That's enough for me in 2019

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

Made some trades:
1. Covered my 5-year Treasury short that was hedging investment grade bond duration (initiated when the 5-year was at 2.24%, now 2.41%). The Treasury curve is no longer significantly inverted. The hedge gained 0.8% on $460K notional exposure.
2. Bought a 5% position in silver that I intend to keep for a while. It's part of figuring out what to do with my taxable cash. I like precious metals because they don't generate any taxable income during my peak earning years. I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
3. Added 5% to my long term bond position (a short term trade).

New allocation:
10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
20% long term bonds
-20% US equities
70% cash and intermediate term investment grade bonds
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:09 pm Edit: Put on the short quite recently, QQQ at 185.
Why not use the inverse QQQ ETF ?
Do you buy physical silver or the ETF?
james22
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by james22 »

market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pmI like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
What's your take on CCFs? Vanguard's new offering?
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do at 0% real for the rest of my life). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
smitcat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by smitcat »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:54 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Like OMY habits...
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:58 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:54 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Like OMY habits...
For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
marcopolo
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by marcopolo »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
I am not sure I follow why that would be the case. Doesn't that depend on expenses?
Sure, someone with $5M, and spending $50k/yr probably does not need to worry about SWRs

But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
smitcat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by smitcat »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:01 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:58 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:54 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm

This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Like OMY habits...
For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
So its not about monsters under the bed? - IMO the answer lies with ourselves not with a projection of alternative reasons.
smitcat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by smitcat »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
I am not sure I follow why that would be the case. Doesn't that depend on expenses?
Sure, someone with $5M, and spending $50k/yr probably does not need to worry about SWRs

But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?

"But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?"
If you are seeking opinions then I say No.
The person with $200K expenses has many options to reduce their expenses and prop up unforeseen SWR issues.
The person with $40K per year expenses has fewer choices to deal with unforeseen SWR issues.
marcopolo
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by marcopolo »

smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:09 am
marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual.
This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
I am not sure I follow why that would be the case. Doesn't that depend on expenses?
Sure, someone with $5M, and spending $50k/yr probably does not need to worry about SWRs

But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?

"But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?"
If you are seeking opinions then I say No.
The person with $200K expenses has many options to reduce their expenses and prop up unforeseen SWR issues.
The person with $40K per year expenses has fewer choices to deal with unforeseen SWR issues.
I agree with that.
I was just addressing the comment about there not being as much discussion about SWRs if people had that kind of money.

The guy with $5M, doesn't say "Ok. I want to have a $200k/yr lifestyle, because that is what have been working and planning to achieve, but since i can cut back my lifestyle, i don't have to worry about this SWRs stuff."

While his risk of "failure" is much lower, it seems to me he is likely to be just as interested in figuring out how to maintain his standard of living over the long run as the guy living on $40k/yr.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:06 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:01 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:58 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:54 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Like OMY habits...
For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
So its not about monsters under the bed? - IMO the answer lies with ourselves not with a projection of alternative reasons.
Not in my case. I have accepted I have enough in the past year, a surprisingly hard thing to do. I have a spreadsheet that lays out my expenses month by month from now to my presumed end of life. Those expenses can be covered by my portfolio with a 0% real return and a surplus remaining.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
smitcat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by smitcat »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:21 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:06 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:01 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:58 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:54 am

There is a reason you read stories about people with modest income dying and leaving millions, they build habits early in life that they can never break free of. I admit almost every time I read this forum I walk away wondering if I have enough (which I do). I am reasonably sure most here still check under their beds nightly for monsters.
Like OMY habits...
For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
So its not about monsters under the bed? - IMO the answer lies with ourselves not with a projection of alternative reasons.
Not in my case. I have accepted I have enough in the past year, a surprisingly hard thing to do. I have a spreadsheet that lays out my expenses month by month from now to my presumed end of life. Those expenses can be covered by my portfolio with a 0% real return and a surplus remaining.
"Not in my case." ...and its not with most others as well.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:14 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:09 am
marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm

This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old). The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
I am not sure I follow why that would be the case. Doesn't that depend on expenses?
Sure, someone with $5M, and spending $50k/yr probably does not need to worry about SWRs

But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?

"But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?"
If you are seeking opinions then I say No.
The person with $200K expenses has many options to reduce their expenses and prop up unforeseen SWR issues.
The person with $40K per year expenses has fewer choices to deal with unforeseen SWR issues.
I agree with that.
I was just addressing the comment about there not being as much discussion about SWRs if people had that kind of money.

