That's enough for me in 2019

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2015
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by 2015 »

RickBoglehead wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:12 am Don't know why a market timer would be on this forum since 2007.

Don't know the purpose of proclaiming to the forum that you went to cash.

Don't know what the mood on the forum has to do with where the market is going.

5 minutes I can't get back...
True. And as one who is always thinking always tries to think in terms of opportunity cost, I found this to be the most amusing post in the thread.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by 2015 »

RickBoglehead wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:12 am Don't know why a market timer would be on this forum since 2007.

Don't know the purpose of proclaiming to the forum that you went to cash.

Don't know what the mood on the forum has to do with where the market is going.

5 minutes I can't get back...
All true. And as one who is always thinking always tries to think in terms of opportunity cost, I found this to be the most amusing post in the thread.
Startled Cat
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Startled Cat »

There are definitely a lot of reasons to think this could be a smart call.

On the other hand, the bear case I find most persuasive rests on stretched valuations in US equity markets after an intense and unrelenting long-term bull market. If you look at a chart of VEA or VWO since, say, 2011, you'll see only minor price gains since then. Both are still well below their pre-crisis peaks! And valuations in those markets are arguably more reasonable.

So if now's not the time to buy international stocks, when is? People would salivate at the chance to buy the S&P 500 at 2006-2007 prices, but that opportunity is staring you in the face with other indices. I can't predict the future, and there many important caveats about correlations between markets, the global economic cycle, demographic challenges in Europe, and so on, but I feel like if I can buy equity exposure at a reasonable valuation, I might as well take what's on offer. It has a good chance of beating cash over a reasonably long time period. Thus I'm still buying international developed and emerging markets, even though I'm pretty pessimistic about US stocks, and don't own much US stock.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by siriusblack »

cherijoh wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:00 am But you can often use probability and expected returns to evaluate whether a particular strategy makes sense based on the associated risks. Insurance companies do this all the time when evaluating how much to charge customers. It is all a matter of having access to suffificient data.
Yes! I find nothing wrong with valuation-based forecasts of future returns. They may be wrong (and in fact, they almost certainly will be wrong in the short term at least)-- that's why they call it the "risk" premium in stocks. If expected returns were literally 100% random, then there would be no basis for investing at all.
Cash is King
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Cash is King »

In my opinion, this post confirms investing is 85-90% behavior and 10-15% knowledge.
Last edited by Cash is King on Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LadyGeek
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by LadyGeek »

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general discussion).
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Svensk Anga
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Svensk Anga »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:31 am
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:22 amSo I do agree that this is a really good time to be a thoughtful skeptic, particularly when you factor in the household net worth to income ratio. None of us are supposed to be this rich! :sharebeer
I thought about mentioning net worth to income ratio in my OP. It's something I track regularly and worth graphing. The latest Q4 2018 reading dipped due to the equity selloff, but I suspect it will recover in Q1 2019. I agree we are not supposed to be this rich.

Image
Isn't this trend just a result of an aging population combined with a shift from defined benefit to defined contribution retirement funding? Note that the Y-axis zero is displaced, exaggerating the trend.
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LadyGeek
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by LadyGeek »

For perspective, our newer members should read market timer's classic 29+ page thread here: A different approach to asset allocation (Sep 16, 2007)
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willthrill81
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by willthrill81 »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:10 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:29 am
dayzero wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:22 am There are also many roads that don't get to Dublin.
True, but how do you know in advance that the OP's strategy is a bad one? And how will you evaluate post hoc whether the strategy was poor?

