Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

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newtothiswhat
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Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by newtothiswhat » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm

I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.

But after some research I felt it was worth putting in 0.5% of my net worth in it. Money which I would not lose sleep over even if it all went crashing down to zero.

There have been pretty good signs of blockchain / cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger.
1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins.
2) Institutional investors and venture capital money have been pouring into cryptocurrency or blockchain startups. The biggest one I read about was GIC (of Singapore) investing in Coinbase.
3) Signs of increasing adoption. Where I come from, crypto is increasingly accepted as a form of payment. So its not like it is purely an investment. I have paid for stuff in crypto too.
4) Bubble has clearly popped. Entry at this stage would be investing in a contrarian style.

So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?

Edit 1: For those wondering. I long BTC and XMR.
Edit 2: @nisiprius made a great point about people losing crypto. That is so damn true! For those investing, be sure to read up on cryptocurrency security guides eg. https://whotookmycrypto.com/
Edit 3: @PurpleArc mentioned about there being tonnes of scam coins. You can check out a good list of this in https://deadcoins.com/
Last edited by newtothiswhat on Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:07 am, edited 5 times in total.

jibantik
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jibantik » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:19 pm

Nope. Any money i'd put in crypto i'd rather put into VTWAX.

Also, didn't they determine the last bull was due to some bad actors performing price manipulation or some exchanges trying to build traffic?

inverter
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by inverter » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:22 pm

Wow. Your post shows a serious lack of understanding. Blockchain is very different from crypto is very different from ethereum, bitcoin, etc. Blockchain is more like a database, crypto is a use, and bitcoin is a specific instance of use. JP Morgan using their own stable coin, etc. says nothing but the underline technology could be interesting.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jb1 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:24 pm

I have had money in, why did you just decide to do it now?

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whodidntante
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by whodidntante » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:26 pm

I might actually use cryptocurrency some day, but I have no interest in owning it just because the value might go up because the value might also go down. Go ahead and speculate. It might work out. Place a nice, big bet so you can at least get rich if it does.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by z3r0c00l » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:28 pm

Not interested. Could work, but I prefer lotto tickets if I want to gamble. They are honest about the odds and I trust them to pay me if I win.

The pointlessness and bubble-like nature of the crypto craze isn't actually my first concern, however. Instead, I am most wary of the fact that apparently, crypto just gets stolen all the time. It is much easier to steal than to mine at this point, and there are plenty of countries and groups willing to do it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/crime-s ... year-.html

And if it isn't stolen, you might lose it all if the owner of the company dies without sharing the password.
https://www.wired.com/story/crypto-exch ... -only-key/

97trophy
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by 97trophy » Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:49 pm

I bought both BTC & ETH on the breakouts. No opinion, just trend following.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HawkeyePierce » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:32 pm

Cryptocurrency prices are *massively* manipulated. The ongoing Tether scam is used to pump-and-dump in the hope of duping unsuspecting retail investors.

For those not familiar with it, Tether is a service that claims to provide a fiat-backed "stablecoin" where 1 coin is always worth 1 US dollar (or whatever real currency they pick). The largest is the USDT coin (US dollar Tethers). Tether claims they have 100% reserve but has never proven it and fired their auditor. Crypto traders use it to hold pseudodollars while skirting US law.

Since Tether has never offered proof of their reserves, they can mine more USDT whenever they want. The largest exchange using Tether is Bitfinex—they share common owners. Bitfinex takes newly-mined Tethers and lets people buy USDT using Bitcoin or Ethereum. At that point Tether has exchanged a worthless USDT coin for BTC or ETH and also driven up the price.

Bitfinex lost their banking licenses long ago. There are tons of stories on Twitter and Reddit of people trying to redeem their USDT tokens for real dollars and finding that withdrawals are impossible. There's no reason to believe they have real USD in a bank account to back USDT, but as long as crypto prices kept climbing they were able to pull off their scam because people were keeping their crypto and didn't want fiat currency.

These exchanges also allow market manipulation tactics like tape painting and wash trading. Some will literally let you fill your own orders. Add all this up and you have a recipe for huge price manipulation. Bitfinex and Tether drive up the price, watch unsuspecting investors pile in as they see another run starting, then dump their BTC and ETH.

