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Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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hdas
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Post by hdas »

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staycalm
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by staycalm »

50/50 stock to bond. 50/50 US to international broad market indexes. So in good BH fashion I'm prepared for "the Bounce" or for "the Whatever" cause nobody knows nuthin' :happy
metalworking
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by metalworking »

I honestly don't believe you can predict the market and am staying the course but if I was a betting person I sure as hell wouldn't be betting on a bounce. I bet you are a glass half full person :D Anyway i hope you are right.
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Nicolas
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Nicolas »

Investor sentiment is near a five year low per AAII. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inves ... ear_spread
Last edited by Nicolas on Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:06 am, edited 3 times in total.
livesoft
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by livesoft »

I've lost all faith in the OP's numbers. I don't even know what all those digits to right of the decimal points mean. I do know there are too many of them. Maybe even some of the numbers are affected by dividends, too.
Last edited by livesoft on Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mister A
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Mister A »

Well, if you catch that dead cat, cuddle him close I guess.
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hdas
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ge1
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by ge1 »

I agree there should be a good bounce soon. I don’t expect it to last though, if anything I will use a good bounce to buy puts on the S&P again.
marcopolo
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by marcopolo »

Way too many gleeful posts cheering further declines and boasting about buying on sale.
I have no idea what the market will do in the future, but I don't think we have capitulation yet.
But, you don't really need capitulation if this just garden variety correction as opposed to more sustained downturn.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Nova1967
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Nova1967 »

Too much bottom fishing.
Hope for the best plan for the worst.
OkieIndexer
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by OkieIndexer »

marcopolo wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:02 pm Way too many gleeful posts cheering further declines and boasting about buying on sale.
I have no idea what the market will do in the future, but I don't think we have capitulation yet.
But, you don't really need capitulation if this just garden variety correction as opposed to more sustained downturn.
I don't think "capitulation" exists, or at least there's no way to reliably recognize it. A made-up term by the financial media & CNBC. I thought 10/10/2008 HAD to be capitulation with the VIX at 76 and the S&P down -28% in six days. Turns out it was another -21% down.

10/29/1929 must have looked like capitulation too. Had to be.
"In bull markets, people say 'The more risk I take, the greater my return.' But when people aren't afraid of risk, they'll accept risk without being compensated." -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
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goingup
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by goingup »

If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/1 ... -down-big/.

From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the ensuing 12-month time frames don’t offer much consolation following a crushing down quarter. Just 3 out of the 13 periods on this list saw positive returns going out one year. Over 60% saw positive returns over 3 years while almost 80% were positive 5 years out."
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dwickenh
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by dwickenh »

I see a pattern, er trend, er something that may repeat.....
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postcryptoafterlife
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by postcryptoafterlife »

goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:21 pm If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/1 ... -down-big/.

From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the ensuing 12-month time frames don’t offer much consolation following a crushing down quarter. Just 3 out of the 13 periods on this list saw positive returns going out one year. Over 60% saw positive returns over 3 years while almost 80% were positive 5 years out."
Did the article change? I don't see the quote you referenced. In fact, it seems like the forward performance 1 year following these "bad quarters" has a good chance of being positive on average.
HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE »

I own 3 out of the 4 biggest losers (in the form of ISCF, DEMSX, POAGX). :oops:
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SpartanFan
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by SpartanFan »

dwickenh wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:30 pm I see a pattern, er trend, er something that may repeat.....
+1
"There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in" - Leonard Cohen (RIP)
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willthrill81
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by willthrill81 »

Nicolas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:25 pm Investor sentiment is near a five year low per AAII. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inves ... ear_spread
At the extremes, that's historically been a very good contrarian indicator.

To the OP's point, given that we are almost in bear territory (i.e. nearly 20% from market highs), yet all of the economic fundamentals are still very solid, I suspect that we will indeed see a 'bounce' (i.e. fairly quick recovery), especially once trade tensions and concerns over the Fed subside. But I'm not basing any of my investments around this suspicion of mine. I'm following my strategy as laid out in my IPS.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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goingup
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by goingup »

postcryptoafterlife wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:08 pm
goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:21 pm If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/1 ... -down-big/.