If I own a homeowner's insurance policy for 40 years and never file a claim, does that mean that owning the policy was a bad strategy? Obviously not.
I think it’s a bad strategy because it’s based on emotion and not logic. (I think some people can develop intuition about things but that usually comes with significant expertise, knowledge and experience, and I don’t think based on the past performance that is the case here. And intuition can still be imperfect.)
I'm very much inclined to agree.
finite_difference wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:10 amI think it’s a bad strategy because you should have at least 25% in stocks.
For buy-and-hold, generally yes.
finite_difference wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:10 amI think it’s a bad strategy because the OP does not seem very transparent about calculating returns. Up 15% YTD is meaningless without also taking into account past performance over 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time spans.
The OP's transparency or lack thereof has nothing to do with his strategy, only how he and/or others evaluate it.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by MotoTrojan »

More importantly I just want to see the exerpt in your IPS on how/when you’ll re-enter the market.
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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

Market timing threads, so hot right now.
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GerryL
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by GerryL »

When I saw the title of this post, I thought it was about what is going on in my head right now: I am due to take my first RMD this year and have decided to move the RMD amount into the IRA settlement account (in other words, cash) this week even though I won't be pulling out my QCDs or RMD until later in the year.
The growth in the value of my IRA since 12/31/2018 is almost double the RMD I need to take. It just seems to make sense to put the money that I need to take out soon into cash now. I spent some time in the portfolio tester last night figuring out which funds to pull the money from and will execute the transaction by Monday.
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stemikger
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by stemikger »

lostdog wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:59 am :oops:

Noise thread on bogleheads.org.

Time in the market is better than timing the market.

Good luck market timers.
+1000

Don't let Jack's work be in vain. Market timing doesn't work. Stick with an AA and stop looking at the silly stock market.

the stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing!!
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lostdog
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by lostdog »

What's disturbing is some of the reply posts are trying to rationalize his decision and is somewhat affecting their behavior. It's amazing what one thread like this can do.
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HomerJ
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by HomerJ »

letsgobobby wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:32 amMarket timer is famous for his catastrophic foray into, well, market timing just at the height of the real estate crisis a decade ago. He’s literally the poster child for making huge mistakes based on gut feelings, and proof that being bright is no protection against disastrous cognitive errors. It’s even more disheartening that he’s apparently learned nothing from that experience. I make mistakes all the time, but I do try to learn from them.
I would have been fine with him moving to all cash because he no longer needs to take any risk at all.

But the fact that he listed reasons why a crash is imminent is disheartening.

He apparently thought everything was fine in December, but everything is terrible today. That is some serious cognitive dissonance.

Nobody knows enough to predict when the next crash will be. It may indeed start tomorrow. But no one knows for sure.

After all these years on these boards, market timer should know better...

Again, I don't fault his move (although I think 100% anything is extreme), but I do definitely fault his reasons for it.
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MNGopher
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by MNGopher »

I don't understand the all or nothing approach that market timers tend to take. Why not just adjust your portfolio by 5%. This may not yield the best result, but it probably won't be disastrous, and may relieve the itch to meddle with your portfolio further.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by DB2 »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:05 am
flyingaway wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:55 am Good intuition. When do you plan to move back into equities?
Possibly never. I don't feel FOMO (fear of missing out) because I don't need equity gains to fund my retirement. Seriously considering buying some single-family rentals with my stash. Let's see what the market offers later this year.
Many who consider U.S. stocks overvalued consider properties just as overvalued (at least part due to fed policies, hence, "asset bubbles"). If you're market timing, you might as well wait for the next recession before buying properties.
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Steve Reading
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Steve Reading »

Interesting. I never thought MT was a market timer. His famous thread felt like the opposite of market timing to me personally. Tried to spread equity exposure more evenly. First time I read it, the concept felt very sound to me.

This thread feels kinda like the exact opposite.

In that light, then maybe this one will end up being pretty successful. Mortgage Your Retirement (MYR) was the previous strategy.

Any thoughts on the name of this one? I propose Dash With Cash (DWC)
"... so high a present discounted value of wealth, it is only prudent for him to put more into common stocks compared to his present tangible wealth, borrowing if necessary" - Paul Samuelson
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Stinky
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Stinky »

OP, thanks for sharing your decision. Best of luck to you.

