Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by milktoast »

I'm all out of dry powder. Rebalanced on Friday. But unless it drops back to another rebalance band, I'm down to my twice a month contributions.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ValuationsMatter »

F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
But that's expected and thus priced in.
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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am But that's expected and thus priced in.
I hope you're right. :beer
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watchnerd
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
But that's expected and thus priced in.
What isn't priced in?

Is death of a major political leader (say Angela Merkel) priced in?
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DonIce
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by DonIce »

I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ValuationsMatter »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:20 pm
ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
But that's expected and thus priced in.
What isn't priced in?

Is death of a major political leader (say Angela Merkel) priced in?
No. I take your point, and I think your question was rhetorical. Yet, just in case:
some of the businesses involved are already damaged
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dziuniek
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by dziuniek »

Sold 2.5% of bonds Monday.
Bought REITS + SMALL CAPS - my super laggards.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

Dow had largest % gain since 1933...
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm Dow had largest % gain since 1933...
Darn it, and I had just about convinced my wife to give me her shoe shopping money to use as "dry powder".
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:21 pm
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm Dow had largest % gain since 1933...
Darn it, and I had just about convinced my wife to give me her shoe shopping money to use as "dry powder".
:sharebeer
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

DonIce wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:23 pm I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.
Same, this isn't over yet. NYC went from just a few hundred to thousands in the span of a week. It's not even close, the rate of cases is doubling every 3 days. I figure in about 2 weeks the rest of the country is going to catch up. The food in my own grocery store is starting to reappear on the shelves, though we haven't seen one roll of toilet paper show up yet! The water is back in stock, as is the bread, crackers, tuna fish, a few cans of beans.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by bugleheadd »

wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by coupleofcents »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday
I'm sure everyone does. Don't worry, sometime in the near future you will wish you had put more in when the markets were down 40%.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Lee_WSP »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
But that's expected and thus priced in.
I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in. It's a push/pull between investors betting on something going up vs something going down.

When there is extreme uncertainty, the agreed upon & settled price can be either much higher or much lower. Which is why the swings are so large these days.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Prudence »

DonIce wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:23 pm I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.
I'm with you.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by surfstar »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday
Just wait and you might still get your chance!
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by roguewarrior0 »

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:45 pm
I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in.
Ok...
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by TeeDee »

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:45 pm
ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am
F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
Or is it a bear rally?
my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.
But that's expected and thus priced in.
I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in. It's a push/pull between investors betting on something going up vs something going down.

When there is extreme uncertainty, the agreed upon & settled price can be either much higher or much lower. Which is why the swings are so large these days.
+1
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

roguewarrior0 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:29 pm I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.
At what point are you going to pull the trigger?
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Skeeter1 »

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by carminered2019 »

roguewarrior0 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:29 pm I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.
"I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak" go ahead and short sell the equities.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ultraviolet »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:01 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?
0.83%
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ultraviolet »

Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

ultraviolet wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:05 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:01 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?
0.83%
That's the worst punch line ever.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Crushtheturtle »

ultraviolet wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:05 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:01 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?
0.83%
You hate to see a 10 month old bear so much equity risk.
If you're not having fun, you'll just have to pretend.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by invest4 »

Have been plowing some in on the way down. I still have a reasonable chunk left...let's see what transpires (would really like to put the remaining in the market).
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
you mean you bought in your own taxable account for her? maybe I misunderstood.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Bluce »

F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....
It will all become obvious in the rear view mirror.

Unfortunately, for all of us without crystal balls, not before. :(
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

ultraviolet wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:12 pm Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.
Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by GoldenFinch »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:33 pm
ultraviolet wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:12 pm Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.
Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?
I do this with Vanguard.

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Stef
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Stef »

Everytime the market recovers like that I get a feeling of panic for missing out on gains with my dry powder! Why didn't I go allin when VTI was below 110$? It was on the level from 5 years ago!
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

Stef wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:28 am Everytime the market recovers like that I get a feeling of panic for missing out on gains with my dry powder! Why didn't I go allin when VTI was below 110$? It was on the level from 5 years ago!
That's why I

a) keep DCAing per paycheck as usual

b) have a breakpoint for unnatural acts in my IPS pre-established.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by ultraviolet »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:33 pm
ultraviolet wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:12 pm Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.
Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?
I use Vanguard. I have a cash balance in my settlement fund from an account transfer to Vanguard that required I liquidate my individual stock holdings. I sold everything in late January right before the crash. The plan was to invest all at once, then the market crashed. So I sat on it for a couple weeks and now I set up an auto-exchange. This is in an i401k.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by jumppilot »

F150HD wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:21 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
you mean you bought in your own taxable account for her? maybe I misunderstood.
UTMA custodial account.

I have one for each of my kids. I see each account on my Schwab dashboard and can put money in it for them.

I also bought more TSM ETF shares for them a couple days ago. Hopefully pay for soccer lessons, braces, and other miscellaneous childhood expenses as they age, as allowed by law of course.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Uniform ... Minors_Act
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Prudence »

roguewarrior0 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:29 pm I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.
I agree about the 40 to 50%. The S&P500 was down last night 29% from its peak after the "good news" of the $2 trillion deal. So, it's easy see how the unknowns will make it dip to 40/50%, if not much lower which would be a shock to most investors, in the next few weeks. Movement of the virus, unemployment, and recession figures, and their impacts, are impossible to predict.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Stef »

I hope I'll be able to buy VTI for 99$ (-43%)!
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by t00sl0w »

still buying every paycheck, glad VIIIX is down some so i can buy more.
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Stef
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Stef »

Damn it, VTI went up 16% since Monday. Why didn't I buy it for 110$? :(
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by carminered2019 »

OH NO !! FOMO time :D
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

vipertom1970 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:06 pm OH NO !! FOMO time :D
It's just a bear rally...

I think.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Lee_WSP »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:22 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:06 pm OH NO !! FOMO time :D
It's just a bear rally...

I think.
If it doesn't tank by Monday's afternoon trading, I'll start believing the rally is here to stay.

Current factors contributing to my skepticism: Vix is still at 60+; Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

^^^ on this page. I fear all may go down again once the virus is in full effect thru the US.
people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone
yea, its nuts. People are panicking.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by firebirdparts »

Selling bond funds today. Some. No rush.
A fool and your money are soon partners
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

Lee_WSP wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:58 pm Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.
The Waffle House Index is now red.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:41 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:58 pm Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.
The Waffle House Index is now red.
what about the Big Mac index?
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watchnerd
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd »

F150HD wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:53 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:41 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:58 pm Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.
The Waffle House Index is now red.
what about the Big Mac index?
Big Mac index will be next year when inflation has a chance to show up.
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by roguewarrior0 »

Tomorrow will be an interesting day. The release of the unemployment rate.
I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.
My prediction is mid-May will be an entry point for 40-50% down (earnings, guidance, employment rates). Not market timing but trying to patient for when I will be comfortable to come in with my dry powder.
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