My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

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Ohalawa
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My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Ohalawa » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm

My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.

Is there an AA group for market timers like myself? Is there a CURE? :?
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau

staythecourse
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by staythecourse » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:22 pm

The cure? Being broke/ poor from your decisions. If that is not enough motivation to stop then there is no point giving advice. The truth is some folks just can't stop tripping over the own feet.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

StandingRock
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by StandingRock » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:22 pm

Yes, avoid the financial news.

software
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by software » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:26 pm

Scratch your market timing itch in a way that won’t devastate your portfolio.

There are many degrees to market timing, with the most extreme involving moving completely in and out of the market or even more extreme employing a similar strategy but with leverage.

I consider what livesoft does with his RBD strategy and “over-rebalancing” on these days a form of mild market timing. Doing something similar to this would let you scratch your itch without likely causing much impact to your portfolio either positive or negative. Probably fractions of a percentage point in either direction.

retiredjg
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by retiredjg » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:32 pm

If you are seriously looking for a solution because everything you have tried to do to fix this has failed, the solution I suggest is moving all your moveable assets into Vanguard's Personal Advisor Service at .3%.

DesertMan
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by DesertMan » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:49 pm

The cure is:
1. Dollar cost averaging
2. Adequate asset allocation for all of your goals (I.e. not having a 1-2 year goal in mostly stocks.)

mortfree
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by mortfree » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:50 pm

Are you market timing on the buy side? The sell side? Or both?

DaufuskieNate
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by DaufuskieNate » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:53 pm

Another Cure: Measure your results against a passive benchmark. Be rigorous and honest in your analysis. This helps to "cure" the tendency to only remember your occasional wins.

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Ohalawa
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Ohalawa » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:56 pm

I am market timing on both ends, buying & selling. Thank you for the advice! :sharebeer
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau

livesoft
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by livesoft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:07 pm

I am a market timer and I am not bothered at all about being called a market timer. There is a wide spectrum of market timing activities going on here at Bogleheads.org. For myself, if my portfolio value is $X, then I usually have a "turnover" of close to 100% each year. That is, my sell transactions total about $X and my buy transactions total about $X, too. I've worked out how to pay no commissions and no taxes and no fees on all those transactions, too.

Almost everybody here does some form of market timing even if they don't admit to it. A classic one is that folks will not rebalance in order to buy equities when there has been a big market drop. They fail to follow their rebalancing plan, but claim they do not do market timing. Ha!
Last edited by livesoft on Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kenkat
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Kenkat » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:07 pm

DaufuskieNate wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:53 pm
Another Cure: Measure your results against a passive benchmark. Be rigorous and honest in your analysis. This helps to "cure" the tendency to only remember your occasional wins.
^ this is what I tell people who start talking about their market moves. I’ve yet to find anyone who moves in and out of the market who actually does this.

Dottie57
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Dottie57 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:10 pm

I guess I have market timed by “harvesting” some stock gains and putting into my SSCD ladder. I was out of balance by 1% - Iwould usually wait until for 5%.

livesoft
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by livesoft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:10 pm

Kenkat wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:07 pm
DaufuskieNate wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:53 pm
Another Cure: Measure your results against a passive benchmark. Be rigorous and honest in your analysis. This helps to "cure" the tendency to only remember your occasional wins.
^ this is what I tell people who start talking about their market moves. I’ve yet to find anyone who moves in and out of the market who actually does this.
I recommend this as well and I actually do this in a very rigorous way.
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28fe6
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by 28fe6 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:16 pm

I have this problem and mitigate it with my "never sell" IPS. It lets me time all I want without causing major damage.

viewtopic.php?t=271567

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:21 pm

Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.

Is there an AA group for market timers like myself? Is there a CURE? :?
Ohalawa:

I believe nearly all new investors (and some who never learn) believe they know when stocks are going to go up, or when stocks are going to go down, because of daily forecasts in the media. These forecasts encourage naive readers to invest in the media's recommended stocks and funds. It makes money for the media and their recommendations.