The guy with $5M, doesn't say "Ok. I want to have a $200k/yr lifestyle, because that is what have been working and planning to achieve, but since i can cut back my lifestyle, i don't have to worry about this SWRs stuff."

While his risk of "failure" is much lower, it seems to me he is likely to be just as interested in figuring out how to maintain his standard of living over the long run as the guy living on $40k/yr.
I would guess the tendency of the $5M guy is to want to increase his standard of living taking advantage of what he feels he has achieved. I would doubt just sleeping late and working in the garden would be what he pictures when he pictures retirement. Grander plans take grander bank accounts.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:24 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:21 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:06 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:01 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:58 am

Like OMY habits...
For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
So its not about monsters under the bed? - IMO the answer lies with ourselves not with a projection of alternative reasons.
Not in my case. I have accepted I have enough in the past year, a surprisingly hard thing to do. I have a spreadsheet that lays out my expenses month by month from now to my presumed end of life. Those expenses can be covered by my portfolio with a 0% real return and a surplus remaining.
"Not in my case." ...and its not with most others as well.
I think personal experience shapes us all. From my observations those who experienced the Great Depression never stopped looking for the monster of scarcity no matter how much they had. I am sure for many Black Monday, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession have left their imprints on many here and on their views about investing and safety.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
smitcat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by smitcat »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:29 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:24 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:21 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:06 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:01 am

For me OMYs are merely a result of the powerful financial incentive I receive from them and the lack of any compelling driver for retiring.
So its not about monsters under the bed? - IMO the answer lies with ourselves not with a projection of alternative reasons.
Not in my case. I have accepted I have enough in the past year, a surprisingly hard thing to do. I have a spreadsheet that lays out my expenses month by month from now to my presumed end of life. Those expenses can be covered by my portfolio with a 0% real return and a surplus remaining.
"Not in my case." ...and its not with most others as well.
I think personal experience shapes us all. From my observations those who experienced the Great Depression never stopped looking for the monster of scarcity no matter how much they had. I am sure for many Black Monday, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession have left their imprints on many here and on their views about investing and safety.
Those that do not face their fears are ultimately trapped by their fears.
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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:37 am
market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:09 pm Edit: Put on the short quite recently, QQQ at 185.
Why not use the inverse QQQ ETF ?
Do you buy physical silver or the ETF?
Inverse QQQ has the same long term tracking issues as leveraged ETFs, since exposure is reset daily.

For silver, I use SLV. Not a huge fan of the 0.5% expense ratio, but better than finding a place to store 343 pounds of silver, worrying about counterfeits, and dealing with transaction costs. Also, I really don't understand the relationship the prices of coins and spot silver. The markup is currently around 15%.
Last edited by market timer on Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

james22 wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:25 am
market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pmI like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
What's your take on CCFs? Vanguard's new offering?
I've never seen a CCF I've liked. The fundamental problem with CCFs is that they have to roll contracts regularly (typically monthly), so if the fund has any size, there are large market impact costs. I'm also concerned the fund managers might not have the clients' best interests in mind in how they roll and how they select counterparties (e.g., the inverse VIX ETF fiasco last year). Expense ratios are also usually rather high.

Regarding the Vanguard fund, I've only seen reports about the launch in June. Haven't seen any specifics, other than it will be actively managed, have a $50K minimum balance, and charge 0.2% ER. Too soon to say whether it looks good.
james22
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by james22 »

Thanks, MT.

But what's too soon to know? We know the (rather low) ER.

Do you doubt Vanguard's interests? Or their ability to minimize roll costs?
DonIce
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by DonIce »

james22 wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:23 pm Thanks, MT.

But what's too soon to know? We know the (rather low) ER.

Do you doubt Vanguard's interests? Or their ability to minimize roll costs?
What makes the Vanguard fund better than existing commodity ETFs like BCI? Besides 5 basis points.
novemberrain
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by novemberrain »

DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M, and people falling much below these numbers are seen as "barely scraping by".
That is a pretty accurate description.
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm This board is very "bullish" on stocks compared to the general population. It routinely advises people that have never been in the market to get in with fairly high allocations to stocks (40-80% are typical recommendations here). And it does this regardless of current economic conditions, market valuations, etc, based on the belief that market timing is not possible/productive. Bogleheads are "perma-bulls", by definition.