(There's another aspect of this scam that enables wide-scale money laundering since these exchanges don't have any KYC policies or anti-money laundering controls, but that's a whole other topic)

https://hackernoon.com/the-curious-tale ... 0031eead87

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Spinola
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Spinola » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:47 pm

Unregulated, highly speculative, easily manipulated, little or no accountability, beloved of drug cartels and money launderers, virtual "coins" backed by nothing, supported by no monetary authority or central bank: what's not to love? :oops:

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:54 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.

But after some research I felt it was worth putting in 0.5% of my net worth in it. Money which I would not lose sleep over even if it all went crashing down to zero.
The Nisiprius question. Having lost that 0.5% would you rebalance again and buy another 0.5%?

There have been pretty good signs of cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger.
1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins.
2) Institutional investors and venture capital money have been pouring into cryptocurrency or blockchain startups. The biggest one I read about was GIC (of Singapore) investing in Coinbase.
3) Signs of increasing adoption. Where I come from, crypto is increasingly accepted as a form of payment. So its not like it is purely an investment. I have paid for stuff in crypto too.
I'd love to know where this is? Some place with currency controls - restrictions on buying & selling foreign exchange?
4) Bubble has clearly popped. Entry at this stage would be investing in a contrarian style.

So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?
Having seen someone lose a fortune of real money in crypto -- no. A life changing amount of money. It's a market full of fraud.

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ankonaman
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by ankonaman » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:18 am

Spinola wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:47 pm
Unregulated, highly speculative, easily manipulated, little or no accountability, beloved of drug cartels and money launderers, virtual "coins" backed by nothing, supported by no monetary authority or central bank: what's not to love? :oops:
This ^^^ pretty much sums it up.

FireProof
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by FireProof » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:21 am

Once I can find a buyer for my beanie babies, all the proceeds are going into crypto.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by harvestbook » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:52 am

An interesting science fiction idea backed by nothing. I have never encountered a single service or piece of merchandise i could buy with it, and it doesn't hold a stable expected value, and it won't survive a grid outage, so it fails on every argument.

I bought $100 worth just to see how it "worked." It doesn't.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jebmke » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 am

allocating a tiny portion of my portfolio to anything isn't going to move the needle
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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newtothiswhat
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by newtothiswhat » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:26 am

inverter wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:22 pm
Wow. Your post shows a serious lack of understanding. Blockchain is very different from crypto is very different from ethereum, bitcoin, etc. Blockchain is more like a database, crypto is a use, and bitcoin is a specific instance of use. JP Morgan using their own stable coin, etc. says nothing but the underline technology could be interesting.
Care to explain why JP Morgan using their own stable coin means nothing? Isn't that a huge indicator of their view on the digital currency market?
jb1 wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:24 pm
I have had money in, why did you just decide to do it now?
Cause I missed the boat previously? So just getting in now. Besides it's a small sum so not like I did 100 hours of research to invest. What about you? What made a boglehead like you decide to jump in then?
Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:54 am
The Nisiprius question. Having lost that 0.5% would you rebalance again and buy another 0.5%?
Nope I would not. That's all I am going to risk.
I'd love to know where this is? Some place with currency controls - restrictions on buying & selling foreign exchange?
Nope, no restrictions at all on my end. Just to clarify, I buy many virtual goods and pay in crypto. It's certainly more expensive than paying in cash. I should clarify, it is not my location that has seen adoption. It is the online marketplaces where I participate in where I have seen crypto adoption.
Having seen someone lose a fortune of real money in crypto -- no. A life changing amount of money. It's a market full of fraud.
Thanks for the advice. I appreciate it. I am only putting in 0.5% and that's all. I am no expert in managing money so would not go beyond that.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by samsoes » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:22 am

Donate to a homeless shelter the money you want to put into crypto.
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RickBoglehead
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by RickBoglehead » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:23 am

ankonaman wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:18 am
Spinola wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:47 pm
Unregulated, highly speculative, easily manipulated, little or no accountability, beloved of drug cartels and money launderers, virtual "coins" backed by nothing, supported by no monetary authority or central bank: what's not to love? :oops:
This ^^^ pretty much sums it up.
I wouldn't put a dime. To me, those that invest in this type of stuff end up with the rewards they deserve.

I've never bought a virtual good in my life, and suspect that I will go to my grave without having done so.
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B. Wellington
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by B. Wellington » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:42 am

jebmke wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 am
allocating a tiny portion of my portfolio to anything isn't going to move the needle
+1 This is a very valid point for those looking to "invest" in Crypto. What % of your total portfolio are you willing to risk in search of what % of out-performance?