The next time you have an urge to market-time read what 120 experts say about market-timing:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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RickBoglehead
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by RickBoglehead » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:22 pm

How is this thread actionable? :shock:
Avid user of forums on variety of interests-financial, home brewing, F-150, PHEV, home repair, etc. Enjoy learning & passing on knowledge. It's PRINCIPAL, not PRINCIPLE. I ADVISE you to seek ADVICE.

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Kenkat
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Kenkat » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:23 pm

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:22 pm
How is this thread actionable? :shock:
The poster is asking for advice on how to stop his market timing activities. Sounds actionable to me.

H-Town
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by H-Town » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:24 pm

Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.

Is there an AA group for market timers like myself? Is there a CURE? :?
Market timing is such a broad word. Break it down to specific actions, then categorize them into 3 columns: 1) You may do it; 2) Ugh - You're taking chances; and 3) DO NOT EVEN ATTEMPT.

1) "You may do it" category:
- Save more and buy more during a crash.
- Rebalance into stock during a crash.
- Rebalance into bond/fixed income during a bull market.
- TLH during a crash.
- Tax planning and rearrange asset location to fit your tax strategies.

2) "Ugh - You're taking chances" category:
- Stay on the sideline and hold cash for an extended period of time.
- Be 100% equity / all or nothing without having cash buffer or EF.
- Make buy / sell decision based on how you feel and how the market is doing recently.

3) "DO NOT EVEN ATTEMPT / ARE YOU STUPID" category:
- Move into cash to anticipate a crash.
- Change AA to be more aggressive when stock is running high.
- Change AA to be conservative when stock is diving.

Dandy
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Dandy » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:48 pm

If you can't help falling back into it -- the group that treats gambling addiction might be for you. You are getting a high on the action and the thrill of "winning" (outsmarting the average Joe maybe even the Pro's). It also becomes a hobby e.g. reading market reports, checking the market, listening to CNBC and the market mavens, etc. If so, you need a substitute interest/hobby.

Have a friend who is very smart who has gone broke once and nearly again by playing the market. He can't resist the challenge to use his smarts to beat the averages. I think it was late in 2015 that he was bragging he was up X% and trading several hours a day doing things like option trading. I said the S&P is up a bit more. He was somewhat surprised.

livesoft
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by livesoft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:52 pm

I am curious as to the kind of Market Timing that the OP does. If the OP reported transactions in this thread before they occurred or as they occurred in near real-time, then I think it would provide a powerful public double-check on whether what they are doing is productive.

There are a few such near real-time blogs on the internet ... some going for years now. The unsuccessful ones die off pretty quickly as the author(s) get a light shined on their results. OTOH, hobbies are not free, so paying (losing) a little money could just be considered the cost of having an enjoyable time investing.
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stan1
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by stan1 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:00 pm

Market time your fixed income to get best tax equivalent yield balanced against risk (bonds, money market funds, municipal bonds, CDs, FDIC savings).

Buy more equities on market dips. Put equity ETFs in taxable so you'll have to pay taxes on realized gains causing you to think long and hard before selling. Use ETFs instead of mutual funds so you can geek out on bid ask spread. Tax loss harvest in taxable.

These all let you have the hands on engagement you crave but won't lead to big mistakes.

software
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by software » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:14 pm

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:22 pm
How is this thread actionable? :shock:
How many of your posts are questioning a threads’ action-ability? How about you leave the armchair policing to the mods and post when you actually have something useful to say.

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DanMahowny
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by DanMahowny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:31 pm

My name is Dan and I am a market timer.

I went 100% equities in June 2009.

All cash in Jan 2018.

What the heck. Did pretty good so far.
Funding secured

GCD
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by GCD » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:42 pm

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:22 pm
How is this thread actionable? :shock:
Completely actionable. Read through the thread and you will see numerous very specific actions people are suggesting that OP can act on.

rich126
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by rich126 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:51 pm

I guess it depends on what you mean. I certainly see nothing wrong with buying more of a stock, or even an index, when it has gone down more than it should, and selling when things are over valued. What I don't think is good is when people are getting/old of stocks/indexes on a frequent basis.
That may not be a popular comment here but I think it is wise.

