What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

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TheTimeLord
Posts: 6294
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:03 pm

chevca wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:28 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:44 pm
plantingourpennies wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:54 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:27 am
I hope someday to reach a point when I consider 20% nothing, but in my case I will doubt that will ever happen. I found 2018 worse than Black Monday because for a little while it reminded me of the market rhythm from back in 2008. I think the most unusual part is most people here seem not to realize we are still down 10%.
Not sure what you mean here-the dow was down %5.6, S&P was down %6.2 2018.
I measure from the September 20th close.
Well, that's useful....

What did you learn and feel about January to September 19th of 2018?
What the majority of us should know or hopefully learned in 2018 is it just doesn't matter the market is going to return what it is is going to return so just make sure you are managing your risk in a way appropriate to your situation and accept the outcome.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

heyyou
Posts: 3513
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:58 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by heyyou » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:33 pm

about the value of that information for the majority investors because it could definitely lead to behavioral mistakes.
Lemmings have trouble with that.

chevca
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Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:22 am

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by chevca » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:01 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:03 pm
chevca wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:28 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:44 pm
plantingourpennies wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:54 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:27 am
I hope someday to reach a point when I consider 20% nothing, but in my case I will doubt that will ever happen. I found 2018 worse than Black Monday because for a little while it reminded me of the market rhythm from back in 2008. I think the most unusual part is most people here seem not to realize we are still down 10%.
Not sure what you mean here-the dow was down %5.6, S&P was down %6.2 2018.
I measure from the September 20th close.
Well, that's useful....

What did you learn and feel about January to September 19th of 2018?
What the majority of us should know or hopefully learned in 2018 is it just doesn't matter the market is going to return what it is is going to return so just make sure you are managing your risk in a way appropriate to your situation and accept the outcome.
That we agree on. :sharebeer

saintsfan342000
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:46 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by saintsfan342000 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:14 pm

"Always remain invested" was a lesson I learned the hard way. The FA I was signing up with had us liquidate in early December 2017 to transfer assets his way. I didn't think it was a big deal. We were in cash for all but the last three days of the 12/17-1/18 tax cut melt up. Bought back in at just about the most expensive moment.

For that and several other reasons, I have already fired the same FA. In the process of taking my investments back, I have been absolutely certain to remain in the market (hence a thread I started about buying and selling on the same day).

michaeljc70
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Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by michaeljc70 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:59 pm

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. I already knew it but it was reinforced.

TimeTheMarket
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:49 am

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by TimeTheMarket » Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:34 pm

I learned very little in 2018. My last big education was 2008/9 when the market went to hell. I could have handled it better (I did some of my namesake, which of course ended up badly), but considering my age at the time did okay, mainly trusted those who said to buy in, so I kept doing it. I told myself I wouldn't be stupid again. Actually I'm happy to report that when the market crashed in December I not only didn't do anything about it but also was not even anxious about it, so I learned that I am able to stick to my plans.

TimeTheMarket
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:49 am

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by TimeTheMarket » Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:36 pm

saintsfan342000 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:14 pm
"Always remain invested" was a lesson I learned the hard way. The FA I was signing up with had us liquidate in early December 2017 to transfer assets his way. I didn't think it was a big deal. We were in cash for all but the last three days of the 12/17-1/18 tax cut melt up. Bought back in at just about the most expensive moment.

For that and several other reasons, I have already fired the same FA. In the process of taking my investments back, I have been absolutely certain to remain in the market (hence a thread I started about buying and selling on the same day).
Oh dang, that hurts. Sounds like at least you can blame him more than yourself. There are certainly people who started selling and bailed on Xmas eve and still aren't back in.

No matter what so many people still think they know best and can beat the market. Many are gamblers at heart.

Oakwood42
Posts: 184
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:48 pm
Location: Philadelphia

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by Oakwood42 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:50 pm

rh00p wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:26 pm
I learned not to watch CNBC. Again.
+1

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pezblanco
Posts: 613
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:02 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by pezblanco » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:03 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:17 am
carol-brennan wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:01 am
1. Market timing may be foolish, but you can have a better chance of success if you do not follow the herd but instead recognize when averages are extremely above or below historical figures. It was really tough to step aside during the runups in late 2017/early 2018, but doing so allowed me to come out with a gain in 2018 rather than a loss. Can I repeat this? Doubtful, but what I learned is that you do have to tune out the noise (positive or negative) and acknowledge actual data that aligns with your gut.
You got lucky. CAPE was considered "extremely above" historical figures long before early 2018.

And following your gut will almost always be a mistake in investing.

I'm partly glad it worked out for you this time, but I fear you may learn the wrong lesson from this, and market-time again in the future.

If so, I hope you get lucky the next time as well. Trusting your retirement portfolio to luck is probably not a good idea though.
And we have a winner! It was close between livesoft and Homer but Homer takes it for explicitly spelling it out in case it wasn't obvious enough. :D

n00b
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Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by n00b » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:19 pm

I'm in the 0% capital gains tax bracket and realized some capital gains in June. I learned not to do that so early in the year as December would have otherwise been a good time to realize some losses that I didn't want to cancel out gains in the same tax year.

GCD
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Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:11 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by GCD » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:32 pm

carol-brennan wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:01 am
With that preamble, what did you learn from the market in 2018?

Your personal lessons?
I didn't realize it was a bad year until I read about it here. I don't think there is really much of any lesson to be drawn from a single year of investing. That's not what it's about. I think if you are concerned about year-to-year returns you don't have a long enough view.

YMMV.

Dottie57
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Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by Dottie57 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:55 pm

I learned my asset allocation is fine and that I could live within my means in retirement.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:22 am

I should bet the house when it was low. Only if I knew it was the low point. Lol

pascalwager
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Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by pascalwager » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:16 am

I didn't enjoy the daily losses at the end of 2018 and I want to insulate myself psychologically from similar losses in the future because the unpleasant experience served no useful purpose.

In 2000 and 2008, I was insulated from negative portfolio dynamics and was in pre-retirement mode. I had an advisor, a sub-advisor, no home computer, and my accounts weren't online anyway. My advisor rebalanced quarterly and I received a statement. As a result, I only rarely experienced a very fleeting twinge of regret over the losses implied by the general market news. I had no contact with my sub-advisor during this period. My workplace deferred comp AA was automated, maximum bi-weekly contributions were continuous, and again, I only received a quarterly statement.

There were a few comments above about people using their gut to help make AA decisions. These gut feelings are caused by the brain, have tremendous evolutionary importance, but have no useful, positive function in passive, long-term investing. I want to reduce this gut response by reducing financial inputs to the brain. So, I'm going to pay less attention to the market in the future as I did, by necessity, in 2000 and 2008. I've already taken steps in this regard such as removing my spreadsheet from my tablet and leaving it only on my desktop. I'm now updating my spreadsheet on Friday only and am avoiding internet financial news as much as possible. I guess I'll rely on Vanguard account activity confirmation alert emails for fraud protection more than in the past. I may make more changes in the coming weeks as the learning process advances.

But, most importantly--starting now, and in the future--I want to be, and will be, a truly gut-less investor.

WildBill
Posts: 478
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:47 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

Post by WildBill » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:33 pm

Howdy

It reinforced my conviction on the benefits of tax loss harvesting and rebalancing.

I ended up with essentially the same level of assets, but with 100k in losses to carry forward. If that is not a free lunch I do not know what is.

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

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