Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
columbia
Posts: 1747
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by columbia » Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:46 am

Heard this sentiment on a prominent radio show this past week:

The all time high for Bitcoin was only actually on one day and you’re fine, provided that you weren’t buying then (or near that date).

Said radio show also promotes owning gold. While I do not have proof, it is reasonable to guess that said radio hosts have a financial interest (beyond their personal holdings) in others buying gold, Bitcoin and probably silver. At a minimum, it receives advertising dollars from companies, which sell these commodities.

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 8060
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Sandtrap » Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:57 am

Image
How can it be surmised that now is a good time?

. . . . I prefer Index Funds. :happy
j
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

User avatar
Carlos Danger
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:32 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Carlos Danger » Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:38 am

WELP. Guess I'm not buying myself a new GPU this Christmas.

Seems like every time I want to upgrade it takes off again and drives prices through the roof.

I don't understand why people continue to eat at Chipotle no matter how many customers they sicken, and I don't understand why people continue to "invest" in Bitcoin no matter how many times people "lose" their imaginary assets to hacks, scams, etc. and how many times the alleged benefits of it go away (Bitcoin promoters - "Bitcoin is great because no govt!" *Govt. moves to regulate* Bitcoin promoters - "Bitcoin is great because govt. regulation will legitimize it! Also you skeptics are idiots and just don't, like, get it man.")

I'm sure tulip skeptics were often ridiculed and talked down to by those who lucked into wealth increases during the mania too.

User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 6680
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by bertilak » Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:49 am

If the bulls are running it is probably best to step aside.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker, the Cowboy Poet

User avatar
ohboy!
Posts: 119
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:21 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by ohboy! » Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:04 am

bertilak wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:49 am
If the bulls are running it is probably best to step aside.
Guess you are out of the s&p then too?

FinTruth
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat May 02, 2015 11:08 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by FinTruth » Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:52 am

Noone clearly has any idea what will happen to Bitcoin. I do not normally gamble on such things, but I started with a few Bitcoins at around $550.

Then as the rest of the cryptocurrencies started becoming more popular, I figured I would do the most Boglehead thing possible for investing in cryptos, I started making myself a sort of "index fund" of cryptos. Put $3K in Bitcoin, $1k in Etherium, $1k in Litecoin, and then $5k in XRP. More coins were being launched, but I got tired of tracking all the new ones, and many of them are difficult to find a place to purchase. They were up to $240K in aggregate at one point, crashed down to less than $50k, and are back up to $120k.

I will stay in for a while, probably a long while. Probably not the right way to look at it, but for a $10k initial investment, I will see where this goes long term. Everyone is telling me that I was crazy to not sell at the $240k mark, but who knows what will happen. If these truly get adopted and become mainstream, this really could increase in value dramatically. I give that chance of happening at maybe 5%.

User avatar
Cycle
Posts: 1364
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 7:57 pm
Location: Minneapolis

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Cycle » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:14 am

I am not. Speculating on currencies isn't investing.

I'll get in if the USD becomes unstable and I can pay my bills with something more stable which happens to be crypto. This frankly won't happen with bitcoin, ever.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

User avatar
StormShadow
Posts: 725
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:20 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by StormShadow » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:25 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.
Correct. So why do you think that’ll suddenly change? Seriously, what is going through your head when you ask? Not to be mean, but look at the title of the forum. Look at what this forum is all about. Diversification. Simplification. Anti-speculation. Basically everything that crypto is not.

Crypto is heavily overvalued at best, and a huge con job at worst.

Bottom line, it’s a stupid bet.

chessknt
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:15 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by chessknt » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:30 am

I also think purchasing it to give it value further encourages it as the currency of choice for cyber criminals. Say what you want about our banking system, they make it a lot harder for hackers to terrorize municipalities in to paying ransoms.

am
Posts: 2978
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by am » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:36 am

StormShadow wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:25 am
newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.
Correct. So why do you think that’ll suddenly change? Seriously, what is going through your head when you ask? Not to be mean, but look at the title of the forum. Look at what this forum is all about. Diversification. Simplification. Anti-speculation. Basically everything that crypto is not.

Crypto is heavily overvalued at best, and a huge con job at worst.

