Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Snuffycuts99
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 11:09 pm

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Snuffycuts99 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:41 pm

I TLH today with tax exempt intermediate bond. I exchanged the majority of shares for tax exempt limited term, but I also made the decision to increase my equity allocation and put some into small cap value and a bit into VTSAX. Before the end of the year I'll also TLH my state muni fund. I plan on also increasing my international equity allocation a bit when exchanging those shares.

lxr184
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:18 pm

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by lxr184 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:44 pm

Tell me honestly, which friend do you think is doing better? Well, the first friend is the exact position the U.S. is in.

If the first friend has a printing press in his basement, then I am not worried about him :) He is simply in a league of his own and the same rules may not apply to him
Last edited by lxr184 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Shallowpockets
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Shallowpockets » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:45 pm

phantom0308 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:20 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:49 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:43 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm
Bought yesterday. Large move to Equities based on re-balance but also upped my Equity allocation in my AA another 10% because value.

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
Have you ever considered WHAT is actually powering this so called growth? Debt? Inflation (increase in money supply/printing)? Or is it better to just keep head in sand? Growth is defined by a positive balance sheet, not the opposite. This goes for individuals and countries alike.
The Fed has been unwinding the QEs for the last 2 years. Where do you see a warning sign?
The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?

I love this analogy. If you met your old friend and they told you "I maxed out all my credit cards, I took out a second mortgage in my house, I have a negative cash flow, I'll never be able to pay these debts back, and I bought a gold Rolex". Then you meet another friend and they tell you "I paid off my mortgage, maxed my 401k, have no debts whatsoever, and saving 40% of my income"

Tell me honestly, which friend do you think is doing better? Well, the first friend is the exact position the U.S. is in.
Applying personal finance to countries doesn’t work. I don’t have my own printing press or an army of workers who will continue giving me part of their ever increasing wages.
Venezuala, Greece. Small countries here, so maybe Rome. But Greece had someone bailing them. Who bails US?
If you cannot imagine it, will it come as a black swan?

chevca
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by chevca » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:16 pm

F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:23 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:56 pm
chevca wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:55 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:15 pm
Any insight or tips? Do many try to 'wait' for bottom? or buy on the way back up? (whenever that may be)

Not market timing, just buying on sale. :moneybag
Uh huh... nothing about that sounds like timing? :happy
"Timing" would be trying to time the bottom to buy.....buying on the way down isn't quite timing to me. :moneybag
Sure it is. I will say it is better to buy on the way down then up. HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing and are clear signs of active management. Cash is a significant drag on long term returns AND active management is a losers game so the two together is most likely then not give negative alpha.

Good luck.
You assume you have any idea what my (or others) financial position is, and you don't. HOWEVER, its pure assumption on your part.

Good luck!

Whatever you need to tell yourself, I guess.

With this post/thread, you seem to imply you keep dry powder around to buy "on sale". But, because you're not trying to buy at the bottom, it's not timing? How do you know this isn't the bottom? :wink:

You could have bought at these levels/prices in the past. Yet, I assume you held some dry powder around. Why.... why didn't you buy then?

Oakwood42
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Location: Philadelphia

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Oakwood42 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:19 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:09 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing
Not necessarily. You could be buying on the way down with the money you earned that week at work. It's not cash that was sitting aside if it was cash that was recently earned.
+1 I received bonus at the end of the year which I planned to spend over next 2-3 years increasing my allocation to equity however I may increase my contributions "slightly."

Oakwood42
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Location: Philadelphia

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Oakwood42 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:21 pm

munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:35 pm
lxr184 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:33 pm
I've been buying the dips and will continue to do so. I am a recovering market timer ...
Sorry to say, if you are buying on the dips, your recovery is not going well. Sad...
+1

phantom0308
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Location: Rochester Hills, MI

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by phantom0308 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:22 pm

Shallowpockets wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:45 pm
phantom0308 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:20 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:49 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:43 pm


Have you ever considered WHAT is actually powering this so called growth? Debt? Inflation (increase in money supply/printing)? Or is it better to just keep head in sand? Growth is defined by a positive balance sheet, not the opposite. This goes for individuals and countries alike.
The Fed has been unwinding the QEs for the last 2 years. Where do you see a warning sign?
The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?

