thus generating an equally valid fake chain becomes feasible.
I may be wrong, but if greater than 50% of the miners have a fake block, then that block is considered valid and is no longer fake. Please someone correct me if I am wrong or misunderstand.
That was sort of my point. The block would be valid in blockchain terms but "fake" in terms of having tampered with the previously published grades, so this application doesn't work.

gips
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by gips » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:27 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:45 am
As I see it there are 3 uses today:
1) Criminal activity
2) Speculation that someone will buy it from you for more than you paid.
3) As a way to replace a quickly depreciating currency.

I would bet #1 and #2 likely dominate the market. I have no way of proving that, it is just a suspicion from reading articles, forums, and seeing news stories.

As for #3, I wonder who is selling bitcoins for a quickly depreciating currency? Why would someone sell bitcoins and get bolivars in their place?
there's a 4th use case, frictionless peer-to-peer payments in 3rd-world countries that have poor banking/payments infrastructure.

w33ps
Posts: 14
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by w33ps » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:42 am

kosomoto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm
Bitcoin is NOT an investment.

It does not produce cash flow or the promise of future cash flow. It produces nothing.

Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Bonds, stocks, real estate all produce cash flow or have the potential to do so.

No matter what happens with bitcoin it will not suddenly start producing cash flow.

Bitcoin can be adopted as the worldwide currency and it still wouldn’t be an investment.

You are simply gambling on the fact that people will be willing to pay more per bitcoin in the future.
While cash flow production is something not currently associated with Bitcoin, this statement cannot be said for all cryptocurrencies in the near future: https://www.coindesk.com/buterin-propos ... n-industry

Valuethinker
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:07 am

JonnyDVM wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:42 pm
Ok. I’ll admit I’m starting to think I should consider getting in on this. I have maintained, and still maintain crypto is incredibly stupid. But other people, for reasons that continue to elude me, seem to think otherwise. They passionately believe in this stuff. I’ve talked to them. It’s true. They really do. So why should I not capitalize off of this? Surely the beanie baby middle man pocketed a small fortune. As did the guy selling the tulip bulbs. The key is just not to be the one holding the bag. Anyone that bought bitcoin when this thread started has nearly tripled up.
But is down 50% from the peak ;-). At least when it was $20k I doubt many people actually managed to sell at that price - selling seems to get harder and harder with this thing.

If I don't understand something, but think it is in some sense intrinsically speculative or worthless, then I have a pretty strong conviction that *I* am more likely than not to be left carrying the bag when the music stops.

Of course, that kept me out of MJ stocks (the legal, Canadian ones). Which has been a mistake ;-).

I think one has to analyse the way they teach you to analyse a new business prospect in business school:

- what is the problem or need that this product or service addresses?
- what distinguishes this product or solution from other available alternatives or solutions? Is it cheaper, faster, unique?
- what is the potential to create "open water" between this company & any competitors or substitutes? Speed of implementation? Proprietary knowledge or skills? Market position? Brand quality? Viral marketing? Business resources (usually in brains & coding skills, but could be in something else).

I am seeing these business plans that seem to be "buy a bunch of cryptos, and make a mint". That does not sound good.

Another line is "it's crypto, and everyone will be using it, so that will drive the value up for those holding it". Again, that does not seem like a good line of argument.

If I lived in a country with exchange controls and/or high inflation, then I can see its utility.

Periodically I get extortion emails demanding payment in Bitcoin. That does not make me want to touch it.

HawkeyePierce
Posts: 928
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HawkeyePierce » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:48 am

boomer_techie wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:32 am
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:17 pm
Until then, I stand by what I said. Blockchain is a slow, cumbersome and expensive solution in search of problems that have already been solved.
In its simplest form, a blockchain is simply a set of blocks where each block has a hash of the previous block. There's no requirement to be slow, cumbersome and expensive.