A 1%-5% stake probably wouldn't "move the needle" enough for us given the risk taken. :confused

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by sperry8 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:43 am

When I hear of an investment that has no barrier to entry.. that is, anyone in any country can put a small # of dollars in... and they can get rich beyond their wildest dreams (as some did when it went up to $19k if they were lucky enough to sell), then I run away. There is no such thing as a get rich quick scheme. So something is amiss. I steer clear of things like this. Here you are OP with almost no knowledge expecting (hoping) to get rich. I'm not knocking your knowledge, I have even less I'm sure. My point is simply - people are in it solely to get rich, and to get rich quick. As someone else stated above, there is no utility for these coins today. So the only "use" people have for them is speculation. It's just too good to be true. And those sorts of "investments" scare me. I shall not invest in them
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Psyayeayeduck
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:54 am

Nope.

(Apparently I need a minimum of 5 characters to post or my original answer would have been "No." [without quotations])

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jb1 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:59 am

To answer your quote, I’ve been in since 2017, gambled, and came out lucky to make 20k.

Since everything died down I decided to put around $500 back in a coin. We’ll see what happens. I’m 28, I can afford the risk right now.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:05 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
There have been pretty good signs of blockchain / cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger.
1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins.
How is Facebook and JP Morgan creating their own coin going to make you money invested in some other coin?

That's like saying I'm going to buy Ford stock and hope it goes up in value, because I hear a whole bunch of other really successful companies are going to start making cars and trucks (which will compete with Ford!)
The J stands for Jay

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newtothiswhat
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by newtothiswhat » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:48 am

z3r0c00l wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:28 pm
Not interested. Could work, but I prefer lotto tickets if I want to gamble. They are honest about the odds and I trust them to pay me if I win.

The pointlessness and bubble-like nature of the crypto craze isn't actually my first concern, however. Instead, I am most wary of the fact that apparently, crypto just gets stolen all the time. It is much easier to steal than to mine at this point, and there are plenty of countries and groups willing to do it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/crime-s ... year-.html

And if it isn't stolen, you might lose it all if the owner of the company dies without sharing the password.
https://www.wired.com/story/crypto-exch ... -only-key/
Thanks for highlighting this, yes cryptocurrency security is very important. Ignore it at your own peril.
jb1 wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:59 am
To answer your quote, I’ve been in since 2017, gambled, and came out lucky to make 20k.

Since everything died down I decided to put around $500 back in a coin. We’ll see what happens. I’m 28, I can afford the risk right now.
Good on you mate! Happy it worked out for you and hope it works for you this round again. For me, it seems like everyone knows of someone who made money but none of those I know actually made anything LOL. Good to hear you made it out with something.
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:05 am

How is Facebook and JP Morgan creating their own coin going to make you money invested in some other coin?

That's like saying I'm going to buy Ford stock and hope it goes up in value, because I hear a whole bunch of other really successful companies are going to start making cars and trucks (which will compete with Ford!)
The same way a rising tide lifts all boats? Like how interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum led all crypto on an upward trajectory? :sharebeer
jebmke wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 am
allocating a tiny portion of my portfolio to anything isn't going to move the needle
The point wasn't to move the needle! It was to just gain exposure to an asset class I find interesting. I wouldn't be able to sleep if it moved the nedle in my portfolio. Look how volatile crypto is.
Last edited by newtothiswhat on Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by jb1 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:52 am

Biggest regret is I didnt buy more

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by barnaclebob » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:56 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:26 am
inverter wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:22 pm
Wow. Your post shows a serious lack of understanding. Blockchain is very different from crypto is very different from ethereum, bitcoin, etc. Blockchain is more like a database, crypto is a use, and bitcoin is a specific instance of use. JP Morgan using their own stable coin, etc. says nothing but the underline technology could be interesting.
Care to explain why JP Morgan using their own stable coin means nothing? Isn't that a huge indicator of their view on the digital currency market?
Did it mean anything for the value of apps in general when JP Morgan created an app for their company?
Last edited by barnaclebob on Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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greg24
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by greg24 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:02 am

Which of the 1600+ crypto currencies are you going to invest in?

What other currencies do you invest in?