Please let us if/when you get back into equities, and what valuation or other metric you use to determine when to jump back into the pool.
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willthrill81
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by willthrill81 »

MNGopher wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:01 pm I don't understand the all or nothing approach that market timers tend to take. Why not just adjust your portfolio by 5%.
Because it's unlikely to move the needle in a significant way.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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willthrill81
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by willthrill81 »

lostdog wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:30 pm What's disturbing is some of the reply posts are trying to rationalize his decision and is somewhat affecting their behavior. It's amazing what one thread like this can do.
I'm not trying to rationalize the OP's decision. On the contrary, I believe that timing the market based on subjective criteria is, at best, flawed. What I have pointed out is that evaluating a strategy strictly on the basis of its results is problematic.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by drk »

lostdog wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:30 pm What's disturbing is some of the reply posts are trying to rationalize his decision and is somewhat affecting their behavior. It's amazing what one thread like this can do.
I find it's helpful to attempt to understand why someone is doing something as a matter of both intellectual honesty and empathy. People talk a lot about Sleep Well At Night allocations, so there's no reason to be hostile towards someone whose SWAN allocation has 0% stocks.
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sergeant
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by sergeant »

Relax everyone, Market Timer will be fine. He came back from near financial ruin and is sitting with 1.5 million. I too like round numbers and lowered my AA cause I wanted an even 2 million in stable value in our 457b accounts. I went from 50/50 to 10/90 to 35/65 during this exercise and lucked out by missing most of the December swoon. I lucked out again and the 35% equities caught most of the rise since. DW's stable value is at 3% and mine is over 4% guaranteed.

I'm not wired to be 100% either way but do plead guilty in making changes to my AA based on market timing information and intuition. I have done this many times and in the long run it has been detrimental to my overall net worth. I remember my losers not just the times it worked out for the better. New money is going into equities as I plan on getting back to 50/50.

Market Timer, good luck, I hope you are wrong and know you will stick around to face your critics, unlike 99% of others who start a thread in which their strategy goes wrong.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
LiterallyIronic
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by LiterallyIronic »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.

$1.5M x 2.5% interest / 365 days. Wow, I could get paid over $100/day just for sitting there and waiting. So that's what I'm doing. I got out of risk assets and went to cash yesterday.
Frankly, if I had $1.5 million, I'd be out of the stock market, too. Not because "this is the top and I'll jump back in later", but because I'd have "won the game" and I'd have no reason to keep money on the table. However, jumping out because "this is the top" and I'll get back in later is a losing proposition.

For the record, the DOW is currently 25,848.87. OP is claiming that it won't be higher than that at any point between today and December 31, 2019.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Nathan Drake »

LiterallyIronic wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:08 pm
market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.

$1.5M x 2.5% interest / 365 days. Wow, I could get paid over $100/day just for sitting there and waiting. So that's what I'm doing. I got out of risk assets and went to cash yesterday.
Frankly, if I had $1.5 million, I'd be out of the stock market, too. Not because "this is the top and I'll jump back in later", but because I'd have "won the game" and I'd have no reason to keep money on the table. However, jumping out because "this is the top" and I'll get back in later is a losing proposition.

For the record, the DOW is currently 25,848.87. OP is claiming that it won't be higher than that at any point between today and December 31, 2019.
At 1.5 million you only win the game if you keep playing and manage your risk apppropriately.

OP is taking all short term risk off the table, but it could be at the determinant to a thoughtful long term strategy depending on when he decides to get back in.

Reminds me of those always waiting for the next big 40+% crash since 2009 before getting back in.

Equities should regularly be reaching all time highs just based on their nature. Not all markets appear overvalued by any metrics.

Appropriate management of risk is to invest domestically, globally, and with bonds.