Here's a use for blockchain: A university could use it to publicly publish student grades. (Each student's grades would likely be encrypted with that student's key.) The block for each semester would link back to the previous semester. This way the school could prove that their football team's star senior receiver has been an A student all the way back to when he was a red shirt freshman on crutches.
Why do you need blockchain to solve this? Just stick the grades in a plain old SQL database. In any case this wouldn’t prove anything. A blockchain like this is only as trustworthy as the data input into it. What’s to stop someone from fudging the data before it reaches the blockchain?

EnjoyIt
Posts: 3397
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:19 pm

How can anything be a store of wealth that is so volatile?

Pure speculation here.

w33ps
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by w33ps » Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:47 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:07 am
JonnyDVM wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:42 pm
Ok. I’ll admit I’m starting to think I should consider getting in on this. I have maintained, and still maintain crypto is incredibly stupid. But other people, for reasons that continue to elude me, seem to think otherwise. They passionately believe in this stuff. I’ve talked to them. It’s true. They really do. So why should I not capitalize off of this? Surely the beanie baby middle man pocketed a small fortune. As did the guy selling the tulip bulbs. The key is just not to be the one holding the bag. Anyone that bought bitcoin when this thread started has nearly tripled up.
But is down 50% from the peak ;-). At least when it was $20k I doubt many people actually managed to sell at that price - selling seems to get harder and harder with this thing.

If I don't understand something, but think it is in some sense intrinsically speculative or worthless, then I have a pretty strong conviction that *I* am more likely than not to be left carrying the bag when the music stops.

Of course, that kept me out of MJ stocks (the legal, Canadian ones). Which has been a mistake ;-).

I think one has to analyse the way they teach you to analyse a new business prospect in business school:

- what is the problem or need that this product or service addresses?
- what distinguishes this product or solution from other available alternatives or solutions? Is it cheaper, faster, unique?
- what is the potential to create "open water" between this company & any competitors or substitutes? Speed of implementation? Proprietary knowledge or skills? Market position? Brand quality? Viral marketing? Business resources (usually in brains & coding skills, but could be in something else).

I am seeing these business plans that seem to be "buy a bunch of cryptos, and make a mint". That does not sound good.

Another line is "it's crypto, and everyone will be using it, so that will drive the value up for those holding it". Again, that does not seem like a good line of argument.

If I lived in a country with exchange controls and/or high inflation, then I can see its utility.

Periodically I get extortion emails demanding payment in Bitcoin. That does not make me want to touch it.
Actually only currently down about 33% from the peak...and that percentage is dropping! :sharebeer

Boglescientist
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:10 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Boglescientist » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:32 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:19 pm
How can anything be a store of wealth that is so volatile?

Pure speculation here.
Bitcoin has been around for a decade .What was the volatility of USD , gold in the first two decades?

While I healthy skepticism with Bitcoin is necessary, hate of Bitcoin displayed here with lack of basic understanding is surprising.

Most Bitcoinners follow the concept of HODL..buy and hold similar to BH investing in index fund...and in fact if u had invested in Bitcoin at anytime in the past decade you would be mostly up unless u bought it only at $20k high. Even at $20k high if u didnt panic and hold on to it, u will come up front eventually.

With so much of the world turning digital and AI based, and mutilpe unstable governments leading to hyperinflation, not exposing yourself to Bitcoin is the risk 8-)

alfaspider
Posts: 2350
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by alfaspider » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:35 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am
alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:17 pm


Completely agree. It’s like gold. I mean, who uses gold? I’ve yet to meet any person who has paid for a car, or a meal, or a new pair of shoes, with gold. What gives?
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.

It’s just another example of the (I’m sorry) ridiculous arguments here against Bitcoin.

Coke is basically just sugar and water! Anyone can make a sugary soft drink! Ergo, Coke is worthless!
One difference between Coke and bitcoin is that branding is not the only value-add component. There are plenty of unbranded knock-offs of Coke, and they tend to have a price floor of roughly half. That is because sugar, water, flavoring, and packaging do have a real cost. The Coke branding guarantees a consistent flavor and quality, which is where the brand is value add.