I love this analogy. If you met your old friend and they told you "I maxed out all my credit cards, I took out a second mortgage in my house, I have a negative cash flow, I'll never be able to pay these debts back, and I bought a gold Rolex". Then you meet another friend and they tell you "I paid off my mortgage, maxed my 401k, have no debts whatsoever, and saving 40% of my income"

Tell me honestly, which friend do you think is doing better? Well, the first friend is the exact position the U.S. is in.
Applying personal finance to countries doesn’t work. I don’t have my own printing press or an army of workers who will continue giving me part of their ever increasing wages.
Venezuala, Greece. Small countries here, so maybe Rome. But Greece had someone bailing them. Who bails US?
If you cannot imagine it, will it come as a black swan?
It’s not that I can’t imagine it, it’s that the likelihood of it occurring are low and the arguments are simplistic. The same arguments about unsustainable debt that will inevitably doom us have been made since before I was born and will be made for the foreseeable future by people who want to simplify the federal government’s balance sheet to a pocketbook.

Smoke
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Smoke » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Powder is still dry, nothing of any significance going on to load the rifle.
Arguing for the sake of arguing is something I am not going to engage in.

staythecourse
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by staythecourse » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:36 pm

F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:23 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:56 pm
chevca wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:55 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:15 pm
Any insight or tips? Do many try to 'wait' for bottom? or buy on the way back up? (whenever that may be)

Not market timing, just buying on sale. :moneybag
Uh huh... nothing about that sounds like timing? :happy
"Timing" would be trying to time the bottom to buy.....buying on the way down isn't quite timing to me. :moneybag
Sure it is. I will say it is better to buy on the way down then up. HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing and are clear signs of active management. Cash is a significant drag on long term returns AND active management is a losers game so the two together is most likely then not give negative alpha.

Good luck.
You assume you have any idea what my (or others) financial position is, and you don't. HOWEVER, its pure assumption on your part.

Good luck!
You don't have to agree with anything I said, but your post should make some sense. What does your financial situation have to do with my points of timing is active management and cash is a drag on long term returns? Those points would apply if you have $2 in the bank or $10 million in the bank.

Maybe you just don't like being criticized?

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

chicagoan23
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by chicagoan23 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:37 pm

F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:15 pm
I just did....will hit at market close. Money won't be needed for 20+ years, so, why not.

Any insight or tips? Do many try to 'wait' for bottom? or buy on the way back up? (whenever that may be)

Not market timing, just buying on sale. :moneybag
I have a small “non-Boglehead” portion of my portfolio in taxable and I try to buy value names in times like this. I just bought some Berkshire B today and will likely buy some more dividend aristocrats soon. Forward P/E levels are in the 10-12 range with a 3% dividend yield and dividends that have increased every year without fail for decades. Gives me a level of comfort even if it underperforms the broader market long-term. Aside from that I’m not reallocating my bonds to equities just yet.
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" | | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

staythecourse
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by staythecourse » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:38 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:09 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing
Not necessarily. You could be buying on the way down with the money you earned that week at work. It's not cash that was sitting aside if it was cash that was recently earned.
Yes, but then you would not be buying just on the way down, but both ways and not in relation to the market movements at all, but to when the money becomes available to invest each paycheck. Since the market usually goes up (2/3 of the time) then you would be buying on the way up MORE then on the way down.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Sandtrap
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:47 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:30 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:15 pm
I just did....will hit at market close. Money won't be needed for 20+ years, so, why not.

Any insight or tips? Do many try to 'wait' for bottom? or buy on the way back up? (whenever that may be)

Not market timing, just buying on sale. :moneybag
My dry powder is remaining dry. No plans to sell stocks here obviously. But no plans to buy stocks at this time either.
+1
More to lose than to gain by "fiddling".
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Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

SrGrumpy
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by SrGrumpy » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:55 pm

bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
I don't see panic. The percentage drops are modest by historical standards; they look big because the market has gone just one way for the past decade or so with a stunning lack of volatility.

Full employment - however you define that - is not necessarily desirable. A tight labor market leads to wage inflation, etc., etc. Hence the Fed, finally under professional management, is stepping in. This was all easily foreseeable, and I'm glad to say I will be keeping my recently enlarged pile of powder dry for some time.

Irisheyes
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Irisheyes » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:01 pm

SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:55 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
I don't see panic. The percentage drops are modest by historical standards; they look big because the market has gone just one way for the past decade or so with a stunning lack of volatility.