Going fully one way or another is not a sound strategy.
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

The factors cited by the OP have been around at many points over the last year or so, so I'm wondering if there might be a behavioral aspect to this -- a trigger event. One that comes to mind is the Boeing fiasco. Not the stock decline, which has been modest, but the very strong public disgust with what is supposed to be an icon of American business. I think the idea that investing in stocks puts you with the "good guys" has been a powerful factor in the people's willingness to trust their future to the big successful companies. I've often thought that the impact of Lehmann collapse was quite a bit due to that sort of trigger event.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by StandingRock »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:45 pm The factors cited by the OP have been around at many points over the last year or so, so I'm wondering if there might be a behavioral aspect to this -- a trigger event. One that comes to mind is the Boeing fiasco. Not the stock decline, which has been modest, but the very strong public disgust with what is supposed to be an icon of American business. I think the idea that investing in stocks puts you with the "good guys" has been a powerful factor in the people's willingness to trust their future to the big successful companies.
I can't really tell what OP is trying to do, I guess cash out until 2020 or some other year and go for 2.5% from here on out. Not sure why he thought we would want to know about it.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by long_gamma »

From the bond side, it make perfect sense to move out to short term bills. Here is the 5 year chart of the yield curve (short end). There is no point to extend the maturity.

Image

From equity perspective, I don't agree with his call. If i am uncomfortable, I would rather limit to the exposure to 25%.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by drk »

StandingRock wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:51 pm I can't really tell what OP is trying to do, I guess cash out until 2020 or some other year and go for 2.5% from here on out. Not sure why he thought we would want to know about it.
Here you go, straight from the horse's mouth:
market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:05 am Possibly never. I don't feel FOMO (fear of missing out) because I don't need equity gains to fund my retirement. Seriously considering buying some single-family rentals with my stash. Let's see what the market offers later this year.
As for why they decided to tell the board, aside from the fact that people clearly care (see: the popularity of this thread), market timer is the author of an iconic thread on this board.
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dodecahedron
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by dodecahedron »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:37 pm
Appropriate management of risk is to invest domestically, globally, and with bonds.

Going fully one way or another is not a sound strategy.
Far too sweeping a statement to be globally true for everyone in every situation. We can'not presume to know others´ utility functions and the nature of their choice spaces. Edge cases can be optimal solutions at times.

Examples where going 100% safe assets might be sound:

1) person with modest spending plans relative to ample safe income streams (e.g., SS, pensions) who has no further need or particular desire to take risk with their portfolio

2) emotionally fragile person who is still dealing with post-traumatic sequellae of some situation for whom a volatile portfolio might create undesirable consequences (e.g., sleepless nights) which might interfere with the productivity of their human capital or their ability to function in life or even to stay alive (stress can kill). The situation that originally induced the trauma might or might not be a financial one.

These are easy cases which come readily to mind. I am sure there are others.

If I had been through the experiences market timer described in his epic 29 page thread, I might well be feeling some strong emotional needs to take a ¨financial stress sabbatical¨ at least for a spell.

He has come a long way, is still quite young, and, I imagine, may have a lot to process.
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

gorow wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:26 am I worked with a couple of guys who would move their full 401k balance into megacorp stock before ex-dividend, and then move back to their AA immediately after. I tried getting them to do the math on how much of a market move would offset the dividend gain (less than 0.75%) but they were convinced that over the years, this added significant value to their portfolio.
I guess the OP does not have an IPS, or the IPS is sort of unique.
Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by long_gamma »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:05 am
flyingaway wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:55 am Good intuition. When do you plan to move back into equities?
Possibly never. I don't feel FOMO (fear of missing out) because I don't need equity gains to fund my retirement. Seriously considering buying some single-family rentals with my stash. Let's see what the market offers later this year.
Aren't you in Asia? As far as i know, rental yield is very low at least in south east asia.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
Cash is King
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Cash is King »

ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:24 pm
gorow wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:26 am I worked with a couple of guys who would move their full 401k balance into megacorp stock before ex-dividend, and then move back to their AA immediately after. I tried getting them to do the math on how much of a market move would offset the dividend gain (less than 0.75%) but they were convinced that over the years, this added significant value to their portfolio.
I guess the OP does not have an IPS, or the IPS is sort of unique.
Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Hmm. Ex-dividend date?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ations.asp
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-c ... -3571.html
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/h ... idend.aspx
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:48 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:24 pm
gorow wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:26 am I worked with a couple of guys who would move their full 401k balance into megacorp stock before ex-dividend, and then move back to their AA immediately after. I tried getting them to do the math on how much of a market move would offset the dividend gain (less than 0.75%) but they were convinced that over the years, this added significant value to their portfolio.
I guess the OP does not have an IPS, or the IPS is sort of unique.
Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Hmm. Ex-dividend date?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ations.asp
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-c ... -3571.html
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/h ... idend.aspx
No gain there either.
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
Trade the news and you will lose.
Cash is King
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Cash is King »

ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:10 pm
Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:48 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:24 pm
gorow wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:26 am I worked with a couple of guys who would move their full 401k balance into megacorp stock before ex-dividend, and then move back to their AA immediately after. I tried getting them to do the math on how much of a market move would offset the dividend gain (less than 0.75%) but they were convinced that over the years, this added significant value to their portfolio.
I guess the OP does not have an IPS, or the IPS is sort of unique.
Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Hmm. Ex-dividend date?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ations.asp
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-c ... -3571.html
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/h ... idend.aspx
No gain there either.
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
Agree. My point was that I believe the share value of the individual stock is adjusted downward on the ex-dividend date.
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My favorite line from the article is: " There are no free lunches on Wall street". Unfortunately, there will always be someone who believes they are smarter.
Last edited by Cash is King on Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

There are clearly pockets of the market that are overvalued, but there are a few pockets where they are undervalued. I've heard for years now that international is cheap, it's cheap for a reason or rather a multitude of reasons (insert here.....). Large value - cheap, but owning heavily indebted companies is not in itself a reason to buy (all that corporate debt is the bell tolling in the distance). There are no screaming buys - except to pay off high interest rate debt. Paying off debt where the interest rate exceeds 5-6% is the screaming buy right now. Any takers?
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carol-brennan
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by carol-brennan »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.
What freaks me out is that the market is heading to new highs when the world economy is slowing down. Financial engineering (stock buybacks), and when that's done, look out below.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by carol-brennan »

sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:06 pm New money is going into equities as I plan on getting back to 50/50.
Reverse glidepath with a pot of safe money to the side is smart, I think.
sambb
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by sambb »

if one's risk tolerance has changed, its not really timing I presume. If one cant handle a loss then one should rebalance to a lower allocation. Risk tolerance is a factor in asset allocation. For example, if one decides that they want to have lower volatility and preserve capital, then they should go to a lower allocation. it may not grow as much, but wont go down as much either. THis is related to personal risk tolerance.
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:32 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:10 pm
Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:48 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:24 pm
gorow wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:26 am I worked with a couple of guys who would move their full 401k balance into megacorp stock before ex-dividend, and then move back to their AA immediately after. I tried getting them to do the math on how much of a market move would offset the dividend gain (less than 0.75%) but they were convinced that over the years, this added significant value to their portfolio.
I guess the OP does not have an IPS, or the IPS is sort of unique.
Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Hmm. Ex-dividend date?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ations.asp
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-c ... -3571.html
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/h ... idend.aspx
No gain there either.
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
Agree. My point was that I believe the share value of the individual stock is adjusted downward on the ex-dividend date.
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... nds-matter
My favorite line from the article is: " There are no free lunches on Wall street". Unfortunately, there will always be someone who believes they are smarter.
Gotcha! Exactly... no free lunches. It is amazing that a retail investor thinks they can just pick money off the table without even doing a simple google search to see whether or not their scheme is valid.
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:53 pm
market timer wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.
What freaks me out is that the market is heading to new highs when the world economy is slowing down. Financial engineering (stock buybacks), and when that's done, look out below.
A stock buyback is a form of return of capital. You think it’s financial engineering, it’s also a way to mask the true cost of executive compensation. They aren’t announcing stock buybacks out of the goodness of their hearts. It’s financial engineering when they swap your equity for debt, that is the funny money game.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Cash is King
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Cash is King »

ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:08 pm
Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:32 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:10 pm
Cash is King wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:48 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:24 pm