Bottom line, it’s a stupid bet.
Majority of people are not bogleheads, are irrational and greedy. Bitcoin is not just US also. Remember that. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere and is here to stay. Having said that, 99%+ of my money is in 3 funder.

lostdog
Posts: 1859
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by lostdog » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:40 am

No. Avoiding sh@#tcoin.
VTWAX+BNDW

EnjoyIt
Posts: 2271
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm

It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.

am
Posts: 2978
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by am » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:06 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm
It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.
Yes, my intention is to have as many bogleheads buy bitcoin so my 4 figure stake goes to 7 figures. Then I’m going to sell boglehesds water front property in Vegas. :D

JHU ALmuni
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by JHU ALmuni » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:27 pm

Definitely got in and already more than tripled my money. High risk = high return.

bgf
Posts: 969
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:35 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by bgf » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm

until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

am
Posts: 2978
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by am » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:41 pm

bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
Bitcoin has evolved into a digital store of wealth.

User avatar
Nate79
Posts: 4814
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Delaware

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Nate79 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:43 pm

am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:41 pm
bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
Bitcoin has evolved into a digital store of wealth.
In what fantasy world has this ever been true?

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 14553
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by abuss368 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:56 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:57 am
Image
How can it be surmised that now is a good time?

. . . . I prefer Index Funds. :happy
j
That chart is incredible. I can't even imagine such rampant speculation.

When will the gamblers and speculators learn?
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!"

ksleo
Posts: 25
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by ksleo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:51 pm

Like one previous poster mentioned, I also own a tiny amount. Less than 1 percent of NW.

The dollar has value because the us govt can defend it with the us military. Cryptos have value because they don't need to be defended in the first place.

I think cryptos are here to stay and I'll buy more most likely.
Actions have consequences.

User avatar
Carlos Danger
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:32 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Carlos Danger » Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:36 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:43 pm
am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:41 pm
bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
Bitcoin has evolved into a digital store of wealth.
In what fantasy world has this ever been true?
It's true now, provided one is reckless enough to use it as a store of wealth.

TropikThunder
Posts: 1621
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by TropikThunder » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:21 am

Carlos Danger wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:36 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:43 pm
am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:41 pm
bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
Bitcoin has evolved into a digital store of wealth.
In what fantasy world has this ever been true?
It's true now, provided one is reckless enough to use it as a store of wealth.
Yeah he didn't say effective store of wealth. :P

TropikThunder
Posts: 1621
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by TropikThunder » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:22 am

I've said it before on here (not that it's any great revelation) but there's no way something can simultaneously be a currency and an investment. An investment isn't worth anything if it can't outpace inflation, and a currency isn't worth anything if it's not stable.

User avatar
Spinola
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:32 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Spinola » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:48 am

The more bullish Bitcoin is, the further away one should be.. :mrgreen:

daveokc
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:43 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by daveokc » Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:40 am

Parallels to consider:

Early 1990s: "The internet and e-commerce are coming, whether businesses like it or not."
2019: "Blockchain technology is coming, whether businesses like it or not."

Bitcoin is to (myspace) as Calibra is to (Facebook)

Number of business organizations with Facebook accounts in 2005: approx. 0.00
Number of business organizations with Facebook accounts in 2019: approx. 29.42 quadrillion (rounding up, of course).

Number of business organizations with Calibra accounts in 2019: approx. 0.00
Number of individuals and business organizations with Calibra accounts in 2029: approx. 119.04 sextillion (estimated).

HawkeyePierce
Posts: 540
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:29 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HawkeyePierce » Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am

Nobody—and I mean that literally—has found a viable use for blockchain technology. Turns out there's not much reason to want an extremely slow distributed database.

I'm extremely skeptical of Calibra. Facebook has had a terrible track record in launching new products. They were a one-hit wonder that managed to buy all their later challengers (Instagram and Whatsapp, principally). Nothing organic out of FB has caught on since then and I don't see any reason to believe this will be different.

Valuethinker
Posts: 38436
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:02 am

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am
Nobody—and I mean that literally—has found a viable use for blockchain technology. Turns out there's not much reason to want an extremely slow distributed database.

I'm extremely skeptical of Calibra. Facebook has had a terrible track record in launching new products. They were a one-hit wonder that managed to buy all their later challengers (Instagram and Whatsapp, principally). Nothing organic out of FB has caught on since then and I don't see any reason to believe this will be different.
The problem of micro payments between individuals is a big problem. Particularly across international boundaries.