In the case of bitcoin, the cost of production of a new altcoin is near zero. There's really no experience or quality control to preserve. An in fact, bitcoin itself has serious technological limitations that make it especially cumbersome to transact. Quality control and experience isn't great, especially given the numerous high-profile hacks and failures of bitcoin exchanges.

Nevertheless, I do concede that even without underlying substance, branding can have a tremendous value. There is only so much mindspace in the investor world for crypto brands, and it seems unlikely that bitcoin will fail to occupy that mindspace in the future. Still, I see it mostly as a vehicle for speculation- even if there are the potential for large profits at some point in the future. Branding can be a fickle thing, and the world is littered with brands that used to be big and are now nothing more than a historical footnote.

For what it's worth, I am still kicking myself for not setting up my desktop gaming computer to mine bitcoins way back when it was brand new and one could mine a significant number with such ordinary hardware. I remember reading the article where some magazine writer paid hundreds of thousands of bitcoins for a pizza and thought it might be fun to mine a few. Never got around to it of course. I suppose I also could have bought Google at the IPO :sharebeer

a5ehren
Posts: 75
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 7:48 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by a5ehren » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:48 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:35 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:28 am
alwayshedge wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:19 pm
robertmcd wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:08 pm


The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is zero rarity and tangibility. That is what makes classic ferraris, art, gold, etc. have value. The supply of cryptocurrency is endless. It is made up money that can be conjured out of thin air electronically. People say there are a limited number of bitcoin available. Okay that is great, but I just invented SuperAwesomeHappyCoin and it is twice as rare so you should start paying $20,000 for a serial number that says its yours.
I'm not a big proponent of cryptocurrencies but your premise is flawed. Yes cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone but hash rate cannot. You're argument makes it very clear you don't know what your talking about. Sorry to be a bit harsh..
Poster is right that anyone can create a cryptocurrency making the amount of currencies unlimited. A specific coin is limited by its mining rate.

It’s just another example of the (I’m sorry) ridiculous arguments here against Bitcoin.

Coke is basically just sugar and water! Anyone can make a sugary soft drink! Ergo, Coke is worthless!
One difference between Coke and bitcoin is that branding is not the only value-add component. There are plenty of unbranded knock-offs of Coke, and they tend to have a price floor of roughly half. That is because sugar, water, flavoring, and packaging do have a real cost. The Coke branding guarantees a consistent flavor and quality, which is where the brand is value add.

In the case of bitcoin, the cost of production of a new altcoin is near zero. There's really no experience or quality control to preserve. An in fact, bitcoin itself has serious technological limitations that make it especially cumbersome to transact. Quality control and experience isn't great, especially given the numerous high-profile hacks and failures of bitcoin exchanges.

Nevertheless, I do concede that even without underlying substance, branding can have a tremendous value. There is only so much mindspace in the investor world for crypto brands, and it seems unlikely that bitcoin will fail to occupy that mindspace in the future. Still, I see it mostly as a vehicle for speculation- even if there are the potential for large profits at some point in the future. Branding can be a fickle thing, and the world is littered with brands that used to be big and are now nothing more than a historical footnote.

For what it's worth, I am still kicking myself for not setting up my desktop gaming computer to mine bitcoins way back when it was brand new and one could mine a significant number with such ordinary hardware. I remember reading the article where some magazine writer paid hundreds of thousands of bitcoins for a pizza and thought it might be fun to mine a few. Never got around to it of course. I suppose I also could have bought Google at the IPO :sharebeer
I've had the same thoughts, but just take comfort in the fact that you most likely would have lost all of those early coins when Mt. Gox failed, so your net loss is nothing.

Bitcoin is utterly useless for anyone operating in normal society. Imagine if Visa took 30x longer to process transactions and used more power than Iceland to cover 1/10,000th of their present volume. They'd be crucified as idiots, and rightly so.

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