Worst December...Best January

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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

It pays to be greedy when others are fearful. Maybe someone need to invent the media-contrarian factor investing. :greedy
Best of luck to everyone forward!
heyyou
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by heyyou »

Due to my attributes, it was better to just ignore relative market levels, regardless of up or down. That took my emotions out of my investing.
alter
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by alter »

I'm up 14% on my VOO purchase 5 weeks ago 8-)
Thesaints
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Thesaints »

Worst December...Best January...Normal Volatility
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oldcomputerguy
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by oldcomputerguy »

alter wrote: Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:47 pm I'm up 14% on my VOO purchase 5 weeks ago 8-)
For what little it may be worth, I've been shoving some play money bucks into emerging markets over the past six weeks, and it's up almost 6% now. :beer
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

Thesaints wrote: Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:11 pm Worst December...Best January...Normal Volatility
I agree. The labels are just over the top :happy
2015
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by 2015 »

heyyou wrote: Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:43 pm Due to my attributes, it was better to just ignore relative market levels, regardless of up or down. That took my emotions out of my investing.
Well said. I believe I have those "attributes" as well. :wink:
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Electron
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Electron »

The strong January is being mentioned everywhere, but the two month returns are a different story and quite interesting.

Over the two month period, stock funds are typically showing small losses, while bond funds and International stock funds are showing gains.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund -1.34%
Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund -0.21%
Vanguard Large Cap Value Index Fund -2.64%
Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund -2.44%
Vanguard Wellington Fund - 0.59%

Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund +2.22%

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund +2.04% (NAV Only)
Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund +1.79% (NAV Only)
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund +1.14%
Electron
Corgitodd
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Corgitodd »

Didnt list Growth Index Fund
EnjoyIt
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by EnjoyIt »

Yes, in December we were below 25x. As of yesterday we are back to 25x. I feel better.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
J295
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by J295 »

It’s not always this simple. Next time it might be worst five-year period, followed by best two year period.

I’m a golfer. This is basically a poor drive on number one into the rough followed by a good recovery to get to the green in regulation. In that case, lots of golf left in a 72 hole tournament, not to mention lots of golf left in a career.
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

It is interesting how nothing fundamentally changed much, but the reactions of the market were violently polar opposites. I followed what I wrote in my IPS so my emotions did not affect my actions. However, it was educational to examine how I felt at different points in the last year. I have been investing since 2006 so this is nothing too new, but the low volatility and constant upward move in 2017 really made me forget. I have to admit, being aware of my emotions and still being able to execute what is in the IPS feels empowering. To me, that is better than “set it and forget it”. I have to thank the BH for that.
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Stinky
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Stinky »

The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
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Electron
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Electron »

Corgitodd wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:56 pm Didn't list Growth Index Fund
Morningstar shows VIGAX almost flat for the two months with just a tiny fractional percentage loss.
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Corgitodd
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Corgitodd »

Interesting, I though it would have done better, along the lines of Primecap.
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by livesoft »

Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:08 pm The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
As long as "stay the course" means rebalancing right into the teeth of fear and gloom about 20% drops.
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Electron
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Electron »

Corgitodd wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:16 am Interesting, I thought it would have done better, along the lines of Primecap.
The Large Cap Growth Index Fund did outperform Primecap over the two month period. My earlier post showed Primecap at -2.44%. The funds with a positive return had a plus sign in front of the number.
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samsdad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by samsdad »

2015 wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:56 pm
heyyou wrote: Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:43 pm Due to my attributes, it was better to just ignore relative market levels, regardless of up or down. That took my emotions out of my investing.
Well said. I believe I have those "attributes" as well. :wink:
+1
2015
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by 2015 »

livesoft wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:08 pm The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
As long as "stay the course" means rebalancing right into the teeth of fear and gloom about 20% drops.
Agreed! It's for this reason my ISP goes into detail regarding my philosophy on rebalancing during times of Armageddon. I want rebalancing during those times ingrained in my DNA as much as possible. In this regard, I have also positioned my finances in such a way as to support my bet the world will go on even when it appears certain to be coming to an end (this is a prediction I make with absolute certainty: at some point in the future it will seem as if the world is ending and no sane person would be in the stock market).
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by Stinky »

2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:08 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:08 pm The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
As long as "stay the course" means rebalancing right into the teeth of fear and gloom about 20% drops.
Agreed! It's for this reason my ISP goes into detail regarding my philosophy on rebalancing during times of Armageddon. I want rebalancing during those times ingrained in my DNA as much as possible. In this regard, I have also positioned my finances in such a way as to support my bet the world will go on even when it appears certain to be coming to an end (this is a prediction I make with absolute certainty: at some point in the future it will seem as if the world is ending and no sane person would be in the stock market).
Yes, that’s what I meant by “stay the course”.