In addition several billion people are unbanked.

If they can crack the issues re fraud and money laundering and financial services regulation I could see this as a significant product.

The federated nature of it though usually means cumbersome and lengthy delays in adapting the product.

That is usually fatal in the internet world.

ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:51 am

JHU ALmuni wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:27 pm
Definitely got in and already more than tripled my money. High risk = high return.
There are some other possibilities that come with taking on high risk.

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 8060
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Sandtrap » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:56 am

What is the measurable correlation between Bitcoin/Crypto-Currency; the market, the economy, inflation, interest rates, and the strength of the dollar (USA)??
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

User avatar
Carlos Danger
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:32 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Carlos Danger » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:01 am

daveokc wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:40 am
Parallels to consider:

Early 1990s: "The internet and e-commerce are coming, whether businesses like it or not."
2019: "Blockchain technology is coming, whether businesses like it or not."
Valid comparison. Blockchain technology may be the next big thing/world altering technology. I personally think not quite to the level of internet and e-commerce, but I can certainly see some obvious practical applications.

As for bitcoin itself, if blockchain is analogous to the internet and e-commerce, then Bitcoin could be analogous to Amazon.com. Or Pets.com. My view would be the latter.

bgf
Posts: 969
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:35 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by bgf » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:08 am

ksleo wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:51 pm

The dollar has value because the us govt can defend it with the us military. Cryptos have value because they don't need to be defended in the first place.

I think cryptos are here to stay and I'll buy more most likely.
I don't think that's why the dollar has value... The reason the dollar has value is because 100s of millions of people and many sovereign governments ultimately rely for survival on its having value.

If the dollar flatlined, holders of US debt would be wiped out, no? Who wants those interest payments?

say that about litecoin... or dogecoin... or beanie babies or whatever.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

youngpleb
Posts: 274
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:06 pm
Location: VA, USA

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by youngpleb » Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:58 pm

I jumped in during the bubble madness, and rode that slide all the way down and back up to the current spot. I'm still down 75% but I enjoy the little bit I have invested and it keeps me distracted from stuff like the stock market. Unfortunately I never actually bought Bitcoin lol. In hindsight, I would go 50% BTC, 25% ETH, and 25% a mixture of alts if I could do it over again.

EnjoyIt
Posts: 2271
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:02 pm

am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm
It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.
Yes, my intention is to have as many bogleheads buy bitcoin so my 4 figure stake goes to 7 figures. Then I’m going to sell boglehesds water front property in Vegas. :D
Who knows what your intentions are. Conscious or subconscious you have a motivation to have others buy bitcoin. It is in your best interest.

am
Posts: 2978
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by am » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:38 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:02 pm
am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm
It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.
Yes, my intention is to have as many bogleheads buy bitcoin so my 4 figure stake goes to 7 figures. Then I’m going to sell boglehesds water front property in Vegas. :D
Who knows what your intentions are. Conscious or subconscious you have a motivation to have others buy bitcoin. It is in your best interest.
I don’t think bitcoin is nearly as bad as you stodgy bogleheads think. There are numerous irrational greedy speculators involved in its trade all over the world. It is not going anywhere. There are far riskier bets out there.

I am a diehard 3 funder for many years but jumped into bitcoin with a tiny bit of portfolio for fun. If it goes to 0, so be it, I will hardly notice. But if it gets to 50k a coin, I might cash out and get a new car! Playing by the boglehead book 100% is no fun.

ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:46 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:02 pm
am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm
It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.
Yes, my intention is to have as many bogleheads buy bitcoin so my 4 figure stake goes to 7 figures. Then I’m going to sell boglehesds water front property in Vegas. :D
Who knows what your intentions are. Conscious or subconscious you have a motivation to have others buy bitcoin. It is in your best interest.
Well I guess then we're all guilty and should have our intentions challenged with most every post.

mikemikemike
Posts: 104
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:25 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by mikemikemike » Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:48 pm

It's hard to predict which coin will be used in future. If you want to long crypto in general, I'd suggest buying stocks of all the chipmakers. Bonus: also get in on the AI & data center action (minus the in-house new chips like Google TPU's, etc.)

rkhusky
Posts: 6900
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by rkhusky » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:03 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:51 am
JHU ALmuni wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:27 pm
Definitely got in and already more than tripled my money. High risk = high return.
There are some other possibilities that come with taking on high risk.
Beanie Babies. Sometimes the risk shows up. The higher the risk, the more likely the risk will show up.