From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the ensuing 12-month time frames don’t offer much consolation following a crushing down quarter. Just 3 out of the 13 periods on this list saw positive returns going out one year. Over 60% saw positive returns over 3 years while almost 80% were positive 5 years out."
Did the article change? I don't see the quote you referenced. In fact, it seems like the forward performance 1 year following these "bad quarters" has a good chance of being positive on average.
Yes! The article changed and did a complete 180 on the conclusions of subsequent performance following a "crushing quarter". It's disappointing that Ben Carlson didn't even issue a notification of revision or update. Poor journalistic practice. I won't be referencing his blog again. :thumbsdown
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hdas
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Post by hdas »

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herpfinance
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by herpfinance »

I predict that we will have a bounce in the near future. However, it may go in another direction than expected.
"The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists" - Benjamin Graham
ihelosec
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by ihelosec »

hdas wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:16 pm
goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:12 pm
postcryptoafterlife wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:08 pm
goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:21 pm If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/1 ... -down-big/.

From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the ensuing 12-month time frames don’t offer much consolation following a crushing down quarter. Just 3 out of the 13 periods on this list saw positive returns going out one year. Over 60% saw positive returns over 3 years while almost 80% were positive 5 years out."
Did the article change? I don't see the quote you referenced. In fact, it seems like the forward performance 1 year following these "bad quarters" has a good chance of being positive on average.
Yes! The article changed and did a complete 180 on the conclusions of subsequent performance following a "crushing quarter". It's disappointing that Ben Carlson didn't even issue a notification of revision or update. Poor journalistic practice. I won't be referencing his blog again. :thumbsdown
Well, he is not a journalist. Just another merchant, using the blog, social media, share stats approach to raising assets in order to charge fee for Ritholz.
The forward performance data in the charts significantly changed too!

https://web.archive.org/web/20181223151 ... -down-big/
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Dottie57 »

metalworking wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:18 pm I honestly don't believe you can predict the market and am staying the course but if I was a betting person I sure as hell wouldn't be betting on a bounce. I bet you are a glass half full person :D Anyway i hope you are right.
I don’t see a bounce either. Too mch craziness and uncertainty in the news.
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by juliewongferra »

hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:05 pm
livesoft wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:42 pm I've lost all faith in the OP's numbers. I don't even know what all those digits to right of the decimal points mean. I do know there are too many of them. Maybe even some of the numbers are affected by dividends, too.
Mr. Livesoft,
Numbers are just the percentage changes in the indicated timeframe. So -0.19 == -19%

The numbers are good. I use a program and download div-adjusted data from tiingo.com.
livesoft is not a man! livesoft is a female!

cheers,
jwf
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randomguy
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by randomguy »

herpfinance wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:15 pm I predict that we will have a bounce in the near future. However, it may go in another direction than expected.
We will have a bounce in the next quarter. The question is how high it bounces AND where it lands after that bounce. Up 10% and down 20% isn't exactly some unheard of event. We tend to think of 2000-2 as 1 big down market. It wasn't. We dropped to about 1000 after 9/11. The markets then rallied about 10% until the end of the year. And then dropped another 20%. Look at 2008 and their were similiar bounces where after 10% drops stocks bounce up and then drop.

15% drops happen roughly every 3 years. If the market bounces back nobody remembers them. So far we have gotten the 50% crashes every 25 or so (starting around 1920). Everyone remembers those. Is this current 15% crash going to turn into a 50% or bounce back and be quickly forgotton? Who knows.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

I'm afraid, OP, you assume there will be a bounce. We don't, and can't, know what will happen in the future. That's not to say any of us shouldn't make rational plans. It is to say we shouldn't make unwarranted assumptions.
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hdas
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Post by hdas »

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jayoco
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by jayoco »

A bounce?

You mean....like the one everyone said was coming during the October '08 selloff.
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by slick_dealer_05 »

Scaramucci said on fox and friends that bounce will be today (watch the last minute of the clip) -
https://video.foxnews.com/v/59832169100 ... show-clips
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by aspirit »

juliewongferra wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:09 am
hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:05 pm
livesoft wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:42 pm I've lost all faith in the OP's numbers. I don't even know what all those digits to right of the decimal points mean. I do know there are too many of them. Maybe even some of the numbers are affected by dividends, too.
Mr. Livesoft,
Numbers are just the percentage changes in the indicated timeframe. So -0.19 == -19%

The numbers are good. I use a program and download div-adjusted data from tiingo.com.
livesoft is not a man! livesoft is a female!
cheers,
jwf
:| really? :wink: I was under the impression LS was male but suspected otherwise.
LS :P what say you?

