Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

[F150HD]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

[milktoast]

I'm all out of dry powder. Rebalanced on Friday. But unless it drops back to another rebalance band, I'm down to my twice a month contributions.

[ValuationsMatter]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

But that's expected and thus priced in.

[F150HD]

But that's expected and thus priced in.

I hope you're right.

[watchnerd]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

But that's expected and thus priced in.

What isn't priced in?

Is death of a major political leader (say Angela Merkel) priced in?

[DonIce]

I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.

[ValuationsMatter]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

But that's expected and thus priced in.

What isn't priced in?

Is death of a major political leader (say Angela Merkel) priced in?

No. I take your point, and I think your question was rhetorical. Yet, just in case:

some of the businesses involved are already damaged

[dziuniek]

Sold 2.5% of bonds Monday.
Bought REITS + SMALL CAPS - my super laggards.

[F150HD]

Dow had largest % gain since 1933...

[watchnerd]

Dow had largest % gain since 1933...

Darn it, and I had just about convinced my wife to give me her shoe shopping money to use as "dry powder".

[F150HD]

Dow had largest % gain since 1933...

Darn it, and I had just about convinced my wife to give me her shoe shopping money to use as "dry powder".

[Grt2bOutdoors]

I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.

Same, this isn't over yet. NYC went from just a few hundred to thousands in the span of a week. It's not even close, the rate of cases is doubling every 3 days. I figure in about 2 weeks the rest of the country is going to catch up. The food in my own grocery store is starting to reappear on the shelves, though we haven't seen one roll of toilet paper show up yet! The water is back in stock, as is the bread, crackers, tuna fish, a few cans of beans.

[bugleheadd]

wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday

[coupleofcents]

wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday

I'm sure everyone does. Don't worry, sometime in the near future you will wish you had put more in when the markets were down 40%.

[Lee_WSP]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

But that's expected and thus priced in.

I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in. It's a push/pull between investors betting on something going up vs something going down.

When there is extreme uncertainty, the agreed upon & settled price can be either much higher or much lower. Which is why the swings are so large these days.

[Prudence]

I bought a bunch on the way down (from ~75/25 to ~90/10), have a bit more left to deploy but waiting for it to go a bit lower to do that last part. My expectation is that we haven't reached bottom yet, based on continued exponential growth in confirmed US case numbers. As more states get locked down, more people will panic.

I'm with you.

[surfstar]

wish i put more when markets was down 35% yestreday

Just wait and you might still get your chance!

[roguewarrior0]

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.

[ValuationsMatter]

I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in.

Ok...

[TeeDee]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

Or is it a bear rally?

my gut leans this way. even if they pass a bill helping the economy.....some of the businesses involved are already damaged.

But that's expected and thus priced in.

I'm so tired of hearing how anything is priced in.

Nothing is priced in. It's a push/pull between investors betting on something going up vs something going down.

When there is extreme uncertainty, the agreed upon & settled price can be either much higher or much lower. Which is why the swings are so large these days.

+1

[watchnerd]

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.

At what point are you going to pull the trigger?

[Skeeter1]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

[carminered2019]

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.

"I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak" go ahead and short sell the equities.

[watchnerd]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?

[ultraviolet]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?

0.83%

[ultraviolet]

Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.

[watchnerd]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?

0.83%

That's the worst punch line ever.

[Crushtheturtle]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?

0.83%

You hate to see a 10 month old bear so much equity risk.

[invest4]

Have been plowing some in on the way down. I still have a reasonable chunk left...let's see what transpires (would really like to put the remaining in the market).

[F150HD]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

you mean you bought in your own taxable account for her? maybe I misunderstood.

[Bluce]

the looming question is.....are we at the bottom. Today may be a pivot point.....but part of me feels even so, things may drop again. Time will tell....

It will all become obvious in the rear view mirror.

Unfortunately, for all of us without crystal balls, not before.

[justsomeguy2018]

Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.

Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?

[GoldenFinch]

Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.

Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?