High risk = chance of high return

Even if block chain goes mainstream, all the money could go to a company that doesn’t exist yet.

EnjoyIt
Posts: 2271
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by EnjoyIt » Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:14 pm

am wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:38 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:02 pm
am wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:04 pm
It is in the best interest of bitcoin owners to ridicule those who put down bitcoin and encourage others to buy as much as possible.

I have no stake in cryptocurrency and don't care to much what happens to it.
Yes, my intention is to have as many bogleheads buy bitcoin so my 4 figure stake goes to 7 figures. Then I’m going to sell boglehesds water front property in Vegas. :D
Who knows what your intentions are. Conscious or subconscious you have a motivation to have others buy bitcoin. It is in your best interest.
I don’t think bitcoin is nearly as bad as you stodgy bogleheads think. There are numerous irrational greedy speculators involved in its trade all over the world. It is not going anywhere. There are far riskier bets out there.

I am a diehard 3 funder for many years but jumped into bitcoin with a tiny bit of portfolio for fun. If it goes to 0, so be it, I will hardly notice. But if it gets to 50k a coin, I might cash out and get a new car! Playing by the boglehead book 100% is no fun.
Not sure why you think I’m a stodgy boglehead. I can understand the appeal in speculating. Still does not change the fact that for bitcoin value to grow, the community needs more speculation which incentivizes crypto currency evangelism.

Momus
Posts: 690
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:23 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Momus » Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:35 pm

Everyone and their mom can make a new crypto every day. No way I will touch this. The supply is literally unlimited.

tjhar
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue May 12, 2015 3:13 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by tjhar » Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:10 am

Is there a crypto ETF or index fund?

neofight
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:14 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by neofight » Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:10 am

Grayscale (https://grayscale.co/) has several ETFs:
- Bitcoin - ticker GBTC
- Ethereum - ticker ETHE
- Ethereum Classic - ticker ETCG

User avatar
sperry8
Posts: 1798
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by sperry8 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:11 am

JHU ALmuni wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:27 pm
Definitely got in and already more than tripled my money. High risk = high return.
You haven't tripled anything... until you sell. Sell, and then let us know about your triple. Otherwise in a month you could be back down to where you started. The volatility in BC is insane
BH contest results: 2018: #150 of 493 | 2017: #516 of 647 | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13136
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:26 am

daveokc wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:40 am
Parallels to consider:

Early 1990s: "The internet and e-commerce are coming, whether businesses like it or not."
2019: "Blockchain technology is coming, whether businesses like it or not."
Blockchain technology is far more than bitcoin.

You could believe in automobiles being the wave of the future back in the 1890s, and be right, and still go broke investing in the wrong car companies.

Here's just the Bs of failed U.S. car companies. Look at those dates. Lots of early adopters that failed.