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by z3r0c00l » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:55 pm

newtothiswhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:48 am
z3r0c00l wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:28 pm
It is much easier to steal than to mine at this point, and there are plenty of countries and groups willing to do it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/crime-s ... year-.html

And if it isn't stolen, you might lose it all if the owner of the company dies without sharing the password.
https://www.wired.com/story/crypto-exch ... -only-key/
Thanks for highlighting this, yes cryptocurrency security is very important. Ignore it at your own peril.
I think my point here is that cryptocurrency security doesn't exist, not that it sometimes fails.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by H-Town » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:05 pm

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.
I do not think crypto as rat poison. I think it as trash.

I'd spend that money on vacation.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Trader Joe » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:06 pm

I would not invest in cryptocurrency.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:44 pm

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.

But after some research I felt it was worth putting in 0.5% of my net worth in it. Money which I would not lose sleep over even if it all went crashing down to zero.

There have been pretty good signs of blockchain / cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger.
1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins.
2) Institutional investors and venture capital money have been pouring into cryptocurrency or blockchain startups. The biggest one I read about was GIC (of Singapore) investing in Coinbase.
3) Signs of increasing adoption. Where I come from, crypto is increasingly accepted as a form of payment. So its not like it is purely an investment. I have paid for stuff in crypto too.
4) Bubble has clearly popped. Entry at this stage would be investing in a contrarian style.

So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?

Aren't cryptocurrencies still down about 75%? Bitcoin hit a high of approximately 20k and is sitting at 5k. Im not sure I would say that the bulls are back yet.

OneBreeze
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by OneBreeze » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:12 pm

Your 1 - 3 suggests adoption of block chain or other crypto currencies that you have not invested in. Adoption of block chain technologies or even crypto currencies in general does not make the currencies more valuable. Fiat currency has great adoption. That does not mean its value is going to sky rocket.

4 is clearly false since you’re reacting to a bull run.

That being said you can make a lot of money in crypto if you get lucky or correctly predict the actions of the other buyers and sellers. It’s a pure gamble and that’s great if you’re into that.


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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Elric » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:30 pm

newtothiswhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:26 am
Care to explain why JP Morgan using their own stable coin means nothing? Isn't that a huge indicator of their view on the digital currency market?
It means they want to make money and they think there's a market. But in the longer run, what does that mean for other crypto-currencies? Does the value of the U.S. dollar drive the value of the Ukrainian hryvnia?
newtothiswhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:26 am
Besides it's a small sum so not like I did 100 hours of research to invest.
A number of folks on this forum have "play money" investments. While crypto isn't my current cup of tea, I don't see anything wrong with gambling a small amount in it.

On a different note, in the long haul, I suspect many uses will be found for blockchain technology. Whether or not any of the current crypto-currencies hold long-term value is far more speculative. Bitcoin folks say they don't intend for it to be a commonly used currency for routine purchases, and the bitcoin technical approach can't scale up to handle it anyway. As a way to store value, it's pretty terrible because it's so volatile. It seems a speculative investment heavily dependent on Greater Fool Theory. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gr ... theory.asp Nothing wrong with "play money" level investments of this type.
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Nappyloxs » Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:46 pm

I missed out on Bitcoin back when it was less than $40 because I was skeptical and thought it would get shutdown. Then a year or two later, I read a story of an arrest of a major drug dealer who was using bitcoin and dark web making $10s of millions a year. That made me realize the gov’t is actually taking crypto serious. I missed out again when bitcoin was under $500 because I was more interested in stock and thought it was a fad.

Whether people I know or just overheard conversations of strangers, I have heard plenty of people talk about crypto over past year. Companies are taking crypto seriously now. Not only are a few major online retailers accepting crytpo, but even b&m are now. Also, I have read high end auto manufacturers are developing their own versions of it (for drive thrus).

In my opinion, crypto is real and here to stay. I actually think it will be the future in a way. You can already swipe cards or phones to pay. Identify and credit card theft is probably at all time high. Some of the mechanisms in crypto are great protections against fraud. However, there are just too many crypto exchanges right now, so one needs to choice very wisely.

I don’t mean to offend anyone, but many naysayers probably don’t have technological knowledge to accept crypto as legitimate currency. Looking at it from investing standpoint, it is essentially an emerging market. (Caveat I am no investment pro and don’t mean to refer to technical terms). One always wants to buy low and be the among the first in a stock before it blows up. Crypto still has potential because it is now legitimate but unknown. Just like Amazon when it was but an online bookstore.