Full employment - however you define that - is not necessarily desirable. A tight labor market leads to wage inflation, etc., etc. Hence the Fed, finally under professional management, is stepping in. This was all easily foreseeable, and I'm glad to say I will be keeping my recently enlarged pile of powder dry for some time.
I'm not at all sure what you mean by that.

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munemaker
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by munemaker » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:10 pm

cncm wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:05 pm
...if the US is insolvent, then why is everyone dying to lend the US government money at 2.8% interest rate for ten years?
Because US Treasury bond, bills and notes are the safest investments in the world. The 3 month treasury is referred to as the "risk free rate." If the US ever defaults on an obligation, you are going to have a lot bigger problems to worry about.

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JonnyDVM
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by JonnyDVM » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:18 pm

My powder is baking at Ally. Have a feeling when that extra bonus is paid it’ll still be a great time to buy.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns

SrGrumpy
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by SrGrumpy » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:18 pm

Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:01 pm
SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:55 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
I don't see panic. The percentage drops are modest by historical standards; they look big because the market has gone just one way for the past decade or so with a stunning lack of volatility.

Full employment - however you define that - is not necessarily desirable. A tight labor market leads to wage inflation, etc., etc. Hence the Fed, finally under professional management, is stepping in. This was all easily foreseeable, and I'm glad to say I will be keeping my recently enlarged pile of powder dry for some time.
I'm not at all sure what you mean by that.
New sheriff in town.

TravelforFun
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by TravelforFun » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:19 pm

bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm
Bought yesterday. Large move to Equities based on re-balance but also upped my Equity allocation in my AA another 10% because value.

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
Panic without fundamentals? Record budget deficit, unsettled trade deal with China, rising interest rates, chaos in DC, government shut down fear, etc...

TravelforFun

Nissanzx1
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Nissanzx1 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:20 pm

No plans to change my strategy but I did pick up a few single shares for my "gambling" account. I'm not very good at it, but it's wayyyy cheaper than a casino ;)

WanderingDoc
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:21 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:50 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:43 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm
Bought yesterday. Large move to Equities based on re-balance but also upped my Equity allocation in my AA another 10% because value.

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
Have you ever considered WHAT is actually powering this so called growth? Debt? Inflation (increase in money supply/printing)? Or is it better to just keep head in sand? Growth is defined by a positive balance sheet, not the opposite. This goes for individuals and countries alike.
What do you think is powering real estate? Debt - most folks can purchase anything that requires more than a 3% downpayment.
Full employment - ha! Don't believe everything you read - plenty of job listings, why can't they fill them? Because they aren't willing to hire "any taker", instead they are pigeon holing looking for a select demographic only, not seeking to hire older workers, etc.
I agree with you, to an extent. Actually, lately the number of cash purchases has been pretty high (in comparison to the last 20 years) in many markets throughout the United States. Plus, real estate has the advantage that it sits very nicely into Maslow's hierarchy of needs and is a hard asset. An iPhone or a Starbucks frappuccino does not.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

weltschmerz
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by weltschmerz » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:25 pm

deleted
Last edited by weltschmerz on Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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gas_balloon
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by gas_balloon » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:26 pm

Put 60K in the market between today and Tuesday this week. #drypowder

WanderingDoc
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:30 pm

munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:33 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
...The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?
The US can never default by definition because the US government owns a printing press.
Whether your statement is correct or not is actually irrelevant. Printing press or not, the U.S. is not prosperous by any definition because there is a net negative cash flow, and net worth is more and more negative by the year. Debts not paid are increasing. Whether you have a printing press or not, this is still the definition of broke and not prosperous.

Wealth and prosperity is measured by your balance sheet. Prosperity = A positive cash flow, low levels of debt that is serviceable, a positive net worth, and a high savings rate. The United States has none of these. But, like a six-year-old child I also have a beautiful imagination and can pretend that none of this is true :P

I can make up my own definition of healthy. You have to be obese, insulin resistant, out of breath, cannot bend down to pick up your children, and need to have had at least two heart attacks. I say that this is healthy. But I have all the pills I need (printing press), so why don't you believe me that I'm healthy?
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

SrGrumpy
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by SrGrumpy » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:59 pm

munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:33 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
...The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?
The US can never default by definition because the US government owns a printing press.
So does the Venezuelan government. (Or maybe it's borrowed from the Cubans.)