At the same time, the board is very conservative in terms of the amounts that it thinks people need to have saved (>30x worst case expenses by retirement), the amount of house that people can afford (<2 years income), future expected return rates people should plan around (~4%), and future employability (permanent loss of work by 50 years old).
That is a pretty accurate description as well. However, this is not necessarily the way one might get wealthy (By wealthy I mean $20M or $50M). I have not seen any postings on this forum with anyone in that wealth range. Although I am sure there are people in that range who are members here. If there were an online forum where people with $20-$50M were the average poster, that forum would look very different from this forum I would guess. They would be suggesting to lever up and start businesses maybe. They might use the S&P index fund as a "safe" investment LOL. Kind of like how this forum treats CDs. By that benchmark, this forum is not perma-bulls. This forum is more the save-your-pennies-from-salary crowd mostly (WIth some small side investments). So the definition of "perma-bull" and "risky" is all relative.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by jbranx »

{I deleted an off-topic post. Moderator Jbranx}
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

novemberrain wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:48 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M
That is a pretty accurate description.
Most people here don't say what their salary or net worth is as far as I can tell. What's the basis for your estimate. I think it's much lower, but I don't know either. :?
EnjoyIt
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by EnjoyIt »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:40 pm
novemberrain wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:48 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M
That is a pretty accurate description.
Most people here don't say what their salary or net worth is as far as I can tell. What's the basis for your estimate. I think it's much lower, but I don't know either. :?
I saw a survey floating around here a few years back when surveys were allowed. for what it is worth which isn't much, the average if I can remember was lower than $5 million.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
bhsince87
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by bhsince87 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:49 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:40 pm
novemberrain wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:48 pm
DonIce wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:03 pm The average 30-something poster on here seems to have an income of ~$500k and the average 60-something poster here seems to have a net worth of over $5M
That is a pretty accurate description.
Most people here don't say what their salary or net worth is as far as I can tell. What's the basis for your estimate. I think it's much lower, but I don't know either. :?
I saw a survey floating around here a few years back when surveys were allowed. for what it is worth which isn't much, the average if I can remember was lower than $5 million.
2015 report, which is I believe the last one.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1649182824
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace." Samuel Adams
letsgobobby
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by letsgobobby »

Deleted
Last edited by letsgobobby on Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
TomCat96
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TomCat96 »

letsgobobby wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:44 pm
market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pm Made some trades:
1. Covered my 5-year Treasury short that was hedging investment grade bond duration (initiated when the 5-year was at 2.24%, now 2.41%). The Treasury curve is no longer significantly inverted. The hedge gained 0.8% on $460K notional exposure.
2. Bought a 5% position in silver that I intend to keep for a while. It's part of figuring out what to do with my taxable cash. I like precious metals because they don't generate any taxable income during my peak earning years. I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
3. Added 5% to my long term bond position (a short term trade).

New allocation:
10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
20% long term bonds
-20% US equities
70% cash and intermediate term investment grade bonds
Do you seriously expect to outperform on a risk adjusted basis, after taking into account taxes, trading costs, and your time?

Your original thread was highly instructive for aspiring market timers but this thread suggests you’ve learned nothing from your misadventure.
This is so interesting because this is the final result of market timers.

As a former market timer, it starts when you get an inkling of an idea. CAPE is too high. Brexit is too much. The mood isn't right.
When I would market time by selling, more often than not, I would be correct, and the market would indeed drop.

The problem was getting back in. While I could predict the market dropping due to the massive amount of analysis and investigation, I could not predict by how much or when. Suppose the market would drop by 2%. ok fine. The nightmare scenario would occur when the market would jump, which it's prone to doing, even in the middle of a correction. The market would go up 3, 5% in a week. Maybe it would even climb 7% over the next two weeks.

Now what?

That is the absolute disaster scenario for market timers. Why? Because if you re-enter the market at this point, you know psychologically you will be behind your portfolio if you had just left it in there.

So what do you do? I know what I did. I doubled down. I left my money out, put it in bonds, waited for a correction.

But I can tell you from experience it is an awful feeling. The initial decision to market time in the first place was based on considerable analysis and thought. What about now, after the market has climbed?

It's not the same anymore. The winds of the market have changed, the situation may have changed. Some data may have improved. Determining the market is going to drop--market timing--is a matter of determining the totality of the circumstances, and the data.