I don’t own any crypto at the moment, but only because I haven’t been investing like I should. OP you know more than me at the moment, but the only crypto I would invest in is bitcoin. It is the only one I regularly see accepted online or in stores, plus it is finite. I am sure there are other companies out there who maybe be better, but if I am investing I am buying the godfather of crypto, the one I see on legit websites, and the ones who might be bought by legit companies for IT reasons.

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Spinola
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Spinola » Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:47 pm

many naysayers probably don’t have technological knowledge to accept crypto as legitimate currency.
I work in IT... and I wouldn't touch it with a 1000 foot Cat 5 cable. Blockchain technology may have a future, but highly volatile vaporware-like pseudo-currency, backed by nothing, not so much. And for the record, it isn't a legitimate currency. The Euro, the US Dollar, the Chinese Yuan, are currencies, issued by central banks or monetary authorities. Crypto-currencies are something else.

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happyisland
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by happyisland » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:25 am

Nappyloxs wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:46 pm
...the only crypto I would invest in is bitcoin. It is the only one I regularly see accepted online or in stores, plus it is finite...
I'm very curious about this. Have you ever seen bitcoin accepted in a brick and mortar store? If so, what store?

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Strayshot » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:42 am

Me personally, I’m getting back into tulips instead of crypto. It has been a few centuries of a lull, but I really feel like the tulip bulls are back and have seen prices going up a couple cents here and there so there is definitely some movement. In fact, I saw a neighbor plant some fresh bulbs just yesterday which is more than enough of a cue to get back in.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Tycoon » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:51 am

Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Of course not. That would be silly.
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:54 am

No. If I wanted to put money in something other than S&P or Total Stock Market, I would put it in healthcare etf, small cap index fund or growth index fund.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:58 am

Strayshot wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:42 am
Me personally, I’m getting back into tulips instead of crypto. It has been a few centuries of a lull, but I really feel like the tulip bulls are back and have seen prices going up a couple cents here and there so there is definitely some movement. In fact, I saw a neighbor plant some fresh bulbs just yesterday which is more than enough of a cue to get back in.
I have found tulips to be a bad investment. They bloom for one year and don’t come up the next year. Chipmunks (I think) dig up the bulbs and eat them.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:08 am

jebmke wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 am
allocating a tiny portion of my portfolio to anything isn't going to move the needle
$100 of BTC at the low hit somewhere over $250M. Just saying :greedy .

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by Strayshot » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:10 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:58 am
Strayshot wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:42 am
Me personally, I’m getting back into tulips instead of crypto. It has been a few centuries of a lull, but I really feel like the tulip bulls are back and have seen prices going up a couple cents here and there so there is definitely some movement. In fact, I saw a neighbor plant some fresh bulbs just yesterday which is more than enough of a cue to get back in.
I have found tulips to be a bad investment. They bloom for one year and don’t come up the next year. Chipmunks (I think) dig up the bulbs and eat them.
Ah, you haven’t been keeping up on the technology! There is a new bioengineered tulip that uses a technology called tulipchain, which guarantees that the tulip bulb will clone and come up year after year so that you will never lose the initial value of your tulip purchase. In addition, each year the flower modifies its coloring to become even more complex and beautiful. I suggest buying in now before the market really skyrockets. With these new tulips, the seeds take longer and longer to grow over each tulip generation which makes the next tulip batch harder to acquire, so I feel like tulip mining will be really profitable in the beginning and those that get in early have the most to gain.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:42 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.
Well, in essence that is an apt comparison as it's difficult to invest in Rat Poison these days since the main rat poison products are owned by private or government companies.

Bell Laboratories, Inc. (private company) makes Contrac Blox
Liphatec, Inc. (part of the private De Sangosse SAS) makes Blue Max
Syngenta (part of ChemChina owned by the Chinese Central Government) makes TalonG
Bell Laboratories, Inc. (private company) makes Fastrac Blox
newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?
As index fund investors - or even for those who own individual stocks as well - we are all invested in the companies that make the products required to operate the blockchain (hardware, network, chips, software, etc...).

