2019 Hedge Fund Contest

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:41 pm

YoungBogle wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:54 pm
Is there anyway you can add a "control" entry (SPY,VOO,etc.) to the Google Doc to see who is above and below the index?
Look for the fund “I don’t know and I don’t care” by benchmark. This owns a total stock market etf and is up about 11% currently.

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mokaThought
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:25 pm

Freeze AMD. Thanks!

If one of you could report another instance of food poisoning at Chipotle (CMG), that would be helpful as well. :)
October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. —Mark Twain

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:44 pm

Sears is opening stores again. Growth stock? :twisted:

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:31 am

Please freeze COHR and USCR.

Thank you.

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hornet96
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hornet96 » Tue May 07, 2019 1:11 pm

Just a heads-up that my lone short pick, NVAX, is holding a special meeting tomorrow in order to approve a 1-for 20 reverse split:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 853_8k.htm
NVAX wrote:As previously announced, the Company has scheduled a Special Meeting of the Company’s stockholders on May 8, 2019 (the “Special Meeting”) to consider a proposal to effect a reverse split of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock at a ratio of 1-for-20 (the “Reverse Stock Split”). If approved at the Special Meeting, the Reverse Stock Split would be expected to have the effect of increasing the bid price for a share of the Company’s common stock.
Assuming it is approved (it almost certainly will be), my opening price of $2.26 will thus need to be adjusted to account for the reverse split. I intend to keep it open after the reverse split, expecting further declines in the stock price from there (which is typically what happens after a reverse split).

Noting this now while I have an 81% gain, to document whether my active management decisions will continue to pay off. :mrgreen:

Walkure
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Walkure » Wed May 08, 2019 5:28 pm

Just a note that the SGYPQ ticker in the "crypt-o-currencies" fund is not updating, causing a null result in the table.

Also, we the officers of the all-long "If you can't beat 'em, buy 'em" fund would like to take this opportunity to note our excellent performance in Q1 2019, and to reassure our investors that both our carefully screened selections have plenty of room for continued growth in the coming months. We would also like to thank Russell the Stock-Picking SquirrelTM for not biting our technical analyst on the hand afterwards. Part of our commitment to keeping fees (slightly) below industry standard depends upon our continued low medical expenses and the fact that Russell is paid in acorns which, amongst other commodities, remain a contrarian asset class...
:sharebeer

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hornet96
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hornet96 » Thu May 09, 2019 11:05 am

hornet96 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 1:11 pm
Just a heads-up that my lone short pick, NVAX, is holding a special meeting tomorrow in order to approve a 1-for 20 reverse split:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 853_8k.htm
And, as expected, it was approved today, and will begin trading at the split-adjusted price tomorrow morning (May 10th):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novavax- ... 00699.html

Thus, effective tomorrow, I believe my opening share price of $2.26 will need to be adjusted to $45.20 ($2.26 x 20 = $45.20).

The Shortcut Fund management team is extremely proud of our ability to bring such incredible value to our shareholders, and is looking forward to expected further declines in the value of NVAX subsequent to the reverse stock split. Our in-depth research and forward-looking analytics consist entirely of reviewing Seeking Alpha short picks in January for the forthcoming year, which is then combined with our management team's industry leading gut feelings about the stock after about 10 minutes of reading. While future performance cannot be guaranteed, we are re-affirming our strong sell rating on NVAX given its precarious situation after its failed ResVax clinical trials, limited cash on-hand with a high cash burn rate, and limited options for accessing new sources of capital, particularly after this reverse split.

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Mon May 13, 2019 9:15 am

Boo yah! Spray fentanyl and cannabinoid maker INSY may be filing for bankruptcy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-insy ... SKCN1SH04D

Up In Smoke is agnostic on macroeconomic trends. However, we have full confidence in the ability of our skilled managers to identify overvalued stocks, even in a bull market. We look forward to continuing our record of overperformance, net of fees. We continue to be short INSY due to excessive valuation of its cannabis products, increased regulatory scrutiny of the opioid market, and pending litigation. While peer funds in the aggressive-short sector (such as The Shortcut Fund) have achieved similar results, we believe trends now favor Up In Smoke, and our picks will continue to reward investors in the Q3 and Q4.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue May 21, 2019 10:30 pm

Congrats to Tanelorn on becoming solvent. :happy The Sears shorts are having their day!