If you make a single misstep, you end up flying by the seat of your pants. You know full well, as time wears on you're not committing the same degree of research, thought, and analysis into the market timing decisions as you did with your first decision to market time. You're just digesting data in the heat of the moment as it occurs. Your analysis starts toeing the line between half-baked analysis and gut shots. (even if your initial market time was reasonably well thought out)

The problem with market timing in that scenario is that at best, it becomes an issue of making plays at key moments and parking your money inefficiently in the interim, vs being in the market perpetually. The alpha you generate from your plays not only has to beat the market, it has to beat the market by enough to compensate for the time the money is inefficiently parked waiting for your event to occur.

This kind of allocation:

10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
20% long term bonds
-20% US equities
70% cash and intermediate term investment grade bonds

Look at that composition mix. This is not an investment strategy. Being 70% cash, intermediate term bonds is NOT a good allocation for growth unless you are 65+. That mix tells me, "Im waiting for the deluge."

Like I said, if you win, not only do you need to generate alpha, you need to generate enough alpha that you compensate for the time your money is parked in a "waiting for the crash" type portfolio. Good luck.
novemberrain
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by novemberrain »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:40 pm Most people here don't say what their salary or net worth is as far as I can tell. What's the basis for your estimate. I think it's much lower, but I don't know either. :?
I agree most people don't say that. But many people do leave hints in their posts as to how much their NW or income is. Yes, I could be completely wrong in my estimates.
KlangFool
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by KlangFool »

TomCat96 wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:19 pm
Like I said, if you win, not only do you need to generate alpha, you need to generate enough alpha that you compensate for the time your money is parked in a "waiting for the crash" type portfolio. Good luck.
TomCat96,

OP has 1.5 million now. At his saving rate (300K+?) per year, he does not need any growth to achieve his goal. Since we are not him, we cannot use his strategy. That is why in the first post of this topic, he said that he only need 2.5% growth of his 1.5 million to reach his goal.

KlangFool
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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

letsgobobby wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:44 pmDo you seriously expect to outperform on a risk adjusted basis, after taking into account taxes, trading costs, and your time?
My goal is not to outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis. I would characterize my strategy as the outcome of the following principles:
1. Work backwards from the endgame. Build an $80K/year liability matching portfolio by age 55-60. Invest the surplus for the kids.
2. Don't expose yourself to a big loss. You are too old now to recover and too close to your goal.
3. Keep a clear head. If you make a mistake, correct it immediately. Be aware of your mental state and your motivations.
4. Take risk when it is well-compensated.
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
6. Don't trade based on what you want to happen. If you find yourself desiring something to happen, reduce your position.
7. Be mindful of taxes.
8. Your portfolio is the result of a lifetime of work and saving. Make sure it is consistent with your values and beliefs.
Carol88888
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Carol88888 »

market timer wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pm Made some trades:
1. Covered my 5-year Treasury short that was hedging investment grade bond duration (initiated when the 5-year was at 2.24%, now 2.41%). The Treasury curve is no longer significantly inverted. The hedge gained 0.8% on $460K notional exposure.
2. Bought a 5% position in silver that I intend to keep for a while. It's part of figuring out what to do with my taxable cash. I like precious metals because they don't generate any taxable income during my peak earning years. I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
3. Added 5% to my long term bond position (a short term trade).

New allocation:
10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
20% long term bonds
-20% US equities
70% cash and intermediate term investment grade bonds
Wow - this sounds much too complicated for the likes of me. Maybe you can handle it and like the constant "action" but I would find this stressful in the extreme.

Also - are you intending to cash out of the investment grade bonds at some point to go into stocks? If so, there could be a problem because when stocks tank so, too, could the investment grade bonds. BBB grade bonds aren't that far from junk. Look at how intermediate corporate bonds performed in the great recession.

I'm in the short term corporate fund and I am thinking that might even be too much risk if we ever go through another great meltdown.
long_gamma
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by long_gamma »

Carol88888 wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:08 am
Also - are you intending to cash out of the investment grade bonds at some point to go into stocks? If so, there could be a problem because when stocks tank so, too, could the investment grade bonds. BBB grade bonds aren't that far from junk. Look at how intermediate corporate bonds performed in the great recession.

I'm in the short term corporate fund and I am thinking that might even be too much risk if we ever go through another great meltdown.

Reading comprehension much?