Babcock, H.H. Company (1909–1913)[27]
Babcok Electric Carriage Co. (1906–1912)
Baby Moose (1914)
Bachelle Electric (1900–1903)[9]
Bacon (1901, 1919–1920)[9]
Badger (1910–1911)[28]
Based in Wisconsin
Bailey (1907–1910)[9]
Baker Electric (1899–1916)[29]
Based in Cleveland
Balboa (1924–1925)[9]
Baldner (1900–1903)[9]
Baldwin (1899–1901)[9]
Ball Steam (1868, 1902)[9]
Balzer (1894–1900)
Banker (1905)[9]
Bantam (1914)[30]
Distinct from American Bantam
Barbarino (1923–1925)[9]
Barley Motor Car Co. (1916–1929)
Barrows Electric (1895–1899)[31]
Bates Automobile Company (1904–1905)
Bauer (1914–1916)[9][where?]
Bay State (1907–1908)[9]
Bean-Chamberlain Manufacturing Co. (1901–1902)
Hudson model
Beardsley (1914–1917)[9]
Beechcraft (1946)[32]
Beggs (1919–1923)[9]
Belden (1907–1911)[9]
Bell Motor Car Company (1916–1922)[33]
Based in Pennsylvania
Belmont Electric Auto Co. (1909–1910)
Belmont (1916)[34][where?]
Bendix (1908–1909)[9]
Benham Manufacturing Co. (1914)
Ben Hur (1917–1918)[35]
Based in Cleveland
Benner (1909)[9]
Berg (1903–1905)[36]
Based in Cleveland
Bergdoll (1910–1913)[9]
Berwick Auto Car Co. (1904)
Berkshire (1905–1912)[9]
Berliet[9][when?]
Bertolet (1908–1910)[9]
Bethlehem[37][when?]
Beverly (1904)[9]
Bi-Autogo (1908–1912)[38]
Biddle (1915–1922)
Beisel Motorette Company (1914)
Bimel (1916–1917)[9]
Binghamton Electric (1920)
Binney & Burnham (1901–1902)
Birch Motor Cars (1916–1923)[11]
Birmingham Motors (1921–1923)[9]
Black (1893, 1896–1900)[where?]
Black Motor Company (1908–1910))[39] Renamed to 'Black-Crow' in 1909
Blackhawk (1903)[9]
Blackhawk (1929–1930)
Bliss (1906)
B.L.M. (1906–1907)[9]
Blomstrom (C.H.) Motor Co. (1902–1903)[9][where?]
Blomstrom Manufacturing Co. (1907–1908)[9]
Gyroscope model, based in Michigan.
Blood Brothers Auto and Machine Company (1902–1906)
Blue Bird Corporation (1932)
BMC (1952)[40]
Distinct from the British brand
Boardman (1946)[32]
Bobbi-Kar (1945–1947)[32]
Boisselot (1901)[9]
Borbein Electric (1900, 1904–1909)[9]
Borland Electric (1910–1916)[9]
Boss Steam Car (1897–1909)[41]
Boston-Amesbury (1902–1903)[9]
Boston High Wheel (1907)[9]
Bour-Davis Co. (1915–1922)
Bournonville[9][when?]
Bowman Motor Car Company (1921–1922)[9]
Bramwell (1904–1905)[9][where?]
Bramwell-Robinson (1899–1902)[9][where?]
Brasie (1914–1916)[9]
Brazier (1902–1903)[9]
Brecht (1901–1903)[41]
Brennan (1902–1908)[9]
Brew-Hatcher (1904–1905)
Brewster & Co. (1915–1925, 1934–1937)
Briggs and Stratton (1919–1923)[9]
Smith Flyer model
Briggs-Detroiter Motor Car Co. (1912–1917)
Brightwood[9][when?]
Briscoe Motor Co. (1913–1923)
Bristol (1903–1904)[41]
Broc Electric (1909–1916)[42]
Based in Cleveland
Brogan (1946–1950)[32]
Brook (1920–1921)[9]
Brooks Steamer (1927)[9]
Brown (1914)[9]
Brownie (1916)[43]
Browniekar (1908–1911)[43]
Brush Motor Car Company (1907–1912)
Bryan Steam Car (1918–1923)
Buckeye (1895)[44]
Based in Indiana
Buckmobile (1903–1905)
Buffalo Automobile and Auto-Bi Company (1900–1902)[9]
Buffalo Electric (1912–1915)
Buffum (1901–1907)
Buggy Car Company (1908–1909)[9]
Bugmobile (1907–1909)[45]
Based in Chicago
Burdick (1909)[43]
Burg (1910–1913)[43]
Burns (1908–1912)[43]
Burrows (1914–1915)
Burtt Manufacturing Co. (1902–1906)[9]
Cannon model
Bush (1916–1924)
The J stands for Jay

MoeMoney
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:25 am

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by MoeMoney » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:29 am

Got in, doubled my stack, pulled principle (and a little bit more to cover taxes). It's all house money now.

Started in early 2017 and for sure got caught up in the euphoria of the rise throughout the end of that year. Made really stupid investment decisions ($ETH at $1,200 :oops: ) but found the willpower to exit my principle. Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin ($LTC), going on Twitter/ national TV saying he sold it all (at the top!) was my sell signal. Not apples to apples but I thought to myself "what CEO would sell all of their shares if they believed in the future?" - None. Note that I did not sell at the top as it took me a few weeks to convince myself to sell - Pure greed and "what if" thinking.

I guess the moral of the story is to take risks that you can afford (preferably in spaces you understand or are willing to educate yourself) and stay disciplined. Have a plan and execute on the plan.