Huh? There is no "gain" when a dividend is paid. The stock price is adjusted downwards by the amount of the dividend. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... g-dividend
Hmm. Ex-dividend date?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ations.asp
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-c ... -3571.html
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/h ... idend.aspx
No gain there either.
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
Agree. My point was that I believe the share value of the individual stock is adjusted downward on the ex-dividend date.
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... nds-matter
My favorite line from the article is: " There are no free lunches on Wall street". Unfortunately, there will always be someone who believes they are smarter.
Gotcha! Exactly... no free lunches. It is amazing that a retail investor thinks they can just pick money off the table without even doing a simple google search to see whether or not their scheme is valid.
I may be missing the intent of your Gotcha comment. I believe I agreed there is no gain.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by drk »

^ You two are in violent agreement. Take a step back and read again to understand that.
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

drk wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:30 pm ^ You two are in violent agreement. Take a step back and read again to understand that.
Haha... yeah, sorry... the "gotcha" was meant to mean the same as "Rodger that," ie. I completely agree. Yes... violent agreement... haha.
Trade the news and you will lose.
DrGoogle2017
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by DrGoogle2017 »

I think it’s extreme, 100% in cash, then I read thread 100% in stocks.
Cash is King
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Cash is King »

ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:40 pm
drk wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:30 pm ^ You two are in violent agreement. Take a step back and read again to understand that.
Haha... yeah, sorry... the "gotcha" was meant to mean the same as "Rodger that," ie. I completely agree. Yes... violent agreement... haha.
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staythecourse
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by staythecourse »

cherijoh wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:01 am Thanks for posting your experience. Most people wouldn't be this honest - even on an anonymous forum! :wink: You are absolutely correct - market timing only works to your advantage when you get the timing right twice.
For our younger investors that means twice every time you make this type of move over the entire time horizon of an investor's life (50 years or so). With that in mind makes me wonder why ANYONE would even try market timing as the chances of getting it right more then wrong is so low. It obviously is not the logical approach so much be an emotional one? Have always said if you can't figure out why someone does something that is not logical the answer is always either 1. Emotions or 2. Money. The worst part here is it it likely emotional involving money (fear of losing or greed of getting more).

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by livesoft »

staythecourse wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:18 pm
cherijoh wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:01 am Thanks for posting your experience. Most people wouldn't be this honest - even on an anonymous forum! :wink: You are absolutely correct - market timing only works to your advantage when you get the timing right twice.
For our younger investors that means twice every time you make this type of move over the entire time horizon of an investor's life (50 years or so). With that in mind makes me wonder why ANYONE would even try market timing as the chances of getting it right more then wrong is so low. ....
The idea that one has to get timing right twice is a joke. One can get the timing right once and wrong on the second half and still do fine. Example:
Sell at top in October 2007, buy in December 2008. Since the market dropped from December 2008 to March 2009, the December 2008 buy was "wrong". So what? One can invent many other trivial examples, such as: Sell in December 2008 (wrong since better timing was to sell earlier) and buy in March 2009 or April 2009.

The reality is that most market timing is not as bad as bogleheads.org posters make it out to be. People buy too late, sell too soon or they don't rebalance properly or at the best times.

Or a classic: Tax-loss harvest by selling losers, but don't buy replacement shares and instead stay in cash for 30 days. At least one poster who rails against market timing advocates that form of market timing.

I think most market timing doesn't make any sense at all, but for most investors it is probably no worse than some other behavioral finance traps that are not called market timing.
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MNGopher
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by MNGopher »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:34 pm
MNGopher wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:01 pm I don't understand the all or nothing approach that market timers tend to take. Why not just adjust your portfolio by 5%.
Because it's unlikely to move the needle in a significant way.
Exactly, the needle didn't need moving, but they satisfied their desire to do something.
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by aspirit »

MNGopher wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:39 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:34 pm
MNGopher wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:01 pm I don't understand the all or nothing approach that market timers tend to take. Why not just adjust your portfolio by 5%.
Because it's unlikely to move the needle in a significant way.
Exactly, the needle didn't need moving, but they satisfied their desire to do something.
IMO 5% seems to marginal to effect change. Some speculate it all.
Good luck & Best wishes marketimer ....
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