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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:00 pm

i guess the AA group would be bogleheads for the most part (with livesoft as the exception) who will tell you market timing for most people fails over time. As to a cure? Experience is generally the best teacher. If you're using an AA theme here then you'd have to hit rock bottom before you could actually be on the road to recovery, right? What does rock bottom look like? Different for everyone. Guess you'll know it when you see it. Hopefully it won't be too late (i.e., you won't be out of money and out of time...at retirement).

Have you played the Outsmart the Market game? If not, try here:
https://www.prudential.com/cdn/tools/ou ... oolcta=OFF

Do you have an IPS? If not, get one here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement

Follow it. It helps you follow a process mechanically and not leave things up to the whims of the market.

here's another game to play:
https://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-sh ... right-now/

here's why it's better to face the correction (which occurs more often than you'd think considering on average the market has an intrayear decline of 14%) and shows why people often don't get the returns of the market because they're too busy trying to time the market:
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1

read this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2019-02-06

Meet Bob, the world's worst market timer (the thing is, he only bought, never sold. When you get out of the market, you often miss out on those juicy upswings):
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

It's not timing the market, but time in the market that matters.

A portfolio is like a wet bar of soap. The more you handle it, the smaller it gets.

And as in the Serenity Prayer, I hope you come to realize the things that cannot be changed, the courage to change the things which can be changed and the wisdom to know the difference.

Do you feel better when the market's closed than when it's open? That should tell you something. Turn off cnbc.

Oh, and take it one day at a time.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:09 pm

Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
The word "but" is a red flag. When someone uses this, the part that comes after the "but" negates the part before the "but".

So you don't really know that market timing is futile. Because if you did, you'd simply say, "I know that market timing is futile."

See the difference? So you haven't really learned yet. You haven't suffered enough or severe enough consequences. In the world of behavioral psychology, you haven't had enough negative reinforcement and/or punishment to extinguish your behavior. Considering the intermittent reinforcement of gambling, which market timing is a form of gambling, at any point in which you are positively reinforced for market timing (you gain) that keeps you gambling through market timing. Like a slot machine that pays out every so many times, you keep playing waiting for the next good market timing experience, losing track of all the times market timing didn't work in your favor.
Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.
That's the intermittent reinforcement nature of gambling, market timing, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforce ... _schedules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforce ... _schedules
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

123
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by 123 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:16 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:32 pm
If you are seriously looking for a solution because everything you have tried to do to fix this has failed, the solution I suggest is moving all your moveable assets into Vanguard's Personal Advisor Service at .3%.
An alternative could be a fund-of-funds like a balanced fund, Target Retirement fund, or a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund. From the comments on this board I have the impression that Vanguard PAS basically gives you a portfolio that is like a Target Retirement, it's just that you get the component funds instead and maybe a little slice-and-dice on the bond or stock side to make it seem like it's worth .3%

If a single fund is suitable then you are done. The fund does everything for you.

Maybe it's worth .3% to have someone to talk to about your investments. I think a bartender or a dog would work just as well, I wouldn't want any arguments.
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:39 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:09 pm
Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
The word "but" is a red flag. When someone uses this, the part that comes after the "but" negates the part before the "but".

So you don't really know that market timing is futile. Because if you did, you'd simply say, "I know that market timing is futile."

See the difference? So you haven't really learned yet. You haven't suffered enough or severe enough consequences. In the world of behavioral psychology, you haven't had enough negative reinforcement and/or punishment to extinguish your behavior. Considering the intermittent reinforcement of gambling, which market timing is a form of gambling, at any point in which you are positively reinforced for market timing (you gain) that keeps you gambling through market timing. Like a slot machine that pays out every so many times, you keep playing waiting for the next good market timing experience, losing track of all the times market timing didn't work in your favor.
Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.
That's the intermittent reinforcement nature of gambling, market timing, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforce ... _schedules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforce ... _schedules
+1

OP's sentence (and many similar ones posted in BH) would more accurately be written as:

"I know [that you are going to tell me] that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into it."