GCD
Posts: 996
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:11 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by GCD » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:46 am

am wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:38 pm
Playing by the boglehead book 100% is no fun.
You nailed it here. I've completely bought into the idea that investing, done right, is boring.

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13136
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:18 am

GCD wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:46 am
am wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:38 pm
Playing by the boglehead book 100% is no fun.
You nailed it here. I've completely bought into the idea that investing, done right, is boring.
That's how you know you're doing it right.
The J stands for Jay

Tamalak
Posts: 606
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Tamalak » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:26 am

No way. Cryptocurrency is currency. The future expected return on it is 0 (plus inflation since it's not an inflationary currency). I'm not interested in buying it to make money any more than I'd be interested in buying a Peso to make money.

I'll buy a Peso if I plan to visit Mexico. I'll buy cryptocurrency if I plan to use it as currency. Otherwise, I'll buy things that actually produce value, like companies.

User avatar
zonto
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:45 pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by zonto » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:36 am

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am
Nobody—and I mean that literally—has found a viable use for blockchain technology. Turns out there's not much reason to want an extremely slow distributed database.

. . . .
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

If you make unqualified statements like this, you best be able to back them up. A cursory Google search would show you are not. See: https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... Channel=RI
“Diversification is about accepting good enough while missing out on great but avoiding terrible.” - Ben Carlson

neofight
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:14 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by neofight » Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:25 pm

neofight wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:10 am
Grayscale (https://grayscale.co/) has several ETFs:
- Bitcoin - ticker GBTC
- Ethereum - ticker ETHE
- Ethereum Classic - ticker ETCG
I'm bullish on crypto despite being otherwise Boglehead-ey, but one caveat here: the underlying asset value of these funds is only a small percentage of the current 'market value' of the fund.

For example, GBTC is currently trading OTC at ~$15 with ~230M shares outstanding, each share represents ~1/1000th of a BTC and at today's BTC spot this means the Bitcoin AUM is ~$2.5B, while the GBTC fund is valued at ~$3.5B, so a multiple of 1.43 over the underlying value. You're paying this multiple (and the 2.5% AUM fees) for the convenience of holding a listed fund in a normal brokerage/401k/IRA account. If this is worth it to hold bitcoin, is an exercise "left up to the reader".

In the case of ETHE, this multiple is an eye-popping 5.8x. I struggle to conceive of any world where this kind of multiple is even remotely justified.
Last edited by neofight on Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

alfaspider
Posts: 2070
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by alfaspider » Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:21 pm

My fundamental problem with cryptocurrency is that all evidence suggests very few legitimate transactions are being conducted where cryptocurrency is being exchanged for goods and services. Even where retailers claim they "accept" bitcoin, they are really accepting $USD and just exchanging bitcoin for USD at the time of the transaction. There are inherent problems with crytocurrency that will make it hard to change that in the near future. The older cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have timing and scale problems. For new cryptocurrencies, you have the problem that there is no limit to how many new cryptocurrencies can be created, so how do you ensure your cryptocurrency maintains any value over others?

As such, it seems that the vast majority of cryptocurrency has no use other than a vehicle for speculation. I don't doubt that well-timed speculators can make a lot of money but ill-timed speculation will lose an offsetting amount. I suppose it's no worse than going to the casino (perhaps a bit better as the "house" take isn't necessarily fixed against you in the same way). Finally, I find cryptocurrency to be incredibly inefficient. The deadweight economic an environmental loss of all those computers humming away on "mining" seems rather silly. "Old school" government-backed currency use a tiny fraction of the energy to produce and distribute.

Blockchain technology appears to have some interesting uses, but mostly in the same way that other computer database methodologies do. Very interesting for people in tech, but the implications to the broader universe seem more limited than many blockchain evangelists forecast. Of course, not all crypo uses blockchain. In that sense, crypto does seem like an interesting invitation to invent better databases.

rj342
Posts: 456
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:21 pm

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by rj342 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:07 pm

ohboy! wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:39 am
Been in since $650. $11k feels pretty good. I’m guessing we will retest the previous high this year. $40k BTC is possible by 2020.

Index investors are in if they want to be or not. The network that crypto uses is big. The hardware and communications have to come from somewhere. With FB you can see the exposure is increasing. The technology is going nowhere and the original concept is Bitcoin.
Assume you mean "not going away" :beer

Post Reply