SGM
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by SGM » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:00 pm

I am neither buying or selling. We have a lot in the stock market already and don't need to put more at risk. We have a good amount in bond funds and CDs these days. I think we can get away with living off of bond funds, CDs, and other income streams for a long time. I will be examining my AA after Jan 1.


If I were still accumulating I would be investing with every paycheck as I did for well over 30 years.

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F150HD
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:04 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:36 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:23 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:56 pm
chevca wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:55 pm


Uh huh... nothing about that sounds like timing? :happy
"Timing" would be trying to time the bottom to buy.....buying on the way down isn't quite timing to me. :moneybag
Sure it is. I will say it is better to buy on the way down then up. HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing and are clear signs of active management. Cash is a significant drag on long term returns AND active management is a losers game so the two together is most likely then not give negative alpha.

Good luck.
You assume you have any idea what my (or others) financial position is, and you don't. HOWEVER, its pure assumption on your part.

Good luck!
You don't have to agree with anything I said, but your post should make some sense. What does your financial situation have to do with my points of timing is active management and cash is a drag on long term returns? Those points would apply if you have $2 in the bank or $10 million in the bank.

Maybe you just don't like being criticized?

Good luck.
No, its because your posts come across as condescending. I didn't want to type this, but you asked.

Best of luck to you.
Last edited by F150HD on Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light.

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F150HD
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:07 pm

chevca wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:16 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:23 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:56 pm
chevca wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:55 pm


Uh huh... nothing about that sounds like timing? :happy
"Timing" would be trying to time the bottom to buy.....buying on the way down isn't quite timing to me. :moneybag
Sure it is. I will say it is better to buy on the way down then up. HOWEVER to buy on the way down means you have money just sitting aside waiting for the market to go down which is market timing and are clear signs of active management. Cash is a significant drag on long term returns AND active management is a losers game so the two together is most likely then not give negative alpha.

Good luck.
You assume you have any idea what my (or others) financial position is, and you don't. HOWEVER, its pure assumption on your part.

Good luck!

Whatever you need to tell yourself, I guess.

With this post/thread, you seem to imply you keep dry powder around to buy "on sale". But, because you're not trying to buy at the bottom, it's not timing? How do you know this isn't the bottom? :wink:

You could have bought at these levels/prices in the past. Yet, I assume you held some dry powder around. Why.... why didn't you buy then?
:confused
Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light.

drzzzzz
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by drzzzzz » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:11 pm

Buying stocks, tax loss harvesting, and seems to be a good time to do roth conversions since prices are lower now than a few months back

EddyB
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by EddyB » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:12 pm

About 3.7% of my net bonus went in—80% total stock market, 20% total international—today and each of the past several days, and several days to come.

Irisheyes
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Irisheyes » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:12 pm

SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:18 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:01 pm
SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:55 pm
bgyt wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:20 pm

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
I don't see panic. The percentage drops are modest by historical standards; they look big because the market has gone just one way for the past decade or so with a stunning lack of volatility.

Full employment - however you define that - is not necessarily desirable. A tight labor market leads to wage inflation, etc., etc. Hence the Fed, finally under professional management, is stepping in. This was all easily foreseeable, and I'm glad to say I will be keeping my recently enlarged pile of powder dry for some time.
I'm not at all sure what you mean by that.
New sheriff in town.
I know you meant that. What I didn't understand was the "finally under professional management" comment.
Last edited by Irisheyes on Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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munemaker
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by munemaker » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:16 pm

SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:59 pm
munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:33 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
...The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?
The US can never default by definition because the US government owns a printing press.
So does the Venezuelan government. (Or maybe it's borrowed from the Cubans.)
The US has the largest economy in the world. Venezuela doesn't even make the top 20.

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F150HD
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:18 pm

walletless wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:26 pm
Put 60K in the market between today and Tuesday this week. #drypowder
This you?

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SrGrumpy
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by SrGrumpy » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:30 pm

munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:16 pm
SrGrumpy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:59 pm
munemaker wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:33 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:49 pm
...The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?
The US can never default by definition because the US government owns a printing press.
So does the Venezuelan government. (Or maybe it's borrowed from the Cubans.)
The US has the largest economy in the world. Venezuela doesn't even make the top 20.
I'd be surprised if VZ makes the Top 200 at this point. But anyhoo, I see your "printing-press" comment is paraphrasing the 2016 comment of a certain U.S. presidential candidate, so I assume you are being facetious.