DrGoogle2017
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:39 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:31 pm
My name is Dan and I am a market timer.

I went 100% equities in June 2009.

All cash in Jan 2018.

What the heck. Did pretty good so far.
You should buy the lottery, forget all this market timing.

Theoretical
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Theoretical » Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:35 pm

The real key to investing, in my opinion, has less to do with a chosen strategy so much as it does with how you execute. Namely, are you systematic or discretionary? Are you following the rules for your portfolio or shifting around based on the news and/or emotions?

Passive definitely is a systematic approach to invest in that there are rules for the universe of stocks and the criteria they're weighted. That's one of the great strengths of index funds in that they don't panic and change AA when the market's terrible (or lever up when it's great). They just hum along like the tortoise. It's a bit heretical, but the same principle is true for a lot of the hardcore trendfollowers.

If your asset allocation is buy and hold 100% stocks, are you buying every time you get the chance and only selling for non-market reasons (say retirement withdrawals), regardless of whether stocks are doing great or the Depression looks around the corner. And do you keep making the purchases even when you immediately lose money or do you pull profits after a sudden run-up or cut losses?

If your asset allocation involves trend-following, for simplicity, say a 200 day moving average, do you get in every single time the 200 day moving average is crossed on the upside and get out every single time on the downside? And do you keep making the trades you're told to make by the system even when you get whipsawed? If you use some kind of stop-loss or trailing stop, do you get out when it tells you even if the news couldn't be sunnier?

The same goes for Graham/Buffett value strategies, factors or the like.

More importantly, does your chosen strategy have periods of long and painful drawdowns where you can execute perfectly and still lose potentially a lot of money. If it doesn't, watch out. B&H Japanese stocks has not been a good bet, and neither was it a good one to hold from 1999-2009 for US stocks, but it's been a heck of a good ride to be B&H the last 10 years and a terrible time for trend followers.

Absent the actually dangerous - 100% 5x S&P on margin, what really marks a strategy's success is discipline, consistency, and a lack of emotions.

staythecourse
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by staythecourse » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:31 pm
My name is Dan and I am a market timer.

I went 100% equities in June 2009.

All cash in Jan 2018.

What the heck. Did pretty good so far.
Honestly, not that impressive. Folks have already done the studies showing PERFECT timing in and out and it STILL lags behind a buy and hold. So even if you continue to be perfect you still will lose out to me.

The reason? Folks don't seem to know (even I just noticed it recently) that the ERP is TIME dependent and NOT in regards to bull or bear markets. It is time dependent on just a few days. Think since 1970's the ENTIRE ERP comes down to less then 1% of all trading days. That means if you miss one of those days being out at the "right time" during a bear market you will still under perform. Surprisingly, no one really talks about this aspect of investing and this is why market timing does not work. Unless you can market time and figure out the exact 1% of dates that makes a difference over just holding cash you will under perform the buy and hold investor.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Toons
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Toons » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:27 pm

Get A Hobby.
:happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

JBTX
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by JBTX » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:46 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:31 pm
My name is Dan and I am a market timer.

I went 100% equities in June 2009.

All cash in Jan 2018.

What the heck. Did pretty good so far.
Honestly, not that impressive. Folks have already done the studies showing PERFECT timing in and out and it STILL lags behind a buy and hold. So even if you continue to be perfect you still will lose out to me.

The reason? Folks don't seem to know (even I just noticed it recently) that the ERP is TIME dependent and NOT in regards to bull or bear markets. It is time dependent on just a few days. Think since 1970's the ENTIRE ERP comes down to less then 1% of all trading days. That means if you miss one of those days being out at the "right time" during a bear market you will still under perform. Surprisingly, no one really talks about this aspect of investing and this is why market timing does not work. Unless you can market time and figure out the exact 1% of dates that makes a difference over just holding cash you will under perform the buy and hold investor.

Good luck.
No offense, this doesn't make any sense.

andrew99999
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by andrew99999 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:43 pm

1. Target date fund?

2. Lay out your financial plan and IPS with the wife and make sure only she can implement any changes after a discussion with you and a waiting period of 3 or 6 months after agreement?

