What will be the low for the S&P 500?

[renditt]

I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

[alfaspider]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

[Shallowpockets]

I hope it does not hit 1400 bottom on the S and P. That would be way down. As in a major depression and not good for anybody.
I know there are those dancing with glee at this drop and wanting it to go further down. Then they can buy on sale. Well, that would take a toll and I don't see the dancing as realistic because there would be ripples through everything.
Nothing to say that after the holidays that there won't be a rise in unemployment and the repercussions of that. Expectations for company profits next year projected less. And so it goes as perhaps business prepares for such a scenario.
The gleeful dancers can't see the trees for the forest.

[selters]

This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced since I started investing in 2012. But that’s probably because this is the first time a few months of contributions for me will not cover my losses. Logically I know very well that the market may turn at any point. So I will continue to buy stocks whenever I get a paycheck.

I think 1400 sounds low. For the purposes of this thread, I’m guessing the low for the S&P will be 2158.

[alpenglow]

1909

[Namashkar]

It is not practical or helpful to pick a number. To me it is important to decide when to start buying equities. I am starting to do that using DCA after S&P drops to 2200, about 25% drop from its recent high. In the meantime I am holding money in MM accounts.

[JoeRetire]

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

2385

[livesoft]

The low will be whatever it closed at today or whatever it closes at on its next RBD.

[amitb00]

It will hit less than 2000 before it hits newer highs. So answer for this question: 2000 Not happy about it.

[greenhill]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens

[Luckywon]

This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced.

To me they always feel different at the time. In the rear view mirror, they look the same.

[columbia]

I’m a pessimist these days, so I’ll say 1500.


I, of course, have no idea.

[michaeljc70]

2300. Of course, this is just a guess. Things seem pretty oversold. I don't see signs of recession. I see signs of the Fed easing on rate hikes. If the tariff situation with China is mostly resolved, that could give a big boost to the markets.

[ReformedSpender]

In the range of 21XX - 23XX's before the next great bull

Nobody knows nothing. Keep calm and Bogle on

[applejack123]

It was at 1800 two years ago. Cmon. Dropping to that is not going back that far. I don’t see how the huge jump in the last two years, everyone thinks that is where the stock prices should have been. And when it goes down, they feel like the markets tanking. What? I see it the other way. It went crazy up the last two years. Crazy.

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

whatever it is, I won't know it until after it's happened. So of what importance is guessing a random number? Guessing contest? How many jellybeans are in the jar? How much does the cow weigh?

[hotpancakes]

1000.

[Prudence]

2,200 for the floor on a correction. I don't see any evidence to support a recession and bear market starting in the next two years, in so far as this would affect the S&P 500. So, a drop from the high of 2,940 to 1,400 (52%) seems wildly pessimistic.

[tesuzuki2002]

I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

1200

It was in the 700s in 2009

800s in 2003

700 in 1997

These are all real numbers that are not far off... exponential growth is not sustainable.

[kilkoyne]

I'll say 1580

[pennylane]

Between 1900-2100

[Taylor Larimore]

I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

renditt:

I have not the slightest idea.

Take a guess on the 2019 Boglehead Contest with what you think the S&P 500 Index will close at in December 2019. Most of us don't even come close.

Registration for the Contest begins January 1st on this forum.

https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx

Best wishes.
Taylor

[Random Musings]

I don't know if the final low will be in 2019, but another 50% plus drop would not surprise me. So, I'll toss my ring in the hat and guess 1,270. Hope it doesn't happen though.

RM

[Cycle]

All civilizations come to an end, it'll go to zero, but not in my lifetime.

In the next calendar year, i think the S&P will go to 1158.

It all depends what the feds do. The markets are basically welded to the fed rate.

[Taylor Larimore]

All civilizations come to an end, it'll go to zero, but not in my lifetime.

In the next calendar year, i think the S&P will go to 1158.

Cycle:

I just finished reading "Wall Street's 2019 Outlook" on cnbc. Thirteen major firms have guesses ranging from a low of 2,750 (Morgan Stanley) to a high of 3,250 (Deutsche Bank).

