It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

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livesoft
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It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:32 pm

The December "worst drop" has turned out to be a simple dip for a 60/40 portfolio.

The Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund with its 60/40 asset allocation has a 1-month total return of pretty close to 0.0% (it is -0.10%).

That is, if you were thinking of rebalancing, you don't have to. And if you were thinking of buying low, then it is too late. And if you were waiting for the correction before you bought, then you missed out again.

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retiringwhen
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:38 pm

I notice that Christmas Eve was the nadir, and let's just say it turned out to be a good day to invest early Christmas gifts.

Also at the close of 12/24 my portfolio signaled rebalance for the first time all year, I didn't hurry to do anything and by the 27th we were back in our bands.....

samsdad
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm

Uhh, who took over livesoft’s account?

So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?

You got that new crystal ball out for a spin?

If this is really you, you can prove it by finally revealing the rest of the secret sauce to your RBD strategy that you’ve never shared here. Only the real livesoft knows that. Till then I ain’t believing it’s really you.
Last edited by samsdad on Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

columbia
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by columbia » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm

Beware irrational exuberance. :(

samsdad
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:46 pm

“Dead cat bounce”

It’s not just a band name.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 pm

samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm
So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?
As you know, the RBD strategy just reacts to the immediate past. There is never a prediction made.

I don't know what happens next week or the week after. I do know that some things are on the table that will affect the stock market, but not in which direction the stock market might change. You will have to wait and see just like I have to wait and see.

My portfolio did hit another rebalancing band, so I will be selling equities in the near future if there is no RBD tomorrow.
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samsdad
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:51 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 pm
samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm
So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?
As you know, the RBD strategy just reacts to the immediate past. There is never a prediction made.

I don't know what happens next week or the week after. I do know that some things are on the table that will affect the stock market, but not in which direction the stock market might change. You will have to wait and see just like I have to wait and see.

My portfolio did hit another rebalancing band, so I will be selling equities in the near future if there is no RBD tomorrow.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:53 pm

For the S&P the high close in 2018 was 2,930.75. Today we closed at 2,574.41, so it will take a little more than an additional 13.8% to get back to where we were in late September. Also the high close in December was 2,790.37 so we are still a couple hundred points short of that. Also you cherry picked the dates missing the nearly 160 point dropout the beginning of the December but including the new year rally.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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retiringwhen
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:55 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:53 pm
For the S&P the high close in 2018 was 2,930.75. Today we closed at 2,574.41, so it will take a little more than an additional 13.8% to get back to where we were in late September. Also the high close in December was 2,790.37 so we are still a couple hundred points short of that also.
His comparison was for a "standard" 60/40 portfolio. In this scenario, Bonds did just what folks hope they do, they provided ballast and a bit of uplift for the portfolio so the month of DEC ended flat even with equities down......

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:56 pm

^Isn't it nice that your bond funds made a lot of money in December?

Also, I am posting about the 1-month return and not the December return.
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jebmke
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by jebmke » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:58 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:56 pm
^Isn't it nice that your bond funds made a lot of money in December?

Also, I am posting about the 1-month return and not the December return.
I thought everyone knew that interest rates had nowhere to go but up.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:59 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:55 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:53 pm
For the S&P the high close in 2018 was 2,930.75. Today we closed at 2,574.41, so it will take a little more than an additional 13.8% to get back to where we were in late September. Also the high close in December was 2,790.37 so we are still a couple hundred points short of that also.
His comparison was for a "standard" 60/40 portfolio. In this scenario, Bonds did just what folks hope they do, they provided ballast and a bit of uplift for the portfolio so the month of DEC ended flat even with equities down......
He started on 12/8, the market was down almost 160 points for the month by that point. So the whole December dip is not close to covered by the example.
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retiringwhen
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:05 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:59 pm
He started on 12/8, the market was down almost 160 points for the month by that point. So the whole December dip is not close to covered by the example.
still 1 month, just ended today I believe..... so yes, December itself was still negative.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:26 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:38 pm
I notice that Christmas Eve was the nadir, and let's just say it turned out to be a good day to invest early Christmas gifts.

Also at the close of 12/24 my portfolio signaled rebalance for the first time all year, I didn't hurry to do anything and by the 27th we were back in our bands.....
Primary reason it did not last too long are comments like yours (and also that the nadir was on Dec 24th).

Many people missed the opportunity to rebalance / market-time on Dec 24th:
- half day,
- christmas eve,
- sandwiched between weekend and holiday.