3. Get Rick Ferri as an advisor and tell him to slap you any time you come to talk to him about changing an allocation other than to moderately adjust it based on risk tolerance?

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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Peppergrass » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:16 pm

I for sure have some advice for you

options.. play with them , learn them, market time them, love the ups and downs... make a goal to yourself, to play the money you earn from options, and then keep at it.

but here's the catch you need to start with one.. only one. because you don't know options.. they are highly leveraged and will take your life away by giving you mini heart attacks and mega highs... so start with one, in a year you might be playing with a 50-100 depending how good you are or not..

you need to fiddle, and that's ok.. what you hear is most of us coming to our "common senses".. we don't Care what the markets does today or next week or next year... that's the way they play and it's usually a guaranteed winner.. I get it, it's exciting making 10-30% gain in one month vs. thinking holding your stuff in bonds is making 2.5%.. exciting, or how about a 20k return holding some hot jumper like Netflix, apple, amazon... EXCITING

I suggest options. they are leveraged meaning you make and lose a ton, they can move very rapid or they can dissolve and you watch the profit stack up.. very cool and will keep you from touching your other stuff..

I play options but not for thrill. I play for income and making some extra money. I have expensive tastes which require cash flow baby! but I can see where people would love speculative bets, near sure winners, and everything in between. you have it there with options.. when you get bored of one style there is so many ways to play options and understand them.. then if you want you can move to futures options. Options are amazing as you can buy or sell them and the mixing of length of time, the buying and or selling and different strike prices give so many combos you would be busy for 20+ yers if you really wanted to start to master them.. as I is there is speculative playing, income generation techniques, everything to fancy everyone...

give it a try, just start with one.. my advice if you sell an option close out at 300% loss... you'll see what I mean down the road. buying involves no loss except the money you buy it for or you could cash it out at any % down what you paid for technically.... seriously so much to learn and have your fancy at it would keep your fingers off the sell button..

also this is great way if you do make money with your options tell yourself anything you make go buy stock with if you like.. that's what I do, I buy stock every week with my options income and pull money to buy hordes of stuff. so I have my slow stock stuff I don't touch and keep growing, then I have my options I play.. but once again I do it for money, not chasing a thrill.

venkman
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by venkman » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:18 pm

Take 5% of your portfolio, market time with that as much as you want, and don't feel at all guilty about it.

H-Town
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by H-Town » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:04 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:31 pm
My name is Dan and I am a market timer.

I went 100% equities in June 2009.

All cash in Jan 2018.

What the heck. Did pretty good so far.
You're still amateur compared to this guy: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... nk=sfmw_tw

WildBill
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by WildBill » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:21 pm

Howdy

My name is Wild Bill and I am a non-recovering and unrepentant market timer.

My friend Sam has it worse. He confesses to his Mom that he is a market timer,but only because he is actually too ashamed to admit to being an attorney.

Enjoy buying the dips, or selling the spikes, or whatever works for you.

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

revhappy
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by revhappy » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:10 am

Peppergrass wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:16 pm
I for sure have some advice for you

options.. play with them , learn them, market time them, love the ups and downs... make a goal to yourself, to play the money you earn from options, and then keep at it.
I got burnt a bit by playing with TSLA options. Now I am more conservative. I am in 90% cash and 10% equities right now. So I can take some risk with options.

On Friday night I sold 1 SPY 250 PUT Dec 2019 for $8.5. It is cash secured, so I am ok with buying SPY if markets fall that much. But now I am wondering, what if SPY falls like to 255 and then bounces back, my MTM loss at that point is huge, and even though markets have become cheap, I cannot take advantage of the low prices, I just have to be happy with the options premium. So how do I fix this? Is selling PUTs really the best way to buy stocks at low prices?
Last edited by revhappy on Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

coacher
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by coacher » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:23 am

Ohalawa wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm
My name is ____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I know that market timing is futile, but I keep sliding back into in.
I think I’m no longer market timing, but find myself back to it, again & again.