Now if someone could just make the market fall out of love with Netflix. It's a horrible business with a nice stock (so far). Oh, the life of a short seller!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:02 pm

Walkure wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 5:28 pm
Just a note that the SGYPQ ticker in the "crypt-o-currencies" fund is not updating, causing a null result in the table.
Thanks. After first getting delisted and then filing for bankruptcy, things have not been going well for them and MadPunster's short pick has played out superbly. The most recent update was that effective May 1st, all shares have been cancelled, so they no longer trade at all. However, given their assets where purchased and there seems to be some expected recovery net to the common shareholders, I closed out the short position at the last trade price of $0.0064 (less than a penny) - congratulations for the 97% gain to Crypto-o-Currencies fund investors. Having read their bankruptcy filings, it appears that this last trade price is probably a little higher than shareholders are likely to get, but given these things tend to take years to finalize all the costs and make the last distributions to shareholders, closing it out at the last market price seems good enough for contest purposes.
SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:31 am
Please freeze COHR and USCR.
Nice 48% and 28% gains on your long picks, respectively. In case you wanted to feel good about your market timing, COHR has given back nearly all their gains for the year (-45% or so from your sell), while USCR is only up modestly since then (+5% more).
mokaThought wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:25 pm
Freeze AMD. Thanks!
Sorry to have overlooked this, done as of Apr 5th, first market close after your request, locking in a 41% gain. Good timing also, as AMD is 8% lower currently.

LadyGeek's successful exit of MXWL is looking well timed also. Although the stock merger was eventually completed after numerous delays, given the merger was entirely in exchange for Tesla stock rather than cash and the subsequent TSLA stock performance has been quite poor, taking profits was the best course of action. My estimates suggest that the current value of MXWL shares would be only around $3.50, still well above the initial $2.50ish at the start of the year, but well below LadyGeek's exit at over $4.50, earning Lagrange Point investors nearly a 40% higher return than continuing to hold the successor shares.

Speaking of mergers, MadPunster's VTL stock was taken over by a private company via a reverse merger, together with a 40x reverse split, and now trades under the new ticker IMUX. Original Vital Therapies shareholders only own about 10% of the new company, so in some sense it's a new stock at this point.

Apologies for the lack of updates. I hope I got everything, if not, please reply or PM and I'll fix any remaining issues. Here are the current results:

Current standings - 2019 hedge fund contest

Congrats to hornet96 for his excellent Novovax short (NVAX), currently up 87% and in first place with his sole short pick as this biotech high flier has failed yet another drug trial. Also with an excellent showing, aristotelian is currently up 83% and close on his heels in second place with another sole short pick, this time INSYS Therapeutics (INSY). That company has been warning about being driven into bankruptcy by all the lawsuits related to their opioid sales tactics. The convictions for bribery and racketeering against the executives can't have helped either!
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:32 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:20 pm

I would also note that my long pick of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL) is currently trailing hornet96 by 0.28%.

When going for win/lose, place it all on black. Or red.
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mokaThought
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought » Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:35 pm

Freeze JNJ. Yeah, it's a loss, but it's a new low price on a short. I was betting on that talcum powder lawsuit making hay. :P
October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. —Mark Twain

honduranhurricane
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by honduranhurricane » Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:56 am

Wow, I forgot about this, very unlike me.

Can we close out the WM long. Trading at the higher end of historical valuation.

Come on Sears,,,stop delaying the inevitable...

overthought
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by overthought » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:38 am

It's been a wild ride for the Retail Me Not fund this year... down as much as 30% at times... but has now clawed its way up to 6th place with a solid 32% gain!

(recording for posterity in case it all goes up in smoke)

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hornet96
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hornet96 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:04 am

Congrats to the "Up in Smoke" fund, managed by aristotelian, with his lone short pick, which filed for bankruptcy due to its role in the opioid crisis.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insys ... yptr=yahoo

The Up in Smoke fund is now right on the heels my my first place Shortcut Fund, which certainly makes the contest interesting heading into the second half of the year! This is why I didn't close out my position yet, as I had a feeling I'd need to squeeze that orange as much as possible in a contest full of expert Boglehead fund managers! :sharebeer

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hornet96
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hornet96 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:00 am

hornet96 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:04 am
The Up in Smoke fund is now right on the heels my my first place Shortcut Fund, which certainly makes the contest interesting heading into the second half of the year!
And just like that, Up in Smoke has moved into 1st place as of the moment. :shock:

The Shortcut Fund managers still have their work cutout for them! :mrgreen:

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:00 pm

mokaThought wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:35 pm
Freeze JNJ. Yeah, it's a loss, but it's a new low price on a short. I was betting on that talcum powder lawsuit making hay. :P
honduranhurricane wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:56 am
Can we close out the WM long. Trading at the higher end of historical valuation.
Both closed as of June 3rd, as requested. Good timing moka on covering that JNJ, it's up over 5% this past week.

bgf
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by bgf » Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:22 pm

one of my holdings, EBIX, dropped by as much as 20% today, and absolutely nobody knows why. not even the company, which issued this press release.

https://www.ebix.com/press-release/ebix ... g-activity

"it is not aware of any news, events or tariffs that would negatively impact its financial and insurance exchanges and global operations. Nor its aware of any news or events that would justify the abnormal trading activity of its common stock today.

Ebix remains confident in its growth outlook for 2019 and its ability to achieve its goal of reaching greater than $800 million in annualized quarterly revenues by the fourth quarter of 2019."