He has 70% in cash and intermediate corporate bonds. Even assuming 50:50 allocation, during great recession it went down by 7%. Hardly stressful scenario. Did you look at his other pieces of portfolio and think that he has too much risk in recession scenario? He has 20% long term bonds and 20% short Nasdaq. What do you think is going to outperform in recession scenario?

It's his portfolio and he has stated his reasons for holding it. It is not my cup of tea. Nothing in commandments says "Thou shall hold 3 fund portfolio"
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
long_gamma
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by long_gamma »

market timer wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it is a reaction function, then there should be turn of events in terms of price going down or weakening of economy numbers (though signs are there for economy). Where are you seeing signs?

Since you are pretty much all in with defensive assets, is it not wise buy some cheap call options as a hedge? All kinds of volatility is cheap out there.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

long_gamma wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:38 am
market timer wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it is a reaction function, then there should be turn of events in terms of price going down or weakening of economy numbers (though signs are there for economy). Where are you seeing signs?

Since you are pretty much all in with defensive assets, is it not wise buy some cheap call options as a hedge? All kinds of volatility is cheap out there.
If I were predicting a downturn, I'd buy put options and take on a larger short position. My current short position really just hedges short term compensation. In my view, this is a neutral position.
KlangFool
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by KlangFool »

market timer wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:33 am
long_gamma wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:38 am
market timer wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it is a reaction function, then there should be turn of events in terms of price going down or weakening of economy numbers (though signs are there for economy). Where are you seeing signs?

Since you are pretty much all in with defensive assets, is it not wise buy some cheap call options as a hedge? All kinds of volatility is cheap out there.
If I were predicting a downturn, I'd buy put options and take on a larger short position. My current short position really just hedges short term compensation. In my view, this is a neutral position.
market timer,

Would you mind updating us on your annual saving? I believe your annual expense is about 80K. That would give someone reading your post a better sense of how much risk you are taking.

KlangFool
columbia
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by columbia »

This is an interesting thread. :beer
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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:44 am
market timer wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:33 am
long_gamma wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:38 am
market timer wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it is a reaction function, then there should be turn of events in terms of price going down or weakening of economy numbers (though signs are there for economy). Where are you seeing signs?

Since you are pretty much all in with defensive assets, is it not wise buy some cheap call options as a hedge? All kinds of volatility is cheap out there.
If I were predicting a downturn, I'd buy put options and take on a larger short position. My current short position really just hedges short term compensation. In my view, this is a neutral position.
market timer,

Would you mind updating us on your annual saving? I believe your annual expense is about 80K. That would give someone reading your post a better sense of how much risk you are taking.

KlangFool
I save $200-250K/year currently and spend $70K. My wife also works and contributes to household expenses, but I'm not including her numbers.
KlangFool
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by KlangFool »

market timer wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:09 am
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:44 am
market timer wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:33 am
long_gamma wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:38 am
market timer wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics.
Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it is a reaction function, then there should be turn of events in terms of price going down or weakening of economy numbers (though signs are there for economy). Where are you seeing signs?

Since you are pretty much all in with defensive assets, is it not wise buy some cheap call options as a hedge? All kinds of volatility is cheap out there.
If I were predicting a downturn, I'd buy put options and take on a larger short position. My current short position really just hedges short term compensation. In my view, this is a neutral position.
market timer,

Would you mind updating us on your annual saving? I believe your annual expense is about 80K. That would give someone reading your post a better sense of how much risk you are taking.

KlangFool
I save $200-250K/year currently and spend $70K. My wife also works and contributes to household expenses, but I'm not including her numbers.
market timer,

Thanks. My family member lost 10 million in Telecom bust. But, he earned and saved about 7 figures every year. So, it was not a major disaster for him.

KlangFool
H-Town
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by H-Town »

PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
User avatar
TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
H-Town
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by H-Town »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8249
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
H-Town
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by H-Town »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8249
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
Yes, I will go ahead with the order. BTW, how did you know I ordered a pizza for lunch?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
michaeljc70
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by michaeljc70 »

H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
If you look at historical data, I would say it is >90% chance of coming out ahead over 10 years. I haven't been able to find it, but I wonder what the last month/year was when buying TSM/S&P 500/DOW would have been negative after 10 years. I believe it would have been in 1999 which straddled the dot com bubble and financial crisis.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:31 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am

I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
If you look at historical data, I would say it is >90% chance of coming out ahead over 10 years. I haven't been able to find it, but I wonder what the last month/year was when buying TSM/S&P 500/DOW would have been negative after 10 years. I believe it would have been in 1999 which straddled the dot com bubble and financial crisis.
I tend to use a 15 year time horizon for equities anyway.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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TheTimeLord
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by TheTimeLord »