The December hiccup was not enough to trigger rebalancing for me. But I expect that there will be more than one “end of the world” event in my investing future.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
2015
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by 2015 »

Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:48 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:08 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:08 pm The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
As long as "stay the course" means rebalancing right into the teeth of fear and gloom about 20% drops.
Agreed! It's for this reason my ISP goes into detail regarding my philosophy on rebalancing during times of Armageddon. I want rebalancing during those times ingrained in my DNA as much as possible. In this regard, I have also positioned my finances in such a way as to support my bet the world will go on even when it appears certain to be coming to an end (this is a prediction I make with absolute certainty: at some point in the future it will seem as if the world is ending and no sane person would be in the stock market).
Yes, that’s what I meant by “stay the course”.

The December hiccup was not enough to trigger rebalancing for me. But I expect that there will be more than one “end of the world” event in my investing future.
2008, which many saw as an EOTWAWKI event, wasn't a hiccup, but instead a bout of whooping cough from which many didn't recover. For many, "stay the course" got hacked right out of existence. :shock:
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:36 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:48 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:08 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:08 pm The last two months are an excellent example of why “stay the course” is the right approach to investing.
As long as "stay the course" means rebalancing right into the teeth of fear and gloom about 20% drops.
Agreed! It's for this reason my ISP goes into detail regarding my philosophy on rebalancing during times of Armageddon. I want rebalancing during those times ingrained in my DNA as much as possible. In this regard, I have also positioned my finances in such a way as to support my bet the world will go on even when it appears certain to be coming to an end (this is a prediction I make with absolute certainty: at some point in the future it will seem as if the world is ending and no sane person would be in the stock market).
Yes, that’s what I meant by “stay the course”.

The December hiccup was not enough to trigger rebalancing for me. But I expect that there will be more than one “end of the world” event in my investing future.
2008, which many saw as an EOTWAWKI event, wasn't a hiccup, but instead a bout of whooping cough from which many didn't recover. For many, "stay the course" got hacked right out of existence. :shock:
That is why it is important to use the smaller hiccups to built your stay-the-course muscle (whatever your “course” is)
2015
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by 2015 »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:04 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:36 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:48 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:08 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Yes, that’s what I meant by “stay the course”.

The December hiccup was not enough to trigger rebalancing for me. But I expect that there will be more than one “end of the world” event in my investing future.
2008, which many saw as an EOTWAWKI event, wasn't a hiccup, but instead a bout of whooping cough from which many didn't recover. For many, "stay the course" got hacked right out of existence. :shock:
That is why it is important to use the smaller hiccups to built your stay-the-course muscle (whatever your “course” is)
Oh that it were so! While I agree with you in principle, I'm afraid the 2008 era threads here demonstrate that it is not, and that staying the course may very well be much rarer than we had even hoped it to be.

I've come to the conclusion that when it comes to investing, personal finance, and microeconomics it ain't over until the very very end of the race. While I've positioned my finances in such a way as to be steeled from market movements through thorough risk mitigation, I'm convinced Lady Dominatrix Luck will always be the one to have the last whip crack as only she can bring the Winnerf's Checkered Flag down. This is to say that reality will always find a way to crush theory created from an inadequate cerebral abstract mental map.
pdavi21
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by pdavi21 »

This mean an average February is coming?
"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity." -Stephen Hawking
Topic Author
MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:10 pm
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:04 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:36 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:48 pm
2015 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:08 pm
Yes, that’s what I meant by “stay the course”.

The December hiccup was not enough to trigger rebalancing for me. But I expect that there will be more than one “end of the world” event in my investing future.
2008, which many saw as an EOTWAWKI event, wasn't a hiccup, but instead a bout of whooping cough from which many didn't recover. For many, "stay the course" got hacked right out of existence. :shock:
That is why it is important to use the smaller hiccups to built your stay-the-course muscle (whatever your “course” is)
Oh that it were so! While I agree with you in principle, I'm afraid the 2008 era threads here demonstrate that it is not, and that staying the course may very well be much rarer than we had even hoped it to be.

I've come to the conclusion that when it comes to investing, personal finance, and microeconomics it ain't over until the very very end of the race. While I've positioned my finances in such a way as to be steeled from market movements through thorough risk mitigation, I'm convinced Lady Dominatrix Luck will always be the one to have the last whip crack as only she can bring the Winnerf's Checkered Flag down. This is to say that reality will always find a way to crush theory created from an inadequate cerebral abstract mental map.
:D
I did not have an IPS in 2008-9 but I was only a couple of years into investing so it did not faze me, 100% equity until 2014-2015. I slowly came into my IPS in the last 2 or so years, now that the stake is a lot higher. I am hopeful I can stay tough but as you know, we all have our own threshold.
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nedsaid
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by nedsaid »

Its like dude, what happened to the bear market?
A fool and his money are good for business.
michaeljmroger
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by michaeljmroger »

Invested a lump sum in VTMSX about a month ago, and it’s up 12% as of today. Incredible!
minimalistmarc
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by minimalistmarc »

nedsaid wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:46 pm Its like dude, what happened to the bear market?
Dude, I lost my bear market
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

pdavi21 wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:14 pm This mean an average February is coming?
Fabulous, Flat or Flopping February?
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teacher
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Re: Worst December...Best January

Post by teacher »

Our IPS says to do RMD withdrawals in December. Thinking about revisiting that feature of our plan. :?
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