Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

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ReformedSpender
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Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:40 am

It's been exactly a decade since the low of the financial crisis on March 6th, 2009 (we can celebrate at 3:25pm ET when the S&P hit a intraday low of 666). Here is a snapshot at what's changed since then...

Image

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:44 am

Some other interesting facts (data is ever so slightly dated):

Image

Image

Image

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Svensk Anga
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Svensk Anga » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:33 am

I have been watching the personal performance tab at Vanguard as we count down to the anniversary of the bottom. It shows a total investment gain dollar figure for the last 10 years. Its very gratifying to see how far we have come.

Regarding those worst performers, it looks like it could be time to load up on natural resource stocks. That is, if Bogleheads did that sort of thing. :wink:

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Taj_Mahalo
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Taj_Mahalo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:36 am

How should we celebrate? Do nothing? :P
Income is not wealth. Wealth is not income. Both are equally as important and either is capable of producing the other.

NotWhoYouThink
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:39 am

Thanks for the reminder. I used to keep a Nadir file, listing all the points I thought our investments had hit the low before the recovery. We were down 42% from our 2007 peak. Up nicely since then, even after putting both kids thru college starting fall 2008.

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:24 am

Looking at those lists of companies is weird. What happened to Walmart? Number two in 2009 and off the top ten now? And the list of best stocks since 2009? Most of those I haven't even heard of and the only one I directly give money to is NVIDIA (unless some of these are weird parent companies or something). I mean, Gartner, Booking Holdings, Incyte Corp? Who?

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:22 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:24 am
What happened to Walmart? Number two in 2009 and off the top ten now?
FAANG fury

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

2015
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by 2015 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:41 pm

My only concern is this market, like all bull markets, has brought a lot of gamblers to the casino looking to strike it rich. History has repeatedly demonstrated that something wicked this way comes. It's just a matter of time. Lots of "students of investing" will be in for a world of hurt.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:47 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:24 am
Looking at those lists of companies is weird. What happened to Walmart? Number two in 2009 and off the top ten now? And the list of best stocks since 2009? Most of those I haven't even heard of and the only one I directly give money to is NVIDIA (unless some of these are weird parent companies or something). I mean, Gartner, Booking Holdings, Incyte Corp? Who?
Gartner is a big deal in enterprise IT, they are like the Yelp for CIOs deciding to spend $Ms on a new technology. My marketing team literally gets bonuses based on where we fall in their Magic Quadrant reports.

Booking Holdings owns Priceline, OpenTable, and bunch of other travel booking sites.

Incyte...you got me there 🤷🏻‍♂️

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patrick013
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by patrick013 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:51 pm

It appears to take ordinarily five or six years for public confidence to go from the point of too little hope to the point of too much confidence and then five or six years more to get back to the condition of hopelessness.

This makes a very good showing for the ten year theory, and it is supported to a considerable extent by what has occurred in this country during the past 2 centuries.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm

Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by mrspock » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:04 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
Did it though? Didn’t the 20% require some rounding? Wasn’t it -19.8% or something? Maybe I’m a stickler for math but I kinda want a clean -20%+ :) .

Dec 24th close was 2351 and the high was 2931 on Sep 20. Or do we count intraday numbers?

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:07 pm

mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:04 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
Did it though? Didn’t the 20% require some rounding? Wasn’t it -19.8% or something? Maybe I’m a stickler for math but I kinda want a clean -20%+ :) .

Dec 24th close was 2351 and the high was 2931 on Sep 20. Or do we count intraday numbers?
VTSAX was 73.65 on Sep. 20th, 2018. It closed at 58.19 on Dec. 24th, 2018, a 21% drop.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

sambb
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by sambb » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:07 pm

its been such a nice run esp since Nov of 2016, but december 2018 may have been a very short bear market. Im not sure what has powered the market from end of 16 to now, but its nice to have. Jan 19 was strong and that helped. Economy seems to be doing well and hope it stays that way. Still worry about the bear in december, it will happen again.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by bhsince87 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:09 pm

sambb wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:07 pm
its been such a nice run esp since Nov of 2016, but december 2018 may have been a very short bear market. Im not sure what has powered the market from end of 16 to now, but its nice to have. Jan 19 was strong and that helped. Economy seems to be doing well and hope it stays that way. Still worry about the bear in december, it will happen again.
A lot of people considered 2015 to be a bear market as well. It was close.
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace." Samuel Adams

oragne lovre
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by oragne lovre » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:22 pm

Thanks for the reminder.
Happy 10th birthday to all stay-the-course Bogleheads!
Maybe I should ransack my tiny wine collection to find a 10-year-old bottle to celebrate tonight :D
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by SchruteB&B » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:25 pm

bhsince87 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:09 pm
sambb wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:07 pm
its been such a nice run esp since Nov of 2016, but december 2018 may have been a very short bear market. Im not sure what has powered the market from end of 16 to now, but its nice to have. Jan 19 was strong and that helped. Economy seems to be doing well and hope it stays that way. Still worry about the bear in december, it will happen again.
A lot of people considered 2015 to be a bear market as well. It was close.
I definitely consider 2011 a bear too. 19.4% and the credit downgrade made things seem real bearish.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by F150HD » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:38 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
+1

have been about 5-6 market corrections since 2009.