Elysium
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Elysium » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:34 pm

I have been buying since the downturn began last week of September. Made regular contributions this week from paycheck and also made college savings purchases this week. Although, now it appears the buying started too early. That is always the case in a down market, you could end up buying too early and then it opens up more bargains and you end with not having enough money to buy if you front load all your purchases.

How did I have money to buy on the sidelines? Instead of a static AA, I follow a simple formula based rule that will keep track of how much bonds I should be in based on my glide path, and if my overall portfolio value keeps going up then my required bonds allocation keeps going up, and so I would simply accumulate new money into fixed income. When the portfolio value starts going down, then the forumula will tell me to decrease bond allocation, and I would use the accumulated money to purchase equities. In other words, it is based on my glide path and portfolio value, not a static AA based on age in bonds or something like that.

I have at this point nearly exhausted all the money accumulated over past several months, only one or two purchases like previous ones to go, after that then just regular paycheck dedcuctions will be left over.
Last edited by Elysium on Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by UpperNwGuy » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:36 pm

I don't believe in having "dry powder." If I have extra money to invest, I invest it on the first of the month as I always do. I don't keep it around as "dry powder" to invest when I think the market has dropped to a certain level. That just seems like a bad idea to me.

RCL
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by RCL » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:07 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:57 pm
jalbert wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:54 pm
The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you?
Insolvent means unable to pay existing liabilities. Has the govt missed making a bond payment or non-discretionary budget expense payment?
Deficits are greater, debt is higher, and net worth is more and more negative, year by year. Sounds prosperous to me. The US cannot service all (or even some) of its current debt. I'd love an explanation from you to prove the statement wrong.
Please stop trying to de-rail this thread..please start your own..The topic is interesting however :wink:
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mikeyzito22
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by mikeyzito22 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:34 pm

FinancialRookie wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:05 pm
We buy every Friday whether the market is up, down, or sideways. I've barely paid attention the past couple months but glad to see we're buying on sale this week!
Start with Mondays, please!
https://www.investopedia.com/day-tradin ... de-stocks/

Cycle
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Cycle » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:50 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:17 pm
I don't agree. Both have a balance sheet. Both have assets and liabilities. Both have positive/negative cash flows.
Countries can just raise taxes. No US citizen actually owns anything, bc if we fail to pay taxes we will be imprisoned. Only by paying taxes are we granted access to the things we "own"... So I'd argue everything and every person is an asset of the US.

It's clear when looking at states with troubled books, like illinois (highest effective state/local tax rate), they just raise taxes to get them through it.

On topic, I buy every week. I paid off a mortgage recently so now pretty much all money coming in goes directly into market investments. It was a bit of market timing.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

WanderingDoc
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:53 pm

Cycle wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:50 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:17 pm
I don't agree. Both have a balance sheet. Both have assets and liabilities. Both have positive/negative cash flows.
Countries can just raise taxes. No US citizen actually owns anything, bc if we fail to pay taxes we will be imprisoned. Only by paying taxes are we granted access to the things we "own"... So I'd argue everything and every person is an asset of the US.

It's clear when looking at states with troubled books, like illinois (highest effective state/local tax rate), they just raise taxes to get them through it.

On topic, I buy every week. I paid off a mortgage recently so now pretty much all money coming in goes directly into market investments. It was a bit of market timing.
And how's that working out so far? 8-)
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

Cycle
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Cycle » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:04 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:53 pm
Cycle wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:50 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:17 pm
I don't agree. Both have a balance sheet. Both have assets and liabilities. Both have positive/negative cash flows.
Countries can just raise taxes. No US citizen actually owns anything, bc if we fail to pay taxes we will be imprisoned. Only by paying taxes are we granted access to the things we "own"... So I'd argue everything and every person is an asset of the US.

It's clear when looking at states with troubled books, like illinois (highest effective state/local tax rate), they just raise taxes to get them through it.

On topic, I buy every week. I paid off a mortgage recently so now pretty much all money coming in goes directly into market investments. It was a bit of market timing.
And how's that working out so far? 8-)
I would look to rent or get a very cheap house if I still lived in Illinois, to reduce my tax liability... Or one could move. I imagine others do the same. In Chicago I recall there was a 10% sales tax when I lived there.