Currently the average 2018 Boglehead guesses are better than the average Wall Street Expert guesses.

https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx

Be sure to register here for the 2019 Contest during the first 10-days in January.

Best wishes.
Taylor

[comcool]

2,506.96... am I doing this right

[Soaker]

Not to be political, but rather historical. The S&P 500 declined 17.37% in 1973 and then further declined 29.72% in 1974. The stock market wouldn't like a 1974-type situation in Washington very much. I'll say 1929 as the S&P 500 low, which wouldn't be as bad as the 1973-1974 decline.

[limeyx]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !

[TropikThunder]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !

No way! The accounting practices on Rigel are so bad, nobody knows what a fair price is. And don't get me started on the currency risk.

[flyingaway]

So valuation does matter. What will be the CAPE10 number?

[whodidntante]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens

Sure, but we need interstellar. Elon Musk only wants to put humans on Mars. What a slacker.

[whodidntante]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !

No way! The accounting practices on Rigel are so bad, nobody knows what a fair price is. And don't get me started on the currency risk.

We'll be beyond money and instead work to better ourselves. But somehow there are Federation credits.

[Scooter57]

I'll guess 1825. I believe that is in the range that would boost the dividends to a more appealing level and bring the P/E to a more historically average level. But these things can often overshoot to the downside.

Baring massive political chaos/war/disaster/plague etc I would be putting my t ruck into reverse gear at that level.

[tc101]

I guess 2212. Of course if that were anything more than a wild guess I would sell everything now and buy it back when the market got closer to my guess. I would guess that no one here has done that.

[hdas]

[Deleted]

[eRob]

I think the market goes back up from here. 2,506.96

[aristotelian]

I see nothing scary in the market fundamentals. CAPE topped out in the 30s, not even close to the peak valuations in 2000. The current market price is the best approximation based on known information. I have one more payroll contribution this year and it's going to stocks.

[SchruteB&B]

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!

[Flymore]

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens

Why not start a thread on when the sun will explode?
Recently the sun's age was increased to around 4.5 billion years up from 4 billion.
Estimates put the sun's life around 8 billion years, so my guess is year 3,500,2030 AD!

[goingup]

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!

Good times! I clearly remember the SP500 interday low was 666. Memorable in the worst way.

[Independent George]

I am calling 1450. Panic is contagious, and the herd is stampeding for the exits right now. Hopefully I will still be employed when it happens, so I can keep loading up in my 401k when it bottoms out.

[SandraBumble]

Curious if the bears on this thread have been acting on their predictions in their investments?

[lutok]

If it doesn't bounce back from yesterday's lows, the correct answer is 2080 .

[hithere]

If this decline turns out to be a moderate recession and the inflation stays under control, I'd say the bottom will be around $1,500, but it can very well be closer to $1,000 or $2,000.

[latak215]

I believe that this is a knee jerk reaction for interest rate hike. fed believes economy is strong despite threats to free trade. Markets will normalse soon

[BoggledHead2]

Literally everyone I know that should "know" about the markets for their profession says the fundamentals are sound, recession not even on the radar, and basically this is end-of-year profit taking combined with trade war hysteria

If this "trade war" (so ridiculous) gets resolved, markets will explode [in a good way]

[3funder]

0 - 2,500!

[hithere]

I believe that this is a knee jerk reaction for interest rate hike. fed believes economy is strong despite threats to free trade. Markets will normalse soon

I presume that by "normalize" you mean that the S&P will go back up, but I find it kind of funny that S&P is already way above the historical "norm", so in order for the S&P to normalize, its value would not only not increase, but it would have to decrease significantly.

[renditt]

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!

Yes, I confess, it was probably the worst designed poll in the history of the bogleheads forum...

I want to point out that my own guess of 650 was very close to the 666 intraday low

[wsm111]

1864, which was the technical support level established Feb 8, 2016.

Same line of thinking, it might be low 2100s, which was the ceiling from Feb 2015 through May 2016