H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:16 am
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am PSA: if you haven't got out yet, today is your chance to sell high... or not :mrgreen:

If you're already out, don't look... :twisted:
I have a buy order that will be executed at close. Should I cancel it???
It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
Bought some Fidelity® Blue Chip Growth Fund (FBGRX) yesterday, so far so good. It is my guilty pleasure investment.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
michaeljc70
Posts: 7086
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by michaeljc70 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:34 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:31 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm

It depends.. VIX or VTI? or your favorite pizza?
FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
If you look at historical data, I would say it is >90% chance of coming out ahead over 10 years. I haven't been able to find it, but I wonder what the last month/year was when buying TSM/S&P 500/DOW would have been negative after 10 years. I believe it would have been in 1999 which straddled the dot com bubble and financial crisis.
I tend to use a 15 year time horizon for equities anyway.
I use whatever time period it will be until I need the money. The other poster brought up 10 years. Frankly, if you only had a 60% chance of coming out ahead in stocks in a 10 year period, there would be a lot less people in stocks.
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:34 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:31 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm

FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
If you look at historical data, I would say it is >90% chance of coming out ahead over 10 years. I haven't been able to find it, but I wonder what the last month/year was when buying TSM/S&P 500/DOW would have been negative after 10 years. I believe it would have been in 1999 which straddled the dot com bubble and financial crisis.
I tend to use a 15 year time horizon for equities anyway.
I use whatever time period it will be until I need the money. The other poster brought up 10 years. Frankly, if you only had a 60% chance of coming out ahead in stocks in a 10 year period, there would be a lot less people in stocks.
It depends more on how badly you could come out. That's actually less over 10 years than over 30.
H-Town
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by H-Town »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:34 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:31 pm
H-Town wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:57 pm

FXAIX
My crystal ball predicts >60% chance of success if you hold this newly purchased FXAIX for 10 years. The longer you hold on to the stock, the better chance of success you'll have. It's a good odds. That's good enough for you?
If you look at historical data, I would say it is >90% chance of coming out ahead over 10 years. I haven't been able to find it, but I wonder what the last month/year was when buying TSM/S&P 500/DOW would have been negative after 10 years. I believe it would have been in 1999 which straddled the dot com bubble and financial crisis.
I tend to use a 15 year time horizon for equities anyway.
I use whatever time period it will be until I need the money. The other poster brought up 10 years. Frankly, if you only had a 60% chance of coming out ahead in stocks in a 10 year period, there would be a lot less people in stocks.
I guess my crystal ball has some critics... Look, nothing is perfect, so is my crystal ball.
ad2007
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:59 am

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by ad2007 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:25 am
marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:14 am
smitcat wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:09 am
marcopolo wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm if folks here are actually as rich as all that, I would expect to see much less discussion of safe withdrawal rates.
I am not sure I follow why that would be the case. Doesn't that depend on expenses?
Sure, someone with $5M, and spending $50k/yr probably does not need to worry about SWRs

But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?

"But, doesn't the person with $5M, and spending $200k/yr have the same SWR questions/concerns as someone with $1M, spending $40k/yr?"
If you are seeking opinions then I say No.
The person with $200K expenses has many options to reduce their expenses and prop up unforeseen SWR issues.
The person with $40K per year expenses has fewer choices to deal with unforeseen SWR issues.
I agree with that.
I was just addressing the comment about there not being as much discussion about SWRs if people had that kind of money.

The guy with $5M, doesn't say "Ok. I want to have a $200k/yr lifestyle, because that is what have been working and planning to achieve, but since i can cut back my lifestyle, i don't have to worry about this SWRs stuff."

While his risk of "failure" is much lower, it seems to me he is likely to be just as interested in figuring out how to maintain his standard of living over the long run as the guy living on $40k/yr.
I would guess the tendency of the $5M guy is to want to increase his standard of living taking advantage of what he feels he has achieved. I would doubt just sleeping late and working in the garden would be what he pictures when he pictures retirement. Grander plans take grander bank accounts.
No. I plan to get up early and work in the garden. My wife has grander plans and thus I need grander bank accounts.

Regarding monsters under the bed... I no longer check as I know that they are definitely there. I just want them to stay under the bed and not surface.

So, yes... a bunch of scaredy cats we are.
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