Is there an AA group for market timers like myself? Is there a CURE? :?
Don't fret as long as you are being honest with yourself. My name is Steve and I am a market timer with 75% of my portfolio in my tax deferred accounts. I do things like "sell in May and go Away" and perform actions based on the "January Effect" and other "not so proven" tenets, but I do them consistently and actually have put them in my IPS. I am also not so pompous or naive to think that my slightly above average long term performance (and it really is only slightly above average) is repeatable with any predictability. If one wants to be "cured" that has more to do with how he/she changes behavior in response to reward and punishment, and finding (ideally for free) a "sponsor" to call when "sliding back in" for support is the key to success there. Good luck!

Onagoth
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Onagoth » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:50 am

I feel I have a mild form of market timing as well...but I have some rules in place to mitigate any damage...like

1) I do not sell my equities, ever. (I am 30+ years away from retirement)
2) I contribute large lump sums to my portfolio annually or semi annually (directing bonuses into my tax deferred accounts)
3) I don't let my equity exposure go below 50%...nor does it go higher than 80%

What I am essentially left with is a decision each year about how to allocate my lump sum. If I am nervous about equities, I put most of it in fixed income/HISAs. If I am optimistic, a lot goes into equities (without going over my max allocation).

If I end up at 40/50% FI in my portfolio, I am actively looking for opportunities to buy. If market drops 10%, I bring in 1/4 of the excess FI into equities. If markets go drop 20%, another 1/3. At 40% drop from peak, I would be at my max equity exposure.

I did this in December when the markets dropped, but not to the full extent when the market was down ~20% (I Couldn't convert my foreign currency fast enough and missed out).

Note, I have only been doing this for the past year or so. But it seems to be working for me. I take great satisfaction in the feeling that I am not buying at the top of a market. When I buy at 10/20/30/40% drops, even if it goes down further, I don't feel bad.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:10 am

Dan:

On August 08, 2017 you wrote: "I'm always buying. I'll stop when I die." In the post above you wrote: "All cash in Jan 2018?"

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

nullbytes
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by nullbytes » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:14 am

StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:22 pm
Yes, avoid the financial news.
I tried to start watching cnbc in the mornings before work and it's been insane. During up days they talk about how this is a new rally, expect new highs for the next 3 months, then the next day when it's down all their saying is that the bears won and it's 5 weeks of downside. Literally the next day.

:oops:

StandingRock
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by StandingRock » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:40 am

nullbytes wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:14 am
StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:22 pm
Yes, avoid the financial news.
I tried to start watching cnbc in the mornings before work and it's been insane. During up days they talk about how this is a new rally, expect new highs for the next 3 months, then the next day when it's down all their saying is that the bears won and it's 5 weeks of downside. Literally the next day.

:oops:
I used to look at CNNMoney, and CNBC, etc. and that's just the way they are. And the feature articles are typically written by interns, are full of grammatical errors and wild generalizations about personal finance and workplace issues. Easily 99% do not match my career experience or life experience. Just... bad advice all around.

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Dialectical Investor
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by Dialectical Investor » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:00 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm

Honestly, not that impressive. Folks have already done the studies showing PERFECT timing in and out and it STILL lags behind a buy and hold. So even if you continue to be perfect you still will lose out to me.

The reason? Folks don't seem to know (even I just noticed it recently) that the ERP is TIME dependent and NOT in regards to bull or bear markets. It is time dependent on just a few days. Think since 1970's the ENTIRE ERP comes down to less then 1% of all trading days. That means if you miss one of those days being out at the "right time" during a bear market you will still under perform. Surprisingly, no one really talks about this aspect of investing and this is why market timing does not work. Unless you can market time and figure out the exact 1% of dates that makes a difference over just holding cash you will under perform the buy and hold investor.

Good luck.
Maybe there are some good ones out there, but a lot of these "studies" do not say anything useful, even if the observations are correct. For instance, you shouldn't care about missing the days with largest gains if you also miss the days with equally large losses, and those two events often happen close together. Yes, missing out on the 10 best days or whatever would greatly reduce your lifetime returns, but it's hard to do that without missing the worst days too. Just like it's hard to miss out on the worst days without also missing out on the best days. Only a market timer would think otherwise. :)

KlangFool
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by KlangFool » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:09 pm

OP,

I know that I know nothing. And, I know that the investment professional knows nothing too.