Most people probably did not even login to their computer before market closed on Dec 24th.
Last edited by AlphaLess on Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AlphaLess
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:27 pm

livesoft: choosing data to fit your conclusion?
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k3vb0t
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by k3vb0t » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:40 pm

What's better in the long run: catching the dip or not panicking and doing nothing during the dip?

I do take an irrationally large amount of satisfaction (in comparison to the overall benefit) that I rebalanced on January 3rd when VBTLX "peaked" and VTSAX and VTIAX jumped the following day. Especially considering those small percentage jumps were on less than 5% of my portfolio.

But hey, you take what you can get right?!

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by supersolo » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:51 pm

My 401K 3 yr return went from 130% down to 81% :annoyed

But no worries. I will doing what I do to maximize my investment.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:56 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:27 pm
livesoft: choosing data to fit your conclusion?
Yep, I'll get two threads for the price of one dip when the stock market gets back up to the Nov 30 level.
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bhsince87
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by bhsince87 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:00 pm

I waited a week to sell a fund in hopes that I could push some short term losses into 2019 and harvest them then.

Failed at that.

But the alternative isn't so bad either.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by triceratop » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:02 pm

samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm
Uhh, who took over livesoft’s account?

So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?

You got that new crystal ball out for a spin?

If this is really you, you can prove it by finally revealing the rest of the secret sauce to your RBD strategy that you’ve never shared here. Only the real livesoft knows that. Till then I ain’t believing it’s really you.
I don't understand. livesoft showed that the December drop is over. If the market drops again it won't be a continuation of the December drop because it is no longer December. It's really simple. :)
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venkman
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by venkman » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:09 pm

Interestingly*, VSMGX is still in a drawdown, since peaking in late January 2018.


*not necessarily THAT interesting.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:09 pm

triceratop wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:02 pm
samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm
Uhh, who took over livesoft’s account?

So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?

You got that new crystal ball out for a spin?

If this is really you, you can prove it by finally revealing the rest of the secret sauce to your RBD strategy that you’ve never shared here. Only the real livesoft knows that. Till then I ain’t believing it’s really you.
I don't understand. livesoft showed that the December drop is over. If the market drops again it won't be a continuation of the December drop because it is no longer December. It's really simple. :)
That is my take too!

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Sandtrap » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:11 pm

Some context for the "December Dip/Drop" in a bigger picture.
VBIAX Vanguard Balanced Index Fund over the past 12 months. :|

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:13 pm

Fans of portfoliovisualizer should note that it uses month-end data and not intra-month data. At least the current version will never let one know what a set of portfolios would have done if they had rebalanced on 12/24 or any intra-month RBDs.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:35 pm

The S&P ended 2017 at 2,673.61.
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samsdad
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:26 am

Dottie57 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:09 pm
triceratop wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:02 pm
samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:42 pm
Uhh, who took over livesoft’s account?

So, “livesoft” what happens next week and the week after that?

You got that new crystal ball out for a spin?

If this is really you, you can prove it by finally revealing the rest of the secret sauce to your RBD strategy that you’ve never shared here. Only the real livesoft knows that. Till then I ain’t believing it’s really you.
I don't understand. livesoft showed that the December drop is over. If the market drops again it won't be a continuation of the December drop because it is no longer December. It's really simple. :)
That is my take too!
Lol. Yes, the “December” drop is over. I guess livesoft is off the hook for revealing the secret RBD ingredients.

However, if he tells us that the upcoming February market is going to be great, I’m gonna wonder, cause the real livesoft knows better.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by alfaspider » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:23 am

samsdad wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:46 pm
“Dead cat bounce”

It’s not just a band name.
These sayings are popular during a market downturn. Same silliness with "catching a falling knife." Sure, they sound colorful, but they provide no insight as to what the market might do. I recall a lot of "dead cat bounce" calls back in '09 after the market recovered off its bottom.

The market has gone up after a sharp downturn. It might keep going up, it might not. Nobody knows.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Toons » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:26 am

2008-09
Was a "dip"
Just a more opportunistic dip
They are all dips

:happy
Last edited by Toons on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Toons » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:28 am

delete
Last edited by Toons on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by aristotelian » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:28 am

bhsince87 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:00 pm
I waited a week to sell a fund in hopes that I could push some short term losses into 2019 and harvest them then.

Failed at that.