delrinson
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by delrinson » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:43 pm

Even though we technically entered a bear market it still feels like a 10 year bull market....And that we’re living on borrowed time.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:48 pm

delrinson wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:43 pm
Even though we technically entered a bear market it still feels like a 10 year bull market....And that we’re living on borrowed time.
That was the case back in 1996 for many as well. And yet the market kept going up for another four years.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Longtermgrowth » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:54 pm

All the healthy pullbacks along the way, along with that recent December 2018 bear, have me optimistic from this point forward. :sharebeer

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oldzey
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by oldzey » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:17 pm

What a difference a decade makes.

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Longtermgrowth » Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:20 am

oldzey wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:17 pm
What a difference a decade makes.

Image
Ok that chart changed my mind. Time to put more money in bonds :D

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F150HD
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by F150HD » Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:39 am

Opinion: This bull market is 10 years old? Try three months
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Mar 7, 2019 5:20 a.m. ET

Investors conveniently ignore bear markets that hit over the past decade


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2019-03-07

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by tennisplyr » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:31 am

...and I retired Feb, 2011...not bad :happy
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by dh » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:02 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
Boo!!!

Seriously, it really has been an amazing 10 year run. Any market historians here? How did the most recent 10 year runs, stack up against the markets best 10 year run? I am pretty sure the 90s rank up there (if not the best). Best to all Bogleheads! No more throwing cold water on the party :sharebeer

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Coltrane75 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:08 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either.

How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen:
This is a good point. How can it be declared that this is a 10 year milestone in the bull market when one cannot determine without some hindsight, whether or not we are still in the bull market started in 2009 or in a nascent bear market. It wasn't known in March 2009 that the bull market started in March 2009....

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by acegolfer » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:12 am

2015 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:41 pm
My only concern is this market, like all bull markets, has brought a lot of gamblers to the casino looking to strike it rich. History has repeatedly demonstrated that something wicked this way comes. It's just a matter of time. Lots of "students of investing" will be in for a world of hurt.
I'm not too concerned. Those gamblers went to crypto market. They don't have the patience for long term investments.

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corn18
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by corn18 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:13 am

It is what it is...

Image
Don't do something, just stand there!

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:20 am

corn18 wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:13 am
It is what it is...

Image
VTSAX was down 21% from its highs back in Dec., as I noted above.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Clever_Username » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:08 pm

Hmm... GE and AT&T performed the worst during that ten year period out of the full S&P 500? So much for stock selection by picking large, established utility companies.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_ | | I survived my first downturn and all I got was this signature line.

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:02 pm

Clever_Username wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:08 pm
Hmm... GE and AT&T performed the worst during that ten year period out of the full S&P 500? So much for stock selection by picking large, established utility companies.
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:39 pm
I became aware earlier of research which indicated that the largest companies in a country's stock market, as defined by market capitalization, tend to underperform the rest of the market going forward. But it wasn't until today that I came across such a dramatic example of this in action from Research Affiliates. This article concerned market bubbles, but this paragraph is interesting even out of that context.
At the beginning of 2000, the 10 largest market-cap tech stocks in the United States, collectively representing a 25% share of the S&P 500 Index—Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, IBM, AOL, Oracle, Dell, Sun, Qualcomm, and HP—did not live up to the excessively optimistic expectations. Over the next 18 years, not a single one beat the market: five produced positive returns, averaging 3.2% a year compounded, far lower than the market return, and two failed outright. Of the five that produced negative returns, the average outcome was a loss of 7.2% a year, or 12.6% a year less than the S&P 500.
emphasis added
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_u ... -what.html

I'm sure that someone has done something like this, but I would find it interesting to see the performance of the S&P 500 or total stock market minus the top 10 stocks by market cap over time.

I'll also be interested to see whether this trend continues into the future. I suspect that it will.
viewtopic.php?t=261716
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by El Greco » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:05 pm

Svensk Anga wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:33 am
I have been watching the personal performance tab at Vanguard as we count down to the anniversary of the bottom. It shows a total investment gain dollar figure for the last 10 years. Its very gratifying to see how far we have come.

Regarding those worst performers, it looks like it could be time to load up on natural resource stocks. That is, if Bogleheads did that sort of thing. :wink:
I still own several of those worst performers. Woo-hoo! :D

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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by Tigermoose » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:04 pm

delrinson wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:43 pm
Even though we technically entered a bear market it still feels like a 10 year bull market....And that we’re living on borrowed time.
I bet you are a real joy at parties. :D
Institutions matter

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oldzey
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Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Post by oldzey » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:40 am

Let's hope the next decade is as bullish as the last. :sharebeer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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