Is this the 'efficient market' at work or proof that markets are self-aware and subject to extreme volatility for little or no reason?

Also, if you don't think you can stomach at least this much volatility in one of your holdings then you probably should own it.

carry on

:sharebeer
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:02 am

My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen?

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:23 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:02 am
My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen?
It’s trading today as INSYQ, a new ticker because it went bankrupt and got delisted. I’ll update the spreadsheet and you can continue to hold your position (or close it) as you like. Last price was about $0.20, down by 30% or so from yesterday.

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:47 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:23 pm
aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:02 am
My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen?
It’s trading today as INSYQ, a new ticker because it went bankrupt and got delisted. I’ll update the spreadsheet and you can continue to hold your position (or close it) as you like. Last price was about $0.20, down by 30% or so from yesterday.
That sounds good, please freeze!

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:14 pm

Please freeze MHK. Calling a top as all my longs are frozen.

overthought
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by overthought » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:28 am

overthought wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:38 am
It's been a wild ride for the Retail Me Not fund this year... down as much as 30% at times... but has now clawed its way up to 6th place with a solid 32% gain!

(recording for posterity in case it all goes up in smoke)
The ride continues... 5th place at 48% gain. Gonna be hard to beat "up in smoke" at this point, tho!

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:30 pm

overthought wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:28 am
The ride continues... 5th place at 48% gain. Gonna be hard to beat "up in smoke" at this point, tho!
Hornet96 still has a great shot! The NVAX short was getting uncomfortably close for a few weeks there. I was starting to regret not letting INSY go all the way to zero. Good luck to all trying to catch me :)

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hornet96
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hornet96 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:47 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:30 pm
overthought wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:28 am
The ride continues... 5th place at 48% gain. Gonna be hard to beat "up in smoke" at this point, tho!
Hornet96 still has a great shot! The NVAX short was getting uncomfortably close for a few weeks there. I was starting to regret not letting INSY go all the way to zero. Good luck to all trying to catch me :)
Yes, it was getting close! My exit price to overtake the Up in Smoke fund is targeted at $2.32 or below, which would mean a >65% drop is needed in the NVAX share price from where we are today. Certainly possible, but now we only have about 90 trading days left in the year for that to occur. They recently announced that a new analysis of the data from their failed RSV clinical trial shows evidence of reducing pneumonia tied to RSV in infants, which they believe could lead to a pathway to marketing the drug anyway. This announcement seems to be what is currently propping up their stock price as of late. Whether or not the market continues to believe that, who knows. Good luck to all the rest of the contest! :beer

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:33 pm

I shorted Netflix today in my non-spreadsheet portfolio, mainly because I wanted to know what the broker would charge me to loan shares and I couldn't find the answer anywhere. Sure, I could have called support, but my way is more fun. :twisted:

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:18 am

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:33 pm
I shorted Netflix today in my non-spreadsheet portfolio, mainly because I wanted to know what the broker would charge me to loan shares and I couldn't find the answer anywhere. Sure, I could have called support, but my way is more fun. :twisted:
NFLX is easy to borrow and has been all year. If you PM me which broker, I could give you a better answer, but it should be somewhere between 0-1% annually.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:25 am

Please close out (freeze) Wrecked Capital's short position in Macy's (M). Our shareholder's are quite satisfied with a nearly 50% gain.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:30 pm

hornet96 wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:47 pm
Yes, it was getting close! My exit price to overtake the Up in Smoke fund is targeted at $2.32 or below, which would mean a >65% drop is needed in the NVAX share price from where we are today. Certainly possible, but now we only have about 90 trading days left in the year for that to occur. They recently announced that a new analysis of the data from their failed RSV clinical trial shows evidence of reducing pneumonia tied to RSV in infants, which they believe could lead to a pathway to marketing the drug anyway. This announcement seems to be what is currently propping up their stock price as of late. Whether or not the market continues to believe that, who knows. Good luck to all the rest of the contest! :beer
NVAX is getting close to its YTD low. Bankruptcy could be coming soon. This is going to be an interesting couple of months. I do wish I had let INSY (now INSYQ) keep going to zero.

dumb_luck
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by dumb_luck » Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:51 pm

Please freeze PCG. I'm done playing with fire.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:57 pm

dumb_luck wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:51 pm
Please freeze PCG. I'm done playing with fire.
Wakka wakka. Don't forget to tip your server.

Walkure
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Walkure » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:39 pm

Could we see those long AAPL beat the shorts' 100% max upside by the end of the year?

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:09 pm

Walkure wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:39 pm
Could we see those long AAPL beat the shorts' 100% max upside by the end of the year?
It sure is getting interesting. 100% long AAPL was a gutsy call!

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Portfolio7
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:25 pm

This is interesting. Just did it real quick, but if I'm right, the sum of the long positions, open and close, is a return of 18.5% YTD - assuming an equal % was invested in each. That's not too far from actual YTD returns. I didn't bother with the shorts, the sea of red dissuaded me.
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