I do this with Vanguard.

GoldenFinch

[Stef]

Everytime the market recovers like that I get a feeling of panic for missing out on gains with my dry powder! Why didn't I go allin when VTI was below 110$? It was on the level from 5 years ago!

[watchnerd]

Everytime the market recovers like that I get a feeling of panic for missing out on gains with my dry powder! Why didn't I go allin when VTI was below 110$? It was on the level from 5 years ago!

That's why I

a) keep DCAing per paycheck as usual

b) have a breakpoint for unnatural acts in my IPS pre-established.

[ultraviolet]

Here’s what I did. I set my cash to auto invest in total stock market and total international every Monday for 12 weeks. I’m at week 2. The market freaks out on Mondays. This way I don’t have to make the decision and I doubt it’ll be a green day every Monday for the next 10 weeks. Yesterday definitely wasn’t and neither were the last 4 out of 5.

Curious - what brokerage do you use to set up Monday auto-invests?

I use Vanguard. I have a cash balance in my settlement fund from an account transfer to Vanguard that required I liquidate my individual stock holdings. I sold everything in late January right before the crash. The plan was to invest all at once, then the market crashed. So I sat on it for a couple weeks and now I set up an auto-exchange. This is in an i401k.

[jumppilot]

I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.

you mean you bought in your own taxable account for her? maybe I misunderstood.

UTMA custodial account.

I have one for each of my kids. I see each account on my Schwab dashboard and can put money in it for them.

I also bought more TSM ETF shares for them a couple days ago. Hopefully pay for soccer lessons, braces, and other miscellaneous childhood expenses as they age, as allowed by law of course.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Uniform ... Minors_Act

[Prudence]

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.

I agree about the 40 to 50%. The S&P500 was down last night 29% from its peak after the "good news" of the $2 trillion deal. So, it's easy see how the unknowns will make it dip to 40/50%, if not much lower which would be a shock to most investors, in the next few weeks. Movement of the virus, unemployment, and recession figures, and their impacts, are impossible to predict.

[Stef]

I hope I'll be able to buy VTI for 99$ (-43%)!

[t00sl0w]

still buying every paycheck, glad VIIIX is down some so i can buy more.

[Stef]

Damn it, VTI went up 16% since Monday. Why didn't I buy it for 110$?

[carminered2019]

OH NO !! FOMO time

[watchnerd]

OH NO !! FOMO time

It's just a bear rally...

I think.

[Lee_WSP]

OH NO !! FOMO time

It's just a bear rally...

I think.

If it doesn't tank by Monday's afternoon trading, I'll start believing the rally is here to stay.

Current factors contributing to my skepticism: Vix is still at 60+; Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.

[F150HD]

^^^ on this page. I fear all may go down again once the virus is in full effect thru the US.

people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone

yea, its nuts. People are panicking.

[firebirdparts]

Selling bond funds today. Some. No rush.

[watchnerd]

Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.

The Waffle House Index is now red.

[F150HD]

Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.

The Waffle House Index is now red.

what about the Big Mac index?

[watchnerd]

Coronavirus is still running rampant; people in my neck of the woods are still acting like we're in a disaster zone; and finally: still no toilet paper.

The Waffle House Index is now red.

what about the Big Mac index?

Big Mac index will be next year when inflation has a chance to show up.

[roguewarrior0]

Tomorrow will be an interesting day. The release of the unemployment rate.

I am 82% Cash (MM) and am still waiting this out. I know noone can read the future. But I decided to waiting until earnings season starts. Once companies start changing earnings forecast, I believe we should be @ 40%-50% down from peak. Also, once people start missing checks for 30+ days then we will see just how efficient the market is.

I hope I am wrong and we are sunny skies from here, but just too many unknowns. But I am still keeping my powder dry. worst case, I earn 1-2% in mm.

My prediction is mid-May will be an entry point for 40-50% down (earnings, guidance, employment rates). Not market timing but trying to patient for when I will be comfortable to come in with my dry powder.