I'd bet emale.
Set hdas ..straight :happy

Bounce@1500 is my guess. :shock:
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munemaker
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by munemaker »

hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:58 pm I believe we are going to get a nice bounce soon.
Just to be clear, I would never do this myself. I am strictly a buy-and-hold, stay-the-course guy. Just answering the question, how to prepare for the bounce.

Image
Last edited by munemaker on Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hdas
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Post by hdas »

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jayoco
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by jayoco »

Good luck timing that one.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by JonnyDVM »

You forgot microcap OP. BRSIX. Ouch.
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hdas
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Post by hdas »

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Chuffly
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Chuffly »

phitchow wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:45 pm
hdas wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:16 pm
goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:12 pm
postcryptoafterlife wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:08 pm
goingup wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:21 pm If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/1 ... -down-big/.

From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the ensuing 12-month time frames don’t offer much consolation following a crushing down quarter. Just 3 out of the 13 periods on this list saw positive returns going out one year. Over 60% saw positive returns over 3 years while almost 80% were positive 5 years out."
Did the article change? I don't see the quote you referenced. In fact, it seems like the forward performance 1 year following these "bad quarters" has a good chance of being positive on average.
Yes! The article changed and did a complete 180 on the conclusions of subsequent performance following a "crushing quarter". It's disappointing that Ben Carlson didn't even issue a notification of revision or update. Poor journalistic practice. I won't be referencing his blog again. :thumbsdown
Well, he is not a journalist. Just another merchant, using the blog, social media, share stats approach to raising assets in order to charge fee for Ritholz.
The forward performance data in the charts significantly changed too!

https://web.archive.org/web/20181223151 ... -down-big/
He did explain what happened on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/ ... 06976?s=20
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willthrill81
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by willthrill81 »

munemaker wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:45 pm
hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:58 pm I believe we are going to get a nice bounce soon.
Just to be clear, I would never do this myself. I am strictly a buy-and-hold, stay-the-course guy. Just answering the question, how to prepare for the bounce.

Image
So how does one differentiate a dead cat bounce from a real recovery?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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FIREchief
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by FIREchief »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:22 pm
munemaker wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:45 pm
hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:58 pm I believe we are going to get a nice bounce soon.
Just to be clear, I would never do this myself. I am strictly a buy-and-hold, stay-the-course guy. Just answering the question, how to prepare for the bounce.

Image
So how does one differentiate a dead cat bounce from a real recovery?
Simple. You just wait a while and look in the rear view mirror. Isn't that how the "experts" always do it?
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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munemaker
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by munemaker »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:22 pm
munemaker wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:45 pm
hdas wrote: Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:58 pm I believe we are going to get a nice bounce soon.
Just to be clear, I would never do this myself. I am strictly a buy-and-hold, stay-the-course guy. Just answering the question, how to prepare for the bounce.
So how does one differentiate a dead cat bounce from a real recovery?
Not being a trader, I don't know for sure. I would guess maybe technical analysis?
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hdas
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yousha
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by yousha »

Don't count your chickens before they hatch! Wait till 2:04 EST
youngpleb
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by youngpleb »

Very interesting how so many threads like this appear on this site (especially as a result of the latest downturn), when the spirit of the thread is so entirely anti-Bogle in principle. It makes me think a lot of people have never even read any of the works associated with Bogleheads.
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hdas
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FIREchief
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by FIREchief »

That bear sure didn't live long.... :P
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
lazydavid
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by lazydavid »

FIREchief wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:38 pm That bear sure didn't live long.... :P
If it goes up another 15-16% in the next few days, we can definitely say that.
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willthrill81
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by willthrill81 »

FIREchief wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:38 pm That bear sure didn't live long.... :P
Even though we're back under the -20% from market highs mark, aren't we still 'technically' in a bear market until we reach new market highs? Not that it matters at all.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
linenfort
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by linenfort »

Ok, we got a bounce. Now what?


8-)
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Spinola
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Spinola »

Maybe the bear is just hibernating for the winter 😄🐃
Daitokuji
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by Daitokuji »

If it's a dead cat bounce, you sell. If it's a legitimate move upward, you buy. Stocks are EZ
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willthrill81
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by willthrill81 »

linenfort wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:02 pm Ok, we got a bounce. Now what?


8-)
Is it a bounce or the beginning of the recovery? Can you tell me before the markets open tomorrow?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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munemaker
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Re: Preparing for the bounce

Post by munemaker »

FIREchief wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:38 pm That bear sure didn't live long.... :P
You could be right, or this could be just be a dead cat bounce. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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