Speculation vs. investing typically leads to the same ending. Eventually you learn that the stove top will burn you if you touch it with your bare hands. The dot.com craze burned the fingers and hands of many 20 years ago. Chasing the price and charts of any crypto currency seems to be pure speculation of a non-producing asset. Best of luck with your speculation.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:10 am

March 22nd, 2019: Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
Ninety-five percent of spot bitcoin trading volume is faked by unregulated exchanges, according to a study from Bitwise this week.
In the US stock market before 1934, "bulls" did not mean people who were optimistic about stock prices rising, it meant syndicates of market manipulators who were making prices rise. The same thing is likely true today in the unregulated crypto markets, and is unlikely to change until there is a government regulator of cryptocurrency--which I rather assume will be "never" since it is sort of is contrary to the whole point.

At this point, the association of cryptocurrency with fraud, manipulation, shenanigans, and various forms of illicit activity is obvious and persistent. The Winklevoss twins and others have been trying since 2016 to get a cryptocurrency ETF past US regulators and they haven't succeeded yet, because of concerns about the honesty, legitimacy, and financial strength of crypto markets.

Fans like to play a shell game in which all problems are attributed to old, outmoded cryptocurrencies and are assumed not to apply to new kinds, but the problems continue. Ethereum is sometimes promoted as one of the most legitimate cryptocurrencies, yet QuadrigaCX, once one of the largest and most reputable exchanges, lost--or stole--permanently made inaccessible--$150 million worth of investors' ether. So you have the abiding problem: even if you believe that some particular cryptocurrency, say Ethereum, is free from shenanigans, the easy roads for a retail investor to get to it is beset by highwaymen.

Some people are going to make a fortune in crypto. I am not going to be one of them.
Last edited by nisiprius on Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:30 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by queso » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:20 am

TomCat96 wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:44 pm
newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
I know this forum discourages investing in crypto and views it as rat poison.

But after some research I felt it was worth putting in 0.5% of my net worth in it. Money which I would not lose sleep over even if it all went crashing down to zero.

There have been pretty good signs of blockchain / cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger.
1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins.
2) Institutional investors and venture capital money have been pouring into cryptocurrency or blockchain startups. The biggest one I read about was GIC (of Singapore) investing in Coinbase.
3) Signs of increasing adoption. Where I come from, crypto is increasingly accepted as a form of payment. So its not like it is purely an investment. I have paid for stuff in crypto too.
4) Bubble has clearly popped. Entry at this stage would be investing in a contrarian style.

So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?

Aren't cryptocurrencies still down about 75%? Bitcoin hit a high of approximately 20k and is sitting at 5k. Im not sure I would say that the bulls are back yet.
This. I still hold several currencies, but cashed out of most of my fake internet money back when BTC was around 16k. What makes you think it is coming back? My holdings have basically done nothing since late last year and I don't see any logical reason why they would increase substantially from where they are now. In fact, I tend to think they are more likely to plummet to pre-2017 levels than they are to undergo a meteoric rise again.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by midareff » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:22 am

Are you kidding?

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by DetroitRick » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:55 am

As an investor, no. As a future user, probably. I find both the underlying technology and the basic concept fascinating. Think of the potential benefit to people in countries with strict currency controls and/or in chaotic economic environments.

I can envision using crypto currency for transactions myself too, to a degree. Someday. But, after all, I don't do foreign currency trading either, and I have a basic understanding of that medium. Then, with crypto, you have to add in the more extreme market manipulation, at least for now. So, I'm on the sidelines and will just watch and learn as the evolution continues.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by HawkeyePierce » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:01 am

Note that retailers accepting Bitcoin aren't actually taking possession of Bitcoin in the majority of cases. They're using services like Bitpay or Coinbase Commerce to accept Bitcoin from customers but immediately convert it to regular currency (dollars, euros, whatever).

It's no different than a merchant listing prices in multiple (traditional) currencies. Joe's Bobbleheads Online isn't taking possession of euros and pounds and yen, he's just using a merchant account that lets his customers pay in their currency but converting all of that into his currency so he only has to handle dollars.

I wouldn't necessarily call that "bullish on Bitcoin" anymore than a merchant who accepts other foreign currencies is bullish on euros. Adding a new payment gateway is pretty trivial with most eCommerce platforms.

(I build online payment systems for a living)
Last edited by HawkeyePierce on Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by MindBogler » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:03 am

newtothiswhat wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:16 pm
So would you personally allocate a tiny portion of your funds to crypto?
Absolutely not. Blockchain probably has a number of future uses, but these systems have few of the attributes that might make them suitable as currencies. They are a pure speculation play, in my opinion.

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Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Post by lostdog » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:09 am

Nope. For now, cash and VTWAX. I'll add bonds later in life.

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