I lost 50% of my whole life savings by gambling in Telecom stock. My family member worked in Wall Street for 20+ years. He was paid 7 figures in annual salary and bonuses. He has a master degree in Economy from the University of Chicago: the best university in the world for the economy. He lost 10 million in Telecom stock. He knows nothing too.

So, until and unless you know that you know nothing, nobody can help you.

KlangFool

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305pelusa
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by 305pelusa » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:13 pm

Dialectical Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:00 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm

Honestly, not that impressive. Folks have already done the studies showing PERFECT timing in and out and it STILL lags behind a buy and hold. So even if you continue to be perfect you still will lose out to me.

The reason? Folks don't seem to know (even I just noticed it recently) that the ERP is TIME dependent and NOT in regards to bull or bear markets. It is time dependent on just a few days. Think since 1970's the ENTIRE ERP comes down to less then 1% of all trading days. That means if you miss one of those days being out at the "right time" during a bear market you will still under perform. Surprisingly, no one really talks about this aspect of investing and this is why market timing does not work. Unless you can market time and figure out the exact 1% of dates that makes a difference over just holding cash you will under perform the buy and hold investor.

Good luck.
Maybe there are some good ones out there, but a lot of these "studies" do not say anything useful, even if the observations are correct. For instance, you shouldn't care about missing the days with largest gains if you also miss the days with equally large losses, and those two events often happen close together. Yes, missing out on the 10 best days or whatever would greatly reduce your lifetime returns, but it's hard to do that without missing the worst days too. Just like it's hard to miss out on the worst days without also missing out on the best days. Only a market timer would think otherwise. :)
I thought I read at some point that the vast majority of people underperform the very mutual funds they invest in. This tells me that people market time and manage to miss many of the good days while still suffering plenty of the bad days. That's what I thought I read at some point any ways.

H-Town
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Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by H-Town » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:14 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:09 pm
OP,

I know that I know nothing. And, I know that the investment professional knows nothing too.

I lost 50% of my whole life savings by gambling in Telecom stock. My family member worked in Wall Street for 20+ years. He was paid 7 figures in annual salary and bonuses. He has a master degree in Economy from the University of Chicago: the best university in the world for the economy. He lost 10 million in Telecom stock. He knows nothing too.

So, until and unless you know that you know nothing, nobody can help you.

KlangFool
It's ironic that some people may hold cash on the sideline for a long period of time because they don't know anything and scare of losing money. Or some might experience 2008 and never come close to stock market ever again. Of course that's an extreme end of the spectrum.

KlangFool
Posts: 14716
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

Post by KlangFool » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:20 pm

H-Town wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:14 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:09 pm
OP,

I know that I know nothing. And, I know that the investment professional knows nothing too.

I lost 50% of my whole life savings by gambling in Telecom stock. My family member worked in Wall Street for 20+ years. He was paid 7 figures in annual salary and bonuses. He has a master degree in Economy from the University of Chicago: the best university in the world for the economy. He lost 10 million in Telecom stock. He knows nothing too.

So, until and unless you know that you know nothing, nobody can help you.

KlangFool
It's ironic that some people may hold cash on the sideline for a long period of time because they don't know anything and scare of losing money. Or some might experience 2008 and never come close to stock market ever again. Of course that's an extreme end of the spectrum.
H-Town,

Ironic?

1) After I lost 50%, I held a significant amount of cash on the sideline for a few years.

2) Then, I was 50% VSMGX and 50% Wellington fund for a few more years. I was paying a lot of taxes by holding those funds in my taxable account.

3) After a few more years, only then, I moved 60% of my portfolio from VSMGX into 3 funds and Larry portfolio in order to save taxes.

The whole journey took about 10+ years. Ironic is not the word that I would use to describe my journey.

KlangFool

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