But the alternative isn't so bad either.
I did the same thing but I was lucky enough to catch some losses still left on the morning of Jan 2. I harvested some on the morning of Dec 26 but I figured there was no way the losses would disappear by Jan 1, and in fact, it was more likely that the market would be down even more!
Last edited by aristotelian on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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goingup
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by goingup » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:35 am

Mid and late December turned out to be a good time for all dividends to auto-reinvest.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:39 am

I called it on December 26, 2018 at 12:04 PM EDT.
J G Bankerton wrote:
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This is it; my bots have not executed a buy order today. Not even close.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by overthought » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:33 am

k3vb0t wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:40 pm
What's better in the long run: catching the dip or not panicking and doing nothing during the dip?
By some great stroke of fortune I was online the morning of 24 Dec.
First-ever tax loss harvest was a resounding success, the harvested lots show gains of 6-10% today 8-)

Other than that, no change.

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Alexa9
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Alexa9 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:37 am

The December drop is over, sure. Not that helpful. January and the rest of the year is anyone's guess.

JoeRetire
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:40 am

The December drop is over? Let me check....

... turns out you are correct! It's January!

20-20 hindsight is fun.

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David Jay
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by David Jay » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:50 am

Nice bookend to this post: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=262276
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by H-Town » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:29 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:32 pm
That is, if you were thinking of rebalancing, you don't have to. And if you were thinking of buying low, then it is too late. And if you were waiting for the correction before you bought, then you missed out again.
Good timing on PSA.

As always, set automatic contributions. If you have leftover from monthly cash flows, kindly buy more ETF's. We, as a collective group of investors who owns the entire stock market, will thank you for your contribution to the cause.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:42 pm

We are not fully recovered from last years dip yet. Can't tell the future. Nobody can tell.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by lukestuckenhymer » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:45 pm

Pride comes before a fall... Bogleheads threads aren't exempt from this mantra.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Jags4186 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:46 pm

I certainly noticed. Rebalanced back to my IPS on 1/2/19 which means I bought a bunch of stocks.

Cheers!

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by H-Town » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:11 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:42 pm
We are not fully recovered from last years dip yet. Can't tell the future. Nobody can tell.
Here is my prophecy: the future is bright. Take your farm and bet on it.

:mrgreen: Why else would we save for the future?

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:16 pm

lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:45 pm
Pride comes before a fall... Bogleheads threads aren't exempt from this mantra.
Yep, and Pride comes before a gain, too. It doesn't discriminate either way at all.
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zonto
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by zonto » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:27 pm

This total return graph could also be substituted with that of the total international stock market index and the same conclusion could be drawn over the same time period. Diversification is a wonderful thing isn't it?
“Diversification is about accepting good enough while missing out on great but avoiding terrible.” - Ben Carlson

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:43 pm

supersolo wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:51 pm
My 401K 3 yr return went from 130% down to 81% :annoyed

But no worries. I will doing what I do to maximize my investment.
Most of this appears to be due to a change in your starting point, the 130% not only had a 2018 high in it but also a 2015-2016 low. We haven’t lost 38% return today.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:44 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:43 pm
supersolo wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:51 pm
My 401K 3 yr return went from 130% down to 81% :annoyed

But no worries. I will doing what I do to maximize my investment.
How did you manage such a large loss?
Leveraged?

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:50 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:44 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:43 pm
supersolo wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:51 pm
My 401K 3 yr return went from 130% down to 81% :annoyed

But no worries. I will doing what I do to maximize my investment.
How did you manage such a large loss?
Leveraged?
In a 401K though. Upon thinking I’m guessing starting part moved from a bear market low to a higher high.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tennisplyr » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:17 pm

Dips and spikes are totally arbitrary...depends on what time periods you're looking at.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:24 pm

tennisplyr wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:17 pm
Dips and spikes are totally arbitrary...depends on what time periods you're looking at.
This is totally true if you make no transactions in your accounts.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by retiringwhen » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:34 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:24 pm
tennisplyr wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:17 pm
Dips and spikes are totally arbitrary...depends on what time periods you're looking at.
This is totally true if you make no transactions in your accounts.
Or tax-loss harvest in a market neutral manner! BTW, my VTV/VUG split between IRA and taxable is now in the green.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by triceratop » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:29 pm

I noticed that when I went to 100% equities it was timed quite well. But I suppose now I am bored because I am going to be building up my bond cushion a bit now. Dumping cash into Intermediate-term treasury isn't very exciting.
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