I found this episode interesting on the origins of the national debt
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018 ... ional-debt
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

honduranhurricane
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by honduranhurricane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:05 pm

Tax loss selling in my taxable account. I have not, nor plan to, sell in my tax deffered accounts. May let cash build in those though, rather than buy asap. Have not decided yet.

Solo Prosperity
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Solo Prosperity » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:44 pm

In my passive portfolio I added to Emerging Markets, and in my active portfolio, I added to a handful of stocks (MU, FCAU and OSB).

justsomeguy2018
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:19 am

I put $5500 in Roth in November. Rather than immediately setting my AA, I put 70% for my AA and then set aside around 30% of it in the MM cash position in case the market experienced turbulence. Since then I have bought on 4 large dips, last of the #drypowder was spent today.

Sure, market may still drop further, but I'm just glad I didn't put all of it into my AA as lump sum when I first deposited it. I was able to significantly lower my cost basis with that strategy.

The anti market-timers will say "But what if it had just kept going up!! Time in the market beats market timing!" I wasn't buying it - already got burnt once this year with a lump sum purchase. Seemed reasonable and fairly obvious to me that I could get in cheaper at a later time and I was correct. I timed the market. I suppose the next argument will be "Good luck repeating that over the next 20 years". Guess we will see.

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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by mrspock » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:23 am

Not at my rebalancing band yet, we need to go down a bit more and then I'm a buyer.

move
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by move » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:50 am

Started buying some weeks ago. A bit to early it seams...

bironology
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by bironology » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:06 am

For many working folks, this is bonus season. What a wonderful gift that the market is also on sale! Double-win! :sharebeer :moneybag

Not exactly "dry powder" but I normally hang on to my annual bonus until after the Santa Claus Rally. Not this year, I'm buying on the way down and loving it.

I'm even considering taking some of the cash I have reserved for home improvement projects for 2019 and putting it into the market now while its on sale. The projects can wait.

Anyone else think that way?

artibug
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by artibug » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:45 am

We are! I have been buying 2k each time when the market drops 2%. Both DH and I have very stable job (well, never say never...I know), for the time being, I am raiding our emergency fund (~1yr reserve) to buy total market fund at a discount. Totally loving this! :greedy :D

GoldenFinch
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:49 am

bironology wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:06 am
For many working folks, this is bonus season. What a wonderful gift that the market is also on sale! Double-win! :sharebeer :moneybag

Not exactly "dry powder" but I normally hang on to my annual bonus until after the Santa Claus Rally. Not this year, I'm buying on the way down and loving it.

I'm even considering taking some of the cash I have reserved for home improvement projects for 2019 and putting it into the market now while its on sale. The projects can wait.

Anyone else think that way?
I THINK that way, but I don’t usually act that way: meaning I know if I buy on the way down the money may continue to go way, way down. What I’m trying to say is I try not to purposely market time because it feels bad when it goes wrong! That’s why I just stick to the regular pre-set buy on schedule plan (per Boglehead philosophy). For me it’s every two weeks in tax deferred and once a month in taxable, plus rebalancing at five percent, market induced, change in asset allocation.
:sharebeer

fortyofforty
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by fortyofforty » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:09 am

artibug wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:45 am
We are! I have been buying 2k each time when the market drops 2%. Both DH and I have very stable job (well, never say never...I know), for the time being, I am raiding our emergency fund (~1yr reserve) to buy total market fund at a discount. Totally loving this! :greedy :D
Not sure that "raiding [y]our emergency fund" is the wisest strategy. Perhaps posit the idea over in personal finance for feedback from those far wiser than I.

Accrual
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Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Accrual » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:26 am

artibug wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:45 am
We are! I have been buying 2k each time when the market drops 2%. Both DH and I have very stable job (well, never say never...I know), for the time being, I am raiding our emergency fund (~1yr reserve) to buy total market fund at a discount. Totally loving this! :greedy :D
I logged in to specifically reply to your post. This is not a good idea. At all. It is called an 'Emergency Fund' for a reason. An item's price falling 2% is not an emergency. Would you dip into your EF to buy more discounted grapes at the supermarket? The action itself is troubling because you are reacting with emotion, and the act of reaction relating to investing (save rebalancing) is a true emergency in itself. I would heavily reconsider.

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